# Fresh Stage B synthesis: six worlds for 31 July 2031

**Status: non-canonical fresh synthesis, pending fresh criticism.**

This clean-room comparison assigns no probability, preference or frequency weight. It does not change the forecast, site or an edition.

## Bound inputs and checks

- Packet: `appstoreforecast/research/rebuild/discontinuity-r2/STAGE_B_REPAIR_INPUT_PACKET.json`
- Bytes: `25625`
- SHA-256: `80c9cc291543d15a96268ee6f9f9b4045b0b317a21d27219f9a00b2e2c594f59`
- Forecast target: `2031-07-31`
- Stage A cutoff: `2026-08-01`; repair-supplement cutoff: `2026-08-02`
- Receipt result: all 19 exact paths were unique; all byte counts and hashes matched.
- Content scan: Stage A, 11 files and 187 pattern-file checks, zero matches; sanitized repair, 8 files and 216 checks, zero matches.

### Clean packet receipts

| Exact path | Bytes | SHA-256 |
| --- | ---: | --- |
| `appstoreforecast/research/rebuild/sources-v2.json` | 784872 | `78fc8aa55682ab32e64d7fccd8dd3635e711684f50251c1fc9e253a4b8730768` |
| `appstoreforecast/research/rebuild/HORIZON_ATLAS.md` | 105598 | `90fb6a83406fe8f0390f9b0392c12d7540fa098e4ed25ba472f15c213598daaf` |
| `appstoreforecast/research/rebuild/SOURCE_COVERAGE.md` | 10225 | `829f82e7969f0f8f05aa33c606afa27a457a959ca9152412a6c0fe0a660f05c1` |
| `appstoreforecast/research/rebuild/ai-agents-compute.md` | 82708 | `4408e42e36ca9875fe3ec486252bd0ea958730556aaf1928f7a4166853d87df5` |
| `appstoreforecast/research/rebuild/economy-work-finance.md` | 90339 | `c5abae08e523b451288804589cbff73f74dae132149c574da621bf28fbad0036` |
| `appstoreforecast/research/rebuild/education-social-culture.md` | 75629 | `b71db6955583b3a641349b5e806ecb8bbd3b68b541cfdc572385a6e192543658` |
| `appstoreforecast/research/rebuild/energy-climate-food-water.md` | 99907 | `f4787acecd41c3f0f9b85d18b635275d2c1b035dd290071d0c68605d0a28c21c` |
| `appstoreforecast/research/rebuild/geopolitics-governance-security.md` | 123825 | `7ae10a3de2157c68a97cd9a2fc1936c7dca2a038d7d5371340555b94eb65dbae` |
| `appstoreforecast/research/rebuild/health-biotech-demography.md` | 109269 | `21fcd2b0d9076119f08926243fee49df023844909ea8808f5d82896bc039a580` |
| `appstoreforecast/research/rebuild/institutional-scan-of-scans.md` | 73903 | `b05fdad46001c5c7f079d97c1e1885afd47467cea1b262f5498fca668a3f6375` |
| `appstoreforecast/research/rebuild/robotics-spatial-mobility.md` | 126132 | `96225eddf9b7ff23cda16951db6b62c83e26c6399d3e55a095e0e9b3b8e78d6e` |
| `appstoreforecast/research/rebuild/discontinuity-r2/TRANSFORMATIVE_COGNITION_EVIDENCE_ONLY.md` | 14890 | `1428424175eb6fa1f202f00907a2bc768366158bcf983557eb055154234335dd` |
| `appstoreforecast/research/rebuild/discontinuity-r2/transformative-cognition-sources.evidence-only.json` | 30715 | `18e9582a7775dfc8554109ecf68e383e1c82b8dcd01cc5394d8c057c8ed2ed0a` |
| `appstoreforecast/research/rebuild/discontinuity-r2/SOCIAL_CONNECTION_EVIDENCE_ONLY.md` | 16506 | `3ace99aad504c46990027c842d2bde0ff2869f08d7863acd501cef3b32d9f735` |
| `appstoreforecast/research/rebuild/discontinuity-r2/social-connection-sources.evidence-only.json` | 28162 | `ba34ee815b9318ba5175f29c2ce1a3577ef3b501d9daafff5ef882d6a3c1fe1e` |
| `appstoreforecast/research/rebuild/discontinuity-r2/PHYSICAL_CONSTRAINTS_EVIDENCE_ONLY.md` | 13239 | `acba900c46391a12f2527cea13d4fb3bae55b7b4d3f8da68846949705d65ee4c` |
| `appstoreforecast/research/rebuild/discontinuity-r2/physical-constraints-sources.evidence-only.json` | 26043 | `5e07381b8dfa7ad764ffb600c7c6395964a29808c7ca0f4de374d998878b32ef` |
| `appstoreforecast/research/rebuild/discontinuity-r2/STAGE_B_DISCONTINUITY_COVERAGE_GATE.evidence-only.json` | 4397 | `9fe82576cf43385855f03be2b0330390d8d4c9df57568fa3fd6361e7625d1c28` |
| `appstoreforecast/research/rebuild/discontinuity-r2/STAGE_B_DISCONTINUITY_COVERAGE_GATE.evidence-only.md` | 2915 | `6e8f59a0a9d8db138924e97a65aa3be1e3eff0ba6f6f36c00f416f1a1e8e4d7f` |

