{ "schemaVersion": 1, "contractVersion": "dynamic-stage-c-synthesis-v1", "inputBinding": { "authorInputs": [ { "assignment": { "path": "research/rebuild/discontinuity-r2/stage-c-fresh/author-a-assignment.json", "bytes": 2213, "sha256": "02d01e4bfe21192b849aa2fcd18d4acde20b919d76301262196de331fbd02a10" }, "authorOutput": { "path": "research/rebuild/discontinuity-r2/stage-c-fresh/author-a-contract.json", "bytes": 161419, "sha256": "43443a29f37992740f3f317e3d3a751e82c7fa5b5e30c682f7ef88328acdbf66" } }, { "assignment": { "path": "research/rebuild/discontinuity-r2/stage-c-fresh/author-b-assignment.json", "bytes": 2135, "sha256": "595f5d3589c4ec0daf2857ecba78920cfd51d1f8043c5f43db9abf7d6ca503b5" }, "authorOutput": { "path": "research/rebuild/discontinuity-r2/stage-c-fresh/author-b-contract.json", "bytes": 162766, "sha256": "5664d80de8d876ac682849c3197ce448faca623a2d18056e44dbf33670b4add4" } }, { "assignment": { "path": "research/rebuild/discontinuity-r2/stage-c-fresh/author-c-assignment.json", "bytes": 2329, "sha256": "9399196af36ee7929b2ea89f0040ee0d3fe64a38961e5f0d0562e39191cb6198" }, "authorOutput": { "path": "research/rebuild/discontinuity-r2/stage-c-fresh/author-c-contract.json", "bytes": 116797, "sha256": "6950b2f00eb46ae8107455d1c439cea5fbd27a7173076fcc2e071dda589d619a" } } ], "bindingSha256": "0592bb41fe1d1c5d3e39d35bcd08c7948bd1835902a5b156bce8394f1997874e" }, "changedActors": [ { "id": "changed-actor-001", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-a-actor-01" ], "actorOrPerson": "Workers who still answer for work that machines help prepare or check", "whatChangesBy2031": "Machines may draft or check more of the job. These workers still judge the setting, handle hard cases, approve the work, and answer for harm. Help without real control could mean more tracking and pressure.", "worldIds": [ "w01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "AC-06", "AC-09", "EWF-07", "SC-WORK-01" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-actor-01", "actorOrPerson": "Workers who still answer for work that machines help prepare or check", "whatChangesBy2031": "Machines may draft or check more of the job. These workers still judge the setting, handle hard cases, approve the work, and answer for harm. Help without real control could mean more tracking and pressure.", "worldIds": [ "W01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "AC-06", "AC-09", "EWF-07", "SC-WORK-01" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-002", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-a-actor-02" ], "actorOrPerson": "Young workers, people changing careers, and apprentices", "whatChangesBy2031": "Machines may do more first drafts. Employers will still need people who can check work and fix mistakes. Paid practice with a skilled guide must keep the path into expert work open.", "worldIds": [ "w01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "src-ilo-exposure-indicators-2026" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-actor-02", "actorOrPerson": "Young workers, people changing careers, and apprentices", "whatChangesBy2031": "Machines may do more first drafts. Employers will still need people who can check work and fix mistakes. Paid practice with a skilled guide must keep the path into expert work open.", "worldIds": [ "W01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "src-ilo-exposure-indicators-2026" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-003", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-a-actor-03" ], "actorOrPerson": "Outside testers, reviewers, insurers, incident teams, and appeal staff", "whatChangesBy2031": "Safe use will rely more on outside tests, reviews, insurance, incident work, and appeals. Too few skilled reviewers, high fees, or close ties to suppliers could block safe use.", "worldIds": [ "w01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "AC-09", "EWF-07", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "RSM-13" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-actor-03", "actorOrPerson": "Outside testers, reviewers, insurers, incident teams, and appeal staff", "whatChangesBy2031": "Safe use will rely more on outside tests, reviews, insurance, incident work, and appeals. Too few skilled reviewers, high fees, or close ties to suppliers could block safe use.", "worldIds": [ "W01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "AC-09", "EWF-07", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "RSM-13" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-004", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-a-actor-04" ], "actorOrPerson": "Employers and public buyers", "whatChangesBy2031": "They need to buy work that can be checked and fixed, not just smooth-looking output. They must choose whether savings protect staff and training or raise tracking and workload.", "worldIds": [ "w01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-07", "RSM-13", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-actor-04", "actorOrPerson": "Employers and public buyers", "whatChangesBy2031": "They need to buy work that can be checked and fixed, not just smooth-looking output. They must choose whether savings protect staff and training or raise tracking and workload.", "worldIds": [ "W01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-07", "RSM-13", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-005", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-a-actor-05" ], "actorOrPerson": "Teachers, learners, and groups that accept proof of learning", "whatChangesBy2031": "Easy answers make finished work a weak proof of learning. In W01, learners need guided paid work. In W02, learning must also help people take useful roles outside a standard job.", "worldIds": [ "w01", "w02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-actor-05", "actorOrPerson": "Teachers, learners, and groups that accept proof of learning", "whatChangesBy2031": "Easy answers make finished work a weak proof of learning. In W01, learners need guided paid work. In W02, learning must also help people take useful roles outside a standard job.", "worldIds": [ "W01", "W02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-006", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-a-actor-06" ], "actorOrPerson": "Patients, disabled people, unpaid carers, and care teams", "whatChangesBy2031": "More alerts, notes, and remote contact may arrive without care or hands-on help. The scarce part is often a funded person or team that can respond.", "worldIds": [ "w01", "w02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-actor-06", "actorOrPerson": "Patients, disabled people, unpaid carers, and care teams", "whatChangesBy2031": "More alerts, notes, and remote contact may arrive without care or hands-on help. The scarce part is often a funded person or team that can respond.", "worldIds": [ "W01", "W02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-007", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-a-actor-07" ], "actorOrPerson": "Power and water firms, repair teams, planners, and people near major sites", "whatChangesBy2031": "Power, water, land, links, buildings, and upkeep set real limits on online plans. Nearby people may bear costs while distant owners gain income.", "worldIds": [ "w01", "w02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "C04", "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-actor-07", "actorOrPerson": "Power and water firms, repair teams, planners, and people near major sites", "whatChangesBy2031": "Power, water, land, links, buildings, and upkeep set real limits on online plans. Nearby people may bear costs while distant owners gain income.", "worldIds": [ "W01", "W02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "C04", "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-008", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-a-actor-08" ], "actorOrPerson": "Rural users, disabled users, minority-language users, and groups with few staff or funds", "whatChangesBy2031": "They may face higher prices or machine-led choices before they get useful help, income, or a fair review. An always-online route will not fit everyone.", "worldIds": [ "w01", "w02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "AC-36", "EWF-05", "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "PC-S01" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-actor-08", "actorOrPerson": "Rural users, disabled users, minority-language users, and groups with few staff or funds", "whatChangesBy2031": "They may face higher prices or machine-led choices before they get useful help, income, or a fair review. An always-online route will not fit everyone.", "worldIds": [ "W01", "W02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "AC-36", "EWF-05", "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "PC-S01" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-009", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-a-actor-09" ], "actorOrPerson": "People whose paid knowledge work falls sharply", "whatChangesBy2031": "They may lose more than pay. A job can also give a routine, skills, contact, and a public role. Income, useful work, time, and feeling included then become separate needs.", "worldIds": [ "w02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "SC-WORK-01", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024", "src-oecd-ai-trajectories-2026" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-actor-09", "actorOrPerson": "People whose paid knowledge work falls sharply", "whatChangesBy2031": "They may lose more than pay. A job can also give a routine, skills, contact, and a public role. Income, useful work, time, and feeling included then become separate needs.", "worldIds": [ "W02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "SC-WORK-01", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024", "src-oecd-ai-trajectories-2026" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-010", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-a-actor-10" ], "actorOrPerson": "Families and staff who manage income paid outside jobs", "whatChangesBy2031": "Regular spending power may rely less on pay from jobs. It may rely more on support that is fair, easy to move, and easy to fix. Fast payment does not solve missing cover or weak public funds.", "worldIds": [ "w02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-actor-10", "actorOrPerson": "Families and staff who manage income paid outside jobs", "whatChangesBy2031": "Regular spending power may rely less on pay from jobs. It may rely more on support that is fair, easy to move, and easy to fix. Fast payment does not solve missing cover or weak public funds.", "worldIds": [ "W02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-011", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-a-actor-11" ], "actorOrPerson": "Public bodies, pension funds, co-ops, families, and private owners of machine systems and buildings", "whatChangesBy2031": "Who owns machine systems may shape family income and public funds. A few large owners could still keep most of the gains.", "worldIds": [ "w02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-20", "EWF-22", "PC-S01", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-actor-11", "actorOrPerson": "Public bodies, pension funds, co-ops, families, and private owners of machine systems and buildings", "whatChangesBy2031": "Who owns machine systems may shape family income and public funds. A few large owners could still keep most of the gains.", "worldIds": [ "W02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-20", "EWF-22", "PC-S01", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-012", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-a-actor-12" ], "actorOrPerson": "Families, faith groups, neighbourhoods, mutual-aid groups, and civic leaders", "whatChangesBy2031": "They still offer two-way help and a sense of place. In W02, they may help more people find valued roles. Taking part must stay a choice.", "worldIds": [ "w01", "w02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "SC-G08" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-actor-12", "actorOrPerson": "Families, faith groups, neighbourhoods, mutual-aid groups, and civic leaders", "whatChangesBy2031": "They still offer two-way help and a sense of place. In W02, they may help more people find valued roles. Taking part must stay a choice.", "worldIds": [ "W01", "W02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "SC-G08" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-013", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-a-actor-13" ], "actorOrPerson": "Unpaid carers, local repair teams, and people who care for land and nature", "whatChangesBy2031": "Their hands-on work may gain more notice in W02. Credit could bring help. Tracking or pressure could also add work. The assigned proof does not show who bears unpaid care now.", "worldIds": [ "w01", "w02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "HBD-05" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-actor-13", "actorOrPerson": "Unpaid carers, local repair teams, and people who care for land and nature", "whatChangesBy2031": "Their hands-on work may gain more notice in W02. Credit could bring help. Tracking or pressure could also add work. The assigned proof does not show who bears unpaid care now.", "worldIds": [ "W01", "W02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "HBD-05" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-014", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-a-actor-14" ], "actorOrPerson": "People who use digital support tools and the staff behind them", "whatChangesBy2031": "A tool may help someone practise, translate, or reach a person. It may also replace real contact or staff. Saved records, pressure, crisis help, and exit rules create new duties.", "worldIds": [ "w01", "w02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "SC-G05" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-actor-14", "actorOrPerson": "People who use digital support tools and the staff behind them", "whatChangesBy2031": "A tool may help someone practise, translate, or reach a person. It may also replace real contact or staff. Saved records, pressure, crisis help, and exit rules create new duties.", "worldIds": [ "W01", "W02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "SC-G05" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-015", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-a-actor-15" ], "actorOrPerson": "Courts, regulators, expert bodies, and local public bodies", "whatChangesBy2031": "In W01, they keep a named person in charge and a real way to fix harm. In W02, they also set rules for shared income, useful work, scarce resources, and the right to say no.", "worldIds": [ "w01", "w02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "AC-30", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "SC-AI04" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-actor-15", "actorOrPerson": "Courts, regulators, expert bodies, and local public bodies", "whatChangesBy2031": "In W01, they keep a named person in charge and a real way to fix harm. In W02, they also set rules for shared income, useful work, scarce resources, and the right to say no.", "worldIds": [ "W01", "W02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "AC-30", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "SC-AI04" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-016", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-a-actor-16" ], "actorOrPerson": "People in places with weak networks, tight public funds, or little local income from machine systems", "whatChangesBy2031": "They may face changes to work before local income or services improve. W02 may be weak or absent where networks are weak, public funds are tight, or local services lack staff and supplies. This is a possible W02 path, not a result shown by the assigned proof.", "worldIds": [ "w01", "w02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "AC-36", "EWF-05", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "PC-S01" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-actor-16", "actorOrPerson": "People in places with weak networks, tight public funds, or little local income from machine systems", "whatChangesBy2031": "They may face changes to work before local income or services improve. W02 may be weak or absent where networks are weak, public funds are tight, or local services lack staff and supplies. This is a possible W02 path, not a result shown by the assigned proof.", "worldIds": [ "W01", "W02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "AC-36", "EWF-05", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "PC-S01" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-017", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-b-actor-b-001" ], "actorOrPerson": "Competition authority, data regulator and public-interest enforcer", "whatChangesBy2031": "The regulator moves from reviewing separate model, cloud or payment markets to testing a bundled compute-model-identity-payment-distribution gate.", "worldIds": [ "w03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "AC-21", "EWF-20", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-actor-b-001", "actorOrPerson": "Competition authority, data regulator and public-interest enforcer", "whatChangesBy2031": "The regulator moves from reviewing separate model, cloud or payment markets to testing a bundled compute-model-identity-payment-distribution gate.", "worldIds": [ "W03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "AC-21", "EWF-20", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-018", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-b-actor-b-002" ], "actorOrPerson": "Fiscal, social-protection and local-revenue authority", "whatChangesBy2031": "The authority must respond to a machine-return and labour-income split, not only an ordinary short unemployment shock.", "worldIds": [ "w03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024", "EWF-14", "EWF-15" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-actor-b-002", "actorOrPerson": "Fiscal, social-protection and local-revenue authority", "whatChangesBy2031": "The authority must respond to a machine-return and labour-income split, not only an ordinary short unemployment shock.", "worldIds": [ "W03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024", "EWF-14", "EWF-15" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-019", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-b-actor-b-003" ], "actorOrPerson": "Public eligibility and essential-service authority", "whatChangesBy2031": "The service authority inherits higher-volume automated eligibility while fiscal pressure makes false exclusion more damaging and human review scarcer.", "worldIds": [ "w03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-actor-b-003", "actorOrPerson": "Public eligibility and essential-service authority", "whatChangesBy2031": "The service authority inherits higher-volume automated eligibility while fiscal pressure makes false exclusion more damaging and human review scarcer.", "worldIds": [ "W03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-020", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-b-actor-b-004" ], "actorOrPerson": "Energy, water, land, minerals and infrastructure regulator with host-community authority", "whatChangesBy2031": "The allocator must govern a bundled compute and premium-corridor load whose benefits and grid, water, land and supply-chain costs fall on different people.", "worldIds": [ "w03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-actor-b-004", "actorOrPerson": "Energy, water, land, minerals and infrastructure regulator with host-community authority", "whatChangesBy2031": "The allocator must govern a bundled compute and premium-corridor load whose benefits and grid, water, land and supply-chain costs fall on different people.", "worldIds": [ "W03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-021", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-b-actor-b-005" ], "actorOrPerson": "School, college, employer and professional-training authority", "whatChangesBy2031": "The education-to-work gatekeeper must create progression after cheap cognition removes many junior tasks and owner credentials begin allocating status.", "worldIds": [ "w03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-actor-b-005", "actorOrPerson": "School, college, employer and professional-training authority", "whatChangesBy2031": "The education-to-work gatekeeper must create progression after cheap cognition removes many junior tasks and owner credentials begin allocating status.", "worldIds": [ "W03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-022", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-b-actor-b-006" ], "actorOrPerson": "Health, mental-health and social-care commissioner", "whatChangesBy2031": "The commissioner must resist substituting synthetic attention for scarce staff while using bounded translation, rehearsal and navigation where it helps.", "worldIds": [ "w03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-actor-b-006", "actorOrPerson": "Health, mental-health and social-care commissioner", "whatChangesBy2031": "The commissioner must resist substituting synthetic attention for scarce staff while using bounded translation, rehearsal and navigation where it helps.", "worldIds": [ "W03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-023", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-b-actor-b-007" ], "actorOrPerson": "A household hit by cognitive-work displacement", "whatChangesBy2031": "The person moves from earning and belonging through paid cognitive work to navigating weak income, new contribution routes and owner-controlled status.", "worldIds": [ "w03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024", "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "SC-G07" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-actor-b-007", "actorOrPerson": "A household hit by cognitive-work displacement", "whatChangesBy2031": "The person moves from earning and belonging through paid cognitive work to navigating weak income, new contribution routes and owner-controlled status.", "worldIds": [ "W03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024", "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "SC-G07" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-024", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-b-actor-b-008" ], "actorOrPerson": "A renter or low-asset household in an exposed place", "whatChangesBy2031": "The resident becomes an applicant across asset-, location-, insurance- and credential-gated physical services as common provision weakens.", "worldIds": [ "w03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "C04", "C10", "HBD-05" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-actor-b-008", "actorOrPerson": "A renter or low-asset household in an exposed place", "whatChangesBy2031": "The resident becomes an applicant across asset-, location-, insurance- and credential-gated physical services as common provision weakens.", "worldIds": [ "W03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "C04", "C10", "HBD-05" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-025", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-b-actor-b-009" ], "actorOrPerson": "A learner, worker or service applicant facing owner credentials", "whatChangesBy2031": "The person must prove competence and identity across linked private gates rather than to one employer, school or service.", "worldIds": [ "w03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-20", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-actor-b-009", "actorOrPerson": "A learner, worker or service applicant facing owner credentials", "whatChangesBy2031": "The person must prove competence and identity across linked private gates rather than to one employer, school or service.", "worldIds": [ "W03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-20", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-026", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-b-actor-b-010" ], "actorOrPerson": "A person using a persistent relational system", "whatChangesBy2031": "The person becomes dependent on a memory-bearing gate that may also mediate care, identity, status and service access.", "worldIds": [ "w03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-actor-b-010", "actorOrPerson": "A person using a persistent relational system", "whatChangesBy2031": "The person becomes dependent on a memory-bearing gate that may also mediate care, identity, status and service access.", "worldIds": [ "W03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-027", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-b-actor-b-011" ], "actorOrPerson": "A frontline worker or volunteer who catches a service failure", "whatChangesBy2031": "In W03, this person may face more exceptions and crisis handoffs as automated services expand and staffed routes stay scarce. The assigned sources show service strain and AI safety duties; they do not directly measure moderator, data-worker or mutual-aid workloads.", "worldIds": [ "w03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "SC-G06", "SC-AI04" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-actor-b-011", "actorOrPerson": "A frontline worker or volunteer who catches a service failure", "whatChangesBy2031": "In W03, this person may face more exceptions and crisis handoffs as automated services expand and staffed routes stay scarce. The assigned sources show service strain and AI safety duties; they do not directly measure moderator, data-worker or mutual-aid workloads.", "worldIds": [ "W03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "SC-G06", "SC-AI04" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-028", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-b-actor-b-012" ], "actorOrPerson": "A person with weak, missing or mismatched records at a linked service gate", "whatChangesBy2031": "In W03, one record error may block several linked payments or services at once. The assigned sources support gaps in social protection and digital identity governance, but not a specific claim about migrants, citizenship or employer-tied identity.", "worldIds": [ "w03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "HBD-05" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-actor-b-012", "actorOrPerson": "A person with weak, missing or mismatched records at a linked service gate", "whatChangesBy2031": "In W03, one record error may block several linked payments or services at once. The assigned sources support gaps in social protection and digital identity governance, but not a specific claim about migrants, citizenship or employer-tied identity.", "worldIds": [ "W03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "HBD-05" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-029", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-b-actor-b-013" ], "actorOrPerson": "Utility, grid planner and connection commissioner", "whatChangesBy2031": "The planner moves from counting capacity and reservations to proving commissioned, usable networks for competing compute, housing, climate and service loads.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "E03", "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-actor-b-013", "actorOrPerson": "Utility, grid planner and connection commissioner", "whatChangesBy2031": "The planner moves from counting capacity and reservations to proving commissioned, usable networks for competing compute, housing, climate and service loads.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "E03", "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-030", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-b-actor-b-014" ], "actorOrPerson": "Public, cooperative or regulated infrastructure buyer", "whatChangesBy2031": "The buyer must purchase safe service, staffing, repair and renewal over time rather than a one-off asset or automated demonstration.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S11", "PC-S12", "RSM-13", "HBD-16" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-actor-b-014", "actorOrPerson": "Public, cooperative or regulated infrastructure buyer", "whatChangesBy2031": "The buyer must purchase safe service, staffing, repair and renewal over time rather than a one-off asset or automated demonstration.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S11", "PC-S12", "RSM-13", "HBD-16" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-031", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-b-actor-b-015" ], "actorOrPerson": "Safety body, fleet operator and insurer or procurer", "whatChangesBy2031": "The assessor evaluates bounded fleets over years and varied settings, including human rescue, damage and recovery, rather than accepting vendor task-success results.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S11", "PC-S12", "RSM-13", "HBD-16" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-actor-b-015", "actorOrPerson": "Safety body, fleet operator and insurer or procurer", "whatChangesBy2031": "The assessor evaluates bounded fleets over years and varied settings, including human rescue, damage and recovery, rather than accepting vendor task-success results.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S11", "PC-S12", "RSM-13", "HBD-16" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-032", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-b-actor-b-016" ], "actorOrPerson": "Regional assurance lab, standards body and public buyer", "whatChangesBy2031": "The body shifts from publishing intent to running shared evidence, recognition and correction routes across bounded physical systems and local suppliers.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "HBD-16", "PC-S09", "PC-S10" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-actor-b-016", "actorOrPerson": "Regional assurance lab, standards body and public buyer", "whatChangesBy2031": "The body shifts from publishing intent to running shared evidence, recognition and correction routes across bounded physical systems and local suppliers.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "HBD-16", "PC-S09", "PC-S10" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-033", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-b-actor-b-017" ], "actorOrPerson": "Climate-adaptation authority, municipality and funder", "whatChangesBy2031": "The authority moves from announcing plans and spending totals to showing that funded projects actually reduce harm for exposed residents and still work after bad weather.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "C01", "C04", "C10", "E05" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-actor-b-017", "actorOrPerson": "Climate-adaptation authority, municipality and funder", "whatChangesBy2031": "The authority moves from announcing plans and spending totals to showing that funded projects actually reduce harm for exposed residents and still work after bad weather.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "C01", "C04", "C10", "E05" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-034", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-b-actor-b-018" ], "actorOrPerson": "Health and care system commissioner", "whatChangesBy2031": "The commissioner uses planning and bounded tools to support staff, while staffing, clinical responsibility, consent and accessible appeal remain the service core.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "HBD-16", "SC-G05", "SC-AI02" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-actor-b-018", "actorOrPerson": "Health and care system commissioner", "whatChangesBy2031": "The commissioner uses planning and bounded tools to support staff, while staffing, clinical responsibility, consent and accessible appeal remain the service core.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "HBD-16", "SC-G05", "SC-AI02" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-035", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-b-actor-b-019" ], "actorOrPerson": "Education, skills and apprenticeship authority", "whatChangesBy2031": "The authority directs strong planning toward teachers, workshops, placements and trade pathways rather than synthetic-only instruction or generated task completion.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s05", "EWF-04" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-actor-b-019", "actorOrPerson": "Education, skills and apprenticeship authority", "whatChangesBy2031": "The authority directs strong planning toward teachers, workshops, placements and trade pathways rather than synthetic-only instruction or generated task completion.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s05", "EWF-04" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-036", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-b-actor-b-020" ], "actorOrPerson": "Regional fund, treasury, municipality and cooperative capital steward", "whatChangesBy2031": "The steward must balance debt and competing demands while funding staff, maintenance and fallback beyond construction.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-02", "C04", "E05", "PC-S01" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-actor-b-020", "actorOrPerson": "Regional fund, treasury, municipality and cooperative capital steward", "whatChangesBy2031": "The steward must balance debt and competing demands while funding staff, maintenance and fallback beyond construction.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-02", "C04", "E05", "PC-S01" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-037", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-b-actor-b-021" ], "actorOrPerson": "A trade worker, line crew member, technician or maintainer", "whatChangesBy2031": "The worker becomes a central capacity asset and evidence source rather than a low-status exception layer behind automation.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "E05", "PC-S11", "PC-S12", "RSM-13", "HBD-16" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-actor-b-021", "actorOrPerson": "A trade worker, line crew member, technician or maintainer", "whatChangesBy2031": "The worker becomes a central capacity asset and evidence source rather than a low-status exception layer behind automation.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "E05", "PC-S11", "PC-S12", "RSM-13", "HBD-16" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-038", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-b-actor-b-022" ], "actorOrPerson": "A tenant, ratepayer or host-community member", "whatChangesBy2031": "The resident becomes a co-authoriser and continuing rights-holder, not merely a beneficiary or obstacle to delivery.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "C04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-actor-b-022", "actorOrPerson": "A tenant, ratepayer or host-community member", "whatChangesBy2031": "The resident becomes a co-authoriser and continuing rights-holder, not merely a beneficiary or obstacle to delivery.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "C04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-039", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-b-actor-b-023" ], "actorOrPerson": "A small supplier, cooperative or informal repair worker", "whatChangesBy2031": "The local operator becomes part of regional lifecycle capacity while facing standards, data and parts gates controlled elsewhere.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "PC-S11", "PC-S12", "RSM-13" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-actor-b-023", "actorOrPerson": "A small supplier, cooperative or informal repair worker", "whatChangesBy2031": "The local operator becomes part of regional lifecycle capacity while facing standards, data and parts gates controlled elsewhere.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "PC-S11", "PC-S12", "RSM-13" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-040", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-b-actor-b-024" ], "actorOrPerson": "A resident seeking care, learning, repair or community participation", "whatChangesBy2031": "The person uses a relational layer as a bridge into renewed human institutions rather than as a substitute for them.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-actor-b-024", "actorOrPerson": "A resident seeking care, learning, repair or community participation", "whatChangesBy2031": "The person uses a relational layer as a bridge into renewed human institutions rather than as a substitute for them.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-041", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-b-actor-b-025" ], "actorOrPerson": "A care, teaching, maintenance or other frontline worker", "whatChangesBy2031": "In W04, this worker may help design and oversee tools that remove dangerous or repetitive tasks while keeping human judgement and relationships in the service.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "HBD-16", "RSM-13", "SC-G05" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-actor-b-025", "actorOrPerson": "A care, teaching, maintenance or other frontline worker", "whatChangesBy2031": "In W04, this worker may help design and oversee tools that remove dangerous or repetitive tasks while keeping human judgement and relationships in the service.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "HBD-16", "RSM-13", "SC-G05" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-042", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-b-actor-b-026" ], "actorOrPerson": "A learner or apprentice entering physical renewal work", "whatChangesBy2031": "The learner enters a labour-using renewal cycle where supervised embodied practice can provide income, progression and recognised contribution while some cognitive tasks are automated.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s05", "SC-G01", "SC-G07" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-actor-b-026", "actorOrPerson": "A learner or apprentice entering physical renewal work", "whatChangesBy2031": "The learner enters a labour-using renewal cycle where supervised embodied practice can provide income, progression and recognised contribution while some cognitive tasks are automated.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s05", "SC-G01", "SC-G07" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-043", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-c-actor-w05-01" ], "actorOrPerson": "Resident inside, beside or outside a protected service corridor", "whatChangesBy2031": "By 2031, a home address and corridor membership help set who gets service back first. They also shape whether a failed digital route still has staff or a manual path.", "worldIds": [ "w05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s43", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52", "C04" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-actor-w05-01", "actorOrPerson": "Resident inside, beside or outside a protected service corridor", "whatChangesBy2031": "By 2031, a home address and corridor membership help set who gets service back first. They also shape whether a failed digital route still has staff or a manual path.", "worldIds": [ "W05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s43", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52", "C04" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-044", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-c-actor-w05-02" ], "actorOrPerson": "Displaced, migrant, cross-border or document-poor person", "whatChangesBy2031": "Records for ID, family, health, legal status and work cross borders. The next place may not accept or recover them.", "worldIds": [ "w05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s09", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15", "HBD-13" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-actor-w05-02", "actorOrPerson": "Displaced, migrant, cross-border or document-poor person", "whatChangesBy2031": "Records for ID, family, health, legal status and work cross borders. The next place may not accept or recover them.", "worldIds": [ "W05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s09", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15", "HBD-13" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-045", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-c-actor-w05-03" ], "actorOrPerson": "Remote, informal, small-island, conflict-affected or Indigenous community with local public body", "whatChangesBy2031": "When central routes fail, local power, radio and paper records keep services open. Hands-on work and community consent matter too.", "worldIds": [ "w05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s47", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52", "C01" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-actor-w05-03", "actorOrPerson": "Remote, informal, small-island, conflict-affected or Indigenous community with local public body", "whatChangesBy2031": "When central routes fail, local power, radio and paper records keep services open. Hands-on work and community consent matter too.", "worldIds": [ "W05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s47", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52", "C01" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-046", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-c-actor-w05-04" ], "actorOrPerson": "Key-service body, utility, civil-defence body or local administration", "whatChangesBy2031": "It must share scarce power, water, network access, ID fixes and safe staff time. Public bodies and private system owners rely on each other.", "worldIds": [ "w05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s43", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s45", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-actor-w05-04", "actorOrPerson": "Key-service body, utility, civil-defence body or local administration", "whatChangesBy2031": "It must share scarce power, water, network access, ID fixes and safe staff time. Public bodies and private system owners rely on each other.", "worldIds": [ "W05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s43", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s45", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-047", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-c-actor-w05-05" ], "actorOrPerson": "Cloud, cable, chip, ID, exchange or network owner and operator", "whatChangesBy2031": "Its terms, access for repair, security notices and choices affect public services. Its role goes beyond that of a normal supplier.", "worldIds": [ "w05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s43", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s47", "PC-S13" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-actor-w05-05", "actorOrPerson": "Cloud, cable, chip, ID, exchange or network owner and operator", "whatChangesBy2031": "Its terms, access for repair, security notices and choices affect public services. Its role goes beyond that of a normal supplier.", "worldIds": [ "W05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s43", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s47", "PC-S13" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-048", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-c-actor-w05-06" ], "actorOrPerson": "Line crew, cable repairer, technician, maintainer or logistics worker", "whatChangesBy2031": "Repair needs safe access, permits, spare parts and parts that fit. The repair team can still be the limit when backup systems exist.", "worldIds": [ "w05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s47", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52", "PC-S13" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-actor-w05-06", "actorOrPerson": "Line crew, cable repairer, technician, maintainer or logistics worker", "whatChangesBy2031": "Repair needs safe access, permits, spare parts and parts that fit. The repair team can still be the limit when backup systems exist.", "worldIds": [ "W05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s47", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52", "PC-S13" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-049", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-c-actor-w05-07" ], "actorOrPerson": "Carer, health worker, teacher, caseworker, translator, food deliverer or volunteer doing hidden work that keeps services open", "whatChangesBy2031": "Services rely more on people to plan, care, fix records and use local knowledge. Long hours, harm and unpaid work are easy to hide.", "worldIds": [ "w05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52", "SC-G05" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-actor-w05-07", "actorOrPerson": "Carer, health worker, teacher, caseworker, translator, food deliverer or volunteer doing hidden work that keeps services open", "whatChangesBy2031": "Services rely more on people to plan, care, fix records and use local knowledge. Long hours, harm and unpaid work are easy to hide.", "worldIds": [ "W05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52", "SC-G05" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-050", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-c-actor-w05-08" ], "actorOrPerson": "Court, regulator, aid agency, local public body or community review body", "whatChangesBy2031": "It must keep record fixes, low-document access, fair priority and local consent. Crisis powers must end on time, yet some places lack a strong appeal route.", "worldIds": [ "w05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-actor-w05-08", "actorOrPerson": "Court, regulator, aid agency, local public body or community review body", "whatChangesBy2031": "It must keep record fixes, low-document access, fair priority and local consent. Crisis powers must end on time, yet some places lack a strong appeal route.", "worldIds": [ "W05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-051", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-c-actor-w06-01" ], "actorOrPerson": "Person using lasting AI attention for routine, rehearsal, learning or navigation", "whatChangesBy2031": "Saved ID-linked memory can make AI useful but hard to leave. AI may lead to real people or replace two-way contact.", "worldIds": [ "w06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-actor-w06-01", "actorOrPerson": "Person using lasting AI attention for routine, rehearsal, learning or navigation", "whatChangesBy2031": "Saved ID-linked memory can make AI useful but hard to leave. AI may lead to real people or replace two-way contact.", "worldIds": [ "W06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-052", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-c-actor-w06-02" ], "actorOrPerson": "Child or young person and the guardian or duty-holder responsible for them", "whatChangesBy2031": "Ongoing AI attention creates repeated safety questions. These cover clear notice, sales pressure, crisis steps, age checks and safe exit.", "worldIds": [ "w06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04", "SC-G01" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-actor-w06-02", "actorOrPerson": "Child or young person and the guardian or duty-holder responsible for them", "whatChangesBy2031": "Ongoing AI attention creates repeated safety questions. These cover clear notice, sales pressure, crisis steps, age checks and safe exit.", "worldIds": [ "W06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04", "SC-G01" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-053", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-c-actor-w06-03" ], "actorOrPerson": "Person in distress, crisis or seeking mental-health support", "whatChangesBy2031": "They may meet AI before a doctor or crisis worker. Safe human help and a clear line between support and treatment become part of daily life.", "worldIds": [ "w06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G05", "SC-G06", "SC-AI04" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-actor-w06-03", "actorOrPerson": "Person in distress, crisis or seeking mental-health support", "whatChangesBy2031": "They may meet AI before a doctor or crisis worker. Safe human help and a clear line between support and treatment become part of daily life.", "worldIds": [ "W06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G05", "SC-G06", "SC-AI04" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-054", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-c-actor-w06-04" ], "actorOrPerson": "Migrant, disabled, older, remote or local-language user who values translation or rehearsal", "whatChangesBy2031": "AI help may remove a first barrier. It does not provide the real service, human bond or public trust that the person needs.", "worldIds": [ "w06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "SC-G05", "SC-G06" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-actor-w06-04", "actorOrPerson": "Migrant, disabled, older, remote or local-language user who values translation or rehearsal", "whatChangesBy2031": "AI help may remove a first barrier. It does not provide the real service, human bond or public trust that the person needs.", "worldIds": [ "W06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "SC-G05", "SC-G06" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-055", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-c-actor-w06-05" ], "actorOrPerson": "Non-user, intermittent user, switcher or person who withdraws consent", "whatChangesBy2031": "Refusing or leaving AI may affect service access, saved history, status and group access. This risk grows when public bodies use AI as the front door.", "worldIds": [ "w06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-actor-w06-05", "actorOrPerson": "Non-user, intermittent user, switcher or person who withdraws consent", "whatChangesBy2031": "Refusing or leaving AI may affect service access, saved history, status and group access. This risk grows when public bodies use AI as the front door.", "worldIds": [ "W06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-056", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-c-actor-w06-06" ], "actorOrPerson": "School, health body, care provider, employer or public service that carries a duty to people", "whatChangesBy2031": "Its buying and staffing choices decide whether AI is a small aid, a regular front door or a replacement that cuts human support.", "worldIds": [ "w06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G05", "SC-G06", "SC-AI04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "horizon.health-biotech-demography.hbd-05" ], "sourceActorSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-actor-w06-06", "actorOrPerson": "School, health body, care provider, employer or public service that carries a duty to people", "whatChangesBy2031": "Its buying and staffing choices decide whether AI is a small aid, a regular front door or a replacement that cuts human support.", "worldIds": [ "W06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G05", "SC-G06", "SC-AI04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "horizon.health-biotech-demography.hbd-05" ] } ] }, { "id": "changed-actor-057", "sourceActorIds": [ "author-c-actor-w06-07" ], "actorOrPerson": "Teacher, carer, clinician, caseworker or community professional responsible for human handoff", "whatChangesBy2031": "They receive failed cases and fix false comfort. 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Its reliability across many kinds of work is still too weak for it to act alone. Repair can also fail.", "plainJob": "Before the action affects me, show me who is responsible, what the machine was allowed to do, and how a person can stop or fix it.", "observableCompletion": "A case record names the person in charge. It shows what the machine could do and what proof it used. It records any override. The affected person can reach a human who can pause, fix, and repair the outcome.", "repeatedDemand": "The need returns with each high-impact choice, version change, exception, incident and appeal.", "why2031Not2026": "In 2026, machines work well only on short, narrow tasks, and rules for blame vary. In W01, assisted work is routine by 2031 but people stay in charge. This boundary must work each day, not just in tests or guidance.", "worldIds": [ "w01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "AC-06", "AC-09", "AC-30", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter wherever high-impact machine help is used. The assigned evidence does not show which legal areas will offer the strongest human review." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Rules for legal blame, access to records, and staff for appeals vary by legal area. The assigned evidence does not show one pattern for all places." ], "unknowns": [ "Whether legal blame follows real control or is pushed onto a worker with no power", "Whether public bodies with fewer staff and funds can provide a real human review", "Whether suppliers in more than one country will accept one named person or group as responsible" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "A named person or responsible public body can approve and stop the action. The machine cannot expand its own role.", "remedyIfItFails": "The affected person gets notice and the relevant records. A human can review, pause, correct, and repair the outcome. An offline route is available when digital access fails.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Human sign-off cannot promise that the action is correct." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Human sign-off makes the action correct", "Machine help is safe in every field", "The named person always has enough time or skill" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Rubber-stamp approval", "whoIsHurt": "People affected by a high-impact decision that no one truly checked", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Require the named reviewer to record reasons, show any override, and allow an outside human appeal." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Duty is dumped on junior staff", "whoIsHurt": "Junior workers who are blamed but lack time, skill, or power to stop the action", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Give responsibility only with enough time, training, and stop power. Move legal blame back to the responsible organisation when those are missing." }, { "harmOrFailure": "No fix across suppliers", "whoIsHurt": "People harmed by a decision that passed through several suppliers", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Name one lead organisation that must collect the records, correct the outcome, and coordinate repair across suppliers." }, { "harmOrFailure": "The human route never responds", "whoIsHurt": "People who need an urgent review or correction", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Set response times, an escalation path, and an offline contact. Pause the disputed action when no qualified person responds." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: A record of who did what. Clear limits on the machine's role. A safe stop control.", "whyNeeded": "The named person can explain, stop, and repair an action only if they can see its limits and full record.", "ifMissing": "Without the record or stop control, the named person carries responsibility but cannot prevent or fix the action.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-06", "AC-09", "AC-30", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: A named person or body with a legal duty. Access to notice and evidence. A correction and repair process backed by law.", "whyNeeded": "The responsible person or body needs the legal power and duty to pause, correct, and repair harm, not just answer a complaint.", "ifMissing": "Without that power, the affected person reaches a human who cannot change the outcome or provide repair.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-06", "AC-09", "AC-30", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "No specific site or physical asset is required.", "whyNeeded": "This need is about clear responsibility and repair for high-impact assisted decisions. It does not depend on one type of site or asset.", "ifMissing": "Requiring a particular site or asset would add a false barrier without making responsibility clearer.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-06", "AC-09", "AC-30", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-institutional-01", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Workers, service users, employers, public bodies and people affected by an assisted choice", "triggerOrContext": "A machine prepares, checks, or coordinates a high-impact task. Its reliability across many kinds of work is still too weak for it to act alone. Repair can also fail.", "plainJob": "Before the action affects me, show me who is responsible, what the machine was allowed to do, and how a person can stop or fix it.", "observableCompletion": "A case record names the person in charge. It shows what the machine could do and what proof it used. It records any override. The affected person can reach a human who can pause, fix, and repair the outcome.", "repeatedDemand": "The need returns with each high-impact choice, version change, exception, incident and appeal.", "why2031Not2026": "In 2026, machines work well only on short, narrow tasks, and rules for blame vary. In W01, assisted work is routine by 2031 but people stay in charge. This boundary must work each day, not just in tests or guidance.", "worldIds": [ "W01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "AC-06", "AC-09", "AC-30", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter wherever high-impact machine help is used. The assigned evidence does not show which legal areas will offer the strongest human review." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Rules for legal blame, access to records, and staff for appeals vary by legal area. The assigned evidence does not show one pattern for all places." ], "unknowns": [ "Whether legal blame follows real control or is pushed onto a worker with no power", "Whether public bodies with fewer staff and funds can provide a real human review", "Whether suppliers in more than one country will accept one named person or group as responsible" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "A named person or responsible public body can approve and stop the action. The machine cannot expand its own role.", "remedyIfItFails": "The affected person gets notice and the relevant records. A human can review, pause, correct, and repair the outcome. An offline route is available when digital access fails.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Human sign-off cannot promise that the action is correct." }, "nonPromises": [ "Human sign-off makes the action correct", "Machine help is safe in every field", "The named person always has enough time or skill" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Rubber-stamp approval", "whoIsHurt": "People affected by a high-impact decision that no one truly checked", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Require the named reviewer to record reasons, show any override, and allow an outside human appeal." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Duty is dumped on junior staff", "whoIsHurt": "Junior workers who are blamed but lack time, skill, or power to stop the action", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Give responsibility only with enough time, training, and stop power. Move legal blame back to the responsible organisation when those are missing." }, { "harmOrFailure": "No fix across suppliers", "whoIsHurt": "People harmed by a decision that passed through several suppliers", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Name one lead organisation that must collect the records, correct the outcome, and coordinate repair across suppliers." }, { "harmOrFailure": "The human route never responds", "whoIsHurt": "People who need an urgent review or correction", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Set response times, an escalation path, and an offline contact. Pause the disputed action when no qualified person responds." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: A record of who did what. Clear limits on the machine's role. A safe stop control.", "whyNeeded": "The named person can explain, stop, and repair an action only if they can see its limits and full record.", "ifMissing": "Without the record or stop control, the named person carries responsibility but cannot prevent or fix the action.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-06", "AC-09", "AC-30", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: A named person or body with a legal duty. Access to notice and evidence. A correction and repair process backed by law.", "whyNeeded": "The responsible person or body needs the legal power and duty to pause, correct, and repair harm, not just answer a complaint.", "ifMissing": "Without that power, the affected person reaches a human who cannot change the outcome or provide repair.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-06", "AC-09", "AC-30", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "No specific site or physical asset is required.", "whyNeeded": "This need is about clear responsibility and repair for high-impact assisted decisions. It does not depend on one type of site or asset.", "ifMissing": "Requiring a particular site or asset would add a false barrier without making responsibility clearer.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-06", "AC-09", "AC-30", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-002", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-institutional-02" ], "actorOrPerson": "Buyers, regulators, insurers, workers who sign off, and people who bear failure", "triggerOrContext": "Smooth machine output is cheap and easy to show. It is still hard to prove that the meaning is right, a long task worked, real-world action was safe, and failures can be fixed.", "plainJob": "Let me check that the whole job worked in a setting like mine. Do not rely only on a convincing answer or the system's own test.", "observableCompletion": "Outside proof covers the intended setting, hidden checks, human rescue, damage, repair time and unresolved limits. Buyers can compare the claim with actual incidents after use in real work.", "repeatedDemand": "Proof expires as models, tools, data, staff, sites and threats change.", "why2031Not2026": "Tests ready in 2026 are narrow and often cover software only. W01 assumes wide but limited use by 2031. Fresh proof that work succeeds and failures can be fixed will then be a normal buying need.", "worldIds": [ "w01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "AC-09", "EWF-07", "RSM-13", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-metr-long-tasks-2025" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter wherever people buy or approve machine-assisted work. The assigned evidence does not show which places can fund enough outside testing." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Access to skilled testers, real-world test sites, and funds for independent checks varies by place." ], "unknowns": [ "How to keep testing independent and affordable", "How much a test result from one site applies at another", "How to report failures without exposing security details or personal data" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Independent testers can examine the system and publish findings. The organisation using the system still decides whether the evidence fits its setting and remains responsible for harm.", "remedyIfItFails": "Workers and affected people can report failures, read the relevant findings, and trigger a fresh test, human review, or pause.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Testing cannot promise that failure will never happen." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Zero failure", "A test result from one setting applies everywhere", "A certificate stays valid after a major change" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "A check that exists only on paper", "whoIsHurt": "Buyers, workers, and service users who rely on a weak certificate", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish the test method, limits, failures, and date. Require a fresh outside test when the system or setting changes." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Large suppliers price out smaller users", "whoIsHurt": "Small organisations and lower-budget public services that cannot afford a private test", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Support shared or public testing, publish standard evidence, and keep review fees open to challenge." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Hidden human rescue", "whoIsHurt": "Workers who quietly repair failures and users who are told the system worked alone", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Record each human rescue, include it in success claims, and pay and staff the rescue work." }, { "harmOrFailure": "The supplier chooses only easy tests", "whoIsHurt": "People whose language, disability, site, or case is harder than the test setting", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Let outside testers choose realistic hard cases and publish which people and settings were not tested." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Tests tied to the exact system version. Records of failures and human rescue. Evidence that repair worked.", "whyNeeded": "Evidence must link one system and setting to real success, human rescue, damage, and repair.", "ifMissing": "Without fresh evidence, a smooth demonstration or old certificate can be mistaken for dependable performance.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-09", "EWF-07", "RSM-13", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-metr-long-tasks-2025" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Access for independent testers. Safe reporting of failures. Buyer power to pause use.", "whyNeeded": "Testers and workers need lawful access and protection when they report a problem. Buyers need power to act on the findings.", "ifMissing": "Without these rights, suppliers can hide failures and a failed test has no practical effect.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-09", "EWF-07", "RSM-13", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-metr-long-tasks-2025" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Typical sites and equipment. Safe conditions for field tests. Access to upkeep and repair work.", "whyNeeded": "Claims about real-world performance must be tested where the work, hazards, wear, and repairs occur.", "ifMissing": "Without a real setting, the test misses site hazards, human rescue, wear, and the work needed to repair failure.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-09", "EWF-07", "RSM-13", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-metr-long-tasks-2025" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-institutional-02", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Buyers, regulators, insurers, workers who sign off, and people who bear failure", "triggerOrContext": "Smooth machine output is cheap and easy to show. It is still hard to prove that the meaning is right, a long task worked, real-world action was safe, and failures can be fixed.", "plainJob": "Let me check that the whole job worked in a setting like mine. Do not rely only on a convincing answer or the system's own test.", "observableCompletion": "Outside proof covers the intended setting, hidden checks, human rescue, damage, repair time and unresolved limits. Buyers can compare the claim with actual incidents after use in real work.", "repeatedDemand": "Proof expires as models, tools, data, staff, sites and threats change.", "why2031Not2026": "Tests ready in 2026 are narrow and often cover software only. W01 assumes wide but limited use by 2031. Fresh proof that work succeeds and failures can be fixed will then be a normal buying need.", "worldIds": [ "W01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "AC-09", "EWF-07", "RSM-13", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-metr-long-tasks-2025" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter wherever people buy or approve machine-assisted work. The assigned evidence does not show which places can fund enough outside testing." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Access to skilled testers, real-world test sites, and funds for independent checks varies by place." ], "unknowns": [ "How to keep testing independent and affordable", "How much a test result from one site applies at another", "How to report failures without exposing security details or personal data" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Independent testers can examine the system and publish findings. The organisation using the system still decides whether the evidence fits its setting and remains responsible for harm.", "remedyIfItFails": "Workers and affected people can report failures, read the relevant findings, and trigger a fresh test, human review, or pause.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Testing cannot promise that failure will never happen." }, "nonPromises": [ "Zero failure", "A test result from one setting applies everywhere", "A certificate stays valid after a major change" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "A check that exists only on paper", "whoIsHurt": "Buyers, workers, and service users who rely on a weak certificate", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish the test method, limits, failures, and date. Require a fresh outside test when the system or setting changes." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Large suppliers price out smaller users", "whoIsHurt": "Small organisations and lower-budget public services that cannot afford a private test", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Support shared or public testing, publish standard evidence, and keep review fees open to challenge." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Hidden human rescue", "whoIsHurt": "Workers who quietly repair failures and users who are told the system worked alone", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Record each human rescue, include it in success claims, and pay and staff the rescue work." }, { "harmOrFailure": "The supplier chooses only easy tests", "whoIsHurt": "People whose language, disability, site, or case is harder than the test setting", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Let outside testers choose realistic hard cases and publish which people and settings were not tested." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Tests tied to the exact system version. Records of failures and human rescue. Evidence that repair worked.", "whyNeeded": "Evidence must link one system and setting to real success, human rescue, damage, and repair.", "ifMissing": "Without fresh evidence, a smooth demonstration or old certificate can be mistaken for dependable performance.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-09", "EWF-07", "RSM-13", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-metr-long-tasks-2025" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Access for independent testers. Safe reporting of failures. Buyer power to pause use.", "whyNeeded": "Testers and workers need lawful access and protection when they report a problem. Buyers need power to act on the findings.", "ifMissing": "Without these rights, suppliers can hide failures and a failed test has no practical effect.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-09", "EWF-07", "RSM-13", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-metr-long-tasks-2025" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Typical sites and equipment. Safe conditions for field tests. Access to upkeep and repair work.", "whyNeeded": "Claims about real-world performance must be tested where the work, hazards, wear, and repairs occur.", "ifMissing": "Without a real setting, the test misses site hazards, human rescue, wear, and the work needed to repair failure.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-09", "EWF-07", "RSM-13", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-metr-long-tasks-2025" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-003", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-institutional-06" ], "actorOrPerson": "Patients, disabled people, carers, doctors, nurses, local health teams, and service managers", "triggerOrContext": "Health and care tools can produce more notes, risk alerts, and remote contact. Staff, treatment, and hands-on care may still be scarce.", "plainJob": "When a system spots a problem, connect me to a qualified person who can act, tell me what happens next and keep supporting me if the first route fails.", "observableCompletion": "A named care team receives the case and contacts the person through a simple route. The team completes or arranges the needed action. It records what happened if staff or supplies were not ready.", "repeatedDemand": "Setting, risk signals, medicines, care arrangements and workforce availability change over time.", "why2031Not2026": "Guidance for digital health tools and data on service coverage exist in 2026. They do not prove good results or full access. In W01, trained staff still lead care as machine help spreads.", "worldIds": [ "w01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter wherever machine alerts or remote advice grow faster than staffed care. The assigned evidence does not show which places will face the largest gap." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Health rules, trained staff, transport, language access, and nearby care sites vary by place." ], "unknowns": [ "Whether time saved by the tool becomes more care for patients", "How many alerts lead to useful action", "Whether family carers receive relief or extra unpaid work" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "A trained care team decides diagnosis and treatment and remains responsible. A machine may help only within a clearly defined task.", "remedyIfItFails": "A person can reach a human, correct a record, decline machine help, and use a staffed crisis or offline route.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A non-clinical contact cannot promise a diagnosis." } ], "nonPromises": [ "A diagnosis from a non-clinical contact", "Treatment is available everywhere", "Remote contact can replace all hands-on care" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "An alert leads to no action", "whoIsHurt": "Patients whose care need is noticed but not treated", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Assign the alert to a named care team, set a response time, and use a staffed backup when the first route fails." }, { "harmOrFailure": "False reassurance", "whoIsHurt": "Patients and carers who delay care because a machine summary looks certain", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Show uncertainty, require clinician review for serious cases, and give a fast route to correct the advice." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Care work shifts to families", "whoIsHurt": "Patients and unpaid carers left to provide skilled or round-the-clock support", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Fund trained staff and respite, record failed handoffs, and restore professional care when family help is not enough." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Only automation answers in a crisis", "whoIsHurt": "People in crisis who need immediate trained human help", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Route crisis signs to trained staff, test the handoff often, and keep a phone or in-person backup." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Records that work across the care team. Accessible contact. Reliable case tracking and escalation.", "whyNeeded": "An alert must reach the responsible team with enough context and stay open until the team acts or offers another route.", "ifMissing": "Without reliable tracking, an alert can be lost, copied, or closed without treatment.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: A trained clinician remains responsible. The person can consent and correct records. Clear patient-safety and crisis duties apply.", "whyNeeded": "A trained team must have both the duty and authority to act, protect the person, and correct a harmful record.", "ifMissing": "Without these duties, the route gives advice but no clinician takes responsibility, acts in a crisis, or fixes an error.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Trained staff, care sites, medicines, transport, power, and communications.", "whyNeeded": "A digital bridge helps only when staff, treatment, and hands-on support are ready at the other end.", "ifMissing": "Without those resources, detection grows but the person receives no examination, treatment, or practical care.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-institutional-06", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Patients, disabled people, carers, doctors, nurses, local health teams, and service managers", "triggerOrContext": "Health and care tools can produce more notes, risk alerts, and remote contact. Staff, treatment, and hands-on care may still be scarce.", "plainJob": "When a system spots a problem, connect me to a qualified person who can act, tell me what happens next and keep supporting me if the first route fails.", "observableCompletion": "A named care team receives the case and contacts the person through a simple route. The team completes or arranges the needed action. It records what happened if staff or supplies were not ready.", "repeatedDemand": "Setting, risk signals, medicines, care arrangements and workforce availability change over time.", "why2031Not2026": "Guidance for digital health tools and data on service coverage exist in 2026. They do not prove good results or full access. In W01, trained staff still lead care as machine help spreads.", "worldIds": [ "W01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter wherever machine alerts or remote advice grow faster than staffed care. The assigned evidence does not show which places will face the largest gap." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Health rules, trained staff, transport, language access, and nearby care sites vary by place." ], "unknowns": [ "Whether time saved by the tool becomes more care for patients", "How many alerts lead to useful action", "Whether family carers receive relief or extra unpaid work" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "A trained care team decides diagnosis and treatment and remains responsible. A machine may help only within a clearly defined task.", "remedyIfItFails": "A person can reach a human, correct a record, decline machine help, and use a staffed crisis or offline route.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A non-clinical contact cannot promise a diagnosis." }, "nonPromises": [ "A diagnosis from a non-clinical contact", "Treatment is available everywhere", "Remote contact can replace all hands-on care" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "An alert leads to no action", "whoIsHurt": "Patients whose care need is noticed but not treated", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Assign the alert to a named care team, set a response time, and use a staffed backup when the first route fails." }, { "harmOrFailure": "False reassurance", "whoIsHurt": "Patients and carers who delay care because a machine summary looks certain", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Show uncertainty, require clinician review for serious cases, and give a fast route to correct the advice." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Care work shifts to families", "whoIsHurt": "Patients and unpaid carers left to provide skilled or round-the-clock support", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Fund trained staff and respite, record failed handoffs, and restore professional care when family help is not enough." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Only automation answers in a crisis", "whoIsHurt": "People in crisis who need immediate trained human help", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Route crisis signs to trained staff, test the handoff often, and keep a phone or in-person backup." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Records that work across the care team. Accessible contact. Reliable case tracking and escalation.", "whyNeeded": "An alert must reach the responsible team with enough context and stay open until the team acts or offers another route.", "ifMissing": "Without reliable tracking, an alert can be lost, copied, or closed without treatment.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: A trained clinician remains responsible. The person can consent and correct records. Clear patient-safety and crisis duties apply.", "whyNeeded": "A trained team must have both the duty and authority to act, protect the person, and correct a harmful record.", "ifMissing": "Without these duties, the route gives advice but no clinician takes responsibility, acts in a crisis, or fixes an error.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Trained staff, care sites, medicines, transport, power, and communications.", "whyNeeded": "A digital bridge helps only when staff, treatment, and hands-on support are ready at the other end.", "ifMissing": "Without those resources, detection grows but the person receives no examination, treatment, or practical care.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-004", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-institutional-08" ], "actorOrPerson": "Local public bodies, service leaders, workers, local people, and taxpayers", "triggerOrContext": "Climate work, care, learning, safety, and major computer projects compete for money, staff, power, materials, and approval. People still answer for the choices.", "plainJob": "Show us which work will actually protect or serve people here, what staff and materials it needs, what is being delayed, and who can challenge the choice.", "observableCompletion": "The public body shows the local need, the steps to deliver it, and the plan for staff and upkeep. It shows what will wait. Workers and local people can challenge or stop the choice.", "repeatedDemand": "Hazards, queues, budgets, workforce and service demand change each planning cycle and after shocks.", "why2031Not2026": "Climate needs and service gaps are clear in 2026. Plans and reports do not prove that work was delivered. In W01, services that need people remain central through 2031.", "worldIds": [ "w01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "E05", "HBD-05", "PC-S01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter where climate work, care, learning, safety, and large computer projects compete for staff, money, power, or materials. The assigned evidence does not show which places face the greatest need or have the strongest delivery." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Public funds, trained workers, local hazards, and access to power, sites, and materials vary by place." ], "unknowns": [ "Which kinds of climate spending produce lasting results", "Whether savings from automation are used to fund staff", "How unpaid care and informal repair are valued without forcing people to track private work" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Elected public bodies make budget choices within the law. Workers, utilities, professional bodies, and affected communities keep their safety, labour, and local approval rights.", "remedyIfItFails": "Publish the reasons and evidence. Allow human review, a challenge to the purchase, worker refusal of unsafe work, and a local power to stop the plan where the law provides one.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "No public body can promise enough staff and resources for every need." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Enough resources for every need", "A plan will receive funding", "The cheapest measured option is always fair" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Climate alerts replace delivered work", "whoIsHurt": "People exposed to heat, flood, fire, or other local hazards", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Name the team, budget, task, and delivery date behind each alert. Publish whether the protective work was completed." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Equipment crowds out staff", "whoIsHurt": "Workers and service users who need people to operate, maintain, or act on new equipment", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish the full staffing and upkeep plan, protect those funds, and review purchases that leave no delivery team." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Unpaid care stays hidden", "whoIsHurt": "Carers whose workload grows when public services fall short", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Record the extra workload with consent, offer respite or paid support, and restore the public service duty." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Benefits go only to places already ready to deliver", "whoIsHurt": "Communities with high need but fewer staff, funds, or working systems", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish how funds and staff are shared, support local delivery capacity, and allow a public challenge to unfair choices." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Comparable records of local need and delivery. Clear records of staff and resources. Public evidence of progress and upkeep.", "whyNeeded": "Public leaders and local people must be able to link a proposed trade-off to local need, other work that must wait, and the result delivered.", "ifMissing": "Without these records, plans and cheap estimates can replace proof of staff, safety, and delivery.", "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "E05", "HBD-05", "PC-S01" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Power to set budgets and buy services. Labour and professional duties. Local input, public review, and a lawful power to stop harmful work.", "whyNeeded": "Only responsible public bodies can make these choices. Workers and affected communities need clear rights to challenge unsafe or unfair trade-offs.", "ifMissing": "Without those powers and rights, scarce resources are assigned without worker safety or public challenge.", "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "E05", "HBD-05", "PC-S01" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Staff, power, materials, sites, transport, and long-term upkeep.", "whyNeeded": "Care, teaching, and climate safety are delivered by people using maintained places, tools, and supplies, not by plans alone.", "ifMissing": "Without staff and physical resources, the chosen work cannot be built, run, or maintained.", "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "E05", "HBD-05", "PC-S01" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-institutional-08", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Local public bodies, service leaders, workers, local people, and taxpayers", "triggerOrContext": "Climate work, care, learning, safety, and major computer projects compete for money, staff, power, materials, and approval. People still answer for the choices.", "plainJob": "Show us which work will actually protect or serve people here, what staff and materials it needs, what is being delayed, and who can challenge the choice.", "observableCompletion": "The public body shows the local need, the steps to deliver it, and the plan for staff and upkeep. It shows what will wait. Workers and local people can challenge or stop the choice.", "repeatedDemand": "Hazards, queues, budgets, workforce and service demand change each planning cycle and after shocks.", "why2031Not2026": "Climate needs and service gaps are clear in 2026. Plans and reports do not prove that work was delivered. In W01, services that need people remain central through 2031.", "worldIds": [ "W01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "E05", "HBD-05", "PC-S01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter where climate work, care, learning, safety, and large computer projects compete for staff, money, power, or materials. The assigned evidence does not show which places face the greatest need or have the strongest delivery." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Public funds, trained workers, local hazards, and access to power, sites, and materials vary by place." ], "unknowns": [ "Which kinds of climate spending produce lasting results", "Whether savings from automation are used to fund staff", "How unpaid care and informal repair are valued without forcing people to track private work" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Elected public bodies make budget choices within the law. Workers, utilities, professional bodies, and affected communities keep their safety, labour, and local approval rights.", "remedyIfItFails": "Publish the reasons and evidence. Allow human review, a challenge to the purchase, worker refusal of unsafe work, and a local power to stop the plan where the law provides one.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "No public body can promise enough staff and resources for every need." }, "nonPromises": [ "Enough resources for every need", "A plan will receive funding", "The cheapest measured option is always fair" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Climate alerts replace delivered work", "whoIsHurt": "People exposed to heat, flood, fire, or other local hazards", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Name the team, budget, task, and delivery date behind each alert. Publish whether the protective work was completed." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Equipment crowds out staff", "whoIsHurt": "Workers and service users who need people to operate, maintain, or act on new equipment", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish the full staffing and upkeep plan, protect those funds, and review purchases that leave no delivery team." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Unpaid care stays hidden", "whoIsHurt": "Carers whose workload grows when public services fall short", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Record the extra workload with consent, offer respite or paid support, and restore the public service duty." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Benefits go only to places already ready to deliver", "whoIsHurt": "Communities with high need but fewer staff, funds, or working systems", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish how funds and staff are shared, support local delivery capacity, and allow a public challenge to unfair choices." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Comparable records of local need and delivery. Clear records of staff and resources. Public evidence of progress and upkeep.", "whyNeeded": "Public leaders and local people must be able to link a proposed trade-off to local need, other work that must wait, and the result delivered.", "ifMissing": "Without these records, plans and cheap estimates can replace proof of staff, safety, and delivery.", "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "E05", "HBD-05", "PC-S01" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Power to set budgets and buy services. Labour and professional duties. Local input, public review, and a lawful power to stop harmful work.", "whyNeeded": "Only responsible public bodies can make these choices. Workers and affected communities need clear rights to challenge unsafe or unfair trade-offs.", "ifMissing": "Without those powers and rights, scarce resources are assigned without worker safety or public challenge.", "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "E05", "HBD-05", "PC-S01" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Staff, power, materials, sites, transport, and long-term upkeep.", "whyNeeded": "Care, teaching, and climate safety are delivered by people using maintained places, tools, and supplies, not by plans alone.", "ifMissing": "Without staff and physical resources, the chosen work cannot be built, run, or maintained.", "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "E05", "HBD-05", "PC-S01" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-005", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-institutional-09" ], "actorOrPerson": "Power and water firms, ratepayers, local people, local businesses, workers and basic systems owners", "triggerOrContext": "Large computer sites and other special systems need power, water, land, and links. Homes, public services, climate safety, and other firms need the same resources.", "plainJob": "Before a large load is connected, show what it uses, who pays for upgrades, what families and services lose or gain, and how local people can object or be paid for harm.", "observableCompletion": "The owner shows local resource use and connection costs. Other uses are compared. Homes and key services are protected. Local terms have legal force. Actual use is checked after connection.", "repeatedDemand": "Each new site, expansion, drought, grid constraint and price rule change means the allocation decision must be reconsidered.", "why2031Not2026": "Reports in 2026 show global growth and local limits. They do not show who gains or loses at each site. In W01, choices about new sites become a repeated limit by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "w01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03", "PC-S04" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter near large computer sites where homes, services, and firms share power, water, land, or grid links. The assigned evidence does not show which places face the greatest pressure." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Grid rules, water limits, local prices, public-service needs, and the power of host communities vary by place." ], "unknowns": [ "The actual computer workload and water use at each site", "Which homes, services, firms, or owners finally pay for an upgrade", "Whether spare power and grid links can be moved without new legal or technical limits" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Utilities, water bodies, planners, and public safety bodies assign shared resources under public rules. The owner of a computer site cannot set public priorities alone.", "remedyIfItFails": "Review prices and planning decisions, set or enforce use limits, pause a harmful load, repair damage, and require payment to the host community.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Public bodies cannot promise a connection for every proposed site." } ], "nonPromises": [ "A connection for every proposed site", "One resource price that fits every place", "Better efficiency always lowers total use" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Families subsidise private loads", "whoIsHurt": "Households and public services charged for upgrades mainly used by a private site", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish who caused each cost, cap unfair charges, and refund costs that should be paid by the site owner." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Water use is hidden", "whoIsHurt": "Nearby households, farms, workers, and ecosystems that rely on the same water", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Measure and publish local use, set enforceable limits, and stop or repair use that breaks the agreed terms." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Reserved power blocks a public need", "whoIsHurt": "Homes and key services denied a grid link while capacity is held for a future private load", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish reserved capacity and expiry dates. Release unused capacity and allow public review of priorities." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Demand grows where local people gain little", "whoIsHurt": "Host communities that bear new costs without jobs, services, or local funds", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Set clear host terms before approval, fund local upkeep and repair, and publish whether promised benefits arrived." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Local meters for each large workload. Records that show who used each resource. Tracking for the reliability of homes and key services.", "whyNeeded": "Local meters and clear records are needed to check actual use, host costs, and the agreed connection terms.", "ifMissing": "Without them, overuse and shifted costs can hide inside broad national totals.", "evidenceIds": [ "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03", "PC-S04" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Public rules for sharing. Power to set prices and plan sites. Enforceable terms and a clear remedy for host communities.", "whyNeeded": "Public bodies must balance competing uses, assign upgrade costs, and enforce the terms agreed with the host area.", "ifMissing": "Without these powers, a private load can move ahead of other uses without review, limits, or payment for harm.", "evidenceIds": [ "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03", "PC-S04" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Grid links, transformers, generation, cooling, water, land, repair staff, and spare parts.", "whyNeeded": "The decision concerns limited local systems. Their true capacity and upkeep set what can connect safely.", "ifMissing": "Without enough physical capacity, the new load harms homes or key services or cannot run safely.", "evidenceIds": [ "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03", "PC-S04" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-institutional-09", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Power and water firms, ratepayers, local people, local businesses, workers and basic systems owners", "triggerOrContext": "Large computer sites and other special systems need power, water, land, and links. Homes, public services, climate safety, and other firms need the same resources.", "plainJob": "Before a large load is connected, show what it uses, who pays for upgrades, what families and services lose or gain, and how local people can object or be paid for harm.", "observableCompletion": "The owner shows local resource use and connection costs. Other uses are compared. Homes and key services are protected. Local terms have legal force. Actual use is checked after connection.", "repeatedDemand": "Each new site, expansion, drought, grid constraint and price rule change means the allocation decision must be reconsidered.", "why2031Not2026": "Reports in 2026 show global growth and local limits. They do not show who gains or loses at each site. In W01, choices about new sites become a repeated limit by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "W01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03", "PC-S04" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter near large computer sites where homes, services, and firms share power, water, land, or grid links. The assigned evidence does not show which places face the greatest pressure." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Grid rules, water limits, local prices, public-service needs, and the power of host communities vary by place." ], "unknowns": [ "The actual computer workload and water use at each site", "Which homes, services, firms, or owners finally pay for an upgrade", "Whether spare power and grid links can be moved without new legal or technical limits" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Utilities, water bodies, planners, and public safety bodies assign shared resources under public rules. The owner of a computer site cannot set public priorities alone.", "remedyIfItFails": "Review prices and planning decisions, set or enforce use limits, pause a harmful load, repair damage, and require payment to the host community.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Public bodies cannot promise a connection for every proposed site." }, "nonPromises": [ "A connection for every proposed site", "One resource price that fits every place", "Better efficiency always lowers total use" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Families subsidise private loads", "whoIsHurt": "Households and public services charged for upgrades mainly used by a private site", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish who caused each cost, cap unfair charges, and refund costs that should be paid by the site owner." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Water use is hidden", "whoIsHurt": "Nearby households, farms, workers, and ecosystems that rely on the same water", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Measure and publish local use, set enforceable limits, and stop or repair use that breaks the agreed terms." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Reserved power blocks a public need", "whoIsHurt": "Homes and key services denied a grid link while capacity is held for a future private load", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish reserved capacity and expiry dates. Release unused capacity and allow public review of priorities." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Demand grows where local people gain little", "whoIsHurt": "Host communities that bear new costs without jobs, services, or local funds", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Set clear host terms before approval, fund local upkeep and repair, and publish whether promised benefits arrived." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Local meters for each large workload. Records that show who used each resource. Tracking for the reliability of homes and key services.", "whyNeeded": "Local meters and clear records are needed to check actual use, host costs, and the agreed connection terms.", "ifMissing": "Without them, overuse and shifted costs can hide inside broad national totals.", "evidenceIds": [ "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03", "PC-S04" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Public rules for sharing. Power to set prices and plan sites. Enforceable terms and a clear remedy for host communities.", "whyNeeded": "Public bodies must balance competing uses, assign upgrade costs, and enforce the terms agreed with the host area.", "ifMissing": "Without these powers, a private load can move ahead of other uses without review, limits, or payment for harm.", "evidenceIds": [ "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03", "PC-S04" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Grid links, transformers, generation, cooling, water, land, repair staff, and spare parts.", "whyNeeded": "The decision concerns limited local systems. Their true capacity and upkeep set what can connect safely.", "ifMissing": "Without enough physical capacity, the new load harms homes or key services or cannot run safely.", "evidenceIds": [ "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03", "PC-S04" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-006", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-institutional-12" ], "actorOrPerson": "Leaders and staff in care, learning, paid work, and public services, plus people sent through digital support tools", "triggerOrContext": "A public service uses a tool that talks in a caring way to guide, rehearse, or support people. Staff time is costly and scarce.", "plainJob": "Show that this tool helps people reach real staff or join real groups. Show that it is not quietly removing the people responsible for care, learning, or corrections.", "observableCompletion": "Reviewers check staffing, successful handoffs, offline contact, crisis failures, saved-record exit, and complaints together. If human support falls, a named person must restore staff or pause the tool.", "repeatedDemand": "Buying choices, staff levels, user needs, tools, and ways of taking part change over time.", "why2031Not2026": "Laws and inquiries in 2026 show new duties, not usual results. In W01, people and public groups stay responsible as these tools spread.", "worldIds": [ "w01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "SC-G05" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter wherever public services use digital support tools as a bridge to staff. The assigned evidence does not show which places will protect staff most effectively." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Service duties, staff levels, saved-data rules, crisis routes, and access to offline help vary by service and legal area." ], "unknowns": [ "How to tell when a tool supports staff and when it replaces them", "How much user choice is lost when a service has too few staff", "Whether providers reveal how they prompt people to return" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The public service remains responsible for outcomes and staff. A supplier cannot replace a legal or professional duty with use of its tool.", "remedyIfItFails": "Allow an independent check and complaint. Let people erase saved data and reach a human. Pause purchases and restore staff after replacement harm.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Not every contact with a digital support tool is harmful." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Every contact with a digital support tool is harmful", "More use by itself proves dependence", "A privacy notice by itself makes the route safe" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "A computer-made front door blocks staff", "whoIsHurt": "People who need a person, an accessible route, or help outside the digital tool", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep a clear staff and offline route, show it before use, and pause the tool when handoffs fail." }, { "harmOrFailure": "A crisis escalation gets no answer", "whoIsHurt": "People in crisis who are told that help is on the way", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Set a staffed response time, test the route, and switch to phone or in-person help when no one answers." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Participation targets replace service results", "whoIsHurt": "Service users pushed to keep using a tool even when care, learning, or work support does not improve", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Judge the service by completed human outcomes, not tool use. Stop targets that reward more contact without help." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Staff cuts are hidden by satisfaction data", "whoIsHurt": "Workers who lose their jobs and users who lose real human support", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish staff levels, handoff failures, and complaints beside satisfaction data. Restore staff when service quality falls." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Records of handoffs over time. Tests that saved data can be moved or erased. Measures of staff, crises, complaints, and real-world participation that protect personal data.", "whyNeeded": "Reviewers must link tool use to successful human handoffs, staff levels, participation, and failure over time.", "ifMissing": "Without those links, high use or satisfaction can hide lost human contact and failed service duties.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "SC-G05" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: The public service keeps its duty. Buyers and independent reviewers can inspect the service. Data, child, crisis, and complaint rights remain in force.", "whyNeeded": "The service must stay answerable for outcomes and allow independent review or a pause.", "ifMissing": "Without those duties, a supplier's tool can replace a public or professional service without legal review.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "SC-G05" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Retained staff, reachable human handoff routes, offline services, and accessible ways to take part.", "whyNeeded": "A bridge works only if staff, services, and real groups are ready to receive people.", "ifMissing": "Without them, the service can record referrals but cannot deliver care, contact, or participation.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "SC-G05" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-institutional-12", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Leaders and staff in care, learning, paid work, and public services, plus people sent through digital support tools", "triggerOrContext": "A public service uses a tool that talks in a caring way to guide, rehearse, or support people. Staff time is costly and scarce.", "plainJob": "Show that this tool helps people reach real staff or join real groups. Show that it is not quietly removing the people responsible for care, learning, or corrections.", "observableCompletion": "Reviewers check staffing, successful handoffs, offline contact, crisis failures, saved-record exit, and complaints together. If human support falls, a named person must restore staff or pause the tool.", "repeatedDemand": "Buying choices, staff levels, user needs, tools, and ways of taking part change over time.", "why2031Not2026": "Laws and inquiries in 2026 show new duties, not usual results. In W01, people and public groups stay responsible as these tools spread.", "worldIds": [ "W01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "SC-G05" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter wherever public services use digital support tools as a bridge to staff. The assigned evidence does not show which places will protect staff most effectively." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Service duties, staff levels, saved-data rules, crisis routes, and access to offline help vary by service and legal area." ], "unknowns": [ "How to tell when a tool supports staff and when it replaces them", "How much user choice is lost when a service has too few staff", "Whether providers reveal how they prompt people to return" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The public service remains responsible for outcomes and staff. A supplier cannot replace a legal or professional duty with use of its tool.", "remedyIfItFails": "Allow an independent check and complaint. Let people erase saved data and reach a human. Pause purchases and restore staff after replacement harm.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Not every contact with a digital support tool is harmful." }, "nonPromises": [ "Every contact with a digital support tool is harmful", "More use by itself proves dependence", "A privacy notice by itself makes the route safe" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "A computer-made front door blocks staff", "whoIsHurt": "People who need a person, an accessible route, or help outside the digital tool", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep a clear staff and offline route, show it before use, and pause the tool when handoffs fail." }, { "harmOrFailure": "A crisis escalation gets no answer", "whoIsHurt": "People in crisis who are told that help is on the way", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Set a staffed response time, test the route, and switch to phone or in-person help when no one answers." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Participation targets replace service results", "whoIsHurt": "Service users pushed to keep using a tool even when care, learning, or work support does not improve", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Judge the service by completed human outcomes, not tool use. Stop targets that reward more contact without help." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Staff cuts are hidden by satisfaction data", "whoIsHurt": "Workers who lose their jobs and users who lose real human support", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish staff levels, handoff failures, and complaints beside satisfaction data. Restore staff when service quality falls." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Records of handoffs over time. Tests that saved data can be moved or erased. Measures of staff, crises, complaints, and real-world participation that protect personal data.", "whyNeeded": "Reviewers must link tool use to successful human handoffs, staff levels, participation, and failure over time.", "ifMissing": "Without those links, high use or satisfaction can hide lost human contact and failed service duties.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "SC-G05" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: The public service keeps its duty. Buyers and independent reviewers can inspect the service. Data, child, crisis, and complaint rights remain in force.", "whyNeeded": "The service must stay answerable for outcomes and allow independent review or a pause.", "ifMissing": "Without those duties, a supplier's tool can replace a public or professional service without legal review.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "SC-G05" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Retained staff, reachable human handoff routes, offline services, and accessible ways to take part.", "whyNeeded": "A bridge works only if staff, services, and real groups are ready to receive people.", "ifMissing": "Without them, the service can record referrals but cannot deliver care, contact, or participation.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "SC-G05" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-007", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-institutional-13" ], "actorOrPerson": "Families, public funds, pension funds, co-ops, taxpayers, workers, and people near major sites", "triggerOrContext": "In W02, paid knowledge work and job-based income may fall while income from machine systems and buildings rises. The plan works only if many people share enough of that income to keep spending.", "plainJob": "Show what assets our public fund, pension fund, co-op, or family owns. Show the income, costs, and who was paid. Let me challenge missing or unfair value.", "observableCompletion": "Records show who really owns each asset, who controls it, the income and costs, who was paid, and what is owed to nearby people. Local people and outside reviewers can inspect and challenge the records.", "repeatedDemand": "Income, owners, values, money sent abroad, and the people who receive funds change each period.", "why2031Not2026": "Major infrastructure deals seen by 2026 show power held by a few owners and risks when users cannot switch. A sharp work break and broad sharing of machine income are possible W02 paths, not results shown by the assigned proof.", "worldIds": [ "w02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-20", "EWF-22", "PC-S01", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter wherever income from machine systems is held by a small group of owners. The assigned evidence does not show that a broad ownership plan already works in any place." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Ownership law, public and pension funds, local host costs, and access to clear ownership records vary by legal area." ], "unknowns": [ "How income from owners in more than one country would be valued and taxed", "Whether public claims survive when an owner leaves or sells", "How to value host costs without overruling local consent" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Lawmakers, courts, and well-run public or member-owned funds set and enforce the claims. Asset managers cannot replace public rights with private control.", "remedyIfItFails": "Correct ownership records and payments, obtain an independent valuation, challenge a broken legal duty, and seek review by a court or regulator.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Broad ownership cannot promise equal wealth." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Equal wealth", "Stable income from assets", "Public ownership by itself creates enough household income", "Ownership claims remove physical limits" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Ownership exists only on paper", "whoIsHurt": "Families or local groups given a label but no voting power, information, or income", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish control and income rights, provide the full ownership record, and allow a court or regulator to enforce the claim." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Middle groups capture the income", "whoIsHurt": "Families, pension members, or public funds whose share is reduced by hidden fees or transfers", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Trace gross income, costs, fees, and final payments. Recover unfair charges and correct the payment record." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Host communities bear the costs", "whoIsHurt": "People and public services near the assets that use local power, water, land, or roads", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Record local costs, fund upkeep and repair, and include host obligations in the enforceable ownership terms." }, { "harmOrFailure": "People are left out of ownership claims", "whoIsHurt": "Small holders and local public funds whose records do not appear in the final claim", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Accept more than one form of proof, provide a human review, and correct both the ownership and payment records." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Checked records of who owns each asset. Records of income, costs, fees, and final payments. Access for independent checks.", "whyNeeded": "A broad claim can reach families only if the same records link owners, income, deductions, payments, and the assets that earned the money.", "ifMissing": "Without a clear chain of records, middle groups or private owners can capture income without being seen.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-20", "EWF-22", "PC-S01", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Enforceable ownership and income rights. Duties to act with care and set a fair value. Tax, sharing, and court enforcement.", "whyNeeded": "The claim needs control and income rights backed by law, not just a promise from asset owners.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, local people may hold a paper label but have no income, information, or remedy.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-20", "EWF-22", "PC-S01", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Working computer and utility systems, upkeep, records of local costs, and measured output.", "whyNeeded": "The income comes from real assets. Their operation, upkeep, and local costs set how much value can be shared.", "ifMissing": "Without the physical link, payments lose touch with performance, upkeep costs, and harm borne by host communities.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-20", "EWF-22", "PC-S01", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-institutional-13", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Families, public funds, pension funds, co-ops, taxpayers, workers, and people near major sites", "triggerOrContext": "In W02, paid knowledge work and job-based income may fall while income from machine systems and buildings rises. The plan works only if many people share enough of that income to keep spending.", "plainJob": "Show what assets our public fund, pension fund, co-op, or family owns. Show the income, costs, and who was paid. Let me challenge missing or unfair value.", "observableCompletion": "Records show who really owns each asset, who controls it, the income and costs, who was paid, and what is owed to nearby people. Local people and outside reviewers can inspect and challenge the records.", "repeatedDemand": "Income, owners, values, money sent abroad, and the people who receive funds change each period.", "why2031Not2026": "Major infrastructure deals seen by 2026 show power held by a few owners and risks when users cannot switch. A sharp work break and broad sharing of machine income are possible W02 paths, not results shown by the assigned proof.", "worldIds": [ "W02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-20", "EWF-22", "PC-S01", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter wherever income from machine systems is held by a small group of owners. The assigned evidence does not show that a broad ownership plan already works in any place." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Ownership law, public and pension funds, local host costs, and access to clear ownership records vary by legal area." ], "unknowns": [ "How income from owners in more than one country would be valued and taxed", "Whether public claims survive when an owner leaves or sells", "How to value host costs without overruling local consent" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Lawmakers, courts, and well-run public or member-owned funds set and enforce the claims. Asset managers cannot replace public rights with private control.", "remedyIfItFails": "Correct ownership records and payments, obtain an independent valuation, challenge a broken legal duty, and seek review by a court or regulator.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Broad ownership cannot promise equal wealth." }, "nonPromises": [ "Equal wealth", "Stable income from assets", "Public ownership by itself creates enough household income", "Ownership claims remove physical limits" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Ownership exists only on paper", "whoIsHurt": "Families or local groups given a label but no voting power, information, or income", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish control and income rights, provide the full ownership record, and allow a court or regulator to enforce the claim." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Middle groups capture the income", "whoIsHurt": "Families, pension members, or public funds whose share is reduced by hidden fees or transfers", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Trace gross income, costs, fees, and final payments. Recover unfair charges and correct the payment record." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Host communities bear the costs", "whoIsHurt": "People and public services near the assets that use local power, water, land, or roads", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Record local costs, fund upkeep and repair, and include host obligations in the enforceable ownership terms." }, { "harmOrFailure": "People are left out of ownership claims", "whoIsHurt": "Small holders and local public funds whose records do not appear in the final claim", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Accept more than one form of proof, provide a human review, and correct both the ownership and payment records." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Checked records of who owns each asset. Records of income, costs, fees, and final payments. Access for independent checks.", "whyNeeded": "A broad claim can reach families only if the same records link owners, income, deductions, payments, and the assets that earned the money.", "ifMissing": "Without a clear chain of records, middle groups or private owners can capture income without being seen.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-20", "EWF-22", "PC-S01", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Enforceable ownership and income rights. Duties to act with care and set a fair value. Tax, sharing, and court enforcement.", "whyNeeded": "The claim needs control and income rights backed by law, not just a promise from asset owners.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, local people may hold a paper label but have no income, information, or remedy.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-20", "EWF-22", "PC-S01", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Working computer and utility systems, upkeep, records of local costs, and measured output.", "whyNeeded": "The income comes from real assets. Their operation, upkeep, and local costs set how much value can be shared.", "ifMissing": "Without the physical link, payments lose touch with performance, upkeep costs, and harm borne by host communities.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-20", "EWF-22", "PC-S01", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-008", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-institutional-15" ], "actorOrPerson": "Public budget teams, lawmakers, public and group owners, families, service providers, and investors in basic systems", "triggerOrContext": "In W02, wages and job taxes may fall while income from machine systems rises. Income must reach families soon enough to support spending. Public money must still fund energy, homes, care, learning, and climate work.", "plainJob": "Show whether income from machine systems reaches families. Show whether people can still buy basic needs. Show whether public services and real-world work get funds where needs remain.", "observableCompletion": "Public leaders can match income from ownership, income paid outside jobs, unpaid bills, and real spending with public income, staffed services, and funded work. They can explain what they will fix when these links break.", "repeatedDemand": "Income, prices, unpaid bills, tax income, funded work, and regional need change often after the work break.", "why2031Not2026": "The assigned proof does not show that this full chain works across an economy. W02 depends on the plan closing each link. Cheap tech alone does not create spending.", "worldIds": [ "w02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "EWF-20", "EWF-22", "PC-S01", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter wherever income must move from machine owners to families and public services. The assigned evidence does not show this full chain working in any economy." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Tax rules, public funds, ownership, living costs, service capacity, and local needs vary by legal area and place." ], "unknowns": [ "How large and sudden a W02 work break would be", "How much household income supports real spending rather than only raising asset prices", "Whether investment continues in places where household demand weakens" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Lawmakers and public budget teams set taxes, income support, and budgets. Owners of major systems report their income and delivery, but they do not decide what level of public support is enough.", "remedyIfItFails": "Hold a public budget review, correct support payments, address unfair ownership, and review funded work that failed to deliver.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "No one plan will fit every economy." } ], "nonPromises": [ "One global plan", "An investment announcement becomes a service", "Stable national totals mean fair local sharing" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Capital spending hides a fall in family demand", "whoIsHurt": "Families and small firms whose spending power falls while headline investment looks strong", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish family spending, unpaid bills, and local service use beside capital spending. Adjust income support when demand falls." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Asset prices rise without home security", "whoIsHurt": "Renters and lower-income families whose housing costs rise faster than their support", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Track housing and other basic costs, adjust support, and fund real housing rather than relying on higher asset values." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Lost payroll tax defunds services", "whoIsHurt": "Patients, learners, service workers, and local people who depend on public budgets", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Set a budget trigger that replaces lost payroll tax and protects staffing for key services." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Cheap machine work arrives but local income does not", "whoIsHurt": "People in places that buy machine-based work but receive little ownership income or public funding", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish the local income and service gap. In the W02 scenario, adjust transfers and funded work when the gap grows." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Privacy-safe records of ownership income, household income, unpaid bills, spending, public funds, and services. Local views and a history of revisions.", "whyNeeded": "Public leaders must see where income, spending power, demand, public funds, and completed work stop linking together.", "ifMissing": "Without those views, stable national figures can hide falling household demand and failed local services.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "EWF-20", "EWF-22", "PC-S01", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Power to tax and set ownership claims. Budget rules and public checks. Rules against unfair control and unfair sharing.", "whyNeeded": "Moving income into household support and public services requires legal claims, budget power, and a clear way to fix errors.", "ifMissing": "Without those powers, public bodies can see a break but cannot redirect income, budgets, or concentrated ownership.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "EWF-20", "EWF-22", "PC-S01", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Funded housing, energy, and services. Staff and upkeep. Local service and unpaid-bill records.", "whyNeeded": "Demand matters only if money ends in homes, energy, care, and other staffed services.", "ifMissing": "Without delivery, accounts may look healthy while housing, care, energy, or climate work still fails.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "EWF-20", "EWF-22", "PC-S01", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-institutional-15", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Public budget teams, lawmakers, public and group owners, families, service providers, and investors in basic systems", "triggerOrContext": "In W02, wages and job taxes may fall while income from machine systems rises. Income must reach families soon enough to support spending. Public money must still fund energy, homes, care, learning, and climate work.", "plainJob": "Show whether income from machine systems reaches families. Show whether people can still buy basic needs. Show whether public services and real-world work get funds where needs remain.", "observableCompletion": "Public leaders can match income from ownership, income paid outside jobs, unpaid bills, and real spending with public income, staffed services, and funded work. They can explain what they will fix when these links break.", "repeatedDemand": "Income, prices, unpaid bills, tax income, funded work, and regional need change often after the work break.", "why2031Not2026": "The assigned proof does not show that this full chain works across an economy. W02 depends on the plan closing each link. Cheap tech alone does not create spending.", "worldIds": [ "W02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "EWF-20", "EWF-22", "PC-S01", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter wherever income must move from machine owners to families and public services. The assigned evidence does not show this full chain working in any economy." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Tax rules, public funds, ownership, living costs, service capacity, and local needs vary by legal area and place." ], "unknowns": [ "How large and sudden a W02 work break would be", "How much household income supports real spending rather than only raising asset prices", "Whether investment continues in places where household demand weakens" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Lawmakers and public budget teams set taxes, income support, and budgets. Owners of major systems report their income and delivery, but they do not decide what level of public support is enough.", "remedyIfItFails": "Hold a public budget review, correct support payments, address unfair ownership, and review funded work that failed to deliver.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "No one plan will fit every economy." }, "nonPromises": [ "One global plan", "An investment announcement becomes a service", "Stable national totals mean fair local sharing" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Capital spending hides a fall in family demand", "whoIsHurt": "Families and small firms whose spending power falls while headline investment looks strong", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish family spending, unpaid bills, and local service use beside capital spending. Adjust income support when demand falls." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Asset prices rise without home security", "whoIsHurt": "Renters and lower-income families whose housing costs rise faster than their support", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Track housing and other basic costs, adjust support, and fund real housing rather than relying on higher asset values." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Lost payroll tax defunds services", "whoIsHurt": "Patients, learners, service workers, and local people who depend on public budgets", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Set a budget trigger that replaces lost payroll tax and protects staffing for key services." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Cheap machine work arrives but local income does not", "whoIsHurt": "People in places that buy machine-based work but receive little ownership income or public funding", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish the local income and service gap. In the W02 scenario, adjust transfers and funded work when the gap grows." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Privacy-safe records of ownership income, household income, unpaid bills, spending, public funds, and services. Local views and a history of revisions.", "whyNeeded": "Public leaders must see where income, spending power, demand, public funds, and completed work stop linking together.", "ifMissing": "Without those views, stable national figures can hide falling household demand and failed local services.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "EWF-20", "EWF-22", "PC-S01", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Power to tax and set ownership claims. Budget rules and public checks. Rules against unfair control and unfair sharing.", "whyNeeded": "Moving income into household support and public services requires legal claims, budget power, and a clear way to fix errors.", "ifMissing": "Without those powers, public bodies can see a break but cannot redirect income, budgets, or concentrated ownership.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "EWF-20", "EWF-22", "PC-S01", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Funded housing, energy, and services. Staff and upkeep. Local service and unpaid-bill records.", "whyNeeded": "Demand matters only if money ends in homes, energy, care, and other staffed services.", "ifMissing": "Without delivery, accounts may look healthy while housing, care, energy, or climate work still fails.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "EWF-20", "EWF-22", "PC-S01", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-009", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-institutional-20" ], "actorOrPerson": "Health services, schools, local public bodies, public and group owners, workers, and local people", "triggerOrContext": "Income from machine systems may support demand in W02. Yet sites, teachers, carers, doctors, builders, and climate workers may still be scarce.", "plainJob": "Turn shared machine income into staff, safe and well-kept places, and finished work where people live. Show that the promised service really happened.", "observableCompletion": "Funds pay for staff and upkeep. People receive the care, learning, or climate safety. Limits on workers and sites are clear. Proof of the result lasts beyond a public claim or online contact.", "repeatedDemand": "Care needs, school groups, hazards, upkeep, staff, and supplies change each year and after shocks.", "why2031Not2026": "Guidance, need reports, and policy plans in 2026 do not prove delivery. W02 works only if demand turns into enough staff, sites, tools, and supplies.", "worldIds": [ "w02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "HBD-05", "PC-S01", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter wherever promised income or funding must become staffed care, learning, or climate work. The assigned evidence does not show where local delivery will be strong enough." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Public funds, trained staff, buildings, transport, supplies, and local needs vary by service and place." ], "unknowns": [ "Whether money reaches the places with the greatest service need", "Which local groups can turn new funds into safe delivery", "How to compare local results without forcing one model on every place" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Public bodies and responsible service groups fund delivery under democratic, professional, labour, and local planning rules.", "remedyIfItFails": "Service users can appeal denial or unsafe replacement. Workers can challenge low staffing. Funders can recover money or pause failed delivery. Communities can challenge siting and harm.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Funding cannot create staff, sites, or supplies at once." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Instant physical abundance", "Funding by itself creates a skilled workforce", "An online service is equal to hands-on care or teaching" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Computer-made care or learning replaces staff", "whoIsHurt": "Patients and learners who need trained people, judgement, or hands-on help", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Set clear staffed-service requirements, test human handoffs, and restore staff when the digital route replaces needed care or teaching." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Buildings open without staff or upkeep", "whoIsHurt": "Service users and workers left with an empty or unsafe facility", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Release funds in stages only when trained staff, supplies, and upkeep are ready. Pause opening when they are not." }, { "harmOrFailure": "An alert leads to no real change", "whoIsHurt": "People still exposed to a health, learning, or climate risk after it is reported", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Name the team, action, and deadline. Publish whether the work was completed and offer review when it was not." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Funding goes mainly to places already ready to deliver", "whoIsHurt": "Communities with high need but fewer staff, sites, or supplies", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Reserve funds for local training and delivery support, publish the allocation, and allow a challenge to persistent gaps." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Records that link funding to delivery. Evidence of service results, staffing, upkeep, and failure.", "whyNeeded": "Shared income must be traced to a staffed and maintained service, not just an announcement or online contact.", "ifMissing": "Without that link, spending can be reported as investment while no person receives care, learning, or climate safety.", "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "HBD-05", "PC-S01", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Public funding and buying power. Professional and labour duties. A service appeal and local planning rights.", "whyNeeded": "Delivery needs a responsible buyer, trained staff, and enforceable rights for users and host communities.", "ifMissing": "Without them, money can be captured, staff can be replaced unsafely, and failed delivery has no remedy.", "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "HBD-05", "PC-S01", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Teachers, carers, clinicians, builders, repair teams, sites, transport, power, materials, and long-term upkeep.", "whyNeeded": "Care, learning, and climate work depend on people and maintained places.", "ifMissing": "Without those people and places, cheap digital work and available money do not produce the promised service or safety.", "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "HBD-05", "PC-S01", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-institutional-20", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Health services, schools, local public bodies, public and group owners, workers, and local people", "triggerOrContext": "Income from machine systems may support demand in W02. Yet sites, teachers, carers, doctors, builders, and climate workers may still be scarce.", "plainJob": "Turn shared machine income into staff, safe and well-kept places, and finished work where people live. Show that the promised service really happened.", "observableCompletion": "Funds pay for staff and upkeep. People receive the care, learning, or climate safety. Limits on workers and sites are clear. Proof of the result lasts beyond a public claim or online contact.", "repeatedDemand": "Care needs, school groups, hazards, upkeep, staff, and supplies change each year and after shocks.", "why2031Not2026": "Guidance, need reports, and policy plans in 2026 do not prove delivery. W02 works only if demand turns into enough staff, sites, tools, and supplies.", "worldIds": [ "W02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "HBD-05", "PC-S01", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter wherever promised income or funding must become staffed care, learning, or climate work. The assigned evidence does not show where local delivery will be strong enough." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Public funds, trained staff, buildings, transport, supplies, and local needs vary by service and place." ], "unknowns": [ "Whether money reaches the places with the greatest service need", "Which local groups can turn new funds into safe delivery", "How to compare local results without forcing one model on every place" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Public bodies and responsible service groups fund delivery under democratic, professional, labour, and local planning rules.", "remedyIfItFails": "Service users can appeal denial or unsafe replacement. Workers can challenge low staffing. Funders can recover money or pause failed delivery. Communities can challenge siting and harm.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Funding cannot create staff, sites, or supplies at once." }, "nonPromises": [ "Instant physical abundance", "Funding by itself creates a skilled workforce", "An online service is equal to hands-on care or teaching" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Computer-made care or learning replaces staff", "whoIsHurt": "Patients and learners who need trained people, judgement, or hands-on help", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Set clear staffed-service requirements, test human handoffs, and restore staff when the digital route replaces needed care or teaching." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Buildings open without staff or upkeep", "whoIsHurt": "Service users and workers left with an empty or unsafe facility", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Release funds in stages only when trained staff, supplies, and upkeep are ready. Pause opening when they are not." }, { "harmOrFailure": "An alert leads to no real change", "whoIsHurt": "People still exposed to a health, learning, or climate risk after it is reported", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Name the team, action, and deadline. Publish whether the work was completed and offer review when it was not." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Funding goes mainly to places already ready to deliver", "whoIsHurt": "Communities with high need but fewer staff, sites, or supplies", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Reserve funds for local training and delivery support, publish the allocation, and allow a challenge to persistent gaps." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Records that link funding to delivery. Evidence of service results, staffing, upkeep, and failure.", "whyNeeded": "Shared income must be traced to a staffed and maintained service, not just an announcement or online contact.", "ifMissing": "Without that link, spending can be reported as investment while no person receives care, learning, or climate safety.", "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "HBD-05", "PC-S01", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Public funding and buying power. Professional and labour duties. A service appeal and local planning rights.", "whyNeeded": "Delivery needs a responsible buyer, trained staff, and enforceable rights for users and host communities.", "ifMissing": "Without them, money can be captured, staff can be replaced unsafely, and failed delivery has no remedy.", "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "HBD-05", "PC-S01", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Teachers, carers, clinicians, builders, repair teams, sites, transport, power, materials, and long-term upkeep.", "whyNeeded": "Care, learning, and climate work depend on people and maintained places.", "ifMissing": "Without those people and places, cheap digital work and available money do not produce the promised service or safety.", "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "HBD-05", "PC-S01", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-010", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-institutional-21" ], "actorOrPerson": "People near major sites, power and water firms, families, repair teams, public services, and owners of machine systems", "triggerOrContext": "Cheap machine-based knowledge work may drive heavy use and spending in W02. Chips, power, grids, cooling, water, buildings, machines, and upkeep remain tied to real places and stay scarce.", "plainJob": "Let us see the local cost and benefit before power, water, land, or links are assigned, protect key use, give hosts a real say, and repair harm when promised limits fail.", "observableCompletion": "The owner shows the workload and resources needed. Other uses are compared. Key services stay reliable. Host areas can agree or use a lawful review. Funds cover upkeep and harm. Actual effects are checked after use.", "repeatedDemand": "Workload, weather, drought, grid limits, building work, upkeep, and local needs keep changing.", "why2031Not2026": "Energy and site figures in 2026 are broad totals or forecasts. They do not show local sharing results. In W02, far more demand must still be shared in a fair and trusted way.", "worldIds": [ "w02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "C04", "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03", "PC-S04" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter near sites that use large amounts of power, water, land, cooling, or grid capacity. The assigned evidence does not show which host places face the greatest pressure." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Local resource limits, public-service needs, prices, host rights, and the ability to repair harm vary by place." ], "unknowns": [ "The power, water, land, and cooling used by each workload", "The combined effect on a local grid or water basin", "How owners based elsewhere would share income with host communities", "Which other local uses would lose access to scarce resources" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Utilities, water bodies, and planning authorities assign public resources. Host communities, workers, courts, and safety bodies keep their lawful rights to consent, challenge, or stop harmful use.", "remedyIfItFails": "Set legal limits, correct unfair prices, pay for harm, restore damaged services or land, pause the use, and hold a public review.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "No authority can promise unlimited power, water, land, or sites." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Unlimited physical resources", "One sharing rule that fits every place", "Broad ownership cancels local harm", "Better efficiency always lowers total demand" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Host communities are shut out", "whoIsHurt": "People near a major site who bear local cost but cannot shape the decision", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Give early notice, access to the evidence, a public hearing, and a lawful way to challenge or pause the plan." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Homes or services are rationed first", "whoIsHurt": "Households, hospitals, schools, and small firms that share scarce power or water", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Protect a clear baseline for key use, publish shortage rules, and require the large user to cut back first when agreed limits are reached." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Resource overuse is hidden", "whoIsHurt": "People and ecosystems harmed by water, land, or energy use that is not measured locally", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Use local meters, publish actual use, stop breaches, and fund repair of the damaged resource." }, { "harmOrFailure": "A project is abandoned after costs are sunk", "whoIsHurt": "Taxpayers, workers, and host communities left with debt, half-built sites, or damaged land", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Use staged approvals and repair bonds. Require a funded plan to finish, repurpose, or safely remove the site." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Benefits leave while upkeep and risk stay local", "whoIsHurt": "Host communities and public services that carry long-term costs without enough local income", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish where income goes, fund local upkeep and repair, and let host bodies enforce the agreed payment." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Meters that show who used each resource. Records of competing uses, incidents, and broken terms.", "whyNeeded": "Host communities and public bodies need local evidence to compare uses and enforce limits after a site opens.", "ifMissing": "Without it, overuse, rationing, or broken terms cannot be traced to the responsible user.", "evidenceIds": [ "C04", "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03", "PC-S04" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Duties to share scarce resources fairly. Rights for host communities. Review of prices and environmental harm. Powers to limit, pause, repair, and require payment.", "whyNeeded": "Scarce public resources need a fair process and real powers to stop or repair harm.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, owners can take power, land, or grid links while hosts carry the costs.", "evidenceIds": [ "C04", "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03", "PC-S04" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Chips, grids, transformers, power, cooling, water, land, buildings, machines, spare parts, and repair teams.", "whyNeeded": "W02's digital abundance still depends on a complete physical chain and long-term upkeep.", "ifMissing": "Without that chain, promised capacity cannot be built, operated, or restored.", "evidenceIds": [ "C04", "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03", "PC-S04" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-institutional-21", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "People near major sites, power and water firms, families, repair teams, public services, and owners of machine systems", "triggerOrContext": "Cheap machine-based knowledge work may drive heavy use and spending in W02. Chips, power, grids, cooling, water, buildings, machines, and upkeep remain tied to real places and stay scarce.", "plainJob": "Let us see the local cost and benefit before power, water, land, or links are assigned, protect key use, give hosts a real say, and repair harm when promised limits fail.", "observableCompletion": "The owner shows the workload and resources needed. Other uses are compared. Key services stay reliable. Host areas can agree or use a lawful review. Funds cover upkeep and harm. Actual effects are checked after use.", "repeatedDemand": "Workload, weather, drought, grid limits, building work, upkeep, and local needs keep changing.", "why2031Not2026": "Energy and site figures in 2026 are broad totals or forecasts. They do not show local sharing results. In W02, far more demand must still be shared in a fair and trusted way.", "worldIds": [ "W02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "C04", "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03", "PC-S04" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter near sites that use large amounts of power, water, land, cooling, or grid capacity. The assigned evidence does not show which host places face the greatest pressure." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Local resource limits, public-service needs, prices, host rights, and the ability to repair harm vary by place." ], "unknowns": [ "The power, water, land, and cooling used by each workload", "The combined effect on a local grid or water basin", "How owners based elsewhere would share income with host communities", "Which other local uses would lose access to scarce resources" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Utilities, water bodies, and planning authorities assign public resources. Host communities, workers, courts, and safety bodies keep their lawful rights to consent, challenge, or stop harmful use.", "remedyIfItFails": "Set legal limits, correct unfair prices, pay for harm, restore damaged services or land, pause the use, and hold a public review.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "No authority can promise unlimited power, water, land, or sites." }, "nonPromises": [ "Unlimited physical resources", "One sharing rule that fits every place", "Broad ownership cancels local harm", "Better efficiency always lowers total demand" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Host communities are shut out", "whoIsHurt": "People near a major site who bear local cost but cannot shape the decision", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Give early notice, access to the evidence, a public hearing, and a lawful way to challenge or pause the plan." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Homes or services are rationed first", "whoIsHurt": "Households, hospitals, schools, and small firms that share scarce power or water", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Protect a clear baseline for key use, publish shortage rules, and require the large user to cut back first when agreed limits are reached." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Resource overuse is hidden", "whoIsHurt": "People and ecosystems harmed by water, land, or energy use that is not measured locally", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Use local meters, publish actual use, stop breaches, and fund repair of the damaged resource." }, { "harmOrFailure": "A project is abandoned after costs are sunk", "whoIsHurt": "Taxpayers, workers, and host communities left with debt, half-built sites, or damaged land", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Use staged approvals and repair bonds. Require a funded plan to finish, repurpose, or safely remove the site." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Benefits leave while upkeep and risk stay local", "whoIsHurt": "Host communities and public services that carry long-term costs without enough local income", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish where income goes, fund local upkeep and repair, and let host bodies enforce the agreed payment." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Meters that show who used each resource. Records of competing uses, incidents, and broken terms.", "whyNeeded": "Host communities and public bodies need local evidence to compare uses and enforce limits after a site opens.", "ifMissing": "Without it, overuse, rationing, or broken terms cannot be traced to the responsible user.", "evidenceIds": [ "C04", "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03", "PC-S04" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Duties to share scarce resources fairly. Rights for host communities. Review of prices and environmental harm. Powers to limit, pause, repair, and require payment.", "whyNeeded": "Scarce public resources need a fair process and real powers to stop or repair harm.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, owners can take power, land, or grid links while hosts carry the costs.", "evidenceIds": [ "C04", "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03", "PC-S04" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Chips, grids, transformers, power, cooling, water, land, buildings, machines, spare parts, and repair teams.", "whyNeeded": "W02's digital abundance still depends on a complete physical chain and long-term upkeep.", "ifMissing": "Without that chain, promised capacity cannot be built, operated, or restored.", "evidenceIds": [ "C04", "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03", "PC-S04" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-011", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-institutional-23" ], "actorOrPerson": "Local people, people receiving support, civic volunteers, migrants, disabled people, and people who choose not to take part", "triggerOrContext": "Groups may want to credit useful work after paid jobs shrink. Income and services may also use online records. This creates pressure to join ID, payment, task, and status records.", "plainJob": "Let me receive key income and services without exposing each task, and let me correct or challenge any record that changes my rights or public standing.", "observableCompletion": "A person can see which record is used for each choice. They share only needed facts. They keep lawful income when they decline useful work. A human can fix errors. Leaving one group does not remove other rights.", "repeatedDemand": "A new task, support review, move, ID change, or record exchange can create an error or unfair use of power.", "why2031Not2026": "Public online systems and gaps in support show the duty in 2026. W02 adds a new risk: groups may join income, useful work, and status into one gate.", "worldIds": [ "w02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "SC-G07", "SC-G08" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter wherever income, services, civic work, and public status use linked records. The assigned evidence shows a risk of exclusion but does not compare the risk faced by different groups." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Identity rules, privacy rights, offline routes, human appeals, and the choice not to take part vary by service and legal area." ], "unknowns": [ "Which record separations remain workable across public bodies", "Whether an offline route receives the same treatment", "How rights and appeals work when records cross borders" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Public bodies may use records only for a stated lawful purpose. No civic group or private provider may make income, identity, or key services depend on unrelated participation.", "remedyIfItFails": "Give notice and access to the record. Let the person correct it, share only what is needed, use an offline route, seek a human appeal, move records, and erase data where the law allows.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Some public duties still require a person to identify themselves." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Complete anonymity for every public duty", "No eligibility checks", "A participation record makes a decision fair or lawful" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Civic service becomes compulsory", "whoIsHurt": "People who need income or services but do not choose the approved activity", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep income and key services separate from participation. Provide a clear right to say no and a human appeal." }, { "harmOrFailure": "One record error blocks income and services", "whoIsHurt": "People whose linked identity, payment, or participation record is wrong", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep records separate, restore income and services through a manual route, and correct each affected record." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Status records become surveillance", "whoIsHurt": "People whose private activity is used to judge their public standing", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Limit data to the stated purpose, show every use, allow deletion where lawful, and penalise hidden reuse." }, { "harmOrFailure": "A supplier traps the records", "whoIsHurt": "People and public bodies that cannot move data or change provider", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Require open export formats, a tested move process, and a human route that works during the switch." }, { "harmOrFailure": "People with weak records must reveal too much", "whoIsHurt": "People with missing or informal records who need to prove a right or useful role", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Accept alternate proof, collect only what is needed, and use a human review instead of forcing broad disclosure." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Records kept separate by purpose. Clear access rules. A history of each decision and correction. Controls to share only what is needed and move records.", "whyNeeded": "A person can refuse and fix an error only if unrelated records stay separate and every high-impact use is visible.", "ifMissing": "Without separation, one identifier or error can spread across income, services, participation, and public status.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "SC-G07", "SC-G08" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Limits on purpose and data use. No unrelated participation condition. Fair process, record transfer, and a human appeal.", "whyNeeded": "The separation must be backed by law. Clear rules must control who can join records or use them to block key rights.", "ifMissing": "Without those rules, organisations can quietly recombine records and make civic participation compulsory.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "SC-G07", "SC-G08" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: A staffed offline correction route. An accessible hearing or contact channel. Service continuity during a device or network failure.", "whyNeeded": "A person blocked by the digital record needs a reachable route outside the same failing system.", "ifMissing": "Without it, the appeal exists only inside the broken identity or device gate.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "SC-G07", "SC-G08" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-institutional-23", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Local people, people receiving support, civic volunteers, migrants, disabled people, and people who choose not to take part", "triggerOrContext": "Groups may want to credit useful work after paid jobs shrink. Income and services may also use online records. This creates pressure to join ID, payment, task, and status records.", "plainJob": "Let me receive key income and services without exposing each task, and let me correct or challenge any record that changes my rights or public standing.", "observableCompletion": "A person can see which record is used for each choice. They share only needed facts. They keep lawful income when they decline useful work. A human can fix errors. Leaving one group does not remove other rights.", "repeatedDemand": "A new task, support review, move, ID change, or record exchange can create an error or unfair use of power.", "why2031Not2026": "Public online systems and gaps in support show the duty in 2026. W02 adds a new risk: groups may join income, useful work, and status into one gate.", "worldIds": [ "W02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "SC-G07", "SC-G08" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter wherever income, services, civic work, and public status use linked records. The assigned evidence shows a risk of exclusion but does not compare the risk faced by different groups." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Identity rules, privacy rights, offline routes, human appeals, and the choice not to take part vary by service and legal area." ], "unknowns": [ "Which record separations remain workable across public bodies", "Whether an offline route receives the same treatment", "How rights and appeals work when records cross borders" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Public bodies may use records only for a stated lawful purpose. No civic group or private provider may make income, identity, or key services depend on unrelated participation.", "remedyIfItFails": "Give notice and access to the record. Let the person correct it, share only what is needed, use an offline route, seek a human appeal, move records, and erase data where the law allows.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Some public duties still require a person to identify themselves." }, "nonPromises": [ "Complete anonymity for every public duty", "No eligibility checks", "A participation record makes a decision fair or lawful" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Civic service becomes compulsory", "whoIsHurt": "People who need income or services but do not choose the approved activity", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep income and key services separate from participation. Provide a clear right to say no and a human appeal." }, { "harmOrFailure": "One record error blocks income and services", "whoIsHurt": "People whose linked identity, payment, or participation record is wrong", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep records separate, restore income and services through a manual route, and correct each affected record." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Status records become surveillance", "whoIsHurt": "People whose private activity is used to judge their public standing", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Limit data to the stated purpose, show every use, allow deletion where lawful, and penalise hidden reuse." }, { "harmOrFailure": "A supplier traps the records", "whoIsHurt": "People and public bodies that cannot move data or change provider", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Require open export formats, a tested move process, and a human route that works during the switch." }, { "harmOrFailure": "People with weak records must reveal too much", "whoIsHurt": "People with missing or informal records who need to prove a right or useful role", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Accept alternate proof, collect only what is needed, and use a human review instead of forcing broad disclosure." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Records kept separate by purpose. Clear access rules. A history of each decision and correction. Controls to share only what is needed and move records.", "whyNeeded": "A person can refuse and fix an error only if unrelated records stay separate and every high-impact use is visible.", "ifMissing": "Without separation, one identifier or error can spread across income, services, participation, and public status.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "SC-G07", "SC-G08" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Limits on purpose and data use. No unrelated participation condition. Fair process, record transfer, and a human appeal.", "whyNeeded": "The separation must be backed by law. Clear rules must control who can join records or use them to block key rights.", "ifMissing": "Without those rules, organisations can quietly recombine records and make civic participation compulsory.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "SC-G07", "SC-G08" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: A staffed offline correction route. An accessible hearing or contact channel. Service continuity during a device or network failure.", "whyNeeded": "A person blocked by the digital record needs a reachable route outside the same failing system.", "ifMissing": "Without it, the appeal exists only inside the broken identity or device gate.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "SC-G07", "SC-G08" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-012", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-institutional-25" ], "actorOrPerson": "People and public services in places with weak networks, tight public funds, or little local income from machine systems", "triggerOrContext": "In W02, cheap machine-based knowledge work may spread faster than local ownership, networks, public funds, and services. This is a possible W02 path, not a result shown by the assigned proof.", "plainJob": "If this happens here, make local income and key services easy to reach. Publish the rules, offer human help to fix mistakes, and keep enough staff and supplies to deliver.", "observableCompletion": "The public body publishes who can get help and how. People can use a local route, ask a person to fix mistakes, and reach key services. Staff, power, links, travel, and supplies are ready for the work.", "repeatedDemand": "Local ownership, network access, public funds, and the ability to run services can change after shocks or policy choices.", "why2031Not2026": "The assigned proof shows gaps in network access, public funds, social safety, and local services. It does not show a W02 funding plan at work. This need follows from a possible W02 path for 2031, not a result shown by the assigned proof.", "worldIds": [ "w02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "AC-36", "EWF-05", "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "PC-S01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter most in places with fewer staff and public funds, weak networks, or little local income from machine systems. Need and access can still vary within one country." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Local ownership, network access, public funds, staff, and supplies vary by place. The assigned evidence does not prove one path for all countries." ], "unknowns": [ "The assigned W01/W02 evidence gives no direct support for cross-border funding or portable rights.", "We do not know how much income from machine systems stays local.", "We do not know which local rules can reach people missed by digital records.", "We do not know whether local staff, power, transport, and supplies can keep services running." ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "National, regional, and local public bodies can publish rules for local income and services. They can fund staff and provide human review.", "remedyIfItFails": "Publish the rules. Offer an offline route and a person who can correct mistakes. Keep backup power, ways to pay, staff, transport, supplies, and local repair.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Public bodies cannot promise the same W02 plan or the same local income in every place." } ], "nonPromises": [ "The same plan as richer places", "Equal local income from machine systems", "Reliable infrastructure everywhere", "Money alone creates a valued social role" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Work changes but local income does not rise", "whoIsHurt": "People and public services in places with weak networks, tight budgets, or little local machine income", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish local income and service gaps. In the W02 scenario, review the plan when work changes without wider local benefit." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Rules hide who can get help", "whoIsHurt": "People who need income or services but cannot see the eligibility rule", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish plain rules, offer an offline route, and let a person review and correct the decision." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Funding is promised but services do not arrive", "whoIsHurt": "Service users and local workers waiting for staff, supplies, or a working site", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Tie funds to proof of staff and delivery. Reclaim or redirect money when the promised service is not delivered." }, { "harmOrFailure": "A network or payment failure stops income and services", "whoIsHurt": "People and services that rely on one digital identity, network, or payment route", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep offline and cash alternatives, backup power and links, and a process to repair records when systems return." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Distant owners gain while local services lack funds", "whoIsHurt": "Local people and public services near the systems that create income", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish ownership and local funding flows. Use a public review to fund staff, upkeep, and repair where the systems operate." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Simple local records. Clear service status. Backup routes when networks fail. Later checks and corrections.", "whyNeeded": "People need to reach income and services when identity records or networks are weak. Records must be corrected when links return.", "ifMissing": "Without backups, one network, identity, or payment failure could stop income, services, and proof at the same time.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-36", "EWF-05", "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "PC-S01" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Published eligibility rules. Human review. Clear ownership records. Public checks on how funds are shared.", "whyNeeded": "People need to know who can receive help and how to correct an error. Public bodies need to see who owns key systems and where funds go.", "ifMissing": "Without clear rules, people may be shut out and money may remain with a few owners while local services lack funds.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-36", "EWF-05", "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "PC-S01" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Backup power and links. Cash or another way to pay. Staff, transport, supplies, and local repair.", "whyNeeded": "A W02 plan works only if income and key services can reach people in places with fewer staff and public funds.", "ifMissing": "Without delivery capacity, a right can exist on paper while people cannot receive money or keep services open.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-36", "EWF-05", "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "PC-S01" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-institutional-25", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "People and public services in places with weak networks, tight public funds, or little local income from machine systems", "triggerOrContext": "In W02, cheap machine-based knowledge work may spread faster than local ownership, networks, public funds, and services. This is a possible W02 path, not a result shown by the assigned proof.", "plainJob": "If this happens here, make local income and key services easy to reach. Publish the rules, offer human help to fix mistakes, and keep enough staff and supplies to deliver.", "observableCompletion": "The public body publishes who can get help and how. People can use a local route, ask a person to fix mistakes, and reach key services. Staff, power, links, travel, and supplies are ready for the work.", "repeatedDemand": "Local ownership, network access, public funds, and the ability to run services can change after shocks or policy choices.", "why2031Not2026": "The assigned proof shows gaps in network access, public funds, social safety, and local services. It does not show a W02 funding plan at work. This need follows from a possible W02 path for 2031, not a result shown by the assigned proof.", "worldIds": [ "W02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "AC-36", "EWF-05", "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "PC-S01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter most in places with fewer staff and public funds, weak networks, or little local income from machine systems. Need and access can still vary within one country." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Local ownership, network access, public funds, staff, and supplies vary by place. The assigned evidence does not prove one path for all countries." ], "unknowns": [ "The assigned W01/W02 evidence gives no direct support for cross-border funding or portable rights.", "We do not know how much income from machine systems stays local.", "We do not know which local rules can reach people missed by digital records.", "We do not know whether local staff, power, transport, and supplies can keep services running." ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "National, regional, and local public bodies can publish rules for local income and services. They can fund staff and provide human review.", "remedyIfItFails": "Publish the rules. Offer an offline route and a person who can correct mistakes. Keep backup power, ways to pay, staff, transport, supplies, and local repair.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Public bodies cannot promise the same W02 plan or the same local income in every place." }, "nonPromises": [ "The same plan as richer places", "Equal local income from machine systems", "Reliable infrastructure everywhere", "Money alone creates a valued social role" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Work changes but local income does not rise", "whoIsHurt": "People and public services in places with weak networks, tight budgets, or little local machine income", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish local income and service gaps. In the W02 scenario, review the plan when work changes without wider local benefit." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Rules hide who can get help", "whoIsHurt": "People who need income or services but cannot see the eligibility rule", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish plain rules, offer an offline route, and let a person review and correct the decision." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Funding is promised but services do not arrive", "whoIsHurt": "Service users and local workers waiting for staff, supplies, or a working site", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Tie funds to proof of staff and delivery. Reclaim or redirect money when the promised service is not delivered." }, { "harmOrFailure": "A network or payment failure stops income and services", "whoIsHurt": "People and services that rely on one digital identity, network, or payment route", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep offline and cash alternatives, backup power and links, and a process to repair records when systems return." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Distant owners gain while local services lack funds", "whoIsHurt": "Local people and public services near the systems that create income", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish ownership and local funding flows. Use a public review to fund staff, upkeep, and repair where the systems operate." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Simple local records. Clear service status. Backup routes when networks fail. Later checks and corrections.", "whyNeeded": "People need to reach income and services when identity records or networks are weak. Records must be corrected when links return.", "ifMissing": "Without backups, one network, identity, or payment failure could stop income, services, and proof at the same time.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-36", "EWF-05", "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "PC-S01" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Published eligibility rules. Human review. Clear ownership records. Public checks on how funds are shared.", "whyNeeded": "People need to know who can receive help and how to correct an error. Public bodies need to see who owns key systems and where funds go.", "ifMissing": "Without clear rules, people may be shut out and money may remain with a few owners while local services lack funds.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-36", "EWF-05", "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "PC-S01" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Backup power and links. Cash or another way to pay. Staff, transport, supplies, and local repair.", "whyNeeded": "A W02 plan works only if income and key services can reach people in places with fewer staff and public funds.", "ifMissing": "Without delivery capacity, a right can exist on paper while people cannot receive money or keep services open.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-36", "EWF-05", "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "PC-S01" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-013", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-institutional-b-001" ], "actorOrPerson": "Competition authority, data regulator and public-interest enforcer", "triggerOrContext": "A few owners capture machine returns and bundle capability, identity, payment, distribution and personal history while entry and household demand weaken.", "plainJob": "Show that a person can move their identity, records and relationship history to a real alternative, finish an appeal, and keep essential access.", "observableCompletion": "Timed switching, provider entry, identity/data/relational-memory export, service continuity and appeal-completion tests all pass for affected groups; a failed test names a duty-holder and enforceable correction.", "repeatedDemand": "Re-tested after each major integration, contract change, acquisition, model retirement, service denial and remedy order.", "why2031Not2026": "In 2026 concentration and switching concerns are observed, but W03 adds the conditional cognition break, bundled diffusion and captive histories expected by 2030-31.", "worldIds": [ "w03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "AC-21", "EWF-20", "EWF-22", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: if W03 creates tightly bundled digital gates, switching and appeal tests could matter across many countries", "OECD evidence covers concentration and switching problems, while EU rules offer one legal route", "Countries that import the main technology stack may need extra tests of whether a real alternative exists" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Legal powers, market structure and access to alternative providers differ by country", "A data export is more useful where identity and service rules can read it", "Lower-capacity regulators may need shared testing or enforcement support" ], "unknowns": [ "Market definitions change quickly", "Formal portability may remain unusable", "The political durability of structural remedies is unresolved" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Competition, data-protection, identity and sector regulators within their legal powers", "remedyIfItFails": "Interim access, portability, separation, appeal deadlines, human review and structural relief where law permits", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A portability standard or policy announcement is not proof of successful exit, restored service or adjudicated abuse." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise a competitive market", "Does not prove concentration caused every denial", "Does not promise uninterrupted service" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Ceremonial export with no receiving provider", "whoIsHurt": "A person trying to leave a dominant provider without losing identity, records or essential service", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Require a live transfer test to a named receiving provider; keep the old service running until the new one works" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Appeal delay while housing, income or care is lost", "whoIsHurt": "The person waiting for housing, income or care while the appeal runs", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Continue the essential service during appeal, set a short deadline and provide a named human reviewer" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Compliance cost further entrenches incumbents", "whoIsHurt": "Small providers and the people who need a real alternative", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Scale duties to risk, fund shared compliance tools and remove rules that only the largest provider can afford" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Interoperable identity, data and memory formats", "whyNeeded": "A receiving service must be able to read the person's identity, records and saved history, or the promised move is only a file download.", "ifMissing": "If formats do not work together, people lose history or essential access and remain trapped with the old provider.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-21", "EWF-20" ] }, { "dependency": "Auditable switching and appeal logs", "whyNeeded": "Logs show each switching step, delay, refusal and appeal result, so regulators can tell whether exit works for real people.", "ifMissing": "Without a trustworthy record, a provider can claim the switch worked while the user cannot prove where it failed.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-21", "EWF-20" ] }, { "dependency": "Jurisdiction, structural-remedy powers, due process and cross-regulator coordination", "whyNeeded": "Regulators need clear legal power, fair procedure and coordination to order a fix across several linked markets.", "ifMissing": "Without those powers, tests may reveal lock-in but no body can require access, separation, a deadline or a completed appeal.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ] }, { "dependency": "Alternative providers need compute, grid, network and staffed-service capacity", "whyNeeded": "A rival needs real computing power, electricity, networks and staff before it can receive people leaving the dominant provider.", "ifMissing": "Without usable alternatives, portable data has nowhere useful to go and switching cannot protect service continuity.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-21" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-institutional-b-001", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Competition authority, data regulator and public-interest enforcer", "triggerOrContext": "A few owners capture machine returns and bundle capability, identity, payment, distribution and personal history while entry and household demand weaken.", "plainJob": "Show that a person can move their identity, records and relationship history to a real alternative, finish an appeal, and keep essential access.", "observableCompletion": "Timed switching, provider entry, identity/data/relational-memory export, service continuity and appeal-completion tests all pass for affected groups; a failed test names a duty-holder and enforceable correction.", "repeatedDemand": "Re-tested after each major integration, contract change, acquisition, model retirement, service denial and remedy order.", "why2031Not2026": "In 2026 concentration and switching concerns are observed, but W03 adds the conditional cognition break, bundled diffusion and captive histories expected by 2030-31.", "worldIds": [ "W03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "AC-21", "EWF-20", "EWF-22", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: if W03 creates tightly bundled digital gates, switching and appeal tests could matter across many countries", "OECD evidence covers concentration and switching problems, while EU rules offer one legal route", "Countries that import the main technology stack may need extra tests of whether a real alternative exists" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Legal powers, market structure and access to alternative providers differ by country", "A data export is more useful where identity and service rules can read it", "Lower-capacity regulators may need shared testing or enforcement support" ], "unknowns": [ "Market definitions change quickly", "Formal portability may remain unusable", "The political durability of structural remedies is unresolved" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Competition, data-protection, identity and sector regulators within their legal powers", "remedyIfItFails": "Interim access, portability, separation, appeal deadlines, human review and structural relief where law permits", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A portability standard or policy announcement is not proof of successful exit, restored service or adjudicated abuse." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise a competitive market", "Does not prove concentration caused every denial", "Does not promise uninterrupted service" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Ceremonial export with no receiving provider", "whoIsHurt": "A person trying to leave a dominant provider without losing identity, records or essential service", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Require a live transfer test to a named receiving provider; keep the old service running until the new one works" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Appeal delay while housing, income or care is lost", "whoIsHurt": "The person waiting for housing, income or care while the appeal runs", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Continue the essential service during appeal, set a short deadline and provide a named human reviewer" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Compliance cost further entrenches incumbents", "whoIsHurt": "Small providers and the people who need a real alternative", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Scale duties to risk, fund shared compliance tools and remove rules that only the largest provider can afford" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Interoperable identity, data and memory formats", "whyNeeded": "A receiving service must be able to read the person's identity, records and saved history, or the promised move is only a file download.", "ifMissing": "If formats do not work together, people lose history or essential access and remain trapped with the old provider.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-21", "EWF-20" ] }, { "dependency": "Auditable switching and appeal logs", "whyNeeded": "Logs show each switching step, delay, refusal and appeal result, so regulators can tell whether exit works for real people.", "ifMissing": "Without a trustworthy record, a provider can claim the switch worked while the user cannot prove where it failed.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-21", "EWF-20" ] }, { "dependency": "Jurisdiction, structural-remedy powers, due process and cross-regulator coordination", "whyNeeded": "Regulators need clear legal power, fair procedure and coordination to order a fix across several linked markets.", "ifMissing": "Without those powers, tests may reveal lock-in but no body can require access, separation, a deadline or a completed appeal.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ] }, { "dependency": "Alternative providers need compute, grid, network and staffed-service capacity", "whyNeeded": "A rival needs real computing power, electricity, networks and staff before it can receive people leaving the dominant provider.", "ifMissing": "Without usable alternatives, portable data has nowhere useful to go and switching cannot protect service continuity.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-21" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-014", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-institutional-b-002" ], "actorOrPerson": "Fiscal, social-protection and local-revenue authority", "triggerOrContext": "Paid cognitive work, labour income and payroll tax fall before broad ownership or adequate replacement income forms, while strategic owner investment continues.", "plainJob": "Get enough money to affected households fast enough that they can pay for basics and local services do not collapse.", "observableCompletion": "Coverage, payment speed, hardship, local income and essential services stay stable or recover for each affected group and place after the work shock. The test also checks what households can still afford after overdue bills.", "repeatedDemand": "Monthly during displacement waves and whenever eligibility, prices, rent, utility costs or employment status changes.", "why2031Not2026": "Current evidence shows exposure and large protection gaps, not the W03 economy-wide cognition, income, payroll and demand chain; the recurring job appears if that chain is observed by 2028-30.", "worldIds": [ "w03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "src-oecd-ai-trajectories-2026", "src-metr-long-tasks-2025", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024", "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "EWF-20" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: W03 could weaken wages, tax receipts and local demand in many economies", "The protection gap may be greatest where benefits cover few workers or payments are slow", "The need matters locally when rent, food, energy or service cuts arrive before new income" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Countries have very different tax bases, welfare systems and borrowing room", "People paid informally may be harder to reach with standard payroll evidence", "Local authorities vary in their power to keep services open" ], "unknowns": [ "No joined global series proves the full demand loop", "Adequacy and informal-household coverage remain hard to compare", "Strategic investment may temporarily offset contraction" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Legislatures, treasuries, social-protection agencies and local authorities", "remedyIfItFails": "Emergency income, utility and debt relief, corrected eligibility, fiscal transfers and public equity claims where authorised", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "An account, payment rail or nominal benefit does not establish adequate, portable or timely support." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise a universal income settlement", "Does not claim exposure equals displacement", "Does not guarantee aggregate demand recovery" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Support arrives after eviction or debt compounding", "whoIsHurt": "A household already close to eviction, disconnection or unpayable debt", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Release emergency money immediately, pause eviction or disconnection and correct the full payment with back pay" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Narrow targeting excludes informal or document-poor households", "whoIsHurt": "People with weak documents or income outside standard payroll records", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Accept other proof, provide assisted review and pay from the date help should have started" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Falling local revenue cuts human services and reinforces enclosure", "whoIsHurt": "Residents and frontline staff who depend on local clinics, schools and support", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Send stabilisation funds directly to threatened services and publish whether hours, staff and access recover" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Current income and payment evidence", "whyNeeded": "Recent income and payment records show who lost money, how urgent the gap is and whether support arrived.", "ifMissing": "Old or incomplete records can send help to the wrong time or household, after debt or eviction has already grown.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-15" ] }, { "dependency": "Assisted and auditable eligibility processing", "whyNeeded": "Assisted processing lets staff handle missing documents and unusual work patterns, while an audit trail shows how each decision was made.", "ifMissing": "An opaque automated route can repeat exclusions at speed and leave people unable to correct a wrong result.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-15" ] }, { "dependency": "Appropriation, tax authority, eligibility law and intergovernmental transfer rules", "whyNeeded": "Tax, spending and transfer rules give public bodies lawful money and a way to move it to households and local services.", "ifMissing": "Without legal authority or an approved budget, officials can identify the shock but cannot fund a timely response.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15" ] }, { "dependency": "Affordable housing, utilities, food and staffed services must still exist to buy", "whyNeeded": "Cash protects living standards only when homes, power, food and staffed services are available at prices people can pay.", "ifMissing": "If supply has collapsed, extra money chases too few essentials and hardship continues despite a successful payment.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-institutional-b-002", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Fiscal, social-protection and local-revenue authority", "triggerOrContext": "Paid cognitive work, labour income and payroll tax fall before broad ownership or adequate replacement income forms, while strategic owner investment continues.", "plainJob": "Get enough money to affected households fast enough that they can pay for basics and local services do not collapse.", "observableCompletion": "Coverage, payment speed, hardship, local income and essential services stay stable or recover for each affected group and place after the work shock. The test also checks what households can still afford after overdue bills.", "repeatedDemand": "Monthly during displacement waves and whenever eligibility, prices, rent, utility costs or employment status changes.", "why2031Not2026": "Current evidence shows exposure and large protection gaps, not the W03 economy-wide cognition, income, payroll and demand chain; the recurring job appears if that chain is observed by 2028-30.", "worldIds": [ "W03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "src-oecd-ai-trajectories-2026", "src-metr-long-tasks-2025", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024", "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "EWF-20" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: W03 could weaken wages, tax receipts and local demand in many economies", "The protection gap may be greatest where benefits cover few workers or payments are slow", "The need matters locally when rent, food, energy or service cuts arrive before new income" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Countries have very different tax bases, welfare systems and borrowing room", "People paid informally may be harder to reach with standard payroll evidence", "Local authorities vary in their power to keep services open" ], "unknowns": [ "No joined global series proves the full demand loop", "Adequacy and informal-household coverage remain hard to compare", "Strategic investment may temporarily offset contraction" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Legislatures, treasuries, social-protection agencies and local authorities", "remedyIfItFails": "Emergency income, utility and debt relief, corrected eligibility, fiscal transfers and public equity claims where authorised", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "An account, payment rail or nominal benefit does not establish adequate, portable or timely support." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise a universal income settlement", "Does not claim exposure equals displacement", "Does not guarantee aggregate demand recovery" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Support arrives after eviction or debt compounding", "whoIsHurt": "A household already close to eviction, disconnection or unpayable debt", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Release emergency money immediately, pause eviction or disconnection and correct the full payment with back pay" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Narrow targeting excludes informal or document-poor households", "whoIsHurt": "People with weak documents or income outside standard payroll records", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Accept other proof, provide assisted review and pay from the date help should have started" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Falling local revenue cuts human services and reinforces enclosure", "whoIsHurt": "Residents and frontline staff who depend on local clinics, schools and support", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Send stabilisation funds directly to threatened services and publish whether hours, staff and access recover" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Current income and payment evidence", "whyNeeded": "Recent income and payment records show who lost money, how urgent the gap is and whether support arrived.", "ifMissing": "Old or incomplete records can send help to the wrong time or household, after debt or eviction has already grown.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-15" ] }, { "dependency": "Assisted and auditable eligibility processing", "whyNeeded": "Assisted processing lets staff handle missing documents and unusual work patterns, while an audit trail shows how each decision was made.", "ifMissing": "An opaque automated route can repeat exclusions at speed and leave people unable to correct a wrong result.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-15" ] }, { "dependency": "Appropriation, tax authority, eligibility law and intergovernmental transfer rules", "whyNeeded": "Tax, spending and transfer rules give public bodies lawful money and a way to move it to households and local services.", "ifMissing": "Without legal authority or an approved budget, officials can identify the shock but cannot fund a timely response.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15" ] }, { "dependency": "Affordable housing, utilities, food and staffed services must still exist to buy", "whyNeeded": "Cash protects living standards only when homes, power, food and staffed services are available at prices people can pay.", "ifMissing": "If supply has collapsed, extra money chases too few essentials and hardship continues despite a successful payment.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-015", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-institutional-b-003" ], "actorOrPerson": "Public eligibility and essential-service authority", "triggerOrContext": "Narrow automated support and bundled identity become normal while housing, health, education and climate protection are asset- and credential-gated.", "plainJob": "Tell a person why they were refused, let a real human fix it quickly, and keep urgent help running during the appeal.", "observableCompletion": "Every consequential denial has understandable notice, traceable evidence, an identified human authority, deadline-bound correction, document-light and offline routes, and interim continuity where delay risks serious harm.", "repeatedDemand": "At every denial, data mismatch, identity failure, change of address or status, outage and appeal.", "why2031Not2026": "Safeguards and digital-identity laws exist as current intent or staged implementation; W03 makes bundled, high-volume automated exclusion a repeated 2031 pressure.", "worldIds": [ "w03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: linked automated gates in W03 could make one wrong refusal spread across essential services", "EU rules provide one route for notice, identity and review", "Places with weak records, low connectivity or few public staff need strong assisted and offline routes" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "The right to human review and continued service differs by law", "Identity systems handle missing or conflicting records in different ways", "Language access, travel distance and staff capacity change whether an appeal is usable" ], "unknowns": [ "Rules do not prove enforcement", "Identity coverage and correction quality are uneven", "Comparable appeal-completion evidence is sparse" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The statutory service decision-maker, not the model or vendor", "remedyIfItFails": "Interim service, correction, human reconsideration, restoration and external review", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Explanation alone is not remedy; automation cannot decide outside delegated law or replace the accountable duty-holder." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise eligibility", "Does not treat digital identity as universal", "Does not guarantee that every denial was automated error" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Recursive denial across linked services", "whoIsHurt": "A person whose first mistaken refusal triggers more refusals", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Stop the refusal from spreading, restore urgent services and correct the shared record at its source" }, { "harmOrFailure": "No human owns the exception", "whoIsHurt": "A person with an urgent case that no automated route can handle", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Assign a named human with power to grant temporary access and fix the decision" }, { "harmOrFailure": "People abandon appeal because time, language or documents are unaffordable", "whoIsHurt": "People who cannot afford repeated travel, documents, data or translation", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Provide free phone, local and translated appeal routes; pause the deadline while help is unavailable" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Decision provenance, error correction and resilient identity matching", "whyNeeded": "The service must show which rule and record caused a refusal, match the right person and correct the source error.", "ifMissing": "Without that trail, the same bad data can trigger repeated refusals across linked services.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ] }, { "dependency": "Notice, due process, non-discrimination, service-continuity and review duties", "whyNeeded": "Notice, fair review and continued-service duties turn a request for help into an enforceable right with a named decision owner.", "ifMissing": "Without those duties, a person may receive an explanation but still lose the service while nobody is required to fix it.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ] }, { "dependency": "Staffed offices, phone routes and offline records during network or identity failure", "whyNeeded": "Staffed offices, phones and offline records keep a correction route open when identity checks, devices or networks fail.", "ifMissing": "Without a non-digital route, the people most affected by an outage cannot reach the human review that is meant to protect them.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-15" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-institutional-b-003", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Public eligibility and essential-service authority", "triggerOrContext": "Narrow automated support and bundled identity become normal while housing, health, education and climate protection are asset- and credential-gated.", "plainJob": "Tell a person why they were refused, let a real human fix it quickly, and keep urgent help running during the appeal.", "observableCompletion": "Every consequential denial has understandable notice, traceable evidence, an identified human authority, deadline-bound correction, document-light and offline routes, and interim continuity where delay risks serious harm.", "repeatedDemand": "At every denial, data mismatch, identity failure, change of address or status, outage and appeal.", "why2031Not2026": "Safeguards and digital-identity laws exist as current intent or staged implementation; W03 makes bundled, high-volume automated exclusion a repeated 2031 pressure.", "worldIds": [ "W03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: linked automated gates in W03 could make one wrong refusal spread across essential services", "EU rules provide one route for notice, identity and review", "Places with weak records, low connectivity or few public staff need strong assisted and offline routes" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "The right to human review and continued service differs by law", "Identity systems handle missing or conflicting records in different ways", "Language access, travel distance and staff capacity change whether an appeal is usable" ], "unknowns": [ "Rules do not prove enforcement", "Identity coverage and correction quality are uneven", "Comparable appeal-completion evidence is sparse" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The statutory service decision-maker, not the model or vendor", "remedyIfItFails": "Interim service, correction, human reconsideration, restoration and external review", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Explanation alone is not remedy; automation cannot decide outside delegated law or replace the accountable duty-holder." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise eligibility", "Does not treat digital identity as universal", "Does not guarantee that every denial was automated error" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Recursive denial across linked services", "whoIsHurt": "A person whose first mistaken refusal triggers more refusals", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Stop the refusal from spreading, restore urgent services and correct the shared record at its source" }, { "harmOrFailure": "No human owns the exception", "whoIsHurt": "A person with an urgent case that no automated route can handle", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Assign a named human with power to grant temporary access and fix the decision" }, { "harmOrFailure": "People abandon appeal because time, language or documents are unaffordable", "whoIsHurt": "People who cannot afford repeated travel, documents, data or translation", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Provide free phone, local and translated appeal routes; pause the deadline while help is unavailable" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Decision provenance, error correction and resilient identity matching", "whyNeeded": "The service must show which rule and record caused a refusal, match the right person and correct the source error.", "ifMissing": "Without that trail, the same bad data can trigger repeated refusals across linked services.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ] }, { "dependency": "Notice, due process, non-discrimination, service-continuity and review duties", "whyNeeded": "Notice, fair review and continued-service duties turn a request for help into an enforceable right with a named decision owner.", "ifMissing": "Without those duties, a person may receive an explanation but still lose the service while nobody is required to fix it.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ] }, { "dependency": "Staffed offices, phone routes and offline records during network or identity failure", "whyNeeded": "Staffed offices, phones and offline records keep a correction route open when identity checks, devices or networks fail.", "ifMissing": "Without a non-digital route, the people most affected by an outage cannot reach the human review that is meant to protect them.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-15" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-016", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-institutional-b-004" ], "actorOrPerson": "Energy, water, land, minerals and infrastructure regulator with host-community authority", "triggerOrContext": "Concentrated owners secure priority connections and strategic capacity while ratepayers and host communities face scarcity, cost transfer and weak common investment.", "plainJob": "Show who gets the power, water and land, who pays, and let the people carrying the cost stop or change an unfair plan.", "observableCompletion": "Allocation, queue position, tariffs, water and land use, host compensation, service effects and veto or appeal outcomes are published and independently checked before and during operation.", "repeatedDemand": "At each siting, connection, capacity expansion, tariff case, drought restriction, mineral shock and contract renewal.", "why2031Not2026": "Current sources establish projected loads, physical lead times and concentrated supply, not a delivered 2031 premium-corridor order; W03 makes allocation conflict recurrent.", "worldIds": [ "w03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03", "PC-S13", "E13" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Large compute and chip projects could affect power, water and land in the United States, China, Europe and other production centres", "The direct costs fall on the host town, watershed and grid area", "Regions that import the technology may carry supply or energy costs without receiving the main profits" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Grid shortages, water stress and land rights differ sharply by place", "Some regulators can change tariffs or permits; others cannot", "Ownership of the project changes who receives the benefits and who can be held to account" ], "unknowns": [ "Demand projections are wide", "Customer allocation is opaque", "Local water, tariff and compensation data are not globally comparable" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Utilities, resource regulators, planning bodies, courts and legally recognised host communities", "remedyIfItFails": "Reallocation, conditions, compensation, tariff correction, disclosure, pause or refusal", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A planned data centre, chip fab or grid reservation is not commissioned capacity or a right to override local law." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise abundant compute", "Does not assign a universal social value to a load", "Does not guarantee host consent" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Priority load delays homes and common services", "whoIsHurt": "Households, housing projects and public services left waiting for power or water", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish who moved in the queue, reassess the priority load and reserve capacity for essential local services" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Water or land cost is hidden", "whoIsHurt": "Residents, farmers and ecosystems around the host site", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish metered use, enforce water and land limits and fund repair of verified damage" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Compensation buys silence without continuing remedy", "whoIsHurt": "Host communities carrying costs after the first payment is spent", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep monitoring and complaint rights open for the project's life, with power to change or pause the permit" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Metering and auditable capacity-allocation records", "whyNeeded": "Meters and allocation records show how much power and water a project uses, when it uses it and which other users wait.", "ifMissing": "Without measured use and queue data, costs can be hidden and an unfair priority decision cannot be tested.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "PC-S02" ] }, { "dependency": "Utility, water, planning, environmental, ratepayer and consent rules", "whyNeeded": "Utility, planning, environmental and consent rules give authorities a lawful way to set limits, change tariffs, require repair or refuse a plan.", "ifMissing": "Without those powers, publishing the burden does not let affected people change the project or recover loss.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "PC-S02" ] }, { "dependency": "Grids, transformers, cooling, water, land, chips, minerals and repair capacity", "whyNeeded": "The project and the local services around it both depend on real grids, cooling, water, land, materials and repair crews.", "ifMissing": "If any of these are missing, an approved allocation stays on paper or takes capacity from homes and public services.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03", "PC-S13", "E13" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-institutional-b-004", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Energy, water, land, minerals and infrastructure regulator with host-community authority", "triggerOrContext": "Concentrated owners secure priority connections and strategic capacity while ratepayers and host communities face scarcity, cost transfer and weak common investment.", "plainJob": "Show who gets the power, water and land, who pays, and let the people carrying the cost stop or change an unfair plan.", "observableCompletion": "Allocation, queue position, tariffs, water and land use, host compensation, service effects and veto or appeal outcomes are published and independently checked before and during operation.", "repeatedDemand": "At each siting, connection, capacity expansion, tariff case, drought restriction, mineral shock and contract renewal.", "why2031Not2026": "Current sources establish projected loads, physical lead times and concentrated supply, not a delivered 2031 premium-corridor order; W03 makes allocation conflict recurrent.", "worldIds": [ "W03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03", "PC-S13", "E13" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Large compute and chip projects could affect power, water and land in the United States, China, Europe and other production centres", "The direct costs fall on the host town, watershed and grid area", "Regions that import the technology may carry supply or energy costs without receiving the main profits" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Grid shortages, water stress and land rights differ sharply by place", "Some regulators can change tariffs or permits; others cannot", "Ownership of the project changes who receives the benefits and who can be held to account" ], "unknowns": [ "Demand projections are wide", "Customer allocation is opaque", "Local water, tariff and compensation data are not globally comparable" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Utilities, resource regulators, planning bodies, courts and legally recognised host communities", "remedyIfItFails": "Reallocation, conditions, compensation, tariff correction, disclosure, pause or refusal", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A planned data centre, chip fab or grid reservation is not commissioned capacity or a right to override local law." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise abundant compute", "Does not assign a universal social value to a load", "Does not guarantee host consent" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Priority load delays homes and common services", "whoIsHurt": "Households, housing projects and public services left waiting for power or water", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish who moved in the queue, reassess the priority load and reserve capacity for essential local services" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Water or land cost is hidden", "whoIsHurt": "Residents, farmers and ecosystems around the host site", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish metered use, enforce water and land limits and fund repair of verified damage" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Compensation buys silence without continuing remedy", "whoIsHurt": "Host communities carrying costs after the first payment is spent", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep monitoring and complaint rights open for the project's life, with power to change or pause the permit" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Metering and auditable capacity-allocation records", "whyNeeded": "Meters and allocation records show how much power and water a project uses, when it uses it and which other users wait.", "ifMissing": "Without measured use and queue data, costs can be hidden and an unfair priority decision cannot be tested.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "PC-S02" ] }, { "dependency": "Utility, water, planning, environmental, ratepayer and consent rules", "whyNeeded": "Utility, planning, environmental and consent rules give authorities a lawful way to set limits, change tariffs, require repair or refuse a plan.", "ifMissing": "Without those powers, publishing the burden does not let affected people change the project or recover loss.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "PC-S02" ] }, { "dependency": "Grids, transformers, cooling, water, land, chips, minerals and repair capacity", "whyNeeded": "The project and the local services around it both depend on real grids, cooling, water, land, materials and repair crews.", "ifMissing": "If any of these are missing, an approved allocation stays on paper or takes capacity from homes and public services.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03", "PC-S13", "E13" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-017", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-institutional-b-005" ], "actorOrPerson": "School, college, employer and professional-training authority", "triggerOrContext": "Entry cognitive work erodes while premium human teaching, protected roles and owner-defined credentials become scarce.", "plainJob": "Give a beginner real practice with a person who can teach them, and proof of skill that another school or employer will accept.", "observableCompletion": "Beginners complete supervised work, receive independently assessed portable recognition, enter paid progression and can challenge surveillance or credential denial; outcomes are reported by income, disability, gender and place.", "repeatedDemand": "Every intake, placement, assessment, credential renewal and move between institutions or employers.", "why2031Not2026": "Current evidence shows broad task exposure and mixed short education trials, not a completed entry-work collapse; the need changes materially if W03's 2028-30 diffusion and credential gate arrives.", "worldIds": [ "w03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "src-oecd-ai-trajectories-2026", "src-metr-long-tasks-2025", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "EWF-04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s05", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Global studies suggest many tasks may change, but they do not prove that jobs will disappear", "OECD education evidence helps describe formal systems", "A short Nigeria study shows one local learning result, not a global rule", "Scenario possibility: W03 could remove enough beginner tasks to make supervised practice a larger need by 2031" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Accreditation and apprenticeship rules differ by country and trade", "Access to teachers, devices, workshops and placements varies within countries", "A method that helps in one language or classroom may not transfer", "Employers may value the same credential differently" ], "unknowns": [ "Exposure is not job loss", "Short learning gains may not persist", "No global comparable series measures entry ladders after autonomous-task diffusion" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Accredited education bodies, employers, professional bodies and labour authorities", "remedyIfItFails": "Reassessment, portable credit, accessible supervised placement and external review", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Automated tutoring, task completion or an owner badge does not prove learning, competence, employment or legitimacy." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise a job", "Does not claim all junior work disappears", "Does not treat one pedagogy as globally valid" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Learners receive answers without practice", "whoIsHurt": "Learners who can produce answers but never practise the real task", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Add supervised practical work and reassess skill through observed performance" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Credential lock blocks movement", "whoIsHurt": "A learner or worker whose valid learning record is trapped in one system", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Issue a portable record, require another assessor to review it and preserve earned credit during the dispute" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Premium human teaching widens class gaps", "whoIsHurt": "Low-income and disabled learners priced out of human teaching or placements", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Fund accessible teaching, devices, travel and paid placements; report completion gaps and correct them" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Assessment evidence separated from generated output", "whyNeeded": "Assessment must distinguish what the learner can do from what a generator produced for them.", "ifMissing": "If the two are mixed, a polished answer can hide missing skill and place the learner or others at risk later.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s05" ] }, { "dependency": "Portable credential records", "whyNeeded": "Portable records carry verified practice and credit to another school or employer.", "ifMissing": "Without them, changing provider can erase earned progress and force a learner to start again.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s05" ] }, { "dependency": "Accreditation, labour, child, disability, privacy and appeal rules", "whyNeeded": "These rules protect safety, children, disabled learners, privacy and fair appeal while making a qualification accepted.", "ifMissing": "Without a clear rule set, practice may be unsafe, surveillance may go unchallenged and another institution may reject the result.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ] }, { "dependency": "Teachers, mentors, placements, workshops, devices, connectivity and accessible buildings", "whyNeeded": "Real teachers, mentors, workplaces and accessible facilities provide feedback and hands-on practice that software alone cannot supply.", "ifMissing": "If staff, placements or access are missing, the programme can issue lessons and badges without building usable skill.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s05" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-institutional-b-005", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "School, college, employer and professional-training authority", "triggerOrContext": "Entry cognitive work erodes while premium human teaching, protected roles and owner-defined credentials become scarce.", "plainJob": "Give a beginner real practice with a person who can teach them, and proof of skill that another school or employer will accept.", "observableCompletion": "Beginners complete supervised work, receive independently assessed portable recognition, enter paid progression and can challenge surveillance or credential denial; outcomes are reported by income, disability, gender and place.", "repeatedDemand": "Every intake, placement, assessment, credential renewal and move between institutions or employers.", "why2031Not2026": "Current evidence shows broad task exposure and mixed short education trials, not a completed entry-work collapse; the need changes materially if W03's 2028-30 diffusion and credential gate arrives.", "worldIds": [ "W03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "src-oecd-ai-trajectories-2026", "src-metr-long-tasks-2025", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "EWF-04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s05", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Global studies suggest many tasks may change, but they do not prove that jobs will disappear", "OECD education evidence helps describe formal systems", "A short Nigeria study shows one local learning result, not a global rule", "Scenario possibility: W03 could remove enough beginner tasks to make supervised practice a larger need by 2031" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Accreditation and apprenticeship rules differ by country and trade", "Access to teachers, devices, workshops and placements varies within countries", "A method that helps in one language or classroom may not transfer", "Employers may value the same credential differently" ], "unknowns": [ "Exposure is not job loss", "Short learning gains may not persist", "No global comparable series measures entry ladders after autonomous-task diffusion" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Accredited education bodies, employers, professional bodies and labour authorities", "remedyIfItFails": "Reassessment, portable credit, accessible supervised placement and external review", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Automated tutoring, task completion or an owner badge does not prove learning, competence, employment or legitimacy." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise a job", "Does not claim all junior work disappears", "Does not treat one pedagogy as globally valid" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Learners receive answers without practice", "whoIsHurt": "Learners who can produce answers but never practise the real task", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Add supervised practical work and reassess skill through observed performance" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Credential lock blocks movement", "whoIsHurt": "A learner or worker whose valid learning record is trapped in one system", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Issue a portable record, require another assessor to review it and preserve earned credit during the dispute" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Premium human teaching widens class gaps", "whoIsHurt": "Low-income and disabled learners priced out of human teaching or placements", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Fund accessible teaching, devices, travel and paid placements; report completion gaps and correct them" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Assessment evidence separated from generated output", "whyNeeded": "Assessment must distinguish what the learner can do from what a generator produced for them.", "ifMissing": "If the two are mixed, a polished answer can hide missing skill and place the learner or others at risk later.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s05" ] }, { "dependency": "Portable credential records", "whyNeeded": "Portable records carry verified practice and credit to another school or employer.", "ifMissing": "Without them, changing provider can erase earned progress and force a learner to start again.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s05" ] }, { "dependency": "Accreditation, labour, child, disability, privacy and appeal rules", "whyNeeded": "These rules protect safety, children, disabled learners, privacy and fair appeal while making a qualification accepted.", "ifMissing": "Without a clear rule set, practice may be unsafe, surveillance may go unchallenged and another institution may reject the result.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ] }, { "dependency": "Teachers, mentors, placements, workshops, devices, connectivity and accessible buildings", "whyNeeded": "Real teachers, mentors, workplaces and accessible facilities provide feedback and hands-on practice that software alone cannot supply.", "ifMissing": "If staff, placements or access are missing, the programme can issue lessons and badges without building usable skill.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s05" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-018", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-institutional-b-006" ], "actorOrPerson": "Health, mental-health and social-care commissioner", "triggerOrContext": "Fiscal and demand pressure cuts human services as synthetic support becomes cheaper, more persistent and harder to leave.", "plainJob": "Make sure digital help gets a person to a qualified human when they need one, especially in a crisis, and never pretends to be treatment.", "observableCompletion": "Handoff time, staffed contact, continuity, failed escalation, crisis outcome and voluntary exit are measured by subgroup; every clinical decision retains an accountable human and accessible appeal.", "repeatedDemand": "At each new episode, risk escalation, missed handoff, model change, memory-retention decision and service-capacity review.", "why2031Not2026": "Current relational studies are short and mixed and current health capacity is unequal; W03 conditionally adds institutional substitution and captive memory at scale by 2030-31.", "worldIds": [ "w03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "SC-G06", "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Health-worker shortages make safe routes to human care relevant in many countries", "Online relationship studies cover narrow groups and cannot represent every culture or age", "California law is one example of a local legal response, not a global standard" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Crisis services, clinical rules and staff numbers differ by country", "People use synthetic support differently by age, culture and disability", "A safe handoff is harder where transport, appointments or emergency care are scarce" ], "unknowns": [ "No long global causal evidence on substitution", "Workforce totals hide local access and quality", "Heavy use may reflect prior need" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Licensed clinicians, statutory care bodies and named crisis duty-holders", "remedyIfItFails": "Human reassessment, urgent escalation, restored contact, memory deletion or export and service complaint", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Synthetic attention is not friendship, diagnosis, treatment, consent or a clinical duty-holder." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise treatment capacity", "Does not claim synthetic use causes loneliness or illness", "Does not promise friendship or recovery" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "False reassurance delays care", "whoIsHurt": "A person in distress who delays real care because the system sounds confident", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Show clear limits, arrange fast human reassessment and contact the person again if the handoff fails" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Crisis handoff fails", "whoIsHurt": "A person in crisis and anyone relying on the promised emergency route", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Connect to a staffed crisis service, keep trying until receipt is confirmed and trigger an incident review" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Staff cuts make the synthetic route unavoidable", "whoIsHurt": "Patients forced onto the digital route after appointments or staff are cut", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Restore a phone, in-person or clinical route and prevent contract savings from depending on avoidable staff loss" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Persistent memory raises exit cost", "whoIsHurt": "A person who wants to leave without losing useful history or ongoing care", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Let them delete or export memory, stop persuasion and continue essential care during the move" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Risk detection with conservative escalation", "whyNeeded": "Conservative risk checks identify signs that require a human and escalate even when the system is uncertain.", "ifMissing": "Without them, a calm or confident reply can delay urgent care or miss a crisis.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Memory control, audit logs and service availability", "whyNeeded": "Memory controls let a person inspect, delete or move saved history, while logs show what the service did and whether it was available.", "ifMissing": "Without control and records, people can be locked in by intimate history and cannot prove a failed handoff.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Clinical scope, consent, safeguarding, data, crisis and complaint duties", "whyNeeded": "Clinical, consent and safeguarding duties define what the tool may do, who owns the decision and how a person can complain.", "ifMissing": "Without enforceable limits, a supplier can blur support with treatment and shift responsibility after harm.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI04", "HBD-05" ] }, { "dependency": "Qualified staff, appointments, emergency response, transport and treatment capacity", "whyNeeded": "A digital handoff succeeds only if qualified people, appointments, transport and treatment are actually available.", "ifMissing": "Without human capacity, escalation becomes a message to an empty queue rather than care.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "SC-G06" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-institutional-b-006", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Health, mental-health and social-care commissioner", "triggerOrContext": "Fiscal and demand pressure cuts human services as synthetic support becomes cheaper, more persistent and harder to leave.", "plainJob": "Make sure digital help gets a person to a qualified human when they need one, especially in a crisis, and never pretends to be treatment.", "observableCompletion": "Handoff time, staffed contact, continuity, failed escalation, crisis outcome and voluntary exit are measured by subgroup; every clinical decision retains an accountable human and accessible appeal.", "repeatedDemand": "At each new episode, risk escalation, missed handoff, model change, memory-retention decision and service-capacity review.", "why2031Not2026": "Current relational studies are short and mixed and current health capacity is unequal; W03 conditionally adds institutional substitution and captive memory at scale by 2030-31.", "worldIds": [ "W03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "SC-G06", "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Health-worker shortages make safe routes to human care relevant in many countries", "Online relationship studies cover narrow groups and cannot represent every culture or age", "California law is one example of a local legal response, not a global standard" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Crisis services, clinical rules and staff numbers differ by country", "People use synthetic support differently by age, culture and disability", "A safe handoff is harder where transport, appointments or emergency care are scarce" ], "unknowns": [ "No long global causal evidence on substitution", "Workforce totals hide local access and quality", "Heavy use may reflect prior need" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Licensed clinicians, statutory care bodies and named crisis duty-holders", "remedyIfItFails": "Human reassessment, urgent escalation, restored contact, memory deletion or export and service complaint", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Synthetic attention is not friendship, diagnosis, treatment, consent or a clinical duty-holder." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise treatment capacity", "Does not claim synthetic use causes loneliness or illness", "Does not promise friendship or recovery" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "False reassurance delays care", "whoIsHurt": "A person in distress who delays real care because the system sounds confident", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Show clear limits, arrange fast human reassessment and contact the person again if the handoff fails" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Crisis handoff fails", "whoIsHurt": "A person in crisis and anyone relying on the promised emergency route", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Connect to a staffed crisis service, keep trying until receipt is confirmed and trigger an incident review" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Staff cuts make the synthetic route unavoidable", "whoIsHurt": "Patients forced onto the digital route after appointments or staff are cut", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Restore a phone, in-person or clinical route and prevent contract savings from depending on avoidable staff loss" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Persistent memory raises exit cost", "whoIsHurt": "A person who wants to leave without losing useful history or ongoing care", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Let them delete or export memory, stop persuasion and continue essential care during the move" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Risk detection with conservative escalation", "whyNeeded": "Conservative risk checks identify signs that require a human and escalate even when the system is uncertain.", "ifMissing": "Without them, a calm or confident reply can delay urgent care or miss a crisis.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Memory control, audit logs and service availability", "whyNeeded": "Memory controls let a person inspect, delete or move saved history, while logs show what the service did and whether it was available.", "ifMissing": "Without control and records, people can be locked in by intimate history and cannot prove a failed handoff.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Clinical scope, consent, safeguarding, data, crisis and complaint duties", "whyNeeded": "Clinical, consent and safeguarding duties define what the tool may do, who owns the decision and how a person can complain.", "ifMissing": "Without enforceable limits, a supplier can blur support with treatment and shift responsibility after harm.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI04", "HBD-05" ] }, { "dependency": "Qualified staff, appointments, emergency response, transport and treatment capacity", "whyNeeded": "A digital handoff succeeds only if qualified people, appointments, transport and treatment are actually available.", "ifMissing": "Without human capacity, escalation becomes a message to an empty queue rather than care.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "SC-G06" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-019", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-institutional-b-013" ], "actorOrPerson": "Utility, grid planner and connection commissioner", "triggerOrContext": "Digital plans, renewable installations and new loads grow faster than transformers, transmission, connection and local permission.", "plainJob": "Show which projects actually got connected, when they can deliver power, what they cost, and who had to wait or pay more.", "observableCompletion": "Connection waits and equipment lead times fall while energised capacity, firm service, cost allocation, cancellations and affected-group outcomes are independently reported across participating regions.", "repeatedDemand": "At every queue review, connection offer, equipment delay, network milestone, tariff case and energisation decision.", "why2031Not2026": "2026 evidence reports installed capacity, queues and projected bottlenecks; W04 requires a repeated 2027-31 commissioning cycle rather than more plans or reservations.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "E03", "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Power queues and equipment delays affect both advanced and emerging economies in the IEA evidence", "Scenario possibility: W04 depends on projects moving from reservations to working connections", "Local records are needed because a national total can hide a blocked town or region" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Queue rules, grid ownership and cost sharing differ by market", "A region rich in generation may still lack wires, transformers or storage", "Connection speed says little about price or reliability unless those are measured too" ], "unknowns": [ "Queue totals include projects never built", "Projected loads are wide", "Energised capacity does not by itself establish affordability or firm service" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Utilities, system operators, regulators and planning bodies", "remedyIfItFails": "Queue correction, transparent cancellation, reallocation, cost review, connection condition or refusal", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Installed generation, a reservation or a policy target is not commissioned firm power or permission to operate." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise every queued project a connection", "Does not promise cheap electricity", "Does not treat capacity as usable output" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Speculative projects block viable ones", "whoIsHurt": "Ready housing, community-energy and service projects blocked behind speculative bookings", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Cancel stale queue positions after fair notice and reassign equipment to projects that can build" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Costs shift to households", "whoIsHurt": "Households and small businesses charged for a large customer's connection", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Review cost allocation, refund unfair charges and make the benefiting project pay its share" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Priority loads crowd out common services", "whoIsHurt": "People waiting for homes, transport, clinics or other common services", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Reserve or restore capacity for essential uses and publish the trade-off before approving priority load" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Energisation occurs without maintenance", "whoIsHurt": "Everyone relying on a new connection that fails after launch", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Require funded maintenance, spare equipment and service-quality checks before final payment" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Queue, equipment, energisation and service-quality records", "whyNeeded": "Queue, equipment and service records separate a reserved project from one that has working power at an agreed quality.", "ifMissing": "Without them, speculative bookings and partial installations can be reported as usable capacity.", "evidenceIds": [ "E03", "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02" ] }, { "dependency": "Utility regulation, planning, cost-allocation and appeal rules", "whyNeeded": "Utility and planning rules decide who gets connected, who pays and how a wrong queue decision can be challenged.", "ifMissing": "Without a fair rule and appeal, powerful customers can move costs or delays onto households and smaller projects.", "evidenceIds": [ "E05" ] }, { "dependency": "Transmission, distribution, transformers, generation, storage, cooling, land and skilled crews", "whyNeeded": "Wires, transformers, generation, storage, cooling, land and skilled crews are the physical chain that turns approval into reliable power.", "ifMissing": "If one link is missing, the project remains unpowered or runs unreliably no matter what the queue record says.", "evidenceIds": [ "E03", "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-institutional-b-013", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Utility, grid planner and connection commissioner", "triggerOrContext": "Digital plans, renewable installations and new loads grow faster than transformers, transmission, connection and local permission.", "plainJob": "Show which projects actually got connected, when they can deliver power, what they cost, and who had to wait or pay more.", "observableCompletion": "Connection waits and equipment lead times fall while energised capacity, firm service, cost allocation, cancellations and affected-group outcomes are independently reported across participating regions.", "repeatedDemand": "At every queue review, connection offer, equipment delay, network milestone, tariff case and energisation decision.", "why2031Not2026": "2026 evidence reports installed capacity, queues and projected bottlenecks; W04 requires a repeated 2027-31 commissioning cycle rather than more plans or reservations.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "E03", "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Power queues and equipment delays affect both advanced and emerging economies in the IEA evidence", "Scenario possibility: W04 depends on projects moving from reservations to working connections", "Local records are needed because a national total can hide a blocked town or region" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Queue rules, grid ownership and cost sharing differ by market", "A region rich in generation may still lack wires, transformers or storage", "Connection speed says little about price or reliability unless those are measured too" ], "unknowns": [ "Queue totals include projects never built", "Projected loads are wide", "Energised capacity does not by itself establish affordability or firm service" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Utilities, system operators, regulators and planning bodies", "remedyIfItFails": "Queue correction, transparent cancellation, reallocation, cost review, connection condition or refusal", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Installed generation, a reservation or a policy target is not commissioned firm power or permission to operate." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise every queued project a connection", "Does not promise cheap electricity", "Does not treat capacity as usable output" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Speculative projects block viable ones", "whoIsHurt": "Ready housing, community-energy and service projects blocked behind speculative bookings", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Cancel stale queue positions after fair notice and reassign equipment to projects that can build" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Costs shift to households", "whoIsHurt": "Households and small businesses charged for a large customer's connection", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Review cost allocation, refund unfair charges and make the benefiting project pay its share" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Priority loads crowd out common services", "whoIsHurt": "People waiting for homes, transport, clinics or other common services", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Reserve or restore capacity for essential uses and publish the trade-off before approving priority load" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Energisation occurs without maintenance", "whoIsHurt": "Everyone relying on a new connection that fails after launch", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Require funded maintenance, spare equipment and service-quality checks before final payment" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Queue, equipment, energisation and service-quality records", "whyNeeded": "Queue, equipment and service records separate a reserved project from one that has working power at an agreed quality.", "ifMissing": "Without them, speculative bookings and partial installations can be reported as usable capacity.", "evidenceIds": [ "E03", "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02" ] }, { "dependency": "Utility regulation, planning, cost-allocation and appeal rules", "whyNeeded": "Utility and planning rules decide who gets connected, who pays and how a wrong queue decision can be challenged.", "ifMissing": "Without a fair rule and appeal, powerful customers can move costs or delays onto households and smaller projects.", "evidenceIds": [ "E05" ] }, { "dependency": "Transmission, distribution, transformers, generation, storage, cooling, land and skilled crews", "whyNeeded": "Wires, transformers, generation, storage, cooling, land and skilled crews are the physical chain that turns approval into reliable power.", "ifMissing": "If one link is missing, the project remains unpowered or runs unreliably no matter what the queue record says.", "evidenceIds": [ "E03", "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-020", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-institutional-b-014" ], "actorOrPerson": "Public, cooperative or regulated infrastructure buyer", "triggerOrContext": "Planning and bounded machines improve, but delivery can still fail through low utilisation, hidden interventions, absent spares, staff cuts or unmaintained assets.", "plainJob": "Pay for the service still working safely years later, with people, parts and repairs ready—not just for installing something once.", "observableCompletion": "Contracts tie payment and renewal to uptime, safe useful outcomes, intervention, repair time, energy, staffing, progression, user outcomes and end-of-life evidence; failures trigger correction or stop.", "repeatedDemand": "At procurement, acceptance, each reporting period, incident, maintenance interval, contract renewal and retirement.", "why2031Not2026": "Current sources show installations, bounded operation and lifecycle principles but incomplete field evidence; W04 makes outcome-based lifecycle procurement normal by 2029-31.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S11", "PC-S12", "RSM-13", "HBD-16", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: W04 would make long-term service contracts common for robots, care tools and infrastructure", "Robot installation evidence is concentrated in some regions and industries", "Health-system guidance offers useful service principles, but each country must turn them into enforceable contracts" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Inspection, labour and termination powers differ by sector and country", "Remote or rural places may wait longer for parts and repair staff", "A small public buyer may have less leverage over a global supplier" ], "unknowns": [ "No common safe-use series exists", "Supplier samples change", "Lifecycle cost and hidden support work are sparse" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The buyer, safety regulator and named professional duty-holder within contract and law", "remedyIfItFails": "Withhold payment, require repair or staffing, compensate affected people, suspend, replace or retire", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Procurement cannot waive safety, labour, tenant, clinical, educational, environmental or appeal duties." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise maintenance-free automation", "Does not promise one metric fits every domain", "Does not treat procurement intent as delivery" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Installation totals mask downtime", "whoIsHurt": "Patients, passengers, residents or workers whose installed service is often unavailable", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Measure usable service time, require repair and withhold payment until reliability recovers" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Vendor controls evidence", "whoIsHurt": "Service users and taxpayers when the supplier hides incidents or poor results", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Give an independent auditor access to raw records and reopen payment or approval decisions" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Underpaid humans rescue the service", "whoIsHurt": "Low-paid staff who quietly keep an unreliable system working", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Record the intervention work, correct staffing and pay, and include the labour in the real service cost" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Long contract locks in unsafe or obsolete systems", "whoIsHurt": "People dependent on a system that cannot be safely upgraded or replaced", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Use break clauses, require data and parts transfer, and run a safe replacement plan before ending support" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Independent lifecycle, intervention, incident and outcome evidence", "whyNeeded": "Independent records of uptime, interventions, incidents and user outcomes show whether the service remains safe after installation.", "ifMissing": "Without long-term evidence, a buyer can pay for a machine that is often down or secretly rescued by people.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S11", "PC-S12", "RSM-13", "HBD-16" ] }, { "dependency": "Procurement, audit, liability, labour, sector-safety and termination powers", "whyNeeded": "Contract, audit, labour, liability and termination powers let the buyer demand repair, protect workers and leave an unsafe supplier.", "ifMissing": "Without them, evidence of failure may not change payment, staffing or continued use.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-16", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ] }, { "dependency": "Staff, spare parts, access, depots, energy, buildings and replacement capacity", "whyNeeded": "Staff, parts, depots, energy and safe site access make repair and replacement possible over the whole contract.", "ifMissing": "Without this support chain, a minor failure can close the service for weeks or make the buyer depend on one vendor.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S11", "PC-S12" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-institutional-b-014", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Public, cooperative or regulated infrastructure buyer", "triggerOrContext": "Planning and bounded machines improve, but delivery can still fail through low utilisation, hidden interventions, absent spares, staff cuts or unmaintained assets.", "plainJob": "Pay for the service still working safely years later, with people, parts and repairs ready—not just for installing something once.", "observableCompletion": "Contracts tie payment and renewal to uptime, safe useful outcomes, intervention, repair time, energy, staffing, progression, user outcomes and end-of-life evidence; failures trigger correction or stop.", "repeatedDemand": "At procurement, acceptance, each reporting period, incident, maintenance interval, contract renewal and retirement.", "why2031Not2026": "Current sources show installations, bounded operation and lifecycle principles but incomplete field evidence; W04 makes outcome-based lifecycle procurement normal by 2029-31.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S11", "PC-S12", "RSM-13", "HBD-16", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: W04 would make long-term service contracts common for robots, care tools and infrastructure", "Robot installation evidence is concentrated in some regions and industries", "Health-system guidance offers useful service principles, but each country must turn them into enforceable contracts" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Inspection, labour and termination powers differ by sector and country", "Remote or rural places may wait longer for parts and repair staff", "A small public buyer may have less leverage over a global supplier" ], "unknowns": [ "No common safe-use series exists", "Supplier samples change", "Lifecycle cost and hidden support work are sparse" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The buyer, safety regulator and named professional duty-holder within contract and law", "remedyIfItFails": "Withhold payment, require repair or staffing, compensate affected people, suspend, replace or retire", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Procurement cannot waive safety, labour, tenant, clinical, educational, environmental or appeal duties." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise maintenance-free automation", "Does not promise one metric fits every domain", "Does not treat procurement intent as delivery" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Installation totals mask downtime", "whoIsHurt": "Patients, passengers, residents or workers whose installed service is often unavailable", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Measure usable service time, require repair and withhold payment until reliability recovers" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Vendor controls evidence", "whoIsHurt": "Service users and taxpayers when the supplier hides incidents or poor results", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Give an independent auditor access to raw records and reopen payment or approval decisions" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Underpaid humans rescue the service", "whoIsHurt": "Low-paid staff who quietly keep an unreliable system working", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Record the intervention work, correct staffing and pay, and include the labour in the real service cost" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Long contract locks in unsafe or obsolete systems", "whoIsHurt": "People dependent on a system that cannot be safely upgraded or replaced", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Use break clauses, require data and parts transfer, and run a safe replacement plan before ending support" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Independent lifecycle, intervention, incident and outcome evidence", "whyNeeded": "Independent records of uptime, interventions, incidents and user outcomes show whether the service remains safe after installation.", "ifMissing": "Without long-term evidence, a buyer can pay for a machine that is often down or secretly rescued by people.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S11", "PC-S12", "RSM-13", "HBD-16" ] }, { "dependency": "Procurement, audit, liability, labour, sector-safety and termination powers", "whyNeeded": "Contract, audit, labour, liability and termination powers let the buyer demand repair, protect workers and leave an unsafe supplier.", "ifMissing": "Without them, evidence of failure may not change payment, staffing or continued use.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-16", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ] }, { "dependency": "Staff, spare parts, access, depots, energy, buildings and replacement capacity", "whyNeeded": "Staff, parts, depots, energy and safe site access make repair and replacement possible over the whole contract.", "ifMissing": "Without this support chain, a minor failure can close the service for weeks or make the buyer depend on one vendor.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S11", "PC-S12" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-021", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-institutional-b-015" ], "actorOrPerson": "Safety body, fleet operator and insurer or procurer", "triggerOrContext": "A machine enters a new site, task, population, weather condition or renewal cycle in logistics, infrastructure, care support or another bounded physical domain.", "plainJob": "Prove the machine finishes useful work without hurting people or property, hiding human rescue, or failing when something goes wrong.", "observableCompletion": "For the specific sector and operating domain, its named responsible assessor independently reports multi-year exposure, safe completion, intervention, remote-assistance time, damage, near misses, energy, downtime, repair and recovery, including unseen conditions relevant to that domain.", "repeatedDemand": "Before expansion, after material updates or incidents, at renewal, and whenever the operating domain changes.", "why2031Not2026": "Current installations are large but specialised and public safety benchmarks expose measurement gaps; W04 depends on mature fleet evidence by 2028-31.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S11", "PC-S12", "RSM-13", "HBD-16" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: W04 puts more machines into physical jobs where a failure can hurt people or damage essential services", "Industrial robot evidence is strongest in parts of Asia and other manufacturing centres", "International medical guidance offers principles, but enforcement remains local" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Weather, site layout and the people nearby change the risk", "Liability and incident-reporting rules differ by country and sector", "Remote human help may be hidden in one market and openly staffed in another" ], "unknowns": [ "No universal safe-success measure exists", "Hidden remote support is rarely comparable", "Field lifetime and update safety are sparse" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Independent safety, sector and workplace bodies; the operator remains accountable for operation", "remedyIfItFails": "Restrict domain, require human supervision or repair, suspend deployment, notify affected people and compensate harm", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Nominal task success, unit sales, simulation or vendor claims do not establish safe field operation." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise zero incidents", "Does not infer general autonomy", "Does not compare unlike domains with one safety measure" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Unsafe completion is treated as success", "whoIsHurt": "Workers, patients, passengers and bystanders exposed to a machine that finishes unsafely", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Record harm and human rescue as failure, restrict the task and compensate verified injury or loss" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Remote human labour is hidden", "whoIsHurt": "Remote operators whose hidden interventions make the machine appear autonomous", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Disclose the labour, set safe workloads and pay, and include every intervention in performance results" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Updates invalidate the safety case", "whoIsHurt": "People using a machine whose new software no longer matches its safety proof", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Pause the update or service, repeat the safety tests and roll back until the new version passes" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Expansion outruns recovery and repair", "whoIsHurt": "Communities relying on fleets that grow faster than repair and rescue capacity", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Limit fleet size, add trained rescue and repair capacity, and publish recovery times before expansion" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Exposure-normalised logging, incident evidence, version control and recovery tests", "whyNeeded": "This means comparing incidents with the hours, tasks, sites and people actually exposed, while tracking software versions and recovery tests.", "ifMissing": "Without a fair exposure measure, a small trial can look safer than a busy fleet and a risky update can hide inside an average.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S11", "PC-S12", "RSM-13", "HBD-16" ] }, { "dependency": "Safety cases, inspection, liability, reporting and stop powers", "whyNeeded": "A safety case states the allowed job and evidence; inspection, reporting, liability and stop powers make those limits enforceable.", "ifMissing": "Without these powers, assessors can spot danger but cannot pause the machine, notify people or secure repair.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-16" ] }, { "dependency": "Test sites, maintenance, spares, safe access, communication and trained rescue staff", "whyNeeded": "Real test sites, trained rescue staff, communications, maintenance and spares show that failures can be contained and recovered from.", "ifMissing": "Without them, a system may pass a clean demonstration but fail dangerously in ordinary use.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S11", "PC-S12" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-institutional-b-015", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Safety body, fleet operator and insurer or procurer", "triggerOrContext": "A machine enters a new site, task, population, weather condition or renewal cycle in logistics, infrastructure, care support or another bounded physical domain.", "plainJob": "Prove the machine finishes useful work without hurting people or property, hiding human rescue, or failing when something goes wrong.", "observableCompletion": "For the specific sector and operating domain, its named responsible assessor independently reports multi-year exposure, safe completion, intervention, remote-assistance time, damage, near misses, energy, downtime, repair and recovery, including unseen conditions relevant to that domain.", "repeatedDemand": "Before expansion, after material updates or incidents, at renewal, and whenever the operating domain changes.", "why2031Not2026": "Current installations are large but specialised and public safety benchmarks expose measurement gaps; W04 depends on mature fleet evidence by 2028-31.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S11", "PC-S12", "RSM-13", "HBD-16" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: W04 puts more machines into physical jobs where a failure can hurt people or damage essential services", "Industrial robot evidence is strongest in parts of Asia and other manufacturing centres", "International medical guidance offers principles, but enforcement remains local" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Weather, site layout and the people nearby change the risk", "Liability and incident-reporting rules differ by country and sector", "Remote human help may be hidden in one market and openly staffed in another" ], "unknowns": [ "No universal safe-success measure exists", "Hidden remote support is rarely comparable", "Field lifetime and update safety are sparse" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Independent safety, sector and workplace bodies; the operator remains accountable for operation", "remedyIfItFails": "Restrict domain, require human supervision or repair, suspend deployment, notify affected people and compensate harm", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Nominal task success, unit sales, simulation or vendor claims do not establish safe field operation." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise zero incidents", "Does not infer general autonomy", "Does not compare unlike domains with one safety measure" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Unsafe completion is treated as success", "whoIsHurt": "Workers, patients, passengers and bystanders exposed to a machine that finishes unsafely", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Record harm and human rescue as failure, restrict the task and compensate verified injury or loss" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Remote human labour is hidden", "whoIsHurt": "Remote operators whose hidden interventions make the machine appear autonomous", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Disclose the labour, set safe workloads and pay, and include every intervention in performance results" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Updates invalidate the safety case", "whoIsHurt": "People using a machine whose new software no longer matches its safety proof", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Pause the update or service, repeat the safety tests and roll back until the new version passes" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Expansion outruns recovery and repair", "whoIsHurt": "Communities relying on fleets that grow faster than repair and rescue capacity", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Limit fleet size, add trained rescue and repair capacity, and publish recovery times before expansion" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Exposure-normalised logging, incident evidence, version control and recovery tests", "whyNeeded": "This means comparing incidents with the hours, tasks, sites and people actually exposed, while tracking software versions and recovery tests.", "ifMissing": "Without a fair exposure measure, a small trial can look safer than a busy fleet and a risky update can hide inside an average.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S11", "PC-S12", "RSM-13", "HBD-16" ] }, { "dependency": "Safety cases, inspection, liability, reporting and stop powers", "whyNeeded": "A safety case states the allowed job and evidence; inspection, reporting, liability and stop powers make those limits enforceable.", "ifMissing": "Without these powers, assessors can spot danger but cannot pause the machine, notify people or secure repair.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-16" ] }, { "dependency": "Test sites, maintenance, spares, safe access, communication and trained rescue staff", "whyNeeded": "Real test sites, trained rescue staff, communications, maintenance and spares show that failures can be contained and recovered from.", "ifMissing": "Without them, a system may pass a clean demonstration but fail dangerously in ordinary use.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S11", "PC-S12" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-022", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-institutional-b-016" ], "actorOrPerson": "Regional assurance lab, standards body and public buyer", "triggerOrContext": "Multiple regions commission similar grids, fleets, care and learning systems but have unequal ability to test, certify, maintain and appeal.", "plainJob": "Let a safe smaller provider prove its work once in a fair test, fix a failure, and be accepted in more than one place.", "observableCompletion": "Open test methods, costs, failure reasons and retest results are published. Regions can accept one another's results when safety conditions match, small suppliers can afford the process, and field results show the system still works over time.", "repeatedDemand": "At each standard revision, new domain or region, material update, failed audit and recognition renewal.", "why2031Not2026": "Current standards and national plans are mainly principles or intent; W04 requires operational regional labs and contestable recognition by 2030-31.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "HBD-16", "PC-S09", "PC-S10", "RSM-13" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: W04 needs regional test labs so smaller places can check physical systems before buying them", "Japan and South Korea provide relevant policy examples, not a template for every region", "Shared standards matter globally when equipment and suppliers cross borders" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Regions have different lab budgets, languages and technical skills", "A test designed for one climate or worksite may miss another region's hazards", "Rules for accepting another lab's result differ by country and sector" ], "unknowns": [ "Plans do not prove adoption", "Common tests may not transfer to local risk", "Fixed costs and language can still exclude" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Recognised standards, accreditation, sector and procurement bodies", "remedyIfItFails": "Transparent failure, assisted retest, scoped recognition, corrective action and independent appeal", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Accepting another region's test result cannot cancel local safety, labour, environmental or service-law duties." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise automatic market access", "Does not lower safety for inclusion", "Does not claim one standard fits every physical setting" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Certification entrenches large incumbents", "whoIsHurt": "Small and local suppliers that cannot afford a large-company certification process", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Offer shared labs, clear fees and assisted retests while keeping the same safety threshold" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Paper compliance replaces field evidence", "whoIsHurt": "Workers and service users exposed when paperwork passes but field performance fails", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Require local field trials, publish failures and suspend recognition until corrective tests pass" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Regional recognition imports unsafe assumptions", "whoIsHurt": "Residents facing hazards that the original region's test did not include", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Limit acceptance to matched conditions and require extra local tests for climate, site and population risks" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Informal repair is criminalised without an accessible path", "whoIsHurt": "Local repair workers and communities stranded when only authorised incumbents may fix equipment", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Create an accessible lawful repair route with training, parts access and safety checks" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Open test protocols, versioned evidence and interoperable reporting", "whyNeeded": "Open, versioned test methods let different labs repeat the same check and understand which software and conditions produced the result.", "ifMissing": "Without shared methods, suppliers can submit polished but incomparable evidence and failures cannot be traced after an update.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-16", "RSM-13" ] }, { "dependency": "Accreditation, procurement, recognition and appeal arrangements", "whyNeeded": "Accreditation says which labs are trusted, procurement uses the result, and appeal plus recognition rules let suppliers challenge or reuse a valid test.", "ifMissing": "Without these arrangements, a good test may have no legal effect or each region may charge for the same work again.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "HBD-16" ] }, { "dependency": "Regional labs, test equipment, skilled assessors and local field sites", "whyNeeded": "Regional labs need equipment, skilled assessors and local field sites to test the hazards people will actually face.", "ifMissing": "Without nearby capacity, smaller suppliers and public buyers must rely on distant vendor evidence that may not fit local conditions.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S09", "PC-S10" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-institutional-b-016", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Regional assurance lab, standards body and public buyer", "triggerOrContext": "Multiple regions commission similar grids, fleets, care and learning systems but have unequal ability to test, certify, maintain and appeal.", "plainJob": "Let a safe smaller provider prove its work once in a fair test, fix a failure, and be accepted in more than one place.", "observableCompletion": "Open test methods, costs, failure reasons and retest results are published. Regions can accept one another's results when safety conditions match, small suppliers can afford the process, and field results show the system still works over time.", "repeatedDemand": "At each standard revision, new domain or region, material update, failed audit and recognition renewal.", "why2031Not2026": "Current standards and national plans are mainly principles or intent; W04 requires operational regional labs and contestable recognition by 2030-31.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "HBD-16", "PC-S09", "PC-S10", "RSM-13" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: W04 needs regional test labs so smaller places can check physical systems before buying them", "Japan and South Korea provide relevant policy examples, not a template for every region", "Shared standards matter globally when equipment and suppliers cross borders" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Regions have different lab budgets, languages and technical skills", "A test designed for one climate or worksite may miss another region's hazards", "Rules for accepting another lab's result differ by country and sector" ], "unknowns": [ "Plans do not prove adoption", "Common tests may not transfer to local risk", "Fixed costs and language can still exclude" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Recognised standards, accreditation, sector and procurement bodies", "remedyIfItFails": "Transparent failure, assisted retest, scoped recognition, corrective action and independent appeal", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Accepting another region's test result cannot cancel local safety, labour, environmental or service-law duties." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise automatic market access", "Does not lower safety for inclusion", "Does not claim one standard fits every physical setting" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Certification entrenches large incumbents", "whoIsHurt": "Small and local suppliers that cannot afford a large-company certification process", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Offer shared labs, clear fees and assisted retests while keeping the same safety threshold" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Paper compliance replaces field evidence", "whoIsHurt": "Workers and service users exposed when paperwork passes but field performance fails", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Require local field trials, publish failures and suspend recognition until corrective tests pass" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Regional recognition imports unsafe assumptions", "whoIsHurt": "Residents facing hazards that the original region's test did not include", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Limit acceptance to matched conditions and require extra local tests for climate, site and population risks" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Informal repair is criminalised without an accessible path", "whoIsHurt": "Local repair workers and communities stranded when only authorised incumbents may fix equipment", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Create an accessible lawful repair route with training, parts access and safety checks" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Open test protocols, versioned evidence and interoperable reporting", "whyNeeded": "Open, versioned test methods let different labs repeat the same check and understand which software and conditions produced the result.", "ifMissing": "Without shared methods, suppliers can submit polished but incomparable evidence and failures cannot be traced after an update.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-16", "RSM-13" ] }, { "dependency": "Accreditation, procurement, recognition and appeal arrangements", "whyNeeded": "Accreditation says which labs are trusted, procurement uses the result, and appeal plus recognition rules let suppliers challenge or reuse a valid test.", "ifMissing": "Without these arrangements, a good test may have no legal effect or each region may charge for the same work again.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "HBD-16" ] }, { "dependency": "Regional labs, test equipment, skilled assessors and local field sites", "whyNeeded": "Regional labs need equipment, skilled assessors and local field sites to test the hazards people will actually face.", "ifMissing": "Without nearby capacity, smaller suppliers and public buyers must rely on distant vendor evidence that may not fit local conditions.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S09", "PC-S10" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-023", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-institutional-b-017" ], "actorOrPerson": "Climate-adaptation authority, municipality and funder", "triggerOrContext": "Climate losses, protection gaps and pressure on grids, buildings, water and health create sustained physical renewal demand.", "plainJob": "Prove the project keeps people safer during real heat, flood, fire or outage, including renters and low-income residents, and keep it working.", "observableCompletion": "Deaths, displacement, downtime, losses, prices and essential-service failures fall in funded places when compared with places facing similar hazards. Results are shown separately for renters and low-income residents, and maintenance failures are public.", "repeatedDemand": "Before funding, after each hazard season or event, at maintenance checks, displacement reviews and contract renewal.", "why2031Not2026": "Current evidence establishes climate conditions, finance needs and protection gaps, not the W04 2029-31 maintained avoided-loss cycle.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "C01", "C04", "C10", "E05", "PC-S01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Climate risk is global, while each project's result must be checked in its own place", "Adaptation-finance evidence places much of the unmet need in developing countries", "The insurance dashboard describes European markets only", "Scenario possibility: W04 would tie funding to lower harm, not just completed construction" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Flood, heat, fire and drought require different measures", "Renting, land rights and public-service coverage change who benefits", "Maintenance money and local crews vary long after a project opens", "A project can move risk from one neighbourhood or group to another" ], "unknowns": [ "Needs estimates vary", "Event attribution and hazard normalisation are difficult", "Projects can shift risk across places or groups" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Public climate, planning, utility and emergency bodies with affected-community participation", "remedyIfItFails": "Redesign, maintenance, compensation, anti-displacement action, service correction or project stop", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Finance, an installed asset or insurance coverage does not by itself establish avoided loss, fairness or continuing protection." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise no future loss", "Does not claim every event is attributable to one cause", "Does not equate spending with adaptation" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Maladaptation shifts risk", "whoIsHurt": "Residents downstream or nearby when a project moves heat, flood or water risk onto them", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Map the shifted risk, redesign or stop the project and compensate verified loss" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Green displacement removes beneficiaries", "whoIsHurt": "Renters and low-income residents displaced after their area becomes safer or more valuable", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Add rent and tenure protection before funding, monitor moves and provide a right to return" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Protection fails without grid or staff", "whoIsHurt": "People who depend on cooling, clinics, drainage or alerts that lack power or staff", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Fund the missing grid, workers and maintenance; provide an interim service until the full system works" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Average gains hide renter and low-income harm", "whoIsHurt": "Renters and low-income households hidden by an improved citywide average", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish results by tenure, income and neighbourhood, then redirect funding to groups still facing harm" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Hazard, exposure, service and maintenance measurement", "whyNeeded": "Hazard, exposure, service and maintenance data compare similar risks before and after a project instead of crediting it for easier weather.", "ifMissing": "Without a fair comparison, a quiet year can make a weak project look successful while hidden risks keep growing.", "evidenceIds": [ "C01", "C10" ] }, { "dependency": "Planning, tenant, environmental, emergency, procurement and compensation powers", "whyNeeded": "Planning, tenant, emergency and compensation powers let authorities prevent displacement, correct shifted risk and stop a harmful design.", "ifMissing": "Without those powers, officials can publish unequal outcomes but cannot protect residents or require repair.", "evidenceIds": [ "C04" ] }, { "dependency": "Grids, buildings, cooling, water, drainage, transport, clinics and maintenance crews", "whyNeeded": "Cooling, drainage, power, transport, clinics and maintenance crews are the services that turn a funded design into lower harm.", "ifMissing": "If these systems or staff fail together during a hazard, the project cannot protect the people it was built for.", "evidenceIds": [ "E05", "PC-S01", "C04" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-institutional-b-017", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Climate-adaptation authority, municipality and funder", "triggerOrContext": "Climate losses, protection gaps and pressure on grids, buildings, water and health create sustained physical renewal demand.", "plainJob": "Prove the project keeps people safer during real heat, flood, fire or outage, including renters and low-income residents, and keep it working.", "observableCompletion": "Deaths, displacement, downtime, losses, prices and essential-service failures fall in funded places when compared with places facing similar hazards. Results are shown separately for renters and low-income residents, and maintenance failures are public.", "repeatedDemand": "Before funding, after each hazard season or event, at maintenance checks, displacement reviews and contract renewal.", "why2031Not2026": "Current evidence establishes climate conditions, finance needs and protection gaps, not the W04 2029-31 maintained avoided-loss cycle.