{ "schemaVersion": 1, "contractVersion": "dynamic-stage-c-synthesis-v1", "layer": "institutional", "reviewedWorldSetBinding": { "receiptArtifact": { "path": "research/rebuild/discontinuity-r2/stage-b-fresh/world-set-receipt.json", "bytes": 398, "sha256": "652bc1525aea95e7ae23d1fd78e169d59a5cef10b88abdb7503e3a923e281c30" }, "receiptSha256": "4f0c1e9ea0b9f6bd481362162a9a0e424e5b428380ba502175d8b8582d563f47", "orderedWorldIds": [ "W01", "W02", "W03", "W04", "W05", "W06" ] }, "needs": [ { "id": "institutional-need-001", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-institutional-01" ], "actorOrPerson": "Workers, service users, employers, public bodies and people affected by an assisted choice", "triggerOrContext": "A machine prepares, checks, or coordinates a high-impact task. Its reliability across many kinds of work is still too weak for it to act alone. Repair can also fail.", "plainJob": "Before the action affects me, show me who is responsible, what the machine was allowed to do, and how a person can stop or fix it.", "observableCompletion": "A case record names the person in charge. It shows what the machine could do and what proof it used. It records any override. The affected person can reach a human who can pause, fix, and repair the outcome.", "repeatedDemand": "The need returns with each high-impact choice, version change, exception, incident and appeal.", "why2031Not2026": "In 2026, machines work well only on short, narrow tasks, and rules for blame vary. In W01, assisted work is routine by 2031 but people stay in charge. This boundary must work each day, not just in tests or guidance.", "worldIds": [ "w01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "AC-06", "AC-09", "AC-30", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter wherever high-impact machine help is used. The assigned evidence does not show which legal areas will offer the strongest human review." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Rules for legal blame, access to records, and staff for appeals vary by legal area. The assigned evidence does not show one pattern for all places." ], "unknowns": [ "Whether legal blame follows real control or is pushed onto a worker with no power", "Whether public bodies with fewer staff and funds can provide a real human review", "Whether suppliers in more than one country will accept one named person or group as responsible" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "A named person or responsible public body can approve and stop the action. The machine cannot expand its own role.", "remedyIfItFails": "The affected person gets notice and the relevant records. A human can review, pause, correct, and repair the outcome. An offline route is available when digital access fails.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Human sign-off cannot promise that the action is correct." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Human sign-off makes the action correct", "Machine help is safe in every field", "The named person always has enough time or skill" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Rubber-stamp approval", "whoIsHurt": "People affected by a high-impact decision that no one truly checked", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Require the named reviewer to record reasons, show any override, and allow an outside human appeal." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Duty is dumped on junior staff", "whoIsHurt": "Junior workers who are blamed but lack time, skill, or power to stop the action", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Give responsibility only with enough time, training, and stop power. Move legal blame back to the responsible organisation when those are missing." }, { "harmOrFailure": "No fix across suppliers", "whoIsHurt": "People harmed by a decision that passed through several suppliers", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Name one lead organisation that must collect the records, correct the outcome, and coordinate repair across suppliers." }, { "harmOrFailure": "The human route never responds", "whoIsHurt": "People who need an urgent review or correction", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Set response times, an escalation path, and an offline contact. Pause the disputed action when no qualified person responds." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: A record of who did what. Clear limits on the machine's role. A safe stop control.", "whyNeeded": "The named person can explain, stop, and repair an action only if they can see its limits and full record.", "ifMissing": "Without the record or stop control, the named person carries responsibility but cannot prevent or fix the action.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-06", "AC-09", "AC-30", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: A named person or body with a legal duty. Access to notice and evidence. A correction and repair process backed by law.", "whyNeeded": "The responsible person or body needs the legal power and duty to pause, correct, and repair harm, not just answer a complaint.", "ifMissing": "Without that power, the affected person reaches a human who cannot change the outcome or provide repair.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-06", "AC-09", "AC-30", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "No specific site or physical asset is required.", "whyNeeded": "This need is about clear responsibility and repair for high-impact assisted decisions. It does not depend on one type of site or asset.", "ifMissing": "Requiring a particular site or asset would add a false barrier without making responsibility clearer.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-06", "AC-09", "AC-30", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-institutional-01", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Workers, service users, employers, public bodies and people affected by an assisted choice", "triggerOrContext": "A machine prepares, checks, or coordinates a high-impact task. Its reliability across many kinds of work is still too weak for it to act alone. Repair can also fail.", "plainJob": "Before the action affects me, show me who is responsible, what the machine was allowed to do, and how a person can stop or fix it.", "observableCompletion": "A case record names the person in charge. It shows what the machine could do and what proof it used. It records any override. The affected person can reach a human who can pause, fix, and repair the outcome.", "repeatedDemand": "The need returns with each high-impact choice, version change, exception, incident and appeal.", "why2031Not2026": "In 2026, machines work well only on short, narrow tasks, and rules for blame vary. In W01, assisted work is routine by 2031 but people stay in charge. This boundary must work each day, not just in tests or guidance.", "worldIds": [ "W01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "AC-06", "AC-09", "AC-30", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter wherever high-impact machine help is used. The assigned evidence does not show which legal areas will offer the strongest human review." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Rules for legal blame, access to records, and staff for appeals vary by legal area. The assigned evidence does not show one pattern for all places." ], "unknowns": [ "Whether legal blame follows real control or is pushed onto a worker with no power", "Whether public bodies with fewer staff and funds can provide a real human review", "Whether suppliers in more than one country will accept one named person or group as responsible" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "A named person or responsible public body can approve and stop the action. The machine cannot expand its own role.", "remedyIfItFails": "The affected person gets notice and the relevant records. A human can review, pause, correct, and repair the outcome. An offline route is available when digital access fails.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Human sign-off cannot promise that the action is correct." }, "nonPromises": [ "Human sign-off makes the action correct", "Machine help is safe in every field", "The named person always has enough time or skill" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Rubber-stamp approval", "whoIsHurt": "People affected by a high-impact decision that no one truly checked", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Require the named reviewer to record reasons, show any override, and allow an outside human appeal." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Duty is dumped on junior staff", "whoIsHurt": "Junior workers who are blamed but lack time, skill, or power to stop the action", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Give responsibility only with enough time, training, and stop power. Move legal blame back to the responsible organisation when those are missing." }, { "harmOrFailure": "No fix across suppliers", "whoIsHurt": "People harmed by a decision that passed through several suppliers", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Name one lead organisation that must collect the records, correct the outcome, and coordinate repair across suppliers." }, { "harmOrFailure": "The human route never responds", "whoIsHurt": "People who need an urgent review or correction", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Set response times, an escalation path, and an offline contact. Pause the disputed action when no qualified person responds." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: A record of who did what. Clear limits on the machine's role. A safe stop control.", "whyNeeded": "The named person can explain, stop, and repair an action only if they can see its limits and full record.", "ifMissing": "Without the record or stop control, the named person carries responsibility but cannot prevent or fix the action.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-06", "AC-09", "AC-30", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: A named person or body with a legal duty. Access to notice and evidence. A correction and repair process backed by law.", "whyNeeded": "The responsible person or body needs the legal power and duty to pause, correct, and repair harm, not just answer a complaint.", "ifMissing": "Without that power, the affected person reaches a human who cannot change the outcome or provide repair.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-06", "AC-09", "AC-30", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "No specific site or physical asset is required.", "whyNeeded": "This need is about clear responsibility and repair for high-impact assisted decisions. It does not depend on one type of site or asset.", "ifMissing": "Requiring a particular site or asset would add a false barrier without making responsibility clearer.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-06", "AC-09", "AC-30", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-002", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-institutional-02" ], "actorOrPerson": "Buyers, regulators, insurers, workers who sign off, and people who bear failure", "triggerOrContext": "Smooth machine output is cheap and easy to show. It is still hard to prove that the meaning is right, a long task worked, real-world action was safe, and failures can be fixed.", "plainJob": "Let me check that the whole job worked in a setting like mine. Do not rely only on a convincing answer or the system's own test.", "observableCompletion": "Outside proof covers the intended setting, hidden checks, human rescue, damage, repair time and unresolved limits. Buyers can compare the claim with actual incidents after use in real work.", "repeatedDemand": "Proof expires as models, tools, data, staff, sites and threats change.", "why2031Not2026": "Tests ready in 2026 are narrow and often cover software only. W01 assumes wide but limited use by 2031. Fresh proof that work succeeds and failures can be fixed will then be a normal buying need.", "worldIds": [ "w01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "AC-09", "EWF-07", "RSM-13", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-metr-long-tasks-2025" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter wherever people buy or approve machine-assisted work. The assigned evidence does not show which places can fund enough outside testing." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Access to skilled testers, real-world test sites, and funds for independent checks varies by place." ], "unknowns": [ "How to keep testing independent and affordable", "How much a test result from one site applies at another", "How to report failures without exposing security details or personal data" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Independent testers can examine the system and publish findings. The organisation using the system still decides whether the evidence fits its setting and remains responsible for harm.", "remedyIfItFails": "Workers and affected people can report failures, read the relevant findings, and trigger a fresh test, human review, or pause.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Testing cannot promise that failure will never happen." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Zero failure", "A test result from one setting applies everywhere", "A certificate stays valid after a major change" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "A check that exists only on paper", "whoIsHurt": "Buyers, workers, and service users who rely on a weak certificate", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish the test method, limits, failures, and date. Require a fresh outside test when the system or setting changes." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Large suppliers price out smaller users", "whoIsHurt": "Small organisations and lower-budget public services that cannot afford a private test", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Support shared or public testing, publish standard evidence, and keep review fees open to challenge." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Hidden human rescue", "whoIsHurt": "Workers who quietly repair failures and users who are told the system worked alone", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Record each human rescue, include it in success claims, and pay and staff the rescue work." }, { "harmOrFailure": "The supplier chooses only easy tests", "whoIsHurt": "People whose language, disability, site, or case is harder than the test setting", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Let outside testers choose realistic hard cases and publish which people and settings were not tested." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Tests tied to the exact system version. Records of failures and human rescue. Evidence that repair worked.", "whyNeeded": "Evidence must link one system and setting to real success, human rescue, damage, and repair.", "ifMissing": "Without fresh evidence, a smooth demonstration or old certificate can be mistaken for dependable performance.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-09", "EWF-07", "RSM-13", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-metr-long-tasks-2025" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Access for independent testers. Safe reporting of failures. Buyer power to pause use.", "whyNeeded": "Testers and workers need lawful access and protection when they report a problem. Buyers need power to act on the findings.", "ifMissing": "Without these rights, suppliers can hide failures and a failed test has no practical effect.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-09", "EWF-07", "RSM-13", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-metr-long-tasks-2025" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Typical sites and equipment. Safe conditions for field tests. Access to upkeep and repair work.", "whyNeeded": "Claims about real-world performance must be tested where the work, hazards, wear, and repairs occur.", "ifMissing": "Without a real setting, the test misses site hazards, human rescue, wear, and the work needed to repair failure.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-09", "EWF-07", "RSM-13", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-metr-long-tasks-2025" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-institutional-02", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Buyers, regulators, insurers, workers who sign off, and people who bear failure", "triggerOrContext": "Smooth machine output is cheap and easy to show. It is still hard to prove that the meaning is right, a long task worked, real-world action was safe, and failures can be fixed.", "plainJob": "Let me check that the whole job worked in a setting like mine. Do not rely only on a convincing answer or the system's own test.", "observableCompletion": "Outside proof covers the intended setting, hidden checks, human rescue, damage, repair time and unresolved limits. Buyers can compare the claim with actual incidents after use in real work.", "repeatedDemand": "Proof expires as models, tools, data, staff, sites and threats change.", "why2031Not2026": "Tests ready in 2026 are narrow and often cover software only. W01 assumes wide but limited use by 2031. Fresh proof that work succeeds and failures can be fixed will then be a normal buying need.", "worldIds": [ "W01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "AC-09", "EWF-07", "RSM-13", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-metr-long-tasks-2025" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter wherever people buy or approve machine-assisted work. The assigned evidence does not show which places can fund enough outside testing." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Access to skilled testers, real-world test sites, and funds for independent checks varies by place." ], "unknowns": [ "How to keep testing independent and affordable", "How much a test result from one site applies at another", "How to report failures without exposing security details or personal data" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Independent testers can examine the system and publish findings. The organisation using the system still decides whether the evidence fits its setting and remains responsible for harm.", "remedyIfItFails": "Workers and affected people can report failures, read the relevant findings, and trigger a fresh test, human review, or pause.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Testing cannot promise that failure will never happen." }, "nonPromises": [ "Zero failure", "A test result from one setting applies everywhere", "A certificate stays valid after a major change" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "A check that exists only on paper", "whoIsHurt": "Buyers, workers, and service users who rely on a weak certificate", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish the test method, limits, failures, and date. Require a fresh outside test when the system or setting changes." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Large suppliers price out smaller users", "whoIsHurt": "Small organisations and lower-budget public services that cannot afford a private test", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Support shared or public testing, publish standard evidence, and keep review fees open to challenge." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Hidden human rescue", "whoIsHurt": "Workers who quietly repair failures and users who are told the system worked alone", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Record each human rescue, include it in success claims, and pay and staff the rescue work." }, { "harmOrFailure": "The supplier chooses only easy tests", "whoIsHurt": "People whose language, disability, site, or case is harder than the test setting", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Let outside testers choose realistic hard cases and publish which people and settings were not tested." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Tests tied to the exact system version. Records of failures and human rescue. Evidence that repair worked.", "whyNeeded": "Evidence must link one system and setting to real success, human rescue, damage, and repair.", "ifMissing": "Without fresh evidence, a smooth demonstration or old certificate can be mistaken for dependable performance.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-09", "EWF-07", "RSM-13", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-metr-long-tasks-2025" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Access for independent testers. Safe reporting of failures. Buyer power to pause use.", "whyNeeded": "Testers and workers need lawful access and protection when they report a problem. Buyers need power to act on the findings.", "ifMissing": "Without these rights, suppliers can hide failures and a failed test has no practical effect.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-09", "EWF-07", "RSM-13", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-metr-long-tasks-2025" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Typical sites and equipment. Safe conditions for field tests. Access to upkeep and repair work.", "whyNeeded": "Claims about real-world performance must be tested where the work, hazards, wear, and repairs occur.", "ifMissing": "Without a real setting, the test misses site hazards, human rescue, wear, and the work needed to repair failure.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-09", "EWF-07", "RSM-13", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-metr-long-tasks-2025" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-003", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-institutional-06" ], "actorOrPerson": "Patients, disabled people, carers, doctors, nurses, local health teams, and service managers", "triggerOrContext": "Health and care tools can produce more notes, risk alerts, and remote contact. Staff, treatment, and hands-on care may still be scarce.", "plainJob": "When a system spots a problem, connect me to a qualified person who can act, tell me what happens next and keep supporting me if the first route fails.", "observableCompletion": "A named care team receives the case and contacts the person through a simple route. The team completes or arranges the needed action. It records what happened if staff or supplies were not ready.", "repeatedDemand": "Setting, risk signals, medicines, care arrangements and workforce availability change over time.", "why2031Not2026": "Guidance for digital health tools and data on service coverage exist in 2026. They do not prove good results or full access. In W01, trained staff still lead care as machine help spreads.", "worldIds": [ "w01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter wherever machine alerts or remote advice grow faster than staffed care. The assigned evidence does not show which places will face the largest gap." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Health rules, trained staff, transport, language access, and nearby care sites vary by place." ], "unknowns": [ "Whether time saved by the tool becomes more care for patients", "How many alerts lead to useful action", "Whether family carers receive relief or extra unpaid work" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "A trained care team decides diagnosis and treatment and remains responsible. A machine may help only within a clearly defined task.", "remedyIfItFails": "A person can reach a human, correct a record, decline machine help, and use a staffed crisis or offline route.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A non-clinical contact cannot promise a diagnosis." } ], "nonPromises": [ "A diagnosis from a non-clinical contact", "Treatment is available everywhere", "Remote contact can replace all hands-on care" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "An alert leads to no action", "whoIsHurt": "Patients whose care need is noticed but not treated", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Assign the alert to a named care team, set a response time, and use a staffed backup when the first route fails." }, { "harmOrFailure": "False reassurance", "whoIsHurt": "Patients and carers who delay care because a machine summary looks certain", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Show uncertainty, require clinician review for serious cases, and give a fast route to correct the advice." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Care work shifts to families", "whoIsHurt": "Patients and unpaid carers left to provide skilled or round-the-clock support", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Fund trained staff and respite, record failed handoffs, and restore professional care when family help is not enough." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Only automation answers in a crisis", "whoIsHurt": "People in crisis who need immediate trained human help", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Route crisis signs to trained staff, test the handoff often, and keep a phone or in-person backup." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Records that work across the care team. Accessible contact. Reliable case tracking and escalation.", "whyNeeded": "An alert must reach the responsible team with enough context and stay open until the team acts or offers another route.", "ifMissing": "Without reliable tracking, an alert can be lost, copied, or closed without treatment.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: A trained clinician remains responsible. The person can consent and correct records. Clear patient-safety and crisis duties apply.", "whyNeeded": "A trained team must have both the duty and authority to act, protect the person, and correct a harmful record.", "ifMissing": "Without these duties, the route gives advice but no clinician takes responsibility, acts in a crisis, or fixes an error.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Trained staff, care sites, medicines, transport, power, and communications.", "whyNeeded": "A digital bridge helps only when staff, treatment, and hands-on support are ready at the other end.", "ifMissing": "Without those resources, detection grows but the person receives no examination, treatment, or practical care.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-institutional-06", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Patients, disabled people, carers, doctors, nurses, local health teams, and service managers", "triggerOrContext": "Health and care tools can produce more notes, risk alerts, and remote contact. Staff, treatment, and hands-on care may still be scarce.", "plainJob": "When a system spots a problem, connect me to a qualified person who can act, tell me what happens next and keep supporting me if the first route fails.", "observableCompletion": "A named care team receives the case and contacts the person through a simple route. The team completes or arranges the needed action. It records what happened if staff or supplies were not ready.", "repeatedDemand": "Setting, risk signals, medicines, care arrangements and workforce availability change over time.", "why2031Not2026": "Guidance for digital health tools and data on service coverage exist in 2026. They do not prove good results or full access. In W01, trained staff still lead care as machine help spreads.", "worldIds": [ "W01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter wherever machine alerts or remote advice grow faster than staffed care. The assigned evidence does not show which places will face the largest gap." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Health rules, trained staff, transport, language access, and nearby care sites vary by place." ], "unknowns": [ "Whether time saved by the tool becomes more care for patients", "How many alerts lead to useful action", "Whether family carers receive relief or extra unpaid work" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "A trained care team decides diagnosis and treatment and remains responsible. A machine may help only within a clearly defined task.", "remedyIfItFails": "A person can reach a human, correct a record, decline machine help, and use a staffed crisis or offline route.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A non-clinical contact cannot promise a diagnosis." }, "nonPromises": [ "A diagnosis from a non-clinical contact", "Treatment is available everywhere", "Remote contact can replace all hands-on care" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "An alert leads to no action", "whoIsHurt": "Patients whose care need is noticed but not treated", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Assign the alert to a named care team, set a response time, and use a staffed backup when the first route fails." }, { "harmOrFailure": "False reassurance", "whoIsHurt": "Patients and carers who delay care because a machine summary looks certain", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Show uncertainty, require clinician review for serious cases, and give a fast route to correct the advice." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Care work shifts to families", "whoIsHurt": "Patients and unpaid carers left to provide skilled or round-the-clock support", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Fund trained staff and respite, record failed handoffs, and restore professional care when family help is not enough." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Only automation answers in a crisis", "whoIsHurt": "People in crisis who need immediate trained human help", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Route crisis signs to trained staff, test the handoff often, and keep a phone or in-person backup." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Records that work across the care team. Accessible contact. Reliable case tracking and escalation.", "whyNeeded": "An alert must reach the responsible team with enough context and stay open until the team acts or offers another route.", "ifMissing": "Without reliable tracking, an alert can be lost, copied, or closed without treatment.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: A trained clinician remains responsible. The person can consent and correct records. Clear patient-safety and crisis duties apply.", "whyNeeded": "A trained team must have both the duty and authority to act, protect the person, and correct a harmful record.", "ifMissing": "Without these duties, the route gives advice but no clinician takes responsibility, acts in a crisis, or fixes an error.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Trained staff, care sites, medicines, transport, power, and communications.", "whyNeeded": "A digital bridge helps only when staff, treatment, and hands-on support are ready at the other end.", "ifMissing": "Without those resources, detection grows but the person receives no examination, treatment, or practical care.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-004", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-institutional-08" ], "actorOrPerson": "Local public bodies, service leaders, workers, local people, and taxpayers", "triggerOrContext": "Climate work, care, learning, safety, and major computer projects compete for money, staff, power, materials, and approval. People still answer for the choices.", "plainJob": "Show us which work will actually protect or serve people here, what staff and materials it needs, what is being delayed, and who can challenge the choice.", "observableCompletion": "The public body shows the local need, the steps to deliver it, and the plan for staff and upkeep. It shows what will wait. Workers and local people can challenge or stop the choice.", "repeatedDemand": "Hazards, queues, budgets, workforce and service demand change each planning cycle and after shocks.", "why2031Not2026": "Climate needs and service gaps are clear in 2026. Plans and reports do not prove that work was delivered. In W01, services that need people remain central through 2031.", "worldIds": [ "w01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "E05", "HBD-05", "PC-S01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter where climate work, care, learning, safety, and large computer projects compete for staff, money, power, or materials. The assigned evidence does not show which places face the greatest need or have the strongest delivery." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Public funds, trained workers, local hazards, and access to power, sites, and materials vary by place." ], "unknowns": [ "Which kinds of climate spending produce lasting results", "Whether savings from automation are used to fund staff", "How unpaid care and informal repair are valued without forcing people to track private work" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Elected public bodies make budget choices within the law. Workers, utilities, professional bodies, and affected communities keep their safety, labour, and local approval rights.", "remedyIfItFails": "Publish the reasons and evidence. Allow human review, a challenge to the purchase, worker refusal of unsafe work, and a local power to stop the plan where the law provides one.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "No public body can promise enough staff and resources for every need." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Enough resources for every need", "A plan will receive funding", "The cheapest measured option is always fair" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Climate alerts replace delivered work", "whoIsHurt": "People exposed to heat, flood, fire, or other local hazards", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Name the team, budget, task, and delivery date behind each alert. Publish whether the protective work was completed." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Equipment crowds out staff", "whoIsHurt": "Workers and service users who need people to operate, maintain, or act on new equipment", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish the full staffing and upkeep plan, protect those funds, and review purchases that leave no delivery team." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Unpaid care stays hidden", "whoIsHurt": "Carers whose workload grows when public services fall short", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Record the extra workload with consent, offer respite or paid support, and restore the public service duty." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Benefits go only to places already ready to deliver", "whoIsHurt": "Communities with high need but fewer staff, funds, or working systems", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish how funds and staff are shared, support local delivery capacity, and allow a public challenge to unfair choices." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Comparable records of local need and delivery. Clear records of staff and resources. Public evidence of progress and upkeep.", "whyNeeded": "Public leaders and local people must be able to link a proposed trade-off to local need, other work that must wait, and the result delivered.", "ifMissing": "Without these records, plans and cheap estimates can replace proof of staff, safety, and delivery.", "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "E05", "HBD-05", "PC-S01" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Power to set budgets and buy services. Labour and professional duties. Local input, public review, and a lawful power to stop harmful work.", "whyNeeded": "Only responsible public bodies can make these choices. Workers and affected communities need clear rights to challenge unsafe or unfair trade-offs.", "ifMissing": "Without those powers and rights, scarce resources are assigned without worker safety or public challenge.", "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "E05", "HBD-05", "PC-S01" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Staff, power, materials, sites, transport, and long-term upkeep.", "whyNeeded": "Care, teaching, and climate safety are delivered by people using maintained places, tools, and supplies, not by plans alone.", "ifMissing": "Without staff and physical resources, the chosen work cannot be built, run, or maintained.", "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "E05", "HBD-05", "PC-S01" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-institutional-08", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Local public bodies, service leaders, workers, local people, and taxpayers", "triggerOrContext": "Climate work, care, learning, safety, and major computer projects compete for money, staff, power, materials, and approval. People still answer for the choices.", "plainJob": "Show us which work will actually protect or serve people here, what staff and materials it needs, what is being delayed, and who can challenge the choice.", "observableCompletion": "The public body shows the local need, the steps to deliver it, and the plan for staff and upkeep. It shows what will wait. Workers and local people can challenge or stop the choice.", "repeatedDemand": "Hazards, queues, budgets, workforce and service demand change each planning cycle and after shocks.", "why2031Not2026": "Climate needs and service gaps are clear in 2026. Plans and reports do not prove that work was delivered. In W01, services that need people remain central through 2031.", "worldIds": [ "W01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "E05", "HBD-05", "PC-S01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter where climate work, care, learning, safety, and large computer projects compete for staff, money, power, or materials. The assigned evidence does not show which places face the greatest need or have the strongest delivery." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Public funds, trained workers, local hazards, and access to power, sites, and materials vary by place." ], "unknowns": [ "Which kinds of climate spending produce lasting results", "Whether savings from automation are used to fund staff", "How unpaid care and informal repair are valued without forcing people to track private work" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Elected public bodies make budget choices within the law. Workers, utilities, professional bodies, and affected communities keep their safety, labour, and local approval rights.", "remedyIfItFails": "Publish the reasons and evidence. Allow human review, a challenge to the purchase, worker refusal of unsafe work, and a local power to stop the plan where the law provides one.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "No public body can promise enough staff and resources for every need." }, "nonPromises": [ "Enough resources for every need", "A plan will receive funding", "The cheapest measured option is always fair" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Climate alerts replace delivered work", "whoIsHurt": "People exposed to heat, flood, fire, or other local hazards", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Name the team, budget, task, and delivery date behind each alert. Publish whether the protective work was completed." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Equipment crowds out staff", "whoIsHurt": "Workers and service users who need people to operate, maintain, or act on new equipment", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish the full staffing and upkeep plan, protect those funds, and review purchases that leave no delivery team." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Unpaid care stays hidden", "whoIsHurt": "Carers whose workload grows when public services fall short", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Record the extra workload with consent, offer respite or paid support, and restore the public service duty." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Benefits go only to places already ready to deliver", "whoIsHurt": "Communities with high need but fewer staff, funds, or working systems", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish how funds and staff are shared, support local delivery capacity, and allow a public challenge to unfair choices." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Comparable records of local need and delivery. Clear records of staff and resources. Public evidence of progress and upkeep.", "whyNeeded": "Public leaders and local people must be able to link a proposed trade-off to local need, other work that must wait, and the result delivered.", "ifMissing": "Without these records, plans and cheap estimates can replace proof of staff, safety, and delivery.", "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "E05", "HBD-05", "PC-S01" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Power to set budgets and buy services. Labour and professional duties. Local input, public review, and a lawful power to stop harmful work.", "whyNeeded": "Only responsible public bodies can make these choices. Workers and affected communities need clear rights to challenge unsafe or unfair trade-offs.", "ifMissing": "Without those powers and rights, scarce resources are assigned without worker safety or public challenge.", "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "E05", "HBD-05", "PC-S01" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Staff, power, materials, sites, transport, and long-term upkeep.", "whyNeeded": "Care, teaching, and climate safety are delivered by people using maintained places, tools, and supplies, not by plans alone.", "ifMissing": "Without staff and physical resources, the chosen work cannot be built, run, or maintained.", "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "E05", "HBD-05", "PC-S01" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-005", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-institutional-09" ], "actorOrPerson": "Power and water firms, ratepayers, local people, local businesses, workers and basic systems owners", "triggerOrContext": "Large computer sites and other special systems need power, water, land, and links. Homes, public services, climate safety, and other firms need the same resources.", "plainJob": "Before a large load is connected, show what it uses, who pays for upgrades, what families and services lose or gain, and how local people can object or be paid for harm.", "observableCompletion": "The owner shows local resource use and connection costs. Other uses are compared. Homes and key services are protected. Local terms have legal force. Actual use is checked after connection.", "repeatedDemand": "Each new site, expansion, drought, grid constraint and price rule change means the allocation decision must be reconsidered.", "why2031Not2026": "Reports in 2026 show global growth and local limits. They do not show who gains or loses at each site. In W01, choices about new sites become a repeated limit by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "w01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03", "PC-S04" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter near large computer sites where homes, services, and firms share power, water, land, or grid links. The assigned evidence does not show which places face the greatest pressure." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Grid rules, water limits, local prices, public-service needs, and the power of host communities vary by place." ], "unknowns": [ "The actual computer workload and water use at each site", "Which homes, services, firms, or owners finally pay for an upgrade", "Whether spare power and grid links can be moved without new legal or technical limits" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Utilities, water bodies, planners, and public safety bodies assign shared resources under public rules. The owner of a computer site cannot set public priorities alone.", "remedyIfItFails": "Review prices and planning decisions, set or enforce use limits, pause a harmful load, repair damage, and require payment to the host community.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Public bodies cannot promise a connection for every proposed site." } ], "nonPromises": [ "A connection for every proposed site", "One resource price that fits every place", "Better efficiency always lowers total use" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Families subsidise private loads", "whoIsHurt": "Households and public services charged for upgrades mainly used by a private site", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish who caused each cost, cap unfair charges, and refund costs that should be paid by the site owner." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Water use is hidden", "whoIsHurt": "Nearby households, farms, workers, and ecosystems that rely on the same water", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Measure and publish local use, set enforceable limits, and stop or repair use that breaks the agreed terms." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Reserved power blocks a public need", "whoIsHurt": "Homes and key services denied a grid link while capacity is held for a future private load", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish reserved capacity and expiry dates. Release unused capacity and allow public review of priorities." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Demand grows where local people gain little", "whoIsHurt": "Host communities that bear new costs without jobs, services, or local funds", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Set clear host terms before approval, fund local upkeep and repair, and publish whether promised benefits arrived." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Local meters for each large workload. Records that show who used each resource. Tracking for the reliability of homes and key services.", "whyNeeded": "Local meters and clear records are needed to check actual use, host costs, and the agreed connection terms.", "ifMissing": "Without them, overuse and shifted costs can hide inside broad national totals.", "evidenceIds": [ "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03", "PC-S04" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Public rules for sharing. Power to set prices and plan sites. Enforceable terms and a clear remedy for host communities.", "whyNeeded": "Public bodies must balance competing uses, assign upgrade costs, and enforce the terms agreed with the host area.", "ifMissing": "Without these powers, a private load can move ahead of other uses without review, limits, or payment for harm.", "evidenceIds": [ "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03", "PC-S04" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Grid links, transformers, generation, cooling, water, land, repair staff, and spare parts.", "whyNeeded": "The decision concerns limited local systems. Their true capacity and upkeep set what can connect safely.", "ifMissing": "Without enough physical capacity, the new load harms homes or key services or cannot run safely.", "evidenceIds": [ "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03", "PC-S04" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-institutional-09", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Power and water firms, ratepayers, local people, local businesses, workers and basic systems owners", "triggerOrContext": "Large computer sites and other special systems need power, water, land, and links. Homes, public services, climate safety, and other firms need the same resources.", "plainJob": "Before a large load is connected, show what it uses, who pays for upgrades, what families and services lose or gain, and how local people can object or be paid for harm.", "observableCompletion": "The owner shows local resource use and connection costs. Other uses are compared. Homes and key services are protected. Local terms have legal force. Actual use is checked after connection.", "repeatedDemand": "Each new site, expansion, drought, grid constraint and price rule change means the allocation decision must be reconsidered.", "why2031Not2026": "Reports in 2026 show global growth and local limits. They do not show who gains or loses at each site. In W01, choices about new sites become a repeated limit by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "W01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03", "PC-S04" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter near large computer sites where homes, services, and firms share power, water, land, or grid links. The assigned evidence does not show which places face the greatest pressure." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Grid rules, water limits, local prices, public-service needs, and the power of host communities vary by place." ], "unknowns": [ "The actual computer workload and water use at each site", "Which homes, services, firms, or owners finally pay for an upgrade", "Whether spare power and grid links can be moved without new legal or technical limits" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Utilities, water bodies, planners, and public safety bodies assign shared resources under public rules. The owner of a computer site cannot set public priorities alone.", "remedyIfItFails": "Review prices and planning decisions, set or enforce use limits, pause a harmful load, repair damage, and require payment to the host community.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Public bodies cannot promise a connection for every proposed site." }, "nonPromises": [ "A connection for every proposed site", "One resource price that fits every place", "Better efficiency always lowers total use" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Families subsidise private loads", "whoIsHurt": "Households and public services charged for upgrades mainly used by a private site", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish who caused each cost, cap unfair charges, and refund costs that should be paid by the site owner." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Water use is hidden", "whoIsHurt": "Nearby households, farms, workers, and ecosystems that rely on the same water", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Measure and publish local use, set enforceable limits, and stop or repair use that breaks the agreed terms." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Reserved power blocks a public need", "whoIsHurt": "Homes and key services denied a grid link while capacity is held for a future private load", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish reserved capacity and expiry dates. Release unused capacity and allow public review of priorities." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Demand grows where local people gain little", "whoIsHurt": "Host communities that bear new costs without jobs, services, or local funds", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Set clear host terms before approval, fund local upkeep and repair, and publish whether promised benefits arrived." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Local meters for each large workload. Records that show who used each resource. Tracking for the reliability of homes and key services.", "whyNeeded": "Local meters and clear records are needed to check actual use, host costs, and the agreed connection terms.", "ifMissing": "Without them, overuse and shifted costs can hide inside broad national totals.", "evidenceIds": [ "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03", "PC-S04" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Public rules for sharing. Power to set prices and plan sites. Enforceable terms and a clear remedy for host communities.", "whyNeeded": "Public bodies must balance competing uses, assign upgrade costs, and enforce the terms agreed with the host area.", "ifMissing": "Without these powers, a private load can move ahead of other uses without review, limits, or payment for harm.", "evidenceIds": [ "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03", "PC-S04" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Grid links, transformers, generation, cooling, water, land, repair staff, and spare parts.", "whyNeeded": "The decision concerns limited local systems. Their true capacity and upkeep set what can connect safely.", "ifMissing": "Without enough physical capacity, the new load harms homes or key services or cannot run safely.", "evidenceIds": [ "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03", "PC-S04" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-006", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-institutional-12" ], "actorOrPerson": "Leaders and staff in care, learning, paid work, and public services, plus people sent through digital support tools", "triggerOrContext": "A public service uses a tool that talks in a caring way to guide, rehearse, or support people. Staff time is costly and scarce.", "plainJob": "Show that this tool helps people reach real staff or join real groups. Show that it is not quietly removing the people responsible for care, learning, or corrections.", "observableCompletion": "Reviewers check staffing, successful handoffs, offline contact, crisis failures, saved-record exit, and complaints together. If human support falls, a named person must restore staff or pause the tool.", "repeatedDemand": "Buying choices, staff levels, user needs, tools, and ways of taking part change over time.", "why2031Not2026": "Laws and inquiries in 2026 show new duties, not usual results. In W01, people and public groups stay responsible as these tools spread.", "worldIds": [ "w01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "SC-G05" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter wherever public services use digital support tools as a bridge to staff. The assigned evidence does not show which places will protect staff most effectively." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Service duties, staff levels, saved-data rules, crisis routes, and access to offline help vary by service and legal area." ], "unknowns": [ "How to tell when a tool supports staff and when it replaces them", "How much user choice is lost when a service has too few staff", "Whether providers reveal how they prompt people to return" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The public service remains responsible for outcomes and staff. A supplier cannot replace a legal or professional duty with use of its tool.", "remedyIfItFails": "Allow an independent check and complaint. Let people erase saved data and reach a human. Pause purchases and restore staff after replacement harm.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Not every contact with a digital support tool is harmful." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Every contact with a digital support tool is harmful", "More use by itself proves dependence", "A privacy notice by itself makes the route safe" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "A computer-made front door blocks staff", "whoIsHurt": "People who need a person, an accessible route, or help outside the digital tool", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep a clear staff and offline route, show it before use, and pause the tool when handoffs fail." }, { "harmOrFailure": "A crisis escalation gets no answer", "whoIsHurt": "People in crisis who are told that help is on the way", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Set a staffed response time, test the route, and switch to phone or in-person help when no one answers." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Participation targets replace service results", "whoIsHurt": "Service users pushed to keep using a tool even when care, learning, or work support does not improve", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Judge the service by completed human outcomes, not tool use. Stop targets that reward more contact without help." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Staff cuts are hidden by satisfaction data", "whoIsHurt": "Workers who lose their jobs and users who lose real human support", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish staff levels, handoff failures, and complaints beside satisfaction data. Restore staff when service quality falls." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Records of handoffs over time. Tests that saved data can be moved or erased. Measures of staff, crises, complaints, and real-world participation that protect personal data.", "whyNeeded": "Reviewers must link tool use to successful human handoffs, staff levels, participation, and failure over time.", "ifMissing": "Without those links, high use or satisfaction can hide lost human contact and failed service duties.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "SC-G05" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: The public service keeps its duty. Buyers and independent reviewers can inspect the service. Data, child, crisis, and complaint rights remain in force.", "whyNeeded": "The service must stay answerable for outcomes and allow independent review or a pause.", "ifMissing": "Without those duties, a supplier's tool can replace a public or professional service without legal review.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "SC-G05" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Retained staff, reachable human handoff routes, offline services, and accessible ways to take part.", "whyNeeded": "A bridge works only if staff, services, and real groups are ready to receive people.", "ifMissing": "Without them, the service can record referrals but cannot deliver care, contact, or participation.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "SC-G05" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-institutional-12", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Leaders and staff in care, learning, paid work, and public services, plus people sent through digital support tools", "triggerOrContext": "A public service uses a tool that talks in a caring way to guide, rehearse, or support people. Staff time is costly and scarce.", "plainJob": "Show that this tool helps people reach real staff or join real groups. Show that it is not quietly removing the people responsible for care, learning, or corrections.", "observableCompletion": "Reviewers check staffing, successful handoffs, offline contact, crisis failures, saved-record exit, and complaints together. If human support falls, a named person must restore staff or pause the tool.", "repeatedDemand": "Buying choices, staff levels, user needs, tools, and ways of taking part change over time.", "why2031Not2026": "Laws and inquiries in 2026 show new duties, not usual results. In W01, people and public groups stay responsible as these tools spread.", "worldIds": [ "W01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "SC-G05" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter wherever public services use digital support tools as a bridge to staff. The assigned evidence does not show which places will protect staff most effectively." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Service duties, staff levels, saved-data rules, crisis routes, and access to offline help vary by service and legal area." ], "unknowns": [ "How to tell when a tool supports staff and when it replaces them", "How much user choice is lost when a service has too few staff", "Whether providers reveal how they prompt people to return" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The public service remains responsible for outcomes and staff. A supplier cannot replace a legal or professional duty with use of its tool.", "remedyIfItFails": "Allow an independent check and complaint. Let people erase saved data and reach a human. Pause purchases and restore staff after replacement harm.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Not every contact with a digital support tool is harmful." }, "nonPromises": [ "Every contact with a digital support tool is harmful", "More use by itself proves dependence", "A privacy notice by itself makes the route safe" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "A computer-made front door blocks staff", "whoIsHurt": "People who need a person, an accessible route, or help outside the digital tool", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep a clear staff and offline route, show it before use, and pause the tool when handoffs fail." }, { "harmOrFailure": "A crisis escalation gets no answer", "whoIsHurt": "People in crisis who are told that help is on the way", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Set a staffed response time, test the route, and switch to phone or in-person help when no one answers." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Participation targets replace service results", "whoIsHurt": "Service users pushed to keep using a tool even when care, learning, or work support does not improve", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Judge the service by completed human outcomes, not tool use. Stop targets that reward more contact without help." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Staff cuts are hidden by satisfaction data", "whoIsHurt": "Workers who lose their jobs and users who lose real human support", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish staff levels, handoff failures, and complaints beside satisfaction data. Restore staff when service quality falls." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Records of handoffs over time. Tests that saved data can be moved or erased. Measures of staff, crises, complaints, and real-world participation that protect personal data.", "whyNeeded": "Reviewers must link tool use to successful human handoffs, staff levels, participation, and failure over time.", "ifMissing": "Without those links, high use or satisfaction can hide lost human contact and failed service duties.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "SC-G05" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: The public service keeps its duty. Buyers and independent reviewers can inspect the service. Data, child, crisis, and complaint rights remain in force.", "whyNeeded": "The service must stay answerable for outcomes and allow independent review or a pause.", "ifMissing": "Without those duties, a supplier's tool can replace a public or professional service without legal review.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "SC-G05" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Retained staff, reachable human handoff routes, offline services, and accessible ways to take part.", "whyNeeded": "A bridge works only if staff, services, and real groups are ready to receive people.", "ifMissing": "Without them, the service can record referrals but cannot deliver care, contact, or participation.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "SC-G05" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-007", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-institutional-13" ], "actorOrPerson": "Families, public funds, pension funds, co-ops, taxpayers, workers, and people near major sites", "triggerOrContext": "In W02, paid knowledge work and job-based income may fall while income from machine systems and buildings rises. The plan works only if many people share enough of that income to keep spending.", "plainJob": "Show what assets our public fund, pension fund, co-op, or family owns. Show the income, costs, and who was paid. Let me challenge missing or unfair value.", "observableCompletion": "Records show who really owns each asset, who controls it, the income and costs, who was paid, and what is owed to nearby people. Local people and outside reviewers can inspect and challenge the records.", "repeatedDemand": "Income, owners, values, money sent abroad, and the people who receive funds change each period.", "why2031Not2026": "Major infrastructure deals seen by 2026 show power held by a few owners and risks when users cannot switch. A sharp work break and broad sharing of machine income are possible W02 paths, not results shown by the assigned proof.", "worldIds": [ "w02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-20", "EWF-22", "PC-S01", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter wherever income from machine systems is held by a small group of owners. The assigned evidence does not show that a broad ownership plan already works in any place." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Ownership law, public and pension funds, local host costs, and access to clear ownership records vary by legal area." ], "unknowns": [ "How income from owners in more than one country would be valued and taxed", "Whether public claims survive when an owner leaves or sells", "How to value host costs without overruling local consent" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Lawmakers, courts, and well-run public or member-owned funds set and enforce the claims. Asset managers cannot replace public rights with private control.", "remedyIfItFails": "Correct ownership records and payments, obtain an independent valuation, challenge a broken legal duty, and seek review by a court or regulator.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Broad ownership cannot promise equal wealth." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Equal wealth", "Stable income from assets", "Public ownership by itself creates enough household income", "Ownership claims remove physical limits" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Ownership exists only on paper", "whoIsHurt": "Families or local groups given a label but no voting power, information, or income", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish control and income rights, provide the full ownership record, and allow a court or regulator to enforce the claim." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Middle groups capture the income", "whoIsHurt": "Families, pension members, or public funds whose share is reduced by hidden fees or transfers", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Trace gross income, costs, fees, and final payments. Recover unfair charges and correct the payment record." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Host communities bear the costs", "whoIsHurt": "People and public services near the assets that use local power, water, land, or roads", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Record local costs, fund upkeep and repair, and include host obligations in the enforceable ownership terms." }, { "harmOrFailure": "People are left out of ownership claims", "whoIsHurt": "Small holders and local public funds whose records do not appear in the final claim", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Accept more than one form of proof, provide a human review, and correct both the ownership and payment records." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Checked records of who owns each asset. Records of income, costs, fees, and final payments. Access for independent checks.", "whyNeeded": "A broad claim can reach families only if the same records link owners, income, deductions, payments, and the assets that earned the money.", "ifMissing": "Without a clear chain of records, middle groups or private owners can capture income without being seen.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-20", "EWF-22", "PC-S01", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Enforceable ownership and income rights. Duties to act with care and set a fair value. Tax, sharing, and court enforcement.", "whyNeeded": "The claim needs control and income rights backed by law, not just a promise from asset owners.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, local people may hold a paper label but have no income, information, or remedy.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-20", "EWF-22", "PC-S01", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Working computer and utility systems, upkeep, records of local costs, and measured output.", "whyNeeded": "The income comes from real assets. Their operation, upkeep, and local costs set how much value can be shared.", "ifMissing": "Without the physical link, payments lose touch with performance, upkeep costs, and harm borne by host communities.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-20", "EWF-22", "PC-S01", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-institutional-13", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Families, public funds, pension funds, co-ops, taxpayers, workers, and people near major sites", "triggerOrContext": "In W02, paid knowledge work and job-based income may fall while income from machine systems and buildings rises. The plan works only if many people share enough of that income to keep spending.", "plainJob": "Show what assets our public fund, pension fund, co-op, or family owns. Show the income, costs, and who was paid. Let me challenge missing or unfair value.", "observableCompletion": "Records show who really owns each asset, who controls it, the income and costs, who was paid, and what is owed to nearby people. Local people and outside reviewers can inspect and challenge the records.", "repeatedDemand": "Income, owners, values, money sent abroad, and the people who receive funds change each period.", "why2031Not2026": "Major infrastructure deals seen by 2026 show power held by a few owners and risks when users cannot switch. A sharp work break and broad sharing of machine income are possible W02 paths, not results shown by the assigned proof.", "worldIds": [ "W02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-20", "EWF-22", "PC-S01", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter wherever income from machine systems is held by a small group of owners. The assigned evidence does not show that a broad ownership plan already works in any place." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Ownership law, public and pension funds, local host costs, and access to clear ownership records vary by legal area." ], "unknowns": [ "How income from owners in more than one country would be valued and taxed", "Whether public claims survive when an owner leaves or sells", "How to value host costs without overruling local consent" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Lawmakers, courts, and well-run public or member-owned funds set and enforce the claims. Asset managers cannot replace public rights with private control.", "remedyIfItFails": "Correct ownership records and payments, obtain an independent valuation, challenge a broken legal duty, and seek review by a court or regulator.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Broad ownership cannot promise equal wealth." }, "nonPromises": [ "Equal wealth", "Stable income from assets", "Public ownership by itself creates enough household income", "Ownership claims remove physical limits" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Ownership exists only on paper", "whoIsHurt": "Families or local groups given a label but no voting power, information, or income", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish control and income rights, provide the full ownership record, and allow a court or regulator to enforce the claim." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Middle groups capture the income", "whoIsHurt": "Families, pension members, or public funds whose share is reduced by hidden fees or transfers", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Trace gross income, costs, fees, and final payments. Recover unfair charges and correct the payment record." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Host communities bear the costs", "whoIsHurt": "People and public services near the assets that use local power, water, land, or roads", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Record local costs, fund upkeep and repair, and include host obligations in the enforceable ownership terms." }, { "harmOrFailure": "People are left out of ownership claims", "whoIsHurt": "Small holders and local public funds whose records do not appear in the final claim", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Accept more than one form of proof, provide a human review, and correct both the ownership and payment records." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Checked records of who owns each asset. Records of income, costs, fees, and final payments. Access for independent checks.", "whyNeeded": "A broad claim can reach families only if the same records link owners, income, deductions, payments, and the assets that earned the money.", "ifMissing": "Without a clear chain of records, middle groups or private owners can capture income without being seen.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-20", "EWF-22", "PC-S01", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Enforceable ownership and income rights. Duties to act with care and set a fair value. Tax, sharing, and court enforcement.", "whyNeeded": "The claim needs control and income rights backed by law, not just a promise from asset owners.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, local people may hold a paper label but have no income, information, or remedy.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-20", "EWF-22", "PC-S01", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Working computer and utility systems, upkeep, records of local costs, and measured output.", "whyNeeded": "The income comes from real assets. Their operation, upkeep, and local costs set how much value can be shared.", "ifMissing": "Without the physical link, payments lose touch with performance, upkeep costs, and harm borne by host communities.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-20", "EWF-22", "PC-S01", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-008", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-institutional-15" ], "actorOrPerson": "Public budget teams, lawmakers, public and group owners, families, service providers, and investors in basic systems", "triggerOrContext": "In W02, wages and job taxes may fall while income from machine systems rises. Income must reach families soon enough to support spending. Public money must still fund energy, homes, care, learning, and climate work.", "plainJob": "Show whether income from machine systems reaches families. Show whether people can still buy basic needs. Show whether public services and real-world work get funds where needs remain.", "observableCompletion": "Public leaders can match income from ownership, income paid outside jobs, unpaid bills, and real spending with public income, staffed services, and funded work. They can explain what they will fix when these links break.", "repeatedDemand": "Income, prices, unpaid bills, tax income, funded work, and regional need change often after the work break.", "why2031Not2026": "The assigned proof does not show that this full chain works across an economy. W02 depends on the plan closing each link. Cheap tech alone does not create spending.", "worldIds": [ "w02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "EWF-20", "EWF-22", "PC-S01", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter wherever income must move from machine owners to families and public services. The assigned evidence does not show this full chain working in any economy." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Tax rules, public funds, ownership, living costs, service capacity, and local needs vary by legal area and place." ], "unknowns": [ "How large and sudden a W02 work break would be", "How much household income supports real spending rather than only raising asset prices", "Whether investment continues in places where household demand weakens" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Lawmakers and public budget teams set taxes, income support, and budgets. Owners of major systems report their income and delivery, but they do not decide what level of public support is enough.", "remedyIfItFails": "Hold a public budget review, correct support payments, address unfair ownership, and review funded work that failed to deliver.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "No one plan will fit every economy." } ], "nonPromises": [ "One global plan", "An investment announcement becomes a service", "Stable national totals mean fair local sharing" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Capital spending hides a fall in family demand", "whoIsHurt": "Families and small firms whose spending power falls while headline investment looks strong", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish family spending, unpaid bills, and local service use beside capital spending. Adjust income support when demand falls." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Asset prices rise without home security", "whoIsHurt": "Renters and lower-income families whose housing costs rise faster than their support", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Track housing and other basic costs, adjust support, and fund real housing rather than relying on higher asset values." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Lost payroll tax defunds services", "whoIsHurt": "Patients, learners, service workers, and local people who depend on public budgets", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Set a budget trigger that replaces lost payroll tax and protects staffing for key services." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Cheap machine work arrives but local income does not", "whoIsHurt": "People in places that buy machine-based work but receive little ownership income or public funding", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish the local income and service gap. In the W02 scenario, adjust transfers and funded work when the gap grows." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Privacy-safe records of ownership income, household income, unpaid bills, spending, public funds, and services. Local views and a history of revisions.", "whyNeeded": "Public leaders must see where income, spending power, demand, public funds, and completed work stop linking together.", "ifMissing": "Without those views, stable national figures can hide falling household demand and failed local services.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "EWF-20", "EWF-22", "PC-S01", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Power to tax and set ownership claims. Budget rules and public checks. Rules against unfair control and unfair sharing.", "whyNeeded": "Moving income into household support and public services requires legal claims, budget power, and a clear way to fix errors.", "ifMissing": "Without those powers, public bodies can see a break but cannot redirect income, budgets, or concentrated ownership.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "EWF-20", "EWF-22", "PC-S01", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Funded housing, energy, and services. Staff and upkeep. Local service and unpaid-bill records.", "whyNeeded": "Demand matters only if money ends in homes, energy, care, and other staffed services.", "ifMissing": "Without delivery, accounts may look healthy while housing, care, energy, or climate work still fails.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "EWF-20", "EWF-22", "PC-S01", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-institutional-15", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Public budget teams, lawmakers, public and group owners, families, service providers, and investors in basic systems", "triggerOrContext": "In W02, wages and job taxes may fall while income from machine systems rises. Income must reach families soon enough to support spending. Public money must still fund energy, homes, care, learning, and climate work.", "plainJob": "Show whether income from machine systems reaches families. Show whether people can still buy basic needs. Show whether public services and real-world work get funds where needs remain.", "observableCompletion": "Public leaders can match income from ownership, income paid outside jobs, unpaid bills, and real spending with public income, staffed services, and funded work. They can explain what they will fix when these links break.", "repeatedDemand": "Income, prices, unpaid bills, tax income, funded work, and regional need change often after the work break.", "why2031Not2026": "The assigned proof does not show that this full chain works across an economy. W02 depends on the plan closing each link. Cheap tech alone does not create spending.", "worldIds": [ "W02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "EWF-20", "EWF-22", "PC-S01", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter wherever income must move from machine owners to families and public services. The assigned evidence does not show this full chain working in any economy." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Tax rules, public funds, ownership, living costs, service capacity, and local needs vary by legal area and place." ], "unknowns": [ "How large and sudden a W02 work break would be", "How much household income supports real spending rather than only raising asset prices", "Whether investment continues in places where household demand weakens" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Lawmakers and public budget teams set taxes, income support, and budgets. Owners of major systems report their income and delivery, but they do not decide what level of public support is enough.", "remedyIfItFails": "Hold a public budget review, correct support payments, address unfair ownership, and review funded work that failed to deliver.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "No one plan will fit every economy." }, "nonPromises": [ "One global plan", "An investment announcement becomes a service", "Stable national totals mean fair local sharing" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Capital spending hides a fall in family demand", "whoIsHurt": "Families and small firms whose spending power falls while headline investment looks strong", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish family spending, unpaid bills, and local service use beside capital spending. Adjust income support when demand falls." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Asset prices rise without home security", "whoIsHurt": "Renters and lower-income families whose housing costs rise faster than their support", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Track housing and other basic costs, adjust support, and fund real housing rather than relying on higher asset values." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Lost payroll tax defunds services", "whoIsHurt": "Patients, learners, service workers, and local people who depend on public budgets", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Set a budget trigger that replaces lost payroll tax and protects staffing for key services." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Cheap machine work arrives but local income does not", "whoIsHurt": "People in places that buy machine-based work but receive little ownership income or public funding", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish the local income and service gap. In the W02 scenario, adjust transfers and funded work when the gap grows." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Privacy-safe records of ownership income, household income, unpaid bills, spending, public funds, and services. Local views and a history of revisions.", "whyNeeded": "Public leaders must see where income, spending power, demand, public funds, and completed work stop linking together.", "ifMissing": "Without those views, stable national figures can hide falling household demand and failed local services.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "EWF-20", "EWF-22", "PC-S01", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Power to tax and set ownership claims. Budget rules and public checks. Rules against unfair control and unfair sharing.", "whyNeeded": "Moving income into household support and public services requires legal claims, budget power, and a clear way to fix errors.", "ifMissing": "Without those powers, public bodies can see a break but cannot redirect income, budgets, or concentrated ownership.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "EWF-20", "EWF-22", "PC-S01", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Funded housing, energy, and services. Staff and upkeep. Local service and unpaid-bill records.", "whyNeeded": "Demand matters only if money ends in homes, energy, care, and other staffed services.", "ifMissing": "Without delivery, accounts may look healthy while housing, care, energy, or climate work still fails.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "EWF-20", "EWF-22", "PC-S01", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-009", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-institutional-20" ], "actorOrPerson": "Health services, schools, local public bodies, public and group owners, workers, and local people", "triggerOrContext": "Income from machine systems may support demand in W02. Yet sites, teachers, carers, doctors, builders, and climate workers may still be scarce.", "plainJob": "Turn shared machine income into staff, safe and well-kept places, and finished work where people live. Show that the promised service really happened.", "observableCompletion": "Funds pay for staff and upkeep. People receive the care, learning, or climate safety. Limits on workers and sites are clear. Proof of the result lasts beyond a public claim or online contact.", "repeatedDemand": "Care needs, school groups, hazards, upkeep, staff, and supplies change each year and after shocks.", "why2031Not2026": "Guidance, need reports, and policy plans in 2026 do not prove delivery. W02 works only if demand turns into enough staff, sites, tools, and supplies.", "worldIds": [ "w02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "HBD-05", "PC-S01", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter wherever promised income or funding must become staffed care, learning, or climate work. The assigned evidence does not show where local delivery will be strong enough." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Public funds, trained staff, buildings, transport, supplies, and local needs vary by service and place." ], "unknowns": [ "Whether money reaches the places with the greatest service need", "Which local groups can turn new funds into safe delivery", "How to compare local results without forcing one model on every place" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Public bodies and responsible service groups fund delivery under democratic, professional, labour, and local planning rules.", "remedyIfItFails": "Service users can appeal denial or unsafe replacement. Workers can challenge low staffing. Funders can recover money or pause failed delivery. Communities can challenge siting and harm.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Funding cannot create staff, sites, or supplies at once." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Instant physical abundance", "Funding by itself creates a skilled workforce", "An online service is equal to hands-on care or teaching" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Computer-made care or learning replaces staff", "whoIsHurt": "Patients and learners who need trained people, judgement, or hands-on help", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Set clear staffed-service requirements, test human handoffs, and restore staff when the digital route replaces needed care or teaching." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Buildings open without staff or upkeep", "whoIsHurt": "Service users and workers left with an empty or unsafe facility", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Release funds in stages only when trained staff, supplies, and upkeep are ready. Pause opening when they are not." }, { "harmOrFailure": "An alert leads to no real change", "whoIsHurt": "People still exposed to a health, learning, or climate risk after it is reported", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Name the team, action, and deadline. Publish whether the work was completed and offer review when it was not." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Funding goes mainly to places already ready to deliver", "whoIsHurt": "Communities with high need but fewer staff, sites, or supplies", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Reserve funds for local training and delivery support, publish the allocation, and allow a challenge to persistent gaps." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Records that link funding to delivery. Evidence of service results, staffing, upkeep, and failure.", "whyNeeded": "Shared income must be traced to a staffed and maintained service, not just an announcement or online contact.", "ifMissing": "Without that link, spending can be reported as investment while no person receives care, learning, or climate safety.", "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "HBD-05", "PC-S01", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Public funding and buying power. Professional and labour duties. A service appeal and local planning rights.", "whyNeeded": "Delivery needs a responsible buyer, trained staff, and enforceable rights for users and host communities.", "ifMissing": "Without them, money can be captured, staff can be replaced unsafely, and failed delivery has no remedy.", "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "HBD-05", "PC-S01", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Teachers, carers, clinicians, builders, repair teams, sites, transport, power, materials, and long-term upkeep.", "whyNeeded": "Care, learning, and climate work depend on people and maintained places.", "ifMissing": "Without those people and places, cheap digital work and available money do not produce the promised service or safety.", "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "HBD-05", "PC-S01", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-institutional-20", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Health services, schools, local public bodies, public and group owners, workers, and local people", "triggerOrContext": "Income from machine systems may support demand in W02. Yet sites, teachers, carers, doctors, builders, and climate workers may still be scarce.", "plainJob": "Turn shared machine income into staff, safe and well-kept places, and finished work where people live. Show that the promised service really happened.", "observableCompletion": "Funds pay for staff and upkeep. People receive the care, learning, or climate safety. Limits on workers and sites are clear. Proof of the result lasts beyond a public claim or online contact.", "repeatedDemand": "Care needs, school groups, hazards, upkeep, staff, and supplies change each year and after shocks.", "why2031Not2026": "Guidance, need reports, and policy plans in 2026 do not prove delivery. W02 works only if demand turns into enough staff, sites, tools, and supplies.", "worldIds": [ "W02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "HBD-05", "PC-S01", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter wherever promised income or funding must become staffed care, learning, or climate work. The assigned evidence does not show where local delivery will be strong enough." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Public funds, trained staff, buildings, transport, supplies, and local needs vary by service and place." ], "unknowns": [ "Whether money reaches the places with the greatest service need", "Which local groups can turn new funds into safe delivery", "How to compare local results without forcing one model on every place" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Public bodies and responsible service groups fund delivery under democratic, professional, labour, and local planning rules.", "remedyIfItFails": "Service users can appeal denial or unsafe replacement. Workers can challenge low staffing. Funders can recover money or pause failed delivery. Communities can challenge siting and harm.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Funding cannot create staff, sites, or supplies at once." }, "nonPromises": [ "Instant physical abundance", "Funding by itself creates a skilled workforce", "An online service is equal to hands-on care or teaching" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Computer-made care or learning replaces staff", "whoIsHurt": "Patients and learners who need trained people, judgement, or hands-on help", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Set clear staffed-service requirements, test human handoffs, and restore staff when the digital route replaces needed care or teaching." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Buildings open without staff or upkeep", "whoIsHurt": "Service users and workers left with an empty or unsafe facility", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Release funds in stages only when trained staff, supplies, and upkeep are ready. Pause opening when they are not." }, { "harmOrFailure": "An alert leads to no real change", "whoIsHurt": "People still exposed to a health, learning, or climate risk after it is reported", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Name the team, action, and deadline. Publish whether the work was completed and offer review when it was not." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Funding goes mainly to places already ready to deliver", "whoIsHurt": "Communities with high need but fewer staff, sites, or supplies", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Reserve funds for local training and delivery support, publish the allocation, and allow a challenge to persistent gaps." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Records that link funding to delivery. Evidence of service results, staffing, upkeep, and failure.", "whyNeeded": "Shared income must be traced to a staffed and maintained service, not just an announcement or online contact.", "ifMissing": "Without that link, spending can be reported as investment while no person receives care, learning, or climate safety.", "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "HBD-05", "PC-S01", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Public funding and buying power. Professional and labour duties. A service appeal and local planning rights.", "whyNeeded": "Delivery needs a responsible buyer, trained staff, and enforceable rights for users and host communities.", "ifMissing": "Without them, money can be captured, staff can be replaced unsafely, and failed delivery has no remedy.", "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "HBD-05", "PC-S01", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Teachers, carers, clinicians, builders, repair teams, sites, transport, power, materials, and long-term upkeep.", "whyNeeded": "Care, learning, and climate work depend on people and maintained places.", "ifMissing": "Without those people and places, cheap digital work and available money do not produce the promised service or safety.", "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "HBD-05", "PC-S01", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023", "src-who-multimodal-health-guidance-2024" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-010", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-institutional-21" ], "actorOrPerson": "People near major sites, power and water firms, families, repair teams, public services, and owners of machine systems", "triggerOrContext": "Cheap machine-based knowledge work may drive heavy use and spending in W02. Chips, power, grids, cooling, water, buildings, machines, and upkeep remain tied to real places and stay scarce.", "plainJob": "Let us see the local cost and benefit before power, water, land, or links are assigned, protect key use, give hosts a real say, and repair harm when promised limits fail.", "observableCompletion": "The owner shows the workload and resources needed. Other uses are compared. Key services stay reliable. Host areas can agree or use a lawful review. Funds cover upkeep and harm. Actual effects are checked after use.", "repeatedDemand": "Workload, weather, drought, grid limits, building work, upkeep, and local needs keep changing.", "why2031Not2026": "Energy and site figures in 2026 are broad totals or forecasts. They do not show local sharing results. In W02, far more demand must still be shared in a fair and trusted way.", "worldIds": [ "w02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "C04", "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03", "PC-S04" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter near sites that use large amounts of power, water, land, cooling, or grid capacity. The assigned evidence does not show which host places face the greatest pressure." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Local resource limits, public-service needs, prices, host rights, and the ability to repair harm vary by place." ], "unknowns": [ "The power, water, land, and cooling used by each workload", "The combined effect on a local grid or water basin", "How owners based elsewhere would share income with host communities", "Which other local uses would lose access to scarce resources" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Utilities, water bodies, and planning authorities assign public resources. Host communities, workers, courts, and safety bodies keep their lawful rights to consent, challenge, or stop harmful use.", "remedyIfItFails": "Set legal limits, correct unfair prices, pay for harm, restore damaged services or land, pause the use, and hold a public review.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "No authority can promise unlimited power, water, land, or sites." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Unlimited physical resources", "One sharing rule that fits every place", "Broad ownership cancels local harm", "Better efficiency always lowers total demand" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Host communities are shut out", "whoIsHurt": "People near a major site who bear local cost but cannot shape the decision", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Give early notice, access to the evidence, a public hearing, and a lawful way to challenge or pause the plan." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Homes or services are rationed first", "whoIsHurt": "Households, hospitals, schools, and small firms that share scarce power or water", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Protect a clear baseline for key use, publish shortage rules, and require the large user to cut back first when agreed limits are reached." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Resource overuse is hidden", "whoIsHurt": "People and ecosystems harmed by water, land, or energy use that is not measured locally", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Use local meters, publish actual use, stop breaches, and fund repair of the damaged resource." }, { "harmOrFailure": "A project is abandoned after costs are sunk", "whoIsHurt": "Taxpayers, workers, and host communities left with debt, half-built sites, or damaged land", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Use staged approvals and repair bonds. Require a funded plan to finish, repurpose, or safely remove the site." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Benefits leave while upkeep and risk stay local", "whoIsHurt": "Host communities and public services that carry long-term costs without enough local income", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish where income goes, fund local upkeep and repair, and let host bodies enforce the agreed payment." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Meters that show who used each resource. Records of competing uses, incidents, and broken terms.", "whyNeeded": "Host communities and public bodies need local evidence to compare uses and enforce limits after a site opens.", "ifMissing": "Without it, overuse, rationing, or broken terms cannot be traced to the responsible user.", "evidenceIds": [ "C04", "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03", "PC-S04" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Duties to share scarce resources fairly. Rights for host communities. Review of prices and environmental harm. Powers to limit, pause, repair, and require payment.", "whyNeeded": "Scarce public resources need a fair process and real powers to stop or repair harm.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, owners can take power, land, or grid links while hosts carry the costs.", "evidenceIds": [ "C04", "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03", "PC-S04" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Chips, grids, transformers, power, cooling, water, land, buildings, machines, spare parts, and repair teams.", "whyNeeded": "W02's digital abundance still depends on a complete physical chain and long-term upkeep.", "ifMissing": "Without that chain, promised capacity cannot be built, operated, or restored.", "evidenceIds": [ "C04", "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03", "PC-S04" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-institutional-21", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "People near major sites, power and water firms, families, repair teams, public services, and owners of machine systems", "triggerOrContext": "Cheap machine-based knowledge work may drive heavy use and spending in W02. Chips, power, grids, cooling, water, buildings, machines, and upkeep remain tied to real places and stay scarce.", "plainJob": "Let us see the local cost and benefit before power, water, land, or links are assigned, protect key use, give hosts a real say, and repair harm when promised limits fail.", "observableCompletion": "The owner shows the workload and resources needed. Other uses are compared. Key services stay reliable. Host areas can agree or use a lawful review. Funds cover upkeep and harm. Actual effects are checked after use.", "repeatedDemand": "Workload, weather, drought, grid limits, building work, upkeep, and local needs keep changing.", "why2031Not2026": "Energy and site figures in 2026 are broad totals or forecasts. They do not show local sharing results. In W02, far more demand must still be shared in a fair and trusted way.", "worldIds": [ "W02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "C04", "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03", "PC-S04" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter near sites that use large amounts of power, water, land, cooling, or grid capacity. The assigned evidence does not show which host places face the greatest pressure." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Local resource limits, public-service needs, prices, host rights, and the ability to repair harm vary by place." ], "unknowns": [ "The power, water, land, and cooling used by each workload", "The combined effect on a local grid or water basin", "How owners based elsewhere would share income with host communities", "Which other local uses would lose access to scarce resources" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Utilities, water bodies, and planning authorities assign public resources. Host communities, workers, courts, and safety bodies keep their lawful rights to consent, challenge, or stop harmful use.", "remedyIfItFails": "Set legal limits, correct unfair prices, pay for harm, restore damaged services or land, pause the use, and hold a public review.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "No authority can promise unlimited power, water, land, or sites." }, "nonPromises": [ "Unlimited physical resources", "One sharing rule that fits every place", "Broad ownership cancels local harm", "Better efficiency always lowers total demand" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Host communities are shut out", "whoIsHurt": "People near a major site who bear local cost but cannot shape the decision", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Give early notice, access to the evidence, a public hearing, and a lawful way to challenge or pause the plan." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Homes or services are rationed first", "whoIsHurt": "Households, hospitals, schools, and small firms that share scarce power or water", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Protect a clear baseline for key use, publish shortage rules, and require the large user to cut back first when agreed limits are reached." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Resource overuse is hidden", "whoIsHurt": "People and ecosystems harmed by water, land, or energy use that is not measured locally", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Use local meters, publish actual use, stop breaches, and fund repair of the damaged resource." }, { "harmOrFailure": "A project is abandoned after costs are sunk", "whoIsHurt": "Taxpayers, workers, and host communities left with debt, half-built sites, or damaged land", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Use staged approvals and repair bonds. Require a funded plan to finish, repurpose, or safely remove the site." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Benefits leave while upkeep and risk stay local", "whoIsHurt": "Host communities and public services that carry long-term costs without enough local income", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish where income goes, fund local upkeep and repair, and let host bodies enforce the agreed payment." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Meters that show who used each resource. Records of competing uses, incidents, and broken terms.", "whyNeeded": "Host communities and public bodies need local evidence to compare uses and enforce limits after a site opens.", "ifMissing": "Without it, overuse, rationing, or broken terms cannot be traced to the responsible user.", "evidenceIds": [ "C04", "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03", "PC-S04" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Duties to share scarce resources fairly. Rights for host communities. Review of prices and environmental harm. Powers to limit, pause, repair, and require payment.", "whyNeeded": "Scarce public resources need a fair process and real powers to stop or repair harm.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, owners can take power, land, or grid links while hosts carry the costs.", "evidenceIds": [ "C04", "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03", "PC-S04" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Chips, grids, transformers, power, cooling, water, land, buildings, machines, spare parts, and repair teams.", "whyNeeded": "W02's digital abundance still depends on a complete physical chain and long-term upkeep.", "ifMissing": "Without that chain, promised capacity cannot be built, operated, or restored.", "evidenceIds": [ "C04", "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03", "PC-S04" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-011", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-institutional-23" ], "actorOrPerson": "Local people, people receiving support, civic volunteers, migrants, disabled people, and people who choose not to take part", "triggerOrContext": "Groups may want to credit useful work after paid jobs shrink. Income and services may also use online records. This creates pressure to join ID, payment, task, and status records.", "plainJob": "Let me receive key income and services without exposing each task, and let me correct or challenge any record that changes my rights or public standing.", "observableCompletion": "A person can see which record is used for each choice. They share only needed facts. They keep lawful income when they decline useful work. A human can fix errors. Leaving one group does not remove other rights.", "repeatedDemand": "A new task, support review, move, ID change, or record exchange can create an error or unfair use of power.", "why2031Not2026": "Public online systems and gaps in support show the duty in 2026. W02 adds a new risk: groups may join income, useful work, and status into one gate.", "worldIds": [ "w02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "SC-G07", "SC-G08" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter wherever income, services, civic work, and public status use linked records. The assigned evidence shows a risk of exclusion but does not compare the risk faced by different groups." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Identity rules, privacy rights, offline routes, human appeals, and the choice not to take part vary by service and legal area." ], "unknowns": [ "Which record separations remain workable across public bodies", "Whether an offline route receives the same treatment", "How rights and appeals work when records cross borders" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Public bodies may use records only for a stated lawful purpose. No civic group or private provider may make income, identity, or key services depend on unrelated participation.", "remedyIfItFails": "Give notice and access to the record. Let the person correct it, share only what is needed, use an offline route, seek a human appeal, move records, and erase data where the law allows.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Some public duties still require a person to identify themselves." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Complete anonymity for every public duty", "No eligibility checks", "A participation record makes a decision fair or lawful" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Civic service becomes compulsory", "whoIsHurt": "People who need income or services but do not choose the approved activity", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep income and key services separate from participation. Provide a clear right to say no and a human appeal." }, { "harmOrFailure": "One record error blocks income and services", "whoIsHurt": "People whose linked identity, payment, or participation record is wrong", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep records separate, restore income and services through a manual route, and correct each affected record." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Status records become surveillance", "whoIsHurt": "People whose private activity is used to judge their public standing", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Limit data to the stated purpose, show every use, allow deletion where lawful, and penalise hidden reuse." }, { "harmOrFailure": "A supplier traps the records", "whoIsHurt": "People and public bodies that cannot move data or change provider", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Require open export formats, a tested move process, and a human route that works during the switch." }, { "harmOrFailure": "People with weak records must reveal too much", "whoIsHurt": "People with missing or informal records who need to prove a right or useful role", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Accept alternate proof, collect only what is needed, and use a human review instead of forcing broad disclosure." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Records kept separate by purpose. Clear access rules. A history of each decision and correction. Controls to share only what is needed and move records.", "whyNeeded": "A person can refuse and fix an error only if unrelated records stay separate and every high-impact use is visible.", "ifMissing": "Without separation, one identifier or error can spread across income, services, participation, and public status.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "SC-G07", "SC-G08" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Limits on purpose and data use. No unrelated participation condition. Fair process, record transfer, and a human appeal.", "whyNeeded": "The separation must be backed by law. Clear rules must control who can join records or use them to block key rights.", "ifMissing": "Without those rules, organisations can quietly recombine records and make civic participation compulsory.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "SC-G07", "SC-G08" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: A staffed offline correction route. An accessible hearing or contact channel. Service continuity during a device or network failure.", "whyNeeded": "A person blocked by the digital record needs a reachable route outside the same failing system.", "ifMissing": "Without it, the appeal exists only inside the broken identity or device gate.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "SC-G07", "SC-G08" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-institutional-23", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Local people, people receiving support, civic volunteers, migrants, disabled people, and people who choose not to take part", "triggerOrContext": "Groups may want to credit useful work after paid jobs shrink. Income and services may also use online records. This creates pressure to join ID, payment, task, and status records.", "plainJob": "Let me receive key income and services without exposing each task, and let me correct or challenge any record that changes my rights or public standing.", "observableCompletion": "A person can see which record is used for each choice. They share only needed facts. They keep lawful income when they decline useful work. A human can fix errors. Leaving one group does not remove other rights.", "repeatedDemand": "A new task, support review, move, ID change, or record exchange can create an error or unfair use of power.", "why2031Not2026": "Public online systems and gaps in support show the duty in 2026. W02 adds a new risk: groups may join income, useful work, and status into one gate.", "worldIds": [ "W02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "SC-G07", "SC-G08" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter wherever income, services, civic work, and public status use linked records. The assigned evidence shows a risk of exclusion but does not compare the risk faced by different groups." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Identity rules, privacy rights, offline routes, human appeals, and the choice not to take part vary by service and legal area." ], "unknowns": [ "Which record separations remain workable across public bodies", "Whether an offline route receives the same treatment", "How rights and appeals work when records cross borders" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Public bodies may use records only for a stated lawful purpose. No civic group or private provider may make income, identity, or key services depend on unrelated participation.", "remedyIfItFails": "Give notice and access to the record. Let the person correct it, share only what is needed, use an offline route, seek a human appeal, move records, and erase data where the law allows.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Some public duties still require a person to identify themselves." }, "nonPromises": [ "Complete anonymity for every public duty", "No eligibility checks", "A participation record makes a decision fair or lawful" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Civic service becomes compulsory", "whoIsHurt": "People who need income or services but do not choose the approved activity", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep income and key services separate from participation. Provide a clear right to say no and a human appeal." }, { "harmOrFailure": "One record error blocks income and services", "whoIsHurt": "People whose linked identity, payment, or participation record is wrong", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep records separate, restore income and services through a manual route, and correct each affected record." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Status records become surveillance", "whoIsHurt": "People whose private activity is used to judge their public standing", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Limit data to the stated purpose, show every use, allow deletion where lawful, and penalise hidden reuse." }, { "harmOrFailure": "A supplier traps the records", "whoIsHurt": "People and public bodies that cannot move data or change provider", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Require open export formats, a tested move process, and a human route that works during the switch." }, { "harmOrFailure": "People with weak records must reveal too much", "whoIsHurt": "People with missing or informal records who need to prove a right or useful role", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Accept alternate proof, collect only what is needed, and use a human review instead of forcing broad disclosure." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Records kept separate by purpose. Clear access rules. A history of each decision and correction. Controls to share only what is needed and move records.", "whyNeeded": "A person can refuse and fix an error only if unrelated records stay separate and every high-impact use is visible.", "ifMissing": "Without separation, one identifier or error can spread across income, services, participation, and public status.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "SC-G07", "SC-G08" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Limits on purpose and data use. No unrelated participation condition. Fair process, record transfer, and a human appeal.", "whyNeeded": "The separation must be backed by law. Clear rules must control who can join records or use them to block key rights.", "ifMissing": "Without those rules, organisations can quietly recombine records and make civic participation compulsory.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "SC-G07", "SC-G08" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: A staffed offline correction route. An accessible hearing or contact channel. Service continuity during a device or network failure.", "whyNeeded": "A person blocked by the digital record needs a reachable route outside the same failing system.", "ifMissing": "Without it, the appeal exists only inside the broken identity or device gate.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "SC-G07", "SC-G08" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-012", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-institutional-25" ], "actorOrPerson": "People and public services in places with weak networks, tight public funds, or little local income from machine systems", "triggerOrContext": "In W02, cheap machine-based knowledge work may spread faster than local ownership, networks, public funds, and services. This is a possible W02 path, not a result shown by the assigned proof.", "plainJob": "If this happens here, make local income and key services easy to reach. Publish the rules, offer human help to fix mistakes, and keep enough staff and supplies to deliver.", "observableCompletion": "The public body publishes who can get help and how. People can use a local route, ask a person to fix mistakes, and reach key services. Staff, power, links, travel, and supplies are ready for the work.", "repeatedDemand": "Local ownership, network access, public funds, and the ability to run services can change after shocks or policy choices.", "why2031Not2026": "The assigned proof shows gaps in network access, public funds, social safety, and local services. It does not show a W02 funding plan at work. This need follows from a possible W02 path for 2031, not a result shown by the assigned proof.", "worldIds": [ "w02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "AC-36", "EWF-05", "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "PC-S01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter most in places with fewer staff and public funds, weak networks, or little local income from machine systems. Need and access can still vary within one country." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Local ownership, network access, public funds, staff, and supplies vary by place. The assigned evidence does not prove one path for all countries." ], "unknowns": [ "The assigned W01/W02 evidence gives no direct support for cross-border funding or portable rights.", "We do not know how much income from machine systems stays local.", "We do not know which local rules can reach people missed by digital records.", "We do not know whether local staff, power, transport, and supplies can keep services running." ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "National, regional, and local public bodies can publish rules for local income and services. They can fund staff and provide human review.", "remedyIfItFails": "Publish the rules. Offer an offline route and a person who can correct mistakes. Keep backup power, ways to pay, staff, transport, supplies, and local repair.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Public bodies cannot promise the same W02 plan or the same local income in every place." } ], "nonPromises": [ "The same plan as richer places", "Equal local income from machine systems", "Reliable infrastructure everywhere", "Money alone creates a valued social role" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Work changes but local income does not rise", "whoIsHurt": "People and public services in places with weak networks, tight budgets, or little local machine income", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish local income and service gaps. In the W02 scenario, review the plan when work changes without wider local benefit." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Rules hide who can get help", "whoIsHurt": "People who need income or services but cannot see the eligibility rule", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish plain rules, offer an offline route, and let a person review and correct the decision." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Funding is promised but services do not arrive", "whoIsHurt": "Service users and local workers waiting for staff, supplies, or a working site", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Tie funds to proof of staff and delivery. Reclaim or redirect money when the promised service is not delivered." }, { "harmOrFailure": "A network or payment failure stops income and services", "whoIsHurt": "People and services that rely on one digital identity, network, or payment route", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep offline and cash alternatives, backup power and links, and a process to repair records when systems return." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Distant owners gain while local services lack funds", "whoIsHurt": "Local people and public services near the systems that create income", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish ownership and local funding flows. Use a public review to fund staff, upkeep, and repair where the systems operate." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Simple local records. Clear service status. Backup routes when networks fail. Later checks and corrections.", "whyNeeded": "People need to reach income and services when identity records or networks are weak. Records must be corrected when links return.", "ifMissing": "Without backups, one network, identity, or payment failure could stop income, services, and proof at the same time.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-36", "EWF-05", "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "PC-S01" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Published eligibility rules. Human review. Clear ownership records. Public checks on how funds are shared.", "whyNeeded": "People need to know who can receive help and how to correct an error. Public bodies need to see who owns key systems and where funds go.", "ifMissing": "Without clear rules, people may be shut out and money may remain with a few owners while local services lack funds.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-36", "EWF-05", "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "PC-S01" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Backup power and links. Cash or another way to pay. Staff, transport, supplies, and local repair.", "whyNeeded": "A W02 plan works only if income and key services can reach people in places with fewer staff and public funds.", "ifMissing": "Without delivery capacity, a right can exist on paper while people cannot receive money or keep services open.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-36", "EWF-05", "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "PC-S01" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-institutional-25", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "People and public services in places with weak networks, tight public funds, or little local income from machine systems", "triggerOrContext": "In W02, cheap machine-based knowledge work may spread faster than local ownership, networks, public funds, and services. This is a possible W02 path, not a result shown by the assigned proof.", "plainJob": "If this happens here, make local income and key services easy to reach. Publish the rules, offer human help to fix mistakes, and keep enough staff and supplies to deliver.", "observableCompletion": "The public body publishes who can get help and how. People can use a local route, ask a person to fix mistakes, and reach key services. Staff, power, links, travel, and supplies are ready for the work.", "repeatedDemand": "Local ownership, network access, public funds, and the ability to run services can change after shocks or policy choices.", "why2031Not2026": "The assigned proof shows gaps in network access, public funds, social safety, and local services. It does not show a W02 funding plan at work. This need follows from a possible W02 path for 2031, not a result shown by the assigned proof.", "worldIds": [ "W02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "AC-36", "EWF-05", "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "PC-S01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter most in places with fewer staff and public funds, weak networks, or little local income from machine systems. Need and access can still vary within one country." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Local ownership, network access, public funds, staff, and supplies vary by place. The assigned evidence does not prove one path for all countries." ], "unknowns": [ "The assigned W01/W02 evidence gives no direct support for cross-border funding or portable rights.", "We do not know how much income from machine systems stays local.", "We do not know which local rules can reach people missed by digital records.", "We do not know whether local staff, power, transport, and supplies can keep services running." ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "National, regional, and local public bodies can publish rules for local income and services. They can fund staff and provide human review.", "remedyIfItFails": "Publish the rules. Offer an offline route and a person who can correct mistakes. Keep backup power, ways to pay, staff, transport, supplies, and local repair.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Public bodies cannot promise the same W02 plan or the same local income in every place." }, "nonPromises": [ "The same plan as richer places", "Equal local income from machine systems", "Reliable infrastructure everywhere", "Money alone creates a valued social role" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Work changes but local income does not rise", "whoIsHurt": "People and public services in places with weak networks, tight budgets, or little local machine income", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish local income and service gaps. In the W02 scenario, review the plan when work changes without wider local benefit." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Rules hide who can get help", "whoIsHurt": "People who need income or services but cannot see the eligibility rule", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish plain rules, offer an offline route, and let a person review and correct the decision." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Funding is promised but services do not arrive", "whoIsHurt": "Service users and local workers waiting for staff, supplies, or a working site", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Tie funds to proof of staff and delivery. Reclaim or redirect money when the promised service is not delivered." }, { "harmOrFailure": "A network or payment failure stops income and services", "whoIsHurt": "People and services that rely on one digital identity, network, or payment route", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep offline and cash alternatives, backup power and links, and a process to repair records when systems return." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Distant owners gain while local services lack funds", "whoIsHurt": "Local people and public services near the systems that create income", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish ownership and local funding flows. Use a public review to fund staff, upkeep, and repair where the systems operate." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Simple local records. Clear service status. Backup routes when networks fail. Later checks and corrections.", "whyNeeded": "People need to reach income and services when identity records or networks are weak. Records must be corrected when links return.", "ifMissing": "Without backups, one network, identity, or payment failure could stop income, services, and proof at the same time.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-36", "EWF-05", "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "PC-S01" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Published eligibility rules. Human review. Clear ownership records. Public checks on how funds are shared.", "whyNeeded": "People need to know who can receive help and how to correct an error. Public bodies need to see who owns key systems and where funds go.", "ifMissing": "Without clear rules, people may be shut out and money may remain with a few owners while local services lack funds.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-36", "EWF-05", "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "PC-S01" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Backup power and links. Cash or another way to pay. Staff, transport, supplies, and local repair.", "whyNeeded": "A W02 plan works only if income and key services can reach people in places with fewer staff and public funds.", "ifMissing": "Without delivery capacity, a right can exist on paper while people cannot receive money or keep services open.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-36", "EWF-05", "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "PC-S01" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-013", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-institutional-b-001" ], "actorOrPerson": "Competition authority, data regulator and public-interest enforcer", "triggerOrContext": "A few owners capture machine returns and bundle capability, identity, payment, distribution and personal history while entry and household demand weaken.", "plainJob": "Show that a person can move their identity, records and relationship history to a real alternative, finish an appeal, and keep essential access.", "observableCompletion": "Timed switching, provider entry, identity/data/relational-memory export, service continuity and appeal-completion tests all pass for affected groups; a failed test names a duty-holder and enforceable correction.", "repeatedDemand": "Re-tested after each major integration, contract change, acquisition, model retirement, service denial and remedy order.", "why2031Not2026": "In 2026 concentration and switching concerns are observed, but W03 adds the conditional cognition break, bundled diffusion and captive histories expected by 2030-31.", "worldIds": [ "w03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "AC-21", "EWF-20", "EWF-22", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: if W03 creates tightly bundled digital gates, switching and appeal tests could matter across many countries", "OECD evidence covers concentration and switching problems, while EU rules offer one legal route", "Countries that import the main technology stack may need extra tests of whether a real alternative exists" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Legal powers, market structure and access to alternative providers differ by country", "A data export is more useful where identity and service rules can read it", "Lower-capacity regulators may need shared testing or enforcement support" ], "unknowns": [ "Market definitions change quickly", "Formal portability may remain unusable", "The political durability of structural remedies is unresolved" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Competition, data-protection, identity and sector regulators within their legal powers", "remedyIfItFails": "Interim access, portability, separation, appeal deadlines, human review and structural relief where law permits", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A portability standard or policy announcement is not proof of successful exit, restored service or adjudicated abuse." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise a competitive market", "Does not prove concentration caused every denial", "Does not promise uninterrupted service" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Ceremonial export with no receiving provider", "whoIsHurt": "A person trying to leave a dominant provider without losing identity, records or essential service", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Require a live transfer test to a named receiving provider; keep the old service running until the new one works" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Appeal delay while housing, income or care is lost", "whoIsHurt": "The person waiting for housing, income or care while the appeal runs", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Continue the essential service during appeal, set a short deadline and provide a named human reviewer" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Compliance cost further entrenches incumbents", "whoIsHurt": "Small providers and the people who need a real alternative", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Scale duties to risk, fund shared compliance tools and remove rules that only the largest provider can afford" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Interoperable identity, data and memory formats", "whyNeeded": "A receiving service must be able to read the person's identity, records and saved history, or the promised move is only a file download.", "ifMissing": "If formats do not work together, people lose history or essential access and remain trapped with the old provider.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-21", "EWF-20" ] }, { "dependency": "Auditable switching and appeal logs", "whyNeeded": "Logs show each switching step, delay, refusal and appeal result, so regulators can tell whether exit works for real people.", "ifMissing": "Without a trustworthy record, a provider can claim the switch worked while the user cannot prove where it failed.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-21", "EWF-20" ] }, { "dependency": "Jurisdiction, structural-remedy powers, due process and cross-regulator coordination", "whyNeeded": "Regulators need clear legal power, fair procedure and coordination to order a fix across several linked markets.", "ifMissing": "Without those powers, tests may reveal lock-in but no body can require access, separation, a deadline or a completed appeal.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ] }, { "dependency": "Alternative providers need compute, grid, network and staffed-service capacity", "whyNeeded": "A rival needs real computing power, electricity, networks and staff before it can receive people leaving the dominant provider.", "ifMissing": "Without usable alternatives, portable data has nowhere useful to go and switching cannot protect service continuity.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-21" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-institutional-b-001", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Competition authority, data regulator and public-interest enforcer", "triggerOrContext": "A few owners capture machine returns and bundle capability, identity, payment, distribution and personal history while entry and household demand weaken.", "plainJob": "Show that a person can move their identity, records and relationship history to a real alternative, finish an appeal, and keep essential access.", "observableCompletion": "Timed switching, provider entry, identity/data/relational-memory export, service continuity and appeal-completion tests all pass for affected groups; a failed test names a duty-holder and enforceable correction.", "repeatedDemand": "Re-tested after each major integration, contract change, acquisition, model retirement, service denial and remedy order.", "why2031Not2026": "In 2026 concentration and switching concerns are observed, but W03 adds the conditional cognition break, bundled diffusion and captive histories expected by 2030-31.", "worldIds": [ "W03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "AC-21", "EWF-20", "EWF-22", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: if W03 creates tightly bundled digital gates, switching and appeal tests could matter across many countries", "OECD evidence covers concentration and switching problems, while EU rules offer one legal route", "Countries that import the main technology stack may need extra tests of whether a real alternative exists" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Legal powers, market structure and access to alternative providers differ by country", "A data export is more useful where identity and service rules can read it", "Lower-capacity regulators may need shared testing or enforcement support" ], "unknowns": [ "Market definitions change quickly", "Formal portability may remain unusable", "The political durability of structural remedies is unresolved" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Competition, data-protection, identity and sector regulators within their legal powers", "remedyIfItFails": "Interim access, portability, separation, appeal deadlines, human review and structural relief where law permits", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A portability standard or policy announcement is not proof of successful exit, restored service or adjudicated abuse." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise a competitive market", "Does not prove concentration caused every denial", "Does not promise uninterrupted service" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Ceremonial export with no receiving provider", "whoIsHurt": "A person trying to leave a dominant provider without losing identity, records or essential service", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Require a live transfer test to a named receiving provider; keep the old service running until the new one works" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Appeal delay while housing, income or care is lost", "whoIsHurt": "The person waiting for housing, income or care while the appeal runs", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Continue the essential service during appeal, set a short deadline and provide a named human reviewer" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Compliance cost further entrenches incumbents", "whoIsHurt": "Small providers and the people who need a real alternative", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Scale duties to risk, fund shared compliance tools and remove rules that only the largest provider can afford" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Interoperable identity, data and memory formats", "whyNeeded": "A receiving service must be able to read the person's identity, records and saved history, or the promised move is only a file download.", "ifMissing": "If formats do not work together, people lose history or essential access and remain trapped with the old provider.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-21", "EWF-20" ] }, { "dependency": "Auditable switching and appeal logs", "whyNeeded": "Logs show each switching step, delay, refusal and appeal result, so regulators can tell whether exit works for real people.", "ifMissing": "Without a trustworthy record, a provider can claim the switch worked while the user cannot prove where it failed.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-21", "EWF-20" ] }, { "dependency": "Jurisdiction, structural-remedy powers, due process and cross-regulator coordination", "whyNeeded": "Regulators need clear legal power, fair procedure and coordination to order a fix across several linked markets.", "ifMissing": "Without those powers, tests may reveal lock-in but no body can require access, separation, a deadline or a completed appeal.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ] }, { "dependency": "Alternative providers need compute, grid, network and staffed-service capacity", "whyNeeded": "A rival needs real computing power, electricity, networks and staff before it can receive people leaving the dominant provider.", "ifMissing": "Without usable alternatives, portable data has nowhere useful to go and switching cannot protect service continuity.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-21" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-014", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-institutional-b-002" ], "actorOrPerson": "Fiscal, social-protection and local-revenue authority", "triggerOrContext": "Paid cognitive work, labour income and payroll tax fall before broad ownership or adequate replacement income forms, while strategic owner investment continues.", "plainJob": "Get enough money to affected households fast enough that they can pay for basics and local services do not collapse.", "observableCompletion": "Coverage, payment speed, hardship, local income and essential services stay stable or recover for each affected group and place after the work shock. The test also checks what households can still afford after overdue bills.", "repeatedDemand": "Monthly during displacement waves and whenever eligibility, prices, rent, utility costs or employment status changes.", "why2031Not2026": "Current evidence shows exposure and large protection gaps, not the W03 economy-wide cognition, income, payroll and demand chain; the recurring job appears if that chain is observed by 2028-30.", "worldIds": [ "w03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "src-oecd-ai-trajectories-2026", "src-metr-long-tasks-2025", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024", "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "EWF-20" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: W03 could weaken wages, tax receipts and local demand in many economies", "The protection gap may be greatest where benefits cover few workers or payments are slow", "The need matters locally when rent, food, energy or service cuts arrive before new income" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Countries have very different tax bases, welfare systems and borrowing room", "People paid informally may be harder to reach with standard payroll evidence", "Local authorities vary in their power to keep services open" ], "unknowns": [ "No joined global series proves the full demand loop", "Adequacy and informal-household coverage remain hard to compare", "Strategic investment may temporarily offset contraction" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Legislatures, treasuries, social-protection agencies and local authorities", "remedyIfItFails": "Emergency income, utility and debt relief, corrected eligibility, fiscal transfers and public equity claims where authorised", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "An account, payment rail or nominal benefit does not establish adequate, portable or timely support." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise a universal income settlement", "Does not claim exposure equals displacement", "Does not guarantee aggregate demand recovery" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Support arrives after eviction or debt compounding", "whoIsHurt": "A household already close to eviction, disconnection or unpayable debt", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Release emergency money immediately, pause eviction or disconnection and correct the full payment with back pay" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Narrow targeting excludes informal or document-poor households", "whoIsHurt": "People with weak documents or income outside standard payroll records", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Accept other proof, provide assisted review and pay from the date help should have started" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Falling local revenue cuts human services and reinforces enclosure", "whoIsHurt": "Residents and frontline staff who depend on local clinics, schools and support", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Send stabilisation funds directly to threatened services and publish whether hours, staff and access recover" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Current income and payment evidence", "whyNeeded": "Recent income and payment records show who lost money, how urgent the gap is and whether support arrived.", "ifMissing": "Old or incomplete records can send help to the wrong time or household, after debt or eviction has already grown.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-15" ] }, { "dependency": "Assisted and auditable eligibility processing", "whyNeeded": "Assisted processing lets staff handle missing documents and unusual work patterns, while an audit trail shows how each decision was made.", "ifMissing": "An opaque automated route can repeat exclusions at speed and leave people unable to correct a wrong result.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-15" ] }, { "dependency": "Appropriation, tax authority, eligibility law and intergovernmental transfer rules", "whyNeeded": "Tax, spending and transfer rules give public bodies lawful money and a way to move it to households and local services.", "ifMissing": "Without legal authority or an approved budget, officials can identify the shock but cannot fund a timely response.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15" ] }, { "dependency": "Affordable housing, utilities, food and staffed services must still exist to buy", "whyNeeded": "Cash protects living standards only when homes, power, food and staffed services are available at prices people can pay.", "ifMissing": "If supply has collapsed, extra money chases too few essentials and hardship continues despite a successful payment.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-institutional-b-002", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Fiscal, social-protection and local-revenue authority", "triggerOrContext": "Paid cognitive work, labour income and payroll tax fall before broad ownership or adequate replacement income forms, while strategic owner investment continues.", "plainJob": "Get enough money to affected households fast enough that they can pay for basics and local services do not collapse.", "observableCompletion": "Coverage, payment speed, hardship, local income and essential services stay stable or recover for each affected group and place after the work shock. The test also checks what households can still afford after overdue bills.", "repeatedDemand": "Monthly during displacement waves and whenever eligibility, prices, rent, utility costs or employment status changes.", "why2031Not2026": "Current evidence shows exposure and large protection gaps, not the W03 economy-wide cognition, income, payroll and demand chain; the recurring job appears if that chain is observed by 2028-30.", "worldIds": [ "W03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "src-oecd-ai-trajectories-2026", "src-metr-long-tasks-2025", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024", "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "EWF-20" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: W03 could weaken wages, tax receipts and local demand in many economies", "The protection gap may be greatest where benefits cover few workers or payments are slow", "The need matters locally when rent, food, energy or service cuts arrive before new income" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Countries have very different tax bases, welfare systems and borrowing room", "People paid informally may be harder to reach with standard payroll evidence", "Local authorities vary in their power to keep services open" ], "unknowns": [ "No joined global series proves the full demand loop", "Adequacy and informal-household coverage remain hard to compare", "Strategic investment may temporarily offset contraction" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Legislatures, treasuries, social-protection agencies and local authorities", "remedyIfItFails": "Emergency income, utility and debt relief, corrected eligibility, fiscal transfers and public equity claims where authorised", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "An account, payment rail or nominal benefit does not establish adequate, portable or timely support." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise a universal income settlement", "Does not claim exposure equals displacement", "Does not guarantee aggregate demand recovery" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Support arrives after eviction or debt compounding", "whoIsHurt": "A household already close to eviction, disconnection or unpayable debt", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Release emergency money immediately, pause eviction or disconnection and correct the full payment with back pay" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Narrow targeting excludes informal or document-poor households", "whoIsHurt": "People with weak documents or income outside standard payroll records", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Accept other proof, provide assisted review and pay from the date help should have started" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Falling local revenue cuts human services and reinforces enclosure", "whoIsHurt": "Residents and frontline staff who depend on local clinics, schools and support", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Send stabilisation funds directly to threatened services and publish whether hours, staff and access recover" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Current income and payment evidence", "whyNeeded": "Recent income and payment records show who lost money, how urgent the gap is and whether support arrived.", "ifMissing": "Old or incomplete records can send help to the wrong time or household, after debt or eviction has already grown.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-15" ] }, { "dependency": "Assisted and auditable eligibility processing", "whyNeeded": "Assisted processing lets staff handle missing documents and unusual work patterns, while an audit trail shows how each decision was made.", "ifMissing": "An opaque automated route can repeat exclusions at speed and leave people unable to correct a wrong result.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-15" ] }, { "dependency": "Appropriation, tax authority, eligibility law and intergovernmental transfer rules", "whyNeeded": "Tax, spending and transfer rules give public bodies lawful money and a way to move it to households and local services.", "ifMissing": "Without legal authority or an approved budget, officials can identify the shock but cannot fund a timely response.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15" ] }, { "dependency": "Affordable housing, utilities, food and staffed services must still exist to buy", "whyNeeded": "Cash protects living standards only when homes, power, food and staffed services are available at prices people can pay.", "ifMissing": "If supply has collapsed, extra money chases too few essentials and hardship continues despite a successful payment.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-015", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-institutional-b-003" ], "actorOrPerson": "Public eligibility and essential-service authority", "triggerOrContext": "Narrow automated support and bundled identity become normal while housing, health, education and climate protection are asset- and credential-gated.", "plainJob": "Tell a person why they were refused, let a real human fix it quickly, and keep urgent help running during the appeal.", "observableCompletion": "Every consequential denial has understandable notice, traceable evidence, an identified human authority, deadline-bound correction, document-light and offline routes, and interim continuity where delay risks serious harm.", "repeatedDemand": "At every denial, data mismatch, identity failure, change of address or status, outage and appeal.", "why2031Not2026": "Safeguards and digital-identity laws exist as current intent or staged implementation; W03 makes bundled, high-volume automated exclusion a repeated 2031 pressure.", "worldIds": [ "w03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: linked automated gates in W03 could make one wrong refusal spread across essential services", "EU rules provide one route for notice, identity and review", "Places with weak records, low connectivity or few public staff need strong assisted and offline routes" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "The right to human review and continued service differs by law", "Identity systems handle missing or conflicting records in different ways", "Language access, travel distance and staff capacity change whether an appeal is usable" ], "unknowns": [ "Rules do not prove enforcement", "Identity coverage and correction quality are uneven", "Comparable appeal-completion evidence is sparse" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The statutory service decision-maker, not the model or vendor", "remedyIfItFails": "Interim service, correction, human reconsideration, restoration and external review", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Explanation alone is not remedy; automation cannot decide outside delegated law or replace the accountable duty-holder." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise eligibility", "Does not treat digital identity as universal", "Does not guarantee that every denial was automated error" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Recursive denial across linked services", "whoIsHurt": "A person whose first mistaken refusal triggers more refusals", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Stop the refusal from spreading, restore urgent services and correct the shared record at its source" }, { "harmOrFailure": "No human owns the exception", "whoIsHurt": "A person with an urgent case that no automated route can handle", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Assign a named human with power to grant temporary access and fix the decision" }, { "harmOrFailure": "People abandon appeal because time, language or documents are unaffordable", "whoIsHurt": "People who cannot afford repeated travel, documents, data or translation", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Provide free phone, local and translated appeal routes; pause the deadline while help is unavailable" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Decision provenance, error correction and resilient identity matching", "whyNeeded": "The service must show which rule and record caused a refusal, match the right person and correct the source error.", "ifMissing": "Without that trail, the same bad data can trigger repeated refusals across linked services.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ] }, { "dependency": "Notice, due process, non-discrimination, service-continuity and review duties", "whyNeeded": "Notice, fair review and continued-service duties turn a request for help into an enforceable right with a named decision owner.", "ifMissing": "Without those duties, a person may receive an explanation but still lose the service while nobody is required to fix it.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ] }, { "dependency": "Staffed offices, phone routes and offline records during network or identity failure", "whyNeeded": "Staffed offices, phones and offline records keep a correction route open when identity checks, devices or networks fail.", "ifMissing": "Without a non-digital route, the people most affected by an outage cannot reach the human review that is meant to protect them.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-15" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-institutional-b-003", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Public eligibility and essential-service authority", "triggerOrContext": "Narrow automated support and bundled identity become normal while housing, health, education and climate protection are asset- and credential-gated.", "plainJob": "Tell a person why they were refused, let a real human fix it quickly, and keep urgent help running during the appeal.", "observableCompletion": "Every consequential denial has understandable notice, traceable evidence, an identified human authority, deadline-bound correction, document-light and offline routes, and interim continuity where delay risks serious harm.", "repeatedDemand": "At every denial, data mismatch, identity failure, change of address or status, outage and appeal.", "why2031Not2026": "Safeguards and digital-identity laws exist as current intent or staged implementation; W03 makes bundled, high-volume automated exclusion a repeated 2031 pressure.", "worldIds": [ "W03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: linked automated gates in W03 could make one wrong refusal spread across essential services", "EU rules provide one route for notice, identity and review", "Places with weak records, low connectivity or few public staff need strong assisted and offline routes" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "The right to human review and continued service differs by law", "Identity systems handle missing or conflicting records in different ways", "Language access, travel distance and staff capacity change whether an appeal is usable" ], "unknowns": [ "Rules do not prove enforcement", "Identity coverage and correction quality are uneven", "Comparable appeal-completion evidence is sparse" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The statutory service decision-maker, not the model or vendor", "remedyIfItFails": "Interim service, correction, human reconsideration, restoration and external review", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Explanation alone is not remedy; automation cannot decide outside delegated law or replace the accountable duty-holder." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise eligibility", "Does not treat digital identity as universal", "Does not guarantee that every denial was automated error" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Recursive denial across linked services", "whoIsHurt": "A person whose first mistaken refusal triggers more refusals", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Stop the refusal from spreading, restore urgent services and correct the shared record at its source" }, { "harmOrFailure": "No human owns the exception", "whoIsHurt": "A person with an urgent case that no automated route can handle", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Assign a named human with power to grant temporary access and fix the decision" }, { "harmOrFailure": "People abandon appeal because time, language or documents are unaffordable", "whoIsHurt": "People who cannot afford repeated travel, documents, data or translation", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Provide free phone, local and translated appeal routes; pause the deadline while help is unavailable" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Decision provenance, error correction and resilient identity matching", "whyNeeded": "The service must show which rule and record caused a refusal, match the right person and correct the source error.", "ifMissing": "Without that trail, the same bad data can trigger repeated refusals across linked services.