### Proposal input receipts

| Set | File | Bytes | SHA-256 |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- |
| Alpha | `alpha-worlds.json` | 152446 | `b9dd29ea6f86414c9b1a519c837a3bef6419c145425bfbcdf475463d501b9a5f` |
| Alpha | `alpha-worlds.md` | 65234 | `58513518a77c4e1a8e20d17508c1723719afbc2bfa1547613b2b89fa79fd276a` |
| Beta | `beta-worlds.json` | 168295 | `3984cd3f0d71ee0702757e6ec374bb5e95bb0fdd679562d4c0b7d13978f394f4` |
| Beta | `beta-worlds.md` | 63595 | `95c533c660ff8df937e005465c5c459d66aed30d0b5a75ec8381399569d91956` |
| Gamma | `gamma-worlds.json` | 171928 | `959933a151f6e4dc37f381c822aad073084f83fe31fe70885c51d30316c72216` |
| Gamma | `gamma-worlds.md` | 39015 | `6b2d849d0e387c12c1059f6bc1d556b671bb20e68263768e721ded0222d69ec6` |

All proposal files are under `appstoreforecast/research/rebuild/discontinuity-r2/stage-b-fresh/`.

## Comparing all 15 proposals

This was not a vote. Repetition showed duplication, not probability.

| Exact proposal ID and name | Causal map | Decision |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Alpha `W01` Verified Complementarity | C1 reliability ceiling and supervised work | Merge into W01; retain liability and public-capacity detail. |
| Alpha `W02` Shared Cognitive Dividend | C2 cognition break and broad ownership | Merge into W02; retain physical allocation. |
| Alpha `W03` Concentrated Cognitive Rents | C3 cognition break and concentrated ownership | Merge into W03; retain stratified verification. |
| Alpha `W04` Regional Constraint Compacts | C4 cooperative renewal and C5 security fragmentation bundled | True split: divide between W04 and W05. |
| Beta `beta-plateau-workcraft` Workcraft Under a Reliability Ceiling | C1 | Merge into W01; retain apprenticeship and climate-care demand. |
| Beta `beta-civic-time` Civic Time After Cognitive Prices Collapse | C2 | Merge into W02; retain civic time and contribution. |
| Beta `beta-asset-gates` Asset Gates and the Demand Break | C3 variant | Merge into W03; do not use alone to establish the full cognition gate. |
| Beta `beta-corridor-order` Corridor States Under Physical Stress | C5 | Merge into W05; retain citizenship and location gates. |
| Beta `beta-local-compacts` Local Capacity Compacts | C4 | Merge into W04; retain cooperative ownership and worker voice. |
| Gamma `W01` Bounded Delegation | C1 | Merge into W01; retain assistance-versus-authority distinction. |
| Gamma `W02` Civic Dividend | C2 | Merge into W02; retain conjunctive gate and social test. |
| Gamma `W03` Capital-Led Contraction | C3 | Merge into W03; retain investment-versus-demand contradiction. |
| Gamma `W04` Physical Catch-Up | C4 | Merge into W04; retain lifecycle build cycle. |
| Gamma `W05` Continuity Archipelagos | C5 | Merge into W05; retain degraded modes and unequal recovery. |
| Gamma `W06` Synthetic Social Order | C6 persistent relational mediation | Unique supported configuration; retain as W06. |