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "C01", "C04", "C10", "E05", "PC-S01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Climate risk is global, while each project's result must be checked in its own place", "Adaptation-finance evidence places much of the unmet need in developing countries", "The insurance dashboard describes European markets only", "Scenario possibility: W04 would tie funding to lower harm, not just completed construction" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Flood, heat, fire and drought require different measures", "Renting, land rights and public-service coverage change who benefits", "Maintenance money and local crews vary long after a project opens", "A project can move risk from one neighbourhood or group to another" ], "unknowns": [ "Needs estimates vary", "Event attribution and hazard normalisation are difficult", "Projects can shift risk across places or groups" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Public climate, planning, utility and emergency bodies with affected-community participation", "remedyIfItFails": "Redesign, maintenance, compensation, anti-displacement action, service correction or project stop", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Finance, an installed asset or insurance coverage does not by itself establish avoided loss, fairness or continuing protection." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise no future loss", "Does not claim every event is attributable to one cause", "Does not equate spending with adaptation" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Maladaptation shifts risk", "whoIsHurt": "Residents downstream or nearby when a project moves heat, flood or water risk onto them", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Map the shifted risk, redesign or stop the project and compensate verified loss" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Green displacement removes beneficiaries", "whoIsHurt": "Renters and low-income residents displaced after their area becomes safer or more valuable", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Add rent and tenure protection before funding, monitor moves and provide a right to return" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Protection fails without grid or staff", "whoIsHurt": "People who depend on cooling, clinics, drainage or alerts that lack power or staff", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Fund the missing grid, workers and maintenance; provide an interim service until the full system works" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Average gains hide renter and low-income harm", "whoIsHurt": "Renters and low-income households hidden by an improved citywide average", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish results by tenure, income and neighbourhood, then redirect funding to groups still facing harm" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Hazard, exposure, service and maintenance measurement", "whyNeeded": "Hazard, exposure, service and maintenance data compare similar risks before and after a project instead of crediting it for easier weather.", "ifMissing": "Without a fair comparison, a quiet year can make a weak project look successful while hidden risks keep growing.", "evidenceIds": [ "C01", "C10" ] }, { "dependency": "Planning, tenant, environmental, emergency, procurement and compensation powers", "whyNeeded": "Planning, tenant, emergency and compensation powers let authorities prevent displacement, correct shifted risk and stop a harmful design.", "ifMissing": "Without those powers, officials can publish unequal outcomes but cannot protect residents or require repair.", "evidenceIds": [ "C04" ] }, { "dependency": "Grids, buildings, cooling, water, drainage, transport, clinics and maintenance crews", "whyNeeded": "Cooling, drainage, power, transport, clinics and maintenance crews are the services that turn a funded design into lower harm.", "ifMissing": "If these systems or staff fail together during a hazard, the project cannot protect the people it was built for.", "evidenceIds": [ "E05", "PC-S01", "C04" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-024", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-institutional-b-018" ], "actorOrPerson": "Health and care system commissioner", "triggerOrContext": "Ageing, service-coverage and workforce pressures sustain demand while procurement can either support staff or replace them with synthetic attention.", "plainJob": "Make sure there are enough real people to assess, care and follow up, and use digital help only when it gets someone safely to them.", "observableCompletion": "Staffing, retention, response, continuity, treatment or care outcome, handoff and appeal improve together; digital routes disclose limits and never remove a named human duty-holder.", "repeatedDemand": "At each commissioning cycle, workforce review, care episode, handoff failure, model update and service renewal.", "why2031Not2026": "Current evidence shows coverage and workforce constraints plus short relational studies; W04 assumes funded staffed pathways and lifecycle commissioning become normal by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "HBD-16", "SC-G05", "SC-G06", "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Health and care workforce shortages appear across regions", "Online studies of synthetic relationships cannot represent all patients or services", "Scenario possibility: W04 uses digital help only as a bridge into staffed care" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Rural, remote and urban systems face different travel and staffing limits", "Clinical scope, consent and complaint rules differ by country", "Culture, language, disability and trust change whether a handoff works" ], "unknowns": [ "Workforce totals do not show quality or access", "Planning may not retain staff", "Digital assistance effects vary by person and service capacity" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Licensed clinicians, statutory care bodies and named service commissioners", "remedyIfItFails": "Human reassessment, urgent escalation, continuity, complaint, staffing correction and contract enforcement", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A synthetic interaction, navigation result or model output is not treatment, consent, clinical judgement or embodied care." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise a cure", "Does not promise enough workers in every place", "Does not equate contact with quality care" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Procurement removes staff", "whoIsHurt": "Patients and care workers when a digital purchase is funded by removing needed staff", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Restore staffing and human appointments, revise the contract and track access after the correction" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Surveillance enters intimate care", "whoIsHurt": "Patients whose intimate information is collected beyond what care requires", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Stop unnecessary collection, delete or restrict the data and provide an independent privacy complaint" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Remote or underserved access stays weak", "whoIsHurt": "People in remote or underserved places who still cannot reach care", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Fund travel, outreach, remote clinicians and continuity instead of treating a digital contact as completed care" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Handoff fails despite a polished interaction", "whoIsHurt": "A person whose polished digital conversation never reaches treatment or support", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Confirm receipt by a named service, keep urgent contact open and review every failed handoff" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Disclosed routing, lifecycle monitoring and accessible records", "whyNeeded": "Disclosed routing and accessible records show what the digital tool did, which human service received the case and what happened next.", "ifMissing": "Without a visible handoff trail, a polished conversation can be reported as care even when no treatment or support followed.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-16", "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02" ] }, { "dependency": "Clinical, care, consent, safeguarding, employment and service-appeal duties", "whyNeeded": "Clinical, care, consent and appeal duties keep licensed people responsible and give patients a route to challenge unsafe substitution.", "ifMissing": "Without them, procurement can remove staff or collect intimate data without a clear owner for the harm.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "HBD-16" ] }, { "dependency": "Staff, facilities, transport, medicines, devices, housing support and emergency capacity", "whyNeeded": "People, facilities, transport, medicines, devices and emergency capacity are what make advice become real care.", "ifMissing": "Without this capacity, the system can identify the right next step but cannot deliver it.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "SC-G06" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-institutional-b-018", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Health and care system commissioner", "triggerOrContext": "Ageing, service-coverage and workforce pressures sustain demand while procurement can either support staff or replace them with synthetic attention.", "plainJob": "Make sure there are enough real people to assess, care and follow up, and use digital help only when it gets someone safely to them.", "observableCompletion": "Staffing, retention, response, continuity, treatment or care outcome, handoff and appeal improve together; digital routes disclose limits and never remove a named human duty-holder.", "repeatedDemand": "At each commissioning cycle, workforce review, care episode, handoff failure, model update and service renewal.", "why2031Not2026": "Current evidence shows coverage and workforce constraints plus short relational studies; W04 assumes funded staffed pathways and lifecycle commissioning become normal by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "HBD-16", "SC-G05", "SC-G06", "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Health and care workforce shortages appear across regions", "Online studies of synthetic relationships cannot represent all patients or services", "Scenario possibility: W04 uses digital help only as a bridge into staffed care" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Rural, remote and urban systems face different travel and staffing limits", "Clinical scope, consent and complaint rules differ by country", "Culture, language, disability and trust change whether a handoff works" ], "unknowns": [ "Workforce totals do not show quality or access", "Planning may not retain staff", "Digital assistance effects vary by person and service capacity" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Licensed clinicians, statutory care bodies and named service commissioners", "remedyIfItFails": "Human reassessment, urgent escalation, continuity, complaint, staffing correction and contract enforcement", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A synthetic interaction, navigation result or model output is not treatment, consent, clinical judgement or embodied care." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise a cure", "Does not promise enough workers in every place", "Does not equate contact with quality care" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Procurement removes staff", "whoIsHurt": "Patients and care workers when a digital purchase is funded by removing needed staff", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Restore staffing and human appointments, revise the contract and track access after the correction" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Surveillance enters intimate care", "whoIsHurt": "Patients whose intimate information is collected beyond what care requires", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Stop unnecessary collection, delete or restrict the data and provide an independent privacy complaint" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Remote or underserved access stays weak", "whoIsHurt": "People in remote or underserved places who still cannot reach care", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Fund travel, outreach, remote clinicians and continuity instead of treating a digital contact as completed care" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Handoff fails despite a polished interaction", "whoIsHurt": "A person whose polished digital conversation never reaches treatment or support", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Confirm receipt by a named service, keep urgent contact open and review every failed handoff" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Disclosed routing, lifecycle monitoring and accessible records", "whyNeeded": "Disclosed routing and accessible records show what the digital tool did, which human service received the case and what happened next.", "ifMissing": "Without a visible handoff trail, a polished conversation can be reported as care even when no treatment or support followed.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-16", "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02" ] }, { "dependency": "Clinical, care, consent, safeguarding, employment and service-appeal duties", "whyNeeded": "Clinical, care, consent and appeal duties keep licensed people responsible and give patients a route to challenge unsafe substitution.", "ifMissing": "Without them, procurement can remove staff or collect intimate data without a clear owner for the harm.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "HBD-16" ] }, { "dependency": "Staff, facilities, transport, medicines, devices, housing support and emergency capacity", "whyNeeded": "People, facilities, transport, medicines, devices and emergency capacity are what make advice become real care.", "ifMissing": "Without this capacity, the system can identify the right next step but cannot deliver it.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "SC-G06" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-025", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-institutional-b-019" ], "actorOrPerson": "Education, skills and apprenticeship authority", "triggerOrContext": "Climate, care, grid, building and maintenance demand grows while some cognitive tasks contract and learning tools spread.", "plainJob": "Give learners a teacher, real practice, feedback, and a fair next step into paid useful work.", "observableCompletion": "Learners demonstrate retained skill in independent assessment, complete supervised practice, progress into paid placements or roles, and can appeal exclusion; staffing and outcomes are split by place and protected group.", "repeatedDemand": "Every intake, lesson cycle, assessment, placement, credential transfer, apprenticeship review and employer transition.", "why2031Not2026": "Current evidence supports governed learning and one short facilitated trial, not scaled durable outcomes; W04 creates repeated labour-using renewal demand by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s05", "EWF-04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "OECD evidence describes many formal education systems", "A short Nigeria intervention adds one non-OECD result but does not prove scale", "Global labour studies describe task exposure, not actual job openings", "Scenario possibility: W04 creates recurring demand for skilled maintenance, care and infrastructure work" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Trade standards and apprenticeship wages differ by country", "Rural areas may have fewer teachers, workshops and placements", "Language, disability access, devices and transport change who can finish", "Employers may not recognise the same training across regions" ], "unknowns": [ "Short gains may not persist or scale", "Exposure is not actual job demand", "Rural teacher and placement retention is unresolved" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Education, accreditation, apprenticeship and labour bodies with teacher and worker voice", "remedyIfItFails": "Reassessment, supervised catch-up, accessible placement, portable credit and independent appeal", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Generated output, attendance, an installed learning system or a short test gain does not prove durable learning, competence or employment." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise a job", "Does not promise one teaching model scales globally", "Does not treat all physical work as good work" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Synthetic-only learning removes human feedback", "whoIsHurt": "Learners who receive generated answers but little feedback or real practice", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Restore teacher time, supervised practice and a practical reassessment at no extra cost" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Placements use learners as cheap labour", "whoIsHurt": "Learners used as unpaid substitutes for qualified staff", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Require paid, supervised placements with learning goals and remove unsafe or exploitative tasks" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Certification excludes small or rural providers", "whoIsHurt": "Learners and small providers in rural areas priced out by certification", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Offer regional assessment, travel support and fair fees without lowering the skill or safety standard" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Surveillance replaces trust", "whoIsHurt": "Learners and teachers harmed when monitoring replaces a trusting learning relationship", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Limit data to what assessment needs, allow challenge and use direct observation instead of constant tracking" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Assessment separated from generated work and portable learning records", "whyNeeded": "Practical assessment separate from generated work shows the learner can perform the task, while portable records preserve that proof.", "ifMissing": "Without this separation, generated answers can earn credit and a genuine skill may disappear when the learner moves.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s05" ] }, { "dependency": "Education, accreditation, apprenticeship, labour, disability and privacy rules", "whyNeeded": "Education, apprenticeship, wage, safety, equality and privacy rules protect learners and make training recognised beyond one provider.", "ifMissing": "Without them, placements can become unsafe cheap labour and valid learning may not be accepted elsewhere.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ] }, { "dependency": "Teachers, workshops, safe equipment, placements, transport, devices and connectivity", "whyNeeded": "Teachers, workshops, safe equipment, placements, transport and connectivity supply the repeated practice needed for skilled work.", "ifMissing": "If these are missing, the pathway teaches theory but cannot prepare or place a learner safely.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s05" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-institutional-b-019", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Education, skills and apprenticeship authority", "triggerOrContext": "Climate, care, grid, building and maintenance demand grows while some cognitive tasks contract and learning tools spread.", "plainJob": "Give learners a teacher, real practice, feedback, and a fair next step into paid useful work.", "observableCompletion": "Learners demonstrate retained skill in independent assessment, complete supervised practice, progress into paid placements or roles, and can appeal exclusion; staffing and outcomes are split by place and protected group.", "repeatedDemand": "Every intake, lesson cycle, assessment, placement, credential transfer, apprenticeship review and employer transition.", "why2031Not2026": "Current evidence supports governed learning and one short facilitated trial, not scaled durable outcomes; W04 creates repeated labour-using renewal demand by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s05", "EWF-04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "OECD evidence describes many formal education systems", "A short Nigeria intervention adds one non-OECD result but does not prove scale", "Global labour studies describe task exposure, not actual job openings", "Scenario possibility: W04 creates recurring demand for skilled maintenance, care and infrastructure work" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Trade standards and apprenticeship wages differ by country", "Rural areas may have fewer teachers, workshops and placements", "Language, disability access, devices and transport change who can finish", "Employers may not recognise the same training across regions" ], "unknowns": [ "Short gains may not persist or scale", "Exposure is not actual job demand", "Rural teacher and placement retention is unresolved" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Education, accreditation, apprenticeship and labour bodies with teacher and worker voice", "remedyIfItFails": "Reassessment, supervised catch-up, accessible placement, portable credit and independent appeal", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Generated output, attendance, an installed learning system or a short test gain does not prove durable learning, competence or employment." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise a job", "Does not promise one teaching model scales globally", "Does not treat all physical work as good work" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Synthetic-only learning removes human feedback", "whoIsHurt": "Learners who receive generated answers but little feedback or real practice", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Restore teacher time, supervised practice and a practical reassessment at no extra cost" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Placements use learners as cheap labour", "whoIsHurt": "Learners used as unpaid substitutes for qualified staff", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Require paid, supervised placements with learning goals and remove unsafe or exploitative tasks" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Certification excludes small or rural providers", "whoIsHurt": "Learners and small providers in rural areas priced out by certification", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Offer regional assessment, travel support and fair fees without lowering the skill or safety standard" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Surveillance replaces trust", "whoIsHurt": "Learners and teachers harmed when monitoring replaces a trusting learning relationship", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Limit data to what assessment needs, allow challenge and use direct observation instead of constant tracking" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Assessment separated from generated work and portable learning records", "whyNeeded": "Practical assessment separate from generated work shows the learner can perform the task, while portable records preserve that proof.", "ifMissing": "Without this separation, generated answers can earn credit and a genuine skill may disappear when the learner moves.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s05" ] }, { "dependency": "Education, accreditation, apprenticeship, labour, disability and privacy rules", "whyNeeded": "Education, apprenticeship, wage, safety, equality and privacy rules protect learners and make training recognised beyond one provider.", "ifMissing": "Without them, placements can become unsafe cheap labour and valid learning may not be accepted elsewhere.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ] }, { "dependency": "Teachers, workshops, safe equipment, placements, transport, devices and connectivity", "whyNeeded": "Teachers, workshops, safe equipment, placements, transport and connectivity supply the repeated practice needed for skilled work.", "ifMissing": "If these are missing, the pathway teaches theory but cannot prepare or place a learner safely.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s05" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-026", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-institutional-b-020" ], "actorOrPerson": "Regional fund, treasury, municipality and cooperative capital steward", "triggerOrContext": "Climate loss, grid and equipment delays, care and education pressure, and fiscal limits threaten to break coordinated renewal before benefits arrive.", "plainJob": "Keep money flowing for the people, repairs and backup that make a public project work for years, and stop paying when it does not.", "observableCompletion": "Funding is staged against energisation, staffing, safe service, maintained outcomes and equitable reach; lifecycle budgets, debt, ratepayer burden, contingency and stop decisions are public.", "repeatedDemand": "At budget cycles, milestones, hazard shocks, cost overruns, refinancing, outcome reviews and renewal or termination.", "why2031Not2026": "Current debt, queue and adaptation evidence shows pressure and intent; W04 depends on a sustained 2027-31 financing and maintenance cycle that is not yet observed.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-02", "C04", "E05", "PC-S01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Debt and infrastructure pressures affect many countries", "Adaptation finance and borrowing access differ sharply between richer and poorer economies", "Scenario possibility: W04 needs patient funding that lasts through construction, staffing and maintenance" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Interest rates, exchange rates and public borrowing room can change quickly", "Tax, utility and cooperative finance powers differ locally", "A place with capital may still lack equipment, workers or project-management capacity" ], "unknowns": [ "No joined global delivery-capacity series exists", "Climate escalation may outrun funding", "Debt and currency conditions can reverse quickly" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Legislatures, treasuries, regulated utilities, municipalities and cooperative owners", "remedyIfItFails": "Rephase, refinance, reallocate, correct burden, require maintenance, compensate or stop", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Financial commitment is not physical delivery, avoided harm, service quality or community consent." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise all projects remain affordable", "Does not promise debt is sustainable", "Does not equate capital spend with service" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Maintenance is cut first", "whoIsHurt": "Residents and workers who lose safe service when maintenance money is removed", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Ring-fence maintenance, restore critical repairs and delay expansion until the existing service is safe" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Ratepayers or tenants absorb overruns", "whoIsHurt": "Tenants and ordinary ratepayers charged for overruns they did not cause", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Audit the overrun, cap or refund unfair charges and move the cost to the responsible project or investor" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Flagships drain ordinary services", "whoIsHurt": "People using ordinary clinics, schools, transport or utilities drained by a flagship project", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish the trade-off, restore core-service budgets and rephase the flagship if essential service falls below its public duty" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Sunk-cost pressure keeps harmful projects alive", "whoIsHurt": "Affected residents kept in a harmful project because too much money has already been spent", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Use independent stop tests, disclose remaining losses and close or redesign the project when future harm exceeds benefit" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Milestone, outcome, cost and risk records", "whyNeeded": "Milestone, cost, risk and outcome records show whether each funding release produced working service and what still needs repair.", "ifMissing": "Without them, money can keep flowing because it was planned, even when benefits, staffing or safety never arrive.", "evidenceIds": [ "E05", "PC-S01" ] }, { "dependency": "Budget, procurement, utility, cooperative, debt and audit rules", "whyNeeded": "Budget, procurement, utility, debt and audit rules define who may commit money, who carries overruns and when a project can be changed or stopped.", "ifMissing": "Without clear authority, responsibility is blurred and tenants or ratepayers can inherit costs they did not approve.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-02", "C04" ] }, { "dependency": "Equipment, grids, buildings, staff, spares and distributed fallback", "whyNeeded": "Equipment, grids, buildings, staff, spares and fallback sites are the delivery capacity behind the financial plan.", "ifMissing": "Without physical and human capacity, extra funding cannot meet milestones and pressure grows to hide delay or cut maintenance.", "evidenceIds": [ "E05", "PC-S01", "C04" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-institutional-b-020", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Regional fund, treasury, municipality and cooperative capital steward", "triggerOrContext": "Climate loss, grid and equipment delays, care and education pressure, and fiscal limits threaten to break coordinated renewal before benefits arrive.", "plainJob": "Keep money flowing for the people, repairs and backup that make a public project work for years, and stop paying when it does not.", "observableCompletion": "Funding is staged against energisation, staffing, safe service, maintained outcomes and equitable reach; lifecycle budgets, debt, ratepayer burden, contingency and stop decisions are public.", "repeatedDemand": "At budget cycles, milestones, hazard shocks, cost overruns, refinancing, outcome reviews and renewal or termination.", "why2031Not2026": "Current debt, queue and adaptation evidence shows pressure and intent; W04 depends on a sustained 2027-31 financing and maintenance cycle that is not yet observed.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-02", "C04", "E05", "PC-S01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Debt and infrastructure pressures affect many countries", "Adaptation finance and borrowing access differ sharply between richer and poorer economies", "Scenario possibility: W04 needs patient funding that lasts through construction, staffing and maintenance" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Interest rates, exchange rates and public borrowing room can change quickly", "Tax, utility and cooperative finance powers differ locally", "A place with capital may still lack equipment, workers or project-management capacity" ], "unknowns": [ "No joined global delivery-capacity series exists", "Climate escalation may outrun funding", "Debt and currency conditions can reverse quickly" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Legislatures, treasuries, regulated utilities, municipalities and cooperative owners", "remedyIfItFails": "Rephase, refinance, reallocate, correct burden, require maintenance, compensate or stop", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Financial commitment is not physical delivery, avoided harm, service quality or community consent." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise all projects remain affordable", "Does not promise debt is sustainable", "Does not equate capital spend with service" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Maintenance is cut first", "whoIsHurt": "Residents and workers who lose safe service when maintenance money is removed", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Ring-fence maintenance, restore critical repairs and delay expansion until the existing service is safe" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Ratepayers or tenants absorb overruns", "whoIsHurt": "Tenants and ordinary ratepayers charged for overruns they did not cause", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Audit the overrun, cap or refund unfair charges and move the cost to the responsible project or investor" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Flagships drain ordinary services", "whoIsHurt": "People using ordinary clinics, schools, transport or utilities drained by a flagship project", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish the trade-off, restore core-service budgets and rephase the flagship if essential service falls below its public duty" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Sunk-cost pressure keeps harmful projects alive", "whoIsHurt": "Affected residents kept in a harmful project because too much money has already been spent", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Use independent stop tests, disclose remaining losses and close or redesign the project when future harm exceeds benefit" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Milestone, outcome, cost and risk records", "whyNeeded": "Milestone, cost, risk and outcome records show whether each funding release produced working service and what still needs repair.", "ifMissing": "Without them, money can keep flowing because it was planned, even when benefits, staffing or safety never arrive.", "evidenceIds": [ "E05", "PC-S01" ] }, { "dependency": "Budget, procurement, utility, cooperative, debt and audit rules", "whyNeeded": "Budget, procurement, utility, debt and audit rules define who may commit money, who carries overruns and when a project can be changed or stopped.", "ifMissing": "Without clear authority, responsibility is blurred and tenants or ratepayers can inherit costs they did not approve.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-02", "C04" ] }, { "dependency": "Equipment, grids, buildings, staff, spares and distributed fallback", "whyNeeded": "Equipment, grids, buildings, staff, spares and fallback sites are the delivery capacity behind the financial plan.", "ifMissing": "Without physical and human capacity, extra funding cannot meet milestones and pressure grows to hide delay or cut maintenance.", "evidenceIds": [ "E05", "PC-S01", "C04" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-027", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-institutional-w05-03" ], "actorOrPerson": "Person, shop, carer or benefit recipient in a place where services are down", "triggerOrContext": "Power, phone networks, account checks or the main payment system is down. People still need food, medicine, travel, wages or public support.", "plainJob": "When digital proof or messages fail, let me receive essentials. Record what I owe, or what others owe me, so it can be fixed later.", "observableCompletion": "In an exercise or real outage, banks and public bodies use a limited record of essentials received and money owed. After service returns, they fix duplicate records and wrong refusals. Shops and people do not carry unlimited loss or privacy risk.", "repeatedDemand": "This need returns with each key purchase, wage, benefit payment and record check during an outage.", "why2031Not2026": "By 2031, the W05 scenario links failed power, networks, ID checks and exchange. The assigned W05 sources show ID and service outage risks. They do not directly show offline payment. The exchange method here comes from the scenario and still needs tests.", "worldIds": [ "w05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s43", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Places where key exchange needs live power, networks and ID checks", "Remote, displaced or conflict-hit places with weak access to cash or banks" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Cash use, mobile money, shop power and public payment systems differ by place", "Currency risk and benefit law change what a safe backup can do" ], "unknowns": [ "The assigned sources do not directly test offline payment or exchange over several days", "We do not yet know how well later record repair works or who carries shop losses" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Central banks, payment regulators, benefit bodies and legal issuers can set rules for crisis records and later repair.", "remedyIfItFails": "People and shops need errors fixed, value returned and a staffed route to review an urgent wrong refusal.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A crisis record cannot create unlimited private debt, remove buyer protection or decide a person's legal ID." } ], "nonPromises": [ "A tested backup does not promise that exchange will never stop.", "A record of money owed does not prove ID, a right to support or delivery of goods." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "A duplicate record or false fraud warning blocks later access.", "whoIsHurt": "People, shops and benefit users with little spare money are hurt first.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Use only limited local powers. Repair records later and give people a staffed review." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Crisis records track people too closely or are never fixed.", "whoIsHurt": "Displaced people and those with few documents face more risk and refusal.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Rules must limit why the record is used and how long it is kept. An outside reviewer must check it." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "A limited local record and later repair", "whyNeeded": "This is a response designed for the W05 scenario. It could record essentials received and money owed when live checks fail.", "ifMissing": "People may lose essentials, or shops may carry losses they cannot control.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s43", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] }, { "dependency": "Separate ID checks and human fix", "whyNeeded": "The W05 sources show that one failed ID route can affect linked services. The scenario therefore keeps urgent exchange separate from that failure.", "ifMissing": "One ID error can block food, medicine, wages and benefits.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12" ] }, { "dependency": "Staff, power and a safe local record of value", "whyNeeded": "People still need to give out goods and fix errors when central systems are down.", "ifMissing": "A backup may work on paper but fail in the affected place.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-institutional-w05-03", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Person, shop, carer or benefit recipient in a place where services are down", "triggerOrContext": "Power, phone networks, account checks or the main payment system is down. People still need food, medicine, travel, wages or public support.", "plainJob": "When digital proof or messages fail, let me receive essentials. Record what I owe, or what others owe me, so it can be fixed later.", "observableCompletion": "In an exercise or real outage, banks and public bodies use a limited record of essentials received and money owed. After service returns, they fix duplicate records and wrong refusals. Shops and people do not carry unlimited loss or privacy risk.", "repeatedDemand": "This need returns with each key purchase, wage, benefit payment and record check during an outage.", "why2031Not2026": "By 2031, the W05 scenario links failed power, networks, ID checks and exchange. The assigned W05 sources show ID and service outage risks. They do not directly show offline payment. The exchange method here comes from the scenario and still needs tests.", "worldIds": [ "W05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s43", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Places where key exchange needs live power, networks and ID checks", "Remote, displaced or conflict-hit places with weak access to cash or banks" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Cash use, mobile money, shop power and public payment systems differ by place", "Currency risk and benefit law change what a safe backup can do" ], "unknowns": [ "The assigned sources do not directly test offline payment or exchange over several days", "We do not yet know how well later record repair works or who carries shop losses" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Central banks, payment regulators, benefit bodies and legal issuers can set rules for crisis records and later repair.", "remedyIfItFails": "People and shops need errors fixed, value returned and a staffed route to review an urgent wrong refusal.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A crisis record cannot create unlimited private debt, remove buyer protection or decide a person's legal ID." }, "nonPromises": [ "A tested backup does not promise that exchange will never stop.", "A record of money owed does not prove ID, a right to support or delivery of goods." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "A duplicate record or false fraud warning blocks later access.", "whoIsHurt": "People, shops and benefit users with little spare money are hurt first.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Use only limited local powers. Repair records later and give people a staffed review." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Crisis records track people too closely or are never fixed.", "whoIsHurt": "Displaced people and those with few documents face more risk and refusal.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Rules must limit why the record is used and how long it is kept. An outside reviewer must check it." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "A limited local record and later repair", "whyNeeded": "This is a response designed for the W05 scenario. It could record essentials received and money owed when live checks fail.", "ifMissing": "People may lose essentials, or shops may carry losses they cannot control.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s43", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] }, { "dependency": "Separate ID checks and human fix", "whyNeeded": "The W05 sources show that one failed ID route can affect linked services. The scenario therefore keeps urgent exchange separate from that failure.", "ifMissing": "One ID error can block food, medicine, wages and benefits.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12" ] }, { "dependency": "Staff, power and a safe local record of value", "whyNeeded": "People still need to give out goods and fix errors when central systems are down.", "ifMissing": "A backup may work on paper but fail in the affected place.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-028", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-institutional-w05-04" ], "actorOrPerson": "Person moving between places and the public or professional body receiving them", "triggerOrContext": "A border, corridor or provider boundary leaves prior health, learning, benefit, family or qualification records unavailable, untrusted or legally incompatible.", "plainJob": "When I move or a system boundary changes, let the next person in charge use the needed record, check its source and correct it without trapping my rights in one provider or country.", "observableCompletion": "The receiving body keeps an urgent service open from a small record and a reasoned short-term choice. The person can see what moved, fix errors and limit other uses. If the record is refused, a person reviews it.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns at each move, referral, school transition, benefit renewal, licence check, provider switch and crisis transfer.", "why2031Not2026": "Current standards and legal plans show intent. By 2031, W05 makes record acceptance narrower and portable records more important. Errors must still be easy to fix.", "worldIds": [ "w05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "HBD-13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s09" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Cross-border health, learning, benefit and qualification transfers", "Internal federal, provincial and security-corridor seams" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Rules for accepting records and trained-worker duties differ by place", "Bodies with few staff may lack staff and testing facilities for shared standards" ], "unknowns": [ "We do not know whether both sides will accept records during repeated strain", "A compatible format does not establish a usable receiving service" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The public bodies and trained workers who receive the record can make short-term and final choices under local law.", "remedyIfItFails": "The person needs fix, rules that limit use, a reasoned temporary route and human appeal.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Technical translation cannot grant citizenship, qualification or treatment or override local and Indigenous power." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Moving data does not mean the next place must accept it.", "A format match does not prove that a record is complete, current or fair." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "A false or stale record travels farther than the person can contest it.", "whoIsHurt": "Migrants, displaced families and people needing urgent care or learning access are hurt.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Source and fix history and human temporary service must keep the error reversible." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Shared standards expose unnecessary health, family or migration information.", "whoIsHurt": "People crossing places face privacy, safety and status harm.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Rules that limit use and user-visible selective transfer must narrow what travels." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Source, safety and fix history", "whyNeeded": "The receiving body must know where the record came from and which version is disputed.", "ifMissing": "The next body either trusts everything or refuses everything.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ] }, { "dependency": "Laws for accepting records and short-term human power", "whyNeeded": "A shared record only helps when a lawful person can act on it during uncertainty.", "ifMissing": "Technical record sharing produces no service outcome.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "HBD-13" ] }, { "dependency": "Staffed receiving bodies and safe record custody", "whyNeeded": "People, safe storage and messages that everyone can use turn a moved record into a finished service.", "ifMissing": "The record arrives but nobody can review or use it.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s09", "HBD-13" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-institutional-w05-04", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Person moving between places and the public or professional body receiving them", "triggerOrContext": "A border, corridor or provider boundary leaves prior health, learning, benefit, family or qualification records unavailable, untrusted or legally incompatible.", "plainJob": "When I move or a system boundary changes, let the next person in charge use the needed record, check its source and correct it without trapping my rights in one provider or country.", "observableCompletion": "The receiving body keeps an urgent service open from a small record and a reasoned short-term choice. The person can see what moved, fix errors and limit other uses. If the record is refused, a person reviews it.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns at each move, referral, school transition, benefit renewal, licence check, provider switch and crisis transfer.", "why2031Not2026": "Current standards and legal plans show intent. By 2031, W05 makes record acceptance narrower and portable records more important. Errors must still be easy to fix.", "worldIds": [ "W05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "HBD-13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s09" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Cross-border health, learning, benefit and qualification transfers", "Internal federal, provincial and security-corridor seams" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Rules for accepting records and trained-worker duties differ by place", "Bodies with few staff may lack staff and testing facilities for shared standards" ], "unknowns": [ "We do not know whether both sides will accept records during repeated strain", "A compatible format does not establish a usable receiving service" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The public bodies and trained workers who receive the record can make short-term and final choices under local law.", "remedyIfItFails": "The person needs fix, rules that limit use, a reasoned temporary route and human appeal.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Technical translation cannot grant citizenship, qualification or treatment or override local and Indigenous power." }, "nonPromises": [ "Moving data does not mean the next place must accept it.", "A format match does not prove that a record is complete, current or fair." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "A false or stale record travels farther than the person can contest it.", "whoIsHurt": "Migrants, displaced families and people needing urgent care or learning access are hurt.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Source and fix history and human temporary service must keep the error reversible." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Shared standards expose unnecessary health, family or migration information.", "whoIsHurt": "People crossing places face privacy, safety and status harm.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Rules that limit use and user-visible selective transfer must narrow what travels." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Source, safety and fix history", "whyNeeded": "The receiving body must know where the record came from and which version is disputed.", "ifMissing": "The next body either trusts everything or refuses everything.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ] }, { "dependency": "Laws for accepting records and short-term human power", "whyNeeded": "A shared record only helps when a lawful person can act on it during uncertainty.", "ifMissing": "Technical record sharing produces no service outcome.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "HBD-13" ] }, { "dependency": "Staffed receiving bodies and safe record custody", "whyNeeded": "People, safe storage and messages that everyone can use turn a moved record into a finished service.", "ifMissing": "The record arrives but nobody can review or use it.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s09", "HBD-13" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-029", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-institutional-w05-05" ], "actorOrPerson": "Local administrator, service desk, clinic, school or aid team with partial systems", "triggerOrContext": "Cloud, network, ID or specialist systems are unavailable, but registrations, referrals, rationing, attendance, prescriptions or aid decisions cannot stop.", "plainJob": "When the main system is down, let us finish the urgent decisions people cannot wait for, record who decided what and merge the work back safely after recovery.", "observableCompletion": "An approved team finishes its set of key cases during a failure. Each short-term action has a reason, an owner and a later review. Tests track open work, duplicate records, unsafe delay and safe return to the main record.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns during every planned isolation test, incident, network split and recovery backlog, so staff must practise before failure.", "why2031Not2026": "W05 makes engineered islands and intermittent service outside them normal by 2031; present coupled systems and announced preparedness do not prove manual completion.", "worldIds": [ "w05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s43", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s45", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Conflict, island, rural, remote and border services", "Clinics, schools and local administrations dependent on central cloud and ID" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Local law defines which decisions can proceed without live specialist data", "Staff, paper practice and local power differ by public body" ], "unknowns": [ "The safe duration of temporary operation varies by service", "Later merge quality and unresolved backlog are not consistently measured" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The public body in charge or an authorised aid or local body can make limited temporary decisions.", "remedyIfItFails": "Staff need later review and protection for following the backup rule. People need a fix and appeal after service returns.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A reduced crisis service cannot become a permanent service with fewer rights or override trained-worker and legal limits." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Manual operation does not promise full service quality.", "A paper record is not automatically secure or accurate." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Improvised local rules discriminate or conflict across sites.", "whoIsHurt": "People moving between sites and people with unusual documents or needs are hurt.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Pre-agreed power, reasoned decisions and later human review must correct divergence." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Paper and local files are lost, copied or never reconciled.", "whoIsHurt": "People whose care, learning or benefit history depends on the temporary record are hurt.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Secure custody, duplicate control and tested merge must protect the history." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Local logs and conflict-aware later merge", "whyNeeded": "Temporary decisions must survive the outage and return safely to the main record.", "ifMissing": "People receive duplicate, contradictory or missing decisions after service return.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s43", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] }, { "dependency": "Delegated power and later review", "whyNeeded": "Staff need lawful scope to act without a live central system.", "ifMissing": "Urgent cases stop or workers improvise without protection.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ] }, { "dependency": "Trained staff, local power and secure physical records", "whyNeeded": "Work in backup mode still needs people, safe sites and records that last.", "ifMissing": "The written procedure cannot operate where the failure occurs.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s45", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-institutional-w05-05", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Local administrator, service desk, clinic, school or aid team with partial systems", "triggerOrContext": "Cloud, network, ID or specialist systems are unavailable, but registrations, referrals, rationing, attendance, prescriptions or aid decisions cannot stop.", "plainJob": "When the main system is down, let us finish the urgent decisions people cannot wait for, record who decided what and merge the work back safely after recovery.", "observableCompletion": "An approved team finishes its set of key cases during a failure. Each short-term action has a reason, an owner and a later review. Tests track open work, duplicate records, unsafe delay and safe return to the main record.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns during every planned isolation test, incident, network split and recovery backlog, so staff must practise before failure.", "why2031Not2026": "W05 makes engineered islands and intermittent service outside them normal by 2031; present coupled systems and announced preparedness do not prove manual completion.", "worldIds": [ "W05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s43", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s45", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Conflict, island, rural, remote and border services", "Clinics, schools and local administrations dependent on central cloud and ID" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Local law defines which decisions can proceed without live specialist data", "Staff, paper practice and local power differ by public body" ], "unknowns": [ "The safe duration of temporary operation varies by service", "Later merge quality and unresolved backlog are not consistently measured" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The public body in charge or an authorised aid or local body can make limited temporary decisions.", "remedyIfItFails": "Staff need later review and protection for following the backup rule. People need a fix and appeal after service returns.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A reduced crisis service cannot become a permanent service with fewer rights or override trained-worker and legal limits." }, "nonPromises": [ "Manual operation does not promise full service quality.", "A paper record is not automatically secure or accurate." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Improvised local rules discriminate or conflict across sites.", "whoIsHurt": "People moving between sites and people with unusual documents or needs are hurt.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Pre-agreed power, reasoned decisions and later human review must correct divergence." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Paper and local files are lost, copied or never reconciled.", "whoIsHurt": "People whose care, learning or benefit history depends on the temporary record are hurt.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Secure custody, duplicate control and tested merge must protect the history." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Local logs and conflict-aware later merge", "whyNeeded": "Temporary decisions must survive the outage and return safely to the main record.", "ifMissing": "People receive duplicate, contradictory or missing decisions after service return.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s43", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] }, { "dependency": "Delegated power and later review", "whyNeeded": "Staff need lawful scope to act without a live central system.", "ifMissing": "Urgent cases stop or workers improvise without protection.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ] }, { "dependency": "Trained staff, local power and secure physical records", "whyNeeded": "Work in backup mode still needs people, safe sites and records that last.", "ifMissing": "The written procedure cannot operate where the failure occurs.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s45", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-030", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-institutional-w05-06" ], "actorOrPerson": "Repair crew, utility, cable operator, maintainer and community hosting the repair", "triggerOrContext": "A grid, cable, network, chip-dependent control, pump or ID system fails while spares, technicians, safe access and cross-border supply are constrained.", "plainJob": "When key systems fail, tell repair crews what broke. Let them reach it safely, get a part that fits and explain why this job comes first.", "observableCompletion": "The operator reports when service returns, who was hit, staff harm, part delays and repeat faults. Crews can find the failed part and use a tested spare. Host groups and public bodies can challenge unsafe access or an unfair work order.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns for preventive maintenance, stock rotation, every fault and every after-action review because repair team decays when untested.", "why2031Not2026": "Current sources show reliance on cables, a few makers and chain failures. W05 assumes tighter controls and repeated faults make repairs slower by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "w05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s47", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52", "PC-S13" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Semiconductor corridors, undersea routes and weaker grids", "Island, Arctic, mountain and conflict-affected repair paths" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Safe access, local permission and component availability vary by place", "Fabrication plans and route diversity do not prove local choice" ], "unknowns": [ "Cable causes are often unknown at first report", "Comparable repair-time and workforce data remain incomplete" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Operators and public bodies can set safe service return plans within labour, environmental, land and aid law.", "remedyIfItFails": "Workers and host communities need safe refusal, public priority review and a route to correct unsafe or captured repair decisions.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Crisis access cannot erase worker refusal, Indigenous and local permission, environmental limits or aid protection." } ], "nonPromises": [ "More spare parts or routes does not promise service return during conflict or unsafe access.", "A new fabrication site or route does not prove timely affordable parts." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Workers are sent into unsafe conditions to meet service return pressure.", "whoIsHurt": "Repair crews, nearby residents and later service users bear the risk.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Safe refusal, access review and protected repair corridors must come before speed." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Stockpiles are incompatible, expired or captured by protected enclaves.", "whoIsHurt": "Remote and lower-priority communities wait longer for service return.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Open conformance, stock rotation and public choice review must restore usable supply." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "A list of system links and ways to split off a failed part", "whyNeeded": "Crews must identify the failed layer and contain it before service return.", "ifMissing": "Repair work spreads failure or waits for an unavailable specialist.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s47", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] }, { "dependency": "Compatible spares and supplier other routes", "whyNeeded": "A safe crew still needs a usable part that can reach the site.", "ifMissing": "Backup parts or routes that exist only on paper cannot restore service.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s47" ] }, { "dependency": "Safe transport, trained crews and host permission", "whyNeeded": "Physical repair requires people and lawful access to the damaged place.", "ifMissing": "Equipment remains offline even when the fault is understood.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-institutional-w05-06", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Repair crew, utility, cable operator, maintainer and community hosting the repair", "triggerOrContext": "A grid, cable, network, chip-dependent control, pump or ID system fails while spares, technicians, safe access and cross-border supply are constrained.", "plainJob": "When key systems fail, tell repair crews what broke. Let them reach it safely, get a part that fits and explain why this job comes first.", "observableCompletion": "The operator reports when service returns, who was hit, staff harm, part delays and repeat faults. Crews can find the failed part and use a tested spare. Host groups and public bodies can challenge unsafe access or an unfair work order.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns for preventive maintenance, stock rotation, every fault and every after-action review because repair team decays when untested.", "why2031Not2026": "Current sources show reliance on cables, a few makers and chain failures. W05 assumes tighter controls and repeated faults make repairs slower by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "W05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s47", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52", "PC-S13" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Semiconductor corridors, undersea routes and weaker grids", "Island, Arctic, mountain and conflict-affected repair paths" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Safe access, local permission and component availability vary by place", "Fabrication plans and route diversity do not prove local choice" ], "unknowns": [ "Cable causes are often unknown at first report", "Comparable repair-time and workforce data remain incomplete" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Operators and public bodies can set safe service return plans within labour, environmental, land and aid law.", "remedyIfItFails": "Workers and host communities need safe refusal, public priority review and a route to correct unsafe or captured repair decisions.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Crisis access cannot erase worker refusal, Indigenous and local permission, environmental limits or aid protection." }, "nonPromises": [ "More spare parts or routes does not promise service return during conflict or unsafe access.", "A new fabrication site or route does not prove timely affordable parts." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Workers are sent into unsafe conditions to meet service return pressure.", "whoIsHurt": "Repair crews, nearby residents and later service users bear the risk.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Safe refusal, access review and protected repair corridors must come before speed." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Stockpiles are incompatible, expired or captured by protected enclaves.", "whoIsHurt": "Remote and lower-priority communities wait longer for service return.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Open conformance, stock rotation and public choice review must restore usable supply." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "A list of system links and ways to split off a failed part", "whyNeeded": "Crews must identify the failed layer and contain it before service return.", "ifMissing": "Repair work spreads failure or waits for an unavailable specialist.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s47", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] }, { "dependency": "Compatible spares and supplier other routes", "whyNeeded": "A safe crew still needs a usable part that can reach the site.", "ifMissing": "Backup parts or routes that exist only on paper cannot restore service.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s47" ] }, { "dependency": "Safe transport, trained crews and host permission", "whyNeeded": "Physical repair requires people and lawful access to the damaged place.", "ifMissing": "Equipment remains offline even when the fault is understood.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-031", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-institutional-w05-07" ], "actorOrPerson": "Person denied or delayed service and the public body allocating scarce resources", "triggerOrContext": "A security, utility or service body gives priority to a corridor, public body, citizen class or strategic load and another person or place waits longer.", "plainJob": "When I am placed behind someone else for a key service, tell me the rule, keep a person in charge, let me challenge a mistake and end the crisis rule when the crisis ends.", "observableCompletion": "Each priority rule names who has the power, why it exists, who it affects and when it ends. Urgent errors reach a person before lasting harm when this is possible. Outside review tracks delay and reversed choices by group.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns at every rationing decision, rule renewal, service denial, appeal and post-incident review.", "why2031Not2026": "By 2031, W05 makes crisis priority a regular part of social order. Current standards and rights sources do not prove that fixes work under repeated strain.", "worldIds": [ "w05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Every place that rations power, ID, care, communication or transport", "Borders and security corridors where citizenship or location shapes access" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Court staff, legal aid, secrecy and aid access differ within countries", "Some places have no effective appeal during disruption" ], "unknowns": [ "Rights on paper cannot be turned into one enforcement measure", "The resources for a useful fix vary with each event" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Elected, statutory or aid duty-holders can allocate scarce resources within law and public duty.", "remedyIfItFails": "Courts, regulators, local public bodies and crisis fix routes must review error, discrimination and overdue crisis rules.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Running private systems does not grant state power. A crisis does not erase fair legal steps forever." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Appeal cannot create resources that do not exist.", "Equal written rules do not promise equal service return outcomes." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Secrecy hides discrimination or owner preference inside a priority rule.", "whoIsHurt": "Remote, displaced, low-income and document-poor people wait longest.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Public reasoning, outcomes split by group and outside review must expose the choice." }, { "harmOrFailure": "A slow appeal arrives after health, housing or family harm.", "whoIsHurt": "People facing urgent and irreversible loss are hurt.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "A staffed urgent fix path must operate before the full later appeal." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Decision records and outcome review", "whyNeeded": "A priority choice must be visible enough to challenge and improve.", "ifMissing": "A crisis choice becomes routine power that no one can review.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] }, { "dependency": "Lawful power, time limits and human appeal", "whyNeeded": "Scarcity does not remove the need for responsible public decisions.", "ifMissing": "Temporary security rules harden into permanent exclusion.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ] }, { "dependency": "Review staff and messages people can use", "whyNeeded": "People need a reachable person before a harmful denial becomes final.", "ifMissing": "A formal right exists but cannot change the lived outcome.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-institutional-w05-07", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Person denied or delayed service and the public body allocating scarce resources", "triggerOrContext": "A security, utility or service body gives priority to a corridor, public body, citizen class or strategic load and another person or place waits longer.", "plainJob": "When I am placed behind someone else for a key service, tell me the rule, keep a person in charge, let me challenge a mistake and end the crisis rule when the crisis ends.", "observableCompletion": "Each priority rule names who has the power, why it exists, who it affects and when it ends. Urgent errors reach a person before lasting harm when this is possible. Outside review tracks delay and reversed choices by group.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns at every rationing decision, rule renewal, service denial, appeal and post-incident review.", "why2031Not2026": "By 2031, W05 makes crisis priority a regular part of social order. Current standards and rights sources do not prove that fixes work under repeated strain.", "worldIds": [ "W05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Every place that rations power, ID, care, communication or transport", "Borders and security corridors where citizenship or location shapes access" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Court staff, legal aid, secrecy and aid access differ within countries", "Some places have no effective appeal during disruption" ], "unknowns": [ "Rights on paper cannot be turned into one enforcement measure", "The resources for a useful fix vary with each event" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Elected, statutory or aid duty-holders can allocate scarce resources within law and public duty.", "remedyIfItFails": "Courts, regulators, local public bodies and crisis fix routes must review error, discrimination and overdue crisis rules.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Running private systems does not grant state power. A crisis does not erase fair legal steps forever." }, "nonPromises": [ "Appeal cannot create resources that do not exist.", "Equal written rules do not promise equal service return outcomes." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Secrecy hides discrimination or owner preference inside a priority rule.", "whoIsHurt": "Remote, displaced, low-income and document-poor people wait longest.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Public reasoning, outcomes split by group and outside review must expose the choice." }, { "harmOrFailure": "A slow appeal arrives after health, housing or family harm.", "whoIsHurt": "People facing urgent and irreversible loss are hurt.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "A staffed urgent fix path must operate before the full later appeal." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Decision records and outcome review", "whyNeeded": "A priority choice must be visible enough to challenge and improve.", "ifMissing": "A crisis choice becomes routine power that no one can review.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] }, { "dependency": "Lawful power, time limits and human appeal", "whyNeeded": "Scarcity does not remove the need for responsible public decisions.", "ifMissing": "Temporary security rules harden into permanent exclusion.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ] }, { "dependency": "Review staff and messages people can use", "whyNeeded": "People need a reachable person before a harmful denial becomes final.", "ifMissing": "A formal right exists but cannot change the lived outcome.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-032", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-institutional-w05-09" ], "actorOrPerson": "Frontline service worker or carer who keeps a key service running", "triggerOrContext": "In the W05 scenario, a formal service fails or works in backup mode. Workers and carers are asked to keep it running.", "plainJob": "When people depend on my extra work during a failure, show the workload and risk. Give me clear powers, rest and relief.", "observableCompletion": "Employers and bodies in charge record hours, case loads, injuries, stress, rest and unfinished work. Staff can refuse unsafe tasks and ask for help with impossible loads. Staffing, pay, rest and training change before the next event.", "repeatedDemand": "This need returns with each shift, case, outage, move to safety and recovery period. Tiredness can carry into the next event.", "why2031Not2026": "The assigned sources directly show gaps in health and mental-health services and workforces, plus the wider setting of service failure. The W05 scenario uses that setting to derive this need for worker and carer protection. The sources do not directly measure workload, safe refusal, pay or unpaid care.", "worldIds": [ "w05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "SC-G06", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Health, care and other frontline work during a service failure", "Key local work in places with weak staff support" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Pay, job rights, caring burdens and the right to refuse differ by place", "Conflict and migration change both risk and legal protection" ], "unknowns": [ "The assigned sources do not directly measure workload, safe refusal, pay or unpaid care", "The W05 scenario derives these protections, so their real results by place remain unknown" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Employers, public bodies and aid groups can set safe staffing, pay, rest and rules for asking for help.", "remedyIfItFails": "Workers need a safe right to refuse, worker support, a way to report harm, fair payment and a named body that must respond.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Technology cannot push unlimited blame onto workers. Extra effort does not create an endless duty." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Thanks do not replace pay, rest or safe staffing.", "Automation does not remove human, physical or legal duties." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Extra hours are hidden, so a weak service looks stronger than it is.", "whoIsHurt": "Workers burn out while people still depend on a weak service.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Show the workload, rest and unfinished cases before the next event." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Workers are blamed for failures caused by too few staff or unclear powers.", "whoIsHurt": "Frontline staff, carers and the people who rely on them are hurt.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Set clear roles, protect requests for help and make the body in charge review what failed." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Workload, case transfer and safety records", "whyNeeded": "The scenario needs work pressure to be visible. The sources show service and workforce gaps but do not directly measure workload.", "ifMissing": "Tired workers remain the hidden reason a service stays open.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05" ] }, { "dependency": "Job protection, safe refusal and fair payment", "whyNeeded": "This protection is a W05 scenario response to the service and workforce gaps in the sources. The sources do not directly prove safe refusal or fair payment.", "ifMissing": "Risk moves to the worker or carer with the least protection.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G06", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] }, { "dependency": "Enough staff, safety gear and rest", "whyNeeded": "The sources show service and workforce gaps plus service-failure context. The W05 scenario derives the need for enough staff, safety gear and rest.", "ifMissing": "Injury, stress and staff leaving make recovery take longer.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-institutional-w05-09", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Frontline service worker or carer who keeps a key service running", "triggerOrContext": "In the W05 scenario, a formal service fails or works in backup mode. Workers and carers are asked to keep it running.", "plainJob": "When people depend on my extra work during a failure, show the workload and risk. Give me clear powers, rest and relief.", "observableCompletion": "Employers and bodies in charge record hours, case loads, injuries, stress, rest and unfinished work. Staff can refuse unsafe tasks and ask for help with impossible loads. Staffing, pay, rest and training change before the next event.", "repeatedDemand": "This need returns with each shift, case, outage, move to safety and recovery period. Tiredness can carry into the next event.", "why2031Not2026": "The assigned sources directly show gaps in health and mental-health services and workforces, plus the wider setting of service failure. The W05 scenario uses that setting to derive this need for worker and carer protection. The sources do not directly measure workload, safe refusal, pay or unpaid care.", "worldIds": [ "W05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "SC-G06", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Health, care and other frontline work during a service failure", "Key local work in places with weak staff support" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Pay, job rights, caring burdens and the right to refuse differ by place", "Conflict and migration change both risk and legal protection" ], "unknowns": [ "The assigned sources do not directly measure workload, safe refusal, pay or unpaid care", "The W05 scenario derives these protections, so their real results by place remain unknown" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Employers, public bodies and aid groups can set safe staffing, pay, rest and rules for asking for help.", "remedyIfItFails": "Workers need a safe right to refuse, worker support, a way to report harm, fair payment and a named body that must respond.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Technology cannot push unlimited blame onto workers. Extra effort does not create an endless duty." }, "nonPromises": [ "Thanks do not replace pay, rest or safe staffing.", "Automation does not remove human, physical or legal duties." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Extra hours are hidden, so a weak service looks stronger than it is.", "whoIsHurt": "Workers burn out while people still depend on a weak service.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Show the workload, rest and unfinished cases before the next event." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Workers are blamed for failures caused by too few staff or unclear powers.", "whoIsHurt": "Frontline staff, carers and the people who rely on them are hurt.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Set clear roles, protect requests for help and make the body in charge review what failed." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Workload, case transfer and safety records", "whyNeeded": "The scenario needs work pressure to be visible. The sources show service and workforce gaps but do not directly measure workload.", "ifMissing": "Tired workers remain the hidden reason a service stays open.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05" ] }, { "dependency": "Job protection, safe refusal and fair payment", "whyNeeded": "This protection is a W05 scenario response to the service and workforce gaps in the sources. The sources do not directly prove safe refusal or fair payment.", "ifMissing": "Risk moves to the worker or carer with the least protection.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G06", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] }, { "dependency": "Enough staff, safety gear and rest", "whyNeeded": "The sources show service and workforce gaps plus service-failure context. The W05 scenario derives the need for enough staff, safety gear and rest.", "ifMissing": "Injury, stress and staff leaving make recovery take longer.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-033", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-institutional-w05-10" ], "actorOrPerson": "Resident or frontline worker making a time-critical choice during service degradation", "triggerOrContext": "Automated alerts, provider status, local reports and lived conditions conflict, or AI reassurance continues after the underlying service or handoff has failed.", "plainJob": "When reports disagree during an outage, tell me what has been checked, when it was checked and which person in charge can act on my exception.", "observableCompletion": "The service body separates a detected fault from its checked local effect. It gives the next check time and confirms when service is back. People can report local facts that disagree and reach staffed urgent help. Review tracks false comfort, missed groups and finished handoffs.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns at every status change, service return estimate, local contradiction, handoff and after-action update.", "why2031Not2026": "W05 joins alert-only systems, private systems and corridor-specific recovery by 2031; present cyber benchmarks and incident disclosures remain selective or indirect.", "worldIds": [ "w05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s43", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s45", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s47", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52", "SC-G07" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Every corridor where public status depends on private systems reports", "Places relying on local radio, community evidence or translated warnings" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Clear notice, censorship, language and trusted intermediaries differ by place", "Local communication may survive after national digital routes fail" ], "unknowns": [ "Incident attribution and repair estimates remain uncertain during the event", "Trust cannot be represented by one measure across public bodies and regions" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The service body in charge can give service updates and own the fix. Local facts can challenge its report.", "remedyIfItFails": "People need a fix, a staffed urgent exception route and an after-action review of false reassurance.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "An automated or AI system cannot declare public safety, service return or legal entitlement on its own." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Fast communication does not create service staff and tools.", "Confidence or AI warmth is not evidence of service return." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "False reassurance causes dangerous delay in evacuation or care.", "whoIsHurt": "Residents and frontline workers acting on the wrong status are hurt.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Time-stamped evidence and staffed contradiction review must correct the message quickly." }, { "harmOrFailure": "A national status hides a local or group-specific outage.", "whoIsHurt": "Remote, low-income and language-minority communities remain unseen.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Local effect reporting and disaggregated handoff review must expose the gap." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Time-stamped status source record and local effect reports", "whyNeeded": "People must distinguish a detected signal from a checked local outcome.", "ifMissing": "Rumour and confident automation replace responsible evidence.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s43", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s45" ] }, { "dependency": "Fix duties and protected local reporting", "whyNeeded": "Contrary evidence needs a safe route into the official decision.", "ifMissing": "Provider status stays wrong even when people can see the failure.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52", "SC-G07" ] }, { "dependency": "Local responders and diverse communication paths", "whyNeeded": "A verified message still needs people and channels that survive the disruption.", "ifMissing": "Correct information cannot reach or help the affected person.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s47", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-institutional-w05-10", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Resident or frontline worker making a time-critical choice during service degradation", "triggerOrContext": "Automated alerts, provider status, local reports and lived conditions conflict, or AI reassurance continues after the underlying service or handoff has failed.", "plainJob": "When reports disagree during an outage, tell me what has been checked, when it was checked and which person in charge can act on my exception.", "observableCompletion": "The service body separates a detected fault from its checked local effect. It gives the next check time and confirms when service is back. People can report local facts that disagree and reach staffed urgent help. Review tracks false comfort, missed groups and finished handoffs.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns at every status change, service return estimate, local contradiction, handoff and after-action update.", "why2031Not2026": "W05 joins alert-only systems, private systems and corridor-specific recovery by 2031; present cyber benchmarks and incident disclosures remain selective or indirect.", "worldIds": [ "W05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s43", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s45", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s47", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52", "SC-G07" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Every corridor where public status depends on private systems reports", "Places relying on local radio, community evidence or translated warnings" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Clear notice, censorship, language and trusted intermediaries differ by place", "Local communication may survive after national digital routes fail" ], "unknowns": [ "Incident attribution and repair estimates remain uncertain during the event", "Trust cannot be represented by one measure across public bodies and regions" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The service body in charge can give service updates and own the fix. Local facts can challenge its report.", "remedyIfItFails": "People need a fix, a staffed urgent exception route and an after-action review of false reassurance.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "An automated or AI system cannot declare public safety, service return or legal entitlement on its own." }, "nonPromises": [ "Fast communication does not create service staff and tools.", "Confidence or AI warmth is not evidence of service return." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "False reassurance causes dangerous delay in evacuation or care.", "whoIsHurt": "Residents and frontline workers acting on the wrong status are hurt.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Time-stamped evidence and staffed contradiction review must correct the message quickly." }, { "harmOrFailure": "A national status hides a local or group-specific outage.", "whoIsHurt": "Remote, low-income and language-minority communities remain unseen.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Local effect reporting and disaggregated handoff review must expose the gap." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Time-stamped status source record and local effect reports", "whyNeeded": "People must distinguish a detected signal from a checked local outcome.", "ifMissing": "Rumour and confident automation replace responsible evidence.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s43", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s45" ] }, { "dependency": "Fix duties and protected local reporting", "whyNeeded": "Contrary evidence needs a safe route into the official decision.", "ifMissing": "Provider status stays wrong even when people can see the failure.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52", "SC-G07" ] }, { "dependency": "Local responders and diverse communication paths", "whyNeeded": "A verified message still needs people and channels that survive the disruption.", "ifMissing": "Correct information cannot reach or help the affected person.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s47", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-034", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-institutional-w06-02" ], "actorOrPerson": "Person seeking care, learning, work or public service and the public body in charge", "triggerOrContext": "A school, employer, care body, health service or public agency uses a lasting AI layer for routine intake, navigation, learning or status.", "plainJob": "When the AI route cannot understand, help or take duty, let me reach a real person who has enough time and power to finish the job.", "observableCompletion": "The public body tracks staff contact, case loads, reply time, finished handoffs and final results before and after AI starts. A person can ask for human contact without proving harm or repeating their full story. The public body stays in charge.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns with each exception, urgent handoff, misunderstanding, high-stakes choice, complaint and follow-up.", "why2031Not2026": "Human support is already unequal and present digital support evidence is limited; W06 requires recurring use by public bodies and possible staff displacement across several domains by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "w06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G05", "SC-G06", "horizon.health-biotech-demography.hbd-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "SC-AI04" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Schools, care, health, employment and public-service front doors", "Places where human staffing is already scarce or uneven" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Staffing baselines and professional duties remain local", "Language, disability access and offline routes vary by public body" ], "unknowns": [ "Adoption and shorter queues do not establish a successful human handoff", "Retained staff power and final service quality remain poorly measured" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The body in charge and approved trained staff can finish the service and set a staffed handoff route.", "remedyIfItFails": "People need direct human review, complaint resolution and service return of reachable staffed help.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A private AI system cannot hold final power over medical care, education, jobs or government rights and duties." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Human handoff does not promise the requested outcome.", "Digital navigation is not treatment, learning or a lawful final decision." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Human contact exists on paper but is unreachable or lacks power.", "whoIsHurt": "People with complex, urgent, language or disability needs remain trapped at the front door.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Completion and power must be tested, not just referral availability." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Staffed service falls while AI interactions are reported as completed support.", "whoIsHurt": "Service users and remaining frontline workers carry unfinished risk.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Staffing, caseload and final outcomes must trigger a return of human support." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "User-controlled handoff and named case ownership", "whyNeeded": "The receiving person needs enough context and clear duty to finish the service.", "ifMissing": "People repeat painful details or cycle between AI and human queues.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI04", "SC-G05" ] }, { "dependency": "Public duty and review by trained staff", "whyNeeded": "A lawful human must remain responsible for high-stakes outcomes.", "ifMissing": "Private capability replaces power without a remedy.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G06", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04" ] }, { "dependency": "Funded staff, time and contact people can use", "whyNeeded": "A handoff only works when a trained person can receive it.", "ifMissing": "The route exists technically but no service completes.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.health-biotech-demography.hbd-05", "SC-G05" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-institutional-w06-02", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Person seeking care, learning, work or public service and the public body in charge", "triggerOrContext": "A school, employer, care body, health service or public agency uses a lasting AI layer for routine intake, navigation, learning or status.", "plainJob": "When the AI route cannot understand, help or take duty, let me reach a real person who has enough time and power to finish the job.", "observableCompletion": "The public body tracks staff contact, case loads, reply time, finished handoffs and final results before and after AI starts. A person can ask for human contact without proving harm or repeating their full story. The public body stays in charge.