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ] }, { "dependency": "Notice, due process, non-discrimination, service-continuity and review duties", "whyNeeded": "Notice, fair review and continued-service duties turn a request for help into an enforceable right with a named decision owner.", "ifMissing": "Without those duties, a person may receive an explanation but still lose the service while nobody is required to fix it.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ] }, { "dependency": "Staffed offices, phone routes and offline records during network or identity failure", "whyNeeded": "Staffed offices, phones and offline records keep a correction route open when identity checks, devices or networks fail.", "ifMissing": "Without a non-digital route, the people most affected by an outage cannot reach the human review that is meant to protect them.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-15" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-016", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-institutional-b-004" ], "actorOrPerson": "Energy, water, land, minerals and infrastructure regulator with host-community authority", "triggerOrContext": "Concentrated owners secure priority connections and strategic capacity while ratepayers and host communities face scarcity, cost transfer and weak common investment.", "plainJob": "Show who gets the power, water and land, who pays, and let the people carrying the cost stop or change an unfair plan.", "observableCompletion": "Allocation, queue position, tariffs, water and land use, host compensation, service effects and veto or appeal outcomes are published and independently checked before and during operation.", "repeatedDemand": "At each siting, connection, capacity expansion, tariff case, drought restriction, mineral shock and contract renewal.", "why2031Not2026": "Current sources establish projected loads, physical lead times and concentrated supply, not a delivered 2031 premium-corridor order; W03 makes allocation conflict recurrent.", "worldIds": [ "w03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03", "PC-S13", "E13" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Large compute and chip projects could affect power, water and land in the United States, China, Europe and other production centres", "The direct costs fall on the host town, watershed and grid area", "Regions that import the technology may carry supply or energy costs without receiving the main profits" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Grid shortages, water stress and land rights differ sharply by place", "Some regulators can change tariffs or permits; others cannot", "Ownership of the project changes who receives the benefits and who can be held to account" ], "unknowns": [ "Demand projections are wide", "Customer allocation is opaque", "Local water, tariff and compensation data are not globally comparable" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Utilities, resource regulators, planning bodies, courts and legally recognised host communities", "remedyIfItFails": "Reallocation, conditions, compensation, tariff correction, disclosure, pause or refusal", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A planned data centre, chip fab or grid reservation is not commissioned capacity or a right to override local law." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise abundant compute", "Does not assign a universal social value to a load", "Does not guarantee host consent" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Priority load delays homes and common services", "whoIsHurt": "Households, housing projects and public services left waiting for power or water", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish who moved in the queue, reassess the priority load and reserve capacity for essential local services" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Water or land cost is hidden", "whoIsHurt": "Residents, farmers and ecosystems around the host site", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish metered use, enforce water and land limits and fund repair of verified damage" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Compensation buys silence without continuing remedy", "whoIsHurt": "Host communities carrying costs after the first payment is spent", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep monitoring and complaint rights open for the project's life, with power to change or pause the permit" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Metering and auditable capacity-allocation records", "whyNeeded": "Meters and allocation records show how much power and water a project uses, when it uses it and which other users wait.", "ifMissing": "Without measured use and queue data, costs can be hidden and an unfair priority decision cannot be tested.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "PC-S02" ] }, { "dependency": "Utility, water, planning, environmental, ratepayer and consent rules", "whyNeeded": "Utility, planning, environmental and consent rules give authorities a lawful way to set limits, change tariffs, require repair or refuse a plan.", "ifMissing": "Without those powers, publishing the burden does not let affected people change the project or recover loss.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "PC-S02" ] }, { "dependency": "Grids, transformers, cooling, water, land, chips, minerals and repair capacity", "whyNeeded": "The project and the local services around it both depend on real grids, cooling, water, land, materials and repair crews.", "ifMissing": "If any of these are missing, an approved allocation stays on paper or takes capacity from homes and public services.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03", "PC-S13", "E13" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-institutional-b-004", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Energy, water, land, minerals and infrastructure regulator with host-community authority", "triggerOrContext": "Concentrated owners secure priority connections and strategic capacity while ratepayers and host communities face scarcity, cost transfer and weak common investment.", "plainJob": "Show who gets the power, water and land, who pays, and let the people carrying the cost stop or change an unfair plan.", "observableCompletion": "Allocation, queue position, tariffs, water and land use, host compensation, service effects and veto or appeal outcomes are published and independently checked before and during operation.", "repeatedDemand": "At each siting, connection, capacity expansion, tariff case, drought restriction, mineral shock and contract renewal.", "why2031Not2026": "Current sources establish projected loads, physical lead times and concentrated supply, not a delivered 2031 premium-corridor order; W03 makes allocation conflict recurrent.", "worldIds": [ "W03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03", "PC-S13", "E13" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Large compute and chip projects could affect power, water and land in the United States, China, Europe and other production centres", "The direct costs fall on the host town, watershed and grid area", "Regions that import the technology may carry supply or energy costs without receiving the main profits" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Grid shortages, water stress and land rights differ sharply by place", "Some regulators can change tariffs or permits; others cannot", "Ownership of the project changes who receives the benefits and who can be held to account" ], "unknowns": [ "Demand projections are wide", "Customer allocation is opaque", "Local water, tariff and compensation data are not globally comparable" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Utilities, resource regulators, planning bodies, courts and legally recognised host communities", "remedyIfItFails": "Reallocation, conditions, compensation, tariff correction, disclosure, pause or refusal", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A planned data centre, chip fab or grid reservation is not commissioned capacity or a right to override local law." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise abundant compute", "Does not assign a universal social value to a load", "Does not guarantee host consent" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Priority load delays homes and common services", "whoIsHurt": "Households, housing projects and public services left waiting for power or water", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish who moved in the queue, reassess the priority load and reserve capacity for essential local services" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Water or land cost is hidden", "whoIsHurt": "Residents, farmers and ecosystems around the host site", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish metered use, enforce water and land limits and fund repair of verified damage" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Compensation buys silence without continuing remedy", "whoIsHurt": "Host communities carrying costs after the first payment is spent", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep monitoring and complaint rights open for the project's life, with power to change or pause the permit" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Metering and auditable capacity-allocation records", "whyNeeded": "Meters and allocation records show how much power and water a project uses, when it uses it and which other users wait.", "ifMissing": "Without measured use and queue data, costs can be hidden and an unfair priority decision cannot be tested.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "PC-S02" ] }, { "dependency": "Utility, water, planning, environmental, ratepayer and consent rules", "whyNeeded": "Utility, planning, environmental and consent rules give authorities a lawful way to set limits, change tariffs, require repair or refuse a plan.", "ifMissing": "Without those powers, publishing the burden does not let affected people change the project or recover loss.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "PC-S02" ] }, { "dependency": "Grids, transformers, cooling, water, land, chips, minerals and repair capacity", "whyNeeded": "The project and the local services around it both depend on real grids, cooling, water, land, materials and repair crews.", "ifMissing": "If any of these are missing, an approved allocation stays on paper or takes capacity from homes and public services.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "PC-S03", "PC-S13", "E13" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-017", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-institutional-b-005" ], "actorOrPerson": "School, college, employer and professional-training authority", "triggerOrContext": "Entry cognitive work erodes while premium human teaching, protected roles and owner-defined credentials become scarce.", "plainJob": "Give a beginner real practice with a person who can teach them, and proof of skill that another school or employer will accept.", "observableCompletion": "Beginners complete supervised work, receive independently assessed portable recognition, enter paid progression and can challenge surveillance or credential denial; outcomes are reported by income, disability, gender and place.", "repeatedDemand": "Every intake, placement, assessment, credential renewal and move between institutions or employers.", "why2031Not2026": "Current evidence shows broad task exposure and mixed short education trials, not a completed entry-work collapse; the need changes materially if W03's 2028-30 diffusion and credential gate arrives.", "worldIds": [ "w03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "src-oecd-ai-trajectories-2026", "src-metr-long-tasks-2025", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "EWF-04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s05", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Global studies suggest many tasks may change, but they do not prove that jobs will disappear", "OECD education evidence helps describe formal systems", "A short Nigeria study shows one local learning result, not a global rule", "Scenario possibility: W03 could remove enough beginner tasks to make supervised practice a larger need by 2031" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Accreditation and apprenticeship rules differ by country and trade", "Access to teachers, devices, workshops and placements varies within countries", "A method that helps in one language or classroom may not transfer", "Employers may value the same credential differently" ], "unknowns": [ "Exposure is not job loss", "Short learning gains may not persist", "No global comparable series measures entry ladders after autonomous-task diffusion" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Accredited education bodies, employers, professional bodies and labour authorities", "remedyIfItFails": "Reassessment, portable credit, accessible supervised placement and external review", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Automated tutoring, task completion or an owner badge does not prove learning, competence, employment or legitimacy." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise a job", "Does not claim all junior work disappears", "Does not treat one pedagogy as globally valid" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Learners receive answers without practice", "whoIsHurt": "Learners who can produce answers but never practise the real task", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Add supervised practical work and reassess skill through observed performance" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Credential lock blocks movement", "whoIsHurt": "A learner or worker whose valid learning record is trapped in one system", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Issue a portable record, require another assessor to review it and preserve earned credit during the dispute" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Premium human teaching widens class gaps", "whoIsHurt": "Low-income and disabled learners priced out of human teaching or placements", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Fund accessible teaching, devices, travel and paid placements; report completion gaps and correct them" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Assessment evidence separated from generated output", "whyNeeded": "Assessment must distinguish what the learner can do from what a generator produced for them.", "ifMissing": "If the two are mixed, a polished answer can hide missing skill and place the learner or others at risk later.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s05" ] }, { "dependency": "Portable credential records", "whyNeeded": "Portable records carry verified practice and credit to another school or employer.", "ifMissing": "Without them, changing provider can erase earned progress and force a learner to start again.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s05" ] }, { "dependency": "Accreditation, labour, child, disability, privacy and appeal rules", "whyNeeded": "These rules protect safety, children, disabled learners, privacy and fair appeal while making a qualification accepted.", "ifMissing": "Without a clear rule set, practice may be unsafe, surveillance may go unchallenged and another institution may reject the result.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ] }, { "dependency": "Teachers, mentors, placements, workshops, devices, connectivity and accessible buildings", "whyNeeded": "Real teachers, mentors, workplaces and accessible facilities provide feedback and hands-on practice that software alone cannot supply.", "ifMissing": "If staff, placements or access are missing, the programme can issue lessons and badges without building usable skill.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s05" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-institutional-b-005", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "School, college, employer and professional-training authority", "triggerOrContext": "Entry cognitive work erodes while premium human teaching, protected roles and owner-defined credentials become scarce.", "plainJob": "Give a beginner real practice with a person who can teach them, and proof of skill that another school or employer will accept.", "observableCompletion": "Beginners complete supervised work, receive independently assessed portable recognition, enter paid progression and can challenge surveillance or credential denial; outcomes are reported by income, disability, gender and place.", "repeatedDemand": "Every intake, placement, assessment, credential renewal and move between institutions or employers.", "why2031Not2026": "Current evidence shows broad task exposure and mixed short education trials, not a completed entry-work collapse; the need changes materially if W03's 2028-30 diffusion and credential gate arrives.", "worldIds": [ "W03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "src-oecd-ai-trajectories-2026", "src-metr-long-tasks-2025", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "EWF-04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s05", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Global studies suggest many tasks may change, but they do not prove that jobs will disappear", "OECD education evidence helps describe formal systems", "A short Nigeria study shows one local learning result, not a global rule", "Scenario possibility: W03 could remove enough beginner tasks to make supervised practice a larger need by 2031" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Accreditation and apprenticeship rules differ by country and trade", "Access to teachers, devices, workshops and placements varies within countries", "A method that helps in one language or classroom may not transfer", "Employers may value the same credential differently" ], "unknowns": [ "Exposure is not job loss", "Short learning gains may not persist", "No global comparable series measures entry ladders after autonomous-task diffusion" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Accredited education bodies, employers, professional bodies and labour authorities", "remedyIfItFails": "Reassessment, portable credit, accessible supervised placement and external review", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Automated tutoring, task completion or an owner badge does not prove learning, competence, employment or legitimacy." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise a job", "Does not claim all junior work disappears", "Does not treat one pedagogy as globally valid" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Learners receive answers without practice", "whoIsHurt": "Learners who can produce answers but never practise the real task", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Add supervised practical work and reassess skill through observed performance" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Credential lock blocks movement", "whoIsHurt": "A learner or worker whose valid learning record is trapped in one system", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Issue a portable record, require another assessor to review it and preserve earned credit during the dispute" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Premium human teaching widens class gaps", "whoIsHurt": "Low-income and disabled learners priced out of human teaching or placements", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Fund accessible teaching, devices, travel and paid placements; report completion gaps and correct them" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Assessment evidence separated from generated output", "whyNeeded": "Assessment must distinguish what the learner can do from what a generator produced for them.", "ifMissing": "If the two are mixed, a polished answer can hide missing skill and place the learner or others at risk later.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s05" ] }, { "dependency": "Portable credential records", "whyNeeded": "Portable records carry verified practice and credit to another school or employer.", "ifMissing": "Without them, changing provider can erase earned progress and force a learner to start again.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s05" ] }, { "dependency": "Accreditation, labour, child, disability, privacy and appeal rules", "whyNeeded": "These rules protect safety, children, disabled learners, privacy and fair appeal while making a qualification accepted.", "ifMissing": "Without a clear rule set, practice may be unsafe, surveillance may go unchallenged and another institution may reject the result.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ] }, { "dependency": "Teachers, mentors, placements, workshops, devices, connectivity and accessible buildings", "whyNeeded": "Real teachers, mentors, workplaces and accessible facilities provide feedback and hands-on practice that software alone cannot supply.", "ifMissing": "If staff, placements or access are missing, the programme can issue lessons and badges without building usable skill.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s05" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-018", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-institutional-b-006" ], "actorOrPerson": "Health, mental-health and social-care commissioner", "triggerOrContext": "Fiscal and demand pressure cuts human services as synthetic support becomes cheaper, more persistent and harder to leave.", "plainJob": "Make sure digital help gets a person to a qualified human when they need one, especially in a crisis, and never pretends to be treatment.", "observableCompletion": "Handoff time, staffed contact, continuity, failed escalation, crisis outcome and voluntary exit are measured by subgroup; every clinical decision retains an accountable human and accessible appeal.", "repeatedDemand": "At each new episode, risk escalation, missed handoff, model change, memory-retention decision and service-capacity review.", "why2031Not2026": "Current relational studies are short and mixed and current health capacity is unequal; W03 conditionally adds institutional substitution and captive memory at scale by 2030-31.", "worldIds": [ "w03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "SC-G06", "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Health-worker shortages make safe routes to human care relevant in many countries", "Online relationship studies cover narrow groups and cannot represent every culture or age", "California law is one example of a local legal response, not a global standard" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Crisis services, clinical rules and staff numbers differ by country", "People use synthetic support differently by age, culture and disability", "A safe handoff is harder where transport, appointments or emergency care are scarce" ], "unknowns": [ "No long global causal evidence on substitution", "Workforce totals hide local access and quality", "Heavy use may reflect prior need" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Licensed clinicians, statutory care bodies and named crisis duty-holders", "remedyIfItFails": "Human reassessment, urgent escalation, restored contact, memory deletion or export and service complaint", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Synthetic attention is not friendship, diagnosis, treatment, consent or a clinical duty-holder." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise treatment capacity", "Does not claim synthetic use causes loneliness or illness", "Does not promise friendship or recovery" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "False reassurance delays care", "whoIsHurt": "A person in distress who delays real care because the system sounds confident", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Show clear limits, arrange fast human reassessment and contact the person again if the handoff fails" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Crisis handoff fails", "whoIsHurt": "A person in crisis and anyone relying on the promised emergency route", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Connect to a staffed crisis service, keep trying until receipt is confirmed and trigger an incident review" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Staff cuts make the synthetic route unavoidable", "whoIsHurt": "Patients forced onto the digital route after appointments or staff are cut", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Restore a phone, in-person or clinical route and prevent contract savings from depending on avoidable staff loss" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Persistent memory raises exit cost", "whoIsHurt": "A person who wants to leave without losing useful history or ongoing care", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Let them delete or export memory, stop persuasion and continue essential care during the move" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Risk detection with conservative escalation", "whyNeeded": "Conservative risk checks identify signs that require a human and escalate even when the system is uncertain.", "ifMissing": "Without them, a calm or confident reply can delay urgent care or miss a crisis.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Memory control, audit logs and service availability", "whyNeeded": "Memory controls let a person inspect, delete or move saved history, while logs show what the service did and whether it was available.", "ifMissing": "Without control and records, people can be locked in by intimate history and cannot prove a failed handoff.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Clinical scope, consent, safeguarding, data, crisis and complaint duties", "whyNeeded": "Clinical, consent and safeguarding duties define what the tool may do, who owns the decision and how a person can complain.", "ifMissing": "Without enforceable limits, a supplier can blur support with treatment and shift responsibility after harm.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI04", "HBD-05" ] }, { "dependency": "Qualified staff, appointments, emergency response, transport and treatment capacity", "whyNeeded": "A digital handoff succeeds only if qualified people, appointments, transport and treatment are actually available.", "ifMissing": "Without human capacity, escalation becomes a message to an empty queue rather than care.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "SC-G06" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-institutional-b-006", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Health, mental-health and social-care commissioner", "triggerOrContext": "Fiscal and demand pressure cuts human services as synthetic support becomes cheaper, more persistent and harder to leave.", "plainJob": "Make sure digital help gets a person to a qualified human when they need one, especially in a crisis, and never pretends to be treatment.", "observableCompletion": "Handoff time, staffed contact, continuity, failed escalation, crisis outcome and voluntary exit are measured by subgroup; every clinical decision retains an accountable human and accessible appeal.", "repeatedDemand": "At each new episode, risk escalation, missed handoff, model change, memory-retention decision and service-capacity review.", "why2031Not2026": "Current relational studies are short and mixed and current health capacity is unequal; W03 conditionally adds institutional substitution and captive memory at scale by 2030-31.", "worldIds": [ "W03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "SC-G06", "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Health-worker shortages make safe routes to human care relevant in many countries", "Online relationship studies cover narrow groups and cannot represent every culture or age", "California law is one example of a local legal response, not a global standard" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Crisis services, clinical rules and staff numbers differ by country", "People use synthetic support differently by age, culture and disability", "A safe handoff is harder where transport, appointments or emergency care are scarce" ], "unknowns": [ "No long global causal evidence on substitution", "Workforce totals hide local access and quality", "Heavy use may reflect prior need" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Licensed clinicians, statutory care bodies and named crisis duty-holders", "remedyIfItFails": "Human reassessment, urgent escalation, restored contact, memory deletion or export and service complaint", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Synthetic attention is not friendship, diagnosis, treatment, consent or a clinical duty-holder." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise treatment capacity", "Does not claim synthetic use causes loneliness or illness", "Does not promise friendship or recovery" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "False reassurance delays care", "whoIsHurt": "A person in distress who delays real care because the system sounds confident", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Show clear limits, arrange fast human reassessment and contact the person again if the handoff fails" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Crisis handoff fails", "whoIsHurt": "A person in crisis and anyone relying on the promised emergency route", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Connect to a staffed crisis service, keep trying until receipt is confirmed and trigger an incident review" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Staff cuts make the synthetic route unavoidable", "whoIsHurt": "Patients forced onto the digital route after appointments or staff are cut", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Restore a phone, in-person or clinical route and prevent contract savings from depending on avoidable staff loss" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Persistent memory raises exit cost", "whoIsHurt": "A person who wants to leave without losing useful history or ongoing care", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Let them delete or export memory, stop persuasion and continue essential care during the move" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Risk detection with conservative escalation", "whyNeeded": "Conservative risk checks identify signs that require a human and escalate even when the system is uncertain.", "ifMissing": "Without them, a calm or confident reply can delay urgent care or miss a crisis.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Memory control, audit logs and service availability", "whyNeeded": "Memory controls let a person inspect, delete or move saved history, while logs show what the service did and whether it was available.", "ifMissing": "Without control and records, people can be locked in by intimate history and cannot prove a failed handoff.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Clinical scope, consent, safeguarding, data, crisis and complaint duties", "whyNeeded": "Clinical, consent and safeguarding duties define what the tool may do, who owns the decision and how a person can complain.", "ifMissing": "Without enforceable limits, a supplier can blur support with treatment and shift responsibility after harm.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI04", "HBD-05" ] }, { "dependency": "Qualified staff, appointments, emergency response, transport and treatment capacity", "whyNeeded": "A digital handoff succeeds only if qualified people, appointments, transport and treatment are actually available.", "ifMissing": "Without human capacity, escalation becomes a message to an empty queue rather than care.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "SC-G06" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-019", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-institutional-b-013" ], "actorOrPerson": "Utility, grid planner and connection commissioner", "triggerOrContext": "Digital plans, renewable installations and new loads grow faster than transformers, transmission, connection and local permission.", "plainJob": "Show which projects actually got connected, when they can deliver power, what they cost, and who had to wait or pay more.", "observableCompletion": "Connection waits and equipment lead times fall while energised capacity, firm service, cost allocation, cancellations and affected-group outcomes are independently reported across participating regions.", "repeatedDemand": "At every queue review, connection offer, equipment delay, network milestone, tariff case and energisation decision.", "why2031Not2026": "2026 evidence reports installed capacity, queues and projected bottlenecks; W04 requires a repeated 2027-31 commissioning cycle rather than more plans or reservations.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "E03", "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Power queues and equipment delays affect both advanced and emerging economies in the IEA evidence", "Scenario possibility: W04 depends on projects moving from reservations to working connections", "Local records are needed because a national total can hide a blocked town or region" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Queue rules, grid ownership and cost sharing differ by market", "A region rich in generation may still lack wires, transformers or storage", "Connection speed says little about price or reliability unless those are measured too" ], "unknowns": [ "Queue totals include projects never built", "Projected loads are wide", "Energised capacity does not by itself establish affordability or firm service" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Utilities, system operators, regulators and planning bodies", "remedyIfItFails": "Queue correction, transparent cancellation, reallocation, cost review, connection condition or refusal", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Installed generation, a reservation or a policy target is not commissioned firm power or permission to operate." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise every queued project a connection", "Does not promise cheap electricity", "Does not treat capacity as usable output" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Speculative projects block viable ones", "whoIsHurt": "Ready housing, community-energy and service projects blocked behind speculative bookings", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Cancel stale queue positions after fair notice and reassign equipment to projects that can build" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Costs shift to households", "whoIsHurt": "Households and small businesses charged for a large customer's connection", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Review cost allocation, refund unfair charges and make the benefiting project pay its share" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Priority loads crowd out common services", "whoIsHurt": "People waiting for homes, transport, clinics or other common services", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Reserve or restore capacity for essential uses and publish the trade-off before approving priority load" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Energisation occurs without maintenance", "whoIsHurt": "Everyone relying on a new connection that fails after launch", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Require funded maintenance, spare equipment and service-quality checks before final payment" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Queue, equipment, energisation and service-quality records", "whyNeeded": "Queue, equipment and service records separate a reserved project from one that has working power at an agreed quality.", "ifMissing": "Without them, speculative bookings and partial installations can be reported as usable capacity.", "evidenceIds": [ "E03", "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02" ] }, { "dependency": "Utility regulation, planning, cost-allocation and appeal rules", "whyNeeded": "Utility and planning rules decide who gets connected, who pays and how a wrong queue decision can be challenged.", "ifMissing": "Without a fair rule and appeal, powerful customers can move costs or delays onto households and smaller projects.", "evidenceIds": [ "E05" ] }, { "dependency": "Transmission, distribution, transformers, generation, storage, cooling, land and skilled crews", "whyNeeded": "Wires, transformers, generation, storage, cooling, land and skilled crews are the physical chain that turns approval into reliable power.", "ifMissing": "If one link is missing, the project remains unpowered or runs unreliably no matter what the queue record says.", "evidenceIds": [ "E03", "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-institutional-b-013", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Utility, grid planner and connection commissioner", "triggerOrContext": "Digital plans, renewable installations and new loads grow faster than transformers, transmission, connection and local permission.", "plainJob": "Show which projects actually got connected, when they can deliver power, what they cost, and who had to wait or pay more.", "observableCompletion": "Connection waits and equipment lead times fall while energised capacity, firm service, cost allocation, cancellations and affected-group outcomes are independently reported across participating regions.", "repeatedDemand": "At every queue review, connection offer, equipment delay, network milestone, tariff case and energisation decision.", "why2031Not2026": "2026 evidence reports installed capacity, queues and projected bottlenecks; W04 requires a repeated 2027-31 commissioning cycle rather than more plans or reservations.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "E03", "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Power queues and equipment delays affect both advanced and emerging economies in the IEA evidence", "Scenario possibility: W04 depends on projects moving from reservations to working connections", "Local records are needed because a national total can hide a blocked town or region" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Queue rules, grid ownership and cost sharing differ by market", "A region rich in generation may still lack wires, transformers or storage", "Connection speed says little about price or reliability unless those are measured too" ], "unknowns": [ "Queue totals include projects never built", "Projected loads are wide", "Energised capacity does not by itself establish affordability or firm service" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Utilities, system operators, regulators and planning bodies", "remedyIfItFails": "Queue correction, transparent cancellation, reallocation, cost review, connection condition or refusal", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Installed generation, a reservation or a policy target is not commissioned firm power or permission to operate." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise every queued project a connection", "Does not promise cheap electricity", "Does not treat capacity as usable output" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Speculative projects block viable ones", "whoIsHurt": "Ready housing, community-energy and service projects blocked behind speculative bookings", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Cancel stale queue positions after fair notice and reassign equipment to projects that can build" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Costs shift to households", "whoIsHurt": "Households and small businesses charged for a large customer's connection", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Review cost allocation, refund unfair charges and make the benefiting project pay its share" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Priority loads crowd out common services", "whoIsHurt": "People waiting for homes, transport, clinics or other common services", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Reserve or restore capacity for essential uses and publish the trade-off before approving priority load" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Energisation occurs without maintenance", "whoIsHurt": "Everyone relying on a new connection that fails after launch", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Require funded maintenance, spare equipment and service-quality checks before final payment" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Queue, equipment, energisation and service-quality records", "whyNeeded": "Queue, equipment and service records separate a reserved project from one that has working power at an agreed quality.", "ifMissing": "Without them, speculative bookings and partial installations can be reported as usable capacity.", "evidenceIds": [ "E03", "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02" ] }, { "dependency": "Utility regulation, planning, cost-allocation and appeal rules", "whyNeeded": "Utility and planning rules decide who gets connected, who pays and how a wrong queue decision can be challenged.", "ifMissing": "Without a fair rule and appeal, powerful customers can move costs or delays onto households and smaller projects.", "evidenceIds": [ "E05" ] }, { "dependency": "Transmission, distribution, transformers, generation, storage, cooling, land and skilled crews", "whyNeeded": "Wires, transformers, generation, storage, cooling, land and skilled crews are the physical chain that turns approval into reliable power.", "ifMissing": "If one link is missing, the project remains unpowered or runs unreliably no matter what the queue record says.", "evidenceIds": [ "E03", "E05", "PC-S01", "PC-S02" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-020", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-institutional-b-014" ], "actorOrPerson": "Public, cooperative or regulated infrastructure buyer", "triggerOrContext": "Planning and bounded machines improve, but delivery can still fail through low utilisation, hidden interventions, absent spares, staff cuts or unmaintained assets.", "plainJob": "Pay for the service still working safely years later, with people, parts and repairs ready—not just for installing something once.", "observableCompletion": "Contracts tie payment and renewal to uptime, safe useful outcomes, intervention, repair time, energy, staffing, progression, user outcomes and end-of-life evidence; failures trigger correction or stop.", "repeatedDemand": "At procurement, acceptance, each reporting period, incident, maintenance interval, contract renewal and retirement.", "why2031Not2026": "Current sources show installations, bounded operation and lifecycle principles but incomplete field evidence; W04 makes outcome-based lifecycle procurement normal by 2029-31.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S11", "PC-S12", "RSM-13", "HBD-16", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: W04 would make long-term service contracts common for robots, care tools and infrastructure", "Robot installation evidence is concentrated in some regions and industries", "Health-system guidance offers useful service principles, but each country must turn them into enforceable contracts" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Inspection, labour and termination powers differ by sector and country", "Remote or rural places may wait longer for parts and repair staff", "A small public buyer may have less leverage over a global supplier" ], "unknowns": [ "No common safe-use series exists", "Supplier samples change", "Lifecycle cost and hidden support work are sparse" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The buyer, safety regulator and named professional duty-holder within contract and law", "remedyIfItFails": "Withhold payment, require repair or staffing, compensate affected people, suspend, replace or retire", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Procurement cannot waive safety, labour, tenant, clinical, educational, environmental or appeal duties." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise maintenance-free automation", "Does not promise one metric fits every domain", "Does not treat procurement intent as delivery" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Installation totals mask downtime", "whoIsHurt": "Patients, passengers, residents or workers whose installed service is often unavailable", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Measure usable service time, require repair and withhold payment until reliability recovers" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Vendor controls evidence", "whoIsHurt": "Service users and taxpayers when the supplier hides incidents or poor results", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Give an independent auditor access to raw records and reopen payment or approval decisions" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Underpaid humans rescue the service", "whoIsHurt": "Low-paid staff who quietly keep an unreliable system working", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Record the intervention work, correct staffing and pay, and include the labour in the real service cost" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Long contract locks in unsafe or obsolete systems", "whoIsHurt": "People dependent on a system that cannot be safely upgraded or replaced", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Use break clauses, require data and parts transfer, and run a safe replacement plan before ending support" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Independent lifecycle, intervention, incident and outcome evidence", "whyNeeded": "Independent records of uptime, interventions, incidents and user outcomes show whether the service remains safe after installation.", "ifMissing": "Without long-term evidence, a buyer can pay for a machine that is often down or secretly rescued by people.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S11", "PC-S12", "RSM-13", "HBD-16" ] }, { "dependency": "Procurement, audit, liability, labour, sector-safety and termination powers", "whyNeeded": "Contract, audit, labour, liability and termination powers let the buyer demand repair, protect workers and leave an unsafe supplier.", "ifMissing": "Without them, evidence of failure may not change payment, staffing or continued use.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-16", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ] }, { "dependency": "Staff, spare parts, access, depots, energy, buildings and replacement capacity", "whyNeeded": "Staff, parts, depots, energy and safe site access make repair and replacement possible over the whole contract.", "ifMissing": "Without this support chain, a minor failure can close the service for weeks or make the buyer depend on one vendor.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S11", "PC-S12" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-institutional-b-014", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Public, cooperative or regulated infrastructure buyer", "triggerOrContext": "Planning and bounded machines improve, but delivery can still fail through low utilisation, hidden interventions, absent spares, staff cuts or unmaintained assets.", "plainJob": "Pay for the service still working safely years later, with people, parts and repairs ready—not just for installing something once.", "observableCompletion": "Contracts tie payment and renewal to uptime, safe useful outcomes, intervention, repair time, energy, staffing, progression, user outcomes and end-of-life evidence; failures trigger correction or stop.", "repeatedDemand": "At procurement, acceptance, each reporting period, incident, maintenance interval, contract renewal and retirement.", "why2031Not2026": "Current sources show installations, bounded operation and lifecycle principles but incomplete field evidence; W04 makes outcome-based lifecycle procurement normal by 2029-31.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S11", "PC-S12", "RSM-13", "HBD-16", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: W04 would make long-term service contracts common for robots, care tools and infrastructure", "Robot installation evidence is concentrated in some regions and industries", "Health-system guidance offers useful service principles, but each country must turn them into enforceable contracts" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Inspection, labour and termination powers differ by sector and country", "Remote or rural places may wait longer for parts and repair staff", "A small public buyer may have less leverage over a global supplier" ], "unknowns": [ "No common safe-use series exists", "Supplier samples change", "Lifecycle cost and hidden support work are sparse" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The buyer, safety regulator and named professional duty-holder within contract and law", "remedyIfItFails": "Withhold payment, require repair or staffing, compensate affected people, suspend, replace or retire", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Procurement cannot waive safety, labour, tenant, clinical, educational, environmental or appeal duties." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise maintenance-free automation", "Does not promise one metric fits every domain", "Does not treat procurement intent as delivery" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Installation totals mask downtime", "whoIsHurt": "Patients, passengers, residents or workers whose installed service is often unavailable", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Measure usable service time, require repair and withhold payment until reliability recovers" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Vendor controls evidence", "whoIsHurt": "Service users and taxpayers when the supplier hides incidents or poor results", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Give an independent auditor access to raw records and reopen payment or approval decisions" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Underpaid humans rescue the service", "whoIsHurt": "Low-paid staff who quietly keep an unreliable system working", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Record the intervention work, correct staffing and pay, and include the labour in the real service cost" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Long contract locks in unsafe or obsolete systems", "whoIsHurt": "People dependent on a system that cannot be safely upgraded or replaced", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Use break clauses, require data and parts transfer, and run a safe replacement plan before ending support" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Independent lifecycle, intervention, incident and outcome evidence", "whyNeeded": "Independent records of uptime, interventions, incidents and user outcomes show whether the service remains safe after installation.", "ifMissing": "Without long-term evidence, a buyer can pay for a machine that is often down or secretly rescued by people.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S11", "PC-S12", "RSM-13", "HBD-16" ] }, { "dependency": "Procurement, audit, liability, labour, sector-safety and termination powers", "whyNeeded": "Contract, audit, labour, liability and termination powers let the buyer demand repair, protect workers and leave an unsafe supplier.", "ifMissing": "Without them, evidence of failure may not change payment, staffing or continued use.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-16", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ] }, { "dependency": "Staff, spare parts, access, depots, energy, buildings and replacement capacity", "whyNeeded": "Staff, parts, depots, energy and safe site access make repair and replacement possible over the whole contract.", "ifMissing": "Without this support chain, a minor failure can close the service for weeks or make the buyer depend on one vendor.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S11", "PC-S12" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-021", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-institutional-b-015" ], "actorOrPerson": "Safety body, fleet operator and insurer or procurer", "triggerOrContext": "A machine enters a new site, task, population, weather condition or renewal cycle in logistics, infrastructure, care support or another bounded physical domain.", "plainJob": "Prove the machine finishes useful work without hurting people or property, hiding human rescue, or failing when something goes wrong.", "observableCompletion": "For the specific sector and operating domain, its named responsible assessor independently reports multi-year exposure, safe completion, intervention, remote-assistance time, damage, near misses, energy, downtime, repair and recovery, including unseen conditions relevant to that domain.", "repeatedDemand": "Before expansion, after material updates or incidents, at renewal, and whenever the operating domain changes.", "why2031Not2026": "Current installations are large but specialised and public safety benchmarks expose measurement gaps; W04 depends on mature fleet evidence by 2028-31.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S11", "PC-S12", "RSM-13", "HBD-16" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: W04 puts more machines into physical jobs where a failure can hurt people or damage essential services", "Industrial robot evidence is strongest in parts of Asia and other manufacturing centres", "International medical guidance offers principles, but enforcement remains local" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Weather, site layout and the people nearby change the risk", "Liability and incident-reporting rules differ by country and sector", "Remote human help may be hidden in one market and openly staffed in another" ], "unknowns": [ "No universal safe-success measure exists", "Hidden remote support is rarely comparable", "Field lifetime and update safety are sparse" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Independent safety, sector and workplace bodies; the operator remains accountable for operation", "remedyIfItFails": "Restrict domain, require human supervision or repair, suspend deployment, notify affected people and compensate harm", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Nominal task success, unit sales, simulation or vendor claims do not establish safe field operation." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise zero incidents", "Does not infer general autonomy", "Does not compare unlike domains with one safety measure" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Unsafe completion is treated as success", "whoIsHurt": "Workers, patients, passengers and bystanders exposed to a machine that finishes unsafely", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Record harm and human rescue as failure, restrict the task and compensate verified injury or loss" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Remote human labour is hidden", "whoIsHurt": "Remote operators whose hidden interventions make the machine appear autonomous", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Disclose the labour, set safe workloads and pay, and include every intervention in performance results" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Updates invalidate the safety case", "whoIsHurt": "People using a machine whose new software no longer matches its safety proof", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Pause the update or service, repeat the safety tests and roll back until the new version passes" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Expansion outruns recovery and repair", "whoIsHurt": "Communities relying on fleets that grow faster than repair and rescue capacity", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Limit fleet size, add trained rescue and repair capacity, and publish recovery times before expansion" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Exposure-normalised logging, incident evidence, version control and recovery tests", "whyNeeded": "This means comparing incidents with the hours, tasks, sites and people actually exposed, while tracking software versions and recovery tests.", "ifMissing": "Without a fair exposure measure, a small trial can look safer than a busy fleet and a risky update can hide inside an average.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S11", "PC-S12", "RSM-13", "HBD-16" ] }, { "dependency": "Safety cases, inspection, liability, reporting and stop powers", "whyNeeded": "A safety case states the allowed job and evidence; inspection, reporting, liability and stop powers make those limits enforceable.", "ifMissing": "Without these powers, assessors can spot danger but cannot pause the machine, notify people or secure repair.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-16" ] }, { "dependency": "Test sites, maintenance, spares, safe access, communication and trained rescue staff", "whyNeeded": "Real test sites, trained rescue staff, communications, maintenance and spares show that failures can be contained and recovered from.", "ifMissing": "Without them, a system may pass a clean demonstration but fail dangerously in ordinary use.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S11", "PC-S12" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-institutional-b-015", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Safety body, fleet operator and insurer or procurer", "triggerOrContext": "A machine enters a new site, task, population, weather condition or renewal cycle in logistics, infrastructure, care support or another bounded physical domain.", "plainJob": "Prove the machine finishes useful work without hurting people or property, hiding human rescue, or failing when something goes wrong.", "observableCompletion": "For the specific sector and operating domain, its named responsible assessor independently reports multi-year exposure, safe completion, intervention, remote-assistance time, damage, near misses, energy, downtime, repair and recovery, including unseen conditions relevant to that domain.", "repeatedDemand": "Before expansion, after material updates or incidents, at renewal, and whenever the operating domain changes.", "why2031Not2026": "Current installations are large but specialised and public safety benchmarks expose measurement gaps; W04 depends on mature fleet evidence by 2028-31.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S11", "PC-S12", "RSM-13", "HBD-16" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: W04 puts more machines into physical jobs where a failure can hurt people or damage essential services", "Industrial robot evidence is strongest in parts of Asia and other manufacturing centres", "International medical guidance offers principles, but enforcement remains local" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Weather, site layout and the people nearby change the risk", "Liability and incident-reporting rules differ by country and sector", "Remote human help may be hidden in one market and openly staffed in another" ], "unknowns": [ "No universal safe-success measure exists", "Hidden remote support is rarely comparable", "Field lifetime and update safety are sparse" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Independent safety, sector and workplace bodies; the operator remains accountable for operation", "remedyIfItFails": "Restrict domain, require human supervision or repair, suspend deployment, notify affected people and compensate harm", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Nominal task success, unit sales, simulation or vendor claims do not establish safe field operation." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise zero incidents", "Does not infer general autonomy", "Does not compare unlike domains with one safety measure" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Unsafe completion is treated as success", "whoIsHurt": "Workers, patients, passengers and bystanders exposed to a machine that finishes unsafely", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Record harm and human rescue as failure, restrict the task and compensate verified injury or loss" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Remote human labour is hidden", "whoIsHurt": "Remote operators whose hidden interventions make the machine appear autonomous", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Disclose the labour, set safe workloads and pay, and include every intervention in performance results" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Updates invalidate the safety case", "whoIsHurt": "People using a machine whose new software no longer matches its safety proof", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Pause the update or service, repeat the safety tests and roll back until the new version passes" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Expansion outruns recovery and repair", "whoIsHurt": "Communities relying on fleets that grow faster than repair and rescue capacity", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Limit fleet size, add trained rescue and repair capacity, and publish recovery times before expansion" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Exposure-normalised logging, incident evidence, version control and recovery tests", "whyNeeded": "This means comparing incidents with the hours, tasks, sites and people actually exposed, while tracking software versions and recovery tests.", "ifMissing": "Without a fair exposure measure, a small trial can look safer than a busy fleet and a risky update can hide inside an average.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S11", "PC-S12", "RSM-13", "HBD-16" ] }, { "dependency": "Safety cases, inspection, liability, reporting and stop powers", "whyNeeded": "A safety case states the allowed job and evidence; inspection, reporting, liability and stop powers make those limits enforceable.", "ifMissing": "Without these powers, assessors can spot danger but cannot pause the machine, notify people or secure repair.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-16" ] }, { "dependency": "Test sites, maintenance, spares, safe access, communication and trained rescue staff", "whyNeeded": "Real test sites, trained rescue staff, communications, maintenance and spares show that failures can be contained and recovered from.", "ifMissing": "Without them, a system may pass a clean demonstration but fail dangerously in ordinary use.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S11", "PC-S12" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-022", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-institutional-b-016" ], "actorOrPerson": "Regional assurance lab, standards body and public buyer", "triggerOrContext": "Multiple regions commission similar grids, fleets, care and learning systems but have unequal ability to test, certify, maintain and appeal.", "plainJob": "Let a safe smaller provider prove its work once in a fair test, fix a failure, and be accepted in more than one place.", "observableCompletion": "Open test methods, costs, failure reasons and retest results are published. Regions can accept one another's results when safety conditions match, small suppliers can afford the process, and field results show the system still works over time.", "repeatedDemand": "At each standard revision, new domain or region, material update, failed audit and recognition renewal.", "why2031Not2026": "Current standards and national plans are mainly principles or intent; W04 requires operational regional labs and contestable recognition by 2030-31.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "HBD-16", "PC-S09", "PC-S10", "RSM-13" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: W04 needs regional test labs so smaller places can check physical systems before buying them", "Japan and South Korea provide relevant policy examples, not a template for every region", "Shared standards matter globally when equipment and suppliers cross borders" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Regions have different lab budgets, languages and technical skills", "A test designed for one climate or worksite may miss another region's hazards", "Rules for accepting another lab's result differ by country and sector" ], "unknowns": [ "Plans do not prove adoption", "Common tests may not transfer to local risk", "Fixed costs and language can still exclude" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Recognised standards, accreditation, sector and procurement bodies", "remedyIfItFails": "Transparent failure, assisted retest, scoped recognition, corrective action and independent appeal", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Accepting another region's test result cannot cancel local safety, labour, environmental or service-law duties." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise automatic market access", "Does not lower safety for inclusion", "Does not claim one standard fits every physical setting" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Certification entrenches large incumbents", "whoIsHurt": "Small and local suppliers that cannot afford a large-company certification process", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Offer shared labs, clear fees and assisted retests while keeping the same safety threshold" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Paper compliance replaces field evidence", "whoIsHurt": "Workers and service users exposed when paperwork passes but field performance fails", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Require local field trials, publish failures and suspend recognition until corrective tests pass" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Regional recognition imports unsafe assumptions", "whoIsHurt": "Residents facing hazards that the original region's test did not include", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Limit acceptance to matched conditions and require extra local tests for climate, site and population risks" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Informal repair is criminalised without an accessible path", "whoIsHurt": "Local repair workers and communities stranded when only authorised incumbents may fix equipment", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Create an accessible lawful repair route with training, parts access and safety checks" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Open test protocols, versioned evidence and interoperable reporting", "whyNeeded": "Open, versioned test methods let different labs repeat the same check and understand which software and conditions produced the result.", "ifMissing": "Without shared methods, suppliers can submit polished but incomparable evidence and failures cannot be traced after an update.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-16", "RSM-13" ] }, { "dependency": "Accreditation, procurement, recognition and appeal arrangements", "whyNeeded": "Accreditation says which labs are trusted, procurement uses the result, and appeal plus recognition rules let suppliers challenge or reuse a valid test.", "ifMissing": "Without these arrangements, a good test may have no legal effect or each region may charge for the same work again.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "HBD-16" ] }, { "dependency": "Regional labs, test equipment, skilled assessors and local field sites", "whyNeeded": "Regional labs need equipment, skilled assessors and local field sites to test the hazards people will actually face.", "ifMissing": "Without nearby capacity, smaller suppliers and public buyers must rely on distant vendor evidence that may not fit local conditions.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S09", "PC-S10" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-institutional-b-016", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Regional assurance lab, standards body and public buyer", "triggerOrContext": "Multiple regions commission similar grids, fleets, care and learning systems but have unequal ability to test, certify, maintain and appeal.", "plainJob": "Let a safe smaller provider prove its work once in a fair test, fix a failure, and be accepted in more than one place.", "observableCompletion": "Open test methods, costs, failure reasons and retest results are published. Regions can accept one another's results when safety conditions match, small suppliers can afford the process, and field results show the system still works over time.", "repeatedDemand": "At each standard revision, new domain or region, material update, failed audit and recognition renewal.", "why2031Not2026": "Current standards and national plans are mainly principles or intent; W04 requires operational regional labs and contestable recognition by 2030-31.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "HBD-16", "PC-S09", "PC-S10", "RSM-13" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: W04 needs regional test labs so smaller places can check physical systems before buying them", "Japan and South Korea provide relevant policy examples, not a template for every region", "Shared standards matter globally when equipment and suppliers cross borders" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Regions have different lab budgets, languages and technical skills", "A test designed for one climate or worksite may miss another region's hazards", "Rules for accepting another lab's result differ by country and sector" ], "unknowns": [ "Plans do not prove adoption", "Common tests may not transfer to local risk", "Fixed costs and language can still exclude" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Recognised standards, accreditation, sector and procurement bodies", "remedyIfItFails": "Transparent failure, assisted retest, scoped recognition, corrective action and independent appeal", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Accepting another region's test result cannot cancel local safety, labour, environmental or service-law duties." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise automatic market access", "Does not lower safety for inclusion", "Does not claim one standard fits every physical setting" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Certification entrenches large incumbents", "whoIsHurt": "Small and local suppliers that cannot afford a large-company certification process", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Offer shared labs, clear fees and assisted retests while keeping the same safety threshold" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Paper compliance replaces field evidence", "whoIsHurt": "Workers and service users exposed when paperwork passes but field performance fails", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Require local field trials, publish failures and suspend recognition until corrective tests pass" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Regional recognition imports unsafe assumptions", "whoIsHurt": "Residents facing hazards that the original region's test did not include", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Limit acceptance to matched conditions and require extra local tests for climate, site and population risks" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Informal repair is criminalised without an accessible path", "whoIsHurt": "Local repair workers and communities stranded when only authorised incumbents may fix equipment", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Create an accessible lawful repair route with training, parts access and safety checks" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Open test protocols, versioned evidence and interoperable reporting", "whyNeeded": "Open, versioned test methods let different labs repeat the same check and understand which software and conditions produced the result.", "ifMissing": "Without shared methods, suppliers can submit polished but incomparable evidence and failures cannot be traced after an update.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-16", "RSM-13" ] }, { "dependency": "Accreditation, procurement, recognition and appeal arrangements", "whyNeeded": "Accreditation says which labs are trusted, procurement uses the result, and appeal plus recognition rules let suppliers challenge or reuse a valid test.", "ifMissing": "Without these arrangements, a good test may have no legal effect or each region may charge for the same work again.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "HBD-16" ] }, { "dependency": "Regional labs, test equipment, skilled assessors and local field sites", "whyNeeded": "Regional labs need equipment, skilled assessors and local field sites to test the hazards people will actually face.", "ifMissing": "Without nearby capacity, smaller suppliers and public buyers must rely on distant vendor evidence that may not fit local conditions.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S09", "PC-S10" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-023", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-institutional-b-017" ], "actorOrPerson": "Climate-adaptation authority, municipality and funder", "triggerOrContext": "Climate losses, protection gaps and pressure on grids, buildings, water and health create sustained physical renewal demand.", "plainJob": "Prove the project keeps people safer during real heat, flood, fire or outage, including renters and low-income residents, and keep it working.", "observableCompletion": "Deaths, displacement, downtime, losses, prices and essential-service failures fall in funded places when compared with places facing similar hazards. Results are shown separately for renters and low-income residents, and maintenance failures are public.", "repeatedDemand": "Before funding, after each hazard season or event, at maintenance checks, displacement reviews and contract renewal.", "why2031Not2026": "Current evidence establishes climate conditions, finance needs and protection gaps, not the W04 2029-31 maintained avoided-loss cycle.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "C01", "C04", "C10", "E05", "PC-S01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Climate risk is global, while each project's result must be checked in its own place", "Adaptation-finance evidence places much of the unmet need in developing countries", "The insurance dashboard describes European markets only", "Scenario possibility: W04 would tie funding to lower harm, not just completed construction" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Flood, heat, fire and drought require different measures", "Renting, land rights and public-service coverage change who benefits", "Maintenance money and local crews vary long after a project opens", "A project can move risk from one neighbourhood or group to another" ], "unknowns": [ "Needs estimates vary", "Event attribution and hazard normalisation are difficult", "Projects can shift risk across places or groups" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Public climate, planning, utility and emergency bodies with affected-community participation", "remedyIfItFails": "Redesign, maintenance, compensation, anti-displacement action, service correction or project stop", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Finance, an installed asset or insurance coverage does not by itself establish avoided loss, fairness or continuing protection." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise no future loss", "Does not claim every event is attributable to one cause", "Does not equate spending with adaptation" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Maladaptation shifts risk", "whoIsHurt": "Residents downstream or nearby when a project moves heat, flood or water risk onto them", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Map the shifted risk, redesign or stop the project and compensate verified loss" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Green displacement removes beneficiaries", "whoIsHurt": "Renters and low-income residents displaced after their area becomes safer or more valuable", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Add rent and tenure protection before funding, monitor moves and provide a right to return" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Protection fails without grid or staff", "whoIsHurt": "People who depend on cooling, clinics, drainage or alerts that lack power or staff", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Fund the missing grid, workers and maintenance; provide an interim service until the full system works" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Average gains hide renter and low-income harm", "whoIsHurt": "Renters and low-income households hidden by an improved citywide average", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish results by tenure, income and neighbourhood, then redirect funding to groups still facing harm" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Hazard, exposure, service and maintenance measurement", "whyNeeded": "Hazard, exposure, service and maintenance data compare similar risks before and after a project instead of crediting it for easier weather.", "ifMissing": "Without a fair comparison, a quiet year can make a weak project look successful while hidden risks keep growing.", "evidenceIds": [ "C01", "C10" ] }, { "dependency": "Planning, tenant, environmental, emergency, procurement and compensation powers", "whyNeeded": "Planning, tenant, emergency and compensation powers let authorities prevent displacement, correct shifted risk and stop a harmful design.", "ifMissing": "Without those powers, officials can publish unequal outcomes but cannot protect residents or require repair.", "evidenceIds": [ "C04" ] }, { "dependency": "Grids, buildings, cooling, water, drainage, transport, clinics and maintenance crews", "whyNeeded": "Cooling, drainage, power, transport, clinics and maintenance crews are the services that turn a funded design into lower harm.", "ifMissing": "If these systems or staff fail together during a hazard, the project cannot protect the people it was built for.", "evidenceIds": [ "E05", "PC-S01", "C04" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-institutional-b-017", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Climate-adaptation authority, municipality and funder", "triggerOrContext": "Climate losses, protection gaps and pressure on grids, buildings, water and health create sustained physical renewal demand.", "plainJob": "Prove the project keeps people safer during real heat, flood, fire or outage, including renters and low-income residents, and keep it working.", "observableCompletion": "Deaths, displacement, downtime, losses, prices and essential-service failures fall in funded places when compared with places facing similar hazards. Results are shown separately for renters and low-income residents, and maintenance failures are public.", "repeatedDemand": "Before funding, after each hazard season or event, at maintenance checks, displacement reviews and contract renewal.", "why2031Not2026": "Current evidence establishes climate conditions, finance needs and protection gaps, not the W04 2029-31 maintained avoided-loss cycle.