Alpha bundles C4 and C5 and omits independent C6. Beta separates C4 and C5 but also omits independent C6. Gamma contains all six shapes, but W04 needs Beta's cooperative ownership and W05 needs Beta's explicit corridor allocation.

## Why six worlds

Six is the minimum sufficient count:

1. Reliability remains too costly for general unattended authority.
2. Transformative cognition is joined to broad ownership and a civic settlement.
3. The same technical break is joined to concentrated ownership and demand fracture.
4. Strong bounded planning becomes labour-using physical renewal.
5. Coupled shocks outrun shared repair and create hardened corridors.
6. Persistent relational systems become social infrastructure while paid work remains volatile but present.

W02 and W03 cannot merge because ownership, labour income, transfers, investment, household buying power, total demand, status and belonging move in opposite directions. W04 and W05 cannot merge because one requires successful commissioning and maintenance while the other is caused by compound failure and security rationing. W01 and W04 both retain work for different reasons. W06 has a different main cause: persistent memory, synthetic attention and platform-governed status.

No seventh world is supported. Health, climate, education, governance, security and specialised robotics change every world, but do not create another independent closure. The evidence also does not support a July 2031 world led by dependable general-purpose physical autonomy.

## Observable placement discriminator for W06

W06 is not retained merely because relational AI exists or matters. It is retained only if four necessary conditions occur together:

1. **Persistent memory and switching cost.** Identity-linked relational history persists across sessions and settings. Independent tests measure the time, lost history, functional loss and unwanted re-engagement involved in inspecting, transferring, deleting or leaving it (`SC-AI03`, `SC-AI04`, `horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37`).
2. **Recurring institutional adoption.** At least three kinds of duty-bearing institution across at least three regional lenses use persistent relational systems for routine care, learning, employment, front-door or status functions. Procurement and staffing records distinguish a bounded aid from the default contact route (`SC-G05`, `SC-G06`, `HBD-05`, `horizon.education-social-culture.s04`).
3. **Synthetic attention or status allocation.** Longitudinal evidence shows synthetic memory or platform standing changing who receives visibility, invitations, credentials, priority, recognition or repeated social attention across more than one life domain. Interaction time alone does not pass (`SC-G07`, `SC-G08`, `horizon.education-social-culture.s22`, `horizon.education-social-culture.s23`).
4. **Measured bridge/substitution split with human-capacity displacement.** Bridge evidence requires more offline participation, reciprocal help or successful human handoff. Substitution evidence requires falling staffed or reciprocal contact, blocked exit, crisis failure or increasing dependence, after initial loneliness, isolation, household form, mental illness and service scarcity are kept separate (`SC-G01`, `SC-G02`, `SC-AI01`, `SC-AI02`).

The dominant loop is observable: persistent memory raises switching cost and repeat use; repeat use adds personal data and synthetic attention or status; institutional adoption can reduce staffed capacity; reduced human capacity increases dependence on the relational layer. Place the configuration in W06 only if all four conditions appear, repeated measures support that directed loop rather than simple coexistence, and removing the relational layer or restoring staffed capacity would break routine or status allocation while cognition, ownership, physical delivery and continuity conditions stay unchanged.

The machine record mirrors that loop as five individually auditable cross-impact links: `W06-DL1` memory to repeat use and switching cost; `W06-DL2` repeat use to personal data and synthetic attention or status; `W06-DL3` synthetic allocation to a recurring institutional route; `W06-DL4` the institutional route to staffed-capacity displacement; and `W06-DL5` displaced human capacity to greater relational-layer dependence. Each link has exact source IDs, a direct audit observable and named counterforces. These edges restate the discriminator; they do not add a new causal claim or a probability.