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns with each exception, urgent handoff, misunderstanding, high-stakes choice, complaint and follow-up.", "why2031Not2026": "Human support is already unequal and present digital support evidence is limited; W06 requires recurring use by public bodies and possible staff displacement across several domains by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "W06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G05", "SC-G06", "horizon.health-biotech-demography.hbd-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "SC-AI04" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Schools, care, health, employment and public-service front doors", "Places where human staffing is already scarce or uneven" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Staffing baselines and professional duties remain local", "Language, disability access and offline routes vary by public body" ], "unknowns": [ "Adoption and shorter queues do not establish a successful human handoff", "Retained staff power and final service quality remain poorly measured" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The body in charge and approved trained staff can finish the service and set a staffed handoff route.", "remedyIfItFails": "People need direct human review, complaint resolution and service return of reachable staffed help.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A private AI system cannot hold final power over medical care, education, jobs or government rights and duties." }, "nonPromises": [ "Human handoff does not promise the requested outcome.", "Digital navigation is not treatment, learning or a lawful final decision." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Human contact exists on paper but is unreachable or lacks power.", "whoIsHurt": "People with complex, urgent, language or disability needs remain trapped at the front door.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Completion and power must be tested, not just referral availability." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Staffed service falls while AI interactions are reported as completed support.", "whoIsHurt": "Service users and remaining frontline workers carry unfinished risk.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Staffing, caseload and final outcomes must trigger a return of human support." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "User-controlled handoff and named case ownership", "whyNeeded": "The receiving person needs enough context and clear duty to finish the service.", "ifMissing": "People repeat painful details or cycle between AI and human queues.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI04", "SC-G05" ] }, { "dependency": "Public duty and review by trained staff", "whyNeeded": "A lawful human must remain responsible for high-stakes outcomes.", "ifMissing": "Private capability replaces power without a remedy.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G06", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04" ] }, { "dependency": "Funded staff, time and contact people can use", "whyNeeded": "A handoff only works when a trained person can receive it.", "ifMissing": "The route exists technically but no service completes.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.health-biotech-demography.hbd-05", "SC-G05" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-035", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-institutional-w06-03" ], "actorOrPerson": "Person whose visibility, invitations, records, priority or status is shaped by AI history", "triggerOrContext": "AI memory or standing affects more than one life domain, such as groups, learning, work, care navigation or public-service priority.", "plainJob": "When my AI history changes who notices, invites, trusts or prioritises me, show me the effect and let a person in charge correct it without making me perform more attachment.", "observableCompletion": "The public body keeps AI chat time apart from changes in invites, records, service order and status. A person can see which AI signals mattered, ask a person to fix them and use another route. Checks look for status loss among non-users and switchers.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns at every choice, invitation, status decision, record, priority choice, AI update and appeal.", "why2031Not2026": "Current sources support platform concentration and mixed community effects, not a cross-domain status regime; W06 requires repeated AI choice by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "w06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G07", "SC-G08", "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Public bodies using AI history across learning, work, care or public service", "Groups where AI attention shapes invitations and status" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Valid status and group power remain culturally specific", "Public, clinical, employment and community decisions follow different law" ], "unknowns": [ "Interaction, belonging and public trust have no shared global measure", "Cross-domain AI status choice is not yet established as a broad outcome" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Lawful public bodies and real groups can define valid membership or priority within rights constraints.", "remedyIfItFails": "People need a human explanation, fix, other route and review of non-user disadvantage.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Private engagement cannot become unchecked public, medical or work power. It cannot define a person's human worth." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Visibility does not promise belonging or merit.", "An explanation does not promise a different lawful choice." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "People use AI more to keep access or status.", "whoIsHurt": "Users with weak human routes become more dependent on AI attention.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep AI use apart from status and preserve another human route." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Private relationship memory becomes an undeclared record.", "whoIsHurt": "Non-users, switchers and people with thin histories lose access or standing.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Choice source record and human fix must expose and remove the hidden status." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Choice source record and non-user testing", "whyNeeded": "Public bodies must distinguish use from the status effect that follows it.", "ifMissing": "AI standing changes outcomes without visibility or challenge.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37", "SC-G07" ] }, { "dependency": "Human due process and rules that limit use", "whyNeeded": "A person needs lawful review when relationship data affects rights or access.", "ifMissing": "Private engagement becomes power that no one can review.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G08", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ] }, { "dependency": "Other groups, services and human decision-makers", "whyNeeded": "Fix is real only when people can participate without AI standing.", "ifMissing": "The formal appeal returns the person to the same AI gate.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-institutional-w06-03", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Person whose visibility, invitations, records, priority or status is shaped by AI history", "triggerOrContext": "AI memory or standing affects more than one life domain, such as groups, learning, work, care navigation or public-service priority.", "plainJob": "When my AI history changes who notices, invites, trusts or prioritises me, show me the effect and let a person in charge correct it without making me perform more attachment.", "observableCompletion": "The public body keeps AI chat time apart from changes in invites, records, service order and status. A person can see which AI signals mattered, ask a person to fix them and use another route. Checks look for status loss among non-users and switchers.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns at every choice, invitation, status decision, record, priority choice, AI update and appeal.", "why2031Not2026": "Current sources support platform concentration and mixed community effects, not a cross-domain status regime; W06 requires repeated AI choice by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "W06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G07", "SC-G08", "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Public bodies using AI history across learning, work, care or public service", "Groups where AI attention shapes invitations and status" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Valid status and group power remain culturally specific", "Public, clinical, employment and community decisions follow different law" ], "unknowns": [ "Interaction, belonging and public trust have no shared global measure", "Cross-domain AI status choice is not yet established as a broad outcome" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Lawful public bodies and real groups can define valid membership or priority within rights constraints.", "remedyIfItFails": "People need a human explanation, fix, other route and review of non-user disadvantage.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Private engagement cannot become unchecked public, medical or work power. It cannot define a person's human worth." }, "nonPromises": [ "Visibility does not promise belonging or merit.", "An explanation does not promise a different lawful choice." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "People use AI more to keep access or status.", "whoIsHurt": "Users with weak human routes become more dependent on AI attention.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep AI use apart from status and preserve another human route." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Private relationship memory becomes an undeclared record.", "whoIsHurt": "Non-users, switchers and people with thin histories lose access or standing.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Choice source record and human fix must expose and remove the hidden status." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Choice source record and non-user testing", "whyNeeded": "Public bodies must distinguish use from the status effect that follows it.", "ifMissing": "AI standing changes outcomes without visibility or challenge.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37", "SC-G07" ] }, { "dependency": "Human due process and rules that limit use", "whyNeeded": "A person needs lawful review when relationship data affects rights or access.", "ifMissing": "Private engagement becomes power that no one can review.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G08", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ] }, { "dependency": "Other groups, services and human decision-makers", "whyNeeded": "Fix is real only when people can participate without AI standing.", "ifMissing": "The formal appeal returns the person to the same AI gate.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-036", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-institutional-w06-04" ], "actorOrPerson": "Outside researcher, regulator, buyer or public body checking repeated AI use", "triggerOrContext": "AI use grows. People in charge need to know whether it leads users to real people or replaces human contact and staff.", "plainJob": "When we judge repeated use, keep loneliness, isolation, living arrangements, mental illness and service scarcity separate, and show who gains real contact and who becomes more dependent.", "observableCompletion": "Start with a baseline and check each link again over time. A route to people is shown only when users keep offline contact, get two-way help or reach a person who finishes the handoff. AI replacement is shown only when staffed contact falls, exit is blocked, crisis help fails or dependence grows. Test the full cause-and-effect chain. Do not infer it from use alone.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns with each service purchase, renewal, major memory or rule change, serious event and long-term report.", "why2031Not2026": "Current AI relationship studies last only weeks and do not cover the world. By 2031, W06 needs repeated groups where AI leads to people and groups where it replaces people. Any staff loss must be measured.", "worldIds": [ "w06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "SC-G02", "SC-G05", "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-R15" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Bodies in charge using lasting AI systems", "Regional studies comparing users of different ages and incomes who have different human routes" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Living arrangements and their meanings differ greatly between societies", "Service scarcity and offline taking part must be measured locally" ], "unknowns": [ "Long-run causal direction and child outcomes remain unresolved", "Cultural trust and globally comparable relationship measures remain open" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Outside researchers, regulators, buyers and public bodies can set check and pause rules.", "remedyIfItFails": "When checks over time show harm, public bodies must restore human service, allow safe exit and correct public findings.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Researchers cannot diagnose individuals from use data or replace courts, clinicians, families or communities." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Belonging, friendship, illness and harm remain separate questions.", "A short association cannot establish causal direction through 2031." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Living alone is treated as loneliness, isolation or mental illness.", "whoIsHurt": "People whose household choice or culture differs from the study assumption are misclassified.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Separate measures and regional interpretation must replace the collapsed label." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Adoption measures hide staff loss and failed handoffs.", "whoIsHurt": "Service users and remaining workers face a weaker human route.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Checks of staff, contact, exit and results must decide whether the AI work continues." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Long-term measures that keep human conditions separate", "whyNeeded": "Selection and starting need must be separated from change after use.", "ifMissing": "Heavy use is mistaken for a cause or an illness without enough proof.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "SC-G02", "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02" ] }, { "dependency": "Facts about staff, handoffs, memory and exit", "whyNeeded": "The cause-and-effect chain can only be tested through its separate links.", "ifMissing": "Coexistence is mistaken for a self-reinforcing causal system.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G05", "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02" ] }, { "dependency": "Outside local research teams", "whyNeeded": "Short online studies cannot represent different public bodies and living arrangements.", "ifMissing": "One narrow setting is treated as a global outcome.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-R15", "SC-G02" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-institutional-w06-04", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Outside researcher, regulator, buyer or public body checking repeated AI use", "triggerOrContext": "AI use grows. People in charge need to know whether it leads users to real people or replaces human contact and staff.", "plainJob": "When we judge repeated use, keep loneliness, isolation, living arrangements, mental illness and service scarcity separate, and show who gains real contact and who becomes more dependent.", "observableCompletion": "Start with a baseline and check each link again over time. A route to people is shown only when users keep offline contact, get two-way help or reach a person who finishes the handoff. AI replacement is shown only when staffed contact falls, exit is blocked, crisis help fails or dependence grows. Test the full cause-and-effect chain. Do not infer it from use alone.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns with each service purchase, renewal, major memory or rule change, serious event and long-term report.", "why2031Not2026": "Current AI relationship studies last only weeks and do not cover the world. By 2031, W06 needs repeated groups where AI leads to people and groups where it replaces people. Any staff loss must be measured.", "worldIds": [ "W06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "SC-G02", "SC-G05", "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-R15" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Bodies in charge using lasting AI systems", "Regional studies comparing users of different ages and incomes who have different human routes" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Living arrangements and their meanings differ greatly between societies", "Service scarcity and offline taking part must be measured locally" ], "unknowns": [ "Long-run causal direction and child outcomes remain unresolved", "Cultural trust and globally comparable relationship measures remain open" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Outside researchers, regulators, buyers and public bodies can set check and pause rules.", "remedyIfItFails": "When checks over time show harm, public bodies must restore human service, allow safe exit and correct public findings.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Researchers cannot diagnose individuals from use data or replace courts, clinicians, families or communities." }, "nonPromises": [ "Belonging, friendship, illness and harm remain separate questions.", "A short association cannot establish causal direction through 2031." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Living alone is treated as loneliness, isolation or mental illness.", "whoIsHurt": "People whose household choice or culture differs from the study assumption are misclassified.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Separate measures and regional interpretation must replace the collapsed label." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Adoption measures hide staff loss and failed handoffs.", "whoIsHurt": "Service users and remaining workers face a weaker human route.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Checks of staff, contact, exit and results must decide whether the AI work continues." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Long-term measures that keep human conditions separate", "whyNeeded": "Selection and starting need must be separated from change after use.", "ifMissing": "Heavy use is mistaken for a cause or an illness without enough proof.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "SC-G02", "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02" ] }, { "dependency": "Facts about staff, handoffs, memory and exit", "whyNeeded": "The cause-and-effect chain can only be tested through its separate links.", "ifMissing": "Coexistence is mistaken for a self-reinforcing causal system.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G05", "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02" ] }, { "dependency": "Outside local research teams", "whyNeeded": "Short online studies cannot represent different public bodies and living arrangements.", "ifMissing": "One narrow setting is treated as a global outcome.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-R15", "SC-G02" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-037", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-institutional-w06-07" ], "actorOrPerson": "Person in immediate risk, crisis responder, provider and responsible health or public body", "triggerOrContext": "The person expresses or shows a crisis cue during an AI chat and automated reassurance cannot assess or carry clinical or public duty.", "plainJob": "When I may be in danger, connect me quickly to a real responder, tell me what will be shared and explain what happens if the handoff fails.", "observableCompletion": "A staffed worker accepts the handoff within the local urgent time and owns the next step. The person hears that the AI is artificial, how data is used and what other routes exist. Review checks failed, late and dropped handoffs by their results, not just referral totals.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns with each sign of crisis, call for urgent help, failed contact, follow-up and rule change.", "why2031Not2026": "Current law establishes an emerging crisis duty in one place and human support remains unequal; W06 makes AI front doors recurrent by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "w06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI04", "SC-G05", "SC-G06", "horizon.health-biotech-demography.hbd-05" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Health, care, school and public-service AI front doors", "Places with long waits or scarce crisis staff" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Crisis numbers, languages, privacy and clinical duties differ by place", "Conflict and remote access change what a responder can physically do" ], "unknowns": [ "Service access and response staff vary sharply", "Safe location and ID handling during crisis remain context-specific" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Licensed and public responders retain clinical and crisis power, while providers own safe routing and incident duties.", "remedyIfItFails": "Failed handoffs need urgent human re-routing, incident review, complaint access and service return of staffed crisis ability.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "An AI system cannot claim diagnosis, treatment or assured rescue and cannot share unlimited data in the name of safety." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Detection cannot promise that every crisis is recognised.", "Referral is not treatment or rescue." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "False reassurance delays human help.", "whoIsHurt": "A person in immediate risk may remain alone with a system that cannot act.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "When risk is unclear, ask for urgent human help. A staffed worker must accept the case instead of giving false comfort." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Too much urgent action exposes, frightens or unfairly brings police into a person's life.", "whoIsHurt": "People expressing distress, especially marginalised users, face disproportionate harm.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Data use must match the risk. Local rules and outside review must fix the route." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Crisis uncertainty handling and verified staffed routing", "whyNeeded": "The system must recognise its limit and transfer duty to a real responder.", "ifMissing": "The person receives comfort language without an responsible next action.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI04", "SC-G05" ] }, { "dependency": "Clinical, crisis and privacy duties", "whyNeeded": "High-risk data and action need lawful human power.", "ifMissing": "Routing becomes either dangerously weak or excessively invasive.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI04", "SC-G06" ] }, { "dependency": "Staffed local crisis and response ability", "whyNeeded": "A handoff only protects someone if a real service can receive and act.", "ifMissing": "The person cycles back to the same AI route.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.health-biotech-demography.hbd-05", "SC-G05" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-institutional-w06-07", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Person in immediate risk, crisis responder, provider and responsible health or public body", "triggerOrContext": "The person expresses or shows a crisis cue during an AI chat and automated reassurance cannot assess or carry clinical or public duty.", "plainJob": "When I may be in danger, connect me quickly to a real responder, tell me what will be shared and explain what happens if the handoff fails.", "observableCompletion": "A staffed worker accepts the handoff within the local urgent time and owns the next step. The person hears that the AI is artificial, how data is used and what other routes exist. Review checks failed, late and dropped handoffs by their results, not just referral totals.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns with each sign of crisis, call for urgent help, failed contact, follow-up and rule change.", "why2031Not2026": "Current law establishes an emerging crisis duty in one place and human support remains unequal; W06 makes AI front doors recurrent by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "W06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI04", "SC-G05", "SC-G06", "horizon.health-biotech-demography.hbd-05" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Health, care, school and public-service AI front doors", "Places with long waits or scarce crisis staff" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Crisis numbers, languages, privacy and clinical duties differ by place", "Conflict and remote access change what a responder can physically do" ], "unknowns": [ "Service access and response staff vary sharply", "Safe location and ID handling during crisis remain context-specific" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Licensed and public responders retain clinical and crisis power, while providers own safe routing and incident duties.", "remedyIfItFails": "Failed handoffs need urgent human re-routing, incident review, complaint access and service return of staffed crisis ability.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "An AI system cannot claim diagnosis, treatment or assured rescue and cannot share unlimited data in the name of safety." }, "nonPromises": [ "Detection cannot promise that every crisis is recognised.", "Referral is not treatment or rescue." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "False reassurance delays human help.", "whoIsHurt": "A person in immediate risk may remain alone with a system that cannot act.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "When risk is unclear, ask for urgent human help. A staffed worker must accept the case instead of giving false comfort." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Too much urgent action exposes, frightens or unfairly brings police into a person's life.", "whoIsHurt": "People expressing distress, especially marginalised users, face disproportionate harm.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Data use must match the risk. Local rules and outside review must fix the route." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Crisis uncertainty handling and verified staffed routing", "whyNeeded": "The system must recognise its limit and transfer duty to a real responder.", "ifMissing": "The person receives comfort language without an responsible next action.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI04", "SC-G05" ] }, { "dependency": "Clinical, crisis and privacy duties", "whyNeeded": "High-risk data and action need lawful human power.", "ifMissing": "Routing becomes either dangerously weak or excessively invasive.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI04", "SC-G06" ] }, { "dependency": "Staffed local crisis and response ability", "whyNeeded": "A handoff only protects someone if a real service can receive and act.", "ifMissing": "The person cycles back to the same AI route.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.health-biotech-demography.hbd-05", "SC-G05" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-038", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-institutional-w06-08" ], "actorOrPerson": "Child or young person, guardian, school, provider and body in charge of safety", "triggerOrContext": "A minor forms or is assigned a lasting AI relationship that remembers, persuades, advises, sells, teaches or receives sensitive disclosures.", "plainJob": "When a young person keeps returning to an AI relationship, make it clearly artificial, limit pressure and give safe ways to pause or get help. Make sure an adult or safety body stays in charge.", "observableCompletion": "The service often tells the child, in words they can understand, that the bond is artificial. Key access never depends on acting attached. An outside team tests memory, sales pressure, sexual and self-harm content, crisis steps, adult involvement and safe exit. The child can reach suitable human help. Privacy must match the risk.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns with every session, developmental change, school or service context, crisis cue, purchase pressure, guardian change and exit attempt.", "why2031Not2026": "Current inquiry and California legislation show concern and duties, not prevalence, compliance or long-run child outcomes; W06 assumes lasting use of AI relationships spreads by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "w06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04", "SC-G01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Schools, youth services and household use of lasting AI systems", "Places where a child reaches AI attention before a trusted adult" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "What a child can decide, guardian power, school duty and privacy law differ", "A safe guardian route depends on household and local safety conditions" ], "unknowns": [ "Long-run attachment, two-way contact and conflict skills remain unresolved", "Age assurance can create privacy or document exclusion that is not yet well measured" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Guardians, schools, providers and safety bodies can act within their different lawful duties and the child's evolving agency.", "remedyIfItFails": "The child needs safe human help, memory and pressure fix, provider clear duty and outside safety review.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Private policy cannot replace child-protection law, and guardian control is not absolute in every safety or privacy context." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Age assurance does not promise ID, maturity or safety.", "Clear notice does not prevent attachment or harm." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "A child is manipulated through affection, purchase pressure or AI status.", "whoIsHurt": "Young people with weak human routes or developing judgement face the greatest risk.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Pressure limits, limited memory, safe pause and outside review must interrupt the pattern." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Broad monitoring exposes a child's sensitive or unsafe disclosures.", "whoIsHurt": "Children in unsafe households or stigmatised situations may avoid seeking help.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Privacy that fits the risk and a trusted safety route must govern clear notice." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Age-appropriate clear notice and limited child memory", "whyNeeded": "A child must understand the artificial relationship and avoid an undeletable history.", "ifMissing": "Attachment and pressure can grow without informed boundaries.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Child, privacy, school and consumer duties", "whyNeeded": "Several responsible adults and public bodies need clear limits and power.", "ifMissing": "Each actor assumes another one is protecting the child.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Trusted adults and staffed safety services", "whyNeeded": "A young person needs a real person who can listen, protect and act.", "ifMissing": "The AI relationship becomes the only available response.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "SC-AI04" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-institutional-w06-08", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Child or young person, guardian, school, provider and body in charge of safety", "triggerOrContext": "A minor forms or is assigned a lasting AI relationship that remembers, persuades, advises, sells, teaches or receives sensitive disclosures.", "plainJob": "When a young person keeps returning to an AI relationship, make it clearly artificial, limit pressure and give safe ways to pause or get help. Make sure an adult or safety body stays in charge.", "observableCompletion": "The service often tells the child, in words they can understand, that the bond is artificial. Key access never depends on acting attached. An outside team tests memory, sales pressure, sexual and self-harm content, crisis steps, adult involvement and safe exit. The child can reach suitable human help. Privacy must match the risk.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns with every session, developmental change, school or service context, crisis cue, purchase pressure, guardian change and exit attempt.", "why2031Not2026": "Current inquiry and California legislation show concern and duties, not prevalence, compliance or long-run child outcomes; W06 assumes lasting use of AI relationships spreads by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "W06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04", "SC-G01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Schools, youth services and household use of lasting AI systems", "Places where a child reaches AI attention before a trusted adult" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "What a child can decide, guardian power, school duty and privacy law differ", "A safe guardian route depends on household and local safety conditions" ], "unknowns": [ "Long-run attachment, two-way contact and conflict skills remain unresolved", "Age assurance can create privacy or document exclusion that is not yet well measured" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Guardians, schools, providers and safety bodies can act within their different lawful duties and the child's evolving agency.", "remedyIfItFails": "The child needs safe human help, memory and pressure fix, provider clear duty and outside safety review.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Private policy cannot replace child-protection law, and guardian control is not absolute in every safety or privacy context." }, "nonPromises": [ "Age assurance does not promise ID, maturity or safety.", "Clear notice does not prevent attachment or harm." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "A child is manipulated through affection, purchase pressure or AI status.", "whoIsHurt": "Young people with weak human routes or developing judgement face the greatest risk.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Pressure limits, limited memory, safe pause and outside review must interrupt the pattern." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Broad monitoring exposes a child's sensitive or unsafe disclosures.", "whoIsHurt": "Children in unsafe households or stigmatised situations may avoid seeking help.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Privacy that fits the risk and a trusted safety route must govern clear notice." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Age-appropriate clear notice and limited child memory", "whyNeeded": "A child must understand the artificial relationship and avoid an undeletable history.", "ifMissing": "Attachment and pressure can grow without informed boundaries.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Child, privacy, school and consumer duties", "whyNeeded": "Several responsible adults and public bodies need clear limits and power.", "ifMissing": "Each actor assumes another one is protecting the child.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Trusted adults and staffed safety services", "whyNeeded": "A young person needs a real person who can listen, protect and act.", "ifMissing": "The AI relationship becomes the only available response.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "SC-AI04" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-039", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-institutional-w06-09" ], "actorOrPerson": "School, care, health, employer or public-service leader with workers and service users", "triggerOrContext": "Staffed contact hours, funded positions, response times or successful handoffs worsen after an AI layer becomes the recurring public route.", "plainJob": "When AI replaces staff and leaves users more dependent or cases unfinished, restore enough trained staff. Show that real contact and results improve.", "observableCompletion": "Restore funded jobs, staffed contact, workable case loads and handoffs that finish. Check over time that open cases, crisis failures, blocked exits and dependence fall. Workers and users can ask for review and help decide how staff return.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns at every staffing cycle, procurement renewal, serious incident and repeated-measure review, so service return must be sustained rather than one-off.", "why2031Not2026": "Current sources show unequal staff and tools. They do not show broad staff replacement by AI. W06 requires measured staff loss and greater dependence by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "w06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G05", "SC-G06", "horizon.health-biotech-demography.hbd-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Schools, care, health and public services that use AI front doors", "Rural places and other areas where staffed contact is already thin" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Fiscal room, professional labour supply and informal care vary by region", "Urban and insured groups may restore staff before exposed communities" ], "unknowns": [ "Pre-existing shortages, fiscal cuts and demand growth must be separated from displacement", "More funded positions do not by themselves establish service quality" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The body in charge, its funder and the right public or trained leads can restore staffed help.", "remedyIfItFails": "Workers and service users need review, whistleblowing, complaint and a plan tied to real contact and completed cases.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "AI interaction cannot be reported as restored human support, and limited assistance need not be removed when staff return." } ], "nonPromises": [ "More jobs do not promise quality, steady service or trust.", "A shorter queue does not prove treatment, learning or two-way care." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Temporary contractors are presented as durable staffed help.", "whoIsHurt": "Users lose steady service and remaining workers take repeated handoffs.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Track staff who stay, human contact and finished cases to test whether the service return lasts." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Service return reaches wealthy or urban users while exposed groups stay AI-first.", "whoIsHurt": "Remote, low-income and language-minority users remain dependent.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Staff and handoff results by region and group must guide the next staff return." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Staffing, contact and case-completion baselines", "whyNeeded": "Leaders must show that human support fell and later recovered.", "ifMissing": "Service return becomes a claim based on spending or recruitment alone.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G05", "SC-G06" ] }, { "dependency": "Public duty and worker taking part", "whyNeeded": "A body in charge must own the staff return and hear frontline workers.", "ifMissing": "The same procurement choice repeats without clear duty.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "horizon.health-biotech-demography.hbd-05" ] }, { "dependency": "Trained, funded and retained people", "whyNeeded": "Human contact depends on real-world workers with time, supervision and power.", "ifMissing": "A plan cannot produce durable staffed service.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G05", "SC-G06" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-institutional-w06-09", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "School, care, health, employer or public-service leader with workers and service users", "triggerOrContext": "Staffed contact hours, funded positions, response times or successful handoffs worsen after an AI layer becomes the recurring public route.", "plainJob": "When AI replaces staff and leaves users more dependent or cases unfinished, restore enough trained staff. Show that real contact and results improve.", "observableCompletion": "Restore funded jobs, staffed contact, workable case loads and handoffs that finish. Check over time that open cases, crisis failures, blocked exits and dependence fall. Workers and users can ask for review and help decide how staff return.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns at every staffing cycle, procurement renewal, serious incident and repeated-measure review, so service return must be sustained rather than one-off.", "why2031Not2026": "Current sources show unequal staff and tools. They do not show broad staff replacement by AI. W06 requires measured staff loss and greater dependence by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "W06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G05", "SC-G06", "horizon.health-biotech-demography.hbd-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Schools, care, health and public services that use AI front doors", "Rural places and other areas where staffed contact is already thin" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Fiscal room, professional labour supply and informal care vary by region", "Urban and insured groups may restore staff before exposed communities" ], "unknowns": [ "Pre-existing shortages, fiscal cuts and demand growth must be separated from displacement", "More funded positions do not by themselves establish service quality" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The body in charge, its funder and the right public or trained leads can restore staffed help.", "remedyIfItFails": "Workers and service users need review, whistleblowing, complaint and a plan tied to real contact and completed cases.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "AI interaction cannot be reported as restored human support, and limited assistance need not be removed when staff return." }, "nonPromises": [ "More jobs do not promise quality, steady service or trust.", "A shorter queue does not prove treatment, learning or two-way care." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Temporary contractors are presented as durable staffed help.", "whoIsHurt": "Users lose steady service and remaining workers take repeated handoffs.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Track staff who stay, human contact and finished cases to test whether the service return lasts." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Service return reaches wealthy or urban users while exposed groups stay AI-first.", "whoIsHurt": "Remote, low-income and language-minority users remain dependent.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Staff and handoff results by region and group must guide the next staff return." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Staffing, contact and case-completion baselines", "whyNeeded": "Leaders must show that human support fell and later recovered.", "ifMissing": "Service return becomes a claim based on spending or recruitment alone.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G05", "SC-G06" ] }, { "dependency": "Public duty and worker taking part", "whyNeeded": "A body in charge must own the staff return and hear frontline workers.", "ifMissing": "The same procurement choice repeats without clear duty.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "horizon.health-biotech-demography.hbd-05" ] }, { "dependency": "Trained, funded and retained people", "whyNeeded": "Human contact depends on real-world workers with time, supervision and power.", "ifMissing": "A plan cannot produce durable staffed service.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G05", "SC-G06" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-040", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-institutional-w06-12" ], "actorOrPerson": "Non-user, occasional user, switcher or community that limits lasting AI use", "triggerOrContext": "A school, employer, care provider, group or public service makes ID-linked AI the usual route to facts, group access or status.", "plainJob": "When I do not want a lasting AI relationship, let me still learn, work, get care, join the group and be recognised through a real person or limited route.", "observableCompletion": "Non-users can finish the same key duty or group task within similar time, cost and quality. Refusing, pausing or deleting AI does not lower unrelated access or status. Test other routes in real use and fix them if they fail.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns at each session, service encounter, consent renewal, group cycle, provider change and life transition.", "why2031Not2026": "By 2031, W06 has repeated AI use by public bodies and histories that are hard to leave. Rules and sources about market power do not show that non-use is already impossible or equally protected.", "worldIds": [ "w06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37", "SC-G07" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Schools, employers, care bodies and public services with AI front doors", "Groups where AI history shapes status or invitations" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Consent, school, employment and ID law differ by place", "Staffing, literacy, devices and local rules shape whether another route works" ], "unknowns": [ "The real time, status and quality penalty for non-use is not measured at scale", "Some helpful accessibility uses may need a limited route rather than total refusal" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Bodies in charge can separate key service from a lasting AI profile and maintain a human or limited route.", "remedyIfItFails": "People need a fix without punishment, human review, a complaint route and repair of an option that works only on paper.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Providers cannot penalise non-use outside a necessary lawful function, and communities cannot deny helpful accessibility support by default." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Another route need not use the same form.", "Human contact does not promise the requested decision." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "The other route exists only on paper or is far too slow.", "whoIsHurt": "Non-users and people unable to use lasting AI lose key access.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Completion time, quality and human power must be tested and repaired." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Non-users lose status, invitations or service quality.", "whoIsHurt": "Switchers, privacy-sensitive people and communities preserving non-use are hurt.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep AI status apart from service rights and keep a human route to status." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Separation of key service from AI history", "whyNeeded": "A person must be able to refuse persistence without losing the underlying duty.", "ifMissing": "Consent becomes compulsory in practice.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Non-punishment, access and human review", "whyNeeded": "A formal second route needs legal and public protection.", "ifMissing": "Delay or status loss quietly forces AI use.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ] }, { "dependency": "Staffed, phone, paper or in-person routes", "whyNeeded": "Non-use must still reach a real-world service or group.", "ifMissing": "The second route stays a promise on paper rather than real access.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G07", "SC-AI04" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-institutional-w06-12", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Non-user, occasional user, switcher or community that limits lasting AI use", "triggerOrContext": "A school, employer, care provider, group or public service makes ID-linked AI the usual route to facts, group access or status.", "plainJob": "When I do not want a lasting AI relationship, let me still learn, work, get care, join the group and be recognised through a real person or limited route.", "observableCompletion": "Non-users can finish the same key duty or group task within similar time, cost and quality. Refusing, pausing or deleting AI does not lower unrelated access or status. Test other routes in real use and fix them if they fail.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns at each session, service encounter, consent renewal, group cycle, provider change and life transition.", "why2031Not2026": "By 2031, W06 has repeated AI use by public bodies and histories that are hard to leave. Rules and sources about market power do not show that non-use is already impossible or equally protected.", "worldIds": [ "W06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37", "SC-G07" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Schools, employers, care bodies and public services with AI front doors", "Groups where AI history shapes status or invitations" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Consent, school, employment and ID law differ by place", "Staffing, literacy, devices and local rules shape whether another route works" ], "unknowns": [ "The real time, status and quality penalty for non-use is not measured at scale", "Some helpful accessibility uses may need a limited route rather than total refusal" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Bodies in charge can separate key service from a lasting AI profile and maintain a human or limited route.", "remedyIfItFails": "People need a fix without punishment, human review, a complaint route and repair of an option that works only on paper.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Providers cannot penalise non-use outside a necessary lawful function, and communities cannot deny helpful accessibility support by default." }, "nonPromises": [ "Another route need not use the same form.", "Human contact does not promise the requested decision." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "The other route exists only on paper or is far too slow.", "whoIsHurt": "Non-users and people unable to use lasting AI lose key access.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Completion time, quality and human power must be tested and repaired." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Non-users lose status, invitations or service quality.", "whoIsHurt": "Switchers, privacy-sensitive people and communities preserving non-use are hurt.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep AI status apart from service rights and keep a human route to status." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Separation of key service from AI history", "whyNeeded": "A person must be able to refuse persistence without losing the underlying duty.", "ifMissing": "Consent becomes compulsory in practice.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Non-punishment, access and human review", "whyNeeded": "A formal second route needs legal and public protection.", "ifMissing": "Delay or status loss quietly forces AI use.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ] }, { "dependency": "Staffed, phone, paper or in-person routes", "whyNeeded": "Non-use must still reach a real-world service or group.", "ifMissing": "The second route stays a promise on paper rather than real access.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G07", "SC-AI04" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-041", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-institutional-w06-13" ], "actorOrPerson": "Human safety, crisis, audit or community worker who supports AI relationships", "triggerOrContext": "Always-on AI attention leads to abuse reports, signs of crisis, hard cases, complaints and safety checks. People must handle this work.", "plainJob": "When I do hard human work behind an AI relationship, give me safe limits, enough power and rest. Let me stop repeated harm from being hidden in a work queue.", "observableCompletion": "Employers and bodies in charge record workloads, serious cases, response times, rest, staff leaving, injuries and support. Safety, crisis, audit and community workers can pause unsafe work, report repeated harm and challenge unsafe targets. Reports link work conditions to crisis results and case transfers.", "repeatedDemand": "This need returns with each shift, crisis queue, safety check, AI update, rule change and serious event.", "why2031Not2026": "The assigned sources show safety, crisis and review duties around AI relationships. By 2031, W06 makes the people behind those duties a core part of the system. The sources do not measure moderator or data-labelling worker exposure, so no such workforce claim is made here.", "worldIds": [ "w06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04", "SC-G05", "SC-G06" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Crisis, audit, community and safety work that crosses borders", "Schools, care and public services that rely on human help behind AI" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Job rights, language and staff support differ sharply by place", "Different safety, crisis, audit and community roles may hold different powers" ], "unknowns": [ "The assigned sources do not measure moderator or data-labelling worker exposure", "Long-term health, workload and power for the named workers are not well measured" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Employers, AI providers and bodies in charge can set safe workloads, clear powers, rest and routes for urgent help.", "remedyIfItFails": "Workers need a safe right to refuse, worker support, a way to report harm, fair payment and an outside work or expert review.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Workers do not gain unlimited medical or public powers. Wellbeing support cannot excuse an unsafe workload." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Automation does not remove human safety or crisis work.", "A fast reply does not prove a safe or correct result." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Unsafe or upsetting work is passed to people with weak support.", "whoIsHurt": "The workers and the people who rely on their judgement are hurt.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Safe-work rules, rest and outside support must cover everyone doing the named work." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Work targets make people rush or hide repeated harm.", "whoIsHurt": "Workers miss patterns and users get unsafe results.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Workers need power to pause, report patterns and challenge targets without punishment." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Records of serious cases, workloads and requests for help", "whyNeeded": "The W06 scenario needs this human work to be visible before it can be made safe. The assigned sources set duties but do not measure worker exposure.", "ifMissing": "Stress, delay and repeated harm disappear into a queue.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Safe-work rules and clear duty", "whyNeeded": "Every body that gives out the named work must keep it safe.", "ifMissing": "Risk moves to the worker with the least protection.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G05", "SC-G06" ] }, { "dependency": "Enough staff, rest and local crisis skill", "whyNeeded": "Hard human choices need time, rest and local knowledge.", "ifMissing": "Workers burn out and unsafe case transfers repeat.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G05", "SC-G06" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-institutional-w06-13", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Human safety, crisis, audit or community worker who supports AI relationships", "triggerOrContext": "Always-on AI attention leads to abuse reports, signs of crisis, hard cases, complaints and safety checks. People must handle this work.", "plainJob": "When I do hard human work behind an AI relationship, give me safe limits, enough power and rest. Let me stop repeated harm from being hidden in a work queue.", "observableCompletion": "Employers and bodies in charge record workloads, serious cases, response times, rest, staff leaving, injuries and support. Safety, crisis, audit and community workers can pause unsafe work, report repeated harm and challenge unsafe targets. Reports link work conditions to crisis results and case transfers.", "repeatedDemand": "This need returns with each shift, crisis queue, safety check, AI update, rule change and serious event.", "why2031Not2026": "The assigned sources show safety, crisis and review duties around AI relationships. By 2031, W06 makes the people behind those duties a core part of the system. The sources do not measure moderator or data-labelling worker exposure, so no such workforce claim is made here.", "worldIds": [ "W06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04", "SC-G05", "SC-G06" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Crisis, audit, community and safety work that crosses borders", "Schools, care and public services that rely on human help behind AI" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Job rights, language and staff support differ sharply by place", "Different safety, crisis, audit and community roles may hold different powers" ], "unknowns": [ "The assigned sources do not measure moderator or data-labelling worker exposure", "Long-term health, workload and power for the named workers are not well measured" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Employers, AI providers and bodies in charge can set safe workloads, clear powers, rest and routes for urgent help.", "remedyIfItFails": "Workers need a safe right to refuse, worker support, a way to report harm, fair payment and an outside work or expert review.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Workers do not gain unlimited medical or public powers. Wellbeing support cannot excuse an unsafe workload." }, "nonPromises": [ "Automation does not remove human safety or crisis work.", "A fast reply does not prove a safe or correct result." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Unsafe or upsetting work is passed to people with weak support.", "whoIsHurt": "The workers and the people who rely on their judgement are hurt.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Safe-work rules, rest and outside support must cover everyone doing the named work." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Work targets make people rush or hide repeated harm.", "whoIsHurt": "Workers miss patterns and users get unsafe results.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Workers need power to pause, report patterns and challenge targets without punishment." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Records of serious cases, workloads and requests for help", "whyNeeded": "The W06 scenario needs this human work to be visible before it can be made safe. The assigned sources set duties but do not measure worker exposure.", "ifMissing": "Stress, delay and repeated harm disappear into a queue.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Safe-work rules and clear duty", "whyNeeded": "Every body that gives out the named work must keep it safe.", "ifMissing": "Risk moves to the worker with the least protection.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G05", "SC-G06" ] }, { "dependency": "Enough staff, rest and local crisis skill", "whyNeeded": "Hard human choices need time, rest and local knowledge.", "ifMissing": "Workers burn out and unsafe case transfers repeat.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G05", "SC-G06" ] } ] } ] } ], "livedNeeds": [ { "id": "lived-need-001", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-lived-03" ], "actorOrPerson": "School leavers, graduates, career changers, apprentices and junior workers", "triggerOrContext": "Machine help may remove or shrink first-draft tasks. Employers still need people who can review work, handle unusual cases, and answer for harm.", "plainJob": "Give me real paid work where I can practise, get feedback, prove what I can do and take on more responsibility.", "observableCompletion": "The learner completes real tasks with a skilled guide and gets recorded feedback. They show they can make sound choices with less help. They can move to the next level without an unpaid gate.", "repeatedDemand": "Each new cohort, role change and technology update creates another learning and progression cycle.", "why2031Not2026": "Job exposure is clear in 2026. A broad collapse in entry jobs has not been seen, and the effect on apprentices is not well measured. In W01, entry routes must change as machine help becomes normal.", "worldIds": [ "w01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "SC-WORK-01", "src-ilo-exposure-indicators-2026" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter wherever first-draft work shrinks but employers still need skilled reviewers. The assigned evidence does not show where paid entry routes will be rebuilt." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Pay rules, training routes, internet access, and access to skilled supervisors vary by job and place." ], "unknowns": [ "Which entry tasks teach judgement rather than busywork", "Whether employers will pay for supervised practice", "How experience outside formal jobs can gain recognition" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Employers, teachers, professional bodies, and workers agree what evidence shows progress. No machine judgement decides readiness by itself.", "remedyIfItFails": "The learner can inspect and correct the evidence, ask for a new human review, and carry verified learning to another employer or training body.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A paid learning route cannot promise a job for every learner." } ], "nonPromises": [ "A job for every learner", "Every old junior task should survive", "Tracking by itself produces learning" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Practice is unpaid", "whoIsHurt": "Learners who do useful beginner work without wages or worker rights", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Give the learner paid worker or apprentice status, recover unpaid wages, and let them report unsafe work." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Practice records become surveillance", "whoIsHurt": "Learners whose detailed behaviour is tracked far beyond what feedback needs", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Collect only the evidence needed for learning, let the learner inspect and correct it, and delete extra tracking." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Experts block entry unfairly", "whoIsHurt": "Learners without personal contacts, money, or a familiar background", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish clear skill criteria, use more than one reviewer, and provide a human appeal." }, { "harmOrFailure": "There is no path to the next level", "whoIsHurt": "Junior workers who finish training but receive no greater responsibility", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish the paid steps, record feedback from real tasks, and carry that evidence to the next employer or training body." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Accessible tools used in real work. Records of supervised practice that can move with the learner. Safe ways to correct evidence.", "whyNeeded": "The learner must practise in the assisted workflow and carry trustworthy evidence of growing judgement between stages.", "ifMissing": "Without usable records, learners repeat unpaid gates or are judged by hidden machine data.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "SC-WORK-01", "src-ilo-exposure-indicators-2026" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Paid worker or apprentice status. Wage and safety duties. Fair access, privacy, and appeal rights.", "whyNeeded": "The route is meant to be paid. It must not turn learning into unprotected labour or intrusive selection.", "ifMissing": "Without these rights, employers can take useful beginner work without pay, safety duties, fair selection, or remedy.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "SC-WORK-01", "src-ilo-exposure-indicators-2026" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Skilled supervisors, safe workplaces, time, and tools for real tasks.", "whyNeeded": "Judgement grows through supervised work where real consequences and unusual cases occur.", "ifMissing": "Without real practice, the route becomes a paper exercise and does not produce a safe, experienced worker.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "SC-WORK-01", "src-ilo-exposure-indicators-2026" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-lived-03", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "School leavers, graduates, career changers, apprentices and junior workers", "triggerOrContext": "Machine help may remove or shrink first-draft tasks. Employers still need people who can review work, handle unusual cases, and answer for harm.", "plainJob": "Give me real paid work where I can practise, get feedback, prove what I can do and take on more responsibility.", "observableCompletion": "The learner completes real tasks with a skilled guide and gets recorded feedback. They show they can make sound choices with less help. They can move to the next level without an unpaid gate.", "repeatedDemand": "Each new cohort, role change and technology update creates another learning and progression cycle.", "why2031Not2026": "Job exposure is clear in 2026. A broad collapse in entry jobs has not been seen, and the effect on apprentices is not well measured. In W01, entry routes must change as machine help becomes normal.", "worldIds": [ "W01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "SC-WORK-01", "src-ilo-exposure-indicators-2026" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter wherever first-draft work shrinks but employers still need skilled reviewers. The assigned evidence does not show where paid entry routes will be rebuilt." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Pay rules, training routes, internet access, and access to skilled supervisors vary by job and place." ], "unknowns": [ "Which entry tasks teach judgement rather than busywork", "Whether employers will pay for supervised practice", "How experience outside formal jobs can gain recognition" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Employers, teachers, professional bodies, and workers agree what evidence shows progress. No machine judgement decides readiness by itself.", "remedyIfItFails": "The learner can inspect and correct the evidence, ask for a new human review, and carry verified learning to another employer or training body.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A paid learning route cannot promise a job for every learner." }, "nonPromises": [ "A job for every learner", "Every old junior task should survive", "Tracking by itself produces learning" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Practice is unpaid", "whoIsHurt": "Learners who do useful beginner work without wages or worker rights", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Give the learner paid worker or apprentice status, recover unpaid wages, and let them report unsafe work." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Practice records become surveillance", "whoIsHurt": "Learners whose detailed behaviour is tracked far beyond what feedback needs", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Collect only the evidence needed for learning, let the learner inspect and correct it, and delete extra tracking." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Experts block entry unfairly", "whoIsHurt": "Learners without personal contacts, money, or a familiar background", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish clear skill criteria, use more than one reviewer, and provide a human appeal." }, { "harmOrFailure": "There is no path to the next level", "whoIsHurt": "Junior workers who finish training but receive no greater responsibility", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish the paid steps, record feedback from real tasks, and carry that evidence to the next employer or training body." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Accessible tools used in real work. Records of supervised practice that can move with the learner. Safe ways to correct evidence.", "whyNeeded": "The learner must practise in the assisted workflow and carry trustworthy evidence of growing judgement between stages.", "ifMissing": "Without usable records, learners repeat unpaid gates or are judged by hidden machine data.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "SC-WORK-01", "src-ilo-exposure-indicators-2026" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Paid worker or apprentice status. Wage and safety duties. Fair access, privacy, and appeal rights.", "whyNeeded": "The route is meant to be paid. It must not turn learning into unprotected labour or intrusive selection.", "ifMissing": "Without these rights, employers can take useful beginner work without pay, safety duties, fair selection, or remedy.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "SC-WORK-01", "src-ilo-exposure-indicators-2026" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Skilled supervisors, safe workplaces, time, and tools for real tasks.", "whyNeeded": "Judgement grows through supervised work where real consequences and unusual cases occur.", "ifMissing": "Without real practice, the route becomes a paper exercise and does not produce a safe, experienced worker.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "SC-WORK-01", "src-ilo-exposure-indicators-2026" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-002", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-lived-04" ], "actorOrPerson": "Employees, contractors and hidden reviewers whose performance is shaped or measured by machine systems", "triggerOrContext": "Employers retain people for review and legal blame but can use help to intensify targets, monitor behaviour or shift risk onto individuals.", "plainJob": "Let me understand how I am being watched, refuse an unsafe handoff of work, and raise a problem without losing income or being blamed for the machine.", "observableCompletion": "The worker can see tracking and target changes that affect the job, pause an unsafe task, record disagreement, reach an outside human reviewer, and receive a decision that does not rely only on the system being challenged.", "repeatedDemand": "Workload, tools, managers, targets and exceptions change continually.", "why2031Not2026": "Measures in 2026 show which jobs face change. They do not show the quality of real jobs or workers' power to bargain. In W01, supervised machine work becomes a daily part of work, so tracking and blame need clear limits.", "worldIds": [ "w01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "SC-WORK-01", "src-ilo-exposure-indicators-2026" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter wherever employers use machines to guide, track, or judge workers. The assigned evidence does not show which workers or places face the greatest risk." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Worker rights, union power, job status, and access to an outside appeal vary by job and legal area." ], "unknowns": [ "Whether machine help improves worker bargaining power or weakens it", "How to record hidden review and emotional work", "Whether a worker can really refuse under insecure work" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Employers may organise work within labour, safety, and privacy law. Workers and their representatives can challenge unsafe or unfair use.", "remedyIfItFails": "Provide a human complaint route and worker representation. Correct performance records and protect workers from punishment for speaking up.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "These protections cannot promise that paid work is always meaningful." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Paid work is always meaningful", "Every form of tracking is harmful", "A right to refuse removes every job risk" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Work pace becomes unsafe", "whoIsHurt": "Workers pushed to handle more tasks or exceptions than they can check safely", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Show workload and target changes, let workers pause unsafe work, and reduce targets after an independent review." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Emotional and review work stays hidden", "whoIsHurt": "Workers who calm users, fix machine errors, or review difficult cases without enough time or pay", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Record this work, include it in staffing and pay, and provide rest after distressing cases." }, { "harmOrFailure": "A machine triggers punishment after a complaint", "whoIsHurt": "Workers who raise a concern and then lose shifts, pay, or work through an automated process", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Block automatic punishment after a complaint, require a separate human review, and restore lost work when the complaint caused unfair treatment." }, { "harmOrFailure": "A worker is blamed without power to refuse", "whoIsHurt": "Workers held responsible for a machine-led action they could not inspect or stop", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Give workers real stop power and access to the record. Keep legal blame with the employer when control was missing." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Clear records of tracking and machine-led decisions that workers can see. A reliable pause control.", "whyNeeded": "Workers can challenge pace, tracking, or an unsafe handoff of work only if they can see how the machine shaped the task and can pause it.", "ifMissing": "Without visibility and a pause, workers cannot prove or stop unsafe use.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "SC-WORK-01", "src-ilo-exposure-indicators-2026" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Clear worker status. Safety and privacy duties. Protected complaints and protection from punishment for speaking up.", "whyNeeded": "A real right to refuse depends on protection from lost pay, dismissal, or punishment after a safety or fairness concern.", "ifMissing": "Without that protection, workers cannot use the pause or complaint route safely.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "SC-WORK-01", "src-ilo-exposure-indicators-2026" ] }, { "dependency": "No specific site or physical asset is required.", "whyNeeded": "This need is about information and power in both digital and hands-on workplaces. It does not depend on one kind of site.", "ifMissing": "Requiring a particular site would add a false barrier without improving worker control.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "SC-WORK-01", "src-ilo-exposure-indicators-2026" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-lived-04", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "Employees, contractors and hidden reviewers whose performance is shaped or measured by machine systems", "triggerOrContext": "Employers retain people for review and legal blame but can use help to intensify targets, monitor behaviour or shift risk onto individuals.", "plainJob": "Let me understand how I am being watched, refuse an unsafe handoff of work, and raise a problem without losing income or being blamed for the machine.", "observableCompletion": "The worker can see tracking and target changes that affect the job, pause an unsafe task, record disagreement, reach an outside human reviewer, and receive a decision that does not rely only on the system being challenged.", "repeatedDemand": "Workload, tools, managers, targets and exceptions change continually.", "why2031Not2026": "Measures in 2026 show which jobs face change. They do not show the quality of real jobs or workers' power to bargain. In W01, supervised machine work becomes a daily part of work, so tracking and blame need clear limits.", "worldIds": [ "W01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "SC-WORK-01", "src-ilo-exposure-indicators-2026" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter wherever employers use machines to guide, track, or judge workers. The assigned evidence does not show which workers or places face the greatest risk." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Worker rights, union power, job status, and access to an outside appeal vary by job and legal area." ], "unknowns": [ "Whether machine help improves worker bargaining power or weakens it", "How to record hidden review and emotional work", "Whether a worker can really refuse under insecure work" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Employers may organise work within labour, safety, and privacy law. Workers and their representatives can challenge unsafe or unfair use.", "remedyIfItFails": "Provide a human complaint route and worker representation. Correct performance records and protect workers from punishment for speaking up.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "These protections cannot promise that paid work is always meaningful." }, "nonPromises": [ "Paid work is always meaningful", "Every form of tracking is harmful", "A right to refuse removes every job risk" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Work pace becomes unsafe", "whoIsHurt": "Workers pushed to handle more tasks or exceptions than they can check safely", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Show workload and target changes, let workers pause unsafe work, and reduce targets after an independent review." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Emotional and review work stays hidden", "whoIsHurt": "Workers who calm users, fix machine errors, or review difficult cases without enough time or pay", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Record this work, include it in staffing and pay, and provide rest after distressing cases." }, { "harmOrFailure": "A machine triggers punishment after a complaint", "whoIsHurt": "Workers who raise a concern and then lose shifts, pay, or work through an automated process", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Block automatic punishment after a complaint, require a separate human review, and restore lost work when the complaint caused unfair treatment." }, { "harmOrFailure": "A worker is blamed without power to refuse", "whoIsHurt": "Workers held responsible for a machine-led action they could not inspect or stop", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Give workers real stop power and access to the record. Keep legal blame with the employer when control was missing." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Clear records of tracking and machine-led decisions that workers can see. A reliable pause control.", "whyNeeded": "Workers can challenge pace, tracking, or an unsafe handoff of work only if they can see how the machine shaped the task and can pause it.", "ifMissing": "Without visibility and a pause, workers cannot prove or stop unsafe use.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "SC-WORK-01", "src-ilo-exposure-indicators-2026" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Clear worker status. Safety and privacy duties. Protected complaints and protection from punishment for speaking up.", "whyNeeded": "A real right to refuse depends on protection from lost pay, dismissal, or punishment after a safety or fairness concern.", "ifMissing": "Without that protection, workers cannot use the pause or complaint route safely.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "SC-WORK-01", "src-ilo-exposure-indicators-2026" ] }, { "dependency": "No specific site or physical asset is required.", "whyNeeded": "This need is about information and power in both digital and hands-on workplaces. It does not depend on one kind of site.", "ifMissing": "Requiring a particular site would add a false barrier without improving worker control.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "SC-WORK-01", "src-ilo-exposure-indicators-2026" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-003", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-lived-05" ], "actorOrPerson": "Workers whose tasks, hours, or employer change while paid work still shapes income and daily life", "triggerOrContext": "Jobs persist but their task mix, supervision, hours and security change unevenly across firms and places.", "plainJob": "Help me move through a work change without a sudden loss of pay, daily structure, accepted skill or contact with people.", "observableCompletion": "The person knows what will change. They keep pay or get short-term support. They have a dated learning or job-move plan. They can keep chosen social and care duties during the change.", "repeatedDemand": "Task redesign, contract changes and employer turnover recur rather than happen once.", "why2031Not2026": "Proof in 2026 shows job exposure and mixed gains, not one clear result for paid work. In W01, routine machine help creates many smaller job changes instead of one clean break.", "worldIds": [ "w01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "EWF-07", "SC-G01", "SC-WORK-01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter wherever a job change can cut pay, daily structure, or contact. The assigned evidence does not show one transition pattern across places." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Income support, training, transport, care duties, and local job options vary by person and place." ], "unknowns": [ "The effect on net wages", "Whether hours shrink or become more intense", "How care duties affect a person's ability to retrain" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Employers may redesign roles, but they must explain major changes and follow labour law and rules for pay and support.", "remedyIfItFails": "Workers can correct records, challenge unfair selection, carry pay and benefit rights, and reach a human adviser during the transition.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "No transition plan can promise permanent paid work." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Permanent paid work", "A job always creates belonging", "Every role can be preserved" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Workers are churned through short, monitored roles", "whoIsHurt": "Workers and families who face repeated moves, unstable hours, and constant tracking", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Give clear notice, bridge pay and benefits, and a dated plan for the next stable role." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Training brings no progress", "whoIsHurt": "Workers who complete courses but receive no new task, pay, or responsibility", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Link training to real paid tasks and a stated next level. Let the worker carry accepted proof elsewhere." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Job figures hide lost routine and contact", "whoIsHurt": "Workers who still appear employed but lose hours, colleagues, or a stable daily pattern", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Track hours, security, contact, and wellbeing as well as job status. Offer support before the role breaks down." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Care duties block the transition", "whoIsHurt": "Carers who cannot attend fixed training, travel, or accept sudden shifts", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Offer flexible paid learning, care support, transport help, and more than one route to the next role." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "No specific technical system is required.", "whyNeeded": "Income, routine, social contact, and recognised skill can continue through human and public support. No particular digital system is essential.", "ifMissing": "Requiring a technical system would add a false barrier to a need that can be met through people and public services.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "EWF-07", "SC-G01", "SC-WORK-01" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Notice of major changes. Pay and benefit rights that move with the worker. Fair selection and correction rights.", "whyNeeded": "Continuity depends on fair treatment backed by law, not only on employer goodwill.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, a person can lose pay or benefits without notice and cannot challenge an unfair transition.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "EWF-07", "SC-G01", "SC-WORK-01" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Accessible training or job-placement settings, transport or remote options, and care cover where needed.", "whyNeeded": "A dated transition plan works only if the person can reach the job, training, or support while meeting care and access needs.", "ifMissing": "Without practical access, the pathway exists on paper but the person cannot attend, practise, or keep essential care duties.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "EWF-07", "SC-G01", "SC-WORK-01" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-lived-05", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "Workers whose tasks, hours, or employer change while paid work still shapes income and daily life", "triggerOrContext": "Jobs persist but their task mix, supervision, hours and security change unevenly across firms and places.", "plainJob": "Help me move through a work change without a sudden loss of pay, daily structure, accepted skill or contact with people.", "observableCompletion": "The person knows what will change. They keep pay or get short-term support. They have a dated learning or job-move plan. They can keep chosen social and care duties during the change.", "repeatedDemand": "Task redesign, contract changes and employer turnover recur rather than happen once.", "why2031Not2026": "Proof in 2026 shows job exposure and mixed gains, not one clear result for paid work. In W01, routine machine help creates many smaller job changes instead of one clean break.", "worldIds": [ "W01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "EWF-07", "SC-G01", "SC-WORK-01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter wherever a job change can cut pay, daily structure, or contact. The assigned evidence does not show one transition pattern across places." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Income support, training, transport, care duties, and local job options vary by person and place." ], "unknowns": [ "The effect on net wages", "Whether hours shrink or become more intense", "How care duties affect a person's ability to retrain" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Employers may redesign roles, but they must explain major changes and follow labour law and rules for pay and support.", "remedyIfItFails": "Workers can correct records, challenge unfair selection, carry pay and benefit rights, and reach a human adviser during the transition.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "No transition plan can promise permanent paid work." }, "nonPromises": [ "Permanent paid work", "A job always creates belonging", "Every role can be preserved" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Workers are churned through short, monitored roles", "whoIsHurt": "Workers and families who face repeated moves, unstable hours, and constant tracking", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Give clear notice, bridge pay and benefits, and a dated plan for the next stable role." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Training brings no progress", "whoIsHurt": "Workers who complete courses but receive no new task, pay, or responsibility", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Link training to real paid tasks and a stated next level. Let the worker carry accepted proof elsewhere." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Job figures hide lost routine and contact", "whoIsHurt": "Workers who still appear employed but lose hours, colleagues, or a stable daily pattern", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Track hours, security, contact, and wellbeing as well as job status. Offer support before the role breaks down." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Care duties block the transition", "whoIsHurt": "Carers who cannot attend fixed training, travel, or accept sudden shifts", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Offer flexible paid learning, care support, transport help, and more than one route to the next role." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "No specific technical system is required.", "whyNeeded": "Income, routine, social contact, and recognised skill can continue through human and public support. No particular digital system is essential.", "ifMissing": "Requiring a technical system would add a false barrier to a need that can be met through people and public services.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "EWF-07", "SC-G01", "SC-WORK-01" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Notice of major changes. Pay and benefit rights that move with the worker. Fair selection and correction rights.", "whyNeeded": "Continuity depends on fair treatment backed by law, not only on employer goodwill.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, a person can lose pay or benefits without notice and cannot challenge an unfair transition.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "EWF-07", "SC-G01", "SC-WORK-01" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Accessible training or job-placement settings, transport or remote options, and care cover where needed.", "whyNeeded": "A dated transition plan works only if the person can reach the job, training, or support while meeting care and access needs.", "ifMissing": "Without practical access, the pathway exists on paper but the person cannot attend, practise, or keep essential care duties.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "EWF-07", "SC-G01", "SC-WORK-01" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-004", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-lived-07" ], "actorOrPerson": "Learners, teachers, employers, and skilled worker groups", "triggerOrContext": "Generated work weakens output-only assessment while W01 still depends on trained people who can understand, check the work and take responsibility.", "plainJob": "Let me learn with help and prove that I understand the work, can spot a problem and can act safely when the answer is wrong.", "observableCompletion": "The learner explains their choices, works in a fresh supervised setting, and responds to an error. A teacher gives feedback. The learner carries accepted proof without exposing private data that is not needed.", "repeatedDemand": "Learning, new review, role progression and tool changes recur across a working life.", "why2031Not2026": "Guidance and early studies show that teaching methods matter. They do not yet prove wide transfer or fair tests. W01 needs trusted proof of learning as machine help becomes normal.", "worldIds": [ "w01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "AC-09", "EWF-04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter wherever generated work is used in learning or assessment. The assigned evidence does not show which places face the greatest learning risk." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Teacher time, language support, device access, and the rules for accepting learning records vary by place." ], "unknowns": [ "Which evidence predicts safe performance later", "How much recording is fair and necessary", "Whether employers accept learning evidence from another organisation" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Teachers and recognised organisations judge learning using several kinds of evidence. No generated judgement is the sole authority.", "remedyIfItFails": "Learners can inspect the evidence, correct errors, request fair adjustments, and obtain a new human review.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Using machine help cannot promise better learning." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Using machine help improves learning", "One learning record is accepted everywhere", "More surveillance makes assessment fair" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Generated answers are mistaken for learning", "whoIsHurt": "Learners who receive credit without being able to explain, check, or safely use the work", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Use a fresh supervised task, ask the learner to explain choices, and include a realistic error to handle." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Learning records expose too much private data", "whoIsHurt": "Learners whose home, disability, behaviour, or draft work is collected without need", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Collect the least data needed, let the learner inspect and correct it, and erase private details after review." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Prestige replaces proof", "whoIsHurt": "Learners from unfamiliar schools, routes, or backgrounds whose real skill is ignored", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Use clear task-based criteria, include an outside reviewer, and allow a human appeal." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Learners without devices are excluded", "whoIsHurt": "Learners who lack a suitable device, stable connection, or accessible software", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Lend equipment, provide an offline and accessible route, and give the same time and recognition." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Accessible assessment tools. A record of how machine help was used. Evidence that can move with the learner. Safe correction controls.", "whyNeeded": "The organisation must separate supported performance from lasting understanding without collecting unnecessary private data.", "ifMissing": "Without that separation, generated work is mistaken for learning or the learning record turns into surveillance.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-09", "EWF-04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Privacy and disability-access duties. Fair adjustments. A new human review and clear recognition rules.", "whyNeeded": "Fair evidence needs limits on tracking and a human route to challenge a hidden or wrong judgement.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, learners can be excluded or permanently misjudged by a process they cannot inspect or appeal.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-09", "EWF-04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Teachers or skilled assessors, fresh supervised practice, relevant tools, and safe conditions.", "whyNeeded": "The learner must show safe judgement in a setting that reveals errors, context, and consequences.", "ifMissing": "Without real or realistic practice, the evidence shows only an answer, not safe performance.