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "C01", "C04", "C10", "E05", "PC-S01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Climate risk is global, while each project's result must be checked in its own place", "Adaptation-finance evidence places much of the unmet need in developing countries", "The insurance dashboard describes European markets only", "Scenario possibility: W04 would tie funding to lower harm, not just completed construction" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Flood, heat, fire and drought require different measures", "Renting, land rights and public-service coverage change who benefits", "Maintenance money and local crews vary long after a project opens", "A project can move risk from one neighbourhood or group to another" ], "unknowns": [ "Needs estimates vary", "Event attribution and hazard normalisation are difficult", "Projects can shift risk across places or groups" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Public climate, planning, utility and emergency bodies with affected-community participation", "remedyIfItFails": "Redesign, maintenance, compensation, anti-displacement action, service correction or project stop", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Finance, an installed asset or insurance coverage does not by itself establish avoided loss, fairness or continuing protection." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise no future loss", "Does not claim every event is attributable to one cause", "Does not equate spending with adaptation" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Maladaptation shifts risk", "whoIsHurt": "Residents downstream or nearby when a project moves heat, flood or water risk onto them", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Map the shifted risk, redesign or stop the project and compensate verified loss" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Green displacement removes beneficiaries", "whoIsHurt": "Renters and low-income residents displaced after their area becomes safer or more valuable", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Add rent and tenure protection before funding, monitor moves and provide a right to return" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Protection fails without grid or staff", "whoIsHurt": "People who depend on cooling, clinics, drainage or alerts that lack power or staff", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Fund the missing grid, workers and maintenance; provide an interim service until the full system works" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Average gains hide renter and low-income harm", "whoIsHurt": "Renters and low-income households hidden by an improved citywide average", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish results by tenure, income and neighbourhood, then redirect funding to groups still facing harm" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Hazard, exposure, service and maintenance measurement", "whyNeeded": "Hazard, exposure, service and maintenance data compare similar risks before and after a project instead of crediting it for easier weather.", "ifMissing": "Without a fair comparison, a quiet year can make a weak project look successful while hidden risks keep growing.", "evidenceIds": [ "C01", "C10" ] }, { "dependency": "Planning, tenant, environmental, emergency, procurement and compensation powers", "whyNeeded": "Planning, tenant, emergency and compensation powers let authorities prevent displacement, correct shifted risk and stop a harmful design.", "ifMissing": "Without those powers, officials can publish unequal outcomes but cannot protect residents or require repair.", "evidenceIds": [ "C04" ] }, { "dependency": "Grids, buildings, cooling, water, drainage, transport, clinics and maintenance crews", "whyNeeded": "Cooling, drainage, power, transport, clinics and maintenance crews are the services that turn a funded design into lower harm.", "ifMissing": "If these systems or staff fail together during a hazard, the project cannot protect the people it was built for.", "evidenceIds": [ "E05", "PC-S01", "C04" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-024", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-institutional-b-018" ], "actorOrPerson": "Health and care system commissioner", "triggerOrContext": "Ageing, service-coverage and workforce pressures sustain demand while procurement can either support staff or replace them with synthetic attention.", "plainJob": "Make sure there are enough real people to assess, care and follow up, and use digital help only when it gets someone safely to them.", "observableCompletion": "Staffing, retention, response, continuity, treatment or care outcome, handoff and appeal improve together; digital routes disclose limits and never remove a named human duty-holder.", "repeatedDemand": "At each commissioning cycle, workforce review, care episode, handoff failure, model update and service renewal.", "why2031Not2026": "Current evidence shows coverage and workforce constraints plus short relational studies; W04 assumes funded staffed pathways and lifecycle commissioning become normal by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "HBD-16", "SC-G05", "SC-G06", "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Health and care workforce shortages appear across regions", "Online studies of synthetic relationships cannot represent all patients or services", "Scenario possibility: W04 uses digital help only as a bridge into staffed care" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Rural, remote and urban systems face different travel and staffing limits", "Clinical scope, consent and complaint rules differ by country", "Culture, language, disability and trust change whether a handoff works" ], "unknowns": [ "Workforce totals do not show quality or access", "Planning may not retain staff", "Digital assistance effects vary by person and service capacity" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Licensed clinicians, statutory care bodies and named service commissioners", "remedyIfItFails": "Human reassessment, urgent escalation, continuity, complaint, staffing correction and contract enforcement", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A synthetic interaction, navigation result or model output is not treatment, consent, clinical judgement or embodied care." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise a cure", "Does not promise enough workers in every place", "Does not equate contact with quality care" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Procurement removes staff", "whoIsHurt": "Patients and care workers when a digital purchase is funded by removing needed staff", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Restore staffing and human appointments, revise the contract and track access after the correction" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Surveillance enters intimate care", "whoIsHurt": "Patients whose intimate information is collected beyond what care requires", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Stop unnecessary collection, delete or restrict the data and provide an independent privacy complaint" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Remote or underserved access stays weak", "whoIsHurt": "People in remote or underserved places who still cannot reach care", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Fund travel, outreach, remote clinicians and continuity instead of treating a digital contact as completed care" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Handoff fails despite a polished interaction", "whoIsHurt": "A person whose polished digital conversation never reaches treatment or support", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Confirm receipt by a named service, keep urgent contact open and review every failed handoff" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Disclosed routing, lifecycle monitoring and accessible records", "whyNeeded": "Disclosed routing and accessible records show what the digital tool did, which human service received the case and what happened next.", "ifMissing": "Without a visible handoff trail, a polished conversation can be reported as care even when no treatment or support followed.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-16", "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02" ] }, { "dependency": "Clinical, care, consent, safeguarding, employment and service-appeal duties", "whyNeeded": "Clinical, care, consent and appeal duties keep licensed people responsible and give patients a route to challenge unsafe substitution.", "ifMissing": "Without them, procurement can remove staff or collect intimate data without a clear owner for the harm.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "HBD-16" ] }, { "dependency": "Staff, facilities, transport, medicines, devices, housing support and emergency capacity", "whyNeeded": "People, facilities, transport, medicines, devices and emergency capacity are what make advice become real care.", "ifMissing": "Without this capacity, the system can identify the right next step but cannot deliver it.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "SC-G06" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-institutional-b-018", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Health and care system commissioner", "triggerOrContext": "Ageing, service-coverage and workforce pressures sustain demand while procurement can either support staff or replace them with synthetic attention.", "plainJob": "Make sure there are enough real people to assess, care and follow up, and use digital help only when it gets someone safely to them.", "observableCompletion": "Staffing, retention, response, continuity, treatment or care outcome, handoff and appeal improve together; digital routes disclose limits and never remove a named human duty-holder.", "repeatedDemand": "At each commissioning cycle, workforce review, care episode, handoff failure, model update and service renewal.", "why2031Not2026": "Current evidence shows coverage and workforce constraints plus short relational studies; W04 assumes funded staffed pathways and lifecycle commissioning become normal by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "HBD-16", "SC-G05", "SC-G06", "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Health and care workforce shortages appear across regions", "Online studies of synthetic relationships cannot represent all patients or services", "Scenario possibility: W04 uses digital help only as a bridge into staffed care" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Rural, remote and urban systems face different travel and staffing limits", "Clinical scope, consent and complaint rules differ by country", "Culture, language, disability and trust change whether a handoff works" ], "unknowns": [ "Workforce totals do not show quality or access", "Planning may not retain staff", "Digital assistance effects vary by person and service capacity" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Licensed clinicians, statutory care bodies and named service commissioners", "remedyIfItFails": "Human reassessment, urgent escalation, continuity, complaint, staffing correction and contract enforcement", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A synthetic interaction, navigation result or model output is not treatment, consent, clinical judgement or embodied care." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise a cure", "Does not promise enough workers in every place", "Does not equate contact with quality care" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Procurement removes staff", "whoIsHurt": "Patients and care workers when a digital purchase is funded by removing needed staff", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Restore staffing and human appointments, revise the contract and track access after the correction" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Surveillance enters intimate care", "whoIsHurt": "Patients whose intimate information is collected beyond what care requires", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Stop unnecessary collection, delete or restrict the data and provide an independent privacy complaint" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Remote or underserved access stays weak", "whoIsHurt": "People in remote or underserved places who still cannot reach care", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Fund travel, outreach, remote clinicians and continuity instead of treating a digital contact as completed care" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Handoff fails despite a polished interaction", "whoIsHurt": "A person whose polished digital conversation never reaches treatment or support", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Confirm receipt by a named service, keep urgent contact open and review every failed handoff" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Disclosed routing, lifecycle monitoring and accessible records", "whyNeeded": "Disclosed routing and accessible records show what the digital tool did, which human service received the case and what happened next.", "ifMissing": "Without a visible handoff trail, a polished conversation can be reported as care even when no treatment or support followed.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-16", "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02" ] }, { "dependency": "Clinical, care, consent, safeguarding, employment and service-appeal duties", "whyNeeded": "Clinical, care, consent and appeal duties keep licensed people responsible and give patients a route to challenge unsafe substitution.", "ifMissing": "Without them, procurement can remove staff or collect intimate data without a clear owner for the harm.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "HBD-16" ] }, { "dependency": "Staff, facilities, transport, medicines, devices, housing support and emergency capacity", "whyNeeded": "People, facilities, transport, medicines, devices and emergency capacity are what make advice become real care.", "ifMissing": "Without this capacity, the system can identify the right next step but cannot deliver it.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "SC-G06" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-025", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-institutional-b-019" ], "actorOrPerson": "Education, skills and apprenticeship authority", "triggerOrContext": "Climate, care, grid, building and maintenance demand grows while some cognitive tasks contract and learning tools spread.", "plainJob": "Give learners a teacher, real practice, feedback, and a fair next step into paid useful work.", "observableCompletion": "Learners demonstrate retained skill in independent assessment, complete supervised practice, progress into paid placements or roles, and can appeal exclusion; staffing and outcomes are split by place and protected group.", "repeatedDemand": "Every intake, lesson cycle, assessment, placement, credential transfer, apprenticeship review and employer transition.", "why2031Not2026": "Current evidence supports governed learning and one short facilitated trial, not scaled durable outcomes; W04 creates repeated labour-using renewal demand by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s05", "EWF-04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "OECD evidence describes many formal education systems", "A short Nigeria intervention adds one non-OECD result but does not prove scale", "Global labour studies describe task exposure, not actual job openings", "Scenario possibility: W04 creates recurring demand for skilled maintenance, care and infrastructure work" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Trade standards and apprenticeship wages differ by country", "Rural areas may have fewer teachers, workshops and placements", "Language, disability access, devices and transport change who can finish", "Employers may not recognise the same training across regions" ], "unknowns": [ "Short gains may not persist or scale", "Exposure is not actual job demand", "Rural teacher and placement retention is unresolved" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Education, accreditation, apprenticeship and labour bodies with teacher and worker voice", "remedyIfItFails": "Reassessment, supervised catch-up, accessible placement, portable credit and independent appeal", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Generated output, attendance, an installed learning system or a short test gain does not prove durable learning, competence or employment." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise a job", "Does not promise one teaching model scales globally", "Does not treat all physical work as good work" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Synthetic-only learning removes human feedback", "whoIsHurt": "Learners who receive generated answers but little feedback or real practice", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Restore teacher time, supervised practice and a practical reassessment at no extra cost" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Placements use learners as cheap labour", "whoIsHurt": "Learners used as unpaid substitutes for qualified staff", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Require paid, supervised placements with learning goals and remove unsafe or exploitative tasks" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Certification excludes small or rural providers", "whoIsHurt": "Learners and small providers in rural areas priced out by certification", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Offer regional assessment, travel support and fair fees without lowering the skill or safety standard" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Surveillance replaces trust", "whoIsHurt": "Learners and teachers harmed when monitoring replaces a trusting learning relationship", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Limit data to what assessment needs, allow challenge and use direct observation instead of constant tracking" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Assessment separated from generated work and portable learning records", "whyNeeded": "Practical assessment separate from generated work shows the learner can perform the task, while portable records preserve that proof.", "ifMissing": "Without this separation, generated answers can earn credit and a genuine skill may disappear when the learner moves.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s05" ] }, { "dependency": "Education, accreditation, apprenticeship, labour, disability and privacy rules", "whyNeeded": "Education, apprenticeship, wage, safety, equality and privacy rules protect learners and make training recognised beyond one provider.", "ifMissing": "Without them, placements can become unsafe cheap labour and valid learning may not be accepted elsewhere.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ] }, { "dependency": "Teachers, workshops, safe equipment, placements, transport, devices and connectivity", "whyNeeded": "Teachers, workshops, safe equipment, placements, transport and connectivity supply the repeated practice needed for skilled work.", "ifMissing": "If these are missing, the pathway teaches theory but cannot prepare or place a learner safely.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s05" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-institutional-b-019", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Education, skills and apprenticeship authority", "triggerOrContext": "Climate, care, grid, building and maintenance demand grows while some cognitive tasks contract and learning tools spread.", "plainJob": "Give learners a teacher, real practice, feedback, and a fair next step into paid useful work.", "observableCompletion": "Learners demonstrate retained skill in independent assessment, complete supervised practice, progress into paid placements or roles, and can appeal exclusion; staffing and outcomes are split by place and protected group.", "repeatedDemand": "Every intake, lesson cycle, assessment, placement, credential transfer, apprenticeship review and employer transition.", "why2031Not2026": "Current evidence supports governed learning and one short facilitated trial, not scaled durable outcomes; W04 creates repeated labour-using renewal demand by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s05", "EWF-04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "OECD evidence describes many formal education systems", "A short Nigeria intervention adds one non-OECD result but does not prove scale", "Global labour studies describe task exposure, not actual job openings", "Scenario possibility: W04 creates recurring demand for skilled maintenance, care and infrastructure work" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Trade standards and apprenticeship wages differ by country", "Rural areas may have fewer teachers, workshops and placements", "Language, disability access, devices and transport change who can finish", "Employers may not recognise the same training across regions" ], "unknowns": [ "Short gains may not persist or scale", "Exposure is not actual job demand", "Rural teacher and placement retention is unresolved" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Education, accreditation, apprenticeship and labour bodies with teacher and worker voice", "remedyIfItFails": "Reassessment, supervised catch-up, accessible placement, portable credit and independent appeal", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Generated output, attendance, an installed learning system or a short test gain does not prove durable learning, competence or employment." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise a job", "Does not promise one teaching model scales globally", "Does not treat all physical work as good work" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Synthetic-only learning removes human feedback", "whoIsHurt": "Learners who receive generated answers but little feedback or real practice", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Restore teacher time, supervised practice and a practical reassessment at no extra cost" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Placements use learners as cheap labour", "whoIsHurt": "Learners used as unpaid substitutes for qualified staff", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Require paid, supervised placements with learning goals and remove unsafe or exploitative tasks" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Certification excludes small or rural providers", "whoIsHurt": "Learners and small providers in rural areas priced out by certification", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Offer regional assessment, travel support and fair fees without lowering the skill or safety standard" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Surveillance replaces trust", "whoIsHurt": "Learners and teachers harmed when monitoring replaces a trusting learning relationship", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Limit data to what assessment needs, allow challenge and use direct observation instead of constant tracking" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Assessment separated from generated work and portable learning records", "whyNeeded": "Practical assessment separate from generated work shows the learner can perform the task, while portable records preserve that proof.", "ifMissing": "Without this separation, generated answers can earn credit and a genuine skill may disappear when the learner moves.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s05" ] }, { "dependency": "Education, accreditation, apprenticeship, labour, disability and privacy rules", "whyNeeded": "Education, apprenticeship, wage, safety, equality and privacy rules protect learners and make training recognised beyond one provider.", "ifMissing": "Without them, placements can become unsafe cheap labour and valid learning may not be accepted elsewhere.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ] }, { "dependency": "Teachers, workshops, safe equipment, placements, transport, devices and connectivity", "whyNeeded": "Teachers, workshops, safe equipment, placements, transport and connectivity supply the repeated practice needed for skilled work.", "ifMissing": "If these are missing, the pathway teaches theory but cannot prepare or place a learner safely.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s05" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-026", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-institutional-b-020" ], "actorOrPerson": "Regional fund, treasury, municipality and cooperative capital steward", "triggerOrContext": "Climate loss, grid and equipment delays, care and education pressure, and fiscal limits threaten to break coordinated renewal before benefits arrive.", "plainJob": "Keep money flowing for the people, repairs and backup that make a public project work for years, and stop paying when it does not.", "observableCompletion": "Funding is staged against energisation, staffing, safe service, maintained outcomes and equitable reach; lifecycle budgets, debt, ratepayer burden, contingency and stop decisions are public.", "repeatedDemand": "At budget cycles, milestones, hazard shocks, cost overruns, refinancing, outcome reviews and renewal or termination.", "why2031Not2026": "Current debt, queue and adaptation evidence shows pressure and intent; W04 depends on a sustained 2027-31 financing and maintenance cycle that is not yet observed.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-02", "C04", "E05", "PC-S01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Debt and infrastructure pressures affect many countries", "Adaptation finance and borrowing access differ sharply between richer and poorer economies", "Scenario possibility: W04 needs patient funding that lasts through construction, staffing and maintenance" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Interest rates, exchange rates and public borrowing room can change quickly", "Tax, utility and cooperative finance powers differ locally", "A place with capital may still lack equipment, workers or project-management capacity" ], "unknowns": [ "No joined global delivery-capacity series exists", "Climate escalation may outrun funding", "Debt and currency conditions can reverse quickly" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Legislatures, treasuries, regulated utilities, municipalities and cooperative owners", "remedyIfItFails": "Rephase, refinance, reallocate, correct burden, require maintenance, compensate or stop", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Financial commitment is not physical delivery, avoided harm, service quality or community consent." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise all projects remain affordable", "Does not promise debt is sustainable", "Does not equate capital spend with service" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Maintenance is cut first", "whoIsHurt": "Residents and workers who lose safe service when maintenance money is removed", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Ring-fence maintenance, restore critical repairs and delay expansion until the existing service is safe" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Ratepayers or tenants absorb overruns", "whoIsHurt": "Tenants and ordinary ratepayers charged for overruns they did not cause", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Audit the overrun, cap or refund unfair charges and move the cost to the responsible project or investor" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Flagships drain ordinary services", "whoIsHurt": "People using ordinary clinics, schools, transport or utilities drained by a flagship project", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish the trade-off, restore core-service budgets and rephase the flagship if essential service falls below its public duty" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Sunk-cost pressure keeps harmful projects alive", "whoIsHurt": "Affected residents kept in a harmful project because too much money has already been spent", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Use independent stop tests, disclose remaining losses and close or redesign the project when future harm exceeds benefit" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Milestone, outcome, cost and risk records", "whyNeeded": "Milestone, cost, risk and outcome records show whether each funding release produced working service and what still needs repair.", "ifMissing": "Without them, money can keep flowing because it was planned, even when benefits, staffing or safety never arrive.", "evidenceIds": [ "E05", "PC-S01" ] }, { "dependency": "Budget, procurement, utility, cooperative, debt and audit rules", "whyNeeded": "Budget, procurement, utility, debt and audit rules define who may commit money, who carries overruns and when a project can be changed or stopped.", "ifMissing": "Without clear authority, responsibility is blurred and tenants or ratepayers can inherit costs they did not approve.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-02", "C04" ] }, { "dependency": "Equipment, grids, buildings, staff, spares and distributed fallback", "whyNeeded": "Equipment, grids, buildings, staff, spares and fallback sites are the delivery capacity behind the financial plan.", "ifMissing": "Without physical and human capacity, extra funding cannot meet milestones and pressure grows to hide delay or cut maintenance.", "evidenceIds": [ "E05", "PC-S01", "C04" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-institutional-b-020", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Regional fund, treasury, municipality and cooperative capital steward", "triggerOrContext": "Climate loss, grid and equipment delays, care and education pressure, and fiscal limits threaten to break coordinated renewal before benefits arrive.", "plainJob": "Keep money flowing for the people, repairs and backup that make a public project work for years, and stop paying when it does not.", "observableCompletion": "Funding is staged against energisation, staffing, safe service, maintained outcomes and equitable reach; lifecycle budgets, debt, ratepayer burden, contingency and stop decisions are public.", "repeatedDemand": "At budget cycles, milestones, hazard shocks, cost overruns, refinancing, outcome reviews and renewal or termination.", "why2031Not2026": "Current debt, queue and adaptation evidence shows pressure and intent; W04 depends on a sustained 2027-31 financing and maintenance cycle that is not yet observed.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-02", "C04", "E05", "PC-S01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Debt and infrastructure pressures affect many countries", "Adaptation finance and borrowing access differ sharply between richer and poorer economies", "Scenario possibility: W04 needs patient funding that lasts through construction, staffing and maintenance" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Interest rates, exchange rates and public borrowing room can change quickly", "Tax, utility and cooperative finance powers differ locally", "A place with capital may still lack equipment, workers or project-management capacity" ], "unknowns": [ "No joined global delivery-capacity series exists", "Climate escalation may outrun funding", "Debt and currency conditions can reverse quickly" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Legislatures, treasuries, regulated utilities, municipalities and cooperative owners", "remedyIfItFails": "Rephase, refinance, reallocate, correct burden, require maintenance, compensate or stop", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Financial commitment is not physical delivery, avoided harm, service quality or community consent." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise all projects remain affordable", "Does not promise debt is sustainable", "Does not equate capital spend with service" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Maintenance is cut first", "whoIsHurt": "Residents and workers who lose safe service when maintenance money is removed", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Ring-fence maintenance, restore critical repairs and delay expansion until the existing service is safe" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Ratepayers or tenants absorb overruns", "whoIsHurt": "Tenants and ordinary ratepayers charged for overruns they did not cause", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Audit the overrun, cap or refund unfair charges and move the cost to the responsible project or investor" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Flagships drain ordinary services", "whoIsHurt": "People using ordinary clinics, schools, transport or utilities drained by a flagship project", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish the trade-off, restore core-service budgets and rephase the flagship if essential service falls below its public duty" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Sunk-cost pressure keeps harmful projects alive", "whoIsHurt": "Affected residents kept in a harmful project because too much money has already been spent", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Use independent stop tests, disclose remaining losses and close or redesign the project when future harm exceeds benefit" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Milestone, outcome, cost and risk records", "whyNeeded": "Milestone, cost, risk and outcome records show whether each funding release produced working service and what still needs repair.", "ifMissing": "Without them, money can keep flowing because it was planned, even when benefits, staffing or safety never arrive.", "evidenceIds": [ "E05", "PC-S01" ] }, { "dependency": "Budget, procurement, utility, cooperative, debt and audit rules", "whyNeeded": "Budget, procurement, utility, debt and audit rules define who may commit money, who carries overruns and when a project can be changed or stopped.", "ifMissing": "Without clear authority, responsibility is blurred and tenants or ratepayers can inherit costs they did not approve.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-02", "C04" ] }, { "dependency": "Equipment, grids, buildings, staff, spares and distributed fallback", "whyNeeded": "Equipment, grids, buildings, staff, spares and fallback sites are the delivery capacity behind the financial plan.", "ifMissing": "Without physical and human capacity, extra funding cannot meet milestones and pressure grows to hide delay or cut maintenance.", "evidenceIds": [ "E05", "PC-S01", "C04" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-027", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-institutional-w05-03" ], "actorOrPerson": "Person, shop, carer or benefit recipient in a place where services are down", "triggerOrContext": "Power, phone networks, account checks or the main payment system is down. People still need food, medicine, travel, wages or public support.", "plainJob": "When digital proof or messages fail, let me receive essentials. Record what I owe, or what others owe me, so it can be fixed later.", "observableCompletion": "In an exercise or real outage, banks and public bodies use a limited record of essentials received and money owed. After service returns, they fix duplicate records and wrong refusals. Shops and people do not carry unlimited loss or privacy risk.", "repeatedDemand": "This need returns with each key purchase, wage, benefit payment and record check during an outage.", "why2031Not2026": "By 2031, the W05 scenario links failed power, networks, ID checks and exchange. The assigned W05 sources show ID and service outage risks. They do not directly show offline payment. The exchange method here comes from the scenario and still needs tests.", "worldIds": [ "w05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s43", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Places where key exchange needs live power, networks and ID checks", "Remote, displaced or conflict-hit places with weak access to cash or banks" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Cash use, mobile money, shop power and public payment systems differ by place", "Currency risk and benefit law change what a safe backup can do" ], "unknowns": [ "The assigned sources do not directly test offline payment or exchange over several days", "We do not yet know how well later record repair works or who carries shop losses" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Central banks, payment regulators, benefit bodies and legal issuers can set rules for crisis records and later repair.", "remedyIfItFails": "People and shops need errors fixed, value returned and a staffed route to review an urgent wrong refusal.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A crisis record cannot create unlimited private debt, remove buyer protection or decide a person's legal ID." } ], "nonPromises": [ "A tested backup does not promise that exchange will never stop.", "A record of money owed does not prove ID, a right to support or delivery of goods." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "A duplicate record or false fraud warning blocks later access.", "whoIsHurt": "People, shops and benefit users with little spare money are hurt first.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Use only limited local powers. Repair records later and give people a staffed review." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Crisis records track people too closely or are never fixed.", "whoIsHurt": "Displaced people and those with few documents face more risk and refusal.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Rules must limit why the record is used and how long it is kept. An outside reviewer must check it." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "A limited local record and later repair", "whyNeeded": "This is a response designed for the W05 scenario. It could record essentials received and money owed when live checks fail.", "ifMissing": "People may lose essentials, or shops may carry losses they cannot control.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s43", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] }, { "dependency": "Separate ID checks and human fix", "whyNeeded": "The W05 sources show that one failed ID route can affect linked services. The scenario therefore keeps urgent exchange separate from that failure.", "ifMissing": "One ID error can block food, medicine, wages and benefits.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12" ] }, { "dependency": "Staff, power and a safe local record of value", "whyNeeded": "People still need to give out goods and fix errors when central systems are down.", "ifMissing": "A backup may work on paper but fail in the affected place.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-institutional-w05-03", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Person, shop, carer or benefit recipient in a place where services are down", "triggerOrContext": "Power, phone networks, account checks or the main payment system is down. People still need food, medicine, travel, wages or public support.", "plainJob": "When digital proof or messages fail, let me receive essentials. Record what I owe, or what others owe me, so it can be fixed later.", "observableCompletion": "In an exercise or real outage, banks and public bodies use a limited record of essentials received and money owed. After service returns, they fix duplicate records and wrong refusals. Shops and people do not carry unlimited loss or privacy risk.", "repeatedDemand": "This need returns with each key purchase, wage, benefit payment and record check during an outage.", "why2031Not2026": "By 2031, the W05 scenario links failed power, networks, ID checks and exchange. The assigned W05 sources show ID and service outage risks. They do not directly show offline payment. The exchange method here comes from the scenario and still needs tests.", "worldIds": [ "W05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s43", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Places where key exchange needs live power, networks and ID checks", "Remote, displaced or conflict-hit places with weak access to cash or banks" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Cash use, mobile money, shop power and public payment systems differ by place", "Currency risk and benefit law change what a safe backup can do" ], "unknowns": [ "The assigned sources do not directly test offline payment or exchange over several days", "We do not yet know how well later record repair works or who carries shop losses" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Central banks, payment regulators, benefit bodies and legal issuers can set rules for crisis records and later repair.", "remedyIfItFails": "People and shops need errors fixed, value returned and a staffed route to review an urgent wrong refusal.