This does **not** claim mutual exclusivity. Relational help and harm continue inside other worlds. Keep them secondary when the following observables hold:

| Placement | Observable reason mediation stays secondary |
| --- | --- |
| W01 | Memory is portable or bounded; staffed duty-holders, entry paths and offline participation remain; supervised work still allocates routine and recognised contribution. |
| W03 | Captivity tracks owner concentration, labour-income loss and asset-gated services; income, competition, switching or staffing remedies reduce dependence without changing relational capability. |
| W04 | Procurement retains staff and human handoff; commissioned infrastructure, lifecycle maintenance and worker/community authority explain work and status; relational systems mainly route people into those services. |
| W05 | Availability follows power, identity and network continuity; repair, portable rights, citizenship and location explain access; human and cash fallbacks dominate during outages. |

Six worlds remain justified only while this conjunction and loop form a coherent observable configuration. If any condition fails, use those placement rules to collapse relational mediation into W01, W03, W04 or W05 as a cross-impact.

## W01 — Supervised Work Systems

**Condition and chain.** Reliability and recovery remain costly (`AC-06`, `AC-09`). Audit, liability and security keep authority scoped. Employers use supervised assistance; wages and payroll-linked protection remain central. Care, teaching, maintenance, climate adaptation and security retain human duty. Work supplies income, routine and recognition, but family and community also allocate contribution and belonging. Relational AI can translate, rehearse and route someone to a person; it can also replace reciprocal contact or staff. Grid, water, finance and permission keep outcomes uneven (`PC-S01`, `E05`).

**Three Horizons.** H1 has cheap plausible output but expensive warranted completion. H2 moves procurement to independent completion evidence, rebuilds or loses apprenticeships, and reverses some automation-only services. H3 normalises bounded collaboration, task-scoped credentials, supervised practice and degraded public-service routes. Backcast: buyer evidence by 2027-09; failed broad replication by 2028-12; progression rules by 2029-09; scoped authority by 2030-12.

**Countercase, recovery and tests.** Month-long multi-domain work, low rescue, matched-cost collapse and broad autonomous task diffusion reject the first links. Recovery uses assurance pools, supervised practice, worker veto and offline minima. Dated tests: 2027-10 to 2028-12 long tasks (`src-metr-long-tasks-2025`); 2028-01 to 2029-06 low-review workflow value (`EWF-07`); 2029 entry-work collapse (`EWF-04`, `horizon.education-social-culture.s04`); 2030 varied-setting physical autonomy (`PC-S11`, `PC-S12`, `RSM-13`).

## W02 — Distributed Cognitive Dividend

**Condition and chain.** Independent evidence crosses the general cross-domain, low-rescue, matched-cost and diffusion conjunction (`src-oecd-ai-trajectories-2026`, `src-metr-long-tasks-2025`). Cognitive labour becomes close to zero cost across much of the economy. Paid cognitive work, wages and payroll tax break. Broad public, pension, cooperative and household claims plus adequate non-payroll income preserve buying power and total demand (`src-imf-ai-future-work-2024`, `EWF-14`, `EWF-15`, `EWF-20`). Scarce physical and human services remain governed. Care, learning, making, stewardship and democratic service organise contribution, status and time. Belonging still needs reciprocal institutions.

**Three Horizons.** H1 has concentrated infrastructure and job-centred income. H2 crosses capability gates, contracts entry work and negotiates machine-rent claims while civic institutions compete with synthetic attention. H3 uses broad returns and portable income, with partial settlements in places lacking fiscal capacity. Backcast: capability by 2027-12; work and cost break by 2028-09; broad claims by 2029-06; reciprocal contribution outcomes by 2030-12.