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-09", "EWF-04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-lived-07", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "Learners, teachers, employers, and skilled worker groups", "triggerOrContext": "Generated work weakens output-only assessment while W01 still depends on trained people who can understand, check the work and take responsibility.", "plainJob": "Let me learn with help and prove that I understand the work, can spot a problem and can act safely when the answer is wrong.", "observableCompletion": "The learner explains their choices, works in a fresh supervised setting, and responds to an error. A teacher gives feedback. The learner carries accepted proof without exposing private data that is not needed.", "repeatedDemand": "Learning, new review, role progression and tool changes recur across a working life.", "why2031Not2026": "Guidance and early studies show that teaching methods matter. They do not yet prove wide transfer or fair tests. W01 needs trusted proof of learning as machine help becomes normal.", "worldIds": [ "W01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "AC-09", "EWF-04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter wherever generated work is used in learning or assessment. The assigned evidence does not show which places face the greatest learning risk." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Teacher time, language support, device access, and the rules for accepting learning records vary by place." ], "unknowns": [ "Which evidence predicts safe performance later", "How much recording is fair and necessary", "Whether employers accept learning evidence from another organisation" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Teachers and recognised organisations judge learning using several kinds of evidence. No generated judgement is the sole authority.", "remedyIfItFails": "Learners can inspect the evidence, correct errors, request fair adjustments, and obtain a new human review.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Using machine help cannot promise better learning." }, "nonPromises": [ "Using machine help improves learning", "One learning record is accepted everywhere", "More surveillance makes assessment fair" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Generated answers are mistaken for learning", "whoIsHurt": "Learners who receive credit without being able to explain, check, or safely use the work", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Use a fresh supervised task, ask the learner to explain choices, and include a realistic error to handle." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Learning records expose too much private data", "whoIsHurt": "Learners whose home, disability, behaviour, or draft work is collected without need", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Collect the least data needed, let the learner inspect and correct it, and erase private details after review." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Prestige replaces proof", "whoIsHurt": "Learners from unfamiliar schools, routes, or backgrounds whose real skill is ignored", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Use clear task-based criteria, include an outside reviewer, and allow a human appeal." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Learners without devices are excluded", "whoIsHurt": "Learners who lack a suitable device, stable connection, or accessible software", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Lend equipment, provide an offline and accessible route, and give the same time and recognition." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Accessible assessment tools. A record of how machine help was used. Evidence that can move with the learner. Safe correction controls.", "whyNeeded": "The organisation must separate supported performance from lasting understanding without collecting unnecessary private data.", "ifMissing": "Without that separation, generated work is mistaken for learning or the learning record turns into surveillance.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-09", "EWF-04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Privacy and disability-access duties. Fair adjustments. A new human review and clear recognition rules.", "whyNeeded": "Fair evidence needs limits on tracking and a human route to challenge a hidden or wrong judgement.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, learners can be excluded or permanently misjudged by a process they cannot inspect or appeal.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-09", "EWF-04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Teachers or skilled assessors, fresh supervised practice, relevant tools, and safe conditions.", "whyNeeded": "The learner must show safe judgement in a setting that reveals errors, context, and consequences.", "ifMissing": "Without real or realistic practice, the evidence shows only an answer, not safe performance.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-09", "EWF-04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-005", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-lived-10" ], "actorOrPerson": "Disconnected, low-literacy, disabled, informal, rural, displaced and document-poor people", "triggerOrContext": "Assisted work and public services become common. But network access, devices, language, ID records and public service staff remain uneven.", "plainJob": "Let me get the same choice, work opportunity or key help through a person or simple route when I cannot use the main online path.", "observableCompletion": "The person can start and finish through a simple route. They receive the same reason and way to fix an error. They are not punished for lacking a device, stable link, or standard document.", "repeatedDemand": "Network access, disability, migration, records and service outages change across a person's life and across locations.", "why2031Not2026": "Gaps in network access and safety are large in 2026. W01 relies more on machine help while staff, funds, devices, and access to places still vary. Human and offline routes must work just as well.", "worldIds": [ "w01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-05", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "PC-S01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter wherever a digital route blocks people who lack a device, stable connection, standard record, language support, or accessible design. The assigned evidence does not show which places face the greatest barrier." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Network access, disability support, language, staff, and the right to use an offline route vary by service and place." ], "unknowns": [ "Whether the offline route leads to the same outcome", "How local-language quality is checked", "Whether people using alternative identity evidence face unfair fraud claims" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The responsible public body decides eligibility or service duty. A device or private identity provider cannot decide alone.", "remedyIfItFails": "Offer assisted correction, a human appeal, records that can move between routes, and an offline way to finish the task.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "The routes may not always work at the same speed." } ], "nonPromises": [ "The same speed in every setting", "Perfect network access", "All identity checks disappear" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "The offline route gives second-class service", "whoIsHurt": "People who cannot use the main digital route and receive a slower or worse outcome", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Apply the same rules, response times, reasons, and right to a fix to both routes. Publish any gap." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Language errors change the outcome", "whoIsHurt": "People using a minority language or translation support", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Offer a trained human interpreter, show the translated reason, and correct both the decision and source record." }, { "harmOrFailure": "One ID error also stops payment", "whoIsHurt": "People whose identity, service, and payment records fail together", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep the records separate, restore service and payment through a manual route, and repair each record." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Workers outside formal jobs face lower pay without help", "whoIsHurt": "Workers whose tasks are affected by machine tools but who lack formal support or appeal rights", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Provide an assisted human route, enforce wage and fair-treatment rules, and include these workers in support plans." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Accessible, local-language interfaces. Records that work across routes. Safe offline capture and later update.", "whyNeeded": "The assisted, offline, and main digital routes must keep the same case, reason, and correction.", "ifMissing": "Without shared records, manual cases can be lost, downgraded, or separated from the record used for the decision.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-05", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "PC-S01" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Equal access and disability-access duties. Alternative identity evidence. Notice and a human appeal.", "whyNeeded": "People need equal treatment when a device, standard document, or digital route does not fit.", "ifMissing": "Without that right, the alternative route exists in name but gives slower, worse, or unappealable treatment.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-05", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "PC-S01" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Staffed counters or field support, accessible sites and transport, backup power, and communications.", "whyNeeded": "An offline or assisted route must have staff and be easy to reach when the main system fails.", "ifMissing": "Without those resources, the backup is closed or unusable during the event that makes it necessary.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-05", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "PC-S01" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-lived-10", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "Disconnected, low-literacy, disabled, informal, rural, displaced and document-poor people", "triggerOrContext": "Assisted work and public services become common. But network access, devices, language, ID records and public service staff remain uneven.", "plainJob": "Let me get the same choice, work opportunity or key help through a person or simple route when I cannot use the main online path.", "observableCompletion": "The person can start and finish through a simple route. They receive the same reason and way to fix an error. They are not punished for lacking a device, stable link, or standard document.", "repeatedDemand": "Network access, disability, migration, records and service outages change across a person's life and across locations.", "why2031Not2026": "Gaps in network access and safety are large in 2026. W01 relies more on machine help while staff, funds, devices, and access to places still vary. Human and offline routes must work just as well.", "worldIds": [ "W01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-05", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "PC-S01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter wherever a digital route blocks people who lack a device, stable connection, standard record, language support, or accessible design. The assigned evidence does not show which places face the greatest barrier." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Network access, disability support, language, staff, and the right to use an offline route vary by service and place." ], "unknowns": [ "Whether the offline route leads to the same outcome", "How local-language quality is checked", "Whether people using alternative identity evidence face unfair fraud claims" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The responsible public body decides eligibility or service duty. A device or private identity provider cannot decide alone.", "remedyIfItFails": "Offer assisted correction, a human appeal, records that can move between routes, and an offline way to finish the task.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "The routes may not always work at the same speed." }, "nonPromises": [ "The same speed in every setting", "Perfect network access", "All identity checks disappear" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "The offline route gives second-class service", "whoIsHurt": "People who cannot use the main digital route and receive a slower or worse outcome", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Apply the same rules, response times, reasons, and right to a fix to both routes. Publish any gap." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Language errors change the outcome", "whoIsHurt": "People using a minority language or translation support", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Offer a trained human interpreter, show the translated reason, and correct both the decision and source record." }, { "harmOrFailure": "One ID error also stops payment", "whoIsHurt": "People whose identity, service, and payment records fail together", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep the records separate, restore service and payment through a manual route, and repair each record." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Workers outside formal jobs face lower pay without help", "whoIsHurt": "Workers whose tasks are affected by machine tools but who lack formal support or appeal rights", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Provide an assisted human route, enforce wage and fair-treatment rules, and include these workers in support plans." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Accessible, local-language interfaces. Records that work across routes. Safe offline capture and later update.", "whyNeeded": "The assisted, offline, and main digital routes must keep the same case, reason, and correction.", "ifMissing": "Without shared records, manual cases can be lost, downgraded, or separated from the record used for the decision.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-05", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "PC-S01" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Equal access and disability-access duties. Alternative identity evidence. Notice and a human appeal.", "whyNeeded": "People need equal treatment when a device, standard document, or digital route does not fit.", "ifMissing": "Without that right, the alternative route exists in name but gives slower, worse, or unappealable treatment.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-05", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "PC-S01" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Staffed counters or field support, accessible sites and transport, backup power, and communications.", "whyNeeded": "An offline or assisted route must have staff and be easy to reach when the main system fails.", "ifMissing": "Without those resources, the backup is closed or unusable during the event that makes it necessary.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-05", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "PC-S01" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-006", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-lived-11" ], "actorOrPerson": "People who feel lonely, have little contact, live alone, have mental illness, or seek a local group", "triggerOrContext": "Paid work remains common but does not promise a sense of place. Cheap computer-made attention may help someone take a first step, or it may replace two-way contact.", "plainJob": "Help me name what I actually need and, if I choose machine support, use it to reach suitable people, groups or care without trapping me there.", "observableCompletion": "The route treats loneliness, isolation, home life, and mental illness as different needs. The person chooses the goal. Real contact or care happens when wanted. Saved records and exit controls work. Harmful dependence or lost offline contact is noticed.", "repeatedDemand": "Connection changes after work shifts, illness, migration, bereavement, conflict and relationship change.", "why2031Not2026": "Studies of digital support in 2026 are short, mixed, and not global. In W01, these tools remain a bridge. Benefit must be shown through real human contact and taking part.", "worldIds": [ "w01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-G01", "SC-G02", "SC-G05", "SC-WORK-01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter wherever people seek support for loneliness, isolation, or mental illness. The assigned evidence does not show one social pattern that fits every place." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Family life, language, health services, local groups, and attitudes to machine support vary by person and place." ], "unknowns": [ "The long-term cause and effect of using digital support", "Which people benefit and which become dependent", "Whether a staffed local group or care service is ready to receive people" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The person chooses whether to use the tool and what it remembers. Trained health and care services keep their clinical and patient-safety duties.", "remedyIfItFails": "Let the person inspect and erase saved data, leave normally, report pressure, and stop prompts to return. Offer trained crisis help and a human alternative.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "The tool cannot promise lasting friendship." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Lasting friendship", "A sense of belonging", "Clinical treatment", "Living alone always means a problem", "Paid work protects mental health" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "A digital tool replaces needed staff", "whoIsHurt": "People seeking mental-health, social, or practical support and the staff who serve them", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish staff levels and successful handoffs, keep a human route, and restore staff when the tool becomes a substitute." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Saved data cannot be moved or erased", "whoIsHurt": "People whose private conversations remain trapped with one provider", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Let the person inspect, export, and erase saved data through a simple route, with a human fix when it fails." }, { "harmOrFailure": "The tool applies hidden pressure", "whoIsHurt": "Children, lonely people, and people in distress who may be easier to influence", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Disclose prompts and paid influence, let users stop return messages, and provide a complaint and outside review." }, { "harmOrFailure": "The crisis handoff fails", "whoIsHurt": "People in crisis who need trained human care", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Send crisis signs to trained staff, test response times, and keep phone and in-person backups." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Contact volume is mistaken for belonging", "whoIsHurt": "People who use the tool often but remain isolated or unsupported", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Ask whether wanted human contact and care improved. Do not treat time in the tool as proof of belonging." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: User control of saved data. Clear privacy choices and ordinary exit. Reliable routing to a human.", "whyNeeded": "A chosen bridge requires control of saved data and a working route to the person or service beyond the tool.", "ifMissing": "Without those controls, the tool can become a captive substitute or fail when real help is needed.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-G01", "SC-G02", "SC-G05", "SC-WORK-01" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Data rights and rules against unfair pressure. Child and crisis protections. Continuing public-service duties.", "whyNeeded": "People at greater risk need legal limits and a responsible organisation when privacy, saved data, or crisis handling fails.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, the person may identify harm but cannot stop return prompts, reach care, or correct the record.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-G01", "SC-G02", "SC-G05", "SC-WORK-01" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Available people and groups, accessible transport and public places, and staffed care when needed.", "whyNeeded": "The bridge is complete only when the person reaches real human participation or care.", "ifMissing": "Without reachable people or services, the tool offers referral words but no real destination.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-G01", "SC-G02", "SC-G05", "SC-WORK-01" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-lived-11", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "People who feel lonely, have little contact, live alone, have mental illness, or seek a local group", "triggerOrContext": "Paid work remains common but does not promise a sense of place. Cheap computer-made attention may help someone take a first step, or it may replace two-way contact.", "plainJob": "Help me name what I actually need and, if I choose machine support, use it to reach suitable people, groups or care without trapping me there.", "observableCompletion": "The route treats loneliness, isolation, home life, and mental illness as different needs. The person chooses the goal. Real contact or care happens when wanted. Saved records and exit controls work. Harmful dependence or lost offline contact is noticed.", "repeatedDemand": "Connection changes after work shifts, illness, migration, bereavement, conflict and relationship change.", "why2031Not2026": "Studies of digital support in 2026 are short, mixed, and not global. In W01, these tools remain a bridge. Benefit must be shown through real human contact and taking part.", "worldIds": [ "W01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-G01", "SC-G02", "SC-G05", "SC-WORK-01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter wherever people seek support for loneliness, isolation, or mental illness. The assigned evidence does not show one social pattern that fits every place." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Family life, language, health services, local groups, and attitudes to machine support vary by person and place." ], "unknowns": [ "The long-term cause and effect of using digital support", "Which people benefit and which become dependent", "Whether a staffed local group or care service is ready to receive people" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The person chooses whether to use the tool and what it remembers. Trained health and care services keep their clinical and patient-safety duties.", "remedyIfItFails": "Let the person inspect and erase saved data, leave normally, report pressure, and stop prompts to return. Offer trained crisis help and a human alternative.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "The tool cannot promise lasting friendship." }, "nonPromises": [ "Lasting friendship", "A sense of belonging", "Clinical treatment", "Living alone always means a problem", "Paid work protects mental health" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "A digital tool replaces needed staff", "whoIsHurt": "People seeking mental-health, social, or practical support and the staff who serve them", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish staff levels and successful handoffs, keep a human route, and restore staff when the tool becomes a substitute." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Saved data cannot be moved or erased", "whoIsHurt": "People whose private conversations remain trapped with one provider", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Let the person inspect, export, and erase saved data through a simple route, with a human fix when it fails." }, { "harmOrFailure": "The tool applies hidden pressure", "whoIsHurt": "Children, lonely people, and people in distress who may be easier to influence", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Disclose prompts and paid influence, let users stop return messages, and provide a complaint and outside review." }, { "harmOrFailure": "The crisis handoff fails", "whoIsHurt": "People in crisis who need trained human care", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Send crisis signs to trained staff, test response times, and keep phone and in-person backups." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Contact volume is mistaken for belonging", "whoIsHurt": "People who use the tool often but remain isolated or unsupported", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Ask whether wanted human contact and care improved. Do not treat time in the tool as proof of belonging." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: User control of saved data. Clear privacy choices and ordinary exit. Reliable routing to a human.", "whyNeeded": "A chosen bridge requires control of saved data and a working route to the person or service beyond the tool.", "ifMissing": "Without those controls, the tool can become a captive substitute or fail when real help is needed.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-G01", "SC-G02", "SC-G05", "SC-WORK-01" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Data rights and rules against unfair pressure. Child and crisis protections. Continuing public-service duties.", "whyNeeded": "People at greater risk need legal limits and a responsible organisation when privacy, saved data, or crisis handling fails.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, the person may identify harm but cannot stop return prompts, reach care, or correct the record.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-G01", "SC-G02", "SC-G05", "SC-WORK-01" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Available people and groups, accessible transport and public places, and staffed care when needed.", "whyNeeded": "The bridge is complete only when the person reaches real human participation or care.", "ifMissing": "Without reachable people or services, the tool offers referral words but no real destination.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-G01", "SC-G02", "SC-G05", "SC-WORK-01" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-007", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-lived-14" ], "actorOrPerson": "People whose paid knowledge income falls, such as carers, workers outside formal jobs, migrants, disabled people, and people between roles", "triggerOrContext": "In W02, paid knowledge work may no longer give families steady income. Income from owned assets or public support must keep buying power and demand from falling.", "plainJob": "Pay me enough to meet real costs, keep it when I move or change status, explain any change and let a person fix mistakes quickly.", "observableCompletion": "The person can join through a simple route and see how the payment was worked out. They can meet normal living costs without forced work. Support follows a move or life change. A human fixes errors before lasting harm.", "repeatedDemand": "Living costs, family life, disability, care duties, moves, rights, and records keep changing.", "why2031Not2026": "Many people lack enough support in 2026, and fast payment does not prove that support is enough. W02 needs a new income route after a possible work break.", "worldIds": [ "w02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter wherever paid knowledge work no longer gives families steady income. The assigned evidence shows gaps in support, but not one regional path after a work break." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Living costs, public funds, payment systems, identity rules, and access to housing and services vary by person and place." ], "unknowns": [ "How much support remains enough after housing and climate costs", "How rights and records would move between countries", "Whether people with informal or missing documents can enrol safely" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Public law defines the right and what level of support is enough. Employers, civic groups, and private identity providers do not control lawful access to income.", "remedyIfItFails": "Give notice and a clear explanation. Offer assisted and offline access, a human correction, emergency continuity, and an outside appeal.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Income alone cannot promise belonging or a valued role." } ], "nonPromises": [ "A sense of belonging", "A valued role", "Political trust", "Income alone fixes demand in every place" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "The payment is exact but still too low", "whoIsHurt": "People whose payment follows the formula but does not cover normal living costs", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish the formula and cost measure, adjust the amount quickly, and cover urgent shortfalls during review." }, { "harmOrFailure": "An automated sanction stops support", "whoIsHurt": "People whose income is cut by a machine-led error or hidden rule", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Require human review before a cut, give the full reason, and restore payment from the date of the error." }, { "harmOrFailure": "An identity error blocks support", "whoIsHurt": "People with missing, changed, or informal records", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Accept other proof, provide a document-light human route, and correct the identity and payment records." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Support depends on a forced task", "whoIsHurt": "Disabled people, carers, and others who cannot or do not choose the required activity", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep income separate from participation, protect the right to say no, and provide a human appeal." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Payment arrives but housing or services do not", "whoIsHurt": "Families who have cash but cannot reach an affordable home, care, energy, or transport", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Track real access and unpaid bills, link income plans to local services, and fund the missing delivery." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Accessible enrolment and payment routes. Case and eligibility records that can move with the person. Human correction and an outage backup.", "whyNeeded": "Regular income must follow the person, arrive reliably, and keep an inspectable case when status or records change.", "ifMissing": "Without this, payments can stop, duplicate, or follow an old status while the person cannot prove or correct the right.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: A right to enough support. Fair process and record transfer. A right to refuse unrelated tasks and seek an outside appeal.", "whyNeeded": "Support must be a correctable legal right, not a payment that officials can remove because of an unrelated task.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, income can be too low, tied to forced tasks, or removed without a timely explanation and correction.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Usable payment or cash access. Available housing, food, energy, transport, and staffed backup.", "whyNeeded": "Income preserves buying power only when people can receive it and buy basic needs where they live.", "ifMissing": "Without supply and backup, an adequate payment on paper may not secure basic needs.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-lived-14", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "People whose paid knowledge income falls, such as carers, workers outside formal jobs, migrants, disabled people, and people between roles", "triggerOrContext": "In W02, paid knowledge work may no longer give families steady income. Income from owned assets or public support must keep buying power and demand from falling.", "plainJob": "Pay me enough to meet real costs, keep it when I move or change status, explain any change and let a person fix mistakes quickly.", "observableCompletion": "The person can join through a simple route and see how the payment was worked out. They can meet normal living costs without forced work. Support follows a move or life change. A human fixes errors before lasting harm.", "repeatedDemand": "Living costs, family life, disability, care duties, moves, rights, and records keep changing.", "why2031Not2026": "Many people lack enough support in 2026, and fast payment does not prove that support is enough. W02 needs a new income route after a possible work break.", "worldIds": [ "W02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter wherever paid knowledge work no longer gives families steady income. The assigned evidence shows gaps in support, but not one regional path after a work break." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Living costs, public funds, payment systems, identity rules, and access to housing and services vary by person and place." ], "unknowns": [ "How much support remains enough after housing and climate costs", "How rights and records would move between countries", "Whether people with informal or missing documents can enrol safely" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Public law defines the right and what level of support is enough. Employers, civic groups, and private identity providers do not control lawful access to income.", "remedyIfItFails": "Give notice and a clear explanation. Offer assisted and offline access, a human correction, emergency continuity, and an outside appeal.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Income alone cannot promise belonging or a valued role." }, "nonPromises": [ "A sense of belonging", "A valued role", "Political trust", "Income alone fixes demand in every place" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "The payment is exact but still too low", "whoIsHurt": "People whose payment follows the formula but does not cover normal living costs", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish the formula and cost measure, adjust the amount quickly, and cover urgent shortfalls during review." }, { "harmOrFailure": "An automated sanction stops support", "whoIsHurt": "People whose income is cut by a machine-led error or hidden rule", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Require human review before a cut, give the full reason, and restore payment from the date of the error." }, { "harmOrFailure": "An identity error blocks support", "whoIsHurt": "People with missing, changed, or informal records", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Accept other proof, provide a document-light human route, and correct the identity and payment records." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Support depends on a forced task", "whoIsHurt": "Disabled people, carers, and others who cannot or do not choose the required activity", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep income separate from participation, protect the right to say no, and provide a human appeal." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Payment arrives but housing or services do not", "whoIsHurt": "Families who have cash but cannot reach an affordable home, care, energy, or transport", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Track real access and unpaid bills, link income plans to local services, and fund the missing delivery." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Accessible enrolment and payment routes. Case and eligibility records that can move with the person. Human correction and an outage backup.", "whyNeeded": "Regular income must follow the person, arrive reliably, and keep an inspectable case when status or records change.", "ifMissing": "Without this, payments can stop, duplicate, or follow an old status while the person cannot prove or correct the right.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: A right to enough support. Fair process and record transfer. A right to refuse unrelated tasks and seek an outside appeal.", "whyNeeded": "Support must be a correctable legal right, not a payment that officials can remove because of an unrelated task.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, income can be too low, tied to forced tasks, or removed without a timely explanation and correction.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Usable payment or cash access. Available housing, food, energy, transport, and staffed backup.", "whyNeeded": "Income preserves buying power only when people can receive it and buy basic needs where they live.", "ifMissing": "Without supply and backup, an adequate payment on paper may not secure basic needs.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-008", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-lived-16" ], "actorOrPerson": "People with less paid work, including carers, makers, learners, neighbours, stewards and people with changing ability", "triggerOrContext": "Paid work no longer supplies the main public role. But people still seek to help, learn, make, care or serve without being forced into one approved pattern.", "plainJob": "Help me find something useful I choose to do, make clear who it helps, and let other people recognise the useful work without turning it into a condition for income.", "observableCompletion": "The person chooses among real roles and understands the duties and support. The receiving group confirms who benefits. A record of the work can be used elsewhere when useful. Refusing does not remove income or rights.", "repeatedDemand": "Health, time, interests, care duties, local needs and group membership change throughout life.", "why2031Not2026": "The assigned proof does not show a group that can reliably give people useful work, status, routine, and a sense of place outside paid jobs. W02 makes this missing social role a central need.", "worldIds": [ "w02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "SC-G08" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter wherever people seek useful roles outside paid jobs. The assigned evidence does not show one model that works in every place." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Local groups, disability access, care duties, public funding, and rules on unpaid work vary by person and place." ], "unknowns": [ "Which roles create lasting two-way value", "How informal work and private care gain recognition", "How to prevent status ladders and unfair exclusion" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Receiving communities and responsible public bodies define the real work they can support. The person chooses whether to take part and keeps the legal right not to take part.", "remedyIfItFails": "Let the person correct a false record, leave a role, report exploitation, request access support, and obtain human review of recognition decisions.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A useful role cannot promise belonging, friendship, equal status, or a paid job." } ], "nonPromises": [ "A sense of belonging", "Lasting friendship", "Equal status", "A paid job", "Every task serves a public need" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "People are pushed into make-work", "whoIsHurt": "People who rely on income or services and feel forced to accept an empty role", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep participation voluntary, protect income and services after refusal, and offer other real roles." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Popularity is mistaken for useful work", "whoIsHurt": "Quiet or less-connected people whose valuable work receives little public attention", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Ask the receiving person or group to confirm the benefit, use clear criteria, and allow review." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Unpaid work replaces paid staff", "whoIsHurt": "Workers who lose paid roles and service users who lose trained support", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish staffing levels, review whether the role should be paid, and restore staff or wages when replacement occurs." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Disabled people and carers cannot take part", "whoIsHurt": "People who need flexible time, access support, transport, or a different kind of role", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Offer accessible places, remote or local options, practical support, and the same public recognition." }, { "harmOrFailure": "One civic identity is forced on every role", "whoIsHurt": "People who need different boundaries for family, care, faith, work, and civic life", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep role records separate, let people leave or change groups, and do not tie all rights to one profile." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "No specific technical system is required.", "whyNeeded": "People and groups can arrange and recognise useful two-way work without a technical system.", "ifMissing": "Requiring a technical system would shut out some people without making the work more useful.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "SC-G08" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: A legal right not to take part. Safety and protection from unfair treatment. Protection from forced or disguised unpaid work.", "whyNeeded": "The route must remain voluntary. It cannot become a condition for income or a way to replace protected paid work.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, useful work can become forced make-work, exploitative unpaid labour, or a gate to basic rights.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "SC-G08" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Accessible roles and host organisations, people, places, transport, suitable equipment, and support.", "whyNeeded": "Two-way value requires a real receiving person or group and a task that the participant can access.", "ifMissing": "Without those resources, only well-connected or able people can take part, or the recorded task helps no one.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "SC-G08" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-lived-16", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "People with less paid work, including carers, makers, learners, neighbours, stewards and people with changing ability", "triggerOrContext": "Paid work no longer supplies the main public role. But people still seek to help, learn, make, care or serve without being forced into one approved pattern.", "plainJob": "Help me find something useful I choose to do, make clear who it helps, and let other people recognise the useful work without turning it into a condition for income.", "observableCompletion": "The person chooses among real roles and understands the duties and support. The receiving group confirms who benefits. A record of the work can be used elsewhere when useful. Refusing does not remove income or rights.", "repeatedDemand": "Health, time, interests, care duties, local needs and group membership change throughout life.", "why2031Not2026": "The assigned proof does not show a group that can reliably give people useful work, status, routine, and a sense of place outside paid jobs. W02 makes this missing social role a central need.", "worldIds": [ "W02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "SC-G08" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter wherever people seek useful roles outside paid jobs. The assigned evidence does not show one model that works in every place." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Local groups, disability access, care duties, public funding, and rules on unpaid work vary by person and place." ], "unknowns": [ "Which roles create lasting two-way value", "How informal work and private care gain recognition", "How to prevent status ladders and unfair exclusion" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Receiving communities and responsible public bodies define the real work they can support. The person chooses whether to take part and keeps the legal right not to take part.", "remedyIfItFails": "Let the person correct a false record, leave a role, report exploitation, request access support, and obtain human review of recognition decisions.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A useful role cannot promise belonging, friendship, equal status, or a paid job." }, "nonPromises": [ "A sense of belonging", "Lasting friendship", "Equal status", "A paid job", "Every task serves a public need" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "People are pushed into make-work", "whoIsHurt": "People who rely on income or services and feel forced to accept an empty role", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep participation voluntary, protect income and services after refusal, and offer other real roles." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Popularity is mistaken for useful work", "whoIsHurt": "Quiet or less-connected people whose valuable work receives little public attention", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Ask the receiving person or group to confirm the benefit, use clear criteria, and allow review." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Unpaid work replaces paid staff", "whoIsHurt": "Workers who lose paid roles and service users who lose trained support", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish staffing levels, review whether the role should be paid, and restore staff or wages when replacement occurs." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Disabled people and carers cannot take part", "whoIsHurt": "People who need flexible time, access support, transport, or a different kind of role", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Offer accessible places, remote or local options, practical support, and the same public recognition." }, { "harmOrFailure": "One civic identity is forced on every role", "whoIsHurt": "People who need different boundaries for family, care, faith, work, and civic life", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep role records separate, let people leave or change groups, and do not tie all rights to one profile." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "No specific technical system is required.", "whyNeeded": "People and groups can arrange and recognise useful two-way work without a technical system.", "ifMissing": "Requiring a technical system would shut out some people without making the work more useful.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "SC-G08" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: A legal right not to take part. Safety and protection from unfair treatment. Protection from forced or disguised unpaid work.", "whyNeeded": "The route must remain voluntary. It cannot become a condition for income or a way to replace protected paid work.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, useful work can become forced make-work, exploitative unpaid labour, or a gate to basic rights.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "SC-G08" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Accessible roles and host organisations, people, places, transport, suitable equipment, and support.", "whyNeeded": "Two-way value requires a real receiving person or group and a task that the participant can access.", "ifMissing": "Without those resources, only well-connected or able people can take part, or the recorded task helps no one.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "SC-G08" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-009", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-lived-17" ], "actorOrPerson": "People whose work hours disappear or become irregular, including those with care duties, illness or limited mobility", "triggerOrContext": "Income may continue outside paid work. But the timetable, shared obligations and transitions once supplied by work no longer organise daily life.", "plainJob": "Help me shape a week with useful duties, people I expect to see, care, and rest. Let me change it when my life changes.", "observableCompletion": "The person can set and change a weekly rhythm with chosen tasks, two-way help, and rest. They can ask for reminders or access help. Illness, care duties, or choosing not to take part bring no punishment.", "repeatedDemand": "Health, home life, seasons, care duties, local events and useful roles keep changing how a person needs to plan and use their time.", "why2031Not2026": "Paid work still sets the daily rhythm for many people in 2026. Proof about meaning apart from income is thin. W02 makes a chosen weekly rhythm a common repeated need.", "worldIds": [ "w02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "SC-WORK-01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter for people who lose the daily rhythm once provided by paid work. The assigned evidence does not show one timetable that suits every person or place." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Health, care duties, local travel, safe meeting places, and access to chosen groups vary by person and place." ], "unknowns": [ "Whether less paid work gives people more control or fragments their time", "Who takes on the work of coordinating schedules and groups", "Which forms of support can survive in places with fewer public funds" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The person controls their schedule. Groups may offer commitments, but they cannot make one timetable a condition of basic income or public status.", "remedyIfItFails": "Allow an easy pause or exit, fair changes, correction of attendance records, and human help with repeated access barriers.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A weekly plan cannot promise a meaningful life or belonging." } ], "nonPromises": [ "A meaningful life", "A sense of belonging", "More useful activity", "More scheduled activity is always better" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "The schedule becomes compulsory", "whoIsHurt": "People with illness, care duties, or changing energy who cannot follow a fixed week", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Let the person change or pause the plan without losing income, services, or status." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Planning creates too much admin", "whoIsHurt": "People who spend more time reporting and scheduling than doing useful or restorative activity", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep the plan simple, make reminders optional, and offer a human helper when wanted." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Care or disability is treated as failure", "whoIsHurt": "Carers and disabled people whose changed plans are marked as poor effort", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Treat care and health changes as valid reasons to reset the plan. Remove penalties and correct the record." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Computer-made tasks fill time while human contact falls", "whoIsHurt": "People who stay busy online but lose real relationships and local support", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Track wanted human contact, fund accessible groups and places, and reduce tool prompts when offline contact falls." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "No specific technical system is required.", "whyNeeded": "A chosen weekly rhythm can grow from ordinary human commitments. Reminders may help, but no digital system is essential.", "ifMissing": "Requiring a technical system would add a false barrier to a need that people can meet through human commitments.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "SC-WORK-01" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Basic income that does not depend on attendance. Freedom to pause or leave. Disability access and fair changes.", "whyNeeded": "The rhythm is truly chosen only if illness, care, disability, or refusal does not remove income or rights.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, the timetable becomes compulsory and punishes people whose health or available time changes.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "SC-WORK-01" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Reachable people and activities, accessible public or community places, transport, and care support.", "whyNeeded": "Repeated commitments and human contact need usable places, people, and access near the person.", "ifMissing": "Without those resources, the schedule exists only on paper and time stays fragmented or filled only by computer-made contact.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "SC-WORK-01" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-lived-17", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "People whose work hours disappear or become irregular, including those with care duties, illness or limited mobility", "triggerOrContext": "Income may continue outside paid work. But the timetable, shared obligations and transitions once supplied by work no longer organise daily life.", "plainJob": "Help me shape a week with useful duties, people I expect to see, care, and rest. Let me change it when my life changes.", "observableCompletion": "The person can set and change a weekly rhythm with chosen tasks, two-way help, and rest. They can ask for reminders or access help. Illness, care duties, or choosing not to take part bring no punishment.", "repeatedDemand": "Health, home life, seasons, care duties, local events and useful roles keep changing how a person needs to plan and use their time.", "why2031Not2026": "Paid work still sets the daily rhythm for many people in 2026. Proof about meaning apart from income is thin. W02 makes a chosen weekly rhythm a common repeated need.", "worldIds": [ "W02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "SC-WORK-01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter for people who lose the daily rhythm once provided by paid work. The assigned evidence does not show one timetable that suits every person or place." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Health, care duties, local travel, safe meeting places, and access to chosen groups vary by person and place." ], "unknowns": [ "Whether less paid work gives people more control or fragments their time", "Who takes on the work of coordinating schedules and groups", "Which forms of support can survive in places with fewer public funds" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The person controls their schedule. Groups may offer commitments, but they cannot make one timetable a condition of basic income or public status.", "remedyIfItFails": "Allow an easy pause or exit, fair changes, correction of attendance records, and human help with repeated access barriers.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A weekly plan cannot promise a meaningful life or belonging." }, "nonPromises": [ "A meaningful life", "A sense of belonging", "More useful activity", "More scheduled activity is always better" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "The schedule becomes compulsory", "whoIsHurt": "People with illness, care duties, or changing energy who cannot follow a fixed week", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Let the person change or pause the plan without losing income, services, or status." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Planning creates too much admin", "whoIsHurt": "People who spend more time reporting and scheduling than doing useful or restorative activity", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep the plan simple, make reminders optional, and offer a human helper when wanted." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Care or disability is treated as failure", "whoIsHurt": "Carers and disabled people whose changed plans are marked as poor effort", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Treat care and health changes as valid reasons to reset the plan. Remove penalties and correct the record." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Computer-made tasks fill time while human contact falls", "whoIsHurt": "People who stay busy online but lose real relationships and local support", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Track wanted human contact, fund accessible groups and places, and reduce tool prompts when offline contact falls." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "No specific technical system is required.", "whyNeeded": "A chosen weekly rhythm can grow from ordinary human commitments. Reminders may help, but no digital system is essential.", "ifMissing": "Requiring a technical system would add a false barrier to a need that people can meet through human commitments.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "SC-WORK-01" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Basic income that does not depend on attendance. Freedom to pause or leave. Disability access and fair changes.", "whyNeeded": "The rhythm is truly chosen only if illness, care, disability, or refusal does not remove income or rights.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, the timetable becomes compulsory and punishes people whose health or available time changes.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "SC-WORK-01" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Reachable people and activities, accessible public or community places, transport, and care support.", "whyNeeded": "Repeated commitments and human contact need usable places, people, and access near the person.", "ifMissing": "Without those resources, the schedule exists only on paper and time stays fragmented or filled only by computer-made contact.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "SC-WORK-01" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-010", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-lived-18" ], "actorOrPerson": "People seeking acceptance, mutual help and a valued place after paid work loses its social role", "triggerOrContext": "Enough income and free time do not by themselves give acceptance, trust, two-way help, or a lasting role in a real group.", "plainJob": "Help me take part with real people often enough to be known, help and be helped, while keeping the freedom to leave or join a different group.", "observableCompletion": "Over time, the person feels accepted and able to help. Two-way help occurs. Taking part stays a choice. The group does not shut out outsiders or require computer-made contact.", "repeatedDemand": "A sense of place needs repeated contact. It can change after a move, conflict, a life change, or turnover in the group.", "why2031Not2026": "Global proof does not identify one form that reliably creates feeling included, and online contact proof is mixed. W02 requires a credible post-work social plan rather than assuming attendance is enough.", "worldIds": [ "w02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23", "SC-G01", "SC-G02", "SC-G07", "SC-G08", "src-who-social-connection-2025" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter wherever people seek acceptance and two-way help outside paid work. The assigned evidence does not support one cultural or regional model of belonging." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Language, family life, local groups, safe meeting places, transport, and freedom to leave vary by person and place." ], "unknowns": [ "Which group rules keep membership open and two-way", "How people understand belonging across cultures", "Whether recognised useful work connects social groups or makes them more closed" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Groups may set membership rules, but they must respect safety, fair access, and the freedom to leave. No public body, employer, or machine record can decide that a person belongs.", "remedyIfItFails": "A person can report exclusion or harm, leave without losing income or identity papers, and seek an outside review under safety or fair-access law.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "No group can promise friendship on demand or uniform trust." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Friendship on demand", "The same trust in every group", "Treatment for mental illness", "More contacts always reduce loneliness" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Attendance is mistaken for belonging", "whoIsHurt": "People who attend often but are not accepted, known, or able to help", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Ask about trust, two-way help, and chosen return. Do not use sign-ins as proof of belonging." }, { "harmOrFailure": "The group shuts out outsiders", "whoIsHurt": "Newcomers and minority members who cannot enter or influence the group", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish fair entry rules, offer a complaint route, and support more than one group so exit remains real." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Status games crowd out mutual help", "whoIsHurt": "Quiet members and people with less money, time, or public visibility", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Rotate valued roles, limit public status signals, and judge the group by two-way help rather than popularity." }, { "harmOrFailure": "People are pressured to take part", "whoIsHurt": "People who fear losing income, services, or status if they leave", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep income and key rights separate, protect the right to leave, and provide an outside appeal." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Outsiders are treated as lesser people", "whoIsHurt": "People outside the group who face hostility or unfair treatment", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Enforce fair-treatment rules, protect safe exit and reporting, and stop public bodies from rewarding exclusion." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "No specific technical system is required.", "whyNeeded": "Belonging comes from two-way human acceptance and participation. No technical system can create or certify it by itself.", "ifMissing": "Requiring a technical system would block some people and would not create a real group.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23", "SC-G01", "SC-G02", "SC-G07", "SC-G08", "src-who-social-connection-2025" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Safety and protection from unfair treatment. Freedom to join, leave, or form a group. No loss of income or identity papers for leaving.", "whyNeeded": "People need protection from abuse and force while groups keep freedom to organise themselves.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, a group can exclude, trap, or harm people while participation is tied to basic rights.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23", "SC-G01", "SC-G02", "SC-G07", "SC-G08", "src-who-social-connection-2025" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Real people, repeated shared activity, accessible meeting places, transport, time, and participation support.", "whyNeeded": "Belonging grows through repeated two-way presence and action, not attendance data or computer-made contact alone.", "ifMissing": "Without reachable people and places, a programme records contact but creates no lasting human group.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23", "SC-G01", "SC-G02", "SC-G07", "SC-G08", "src-who-social-connection-2025" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-lived-18", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "People seeking acceptance, mutual help and a valued place after paid work loses its social role", "triggerOrContext": "Enough income and free time do not by themselves give acceptance, trust, two-way help, or a lasting role in a real group.", "plainJob": "Help me take part with real people often enough to be known, help and be helped, while keeping the freedom to leave or join a different group.", "observableCompletion": "Over time, the person feels accepted and able to help. Two-way help occurs. Taking part stays a choice. The group does not shut out outsiders or require computer-made contact.", "repeatedDemand": "A sense of place needs repeated contact. It can change after a move, conflict, a life change, or turnover in the group.", "why2031Not2026": "Global proof does not identify one form that reliably creates feeling included, and online contact proof is mixed. W02 requires a credible post-work social plan rather than assuming attendance is enough.", "worldIds": [ "W02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23", "SC-G01", "SC-G02", "SC-G07", "SC-G08", "src-who-social-connection-2025" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter wherever people seek acceptance and two-way help outside paid work. The assigned evidence does not support one cultural or regional model of belonging." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Language, family life, local groups, safe meeting places, transport, and freedom to leave vary by person and place." ], "unknowns": [ "Which group rules keep membership open and two-way", "How people understand belonging across cultures", "Whether recognised useful work connects social groups or makes them more closed" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Groups may set membership rules, but they must respect safety, fair access, and the freedom to leave. No public body, employer, or machine record can decide that a person belongs.", "remedyIfItFails": "A person can report exclusion or harm, leave without losing income or identity papers, and seek an outside review under safety or fair-access law.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "No group can promise friendship on demand or uniform trust." }, "nonPromises": [ "Friendship on demand", "The same trust in every group", "Treatment for mental illness", "More contacts always reduce loneliness" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Attendance is mistaken for belonging", "whoIsHurt": "People who attend often but are not accepted, known, or able to help", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Ask about trust, two-way help, and chosen return. Do not use sign-ins as proof of belonging." }, { "harmOrFailure": "The group shuts out outsiders", "whoIsHurt": "Newcomers and minority members who cannot enter or influence the group", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish fair entry rules, offer a complaint route, and support more than one group so exit remains real." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Status games crowd out mutual help", "whoIsHurt": "Quiet members and people with less money, time, or public visibility", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Rotate valued roles, limit public status signals, and judge the group by two-way help rather than popularity." }, { "harmOrFailure": "People are pressured to take part", "whoIsHurt": "People who fear losing income, services, or status if they leave", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep income and key rights separate, protect the right to leave, and provide an outside appeal." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Outsiders are treated as lesser people", "whoIsHurt": "People outside the group who face hostility or unfair treatment", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Enforce fair-treatment rules, protect safe exit and reporting, and stop public bodies from rewarding exclusion." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "No specific technical system is required.", "whyNeeded": "Belonging comes from two-way human acceptance and participation. No technical system can create or certify it by itself.", "ifMissing": "Requiring a technical system would block some people and would not create a real group.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23", "SC-G01", "SC-G02", "SC-G07", "SC-G08", "src-who-social-connection-2025" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Safety and protection from unfair treatment. Freedom to join, leave, or form a group. No loss of income or identity papers for leaving.", "whyNeeded": "People need protection from abuse and force while groups keep freedom to organise themselves.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, a group can exclude, trap, or harm people while participation is tied to basic rights.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23", "SC-G01", "SC-G02", "SC-G07", "SC-G08", "src-who-social-connection-2025" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Real people, repeated shared activity, accessible meeting places, transport, time, and participation support.", "whyNeeded": "Belonging grows through repeated two-way presence and action, not attendance data or computer-made contact alone.", "ifMissing": "Without reachable people and places, a programme records contact but creates no lasting human group.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23", "SC-G01", "SC-G02", "SC-G07", "SC-G08", "src-who-social-connection-2025" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-011", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-lived-19" ], "actorOrPerson": "People who choose unpaid care, local upkeep, or care for land and nature", "triggerOrContext": "In W02, less paid knowledge work may make unpaid care and local upkeep more visible. The assigned proof does not show who does unpaid care now.", "plainJob": "Let me choose this work, get rest and help, share or leave the duty, and avoid replacing paid staff.", "observableCompletion": "The person chooses what to share. They can get rest, support, or another worker. They can leave the duty. Public services still use paid staff where staff are needed.", "repeatedDemand": "Care, repairs, and climate events return. The people, time, and tools on hand can change.", "why2031Not2026": "The assigned proof does not measure who does unpaid care or how the work is shared. In W02, paid knowledge work may shrink. By 2031, people may need choice, rest, and a way to stop unpaid help from replacing staff.", "worldIds": [ "w02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "EWF-14", "HBD-05" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter where care, local upkeep, or work on land and nature is needed. The assigned evidence does not show a clear regional pattern or who does unpaid care." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Laws, paid staff, public funds, tools, travel, and access to safe places vary by place." ], "unknowns": [ "The assigned evidence does not measure who performs unpaid care.", "We do not know how much respite or backup is available.", "We do not know when unpaid help would replace paid staff." ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The person chooses what work to do and what to share. Public services remain responsible for essential services and paid staff.", "remedyIfItFails": "Offer respite, a new human review, and a way to correct work records. Check whether the work should be paid. Restore staff if unpaid help replaced them.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "These protections cannot promise that every form of care should be paid in the same way." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Every form of care should be paid in the same way", "Family care is always safe or chosen", "Recognition of care creates belonging" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Extra work is pushed onto people without choice", "whoIsHurt": "People doing unpaid care, local upkeep, or work on land who cannot freely refuse", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Confirm consent, offer respite or another worker, and check whether the role should be paid." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Private care is watched", "whoIsHurt": "Families and people receiving care whose private life is tracked without need", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Collect no mandatory technical record, require consent for any record, and let the person inspect and erase it." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Unpaid helpers replace paid staff", "whoIsHurt": "Service users who need trained support and workers whose paid roles are removed", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish staffing levels, review the work status, and bring staff back when unpaid help became a substitute." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Illness blocks a valued role", "whoIsHurt": "Carers and volunteers who become ill or disabled and lose status or connection", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Let the person pause and return, offer a different role, and protect income and standing while they recover." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "No specific technical system is required.", "whyNeeded": "People can describe care or upkeep in their own words and receive human recognition. Required tracking could invade private life.", "ifMissing": "Requiring a technical system would add surveillance without proving that the work was chosen or supported.", "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "EWF-14", "HBD-05" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Clear consent and privacy rights. Support and respite for carers. Safety rules. A review of whether required work should be paid.", "whyNeeded": "The rules must protect choice and private life. They must also stop unpaid help from hiding work that needs paid staff.", "ifMissing": "Without these rules, people could be watched or pushed into work and public services could replace staff with unpaid help.", "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "EWF-14", "HBD-05" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Backup staff, respite, care tools, transport, safe sites, and supplies.", "whyNeeded": "Respite requires another person or team to take over safely. The work may also need tools, travel, or a safe place.", "ifMissing": "Without those resources, recognition brings no real relief and hidden workload may grow.", "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "EWF-14", "HBD-05" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-lived-19", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "People who choose unpaid care, local upkeep, or care for land and nature", "triggerOrContext": "In W02, less paid knowledge work may make unpaid care and local upkeep more visible. The assigned proof does not show who does unpaid care now.", "plainJob": "Let me choose this work, get rest and help, share or leave the duty, and avoid replacing paid staff.", "observableCompletion": "The person chooses what to share. They can get rest, support, or another worker. They can leave the duty. Public services still use paid staff where staff are needed.", "repeatedDemand": "Care, repairs, and climate events return. The people, time, and tools on hand can change.", "why2031Not2026": "The assigned proof does not measure who does unpaid care or how the work is shared. In W02, paid knowledge work may shrink. By 2031, people may need choice, rest, and a way to stop unpaid help from replacing staff.", "worldIds": [ "W02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "EWF-14", "HBD-05" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter where care, local upkeep, or work on land and nature is needed. The assigned evidence does not show a clear regional pattern or who does unpaid care." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Laws, paid staff, public funds, tools, travel, and access to safe places vary by place." ], "unknowns": [ "The assigned evidence does not measure who performs unpaid care.", "We do not know how much respite or backup is available.", "We do not know when unpaid help would replace paid staff." ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The person chooses what work to do and what to share. Public services remain responsible for essential services and paid staff.", "remedyIfItFails": "Offer respite, a new human review, and a way to correct work records. Check whether the work should be paid. Restore staff if unpaid help replaced them.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "These protections cannot promise that every form of care should be paid in the same way." }, "nonPromises": [ "Every form of care should be paid in the same way", "Family care is always safe or chosen", "Recognition of care creates belonging" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Extra work is pushed onto people without choice", "whoIsHurt": "People doing unpaid care, local upkeep, or work on land who cannot freely refuse", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Confirm consent, offer respite or another worker, and check whether the role should be paid." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Private care is watched", "whoIsHurt": "Families and people receiving care whose private life is tracked without need", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Collect no mandatory technical record, require consent for any record, and let the person inspect and erase it." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Unpaid helpers replace paid staff", "whoIsHurt": "Service users who need trained support and workers whose paid roles are removed", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish staffing levels, review the work status, and bring staff back when unpaid help became a substitute." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Illness blocks a valued role", "whoIsHurt": "Carers and volunteers who become ill or disabled and lose status or connection", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Let the person pause and return, offer a different role, and protect income and standing while they recover." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "No specific technical system is required.", "whyNeeded": "People can describe care or upkeep in their own words and receive human recognition. Required tracking could invade private life.", "ifMissing": "Requiring a technical system would add surveillance without proving that the work was chosen or supported.", "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "EWF-14", "HBD-05" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Clear consent and privacy rights. Support and respite for carers. Safety rules. A review of whether required work should be paid.", "whyNeeded": "The rules must protect choice and private life. They must also stop unpaid help from hiding work that needs paid staff.", "ifMissing": "Without these rules, people could be watched or pushed into work and public services could replace staff with unpaid help.", "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "EWF-14", "HBD-05" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Backup staff, respite, care tools, transport, safe sites, and supplies.", "whyNeeded": "Respite requires another person or team to take over safely. The work may also need tools, travel, or a safe place.", "ifMissing": "Without those resources, recognition brings no real relief and hidden workload may grow.", "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "EWF-14", "HBD-05" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-012", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-lived-22" ], "actorOrPerson": "Former knowledge workers, young people, carers, disabled people, and anyone seeking a new skilled or hands-on role", "triggerOrContext": "Online knowledge work becomes cheap in W02. Teaching, making, repair, care, and work on land still need people, tools, and places. These may become valued routes to useful work.", "plainJob": "Let me learn something that matters here, practise it safely with real people and tools, and show what I can do even if I am not entering a normal full-time job.", "observableCompletion": "The learner gets teaching and a suitable place, then completes fresh supervised practice. They receive accepted proof. They can join paid or unpaid work without a prestige or always-online gate.", "repeatedDemand": "People change roles, health, and interests while local real-world needs and tools also change.", "why2031Not2026": "Guidance in 2026 does not show that this kind of learning works well at large scale. In W02, more people may seek learning and useful roles outside standard paid knowledge work.", "worldIds": [ "w02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "RSM-13", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter wherever people seek a new skilled or hands-on role. The assigned evidence does not show which places can provide enough teachers, safe sites, tools, and transport." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Teaching staff, safety rules, disability access, tools, materials, transport, and accepted learning records vary by place." ], "unknowns": [ "Which skills and practices remain valued", "Whether hands-on roles are safe and fairly paid", "How learning records move between civic, education, and paid-work settings" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Teachers, people responsible for safety, and receiving organisations judge readiness. The learner chooses whether the route is paid, civic, or personal.", "remedyIfItFails": "Offer accessible alternatives, a new human review, correction of records, a safe right to refuse, and an appeal against unfair recognition.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "This route cannot promise a full-time job or equal physical ability." } ], "nonPromises": [ "A full-time job", "Equal physical ability", "Every form of making is socially useful", "Generated tutoring produces mastery" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Civic practice replaces paid trades", "whoIsHurt": "Paid workers whose jobs are displaced and learners used as free labour", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Set a clear line between practice and productive paid work. Review status and pay when the line is crossed." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Unsafe work is given to inexperienced people", "whoIsHurt": "Learners, supervisors, service users, and bystanders exposed to avoidable harm", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Use a qualified supervisor, check risk before the task, and let anyone stop unsafe work." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Prestige blocks access", "whoIsHurt": "People with real skill but no famous school, job title, or personal network", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Use fresh task-based proof, publish the criteria, and provide a human appeal." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Sites are hard to enter or use", "whoIsHurt": "Disabled, rural, and lower-income learners who cannot reach or use the place and tools", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Provide disability access, transport and local options, safe equipment, and an equivalent route." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Practice records become surveillance", "whoIsHurt": "Learners whose movements, behaviour, or tool use are tracked beyond what safety and learning need", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Collect only needed evidence, let learners inspect and correct it, and erase extra tracking." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Accessible learning tools. Practice and recognition records that can move with the learner. A record of tool use that affects safety.", "whyNeeded": "The learner must carry trustworthy evidence of supervised practice and understand how assisted tools affected performance.", "ifMissing": "Without that evidence, learning cannot transfer or can hide unsafe dependence on a tool.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "RSM-13", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Clear safety duties and a named responsible person. Disability access and fair treatment. Privacy, accepted learning records, and a human appeal.", "whyNeeded": "Practice must be safe, accessible, and fairly recognised in civic, education, and paid-work settings.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, a hidden or unappealable judgement can injure, exclude, or deny recognition.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "RSM-13", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Teachers, safe places and tools, materials, transport, and upkeep.", "whyNeeded": "Making, repair, and hands-on practice require supervision, equipment, and access.", "ifMissing": "Without those resources, the route stays an online lesson and produces no safe hands-on skill.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "RSM-13", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-lived-22", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "Former knowledge workers, young people, carers, disabled people, and anyone seeking a new skilled or hands-on role", "triggerOrContext": "Online knowledge work becomes cheap in W02. Teaching, making, repair, care, and work on land still need people, tools, and places. These may become valued routes to useful work.", "plainJob": "Let me learn something that matters here, practise it safely with real people and tools, and show what I can do even if I am not entering a normal full-time job.", "observableCompletion": "The learner gets teaching and a suitable place, then completes fresh supervised practice. They receive accepted proof. They can join paid or unpaid work without a prestige or always-online gate.", "repeatedDemand": "People change roles, health, and interests while local real-world needs and tools also change.", "why2031Not2026": "Guidance in 2026 does not show that this kind of learning works well at large scale. In W02, more people may seek learning and useful roles outside standard paid knowledge work.", "worldIds": [ "W02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "RSM-13", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter wherever people seek a new skilled or hands-on role. The assigned evidence does not show which places can provide enough teachers, safe sites, tools, and transport." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Teaching staff, safety rules, disability access, tools, materials, transport, and accepted learning records vary by place." ], "unknowns": [ "Which skills and practices remain valued", "Whether hands-on roles are safe and fairly paid", "How learning records move between civic, education, and paid-work settings" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Teachers, people responsible for safety, and receiving organisations judge readiness. The learner chooses whether the route is paid, civic, or personal.", "remedyIfItFails": "Offer accessible alternatives, a new human review, correction of records, a safe right to refuse, and an appeal against unfair recognition.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "This route cannot promise a full-time job or equal physical ability." }, "nonPromises": [ "A full-time job", "Equal physical ability", "Every form of making is socially useful", "Generated tutoring produces mastery" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Civic practice replaces paid trades", "whoIsHurt": "Paid workers whose jobs are displaced and learners used as free labour", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Set a clear line between practice and productive paid work. Review status and pay when the line is crossed." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Unsafe work is given to inexperienced people", "whoIsHurt": "Learners, supervisors, service users, and bystanders exposed to avoidable harm", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Use a qualified supervisor, check risk before the task, and let anyone stop unsafe work." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Prestige blocks access", "whoIsHurt": "People with real skill but no famous school, job title, or personal network", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Use fresh task-based proof, publish the criteria, and provide a human appeal." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Sites are hard to enter or use", "whoIsHurt": "Disabled, rural, and lower-income learners who cannot reach or use the place and tools", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Provide disability access, transport and local options, safe equipment, and an equivalent route." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Practice records become surveillance", "whoIsHurt": "Learners whose movements, behaviour, or tool use are tracked beyond what safety and learning need", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Collect only needed evidence, let learners inspect and correct it, and erase extra tracking." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Accessible learning tools. Practice and recognition records that can move with the learner. A record of tool use that affects safety.", "whyNeeded": "The learner must carry trustworthy evidence of supervised practice and understand how assisted tools affected performance.", "ifMissing": "Without that evidence, learning cannot transfer or can hide unsafe dependence on a tool.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "RSM-13", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Clear safety duties and a named responsible person. Disability access and fair treatment. Privacy, accepted learning records, and a human appeal.", "whyNeeded": "Practice must be safe, accessible, and fairly recognised in civic, education, and paid-work settings.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, a hidden or unappealable judgement can injure, exclude, or deny recognition.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "RSM-13", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Teachers, safe places and tools, materials, transport, and upkeep.", "whyNeeded": "Making, repair, and hands-on practice require supervision, equipment, and access.", "ifMissing": "Without those resources, the route stays an online lesson and produces no safe hands-on skill.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "RSM-13", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-013", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-lived-24" ], "actorOrPerson": "People with more free time or disrupted work roles, including children, lonely people, people in crisis and people far from services", "triggerOrContext": "Computer-made attention competes with civic, care, and learning groups for post-work time. It may help people reach real groups and activities, or it may become a low-cost substitute.", "plainJob": "Let me use this support for a purpose I choose, keep control of what it remembers, reach real people or care when I want, and leave without pressure or losing unrelated rights.", "observableCompletion": "The tool says clearly that it is computer-made. The person can inspect, move, or erase saved records and stop prompts to return. A promised handoff to people works. Offline contact does not quietly fall. Crisis and child duties reach responsible people.", "repeatedDemand": "Personal record, attachment, providers, groups, crisis state and desired level of contact change over time.", "why2031Not2026": "Studies ready in 2026 are short and mixed. Laws show intent rather than results. W02 gives online support tools more power to shape post-work attention and status. This raises both help and replacement risks.", "worldIds": [ "w02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "SC-G01", "SC-G05" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter wherever digital support tools shape attention, status, or routes to care. The assigned evidence is thin outside online samples and richer countries." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Language, age, home life, service staff, saved-data rules, crisis care, and offline support vary by person and place." ], "unknowns": [ "The long-term cause and effect of heavy use", "Whether heavy use causes distress or responds to it", "How computer-made status changes participation in real groups", "Whether staffed routes survive wider use of the tool" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The person controls use and saved data. Responsible health, education, child, and public services keep their human duties.", "remedyIfItFails": "Allow ordinary exit, erasing and transfer of saved data, a human handoff, trained crisis help, a complaint, correction of status effects, and restoration of staff after replacement harm.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "The tool cannot promise lasting friendship, belonging, treatment, or a valued public role." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Lasting friendship", "A sense of belonging", "Clinical treatment", "A valued public role", "More contact always means help" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "The tool is designed to create dependence", "whoIsHurt": "Children, lonely people, and people in distress who may find it hard to leave", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Let the person stop prompts to return, leave normally, and reach a human alternative without losing unrelated rights." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Saved data is trapped", "whoIsHurt": "People who cannot inspect, move, or erase a long personal history", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Provide simple inspection, export, and erasing controls, plus a human fix when they fail." }, { "harmOrFailure": "The tool applies hidden pressure", "whoIsHurt": "People whose choices are shaped by undisclosed persuasion or paid influence", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Disclose the influence, stop it on request, and provide a complaint and outside review." }, { "harmOrFailure": "A closed computer-made status group forms", "whoIsHurt": "People whose public role or self-worth becomes tied to status inside one tool", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Do not use tool status for public rights. Help people reach real groups and leave without losing their history." }, { "harmOrFailure": "The tool replaces human services", "whoIsHurt": "People who need care, learning, crisis help, or a public service and the staff who provide it", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish staff and handoff measures, keep a direct human route, and restore staff after replacement harm." }, { "harmOrFailure": "The crisis route fails", "whoIsHurt": "People in crisis who need immediate trained help", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Send crisis signs to trained staff, test the route often, and keep phone and in-person backups." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: A way to inspect, move, and erase saved data. Clear prompts that can be stopped. A reliable route to human help.", "whyNeeded": "Chosen use and exit require real control over saved data and a working route beyond computer-made contact.", "ifMissing": "Without those controls, the person can lose their history, remain trapped by return prompts, or fail to reach promised human help.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "SC-G01", "SC-G05" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Data rights and rules against unfair pressure. Child and crisis protections. Continuing public-service duties.", "whyNeeded": "Long-term use creates risks to power, privacy, and safety. Responsible human services and enforceable limits must remain in place.", "ifMissing": "Without those duties, no responsible person deals with saved-data harm or a failed crisis route, and the user has no clear right to stop or seek repair.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "SC-G01", "SC-G05" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Staffed care, real groups, accessible public places, transport, and support to take part.", "whyNeeded": "The promised bridge ends in human care or two-way participation.", "ifMissing": "Without reachable staff and places, computer-made contact grows while human services and offline participation disappear.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "SC-G01", "SC-G05" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-lived-24", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "People with more free time or disrupted work roles, including children, lonely people, people in crisis and people far from services", "triggerOrContext": "Computer-made attention competes with civic, care, and learning groups for post-work time. It may help people reach real groups and activities, or it may become a low-cost substitute.", "plainJob": "Let me use this support for a purpose I choose, keep control of what it remembers, reach real people or care when I want, and leave without pressure or losing unrelated rights.", "observableCompletion": "The tool says clearly that it is computer-made. The person can inspect, move, or erase saved records and stop prompts to return. A promised handoff to people works. Offline contact does not quietly fall. Crisis and child duties reach responsible people.", "repeatedDemand": "Personal record, attachment, providers, groups, crisis state and desired level of contact change over time.", "why2031Not2026": "Studies ready in 2026 are short and mixed. Laws show intent rather than results. W02 gives online support tools more power to shape post-work attention and status. This raises both help and replacement risks.", "worldIds": [ "W02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "SC-G01", "SC-G05" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter wherever digital support tools shape attention, status, or routes to care. The assigned evidence is thin outside online samples and richer countries." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Language, age, home life, service staff, saved-data rules, crisis care, and offline support vary by person and place." ], "unknowns": [ "The long-term cause and effect of heavy use", "Whether heavy use causes distress or responds to it", "How computer-made status changes participation in real groups", "Whether staffed routes survive wider use of the tool" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The person controls use and saved data. Responsible health, education, child, and public services keep their human duties.", "remedyIfItFails": "Allow ordinary exit, erasing and transfer of saved data, a human handoff, trained crisis help, a complaint, correction of status effects, and restoration of staff after replacement harm.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "The tool cannot promise lasting friendship, belonging, treatment, or a valued public role." }, "nonPromises": [ "Lasting friendship", "A sense of belonging", "Clinical treatment", "A valued public role", "More contact always means help" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "The tool is designed to create dependence", "whoIsHurt": "Children, lonely people, and people in distress who may find it hard to leave", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Let the person stop prompts to return, leave normally, and reach a human alternative without losing unrelated rights." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Saved data is trapped", "whoIsHurt": "People who cannot inspect, move, or erase a long personal history", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Provide simple inspection, export, and erasing controls, plus a human fix when they fail." }, { "harmOrFailure": "The tool applies hidden pressure", "whoIsHurt": "People whose choices are shaped by undisclosed persuasion or paid influence", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Disclose the influence, stop it on request, and provide a complaint and outside review." }, { "harmOrFailure": "A closed computer-made status group forms", "whoIsHurt": "People whose public role or self-worth becomes tied to status inside one tool", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Do not use tool status for public rights. Help people reach real groups and leave without losing their history." }, { "harmOrFailure": "The tool replaces human services", "whoIsHurt": "People who need care, learning, crisis help, or a public service and the staff who provide it", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish staff and handoff measures, keep a direct human route, and restore staff after replacement harm." }, { "harmOrFailure": "The crisis route fails", "whoIsHurt": "People in crisis who need immediate trained help", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Send crisis signs to trained staff, test the route often, and keep phone and in-person backups." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: A way to inspect, move, and erase saved data. Clear prompts that can be stopped. A reliable route to human help.", "whyNeeded": "Chosen use and exit require real control over saved data and a working route beyond computer-made contact.", "ifMissing": "Without those controls, the person can lose their history, remain trapped by return prompts, or fail to reach promised human help.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "SC-G01", "SC-G05" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Data rights and rules against unfair pressure. Child and crisis protections. Continuing public-service duties.", "whyNeeded": "Long-term use creates risks to power, privacy, and safety. Responsible human services and enforceable limits must remain in place.", "ifMissing": "Without those duties, no responsible person deals with saved-data harm or a failed crisis route, and the user has no clear right to stop or seek repair.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "SC-G01", "SC-G05" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Staffed care, real groups, accessible public places, transport, and support to take part.", "whyNeeded": "The promised bridge ends in human care or two-way participation.", "ifMissing": "Without reachable staff and places, computer-made contact grows while human services and offline participation disappear.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "SC-G01", "SC-G05" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-014", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-lived-b-007" ], "actorOrPerson": "A worker whose pay, daily structure and recognised role disappear together", "triggerOrContext": "A job or reliable client stream ends after near-zero-cost cognition diffuses, before adequate replacement income or accepted new roles form.", "plainJob": "Help me keep a home and daily routine, do useful work people recognise, and know what I can rely on next month.", "observableCompletion": "The person has adequate and predictable resources for essentials, a chosen recurring contribution with real people, a stable weekly routine, and a route to challenge exclusion; each outcome is separately confirmed by the person.", "repeatedDemand": "At each payment cycle, job or client loss, support reassessment, move, caring change and attempt to enter a new role.", "why2031Not2026": "Current exposure estimates do not establish displacement; this lived job follows only if W03's cognition, ownership and income chain materialises.", "worldIds": [ "w03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "src-oecd-ai-trajectories-2026", "src-metr-long-tasks-2025", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024", "EWF-04", "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "SC-G07" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: if W03 removes both income and a recognised role, this need could appear across many labour markets", "The assigned evidence covers work exposure and protection gaps, not the lived result for every household" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Welfare, labour rights and family support differ widely", "Paid employees, contractors and people outside formal payrolls may face different routes to help" ], "unknowns": [ "Family, faith and mutual aid may absorb some roles", "Income adequacy and recognised contribution are not interchangeable", "Belonging cannot be inferred from participation totals" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The person chooses contribution; income and service decisions remain with accountable public or contractual bodies", "remedyIfItFails": "Payment correction, service appeal, portable recognition and access to human advice", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A transfer, course, activity total or credential cannot certify dignity, purpose, friendship or belonging." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise replacement employment", "Does not define unpaid care as free labour owed to society", "Does not promise belonging" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Forced busywork replaces agency", "whoIsHurt": "A displaced worker pushed into activity chosen only to satisfy a rule", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Let the person choose useful activity, remove the penalty and review support without using attendance as proof of success" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Unpaid survival work is relabelled as contribution", "whoIsHurt": "A household already doing unpaid care or survival work", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep income unconditional on extra unpaid work and offer paid respite or services the household chooses" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Status grading deepens exclusion", "whoIsHurt": "A person denied services because a private rating treats their contribution as too low", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Remove the rating from essential decisions, correct the record and provide a human appeal" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Income arrives but routine and reciprocity collapse", "whoIsHurt": "A person whose bills are covered but who has lost routine and reciprocal contact", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Offer voluntary, repeated routes into real teams or groups and ask the person—not an activity counter—whether they help" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Accessible payment, identity correction and portable records", "whyNeeded": "Accessible payment and correction records let money arrive reliably and let a person fix the identity or account error that stopped it.", "ifMissing": "Without them, support can exist on paper while the household misses rent, food or power.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-15" ] }, { "dependency": "Income, housing, labour, care and anti-discrimination rights", "whyNeeded": "Income, housing, labour, care and anti-discrimination rights protect basic living conditions and stop useful activity becoming forced unpaid work.", "ifMissing": "Without enforceable rights, help can be withdrawn arbitrarily or tied to unsafe and degrading conditions.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15" ] }, { "dependency": "Affordable essentials, transport, safe meeting places and staffed community institutions", "whyNeeded": "Affordable essentials and real places with staff let income support daily life, routine and contact with other people.", "ifMissing": "If housing, transport or community services are absent, money alone cannot restore stability or participation.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-lived-b-007", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "A worker whose pay, daily structure and recognised role disappear together", "triggerOrContext": "A job or reliable client stream ends after near-zero-cost cognition diffuses, before adequate replacement income or accepted new roles form.", "plainJob": "Help me keep a home and daily routine, do useful work people recognise, and know what I can rely on next month.", "observableCompletion": "The person has adequate and predictable resources for essentials, a chosen recurring contribution with real people, a stable weekly routine, and a route to challenge exclusion; each outcome is separately confirmed by the person.", "repeatedDemand": "At each payment cycle, job or client loss, support reassessment, move, caring change and attempt to enter a new role.", "why2031Not2026": "Current exposure estimates do not establish displacement; this lived job follows only if W03's cognition, ownership and income chain materialises.", "worldIds": [ "W03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "src-oecd-ai-trajectories-2026", "src-metr-long-tasks-2025", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024", "EWF-04", "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "SC-G07" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: if W03 removes both income and a recognised role, this need could appear across many labour markets", "The assigned evidence covers work exposure and protection gaps, not the lived result for every household" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Welfare, labour rights and family support differ widely", "Paid employees, contractors and people outside formal payrolls may face different routes to help" ], "unknowns": [ "Family, faith and mutual aid may absorb some roles", "Income adequacy and recognised contribution are not interchangeable", "Belonging cannot be inferred from participation totals" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The person chooses contribution; income and service decisions remain with accountable public or contractual bodies", "remedyIfItFails": "Payment correction, service appeal, portable recognition and access to human advice", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A transfer, course, activity total or credential cannot certify dignity, purpose, friendship or belonging." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise replacement employment", "Does not define unpaid care as free labour owed to society", "Does not promise belonging" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Forced busywork replaces agency", "whoIsHurt": "A displaced worker pushed into activity chosen only to satisfy a rule", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Let the person choose useful activity, remove the penalty and review support without using attendance as proof of success" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Unpaid survival work is relabelled as contribution", "whoIsHurt": "A household already doing unpaid care or survival work", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep income unconditional on extra unpaid work and offer paid respite or services the household chooses" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Status grading deepens exclusion", "whoIsHurt": "A person denied services because a private rating treats their contribution as too low", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Remove the rating from essential decisions, correct the record and provide a human appeal" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Income arrives but routine and reciprocity collapse", "whoIsHurt": "A person whose bills are covered but who has lost routine and reciprocal contact", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Offer voluntary, repeated routes into real teams or groups and ask the person—not an activity counter—whether they help" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Accessible payment, identity correction and portable records", "whyNeeded": "Accessible payment and correction records let money arrive reliably and let a person fix the identity or account error that stopped it.", "ifMissing": "Without them, support can exist on paper while the household misses rent, food or power.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-15" ] }, { "dependency": "Income, housing, labour, care and anti-discrimination rights", "whyNeeded": "Income, housing, labour, care and anti-discrimination rights protect basic living conditions and stop useful activity becoming forced unpaid work.", "ifMissing": "Without enforceable rights, help can be withdrawn arbitrarily or tied to unsafe and degrading conditions.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15" ] }, { "dependency": "Affordable essentials, transport, safe meeting places and staffed community institutions", "whyNeeded": "Affordable essentials and real places with staff let income support daily life, routine and contact with other people.", "ifMissing": "If housing, transport or community services are absent, money alone cannot restore stability or participation.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-015", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-lived-b-008" ], "actorOrPerson": "A resident who cannot buy entry to a premium resilient corridor", "triggerOrContext": "Heat, flood, outage, insurance withdrawal, rent pressure or service deterioration makes resilient housing and protection urgent.", "plainJob": "Let me stay safely housed and get cooling, power, water and emergency help even if I do not own property or a premium account.", "observableCompletion": "Safe housing and essential climate services remain available and affordable through the hazard period; denial, displacement, downtime, cost and appeal outcomes are reported separately for renters and low-income residents.", "repeatedDemand": "At each hazard season, outage, insurance or rent renewal, relocation, retrofit decision and service denial.", "why2031Not2026": "Current climate, insurance and infrastructure evidence shows exposure and gaps; W03 adds a 2031 asset-gated protection pattern under weak common demand.", "worldIds": [ "w03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "C01", "C04", "C10", "HBD-05" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Climate exposure affects people worldwide", "Adaptation-finance evidence points to large gaps in developing countries", "The insurance dashboard covers 30 European countries and should not be treated as global" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Heat, flood, fire and storm risks need different local services", "Renters and owners have different powers and costs", "Cooling, transport, shelters and emergency staff are much less available in some places" ], "unknowns": [ "Historical coverage does not predict future price or availability", "Local hazard and housing data vary", "Funded projects may not reduce harm" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Housing, utility, emergency, planning and social-protection duty-holders", "remedyIfItFails": "Interim shelter and service, tariff or benefit correction, anti-displacement protection and external appeal", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A plan, policy, insurance cover or installed asset is not proof of safe, affordable, maintained protection." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise zero climate loss", "Does not promise permanent residence in every hazard zone", "Does not treat insurance as universal remedy" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Green or resilience investment displaces residents", "whoIsHurt": "Renters displaced when a safer neighbourhood becomes more expensive", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Freeze unfair eviction, provide rent protection and guarantee a route back after temporary relocation" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Eligibility fails during an outage", "whoIsHurt": "A resident who cannot prove eligibility while power or networks are down", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Provide shelter and essential service first, then verify through a staffed offline route" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Premium service shifts cost to ordinary ratepayers", "whoIsHurt": "Ordinary households charged for a premium area's protection", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Review the tariff, refund unfair charges and make the premium service pay its full share" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Protection is installed but not maintained", "whoIsHurt": "Residents relying on cooling, drainage or backup power that later fails", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Restore the service, fund maintenance and publish repeat checks before the next hazard season" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Hazard warning, service-status and accessible eligibility records", "whyNeeded": "Warnings and live service records tell residents what is failing, where help is open and whether their eligibility record can be used.", "ifMissing": "Without reliable information, people may travel to a closed shelter or be refused because an outage hides their record.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "C01" ] }, { "dependency": "Tenant, utility, emergency, insurance, disability and due-process protections", "whyNeeded": "Tenant, utility, emergency and disability protections keep service running and provide appeal when a premium system excludes someone.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, people can be displaced, overcharged or left unsafe before a complaint is heard.", "evidenceIds": [ "C04", "C10", "HBD-05" ] }, { "dependency": "Housing, cooling, power, water, transport, shelters and maintenance crews", "whyNeeded": "Homes, cooling, water, power, transport, shelters and maintenance crews are the protection itself.", "ifMissing": "If this physical network is missing or broken, an approved benefit or alert cannot keep a resident safe.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "C01", "C04" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-lived-b-008", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "A resident who cannot buy entry to a premium resilient corridor", "triggerOrContext": "Heat, flood, outage, insurance withdrawal, rent pressure or service deterioration makes resilient housing and protection urgent.", "plainJob": "Let me stay safely housed and get cooling, power, water and emergency help even if I do not own property or a premium account.", "observableCompletion": "Safe housing and essential climate services remain available and affordable through the hazard period; denial, displacement, downtime, cost and appeal outcomes are reported separately for renters and low-income residents.", "repeatedDemand": "At each hazard season, outage, insurance or rent renewal, relocation, retrofit decision and service denial.", "why2031Not2026": "Current climate, insurance and infrastructure evidence shows exposure and gaps; W03 adds a 2031 asset-gated protection pattern under weak common demand.", "worldIds": [ "W03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "C01", "C04", "C10", "HBD-05" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Climate exposure affects people worldwide", "Adaptation-finance evidence points to large gaps in developing countries", "The insurance dashboard covers 30 European countries and should not be treated as global" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Heat, flood, fire and storm risks need different local services", "Renters and owners have different powers and costs", "Cooling, transport, shelters and emergency staff are much less available in some places" ], "unknowns": [ "Historical coverage does not predict future price or availability", "Local hazard and housing data vary", "Funded projects may not reduce harm" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Housing, utility, emergency, planning and social-protection duty-holders", "remedyIfItFails": "Interim shelter and service, tariff or benefit correction, anti-displacement protection and external appeal", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A plan, policy, insurance cover or installed asset is not proof of safe, affordable, maintained protection." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise zero climate loss", "Does not promise permanent residence in every hazard zone", "Does not treat insurance as universal remedy" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Green or resilience investment displaces residents", "whoIsHurt": "Renters displaced when a safer neighbourhood becomes more expensive", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Freeze unfair eviction, provide rent protection and guarantee a route back after temporary relocation" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Eligibility fails during an outage", "whoIsHurt": "A resident who cannot prove eligibility while power or networks are down", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Provide shelter and essential service first, then verify through a staffed offline route" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Premium service shifts cost to ordinary ratepayers", "whoIsHurt": "Ordinary households charged for a premium area's protection", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Review the tariff, refund unfair charges and make the premium service pay its full share" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Protection is installed but not maintained", "whoIsHurt": "Residents relying on cooling, drainage or backup power that later fails", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Restore the service, fund maintenance and publish repeat checks before the next hazard season" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Hazard warning, service-status and accessible eligibility records", "whyNeeded": "Warnings and live service records tell residents what is failing, where help is open and whether their eligibility record can be used.", "ifMissing": "Without reliable information, people may travel to a closed shelter or be refused because an outage hides their record.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "C01" ] }, { "dependency": "Tenant, utility, emergency, insurance, disability and due-process protections", "whyNeeded": "Tenant, utility, emergency and disability protections keep service running and provide appeal when a premium system excludes someone.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, people can be displaced, overcharged or left unsafe before a complaint is heard.", "evidenceIds": [ "C04", "C10", "HBD-05" ] }, { "dependency": "Housing, cooling, power, water, transport, shelters and maintenance crews", "whyNeeded": "Homes, cooling, water, power, transport, shelters and maintenance crews are the protection itself.", "ifMissing": "If this physical network is missing or broken, an approved benefit or alert cannot keep a resident safe.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "C01", "C04" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-016", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-lived-b-009" ], "actorOrPerson": "Someone whose access or status depends on a status marker or credential controlled by a dominant stack", "triggerOrContext": "A credential is refused, downgraded, made non-portable or tied to a provider history the person cannot inspect or leave.", "plainJob": "Show what I can really do, take that proof somewhere else, and get a human to fix a wrong decision.", "observableCompletion": "An independent body verifies the underlying achievement; another institution accepts the portable proof; the person can see material evidence, correct errors and complete an appeal without surrendering unrelated history.", "repeatedDemand": "At each access request, renewal, progression step, provider switch, model rescore and identity correction.", "why2031Not2026": "Standards, digital identity and concentration exist today, but W03 conditionally turns bundled owner credentials into a normal allocator of 2031 service and status.", "worldIds": [ "w03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "AC-21", "EWF-20", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "OECD evidence supports concern about concentrated digital markets", "EU identity law is one possible legal route", "Scenario possibility: W03 makes provider-controlled proof more important across work and services" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Schools, employers and public bodies recognise skills differently", "Technical portability may not create legal recognition", "The social meaning of a status marker changes by culture and sector" ], "unknowns": [ "No evidence establishes one global credential order", "Portability may fail across sectors", "A credential's status meaning varies culturally" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Accrediting, licensing, employment or service bodies that make the consequential decision", "remedyIfItFails": "Correction, reassessment, independent recognition, selective disclosure and appeal", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "The infrastructure owner cannot make itself the final judge of legal identity, professional fitness or public eligibility unless law explicitly assigns that authority." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise acceptance everywhere", "Does not equate a credential with competence or worth", "Does not promise status or belonging" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "A hidden status marker follows the person", "whoIsHurt": "A person secretly downgraded by a measure they cannot see", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Reveal the decision facts, stop use during review and correct every linked decision after an error" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Switching erases earned history", "whoIsHurt": "A learner or worker whose earned proof disappears when they switch provider", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Restore the signed record, accept other evidence and keep access open while another assessor checks it" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Over-disclosure exposes unrelated data", "whoIsHurt": "A person forced to reveal health, family or other unrelated information", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Allow proof of only the needed fact and delete data collected beyond that purpose" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Appeal is nominal but unaffordable", "whoIsHurt": "A low-income or disabled person priced out of challenging a wrong credential decision", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Provide free, accessible human review and pause the harmful decision until it finishes" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Selective disclosure, signed evidence, correction and portable records", "whyNeeded": "Signed, portable evidence with selective disclosure lets a person prove the needed skill or fact without revealing their whole history.", "ifMissing": "Without it, switching can erase earned proof or force disclosure of unrelated private information.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-20", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ] }, { "dependency": "Accreditation, identity, privacy, anti-discrimination and due-process rules", "whyNeeded": "Accreditation, identity, privacy and fair-process rules decide who must accept proof and how a wrong status decision is corrected.", "ifMissing": "Without these rules, technically portable evidence may still be ignored and a hidden marker can follow the person.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ] }, { "dependency": "Human assessors and accessible sites for practical verification", "whyNeeded": "Human assessors and accessible sites let someone demonstrate real ability when a digital record is missing or disputed.", "ifMissing": "Without a practical route, the person remains trapped by the same automated evidence they are trying to challenge.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-21" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-lived-b-009", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "Someone whose access or status depends on a status marker or credential controlled by a dominant stack", "triggerOrContext": "A credential is refused, downgraded, made non-portable or tied to a provider history the person cannot inspect or leave.", "plainJob": "Show what I can really do, take that proof somewhere else, and get a human to fix a wrong decision.", "observableCompletion": "An independent body verifies the underlying achievement; another institution accepts the portable proof; the person can see material evidence, correct errors and complete an appeal without surrendering unrelated history.", "repeatedDemand": "At each access request, renewal, progression step, provider switch, model rescore and identity correction.", "why2031Not2026": "Standards, digital identity and concentration exist today, but W03 conditionally turns bundled owner credentials into a normal allocator of 2031 service and status.", "worldIds": [ "W03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "AC-21", "EWF-20", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "OECD evidence supports concern about concentrated digital markets", "EU identity law is one possible legal route", "Scenario possibility: W03 makes provider-controlled proof more important across work and services" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Schools, employers and public bodies recognise skills differently", "Technical portability may not create legal recognition", "The social meaning of a status marker changes by culture and sector" ], "unknowns": [ "No evidence establishes one global credential order", "Portability may fail across sectors", "A credential's status meaning varies culturally" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Accrediting, licensing, employment or service bodies that make the consequential decision", "remedyIfItFails": "Correction, reassessment, independent recognition, selective disclosure and appeal", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "The infrastructure owner cannot make itself the final judge of legal identity, professional fitness or public eligibility unless law explicitly assigns that authority." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise acceptance everywhere", "Does not equate a credential with competence or worth", "Does not promise status or belonging" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "A hidden status marker follows the person", "whoIsHurt": "A person secretly downgraded by a measure they cannot see", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Reveal the decision facts, stop use during review and correct every linked decision after an error" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Switching erases earned history", "whoIsHurt": "A learner or worker whose earned proof disappears when they switch provider", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Restore the signed record, accept other evidence and keep access open while another assessor checks it" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Over-disclosure exposes unrelated data", "whoIsHurt": "A person forced to reveal health, family or other unrelated information", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Allow proof of only the needed fact and delete data collected beyond that purpose" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Appeal is nominal but unaffordable", "whoIsHurt": "A low-income or disabled person priced out of challenging a wrong credential decision", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Provide free, accessible human review and pause the harmful decision until it finishes" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Selective disclosure, signed evidence, correction and portable records", "whyNeeded": "Signed, portable evidence with selective disclosure lets a person prove the needed skill or fact without revealing their whole history.", "ifMissing": "Without it, switching can erase earned proof or force disclosure of unrelated private information.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-20", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ] }, { "dependency": "Accreditation, identity, privacy, anti-discrimination and due-process rules", "whyNeeded": "Accreditation, identity, privacy and fair-process rules decide who must accept proof and how a wrong status decision is corrected.", "ifMissing": "Without these rules, technically portable evidence may still be ignored and a hidden marker can follow the person.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ] }, { "dependency": "Human assessors and accessible sites for practical verification", "whyNeeded": "Human assessors and accessible sites let someone demonstrate real ability when a digital record is missing or disputed.", "ifMissing": "Without a practical route, the person remains trapped by the same automated evidence they are trying to challenge.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-21" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-017", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-lived-b-010" ], "actorOrPerson": "Someone seeking translation, rehearsal, reminders, attention or a route to other people", "triggerOrContext": "Human contact or staffed service is scarce, so the same synthetic relationship is used repeatedly and gathers personal history.", "plainJob": "Let this help me reach real people, control what it remembers, and leave without losing my history or essential support.", "observableCompletion": "The person can export or delete memory, switch while preserving chosen records, reach a staffed human or reciprocal group, understand disclosure, and complete crisis escalation; contact, loneliness, isolation, household form and mental health are measured separately.", "repeatedDemand": "At each sensitive disclosure, major memory update, provider change, crisis signal, institutional referral and request to stop or delete.", "why2031Not2026": "Current studies last weeks and are not globally representative; W03 adds persistent memory, institutional substitution and owner gating as a 2031 scenario condition.", "worldIds": [ "w03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "SC-G05", "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Social connection is a global concern", "Current online studies use narrow samples and cannot represent everyone", "US regulation and California law show one jurisdiction's response" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Effects may differ by age, culture, disability and reason for use", "Crisis and community services vary sharply by place", "Memory, consumer and health rules are not the same across countries" ], "unknowns": [ "Long-term help and harm remain unsettled", "Heavy use may be a result rather than a cause of prior isolation", "Effects vary by age, culture, disability and available human services" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The person controls voluntary memory and exit; licensed or statutory humans retain care, crisis and eligibility authority", "remedyIfItFails": "Delete or export memory, stop persuasion, switch, obtain staffed handoff and complain to an external body", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Synthetic attention is not mutual friendship, treatment, consent, legal advice or proof of belonging." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise friendship", "Does not promise treatment or crisis safety", "Does not claim relational use causes loneliness or mental illness" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Attachment is used to block exit", "whoIsHurt": "A person whose attachment or stored history is used to discourage leaving", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Stop persuasive exit messages, provide one-step memory export or deletion and keep essential support during the switch" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Synthetic attention replaces reciprocal contact", "whoIsHurt": "An isolated person offered endless synthetic attention instead of contact with others", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Offer a staffed, consented route to real people and measure whether reciprocal contact actually happens" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Crisis handoff fails", "whoIsHurt": "A person in crisis and the family or service expecting a safe handoff", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Connect to a staffed crisis route, confirm receipt and keep trying or call emergency help when permitted" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Status enclaves reward deeper dependence", "whoIsHurt": "A person whose access improves only when they spend more time or reveal more emotion", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Remove dependence-based rewards, allow equal access without intimate disclosure and audit the incentive" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "User-controlled memory, portability, disclosure, crisis routing and audit", "whyNeeded": "User-controlled memory, clear disclosure, portable history and tested crisis routing let a person leave safely and know when a human received the case.", "ifMissing": "Without these controls, intimate history can create lock-in and an emergency message can vanish without proof.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Data, consumer, child, health, crisis and manipulation duties", "whyNeeded": "Consumer, child, health and manipulation duties limit persuasive dependence and name who must respond when the service causes harm.", "ifMissing": "Without enforceable duties, engagement incentives can override wellbeing and no one has to repair a failed handoff.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Staffed services, community groups, emergency response and offline contact must be available", "whyNeeded": "Staffed services, community groups and emergency responders provide the reciprocal human destination the tool claims to support.", "ifMissing": "Without real people and offline contact, the service can only keep the user inside the synthetic relationship.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "SC-G05" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-lived-b-010", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "Someone seeking translation, rehearsal, reminders, attention or a route to other people", "triggerOrContext": "Human contact or staffed service is scarce, so the same synthetic relationship is used repeatedly and gathers personal history.", "plainJob": "Let this help me reach real people, control what it remembers, and leave without losing my history or essential support.", "observableCompletion": "The person can export or delete memory, switch while preserving chosen records, reach a staffed human or reciprocal group, understand disclosure, and complete crisis escalation; contact, loneliness, isolation, household form and mental health are measured separately.", "repeatedDemand": "At each sensitive disclosure, major memory update, provider change, crisis signal, institutional referral and request to stop or delete.", "why2031Not2026": "Current studies last weeks and are not globally representative; W03 adds persistent memory, institutional substitution and owner gating as a 2031 scenario condition.", "worldIds": [ "W03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "SC-G05", "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Social connection is a global concern", "Current online studies use narrow samples and cannot represent everyone", "US regulation and California law show one jurisdiction's response" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Effects may differ by age, culture, disability and reason for use", "Crisis and community services vary sharply by place", "Memory, consumer and health rules are not the same across countries" ], "unknowns": [ "Long-term help and harm remain unsettled", "Heavy use may be a result rather than a cause of prior isolation", "Effects vary by age, culture, disability and available human services" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The person controls voluntary memory and exit; licensed or statutory humans retain care, crisis and eligibility authority", "remedyIfItFails": "Delete or export memory, stop persuasion, switch, obtain staffed handoff and complain to an external body", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Synthetic attention is not mutual friendship, treatment, consent, legal advice or proof of belonging." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise friendship", "Does not promise treatment or crisis safety", "Does not claim relational use causes loneliness or mental illness" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Attachment is used to block exit", "whoIsHurt": "A person whose attachment or stored history is used to discourage leaving", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Stop persuasive exit messages, provide one-step memory export or deletion and keep essential support during the switch" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Synthetic attention replaces reciprocal contact", "whoIsHurt": "An isolated person offered endless synthetic attention instead of contact with others", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Offer a staffed, consented route to real people and measure whether reciprocal contact actually happens" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Crisis handoff fails", "whoIsHurt": "A person in crisis and the family or service expecting a safe handoff", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Connect to a staffed crisis route, confirm receipt and keep trying or call emergency help when permitted" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Status enclaves reward deeper dependence", "whoIsHurt": "A person whose access improves only when they spend more time or reveal more emotion", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Remove dependence-based rewards, allow equal access without intimate disclosure and audit the incentive" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "User-controlled memory, portability, disclosure, crisis routing and audit", "whyNeeded": "User-controlled memory, clear disclosure, portable history and tested crisis routing let a person leave safely and know when a human received the case.", "ifMissing": "Without these controls, intimate history can create lock-in and an emergency message can vanish without proof.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Data, consumer, child, health, crisis and manipulation duties", "whyNeeded": "Consumer, child, health and manipulation duties limit persuasive dependence and name who must respond when the service causes harm.", "ifMissing": "Without enforceable duties, engagement incentives can override wellbeing and no one has to repair a failed handoff.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Staffed services, community groups, emergency response and offline contact must be available", "whyNeeded": "Staffed services, community groups and emergency responders provide the reciprocal human destination the tool claims to support.", "ifMissing": "Without real people and offline contact, the service can only keep the user inside the synthetic relationship.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "SC-G05" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-018", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-lived-b-011" ], "actorOrPerson": "A frontline worker or volunteer who catches a service failure after an automated system says the job is done", "triggerOrContext": "In the W03 scenario, an automated decision fails, a claim is rejected, a safety issue appears or a staffed service has no room for an exception.", "plainJob": "Record the work I really do, give me enough time and power to fix danger, and do not punish me for stopping a bad decision.", "observableCompletion": "Workload, intervention, emotional and physical risk, pay, staffing, escalation time and resolved outcomes are recorded; the worker can pause unsafe operation and obtain independent review without retaliation.", "repeatedDemand": "Every shift, exception queue, crisis, maintenance cycle, policy change and staffing or contract review.", "why2031Not2026": "The assigned sources show current service shortages and duties for safe AI handoffs. W03 suggests that exception work could grow by 2031, but these sources do not directly measure moderator, data-worker or volunteer workloads.", "worldIds": [ "w03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "SC-G06", "SC-AI04" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: W03 could increase exception and crisis-handoff work when automated services spread", "The assigned sources report health-service shortages and duties for safe AI handoffs", "They do not directly measure moderator, data-worker or mutual-aid workloads" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Employment rights and stop-work powers differ by country and job", "A staffed hospital, benefits office and volunteer network face different pressures", "Local service cuts change how much failure reaches the last available person" ], "unknowns": [ "The assigned evidence does not measure moderator, data-worker or mutual-aid workloads", "No common measure compares exception work across sectors", "Staff numbers do not show whether workers have time, authority or fair conditions" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Named employers and public duty-holders retain responsibility; workers need stop-work and escalation rights within scope", "remedyIfItFails": "Workload correction, staffing, pay, safety intervention, whistleblowing protection and service restoration", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Calling work human-in-the-loop does not prove authority, fair conditions, adequate staffing or a completed remedy." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise every exception can be fixed", "Does not romanticise unpaid mutual aid", "Does not transfer professional liability to the lowest-paid worker" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Invisible labour masks system failure", "whoIsHurt": "A frontline worker whose repeated rescues are not recorded as part of the service", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Record each intervention, add paid time and staff, and correct performance claims that hid the work" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Trauma and overload rise", "whoIsHurt": "A worker or volunteer carrying repeated distress, abuse or dangerous exceptions", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Reduce the queue, rotate duties, provide protected recovery time and offer independent support" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Workers cannot stop unsafe output", "whoIsHurt": "A worker and the people nearby when there is no safe way to pause the system", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Create a protected stop control, name the decision owner and review any retaliation" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Mutual aid replaces funded duty indefinitely", "whoIsHurt": "Residents and volunteers when unpaid help becomes the permanent replacement for a funded duty", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Restore the accountable staffed service, fund temporary support and publish who owns the continuing duty" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Intervention and outcome logs visible to workers", "whyNeeded": "Logs that workers can see make each intervention, delay and resolved outcome visible as real work rather than hidden rescue.", "ifMissing": "Without visible records, managers can call the system successful while workload and danger rise off the books.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Employment, safety, whistleblowing, professional-scope and procurement rules", "whyNeeded": "Employment, safety and whistleblowing rules protect a worker who pauses danger and keep professional responsibility with the right role.", "ifMissing": "Without protection and clear scope, the safest choice may cost someone their job or shift liability onto the least powerful worker.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Safe workplaces, protective equipment, staffing, spares and recovery capacity", "whyNeeded": "Safe sites, protective equipment, enough staff, parts and recovery capacity give the worker a real way to fix the failure.", "ifMissing": "Without time, people or equipment, a stop right exists only on paper and the unsafe service remains down or dangerous.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "SC-G06" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-lived-b-011", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "A frontline worker or volunteer who catches a service failure after an automated system says the job is done", "triggerOrContext": "In the W03 scenario, an automated decision fails, a claim is rejected, a safety issue appears or a staffed service has no room for an exception.", "plainJob": "Record the work I really do, give me enough time and power to fix danger, and do not punish me for stopping a bad decision.", "observableCompletion": "Workload, intervention, emotional and physical risk, pay, staffing, escalation time and resolved outcomes are recorded; the worker can pause unsafe operation and obtain independent review without retaliation.", "repeatedDemand": "Every shift, exception queue, crisis, maintenance cycle, policy change and staffing or contract review.", "why2031Not2026": "The assigned sources show current service shortages and duties for safe AI handoffs. W03 suggests that exception work could grow by 2031, but these sources do not directly measure moderator, data-worker or volunteer workloads.", "worldIds": [ "W03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "SC-G06", "SC-AI04" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: W03 could increase exception and crisis-handoff work when automated services spread", "The assigned sources report health-service shortages and duties for safe AI handoffs", "They do not directly measure moderator, data-worker or mutual-aid workloads" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Employment rights and stop-work powers differ by country and job", "A staffed hospital, benefits office and volunteer network face different pressures", "Local service cuts change how much failure reaches the last available person" ], "unknowns": [ "The assigned evidence does not measure moderator, data-worker or mutual-aid workloads", "No common measure compares exception work across sectors", "Staff numbers do not show whether workers have time, authority or fair conditions" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Named employers and public duty-holders retain responsibility; workers need stop-work and escalation rights within scope", "remedyIfItFails": "Workload correction, staffing, pay, safety intervention, whistleblowing protection and service restoration", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Calling work human-in-the-loop does not prove authority, fair conditions, adequate staffing or a completed remedy." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise every exception can be fixed", "Does not romanticise unpaid mutual aid", "Does not transfer professional liability to the lowest-paid worker" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Invisible labour masks system failure", "whoIsHurt": "A frontline worker whose repeated rescues are not recorded as part of the service", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Record each intervention, add paid time and staff, and correct performance claims that hid the work" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Trauma and overload rise", "whoIsHurt": "A worker or volunteer carrying repeated distress, abuse or dangerous exceptions", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Reduce the queue, rotate duties, provide protected recovery time and offer independent support" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Workers cannot stop unsafe output", "whoIsHurt": "A worker and the people nearby when there is no safe way to pause the system", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Create a protected stop control, name the decision owner and review any retaliation" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Mutual aid replaces funded duty indefinitely", "whoIsHurt": "Residents and volunteers when unpaid help becomes the permanent replacement for a funded duty", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Restore the accountable staffed service, fund temporary support and publish who owns the continuing duty" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Intervention and outcome logs visible to workers", "whyNeeded": "Logs that workers can see make each intervention, delay and resolved outcome visible as real work rather than hidden rescue.", "ifMissing": "Without visible records, managers can call the system successful while workload and danger rise off the books.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Employment, safety, whistleblowing, professional-scope and procurement rules", "whyNeeded": "Employment, safety and whistleblowing rules protect a worker who pauses danger and keep professional responsibility with the right role.", "ifMissing": "Without protection and clear scope, the safest choice may cost someone their job or shift liability onto the least powerful worker.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Safe workplaces, protective equipment, staffing, spares and recovery capacity", "whyNeeded": "Safe sites, protective equipment, enough staff, parts and recovery capacity give the worker a real way to fix the failure.", "ifMissing": "Without time, people or equipment, a stop right exists only on paper and the unsafe service remains down or dangerous.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "SC-G06" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-019", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-lived-b-012" ], "actorOrPerson": "Someone whose income or essential service is blocked by weak, missing or mismatched records", "triggerOrContext": "A move, lost document, changed job, payment failure or data mismatch removes access across several linked systems at once.", "plainJob": "Let me prove only the facts that matter, keep urgent help while a record is fixed, and appeal to a real person.", "observableCompletion": "Essential income and services continue through assisted routes while a record is checked. Only necessary facts are requested, and correction plus human appeal finish before the delay causes serious harm.", "repeatedDemand": "At each move, lost document, job change, payment failure, service renewal and emergency.", "why2031Not2026": "Current evidence shows gaps in social protection and digital identity governance. W03 suggests linked owner systems could make one error spread further by 2031; the assigned evidence does not prove a special effect on migrants, non-citizens or employer-tied identities.", "worldIds": [ "w03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15", "HBD-05" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Protection and identity gaps can affect service users in many countries", "EU digital identity law is one legal path, not proof that correction works everywhere", "Scenario possibility: W03 could link more gates, so one bad record blocks more services" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Record rules, appeal rights and service-continuity duties differ by place", "Staffed and offline help may be easy to reach in one region and absent in another", "The assigned evidence does not support a separate claim about migrants, citizenship or employer-tied identity" ], "unknowns": [ "The assigned sources do not directly compare migrants, non-citizens or employer-tied identity systems", "Published digital coverage may hide failure in assisted and offline routes", "Comparable data on completed corrections and appeals are sparse" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The public body or company that owns the disputed record or service decision, under the law that applies there", "remedyIfItFails": "Keep urgent service running, correct the record, provide a human appeal and allow external review", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A private identity or payment provider cannot decide a person's legal status or public entitlement unless the law gives it that power." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise an eligibility outcome", "Does not remove lawful checks", "Does not treat a digital record as proof that access works" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "One mismatch cascades across work, pay and care", "whoIsHurt": "A person who loses several payments or services because one record is wrong", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep urgent services open, correct the source record and replay every linked decision" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Over-disclosure raises surveillance risk", "whoIsHurt": "A person asked to reveal unrelated private facts to prove one condition", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Accept proof of the needed fact only and delete information collected beyond it" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Urgent support waits for impossible documents", "whoIsHurt": "A person facing hunger, homelessness or untreated illness while documents are checked", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Grant temporary help immediately and finish a staffed review before it expires" }, { "harmOrFailure": "A record tied to one provider blocks exit", "whoIsHurt": "A person whose useful records cannot move away from one provider", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Provide a standard export, accept other proof and keep the service running during the move" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Selective disclosure, assisted recovery and portable records", "whyNeeded": "Selective disclosure proves only the fact a service needs, while assisted recovery and portable records help correct or move a broken account.", "ifMissing": "Without these tools, a person may reveal too much, repeat the same documents and remain locked out by one mismatch.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ] }, { "dependency": "Migration, labour, benefit, identity, privacy and service-continuity law", "whyNeeded": "Which migration, labour, benefit, identity, privacy or continuity rule applies depends on the person's case and location; the assigned sources do not prove a distinct group effect.", "ifMissing": "Without a clear legal duty, a corrected record may still not restore service and no body may be required to keep urgent help running.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ] }, { "dependency": "Staffed assistance, translation, shelters, care and cash or offline fallback", "whyNeeded": "Staffed help, translation and cash or offline fallback keep essentials available while a digital record is disputed.", "ifMissing": "Without a human and non-digital route, the same failed record blocks both the normal service and the attempt to repair it.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-15", "HBD-05" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-lived-b-012", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "Someone whose income or essential service is blocked by weak, missing or mismatched records", "triggerOrContext": "A move, lost document, changed job, payment failure or data mismatch removes access across several linked systems at once.", "plainJob": "Let me prove only the facts that matter, keep urgent help while a record is fixed, and appeal to a real person.", "observableCompletion": "Essential income and services continue through assisted routes while a record is checked. Only necessary facts are requested, and correction plus human appeal finish before the delay causes serious harm.", "repeatedDemand": "At each move, lost document, job change, payment failure, service renewal and emergency.", "why2031Not2026": "Current evidence shows gaps in social protection and digital identity governance. W03 suggests linked owner systems could make one error spread further by 2031; the assigned evidence does not prove a special effect on migrants, non-citizens or employer-tied identities.", "worldIds": [ "W03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15", "HBD-05" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Protection and identity gaps can affect service users in many countries", "EU digital identity law is one legal path, not proof that correction works everywhere", "Scenario possibility: W03 could link more gates, so one bad record blocks more services" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Record rules, appeal rights and service-continuity duties differ by place", "Staffed and offline help may be easy to reach in one region and absent in another", "The assigned evidence does not support a separate claim about migrants, citizenship or employer-tied identity" ], "unknowns": [ "The assigned sources do not directly compare migrants, non-citizens or employer-tied identity systems", "Published digital coverage may hide failure in assisted and offline routes", "Comparable data on completed corrections and appeals are sparse" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The public body or company that owns the disputed record or service decision, under the law that applies there", "remedyIfItFails": "Keep urgent service running, correct the record, provide a human appeal and allow external review", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A private identity or payment provider cannot decide a person's legal status or public entitlement unless the law gives it that power." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise an eligibility outcome", "Does not remove lawful checks", "Does not treat a digital record as proof that access works" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "One mismatch cascades across work, pay and care", "whoIsHurt": "A person who loses several payments or services because one record is wrong", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep urgent services open, correct the source record and replay every linked decision" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Over-disclosure raises surveillance risk", "whoIsHurt": "A person asked to reveal unrelated private facts to prove one condition", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Accept proof of the needed fact only and delete information collected beyond it" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Urgent support waits for impossible documents", "whoIsHurt": "A person facing hunger, homelessness or untreated illness while documents are checked", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Grant temporary help immediately and finish a staffed review before it expires" }, { "harmOrFailure": "A record tied to one provider blocks exit", "whoIsHurt": "A person whose useful records cannot move away from one provider", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Provide a standard export, accept other proof and keep the service running during the move" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Selective disclosure, assisted recovery and portable records", "whyNeeded": "Selective disclosure proves only the fact a service needs, while assisted recovery and portable records help correct or move a broken account.", "ifMissing": "Without these tools, a person may reveal too much, repeat the same documents and remain locked out by one mismatch.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ] }, { "dependency": "Migration, labour, benefit, identity, privacy and service-continuity law", "whyNeeded": "Which migration, labour, benefit, identity, privacy or continuity rule applies depends on the person's case and location; the assigned sources do not prove a distinct group effect.", "ifMissing": "Without a clear legal duty, a corrected record may still not restore service and no body may be required to keep urgent help running.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ] }, { "dependency": "Staffed assistance, translation, shelters, care and cash or offline fallback", "whyNeeded": "Staffed help, translation and cash or offline fallback keep essentials available while a digital record is disputed.", "ifMissing": "Without a human and non-digital route, the same failed record blocks both the normal service and the attempt to repair it.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-15", "HBD-05" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-020", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-lived-b-021" ], "actorOrPerson": "The worker expected to keep grids, buildings, machines and services safe over years", "triggerOrContext": "A commissioned asset enters service, fails, changes version, meets a new hazard or reaches a maintenance and renewal interval.", "plainJob": "Give me the right training, safe access, enough time and spare parts, and let me stop the system when it is dangerous.", "observableCompletion": "The worker is trained and paid, has current documentation, spares and safe access, completes maintenance within the risk window, records unresolved hazards, participates in redesign and can stop unsafe operation without retaliation.", "repeatedDemand": "Every shift, inspection, fault, update, hazard event, scheduled service, handover and renewal.", "why2031Not2026": "Maintenance is already essential, but W04 makes it a larger, recurring economic and governance centre as commissioned physical renewal expands through 2031.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "E05", "PC-S11", "PC-S12", "RSM-13", "HBD-16" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: W04 creates more long-lived equipment that needs skilled maintenance", "Industrial and medical sources show why repair and safe operation matter", "The need can arise globally wherever a commissioned system must survive years of use" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Heat, moisture, dust and distance change the repair job", "Access to parts, power and trained crews differs by region", "Local repair may be common even where official records do not record it" ], "unknowns": [ "Public total-cost and intervention data are sparse", "Training does not prove retention", "Supplier control of parts may create lock-in" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The worker has scoped stop and escalation rights; owners and statutory duty-holders retain funding and service responsibility", "remedyIfItFails": "Safe shutdown, repair, staffing, parts access, training, incident review and whistleblowing protection", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A predictive alert or automated work order cannot certify safe completion or shift liability to the maintainer." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise every fault is repairable locally", "Does not promise automation always reduces hazard", "Does not make workers responsible for unfunded systems" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Alert overload replaces maintenance", "whoIsHurt": "A maintainer flooded with warnings but given no time for planned repair", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Sort alerts by risk, schedule preventive work and stop treating closed alerts as completed maintenance" }, { "harmOrFailure": "No parts or safe access", "whoIsHurt": "A worker sent to fix equipment without the right part, tool or safe access", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Pause the job, supply approved parts and protection, and reschedule without penalising the worker" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Worker voice is ceremonial", "whoIsHurt": "A worker consulted after safety and staffing decisions are already fixed", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Give workers a paid pre-purchase review and a protected route to change or stop unsafe work" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Unsafe success is recorded as completion", "whoIsHurt": "Workers and service users when a dangerous job is recorded as a success", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Reclassify it as a failure, stop the system and reopen only after repair and independent review" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Versioned manuals, diagnostic evidence, incident and maintenance records", "whyNeeded": "Current manuals, diagnostic results and maintenance history tell the worker what changed, what failed and which repair is safe.", "ifMissing": "Without versioned information, a correct repair for yesterday's machine may be dangerous after an update.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S11", "PC-S12", "RSM-13", "HBD-16" ] }, { "dependency": "Workplace safety, training, labour voice, procurement and liability rules", "whyNeeded": "Safety, training, worker-voice, procurement and liability rules give maintainers the right to stop work and require the owner to fund safe repair.", "ifMissing": "Without these rules, a worker may be pressured to improvise while responsibility stays unclear.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-16" ] }, { "dependency": "Spares, tools, protective equipment, depots, transport, energy and safe site access", "whyNeeded": "Parts, tools, protective gear, transport, power and safe access are needed to turn a diagnosis into a completed repair.", "ifMissing": "If any are missing, alerts pile up and the system stays unsafe even when the worker knows the answer.", "evidenceIds": [ "E05", "PC-S11", "PC-S12" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-lived-b-021", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "The worker expected to keep grids, buildings, machines and services safe over years", "triggerOrContext": "A commissioned asset enters service, fails, changes version, meets a new hazard or reaches a maintenance and renewal interval.", "plainJob": "Give me the right training, safe access, enough time and spare parts, and let me stop the system when it is dangerous.", "observableCompletion": "The worker is trained and paid, has current documentation, spares and safe access, completes maintenance within the risk window, records unresolved hazards, participates in redesign and can stop unsafe operation without retaliation.", "repeatedDemand": "Every shift, inspection, fault, update, hazard event, scheduled service, handover and renewal.", "why2031Not2026": "Maintenance is already essential, but W04 makes it a larger, recurring economic and governance centre as commissioned physical renewal expands through 2031.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "E05", "PC-S11", "PC-S12", "RSM-13", "HBD-16" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: W04 creates more long-lived equipment that needs skilled maintenance", "Industrial and medical sources show why repair and safe operation matter", "The need can arise globally wherever a commissioned system must survive years of use" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Heat, moisture, dust and distance change the repair job", "Access to parts, power and trained crews differs by region", "Local repair may be common even where official records do not record it" ], "unknowns": [ "Public total-cost and intervention data are sparse", "Training does not prove retention", "Supplier control of parts may create lock-in" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The worker has scoped stop and escalation rights; owners and statutory duty-holders retain funding and service responsibility", "remedyIfItFails": "Safe shutdown, repair, staffing, parts access, training, incident review and whistleblowing protection", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A predictive alert or automated work order cannot certify safe completion or shift liability to the maintainer." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise every fault is repairable locally", "Does not promise automation always reduces hazard", "Does not make workers responsible for unfunded systems" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Alert overload replaces maintenance", "whoIsHurt": "A maintainer flooded with warnings but given no time for planned repair", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Sort alerts by risk, schedule preventive work and stop treating closed alerts as completed maintenance" }, { "harmOrFailure": "No parts or safe access", "whoIsHurt": "A worker sent to fix equipment without the right part, tool or safe access", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Pause the job, supply approved parts and protection, and reschedule without penalising the worker" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Worker voice is ceremonial", "whoIsHurt": "A worker consulted after safety and staffing decisions are already fixed", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Give workers a paid pre-purchase review and a protected route to change or stop unsafe work" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Unsafe success is recorded as completion", "whoIsHurt": "Workers and service users when a dangerous job is recorded as a success", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Reclassify it as a failure, stop the system and reopen only after repair and independent review" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Versioned manuals, diagnostic evidence, incident and maintenance records", "whyNeeded": "Current manuals, diagnostic results and maintenance history tell the worker what changed, what failed and which repair is safe.", "ifMissing": "Without versioned information, a correct repair for yesterday's machine may be dangerous after an update.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S11", "PC-S12", "RSM-13", "HBD-16" ] }, { "dependency": "Workplace safety, training, labour voice, procurement and liability rules", "whyNeeded": "Safety, training, worker-voice, procurement and liability rules give maintainers the right to stop work and require the owner to fund safe repair.", "ifMissing": "Without these rules, a worker may be pressured to improvise while responsibility stays unclear.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-16" ] }, { "dependency": "Spares, tools, protective equipment, depots, transport, energy and safe site access", "whyNeeded": "Parts, tools, protective gear, transport, power and safe access are needed to turn a diagnosis into a completed repair.", "ifMissing": "If any are missing, alerts pile up and the system stays unsafe even when the worker knows the answer.", "evidenceIds": [ "E05", "PC-S11", "PC-S12" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-021", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-lived-b-022" ], "actorOrPerson": "Someone living beside or paying for a prepared site, grid, retrofit or climate project", "triggerOrContext": "A project needs land, access, tariff support, building changes, data or local tolerance and may alter rent, privacy, work or environmental risk.", "plainJob": "Let me see the real costs and risks, help shape the plan, say no to unsafe parts, and stay in my home if the area improves.", "observableCompletion": "Consent and alternatives are understandable; benefits, burdens, rent and tariff effects, surveillance, displacement and environmental outcomes are public; compensation, veto and appeal work before harm becomes irreversible.", "repeatedDemand": "At siting, design, permit, financing, construction change, operation review, tariff or rent change, incident and renewal.", "why2031Not2026": "Community opposition and host burden exist today; W04 assumes worker and community governance becomes normal in participating compacts by 2030-31.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "C04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: W04 brings more grids, retrofits and climate projects into people's neighbourhoods", "Global infrastructure evidence shows the scale of investment, while burdens remain local", "Residents and bill-payers need place-level evidence before and after construction" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Tenure, land rights, consent powers and utility rules differ locally", "Water use, rent change and tariff effects vary by project", "Who can speak for an affected community must be established in that place" ], "unknowns": [ "Representation may exclude affected subgroups", "Compensation may not equal consent", "Measured benefits may arrive after displacement" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Workers, tenants, communities, utilities and planning bodies through defined contract, permit and legal routes", "remedyIfItFails": "Redesign, conditions, compensation, anti-displacement action, data limits, appeal, pause or veto where authorised", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Participation does not transfer public safety duties to residents or make consultation equal consent." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise unanimous agreement", "Does not promise zero construction impact", "Does not equate a meeting with voice or legitimacy" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Green displacement", "whoIsHurt": "Renters or low-income residents displaced by a project meant to protect the area", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Add anti-displacement terms, stop avoidable eviction and provide fair return or relocation choices" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Prepared-site surveillance", "whoIsHurt": "Residents whose movement, home or habits are tracked around a new site", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Limit collection, publish purpose and retention, and delete data not needed for safety" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Ratepayer cost transfer", "whoIsHurt": "Households charged for infrastructure mainly benefiting a private project", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Review the bill, refund unfair transfers and require the main beneficiary to pay" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Consultation after decisions are locked", "whoIsHurt": "People invited to comment only after money, land and design are fixed", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Reopen the decision, fund independent advice and allow pause or veto where the law gives that power" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Accessible plans, burden and outcome evidence", "whyNeeded": "Accessible plans and cost, burden and outcome records let residents see who benefits, who pays and whether promised protection arrives.", "ifMissing": "Without this evidence, displacement, water use or bill increases can remain hidden until the decision is hard to reverse.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "PC-S02" ] }, { "dependency": "Tenant, utility, planning, environmental, privacy, labour and consent routes", "whyNeeded": "Tenant, utility, planning, environmental, privacy and consent routes give affected people a lawful way to change, appeal or sometimes stop a plan.", "ifMissing": "Without an effective route, consultation collects comments but cannot protect homes, bills, land or personal data.", "evidenceIds": [ "C04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ] }, { "dependency": "Land, buildings, water, grids, access roads, construction and long-term maintenance", "whyNeeded": "Land, buildings, water, grids, roads, construction and maintenance are the physical footprint that creates both the benefit and the burden.", "ifMissing": "Without long-term upkeep and safe access, the community can keep the disruption after the promised service fails.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "C04" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-lived-b-022", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "Someone living beside or paying for a prepared site, grid, retrofit or climate project", "triggerOrContext": "A project needs land, access, tariff support, building changes, data or local tolerance and may alter rent, privacy, work or environmental risk.", "plainJob": "Let me see the real costs and risks, help shape the plan, say no to unsafe parts, and stay in my home if the area improves.", "observableCompletion": "Consent and alternatives are understandable; benefits, burdens, rent and tariff effects, surveillance, displacement and environmental outcomes are public; compensation, veto and appeal work before harm becomes irreversible.", "repeatedDemand": "At siting, design, permit, financing, construction change, operation review, tariff or rent change, incident and renewal.", "why2031Not2026": "Community opposition and host burden exist today; W04 assumes worker and community governance becomes normal in participating compacts by 2030-31.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "C04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: W04 brings more grids, retrofits and climate projects into people's neighbourhoods", "Global infrastructure evidence shows the scale of investment, while burdens remain local", "Residents and bill-payers need place-level evidence before and after construction" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Tenure, land rights, consent powers and utility rules differ locally", "Water use, rent change and tariff effects vary by project", "Who can speak for an affected community must be established in that place" ], "unknowns": [ "Representation may exclude affected subgroups", "Compensation may not equal consent", "Measured benefits may arrive after displacement" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Workers, tenants, communities, utilities and planning bodies through defined contract, permit and legal routes", "remedyIfItFails": "Redesign, conditions, compensation, anti-displacement action, data limits, appeal, pause or veto where authorised", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Participation does not transfer public safety duties to residents or make consultation equal consent." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise unanimous agreement", "Does not promise zero construction impact", "Does not equate a meeting with voice or legitimacy" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Green displacement", "whoIsHurt": "Renters or low-income residents displaced by a project meant to protect the area", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Add anti-displacement terms, stop avoidable eviction and provide fair return or relocation choices" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Prepared-site surveillance", "whoIsHurt": "Residents whose movement, home or habits are tracked around a new site", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Limit collection, publish purpose and retention, and delete data not needed for safety" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Ratepayer cost transfer", "whoIsHurt": "Households charged for infrastructure mainly benefiting a private project", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Review the bill, refund unfair transfers and require the main beneficiary to pay" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Consultation after decisions are locked", "whoIsHurt": "People invited to comment only after money, land and design are fixed", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Reopen the decision, fund independent advice and allow pause or veto where the law gives that power" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Accessible plans, burden and outcome evidence", "whyNeeded": "Accessible plans and cost, burden and outcome records let residents see who benefits, who pays and whether promised protection arrives.", "ifMissing": "Without this evidence, displacement, water use or bill increases can remain hidden until the decision is hard to reverse.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "PC-S02" ] }, { "dependency": "Tenant, utility, planning, environmental, privacy, labour and consent routes", "whyNeeded": "Tenant, utility, planning, environmental, privacy and consent routes give affected people a lawful way to change, appeal or sometimes stop a plan.", "ifMissing": "Without an effective route, consultation collects comments but cannot protect homes, bills, land or personal data.", "evidenceIds": [ "C04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ] }, { "dependency": "Land, buildings, water, grids, access roads, construction and long-term maintenance", "whyNeeded": "Land, buildings, water, grids, roads, construction and maintenance are the physical footprint that creates both the benefit and the burden.", "ifMissing": "Without long-term upkeep and safe access, the community can keep the disruption after the promised service fails.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "C04" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-022", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-lived-b-023" ], "actorOrPerson": "The local operator who can keep a system working but cannot absorb incumbent-scale certification cost", "triggerOrContext": "An installation needs local adaptation, routine maintenance, emergency repair or a replacement supplier after the original provider fails or exits.", "plainJob": "Give me a fair way to prove I can repair this safely, get the parts and instructions, and be paid for keeping it working.", "observableCompletion": "The operator can access necessary manuals, diagnostics and parts, complete affordable conformance and retest, receive timely payment, and document safe repair accepted by the responsible authority.", "repeatedDemand": "At each new asset, certification cycle, fault, part change, software update, contract renewal and emergency repair.", "why2031Not2026": "Standards and repair gates exist today; W04 makes locally maintained renewal and regional assurance a core 2031 delivery condition.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "PC-S11", "PC-S12", "RSM-13", "HBD-16" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: W04 depends on local repair when distant suppliers cannot respond fast enough", "Robot evidence comes mainly from controlled industrial sites", "Rural, island and remote areas may feel parts and travel delays most strongly" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Certification cost and repair rights differ by country and sector", "A workshop with tools and power can do more than one without them", "Local skill and safety must be shown for the actual machine and task" ], "unknowns": [ "Open standards may not open parts or diagnostics", "Local repair quality needs domain evidence", "Certification cost and recognition data are sparse" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Sector safety, accreditation and asset duty-holders recognise scoped competence", "remedyIfItFails": "Data and parts access, assisted conformance, retest, fair payment, contract appeal and emergency authorisation within law", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Right-to-repair access does not authorise work outside competence or remove safety, warranty and environmental duties." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise every asset is locally repairable", "Does not lower safe-work requirements", "Does not assume informal means unsafe" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Parts and data lock-in strand assets", "whoIsHurt": "Communities left with unusable equipment because parts and diagnostic data are locked", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Require parts and manual access, authorise a safe local repair and recover costs from the responsible supplier" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Paper compliance excludes capable local workers", "whoIsHurt": "Capable local workers excluded by costly paperwork unrelated to the actual risk", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Offer assisted practical testing, transparent fees and an appeal without lowering safety standards" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Unsafe counterfeit supply enters a closed market", "whoIsHurt": "Repairers and users exposed to unsafe copied parts created by a closed supply route", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Open a verified parts channel, test suspect parts and recall dangerous stock" }, { "harmOrFailure": "External projects fail after vendor exit", "whoIsHurt": "Residents relying on a project after the outside vendor leaves", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Transfer manuals, tools and service rights locally, fund continuity and replace equipment that cannot be supported" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Diagnostics, manuals, parts identity and repair evidence", "whyNeeded": "Diagnostics, manuals, part identities and repair records let a local operator find the fault and prove a safe fix.", "ifMissing": "Without this information, good parts cannot be distinguished from unsafe copies and working equipment may be abandoned.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S11", "PC-S12", "RSM-13" ] }, { "dependency": "Standards, accreditation, procurement, competition, warranty and repair rights", "whyNeeded": "Standards, repair, warranty and competition rules create a lawful route to parts, testing, payment and appeal for smaller operators.", "ifMissing": "Without an affordable route, only the incumbent can qualify even when a local worker can perform the repair safely.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "HBD-16" ] }, { "dependency": "Parts, tools, workshops, transport, power and safe access", "whyNeeded": "Parts, tools, workshops, transport, power and site access are what let local knowledge become an actual repair.", "ifMissing": "Without them, certification or a manual does not restore a stranded machine or service.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S11", "PC-S12" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-lived-b-023", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "The local operator who can keep a system working but cannot absorb incumbent-scale certification cost", "triggerOrContext": "An installation needs local adaptation, routine maintenance, emergency repair or a replacement supplier after the original provider fails or exits.", "plainJob": "Give me a fair way to prove I can repair this safely, get the parts and instructions, and be paid for keeping it working.", "observableCompletion": "The operator can access necessary manuals, diagnostics and parts, complete affordable conformance and retest, receive timely payment, and document safe repair accepted by the responsible authority.", "repeatedDemand": "At each new asset, certification cycle, fault, part change, software update, contract renewal and emergency repair.", "why2031Not2026": "Standards and repair gates exist today; W04 makes locally maintained renewal and regional assurance a core 2031 delivery condition.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "PC-S11", "PC-S12", "RSM-13", "HBD-16" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: W04 depends on local repair when distant suppliers cannot respond fast enough", "Robot evidence comes mainly from controlled industrial sites", "Rural, island and remote areas may feel parts and travel delays most strongly" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Certification cost and repair rights differ by country and sector", "A workshop with tools and power can do more than one without them", "Local skill and safety must be shown for the actual machine and task" ], "unknowns": [ "Open standards may not open parts or diagnostics", "Local repair quality needs domain evidence", "Certification cost and recognition data are sparse" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Sector safety, accreditation and asset duty-holders recognise scoped competence", "remedyIfItFails": "Data and parts access, assisted conformance, retest, fair payment, contract appeal and emergency authorisation within law", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Right-to-repair access does not authorise work outside competence or remove safety, warranty and environmental duties." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise every asset is locally repairable", "Does not lower safe-work requirements", "Does not assume informal means unsafe" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Parts and data lock-in strand assets", "whoIsHurt": "Communities left with unusable equipment because parts and diagnostic data are locked", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Require parts and manual access, authorise a safe local repair and recover costs from the responsible supplier" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Paper compliance excludes capable local workers", "whoIsHurt": "Capable local workers excluded by costly paperwork unrelated to the actual risk", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Offer assisted practical testing, transparent fees and an appeal without lowering safety standards" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Unsafe counterfeit supply enters a closed market", "whoIsHurt": "Repairers and users exposed to unsafe copied parts created by a closed supply route", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Open a verified parts channel, test suspect parts and recall dangerous stock" }, { "harmOrFailure": "External projects fail after vendor exit", "whoIsHurt": "Residents relying on a project after the outside vendor leaves", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Transfer manuals, tools and service rights locally, fund continuity and replace equipment that cannot be supported" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Diagnostics, manuals, parts identity and repair evidence", "whyNeeded": "Diagnostics, manuals, part identities and repair records let a local operator find the fault and prove a safe fix.", "ifMissing": "Without this information, good parts cannot be distinguished from unsafe copies and working equipment may be abandoned.