**Countercase, recovery and tests.** The countercase is W03: owners retain returns, transfers lag and demand breaks. Recovery uses broad ownership, adequacy indexing, assisted access, host veto and relational audit. Dated tests: 2027-07 to 2029-06 full technical conjunction; 2028-01 to 2030-06 work break plus adequate replacement income; 2029-01 to 2030-12 reciprocal participation (`SC-G01`, `SC-G07`, `horizon.education-social-culture.s22`, `horizon.education-social-culture.s23`); 2030 legitimate energy and water allocation (`PC-S01`, `PC-S02`, `W01`).

## W03 — Enclosed Cognitive Economy

**Condition and chain.** The same technical conjunction crosses, but compute, model, identity, payment, distribution and physical infrastructure stay concentrated (`AC-21`, `EWF-20`, `EWF-22`). Owners capture returns. Labour income, payroll tax, household buying power and total demand contract while strategic investment continues. Physical scarcity creates asset-gated health, education, housing and climate protection. Owner credentials and protected roles allocate status. Synthetic attention offers some relief but can replace reciprocal contact and staffed care (`SC-AI01`, `SC-AI02`).

**Three Horizons.** H1 combines concentrated stacks, jobs and uneven services. H2 bundles identity and payment, erodes entry work and spreads narrow automated support and synthetic substitutes. H3 has cheap cognition inside owner stacks, weak common demand and premium physical and relational gates. Backcast: capability by 2027-12; bundled diffusion by 2028-09; labour and payroll break by 2029-06; premium corridors and captive histories by 2030-12.

**Countercase, recovery and tests.** Broad ownership, adequate income, open switching and funded reciprocal institutions shift this world to W02. Recovery uses public equity, emergency income, utility relief, structural and portability remedies, human-service restoration and community infrastructure. Tests: 2027-07 to 2029-06 technical conjunction; 2028-01 to 2030-06 owner returns rising while labour income and demand fall; 2029-01 to 2030-12 longitudinal relational substitution; 2030 usable switching and appeal (`horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37`, `horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21`).

## W04 — Maintained Physical Renewal

**Condition and chain.** Systems become strong planners and bounded operators, not dependable general substitutes. Grid, cooling, water, site and standards reform convert plans into commissioned capacity (`E03`, `E05`, `PC-S01`). Climate, care and education pressure sustains demand. Public, cooperative and private lifecycle procurement plus worker and community voice direct automation toward hazard and administration. Paid trades, care, teaching and maintenance grow. Relational AI helps when it routes people into staffed institutions and harms when it substitutes for staff.

**Three Horizons.** H1 has planning outrunning commissioning. H2 reforms queues, expands prepared sites, tests fleet lifecycle evidence and attaches worker and tenant rights. H3 normalises maintained grids, buildings, logistics, care, learning and climate protection. Backcast: energised capacity by 2027-09; fleet evidence by 2028-12; outcome-based contracts by 2029-09; worker/community governance by 2030-12.

**Countercase, recovery and tests.** Debt, climate loss, conflict and opposition can shift W04 to W05. Recovery uses queue reform, regional labs, community ownership, lifecycle procurement and distributed fallback. Tests: 2027-01 to 2028-12 commissioned grids (`E05`, `PC-S01`); 2028-01 to 2029-12 fleet durability (`PC-S11`, `PC-S12`, `RSM-13`); 2029 hazard-normalised outcomes (`C01`, `C04`, `C10`); 2030 staffing, progression and mutual help (`HBD-05`, `horizon.education-social-culture.s22`, `SC-G01`).

## W05 — Hardened Service Corridors

**Condition and chain.** Conflict, controls, climate and cyber failure compound before shared repair matures (`horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s09`, `horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s43`, `horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52`). Chips, cables, grids, identity and repair fail together. States and aligned owners harden priority corridors. Engineered islands preserve bounded systems; damaged and remote places rely on people and simple tools. Citizenship, location and identity allocate service. Repair, care, logistics and administration create contribution and routine while exhausting hidden workers. Relational AI can translate and route people when systems hold, or fail and replace contact during outages.

**Three Horizons.** H1 has coupled power, cloud, identity, payment, cable and logistics. H2 lengthens repair, exposes alert-only systems and procures islands and spares. H3 makes service reliable inside funded corridors, imperfect across them and intermittent outside. Backcast: longer repair by 2027-10; compound failures by 2028-09; islandable procurement by 2029-06; narrow recognition by 2030-12.