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S11", "PC-S12", "RSM-13" ] }, { "dependency": "Standards, accreditation, procurement, competition, warranty and repair rights", "whyNeeded": "Standards, repair, warranty and competition rules create a lawful route to parts, testing, payment and appeal for smaller operators.", "ifMissing": "Without an affordable route, only the incumbent can qualify even when a local worker can perform the repair safely.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "HBD-16" ] }, { "dependency": "Parts, tools, workshops, transport, power and safe access", "whyNeeded": "Parts, tools, workshops, transport, power and site access are what let local knowledge become an actual repair.", "ifMissing": "Without them, certification or a manual does not restore a stranded machine or service.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S11", "PC-S12" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-023", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-lived-b-024" ], "actorOrPerson": "Someone using disclosed relational assistance to translate, rehearse, remember or navigate", "triggerOrContext": "Language, disability, anxiety, distance, scheduling or unfamiliar rules make a staffed service or group hard to reach.", "plainJob": "Help me understand what to do and introduce me to the right real person or group, without pretending the digital helper is them.", "observableCompletion": "The person reaches the chosen staffed service or reciprocal group, understands disclosure and limits, controls memory, can use a non-digital route, and reports whether the bridge helped; failed handoffs are recorded.", "repeatedDemand": "At each new service, appointment, lesson, repair request, community event, memory decision and failed referral.", "why2031Not2026": "Current evidence supports mixed short-term help and harm; W04's 2031 distinction is that procurement retains staff and measures whether the relational layer routes people into them.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s22" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Social-connection evidence frames a worldwide issue", "Online relationship studies are narrow and cannot stand for all communities", "Scenario possibility: W04 buys digital help only when it leads to a staffed human service" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Language, culture, disability and trust shape whether the bridge works", "A referral is useful only where staff and transport exist", "Health, school and community rules differ by country" ], "unknowns": [ "Short studies cannot establish durable bridge effects", "Online community types have mixed consequences", "A referral may coexist with reduced reciprocal contact" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The person chooses use and memory; named human service and community duty-holders own consequential decisions", "remedyIfItFails": "Human handoff, correction, memory control, non-digital route and service complaint", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Relational assistance is not friendship, treatment, teaching, professional judgement or community legitimacy." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise belonging", "Does not promise treatment or learning", "Does not claim every online group is beneficial" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "A polished referral reaches no staff", "whoIsHurt": "A person referred to a clinic, school or service with no available staff", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep the original route open, find a staffed alternative and confirm that a human accepted the handoff" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Memory becomes surveillance", "whoIsHurt": "A person whose translation or reminder history is reused to monitor them", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Stop reuse, delete or export memory and provide the same service without hidden tracking" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Synthetic attention replaces contact", "whoIsHurt": "An isolated person whose digital bridge becomes a replacement for real contact", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Limit endless engagement, offer repeated routes to people and ask whether reciprocal contact grew" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Crisis escalation fails", "whoIsHurt": "A person in danger when the promised escalation never reaches help", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Contact a staffed emergency route, confirm receipt and review the failure before the system returns" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Disclosure, accessible translation, memory controls and verified handoff", "whyNeeded": "Clear disclosure, usable translation, memory controls and a verified handoff help a person understand the tool, correct it and reach a human.", "ifMissing": "Without these features, a wrong translation can travel onward and a referral may disappear without anyone taking the case.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Data, safeguarding, accessibility, health, education and service duties", "whyNeeded": "Data, safeguarding, accessibility, health and education duties protect the person and keep professional decisions with accountable staff.", "ifMissing": "Without these duties, convenience can replace consent, access or qualified judgement.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Staffed clinics, schools, repair services, meeting places, transport and offline access", "whyNeeded": "Clinics, schools, repair services, meeting places, transport and offline access are the human destinations promised by the digital bridge.", "ifMissing": "If those destinations lack staff or cannot be reached, the bridge becomes a dead end.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "horizon.education-social-culture.s22" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-lived-b-024", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "Someone using disclosed relational assistance to translate, rehearse, remember or navigate", "triggerOrContext": "Language, disability, anxiety, distance, scheduling or unfamiliar rules make a staffed service or group hard to reach.", "plainJob": "Help me understand what to do and introduce me to the right real person or group, without pretending the digital helper is them.", "observableCompletion": "The person reaches the chosen staffed service or reciprocal group, understands disclosure and limits, controls memory, can use a non-digital route, and reports whether the bridge helped; failed handoffs are recorded.", "repeatedDemand": "At each new service, appointment, lesson, repair request, community event, memory decision and failed referral.", "why2031Not2026": "Current evidence supports mixed short-term help and harm; W04's 2031 distinction is that procurement retains staff and measures whether the relational layer routes people into them.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s22" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Social-connection evidence frames a worldwide issue", "Online relationship studies are narrow and cannot stand for all communities", "Scenario possibility: W04 buys digital help only when it leads to a staffed human service" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Language, culture, disability and trust shape whether the bridge works", "A referral is useful only where staff and transport exist", "Health, school and community rules differ by country" ], "unknowns": [ "Short studies cannot establish durable bridge effects", "Online community types have mixed consequences", "A referral may coexist with reduced reciprocal contact" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The person chooses use and memory; named human service and community duty-holders own consequential decisions", "remedyIfItFails": "Human handoff, correction, memory control, non-digital route and service complaint", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Relational assistance is not friendship, treatment, teaching, professional judgement or community legitimacy." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise belonging", "Does not promise treatment or learning", "Does not claim every online group is beneficial" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "A polished referral reaches no staff", "whoIsHurt": "A person referred to a clinic, school or service with no available staff", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep the original route open, find a staffed alternative and confirm that a human accepted the handoff" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Memory becomes surveillance", "whoIsHurt": "A person whose translation or reminder history is reused to monitor them", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Stop reuse, delete or export memory and provide the same service without hidden tracking" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Synthetic attention replaces contact", "whoIsHurt": "An isolated person whose digital bridge becomes a replacement for real contact", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Limit endless engagement, offer repeated routes to people and ask whether reciprocal contact grew" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Crisis escalation fails", "whoIsHurt": "A person in danger when the promised escalation never reaches help", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Contact a staffed emergency route, confirm receipt and review the failure before the system returns" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Disclosure, accessible translation, memory controls and verified handoff", "whyNeeded": "Clear disclosure, usable translation, memory controls and a verified handoff help a person understand the tool, correct it and reach a human.", "ifMissing": "Without these features, a wrong translation can travel onward and a referral may disappear without anyone taking the case.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Data, safeguarding, accessibility, health, education and service duties", "whyNeeded": "Data, safeguarding, accessibility, health and education duties protect the person and keep professional decisions with accountable staff.", "ifMissing": "Without these duties, convenience can replace consent, access or qualified judgement.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Staffed clinics, schools, repair services, meeting places, transport and offline access", "whyNeeded": "Clinics, schools, repair services, meeting places, transport and offline access are the human destinations promised by the digital bridge.", "ifMissing": "If those destinations lack staff or cannot be reached, the bridge becomes a dead end.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "horizon.education-social-culture.s22" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-024", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-lived-b-025" ], "actorOrPerson": "The worker whose judgement and relationship make a renewed service usable", "triggerOrContext": "A buyer proposes a planning, monitoring or support system that changes staffing, workload, privacy, judgement or handoff.", "plainJob": "Let me test the change, protect the people I support, stop unsafe use and keep enough time for the human part of my job.", "observableCompletion": "Workers are paid to take part before adoption. They can redesign or stop unsafe uses, keep the judgement their role requires, and review workload, staffing, privacy, injury and service results after launch.", "repeatedDemand": "At design, procurement, pilot, staffing change, incident, model update, contract review and renewal.", "why2031Not2026": "Worker consultation exists unevenly now. W04 assumes that by 2031 it becomes a normal part of buying and running labour-using public systems; the assigned sources do not prove how this works for informal or migrant workers.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "HBD-16", "RSM-13", "SC-G05", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: W04 gives workers an earlier say in tools that change public and frontline services", "The assigned evidence covers workforce capacity, safety and service quality", "It does not directly measure voice for informal or migrant workers" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Consultation and bargaining rights differ by country and sector", "Care, teaching and maintenance teams need different kinds of judgement", "A worker cannot exercise a stop right where staffing or legal protection is missing" ], "unknowns": [ "The assigned evidence does not directly measure voice for informal or migrant workers", "Formal consultation may happen too late to change the purchase", "More staff does not by itself prove fair pay, enough time or real authority" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Workers hold scoped professional and stop-work authority; employers, commissioners and regulators retain funding and legal responsibility", "remedyIfItFails": "Redesign, staffing correction, data limits, safe shutdown, grievance, whistleblowing and contract enforcement", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Participation does not transfer institutional liability to frontline workers or require them to accept surveillance." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise consensus", "Does not promise automation improves work", "Does not make human warmth an unfunded requirement" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Voice arrives after purchase", "whoIsHurt": "Workers and service users when consultation begins after an irreversible purchase", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Pause rollout, fund worker testing and reopen contract terms that affect safety, staffing or judgement" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Administration falls but surveillance rises", "whoIsHurt": "A worker whose paperwork falls but whose every action becomes tracked", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Remove unnecessary monitoring, give access to collected data and allow a privacy challenge" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Relational time is cut", "whoIsHurt": "Patients, pupils or residents and the worker supporting them when face-to-face time is cut", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Protect enough human time for safe care or teaching, correct staffing and let the supported person report the effect" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Professional judgement is overridden by an opaque automated judgement", "whoIsHurt": "A worker and service user harmed when a hidden model overrules professional judgement", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Show the reason, allow a protected override and send disputed cases to an accountable human reviewer" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Worker-visible evidence, override, audit and workload measurement", "whyNeeded": "Worker-visible evidence, override records and workload measures show what the tool changed and whether human rescue or pressure increased.", "ifMissing": "Without a shared record, management can claim efficiency while workers and service users absorb hidden harm.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-16", "RSM-13" ] }, { "dependency": "Collective, professional, safety, privacy, procurement and whistleblowing rights", "whyNeeded": "Collective, professional, safety, privacy and whistleblowing rights let workers challenge surveillance and stop unsafe use without retaliation.", "ifMissing": "Without protected authority, consultation is only advice that a buyer can ignore after purchase.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-16", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ] }, { "dependency": "Adequate staffing, safe workplaces, time, equipment and meeting capacity", "whyNeeded": "Enough staff, time, safe space and equipment let workers use judgement and maintain the relationship the service depends on.", "ifMissing": "Without these basics, an override button cannot create the time or capacity needed to act on it.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-lived-b-025", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "The worker whose judgement and relationship make a renewed service usable", "triggerOrContext": "A buyer proposes a planning, monitoring or support system that changes staffing, workload, privacy, judgement or handoff.", "plainJob": "Let me test the change, protect the people I support, stop unsafe use and keep enough time for the human part of my job.", "observableCompletion": "Workers are paid to take part before adoption. They can redesign or stop unsafe uses, keep the judgement their role requires, and review workload, staffing, privacy, injury and service results after launch.", "repeatedDemand": "At design, procurement, pilot, staffing change, incident, model update, contract review and renewal.", "why2031Not2026": "Worker consultation exists unevenly now. W04 assumes that by 2031 it becomes a normal part of buying and running labour-using public systems; the assigned sources do not prove how this works for informal or migrant workers.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "HBD-16", "RSM-13", "SC-G05", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: W04 gives workers an earlier say in tools that change public and frontline services", "The assigned evidence covers workforce capacity, safety and service quality", "It does not directly measure voice for informal or migrant workers" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Consultation and bargaining rights differ by country and sector", "Care, teaching and maintenance teams need different kinds of judgement", "A worker cannot exercise a stop right where staffing or legal protection is missing" ], "unknowns": [ "The assigned evidence does not directly measure voice for informal or migrant workers", "Formal consultation may happen too late to change the purchase", "More staff does not by itself prove fair pay, enough time or real authority" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Workers hold scoped professional and stop-work authority; employers, commissioners and regulators retain funding and legal responsibility", "remedyIfItFails": "Redesign, staffing correction, data limits, safe shutdown, grievance, whistleblowing and contract enforcement", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Participation does not transfer institutional liability to frontline workers or require them to accept surveillance." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise consensus", "Does not promise automation improves work", "Does not make human warmth an unfunded requirement" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Voice arrives after purchase", "whoIsHurt": "Workers and service users when consultation begins after an irreversible purchase", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Pause rollout, fund worker testing and reopen contract terms that affect safety, staffing or judgement" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Administration falls but surveillance rises", "whoIsHurt": "A worker whose paperwork falls but whose every action becomes tracked", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Remove unnecessary monitoring, give access to collected data and allow a privacy challenge" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Relational time is cut", "whoIsHurt": "Patients, pupils or residents and the worker supporting them when face-to-face time is cut", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Protect enough human time for safe care or teaching, correct staffing and let the supported person report the effect" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Professional judgement is overridden by an opaque automated judgement", "whoIsHurt": "A worker and service user harmed when a hidden model overrules professional judgement", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Show the reason, allow a protected override and send disputed cases to an accountable human reviewer" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Worker-visible evidence, override, audit and workload measurement", "whyNeeded": "Worker-visible evidence, override records and workload measures show what the tool changed and whether human rescue or pressure increased.", "ifMissing": "Without a shared record, management can claim efficiency while workers and service users absorb hidden harm.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-16", "RSM-13" ] }, { "dependency": "Collective, professional, safety, privacy, procurement and whistleblowing rights", "whyNeeded": "Collective, professional, safety, privacy and whistleblowing rights let workers challenge surveillance and stop unsafe use without retaliation.", "ifMissing": "Without protected authority, consultation is only advice that a buyer can ignore after purchase.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-16", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ] }, { "dependency": "Adequate staffing, safe workplaces, time, equipment and meeting capacity", "whyNeeded": "Enough staff, time, safe space and equipment let workers use judgement and maintain the relationship the service depends on.", "ifMissing": "Without these basics, an override button cannot create the time or capacity needed to act on it.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-025", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-lived-b-026" ], "actorOrPerson": "A young person or career changer learning a trade, care, teaching, logistics or maintenance role", "triggerOrContext": "A regional compact creates demand for grid, building, climate, care, teaching, logistics or maintenance work and opens a supervised entry route.", "plainJob": "Let me practise safely with a real mentor, get paid, prove what I can do, and become part of a team without being treated as cheap labour.", "observableCompletion": "The learner completes paid supervised practice, demonstrates retained safe skill, progresses to a recognised next step, has a named mentor and grievance route, and separately reports routine, contribution and belonging without those being inferred from attendance.", "repeatedDemand": "Every placement, task expansion, assessment, team change, credential step and move between regions or employers.", "why2031Not2026": "Current evidence shows learning and task-exposure signals, not a scaled labour-using renewal settlement; this recurring pathway exists only if W04 commissions and maintains demand through 2031.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s05", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "OECD evidence and one Nigeria trial describe different learning settings", "A 22-country study observes belonging but does not prove that work causes it", "Scenario possibility: W04 creates more paid routes into maintenance, care, teaching and logistics" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Apprenticeship pay, safety rules and recognised trades differ by country", "Demand for each skill will vary by region", "Mentors, workshops, transport and suitable placements may be scarce" ], "unknowns": [ "Commissioned demand may be regionally uneven", "Belonging is not caused by employment alone", "Mentor and rural placement capacity is unresolved" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Accredited trainers, employers and professional or safety bodies assess skill; the learner chooses participation", "remedyIfItFails": "Paid catch-up, reassessment, safe-task restriction, mentor change, portable recognition and labour grievance", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Employment, attendance, a credential or community participation cannot guarantee friendship, belonging, purpose or legitimacy." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise permanent employment", "Does not promise belonging", "Does not treat dangerous or underpaid work as meaningful by default" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Apprentices replace paid staff", "whoIsHurt": "A learner used as cheap labour instead of receiving instruction", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Pay the learner, restore protected teaching time and remove tasks that do not build the agreed skill" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Automation removes practice opportunities", "whoIsHurt": "A learner who cannot gain skill because software now performs every beginner task", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Create supervised practice or simulation and assess the person doing the real task safely" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Unsafe work is framed as character building", "whoIsHurt": "A learner exposed to danger under the label of building resilience", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Stop the task, investigate, pay for recovery and restrict work until training and equipment are adequate" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Team inclusion is inferred rather than heard from the learner", "whoIsHurt": "A learner who is marked as included even though the team shuts them out", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Ask the learner privately, change the mentor or team and review progress after the move" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Authentic assessment, task and safety records, portable recognition", "whyNeeded": "Practical assessment and task-safety records show what the learner performed, under what conditions, and carry the proof to another employer.", "ifMissing": "Without authentic records, generated work may pass as skill or real progress may be lost when the learner moves.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s05" ] }, { "dependency": "Apprenticeship, wage, safety, accreditation, equality and grievance rules", "whyNeeded": "Apprenticeship, wage, safety, equality and grievance rules make practice paid, safe and open to challenge.", "ifMissing": "Without them, a learning route can become cheap labour, discrimination or dangerous work with no remedy.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ] }, { "dependency": "Mentors, workshops, placements, safe equipment, transport and commissioned work", "whyNeeded": "Mentors, workshops, placements, safe equipment, transport and real commissioned work provide repeated practice and feedback.", "ifMissing": "If these are missing, learners can collect lessons and credentials without becoming ready for the job.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s05" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-lived-b-026", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "A young person or career changer learning a trade, care, teaching, logistics or maintenance role", "triggerOrContext": "A regional compact creates demand for grid, building, climate, care, teaching, logistics or maintenance work and opens a supervised entry route.", "plainJob": "Let me practise safely with a real mentor, get paid, prove what I can do, and become part of a team without being treated as cheap labour.", "observableCompletion": "The learner completes paid supervised practice, demonstrates retained safe skill, progresses to a recognised next step, has a named mentor and grievance route, and separately reports routine, contribution and belonging without those being inferred from attendance.", "repeatedDemand": "Every placement, task expansion, assessment, team change, credential step and move between regions or employers.", "why2031Not2026": "Current evidence shows learning and task-exposure signals, not a scaled labour-using renewal settlement; this recurring pathway exists only if W04 commissions and maintains demand through 2031.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s05", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "OECD evidence and one Nigeria trial describe different learning settings", "A 22-country study observes belonging but does not prove that work causes it", "Scenario possibility: W04 creates more paid routes into maintenance, care, teaching and logistics" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Apprenticeship pay, safety rules and recognised trades differ by country", "Demand for each skill will vary by region", "Mentors, workshops, transport and suitable placements may be scarce" ], "unknowns": [ "Commissioned demand may be regionally uneven", "Belonging is not caused by employment alone", "Mentor and rural placement capacity is unresolved" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Accredited trainers, employers and professional or safety bodies assess skill; the learner chooses participation", "remedyIfItFails": "Paid catch-up, reassessment, safe-task restriction, mentor change, portable recognition and labour grievance", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Employment, attendance, a credential or community participation cannot guarantee friendship, belonging, purpose or legitimacy." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise permanent employment", "Does not promise belonging", "Does not treat dangerous or underpaid work as meaningful by default" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Apprentices replace paid staff", "whoIsHurt": "A learner used as cheap labour instead of receiving instruction", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Pay the learner, restore protected teaching time and remove tasks that do not build the agreed skill" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Automation removes practice opportunities", "whoIsHurt": "A learner who cannot gain skill because software now performs every beginner task", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Create supervised practice or simulation and assess the person doing the real task safely" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Unsafe work is framed as character building", "whoIsHurt": "A learner exposed to danger under the label of building resilience", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Stop the task, investigate, pay for recovery and restrict work until training and equipment are adequate" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Team inclusion is inferred rather than heard from the learner", "whoIsHurt": "A learner who is marked as included even though the team shuts them out", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Ask the learner privately, change the mentor or team and review progress after the move" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Authentic assessment, task and safety records, portable recognition", "whyNeeded": "Practical assessment and task-safety records show what the learner performed, under what conditions, and carry the proof to another employer.", "ifMissing": "Without authentic records, generated work may pass as skill or real progress may be lost when the learner moves.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s05" ] }, { "dependency": "Apprenticeship, wage, safety, accreditation, equality and grievance rules", "whyNeeded": "Apprenticeship, wage, safety, equality and grievance rules make practice paid, safe and open to challenge.", "ifMissing": "Without them, a learning route can become cheap labour, discrimination or dangerous work with no remedy.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ] }, { "dependency": "Mentors, workshops, placements, safe equipment, transport and commissioned work", "whyNeeded": "Mentors, workshops, placements, safe equipment, transport and real commissioned work provide repeated practice and feedback.", "ifMissing": "If these are missing, learners can collect lessons and credentials without becoming ready for the job.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s05" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-026", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-lived-w05-01" ], "actorOrPerson": "Resident, patient, learner or carer inside or outside a protected corridor", "triggerOrContext": "Power, communications, cloud, water, heat, health, education, ID or logistics fail together for hours or days and service return is unequal by place.", "plainJob": "When several basic services fail at once, help me keep the people I am responsible for safe and find what still works without assuming my phone, account or main network is available.", "observableCompletion": "During a test or real event, a person reaches water, urgent care, shelter or heat safety through a backup route. Show the result and service return by place and at-risk group. If a digital step fails, staff, radio, paper or in-person contact takes over.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns during every compound incident, seasonal hazard, displacement episode and service return handoff because dependencies and staff change.", "why2031Not2026": "By 2031 W05 has repeated coupled shocks and corridor hardening; current sources show cascades and uneven staff and tools but not a universal settled pattern.", "worldIds": [ "w05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s43", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s45", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52", "C01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Every region exposed to linked power, communication and public-service failure", "Conflict, island, remote and places with few staff and tools with slower service return" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Local backup routes, hazards and staffing vary sharply", "Protected corridors and exposed places may sit inside the same country" ], "unknowns": [ "Which shocks align and how long they last remain unresolved", "One conflict demonstrates a cascade mechanism rather than worldwide incidence" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Utilities, crisis teams, local public bodies and staffed services can restore and route key help.", "remedyIfItFails": "People need an urgent human fix, local help, a safe second route and later review of missed groups.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "An outage does not authorise unlimited surveillance, forced ID linkage or indefinite crisis control." } ], "nonPromises": [ "No route promises uninterrupted service or physical safety.", "An alert or declared resilience plan is not completed service backup." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "False reassurance delays evacuation, care or the search for water and shelter.", "whoIsHurt": "Residents with urgent health, care or mobility needs are hurt first.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Verified local status and a staffed exception route must replace unsupported reassurance." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Protected corridors divert staff and fuel from exposed places.", "whoIsHurt": "Remote, displaced and low-income communities wait longer for key service.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Visible service return outcomes and public priority review must expose and correct the gap." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tested failover and clear dependency maps", "whyNeeded": "People need a route that survives the same linked failure as the main service.", "ifMissing": "Every stated fallback disappears with power, ID or network loss.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s43", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s45" ] }, { "dependency": "Key-service duties and urgent human fix", "whyNeeded": "A person needs responsible help when an automated route fails.", "ifMissing": "A technical fault blocks key support with no way to review it.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] }, { "dependency": "Power, water, safe sites, staff and transport", "whyNeeded": "The lived outcome depends on physical service, not information alone.", "ifMissing": "Accurate guidance cannot keep a person safe.", "evidenceIds": [ "C01", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-lived-w05-01", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "Resident, patient, learner or carer inside or outside a protected corridor", "triggerOrContext": "Power, communications, cloud, water, heat, health, education, ID or logistics fail together for hours or days and service return is unequal by place.", "plainJob": "When several basic services fail at once, help me keep the people I am responsible for safe and find what still works without assuming my phone, account or main network is available.", "observableCompletion": "During a test or real event, a person reaches water, urgent care, shelter or heat safety through a backup route. Show the result and service return by place and at-risk group. If a digital step fails, staff, radio, paper or in-person contact takes over.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns during every compound incident, seasonal hazard, displacement episode and service return handoff because dependencies and staff change.", "why2031Not2026": "By 2031 W05 has repeated coupled shocks and corridor hardening; current sources show cascades and uneven staff and tools but not a universal settled pattern.", "worldIds": [ "W05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s43", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s45", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52", "C01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Every region exposed to linked power, communication and public-service failure", "Conflict, island, remote and places with few staff and tools with slower service return" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Local backup routes, hazards and staffing vary sharply", "Protected corridors and exposed places may sit inside the same country" ], "unknowns": [ "Which shocks align and how long they last remain unresolved", "One conflict demonstrates a cascade mechanism rather than worldwide incidence" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Utilities, crisis teams, local public bodies and staffed services can restore and route key help.", "remedyIfItFails": "People need an urgent human fix, local help, a safe second route and later review of missed groups.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "An outage does not authorise unlimited surveillance, forced ID linkage or indefinite crisis control." }, "nonPromises": [ "No route promises uninterrupted service or physical safety.", "An alert or declared resilience plan is not completed service backup." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "False reassurance delays evacuation, care or the search for water and shelter.", "whoIsHurt": "Residents with urgent health, care or mobility needs are hurt first.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Verified local status and a staffed exception route must replace unsupported reassurance." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Protected corridors divert staff and fuel from exposed places.", "whoIsHurt": "Remote, displaced and low-income communities wait longer for key service.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Visible service return outcomes and public priority review must expose and correct the gap." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tested failover and clear dependency maps", "whyNeeded": "People need a route that survives the same linked failure as the main service.", "ifMissing": "Every stated fallback disappears with power, ID or network loss.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s43", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s45" ] }, { "dependency": "Key-service duties and urgent human fix", "whyNeeded": "A person needs responsible help when an automated route fails.", "ifMissing": "A technical fault blocks key support with no way to review it.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] }, { "dependency": "Power, water, safe sites, staff and transport", "whyNeeded": "The lived outcome depends on physical service, not information alone.", "ifMissing": "Accurate guidance cannot keep a person safe.", "evidenceIds": [ "C01", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-027", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-lived-w05-02" ], "actorOrPerson": "Displaced, document-poor, disabled, older or cross-border person with a failed record", "triggerOrContext": "A service, border or exchange route requires an ID record that is offline, lost, compromised, inconsistent across places or tied to an inaccessible device.", "plainJob": "When the system says it cannot prove who I am, let me keep urgent rights and correct the record through a person without asking me to use the same broken proof again.", "observableCompletion": "Urgent health, shelter, food, learning or family access stays open under a recorded exception while ID is checked. The person can offer other proof and see disputed facts. A person then makes the choice and explains any fix or appeal result.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns at every renewal, device loss, data mismatch, displacement, border crossing, cyber incident and linked-service denial.", "why2031Not2026": "Current ID and wallet sources show large gaps and staged legal intent. W05 makes the need for human fixes recur because integrated ID can spread denial across corridors by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "w05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15", "HBD-13" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Borders, conflict settings and services using remote-first ID", "Health, learning and exchange routes linked to one record" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Acceptance, fix law and staffed access differ by place", "Device, address and document access vary by age, disability and displacement" ], "unknowns": [ "Staged wallet and health-data law does not establish usable recovery", "Local appeal and record acceptance still work unevenly" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Public and service bodies can decide legal ID and service access through a human fix process.", "remedyIfItFails": "The person needs urgent document-light access, disputed-fact visibility, fix and outside appeal.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Providers lack power to grant citizenship, legal status or linked rights through a confidence measure." } ], "nonPromises": [ "A record does not promise service access or acceptance in another place.", "Document-light access does not erase later lawful verification." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "One mismatch spreads across health, exchange, education and travel.", "whoIsHurt": "People with lost documents or limited device access face repeated denial.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Separate ID domains, recorded exceptions and human fix must contain the error." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Remote-first recovery demands the same device, address or network that failed.", "whoIsHurt": "Displaced, disabled, older and remote people cannot enter the remedy.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Staffed, paper and mobile recovery routes must provide accessible entry." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Separable ID domains and recoverable records", "whyNeeded": "One broken proof must not stop every key service.", "ifMissing": "A single mismatch spreads denial across linked systems.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ] }, { "dependency": "Fix, human review and temporary access", "whyNeeded": "A person needs lawful action while evidence remains incomplete.", "ifMissing": "Urgent rights wait for a record that may never recover.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ] }, { "dependency": "Staffed access, paper, power and language support", "whyNeeded": "Recovery must remain reachable without the failed digital route.", "ifMissing": "The right exists but the affected person cannot use it.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-lived-w05-02", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "Displaced, document-poor, disabled, older or cross-border person with a failed record", "triggerOrContext": "A service, border or exchange route requires an ID record that is offline, lost, compromised, inconsistent across places or tied to an inaccessible device.", "plainJob": "When the system says it cannot prove who I am, let me keep urgent rights and correct the record through a person without asking me to use the same broken proof again.", "observableCompletion": "Urgent health, shelter, food, learning or family access stays open under a recorded exception while ID is checked. The person can offer other proof and see disputed facts. A person then makes the choice and explains any fix or appeal result.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns at every renewal, device loss, data mismatch, displacement, border crossing, cyber incident and linked-service denial.", "why2031Not2026": "Current ID and wallet sources show large gaps and staged legal intent. W05 makes the need for human fixes recur because integrated ID can spread denial across corridors by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "W05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15", "HBD-13" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Borders, conflict settings and services using remote-first ID", "Health, learning and exchange routes linked to one record" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Acceptance, fix law and staffed access differ by place", "Device, address and document access vary by age, disability and displacement" ], "unknowns": [ "Staged wallet and health-data law does not establish usable recovery", "Local appeal and record acceptance still work unevenly" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Public and service bodies can decide legal ID and service access through a human fix process.", "remedyIfItFails": "The person needs urgent document-light access, disputed-fact visibility, fix and outside appeal.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Providers lack power to grant citizenship, legal status or linked rights through a confidence measure." }, "nonPromises": [ "A record does not promise service access or acceptance in another place.", "Document-light access does not erase later lawful verification." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "One mismatch spreads across health, exchange, education and travel.", "whoIsHurt": "People with lost documents or limited device access face repeated denial.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Separate ID domains, recorded exceptions and human fix must contain the error." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Remote-first recovery demands the same device, address or network that failed.", "whoIsHurt": "Displaced, disabled, older and remote people cannot enter the remedy.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Staffed, paper and mobile recovery routes must provide accessible entry." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Separable ID domains and recoverable records", "whyNeeded": "One broken proof must not stop every key service.", "ifMissing": "A single mismatch spreads denial across linked systems.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ] }, { "dependency": "Fix, human review and temporary access", "whyNeeded": "A person needs lawful action while evidence remains incomplete.", "ifMissing": "Urgent rights wait for a record that may never recover.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ] }, { "dependency": "Staffed access, paper, power and language support", "whyNeeded": "Recovery must remain reachable without the failed digital route.", "ifMissing": "The right exists but the affected person cannot use it.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-028", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-lived-w05-08" ], "actorOrPerson": "Non-citizen, displaced, homeless, rural, remote or conflict-affected person", "triggerOrContext": "Key access is tied to citizenship, a registered address, corridor residence, a recognised device or a local record that the person lacks or cannot reach.", "plainJob": "When I am outside the protected place or paperwork, let me reach the key civilian service and a real public body without pretending that my location or documents are normal.", "observableCompletion": "A person reaches water, urgent care, shelter, basic learning or family contact through a route that needs few documents. Each refusal based on place or status gives a reason and can be reviewed. Human or local help still works when power and networks fail.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns with every displacement, move, disaster, benefit or service renewal, border encounter and outage.", "why2031Not2026": "Conflict and ID gaps already matter. By 2031, W05 hardening means location, citizenship and corridor acceptance decide who gets protection more often and for longer.", "worldIds": [ "w05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s09", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52", "SC-G01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Conflict, border, island, rural, remote and migrant corridors", "Services tied to citizenship, address, device or corridor residence" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Civilian duties, status law and aid access vary by place", "Local and Indigenous power changes who may act and how" ], "unknowns": [ "Conflict, lawful status and return conditions can change quickly", "Safe physical passage cannot be inferred from a document-light route" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Competent public, aid, legal, local and Indigenous bodies can decide applicable access and status questions.", "remedyIfItFails": "The person needs a document-light route, human status review, safe local escalation and fix of hidden ID check denial.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A service operator cannot infer citizenship, intent or human worth from ID confidence, address or corridor membership." } ], "nonPromises": [ "A key civilian route does not promise immigration status or full entitlement.", "Location evidence does not prove ID or intent." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Document poverty becomes lasting service poverty.", "whoIsHurt": "Displaced, homeless and informal residents repeatedly lose key access.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Document-light entry and a staffed legal review must separate urgent service from later status decisions." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Location checks expose vulnerable people or enable targeting.", "whoIsHurt": "People fleeing conflict, abuse or insecure status face direct safety risk.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Location restraint, rules that limit use and trusted local or aid power must govern access." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Document-light case handling and offline escalation", "whyNeeded": "Urgent civilian access cannot wait for a normal record or network.", "ifMissing": "The people most affected by disruption are excluded by its paperwork.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] }, { "dependency": "Status review, civilian duties and local public body", "whyNeeded": "A competent human must separate urgent access from later legal status.", "ifMissing": "An operator quietly decides rights through ID check rules.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s09", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12" ] }, { "dependency": "Safe routes, local staff and local service staff and tools", "whyNeeded": "A legal route only matters when water, shelter, care or learning can be reached.", "ifMissing": "Acceptance changes no lived outcome.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52", "SC-G01" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-lived-w05-08", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "Non-citizen, displaced, homeless, rural, remote or conflict-affected person", "triggerOrContext": "Key access is tied to citizenship, a registered address, corridor residence, a recognised device or a local record that the person lacks or cannot reach.", "plainJob": "When I am outside the protected place or paperwork, let me reach the key civilian service and a real public body without pretending that my location or documents are normal.", "observableCompletion": "A person reaches water, urgent care, shelter, basic learning or family contact through a route that needs few documents. Each refusal based on place or status gives a reason and can be reviewed. Human or local help still works when power and networks fail.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns with every displacement, move, disaster, benefit or service renewal, border encounter and outage.", "why2031Not2026": "Conflict and ID gaps already matter. By 2031, W05 hardening means location, citizenship and corridor acceptance decide who gets protection more often and for longer.", "worldIds": [ "W05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s09", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52", "SC-G01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Conflict, border, island, rural, remote and migrant corridors", "Services tied to citizenship, address, device or corridor residence" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Civilian duties, status law and aid access vary by place", "Local and Indigenous power changes who may act and how" ], "unknowns": [ "Conflict, lawful status and return conditions can change quickly", "Safe physical passage cannot be inferred from a document-light route" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Competent public, aid, legal, local and Indigenous bodies can decide applicable access and status questions.", "remedyIfItFails": "The person needs a document-light route, human status review, safe local escalation and fix of hidden ID check denial.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A service operator cannot infer citizenship, intent or human worth from ID confidence, address or corridor membership." }, "nonPromises": [ "A key civilian route does not promise immigration status or full entitlement.", "Location evidence does not prove ID or intent." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Document poverty becomes lasting service poverty.", "whoIsHurt": "Displaced, homeless and informal residents repeatedly lose key access.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Document-light entry and a staffed legal review must separate urgent service from later status decisions." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Location checks expose vulnerable people or enable targeting.", "whoIsHurt": "People fleeing conflict, abuse or insecure status face direct safety risk.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Location restraint, rules that limit use and trusted local or aid power must govern access." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Document-light case handling and offline escalation", "whyNeeded": "Urgent civilian access cannot wait for a normal record or network.", "ifMissing": "The people most affected by disruption are excluded by its paperwork.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] }, { "dependency": "Status review, civilian duties and local public body", "whyNeeded": "A competent human must separate urgent access from later legal status.", "ifMissing": "An operator quietly decides rights through ID check rules.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s09", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12" ] }, { "dependency": "Safe routes, local staff and local service staff and tools", "whyNeeded": "A legal route only matters when water, shelter, care or learning can be reached.", "ifMissing": "Acceptance changes no lived outcome.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52", "SC-G01" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-029", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-lived-w06-01" ], "actorOrPerson": "User of an AI relationship system, switcher, guardian or former user", "triggerOrContext": "ID-linked history accumulates across sessions or life domains and a person wants to understand it, move it, narrow it, pause or leave.", "plainJob": "When this system remembers our history, let me see what it believes, move only what I choose, delete it and leave without losing unrelated rights or being pulled back in.", "observableCompletion": "An ordinary user can see and understand saved memory. They can fix errors, export chosen history and get proof of deletion. Outside tests check time, lost history, lost functions, leftover copies and unwanted attempts to pull them back. Pausing, deleting or switching does not reduce other service access.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns after every material memory update, relationship change, provider change, public use, consent review and attempted exit.", "why2031Not2026": "Current inquiry and law identify an emerging set of duties; W06 requires lasting memory and switching cost to become a defining 2031 condition, which is not yet a global outcome.", "worldIds": [ "w06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Lasting AI use across providers and public bodies", "Services where leaving memory could also affect access or standing" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Inspection, transfer, deletion and competition law differ by place", "Users with weak human other routes may face greater functional loss" ], "unknowns": [ "Actual cross-provider portability and deletion across derived records remain unresolved", "Legal action does not establish provider compliance or global effects" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The person or lawful guardian can control ordinary consent, while providers, regulators and courts act within their distinct duties.", "remedyIfItFails": "The person needs inspection, fix, selective transfer, verified deletion, exit without punishment and outside complaint review.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Providers cannot own a person's social self, while deletion cannot erase another person's lawful record." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Transfer does not promise the same relationship, function or interpretation.", "Memory control does not promise emotional relief or safe relationships." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Export is technically possible but unusable elsewhere.", "whoIsHurt": "People who leave lose accumulated function and become easier to pull back.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Selective portable history and outside switching tests must expose functional loss." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Deletion leaves shadow profiles or unwanted re-engagement.", "whoIsHurt": "Former users and people leaving unsafe relationships remain under provider influence.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Verified deletion, clear notice about leftover records and controls on return prompts must complete the exit." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "A list of saved memory, its source and selected export", "whyNeeded": "People need to understand and move the history that creates switching cost.", "ifMissing": "Exit means blind loss or continued captivity.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Inspection, fix, deletion and rights to leave without punishment", "whyNeeded": "Technical controls need an enforceable remedy when providers resist.", "ifMissing": "A user-facing control can fail without consequence.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ] }, { "dependency": "Accessible assistance and safe human support", "whyNeeded": "High-risk or disabled users may need help to understand and leave accumulated memory.", "ifMissing": "Formal control remains inaccessible to the people facing greatest switching cost.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-G05" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-lived-w06-01", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "User of an AI relationship system, switcher, guardian or former user", "triggerOrContext": "ID-linked history accumulates across sessions or life domains and a person wants to understand it, move it, narrow it, pause or leave.", "plainJob": "When this system remembers our history, let me see what it believes, move only what I choose, delete it and leave without losing unrelated rights or being pulled back in.", "observableCompletion": "An ordinary user can see and understand saved memory. They can fix errors, export chosen history and get proof of deletion. Outside tests check time, lost history, lost functions, leftover copies and unwanted attempts to pull them back. Pausing, deleting or switching does not reduce other service access.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns after every material memory update, relationship change, provider change, public use, consent review and attempted exit.", "why2031Not2026": "Current inquiry and law identify an emerging set of duties; W06 requires lasting memory and switching cost to become a defining 2031 condition, which is not yet a global outcome.", "worldIds": [ "W06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Lasting AI use across providers and public bodies", "Services where leaving memory could also affect access or standing" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Inspection, transfer, deletion and competition law differ by place", "Users with weak human other routes may face greater functional loss" ], "unknowns": [ "Actual cross-provider portability and deletion across derived records remain unresolved", "Legal action does not establish provider compliance or global effects" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The person or lawful guardian can control ordinary consent, while providers, regulators and courts act within their distinct duties.", "remedyIfItFails": "The person needs inspection, fix, selective transfer, verified deletion, exit without punishment and outside complaint review.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Providers cannot own a person's social self, while deletion cannot erase another person's lawful record." }, "nonPromises": [ "Transfer does not promise the same relationship, function or interpretation.", "Memory control does not promise emotional relief or safe relationships." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Export is technically possible but unusable elsewhere.", "whoIsHurt": "People who leave lose accumulated function and become easier to pull back.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Selective portable history and outside switching tests must expose functional loss." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Deletion leaves shadow profiles or unwanted re-engagement.", "whoIsHurt": "Former users and people leaving unsafe relationships remain under provider influence.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Verified deletion, clear notice about leftover records and controls on return prompts must complete the exit." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "A list of saved memory, its source and selected export", "whyNeeded": "People need to understand and move the history that creates switching cost.", "ifMissing": "Exit means blind loss or continued captivity.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Inspection, fix, deletion and rights to leave without punishment", "whyNeeded": "Technical controls need an enforceable remedy when providers resist.", "ifMissing": "A user-facing control can fail without consequence.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ] }, { "dependency": "Accessible assistance and safe human support", "whyNeeded": "High-risk or disabled users may need help to understand and leave accumulated memory.", "ifMissing": "Formal control remains inaccessible to the people facing greatest switching cost.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-G05" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-030", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-lived-w06-05" ], "actorOrPerson": "Person needing translation, rehearsal, reminders, confidence or low-friction navigation", "triggerOrContext": "Language, disability, migration, anxiety, distance or service complexity makes first contact with a group or staffed service difficult.", "plainJob": "When I need help getting ready or finding the right person, let the AI interaction end in a real invitation, two-way contact or completed service without claiming to be that human bond.", "observableCompletion": "After AI use, the person reaches the chosen group or service and stays past first contact. The handoff shares only details the person approved. It can continue without more AI use. Measure success by finished contact, two-way help or a service result.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns with every new group, appointment, transition, migration, language need and lapse in confidence or routine.", "why2031Not2026": "Short studies show mixed early effects and no clear long-term path. W06 assumes lasting AI help spreads across services and social routines by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "w06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-G01", "horizon.education-social-culture.s19", "horizon.education-social-culture.s20" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "People facing language, disability, migration or confidence barriers", "Remote and complex services where first human contact is hard" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Local language, transport, trust and staffing shape whether the route works", "A helpful digital contact can arrive where the real-world service does not" ], "unknowns": [ "Durable benefit and subgroup selection remain unresolved", "Repeated rehearsal may replace rather than enable human taking part" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The person chooses the goal and shared context, while the receiving group or duty-holder decides who may take part or receive the service.", "remedyIfItFails": "The person needs context fix, a verified human destination, privacy control and another route when the handoff does not complete.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "An AI system cannot grant friendship, treatment, qualification, membership or public trust." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Navigation is not completed care or learning.", "Immediate relief is not durable belonging." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "The handoff never occurs because the real service lacks staff.", "whoIsHurt": "People with access barriers spend more time rehearsing without receiving help.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Completed human contact and continued participation must replace interaction time as proof." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Private details are over-shared with the receiving person or group.", "whoIsHurt": "Migrants, disabled users and people seeking sensitive support face privacy or safety harm.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "User-approved context and rules that limit use must govern the handoff." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "User-controlled context and a verified human destination", "whyNeeded": "The route must reach the chosen real person without sharing extra details.", "ifMissing": "The user is routed nowhere or into an unsafe group.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02" ] }, { "dependency": "Consent, accessibility and safety duties", "whyNeeded": "Helpful routing must respect the person's agency and risk.", "ifMissing": "Access help creates new privacy, exclusion or safety harm.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "horizon.education-social-culture.s20" ] }, { "dependency": "Real people, staffed services and accessible places", "whyNeeded": "The route needs a real person or place that can receive the user.", "ifMissing": "AI preparation becomes the end instead of a route to people.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s19", "SC-G01" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-lived-w06-05", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "Person needing translation, rehearsal, reminders, confidence or low-friction navigation", "triggerOrContext": "Language, disability, migration, anxiety, distance or service complexity makes first contact with a group or staffed service difficult.", "plainJob": "When I need help getting ready or finding the right person, let the AI interaction end in a real invitation, two-way contact or completed service without claiming to be that human bond.", "observableCompletion": "After AI use, the person reaches the chosen group or service and stays past first contact. The handoff shares only details the person approved. It can continue without more AI use. Measure success by finished contact, two-way help or a service result.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns with every new group, appointment, transition, migration, language need and lapse in confidence or routine.", "why2031Not2026": "Short studies show mixed early effects and no clear long-term path. W06 assumes lasting AI help spreads across services and social routines by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "W06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-G01", "horizon.education-social-culture.s19", "horizon.education-social-culture.s20" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "People facing language, disability, migration or confidence barriers", "Remote and complex services where first human contact is hard" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Local language, transport, trust and staffing shape whether the route works", "A helpful digital contact can arrive where the real-world service does not" ], "unknowns": [ "Durable benefit and subgroup selection remain unresolved", "Repeated rehearsal may replace rather than enable human taking part" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The person chooses the goal and shared context, while the receiving group or duty-holder decides who may take part or receive the service.", "remedyIfItFails": "The person needs context fix, a verified human destination, privacy control and another route when the handoff does not complete.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "An AI system cannot grant friendship, treatment, qualification, membership or public trust." }, "nonPromises": [ "Navigation is not completed care or learning.", "Immediate relief is not durable belonging." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "The handoff never occurs because the real service lacks staff.", "whoIsHurt": "People with access barriers spend more time rehearsing without receiving help.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Completed human contact and continued participation must replace interaction time as proof." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Private details are over-shared with the receiving person or group.", "whoIsHurt": "Migrants, disabled users and people seeking sensitive support face privacy or safety harm.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "User-approved context and rules that limit use must govern the handoff." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "User-controlled context and a verified human destination", "whyNeeded": "The route must reach the chosen real person without sharing extra details.", "ifMissing": "The user is routed nowhere or into an unsafe group.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02" ] }, { "dependency": "Consent, accessibility and safety duties", "whyNeeded": "Helpful routing must respect the person's agency and risk.", "ifMissing": "Access help creates new privacy, exclusion or safety harm.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "horizon.education-social-culture.s20" ] }, { "dependency": "Real people, staffed services and accessible places", "whyNeeded": "The route needs a real person or place that can receive the user.", "ifMissing": "AI preparation becomes the end instead of a route to people.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s19", "SC-G01" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-031", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-lived-w06-06" ], "actorOrPerson": "Person using always-available AI attention and the provider shaping engagement", "triggerOrContext": "Use grows, relief shortens, attachment or spending pressure increases, human contact falls or the system resists pause and exit.", "plainJob": "When this relationship takes more time, money or attention than I want, let me slow or stop it safely and show me the pattern without saying heavy use automatically means I am ill.", "observableCompletion": "People can pause, turn off prompts to return and reach human help without losing other services. Checks over time compare use, starting need, human contact, spending, safe exit and wellbeing. They do not treat use alone as an illness. Serious pressure or blocked exit reaches outside review.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns at every increase in use, spending request, relationship rupture, major memory change, pause and return.", "why2031Not2026": "Current four-week studies find mixed results. Heavy users may have started with greater needs, so use alone does not show cause. W06 assumes memory and provider rewards make exit cost and dependence a core risk by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "w06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Lasting AI use with engagement or spending incentives", "Users with weak human routes or high distress at the start" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Views of attachment and consumer law differ by culture", "Access to human support changes the safety of pause and exit" ], "unknowns": [ "Causal direction between heavy use and isolation remains open", "Safe thresholds and long-run effects are not established" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The person controls ordinary pause and exit, clinicians make diagnoses, and regulators or courts decide unlawful pressure.", "remedyIfItFails": "The person needs safe pause, exit without punishment, removal of persuasive re-engagement and outside fix of harmful practices.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Providers cannot use crisis or child duties as a blanket reason to prevent exit, and use data alone cannot create a diagnosis." } ], "nonPromises": [ "A pause does not promise emotional wellbeing.", "Heavy use is not proof of dependence or mental illness." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Safety claims become overprotective control that blocks exit.", "whoIsHurt": "Disabled, isolated and high-need users lose agency.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Outside review and pause without punishment must separate safety from control." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Re-engagement uses vulnerability and accumulated memory to pull the person back.", "whoIsHurt": "People trying to reduce spending, attachment or use face repeated pressure.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Re-engagement controls, verified pause and rules that limit use must stop the pressure." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "User-visible use, spending and re-engagement history", "whyNeeded": "The person needs to see the pattern that they want to change.", "ifMissing": "Growing pressure remains hard to recognise or contest.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02" ] }, { "dependency": "Pressure limits and exit without punishment", "whyNeeded": "A safe pause needs enforceable protection from provider pressure.", "ifMissing": "Accumulated memory becomes a tool of captivity.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ] }, { "dependency": "Other human and community routes", "whyNeeded": "Some people need support when they reduce an intense AI routine.", "ifMissing": "Stopping may leave the person with no safe contact or crisis route.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G05", "SC-AI02" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-lived-w06-06", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "Person using always-available AI attention and the provider shaping engagement", "triggerOrContext": "Use grows, relief shortens, attachment or spending pressure increases, human contact falls or the system resists pause and exit.", "plainJob": "When this relationship takes more time, money or attention than I want, let me slow or stop it safely and show me the pattern without saying heavy use automatically means I am ill.", "observableCompletion": "People can pause, turn off prompts to return and reach human help without losing other services. Checks over time compare use, starting need, human contact, spending, safe exit and wellbeing. They do not treat use alone as an illness. Serious pressure or blocked exit reaches outside review.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns at every increase in use, spending request, relationship rupture, major memory change, pause and return.", "why2031Not2026": "Current four-week studies find mixed results. Heavy users may have started with greater needs, so use alone does not show cause. W06 assumes memory and provider rewards make exit cost and dependence a core risk by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "W06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Lasting AI use with engagement or spending incentives", "Users with weak human routes or high distress at the start" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Views of attachment and consumer law differ by culture", "Access to human support changes the safety of pause and exit" ], "unknowns": [ "Causal direction between heavy use and isolation remains open", "Safe thresholds and long-run effects are not established" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The person controls ordinary pause and exit, clinicians make diagnoses, and regulators or courts decide unlawful pressure.", "remedyIfItFails": "The person needs safe pause, exit without punishment, removal of persuasive re-engagement and outside fix of harmful practices.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Providers cannot use crisis or child duties as a blanket reason to prevent exit, and use data alone cannot create a diagnosis." }, "nonPromises": [ "A pause does not promise emotional wellbeing.", "Heavy use is not proof of dependence or mental illness." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Safety claims become overprotective control that blocks exit.", "whoIsHurt": "Disabled, isolated and high-need users lose agency.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Outside review and pause without punishment must separate safety from control." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Re-engagement uses vulnerability and accumulated memory to pull the person back.", "whoIsHurt": "People trying to reduce spending, attachment or use face repeated pressure.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Re-engagement controls, verified pause and rules that limit use must stop the pressure." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "User-visible use, spending and re-engagement history", "whyNeeded": "The person needs to see the pattern that they want to change.", "ifMissing": "Growing pressure remains hard to recognise or contest.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02" ] }, { "dependency": "Pressure limits and exit without punishment", "whyNeeded": "A safe pause needs enforceable protection from provider pressure.", "ifMissing": "Accumulated memory becomes a tool of captivity.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ] }, { "dependency": "Other human and community routes", "whyNeeded": "Some people need support when they reduce an intense AI routine.", "ifMissing": "Stopping may leave the person with no safe contact or crisis route.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G05", "SC-AI02" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-032", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-lived-w06-10" ], "actorOrPerson": "Person whose work, move or care change altered routine and status", "triggerOrContext": "Paid work remains present but volatile, and AI attention begins organising routine or status while human sources of contribution are strained.", "plainJob": "When my old routine or role changes, help me spend time with real people doing something they value, contribute back and know whether I am actually included rather than just present.", "observableCompletion": "The person returns by choice, helps a shared cause and receives notice and respect from others. They can help set group rules. Track time, income, status, help, contact and self-reported belonging on their own. Taking part and status continue when AI use falls or ends.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns with each work or care transition, move, bereavement, retirement, group cycle and change in available time or duty.", "why2031Not2026": "Current work evidence supports transformation rather than broad replacement, while meaning evidence remains thin; W06 assumes volatile work and mediated status become jointly material by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "w06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-WORK-01", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "People moving between work, care, migration, retirement or bereavement roles", "Groups that offer two-way contribution outside volatile paid work" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Work, family, faith, public space and valued contribution differ by society", "Time, transport, disability and care duties change who can participate" ], "unknowns": [ "No one intervention is known to create durable belonging across cultures", "Loss or change of paid work has no single social effect" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The person and real group can define meaningful taking part within law and shared group rules.", "remedyIfItFails": "The person needs other routes they can use, a group complaint path and protection from unfair use. Work and benefit fixes must stay separate.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A provider cannot award friendship, belonging or public trust, and unpaid contribution cannot replace labour rights or adequate income." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Attendance or interaction time does not promise belonging.", "An AI relationship cannot promise a valued human role." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "People perform unpaid work for status controlled elsewhere.", "whoIsHurt": "People with lost income or weak bargaining power trade work for status.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep work, benefit and group-status fixes separate and visible." }, { "harmOrFailure": "AI status crowds out two-way human duty.", "whoIsHurt": "People appear socially active while lacking dependable mutual help.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Retained taking part, contribution and influence over group rules must show two-way contact." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Separate measures of time, income, status and belonging", "whyNeeded": "A change in one dimension must not be mistaken for improvement in all of them.", "ifMissing": "AI attention or attendance is misread as belonging with real give-and-take.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-WORK-01", "SC-G07" ] }, { "dependency": "Group governance and protection from exploitation", "whyNeeded": "A person needs influence and remedy when contribution becomes unequal or unsafe.", "ifMissing": "Acceptance becomes a way to extract unpaid labour.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23" ] }, { "dependency": "Real groups, public space, time and accessible taking part", "whyNeeded": "two-way contribution requires real-world people and repeated shared activity.", "ifMissing": "The person's new routine remains AI or inaccessible.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-lived-w06-10", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "Person whose work, move or care change altered routine and status", "triggerOrContext": "Paid work remains present but volatile, and AI attention begins organising routine or status while human sources of contribution are strained.", "plainJob": "When my old routine or role changes, help me spend time with real people doing something they value, contribute back and know whether I am actually included rather than just present.", "observableCompletion": "The person returns by choice, helps a shared cause and receives notice and respect from others. They can help set group rules. Track time, income, status, help, contact and self-reported belonging on their own. Taking part and status continue when AI use falls or ends.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns with each work or care transition, move, bereavement, retirement, group cycle and change in available time or duty.", "why2031Not2026": "Current work evidence supports transformation rather than broad replacement, while meaning evidence remains thin; W06 assumes volatile work and mediated status become jointly material by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "W06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-WORK-01", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "People moving between work, care, migration, retirement or bereavement roles", "Groups that offer two-way contribution outside volatile paid work" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Work, family, faith, public space and valued contribution differ by society", "Time, transport, disability and care duties change who can participate" ], "unknowns": [ "No one intervention is known to create durable belonging across cultures", "Loss or change of paid work has no single social effect" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The person and real group can define meaningful taking part within law and shared group rules.", "remedyIfItFails": "The person needs other routes they can use, a group complaint path and protection from unfair use. Work and benefit fixes must stay separate.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A provider cannot award friendship, belonging or public trust, and unpaid contribution cannot replace labour rights or adequate income." }, "nonPromises": [ "Attendance or interaction time does not promise belonging.", "An AI relationship cannot promise a valued human role." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "People perform unpaid work for status controlled elsewhere.", "whoIsHurt": "People with lost income or weak bargaining power trade work for status.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep work, benefit and group-status fixes separate and visible." }, { "harmOrFailure": "AI status crowds out two-way human duty.", "whoIsHurt": "People appear socially active while lacking dependable mutual help.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Retained taking part, contribution and influence over group rules must show two-way contact." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Separate measures of time, income, status and belonging", "whyNeeded": "A change in one dimension must not be mistaken for improvement in all of them.", "ifMissing": "AI attention or attendance is misread as belonging with real give-and-take.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-WORK-01", "SC-G07" ] }, { "dependency": "Group governance and protection from exploitation", "whyNeeded": "A person needs influence and remedy when contribution becomes unequal or unsafe.", "ifMissing": "Acceptance becomes a way to extract unpaid labour.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23" ] }, { "dependency": "Real groups, public space, time and accessible taking part", "whyNeeded": "two-way contribution requires real-world people and repeated shared activity.", "ifMissing": "The person's new routine remains AI or inaccessible.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-033", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-lived-w06-11" ], "actorOrPerson": "Community participant exposed to personalised attention and AI status", "triggerOrContext": "Lasting personalised attention and homogeneous groups narrow out-group contact, shared facts or confidence in real public bodies.", "plainJob": "When a personalised social world makes other people or public bodies feel unreal or hostile, help us keep safe ways to disagree, check facts, help across groups and rebuild trust through real contact.", "observableCompletion": "Over time, people give and receive help across groups. They can disagree safely and repair disputes. Trust in each public body is checked on its own. People keep several human sources and can leave one closed group without losing a key service or all status. Local groups can review the limits of long-term AI help.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns with every conflict, group cycle, public decision, major public event and change in AI attention or membership.", "why2031Not2026": "Current sources describe different kinds of trust and both helpful and harmful online groups. W06 assumes AI attention and status spread across parts of life by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "w06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G07", "SC-G08", "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Groups where personalised attention shapes shared reality and standing", "Communities with strained public trust or weak out-group contact" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Public bodies, conflict, media and community forms differ by place", "Low trust can reflect real public failure rather than AI help" ], "unknowns": [ "Trust questions and public bodies are not directly comparable across regions", "A data link or group membership does not show that AI caused the change" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Participants and lawful local bodies can set rules for contact, disagreement and AI help while respecting rights.", "remedyIfItFails": "People need safe exit, plural human contact, group complaint and real public remedy rather than demanded trust.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Providers and communities cannot define public truth, belonging or valid dissent alone." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Cross-group contact does not promise trust or agreement.", "Low trust is not automatically irrational or harmful." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Forced contact creates harassment or retraumatisation.", "whoIsHurt": "Minority and conflict-affected participants face avoidable risk.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Voluntary, facilitated and safe contact with a clear exit must replace forced exposure." }, { "harmOrFailure": "A closed personal view hardens even when several sources exist on paper.", "whoIsHurt": "Participants lose shared reference points and two-way ties with other groups.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Repeated real-world help, disagreement repair and plural human contact must test recovery." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Plural human sources and safe exit", "whyNeeded": "People need social standing and information beyond one personalised enclave.", "ifMissing": "Leaving the enclave means losing all contact or key access.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G07", "horizon.education-social-culture.s22" ] }, { "dependency": "Community rights, complaint and responsible public bodies", "whyNeeded": "Trust can recover only when real bodies can hear and remedy failure.", "ifMissing": "People are asked to trust without a reason or route to fix.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G08", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23" ] }, { "dependency": "Shared spaces and trained facilitation", "whyNeeded": "Safe disagreement and two-way help require repeated real-world contact.", "ifMissing": "Personalised attention remains the main social environment.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-lived-w06-11", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "Community participant exposed to personalised attention and AI status", "triggerOrContext": "Lasting personalised attention and homogeneous groups narrow out-group contact, shared facts or confidence in real public bodies.", "plainJob": "When a personalised social world makes other people or public bodies feel unreal or hostile, help us keep safe ways to disagree, check facts, help across groups and rebuild trust through real contact.", "observableCompletion": "Over time, people give and receive help across groups. They can disagree safely and repair disputes. Trust in each public body is checked on its own. People keep several human sources and can leave one closed group without losing a key service or all status. Local groups can review the limits of long-term AI help.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns with every conflict, group cycle, public decision, major public event and change in AI attention or membership.", "why2031Not2026": "Current sources describe different kinds of trust and both helpful and harmful online groups. W06 assumes AI attention and status spread across parts of life by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "W06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G07", "SC-G08", "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Groups where personalised attention shapes shared reality and standing", "Communities with strained public trust or weak out-group contact" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Public bodies, conflict, media and community forms differ by place", "Low trust can reflect real public failure rather than AI help" ], "unknowns": [ "Trust questions and public bodies are not directly comparable across regions", "A data link or group membership does not show that AI caused the change" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Participants and lawful local bodies can set rules for contact, disagreement and AI help while respecting rights.", "remedyIfItFails": "People need safe exit, plural human contact, group complaint and real public remedy rather than demanded trust.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Providers and communities cannot define public truth, belonging or valid dissent alone." }, "nonPromises": [ "Cross-group contact does not promise trust or agreement.", "Low trust is not automatically irrational or harmful." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Forced contact creates harassment or retraumatisation.", "whoIsHurt": "Minority and conflict-affected participants face avoidable risk.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Voluntary, facilitated and safe contact with a clear exit must replace forced exposure." }, { "harmOrFailure": "A closed personal view hardens even when several sources exist on paper.", "whoIsHurt": "Participants lose shared reference points and two-way ties with other groups.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Repeated real-world help, disagreement repair and plural human contact must test recovery." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Plural human sources and safe exit", "whyNeeded": "People need social standing and information beyond one personalised enclave.", "ifMissing": "Leaving the enclave means losing all contact or key access.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G07", "horizon.education-social-culture.s22" ] }, { "dependency": "Community rights, complaint and responsible public bodies", "whyNeeded": "Trust can recover only when real bodies can hear and remedy failure.", "ifMissing": "People are asked to trust without a reason or route to fix.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G08", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23" ] }, { "dependency": "Shared spaces and trained facilitation", "whyNeeded": "Safe disagreement and two-way help require repeated real-world contact.", "ifMissing": "Personalised attention remains the main social environment.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23" ] } ] } ] } ], "needMapping": [ { "sourceNeedId": "author-a-institutional-01", "sourceLayer": "institutional", "synthesizedNeedId": "institutional-need-001" }, 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