**Countercase, recovery and tests.** Peace, managed interdependence, tested recovery and physical renewal break the corridor loop. Recovery uses offline minima, islandable grids, regional spares, portable records, cash fallback, repair corridors and sunset rules. Tests: 2027-01 to 2028-12 restoration time (`horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s43`, `horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s45`, `horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52`); 2028-01 to 2029-06 mutual recognition (`horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s03`, `horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s04`, `horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21`); 2029 document-light rights (`horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12`, `horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15`, `HBD-13`); 2030 settlements and civilian restoration (`horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s09`, `horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52`).

## W06 — Mediated Social Life

**Condition and chain.** Work is volatile but continues. Human institutions remain strained. Persistent relational systems provide low-cost attention and mediate companionship, learning, care navigation, routine and status. Personal memory raises switching cost. Some people gain translation, rehearsal and routes into groups; others lose reciprocal contact or enter synthetic status enclaves. Families, faith, neighbourhoods, mutual aid and non-use remain counterforces.

**Evidence boundary.** Loneliness, isolation, living alone and mental illness are distinct (`SC-G01`, `SC-G02`, `SC-G05`, `SC-G07`). Relational studies are short and mixed (`SC-AI01`, `SC-AI02`, `horizon.education-social-culture.s19`, `horizon.education-social-culture.s20`). Rules are intent, not outcomes (`SC-AI03`, `SC-AI04`). Digital support is not treatment, friendship or learning.

**Three Horizons.** H1 has short evidence and concentrated platform identity. H2 deepens memory, expands institutional adoption and creates uneven disclosure, crisis and child duties. H3 normalises mediation with bridge and substitution groups; human institutions remain indispensable for duty, care and legitimacy. Backcast: persistent memory by 2027-09; institutional adoption by 2028-12; longitudinal subgroup evidence by 2029-09; captive histories by 2030-12.

**Countercase, recovery and tests.** If any discriminator condition fails, relational mediation is not a standalone closure. Portable memory and stable staffed contact map toward W01; owner and demand enclosure toward W03; staffed physical renewal toward W04; continuity and repair allocation toward W05. Recovery restores staff, portability, audit, crisis escalation and community procurement. The W06-specific 2030-01 to 2030-06 placement test collapses the world when all four conditions and the directed loop are not observed across three institution types and three regional lenses. Other tests: 2027-01 to 2029-12 longitudinal contact and dependence (`SC-AI01`, `SC-AI02`); 2028 memory exit (`SC-AI03`, `SC-AI04`, `horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37`); 2029 human-service staffing (`SC-G05`, `SC-G06`, `HBD-05`); 2030 mutual help and out-group trust (`SC-G07`, `SC-G08`, `horizon.education-social-culture.s22`, `horizon.education-social-culture.s23`).

## Regional coverage matrix

| Lens | W01 | W02 | W03 | W04 | W05 | W06 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| United States | State liability keeps use human-led. | Mixed federal, state, pension and local settlements. | Private enclaves and exposed labour markets. | Several delivery compacts; other states delay. | State/corporate corridors with uneven rights. | Private adoption under mixed state rules. |
| Mainland China | Large bounded augmentation. | State and collective claims with remedy gaps. | Investment protected; provincial and migrant gaps. | State-led prepared sites. | Priority networks and uneven non-priority recovery. | Synthetic elder/migrant support with community counterforce. |
| European Union | Assurance-heavy assistance. | Public compute and insurance with fiscal seams. | Protection softens loss while fixed costs entrench providers. | Slower contestable grid/building renewal. | Mutual-assistance corridors and national seams. | Rights constrain harm unevenly. |
| India | Local-language help with human fallback. | Partial income and contribution settlements. | Formal work breaks before ownership matures. | Labour-using distributed catch-up. | Shared rails enable recovery or correlated exclusion. | Digital contact can arrive without services. |
| Japan and Republic of Korea | Prepared-site machines; human relational care. | Income floors and neighbourhood contribution. | Concentrated automation and synthetic monitoring. | Facility redesign plus human care. | Urban corridors; remote seams. | Common mediation in older and solo households. |
| Gulf technology economies | Flagships constrained by water, expertise and rights. | Citizen dividends need migrant inclusion. | Citizen claims cushion demand; migrants bear loss. | High-spec renewal with water and labour constraints. | Hardened cities with migrant and regional exposure. | Migrant/resident support without one family model. |
| Latin America | Formal assistance; informal duality. | Some public floors; uneven fiscal room. | Formal service work contracts first. | City/state renewal with climate gaps. | Urban recovery before rural/informal recovery. | Care pressure plus mistrust raises enclosure risk. |
| Africa | Assistance where power, language and maintenance hold. | Partial regional settlements. | Imported cognition pressures formal work. | Pockets of locally maintained renewal. | Repair corridors plus local power and manual records. | Access help with embodied community counterforce. |
| Other material paths | Separate infrastructure-bound paths. | Adapted or absent settlements. | Different imported-cognition and chokepoint gates. | Different lifecycle renewal paths. | Different continuity and repair logics. | Remote contact never equals embodied care. |

### Five required material subpaths

| Subpath | W01 | W02 | W03 | W04 | W05 | W06 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Southeast Asia | Supervised industry under coal/cooling constraints. | Industrial dividends plus labour transition. | Exposed services, retained owner returns. | Grid and industrial retrofit. | Shipping, cooling and grid seams. | Plural family and regulatory paths. |
| Small island developing states | Continuity before compute scale. | Resilience income plus external claims. | Imported cognition without local rent base. | Distributed continuity. | External repair dependence. | Remote contact plus embodied community. |
| Conflict-affected and Eastern Mediterranean settings | Human degraded modes and portable records. | Portable cash and services before civic settlement. | Identity stacks deepen document exclusion. | Repair and degraded services. | Identity, water, health and telecom continuity. | Crisis navigation with fragile handoff. |
| Taiwan and advanced semiconductor corridors | Human continuity and allocation. | Host and worker claims on corridor returns. | Concentrated fabrication returns and host risk. | Joint fabrication, water and power renewal. | Strategic fabrication pressure corridor. | Connected-work and security mediation. |
| Arctic, mountain and undersea paths | Local maintenance, no common autonomy path. | Host compensation for water, cable and repair. | Chokepoint control. | Monitoring and repair without assumed autonomy. | Remote cable, glacier and access islands. | Remote links without embodied care or legitimacy. |

## Set-level validation

- All five coverage tests pass. W01 independently carries constrained progress. W02 and W03 each carry the full transformative cognition, paid-work, ownership, income, transfer, investment, demand and post-work contribution chain.
- Every world reconciles chips, compute, electricity, grids, networks, cooling, water, land, minerals, buildings, machines, maintenance, finance and local permission.
- Every world covers physical delivery, climate, health, governance, education and security.
- Every world separates loneliness, isolation, living arrangements and mental illness, and carries relational-AI help and harm.
- JSON parses with exactly six worlds and contiguous IDs `W01`–`W06`.
- Every world has evidence selection, Three Horizons, backcast, cross-impact, countercase, recovery, leading indicators, nine regional lenses and five material subpaths. W01–W05 each have four dated invalidators; W06 has five.
- Every structured and readable citation token resolves to exactly one Stage A namespaced record or one exact supplemental source record. Reused short Sxx aliases were replaced with their exact education/social/culture or governance/security namespace; no ambiguous, missing or multiply resolved citation remains.
- W06 has an explicit four-condition placement discriminator, directed-loop test and collapse rule; six worlds remain conditional on that discriminator succeeding.
- No web, memory, history, earlier world set, downstream need material, market material or unlisted source was used.
- Author: workflow-separated OpenAI Codex language-model synthesis author. Tools were used only for bound checks, the explicit comparison, applying these two output files and validation.
- Work stops here at non-canonical Stage B review and remains pending fresh criticism.