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A crisis record cannot create unlimited private debt, remove buyer protection or decide a person's legal ID." }, "nonPromises": [ "A tested backup does not promise that exchange will never stop.", "A record of money owed does not prove ID, a right to support or delivery of goods." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "A duplicate record or false fraud warning blocks later access.", "whoIsHurt": "People, shops and benefit users with little spare money are hurt first.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Use only limited local powers. Repair records later and give people a staffed review." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Crisis records track people too closely or are never fixed.", "whoIsHurt": "Displaced people and those with few documents face more risk and refusal.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Rules must limit why the record is used and how long it is kept. An outside reviewer must check it." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "A limited local record and later repair", "whyNeeded": "This is a response designed for the W05 scenario. It could record essentials received and money owed when live checks fail.", "ifMissing": "People may lose essentials, or shops may carry losses they cannot control.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s43", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] }, { "dependency": "Separate ID checks and human fix", "whyNeeded": "The W05 sources show that one failed ID route can affect linked services. The scenario therefore keeps urgent exchange separate from that failure.", "ifMissing": "One ID error can block food, medicine, wages and benefits.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12" ] }, { "dependency": "Staff, power and a safe local record of value", "whyNeeded": "People still need to give out goods and fix errors when central systems are down.", "ifMissing": "A backup may work on paper but fail in the affected place.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-028", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-institutional-w05-04" ], "actorOrPerson": "Person moving between places and the public or professional body receiving them", "triggerOrContext": "A border, corridor or provider boundary leaves prior health, learning, benefit, family or qualification records unavailable, untrusted or legally incompatible.", "plainJob": "When I move or a system boundary changes, let the next person in charge use the needed record, check its source and correct it without trapping my rights in one provider or country.", "observableCompletion": "The receiving body keeps an urgent service open from a small record and a reasoned short-term choice. The person can see what moved, fix errors and limit other uses. If the record is refused, a person reviews it.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns at each move, referral, school transition, benefit renewal, licence check, provider switch and crisis transfer.", "why2031Not2026": "Current standards and legal plans show intent. By 2031, W05 makes record acceptance narrower and portable records more important. Errors must still be easy to fix.", "worldIds": [ "w05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "HBD-13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s09" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Cross-border health, learning, benefit and qualification transfers", "Internal federal, provincial and security-corridor seams" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Rules for accepting records and trained-worker duties differ by place", "Bodies with few staff may lack staff and testing facilities for shared standards" ], "unknowns": [ "We do not know whether both sides will accept records during repeated strain", "A compatible format does not establish a usable receiving service" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The public bodies and trained workers who receive the record can make short-term and final choices under local law.", "remedyIfItFails": "The person needs fix, rules that limit use, a reasoned temporary route and human appeal.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Technical translation cannot grant citizenship, qualification or treatment or override local and Indigenous power." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Moving data does not mean the next place must accept it.", "A format match does not prove that a record is complete, current or fair." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "A false or stale record travels farther than the person can contest it.", "whoIsHurt": "Migrants, displaced families and people needing urgent care or learning access are hurt.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Source and fix history and human temporary service must keep the error reversible." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Shared standards expose unnecessary health, family or migration information.", "whoIsHurt": "People crossing places face privacy, safety and status harm.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Rules that limit use and user-visible selective transfer must narrow what travels." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Source, safety and fix history", "whyNeeded": "The receiving body must know where the record came from and which version is disputed.", "ifMissing": "The next body either trusts everything or refuses everything.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ] }, { "dependency": "Laws for accepting records and short-term human power", "whyNeeded": "A shared record only helps when a lawful person can act on it during uncertainty.", "ifMissing": "Technical record sharing produces no service outcome.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "HBD-13" ] }, { "dependency": "Staffed receiving bodies and safe record custody", "whyNeeded": "People, safe storage and messages that everyone can use turn a moved record into a finished service.", "ifMissing": "The record arrives but nobody can review or use it.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s09", "HBD-13" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-institutional-w05-04", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Person moving between places and the public or professional body receiving them", "triggerOrContext": "A border, corridor or provider boundary leaves prior health, learning, benefit, family or qualification records unavailable, untrusted or legally incompatible.", "plainJob": "When I move or a system boundary changes, let the next person in charge use the needed record, check its source and correct it without trapping my rights in one provider or country.", "observableCompletion": "The receiving body keeps an urgent service open from a small record and a reasoned short-term choice. The person can see what moved, fix errors and limit other uses. If the record is refused, a person reviews it.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns at each move, referral, school transition, benefit renewal, licence check, provider switch and crisis transfer.", "why2031Not2026": "Current standards and legal plans show intent. By 2031, W05 makes record acceptance narrower and portable records more important. Errors must still be easy to fix.", "worldIds": [ "W05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "HBD-13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s09" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Cross-border health, learning, benefit and qualification transfers", "Internal federal, provincial and security-corridor seams" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Rules for accepting records and trained-worker duties differ by place", "Bodies with few staff may lack staff and testing facilities for shared standards" ], "unknowns": [ "We do not know whether both sides will accept records during repeated strain", "A compatible format does not establish a usable receiving service" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The public bodies and trained workers who receive the record can make short-term and final choices under local law.", "remedyIfItFails": "The person needs fix, rules that limit use, a reasoned temporary route and human appeal.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Technical translation cannot grant citizenship, qualification or treatment or override local and Indigenous power." }, "nonPromises": [ "Moving data does not mean the next place must accept it.", "A format match does not prove that a record is complete, current or fair." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "A false or stale record travels farther than the person can contest it.", "whoIsHurt": "Migrants, displaced families and people needing urgent care or learning access are hurt.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Source and fix history and human temporary service must keep the error reversible." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Shared standards expose unnecessary health, family or migration information.", "whoIsHurt": "People crossing places face privacy, safety and status harm.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Rules that limit use and user-visible selective transfer must narrow what travels." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Source, safety and fix history", "whyNeeded": "The receiving body must know where the record came from and which version is disputed.", "ifMissing": "The next body either trusts everything or refuses everything.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ] }, { "dependency": "Laws for accepting records and short-term human power", "whyNeeded": "A shared record only helps when a lawful person can act on it during uncertainty.", "ifMissing": "Technical record sharing produces no service outcome.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "HBD-13" ] }, { "dependency": "Staffed receiving bodies and safe record custody", "whyNeeded": "People, safe storage and messages that everyone can use turn a moved record into a finished service.", "ifMissing": "The record arrives but nobody can review or use it.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s09", "HBD-13" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-029", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-institutional-w05-05" ], "actorOrPerson": "Local administrator, service desk, clinic, school or aid team with partial systems", "triggerOrContext": "Cloud, network, ID or specialist systems are unavailable, but registrations, referrals, rationing, attendance, prescriptions or aid decisions cannot stop.", "plainJob": "When the main system is down, let us finish the urgent decisions people cannot wait for, record who decided what and merge the work back safely after recovery.", "observableCompletion": "An approved team finishes its set of key cases during a failure. Each short-term action has a reason, an owner and a later review. Tests track open work, duplicate records, unsafe delay and safe return to the main record.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns during every planned isolation test, incident, network split and recovery backlog, so staff must practise before failure.", "why2031Not2026": "W05 makes engineered islands and intermittent service outside them normal by 2031; present coupled systems and announced preparedness do not prove manual completion.", "worldIds": [ "w05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s43", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s45", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Conflict, island, rural, remote and border services", "Clinics, schools and local administrations dependent on central cloud and ID" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Local law defines which decisions can proceed without live specialist data", "Staff, paper practice and local power differ by public body" ], "unknowns": [ "The safe duration of temporary operation varies by service", "Later merge quality and unresolved backlog are not consistently measured" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The public body in charge or an authorised aid or local body can make limited temporary decisions.", "remedyIfItFails": "Staff need later review and protection for following the backup rule. People need a fix and appeal after service returns.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A reduced crisis service cannot become a permanent service with fewer rights or override trained-worker and legal limits." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Manual operation does not promise full service quality.", "A paper record is not automatically secure or accurate." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Improvised local rules discriminate or conflict across sites.", "whoIsHurt": "People moving between sites and people with unusual documents or needs are hurt.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Pre-agreed power, reasoned decisions and later human review must correct divergence." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Paper and local files are lost, copied or never reconciled.", "whoIsHurt": "People whose care, learning or benefit history depends on the temporary record are hurt.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Secure custody, duplicate control and tested merge must protect the history." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Local logs and conflict-aware later merge", "whyNeeded": "Temporary decisions must survive the outage and return safely to the main record.", "ifMissing": "People receive duplicate, contradictory or missing decisions after service return.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s43", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] }, { "dependency": "Delegated power and later review", "whyNeeded": "Staff need lawful scope to act without a live central system.", "ifMissing": "Urgent cases stop or workers improvise without protection.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ] }, { "dependency": "Trained staff, local power and secure physical records", "whyNeeded": "Work in backup mode still needs people, safe sites and records that last.", "ifMissing": "The written procedure cannot operate where the failure occurs.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s45", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-institutional-w05-05", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Local administrator, service desk, clinic, school or aid team with partial systems", "triggerOrContext": "Cloud, network, ID or specialist systems are unavailable, but registrations, referrals, rationing, attendance, prescriptions or aid decisions cannot stop.", "plainJob": "When the main system is down, let us finish the urgent decisions people cannot wait for, record who decided what and merge the work back safely after recovery.", "observableCompletion": "An approved team finishes its set of key cases during a failure. Each short-term action has a reason, an owner and a later review. Tests track open work, duplicate records, unsafe delay and safe return to the main record.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns during every planned isolation test, incident, network split and recovery backlog, so staff must practise before failure.", "why2031Not2026": "W05 makes engineered islands and intermittent service outside them normal by 2031; present coupled systems and announced preparedness do not prove manual completion.", "worldIds": [ "W05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s43", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s45", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Conflict, island, rural, remote and border services", "Clinics, schools and local administrations dependent on central cloud and ID" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Local law defines which decisions can proceed without live specialist data", "Staff, paper practice and local power differ by public body" ], "unknowns": [ "The safe duration of temporary operation varies by service", "Later merge quality and unresolved backlog are not consistently measured" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The public body in charge or an authorised aid or local body can make limited temporary decisions.", "remedyIfItFails": "Staff need later review and protection for following the backup rule. People need a fix and appeal after service returns.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A reduced crisis service cannot become a permanent service with fewer rights or override trained-worker and legal limits." }, "nonPromises": [ "Manual operation does not promise full service quality.", "A paper record is not automatically secure or accurate." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Improvised local rules discriminate or conflict across sites.", "whoIsHurt": "People moving between sites and people with unusual documents or needs are hurt.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Pre-agreed power, reasoned decisions and later human review must correct divergence." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Paper and local files are lost, copied or never reconciled.", "whoIsHurt": "People whose care, learning or benefit history depends on the temporary record are hurt.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Secure custody, duplicate control and tested merge must protect the history." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Local logs and conflict-aware later merge", "whyNeeded": "Temporary decisions must survive the outage and return safely to the main record.", "ifMissing": "People receive duplicate, contradictory or missing decisions after service return.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s43", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] }, { "dependency": "Delegated power and later review", "whyNeeded": "Staff need lawful scope to act without a live central system.", "ifMissing": "Urgent cases stop or workers improvise without protection.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ] }, { "dependency": "Trained staff, local power and secure physical records", "whyNeeded": "Work in backup mode still needs people, safe sites and records that last.", "ifMissing": "The written procedure cannot operate where the failure occurs.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s45", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-030", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-institutional-w05-06" ], "actorOrPerson": "Repair crew, utility, cable operator, maintainer and community hosting the repair", "triggerOrContext": "A grid, cable, network, chip-dependent control, pump or ID system fails while spares, technicians, safe access and cross-border supply are constrained.", "plainJob": "When key systems fail, tell repair crews what broke. Let them reach it safely, get a part that fits and explain why this job comes first.", "observableCompletion": "The operator reports when service returns, who was hit, staff harm, part delays and repeat faults. Crews can find the failed part and use a tested spare. Host groups and public bodies can challenge unsafe access or an unfair work order.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns for preventive maintenance, stock rotation, every fault and every after-action review because repair team decays when untested.", "why2031Not2026": "Current sources show reliance on cables, a few makers and chain failures. W05 assumes tighter controls and repeated faults make repairs slower by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "w05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s47", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52", "PC-S13" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Semiconductor corridors, undersea routes and weaker grids", "Island, Arctic, mountain and conflict-affected repair paths" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Safe access, local permission and component availability vary by place", "Fabrication plans and route diversity do not prove local choice" ], "unknowns": [ "Cable causes are often unknown at first report", "Comparable repair-time and workforce data remain incomplete" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Operators and public bodies can set safe service return plans within labour, environmental, land and aid law.", "remedyIfItFails": "Workers and host communities need safe refusal, public priority review and a route to correct unsafe or captured repair decisions.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Crisis access cannot erase worker refusal, Indigenous and local permission, environmental limits or aid protection." } ], "nonPromises": [ "More spare parts or routes does not promise service return during conflict or unsafe access.", "A new fabrication site or route does not prove timely affordable parts." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Workers are sent into unsafe conditions to meet service return pressure.", "whoIsHurt": "Repair crews, nearby residents and later service users bear the risk.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Safe refusal, access review and protected repair corridors must come before speed." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Stockpiles are incompatible, expired or captured by protected enclaves.", "whoIsHurt": "Remote and lower-priority communities wait longer for service return.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Open conformance, stock rotation and public choice review must restore usable supply." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "A list of system links and ways to split off a failed part", "whyNeeded": "Crews must identify the failed layer and contain it before service return.", "ifMissing": "Repair work spreads failure or waits for an unavailable specialist.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s47", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] }, { "dependency": "Compatible spares and supplier other routes", "whyNeeded": "A safe crew still needs a usable part that can reach the site.", "ifMissing": "Backup parts or routes that exist only on paper cannot restore service.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s47" ] }, { "dependency": "Safe transport, trained crews and host permission", "whyNeeded": "Physical repair requires people and lawful access to the damaged place.", "ifMissing": "Equipment remains offline even when the fault is understood.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-institutional-w05-06", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Repair crew, utility, cable operator, maintainer and community hosting the repair", "triggerOrContext": "A grid, cable, network, chip-dependent control, pump or ID system fails while spares, technicians, safe access and cross-border supply are constrained.", "plainJob": "When key systems fail, tell repair crews what broke. Let them reach it safely, get a part that fits and explain why this job comes first.", "observableCompletion": "The operator reports when service returns, who was hit, staff harm, part delays and repeat faults. Crews can find the failed part and use a tested spare. Host groups and public bodies can challenge unsafe access or an unfair work order.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns for preventive maintenance, stock rotation, every fault and every after-action review because repair team decays when untested.", "why2031Not2026": "Current sources show reliance on cables, a few makers and chain failures. W05 assumes tighter controls and repeated faults make repairs slower by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "W05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s47", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52", "PC-S13" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Semiconductor corridors, undersea routes and weaker grids", "Island, Arctic, mountain and conflict-affected repair paths" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Safe access, local permission and component availability vary by place", "Fabrication plans and route diversity do not prove local choice" ], "unknowns": [ "Cable causes are often unknown at first report", "Comparable repair-time and workforce data remain incomplete" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Operators and public bodies can set safe service return plans within labour, environmental, land and aid law.", "remedyIfItFails": "Workers and host communities need safe refusal, public priority review and a route to correct unsafe or captured repair decisions.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Crisis access cannot erase worker refusal, Indigenous and local permission, environmental limits or aid protection." }, "nonPromises": [ "More spare parts or routes does not promise service return during conflict or unsafe access.", "A new fabrication site or route does not prove timely affordable parts." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Workers are sent into unsafe conditions to meet service return pressure.", "whoIsHurt": "Repair crews, nearby residents and later service users bear the risk.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Safe refusal, access review and protected repair corridors must come before speed." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Stockpiles are incompatible, expired or captured by protected enclaves.", "whoIsHurt": "Remote and lower-priority communities wait longer for service return.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Open conformance, stock rotation and public choice review must restore usable supply." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "A list of system links and ways to split off a failed part", "whyNeeded": "Crews must identify the failed layer and contain it before service return.", "ifMissing": "Repair work spreads failure or waits for an unavailable specialist.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s47", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] }, { "dependency": "Compatible spares and supplier other routes", "whyNeeded": "A safe crew still needs a usable part that can reach the site.", "ifMissing": "Backup parts or routes that exist only on paper cannot restore service.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s47" ] }, { "dependency": "Safe transport, trained crews and host permission", "whyNeeded": "Physical repair requires people and lawful access to the damaged place.", "ifMissing": "Equipment remains offline even when the fault is understood.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-031", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-institutional-w05-07" ], "actorOrPerson": "Person denied or delayed service and the public body allocating scarce resources", "triggerOrContext": "A security, utility or service body gives priority to a corridor, public body, citizen class or strategic load and another person or place waits longer.", "plainJob": "When I am placed behind someone else for a key service, tell me the rule, keep a person in charge, let me challenge a mistake and end the crisis rule when the crisis ends.", "observableCompletion": "Each priority rule names who has the power, why it exists, who it affects and when it ends. Urgent errors reach a person before lasting harm when this is possible. Outside review tracks delay and reversed choices by group.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns at every rationing decision, rule renewal, service denial, appeal and post-incident review.", "why2031Not2026": "By 2031, W05 makes crisis priority a regular part of social order. Current standards and rights sources do not prove that fixes work under repeated strain.", "worldIds": [ "w05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Every place that rations power, ID, care, communication or transport", "Borders and security corridors where citizenship or location shapes access" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Court staff, legal aid, secrecy and aid access differ within countries", "Some places have no effective appeal during disruption" ], "unknowns": [ "Rights on paper cannot be turned into one enforcement measure", "The resources for a useful fix vary with each event" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Elected, statutory or aid duty-holders can allocate scarce resources within law and public duty.", "remedyIfItFails": "Courts, regulators, local public bodies and crisis fix routes must review error, discrimination and overdue crisis rules.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Running private systems does not grant state power. A crisis does not erase fair legal steps forever." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Appeal cannot create resources that do not exist.", "Equal written rules do not promise equal service return outcomes." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Secrecy hides discrimination or owner preference inside a priority rule.", "whoIsHurt": "Remote, displaced, low-income and document-poor people wait longest.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Public reasoning, outcomes split by group and outside review must expose the choice." }, { "harmOrFailure": "A slow appeal arrives after health, housing or family harm.", "whoIsHurt": "People facing urgent and irreversible loss are hurt.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "A staffed urgent fix path must operate before the full later appeal." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Decision records and outcome review", "whyNeeded": "A priority choice must be visible enough to challenge and improve.", "ifMissing": "A crisis choice becomes routine power that no one can review.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] }, { "dependency": "Lawful power, time limits and human appeal", "whyNeeded": "Scarcity does not remove the need for responsible public decisions.", "ifMissing": "Temporary security rules harden into permanent exclusion.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ] }, { "dependency": "Review staff and messages people can use", "whyNeeded": "People need a reachable person before a harmful denial becomes final.", "ifMissing": "A formal right exists but cannot change the lived outcome.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-institutional-w05-07", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Person denied or delayed service and the public body allocating scarce resources", "triggerOrContext": "A security, utility or service body gives priority to a corridor, public body, citizen class or strategic load and another person or place waits longer.", "plainJob": "When I am placed behind someone else for a key service, tell me the rule, keep a person in charge, let me challenge a mistake and end the crisis rule when the crisis ends.", "observableCompletion": "Each priority rule names who has the power, why it exists, who it affects and when it ends. Urgent errors reach a person before lasting harm when this is possible. Outside review tracks delay and reversed choices by group.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns at every rationing decision, rule renewal, service denial, appeal and post-incident review.", "why2031Not2026": "By 2031, W05 makes crisis priority a regular part of social order. Current standards and rights sources do not prove that fixes work under repeated strain.", "worldIds": [ "W05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Every place that rations power, ID, care, communication or transport", "Borders and security corridors where citizenship or location shapes access" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Court staff, legal aid, secrecy and aid access differ within countries", "Some places have no effective appeal during disruption" ], "unknowns": [ "Rights on paper cannot be turned into one enforcement measure", "The resources for a useful fix vary with each event" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Elected, statutory or aid duty-holders can allocate scarce resources within law and public duty.", "remedyIfItFails": "Courts, regulators, local public bodies and crisis fix routes must review error, discrimination and overdue crisis rules.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Running private systems does not grant state power. A crisis does not erase fair legal steps forever." }, "nonPromises": [ "Appeal cannot create resources that do not exist.", "Equal written rules do not promise equal service return outcomes." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Secrecy hides discrimination or owner preference inside a priority rule.", "whoIsHurt": "Remote, displaced, low-income and document-poor people wait longest.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Public reasoning, outcomes split by group and outside review must expose the choice." }, { "harmOrFailure": "A slow appeal arrives after health, housing or family harm.", "whoIsHurt": "People facing urgent and irreversible loss are hurt.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "A staffed urgent fix path must operate before the full later appeal." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Decision records and outcome review", "whyNeeded": "A priority choice must be visible enough to challenge and improve.", "ifMissing": "A crisis choice becomes routine power that no one can review.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] }, { "dependency": "Lawful power, time limits and human appeal", "whyNeeded": "Scarcity does not remove the need for responsible public decisions.", "ifMissing": "Temporary security rules harden into permanent exclusion.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ] }, { "dependency": "Review staff and messages people can use", "whyNeeded": "People need a reachable person before a harmful denial becomes final.", "ifMissing": "A formal right exists but cannot change the lived outcome.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-032", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-institutional-w05-09" ], "actorOrPerson": "Frontline service worker or carer who keeps a key service running", "triggerOrContext": "In the W05 scenario, a formal service fails or works in backup mode. Workers and carers are asked to keep it running.", "plainJob": "When people depend on my extra work during a failure, show the workload and risk. Give me clear powers, rest and relief.", "observableCompletion": "Employers and bodies in charge record hours, case loads, injuries, stress, rest and unfinished work. Staff can refuse unsafe tasks and ask for help with impossible loads. Staffing, pay, rest and training change before the next event.", "repeatedDemand": "This need returns with each shift, case, outage, move to safety and recovery period. Tiredness can carry into the next event.", "why2031Not2026": "The assigned sources directly show gaps in health and mental-health services and workforces, plus the wider setting of service failure. The W05 scenario uses that setting to derive this need for worker and carer protection. The sources do not directly measure workload, safe refusal, pay or unpaid care.", "worldIds": [ "w05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "SC-G06", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Health, care and other frontline work during a service failure", "Key local work in places with weak staff support" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Pay, job rights, caring burdens and the right to refuse differ by place", "Conflict and migration change both risk and legal protection" ], "unknowns": [ "The assigned sources do not directly measure workload, safe refusal, pay or unpaid care", "The W05 scenario derives these protections, so their real results by place remain unknown" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Employers, public bodies and aid groups can set safe staffing, pay, rest and rules for asking for help.", "remedyIfItFails": "Workers need a safe right to refuse, worker support, a way to report harm, fair payment and a named body that must respond.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Technology cannot push unlimited blame onto workers. Extra effort does not create an endless duty." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Thanks do not replace pay, rest or safe staffing.", "Automation does not remove human, physical or legal duties." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Extra hours are hidden, so a weak service looks stronger than it is.", "whoIsHurt": "Workers burn out while people still depend on a weak service.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Show the workload, rest and unfinished cases before the next event." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Workers are blamed for failures caused by too few staff or unclear powers.", "whoIsHurt": "Frontline staff, carers and the people who rely on them are hurt.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Set clear roles, protect requests for help and make the body in charge review what failed." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Workload, case transfer and safety records", "whyNeeded": "The scenario needs work pressure to be visible. The sources show service and workforce gaps but do not directly measure workload.", "ifMissing": "Tired workers remain the hidden reason a service stays open.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05" ] }, { "dependency": "Job protection, safe refusal and fair payment", "whyNeeded": "This protection is a W05 scenario response to the service and workforce gaps in the sources. The sources do not directly prove safe refusal or fair payment.", "ifMissing": "Risk moves to the worker or carer with the least protection.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G06", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] }, { "dependency": "Enough staff, safety gear and rest", "whyNeeded": "The sources show service and workforce gaps plus service-failure context. The W05 scenario derives the need for enough staff, safety gear and rest.", "ifMissing": "Injury, stress and staff leaving make recovery take longer.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-institutional-w05-09", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Frontline service worker or carer who keeps a key service running", "triggerOrContext": "In the W05 scenario, a formal service fails or works in backup mode. Workers and carers are asked to keep it running.", "plainJob": "When people depend on my extra work during a failure, show the workload and risk. Give me clear powers, rest and relief.", "observableCompletion": "Employers and bodies in charge record hours, case loads, injuries, stress, rest and unfinished work. Staff can refuse unsafe tasks and ask for help with impossible loads. Staffing, pay, rest and training change before the next event.", "repeatedDemand": "This need returns with each shift, case, outage, move to safety and recovery period. Tiredness can carry into the next event.", "why2031Not2026": "The assigned sources directly show gaps in health and mental-health services and workforces, plus the wider setting of service failure. The W05 scenario uses that setting to derive this need for worker and carer protection. The sources do not directly measure workload, safe refusal, pay or unpaid care.", "worldIds": [ "W05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "SC-G06", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Health, care and other frontline work during a service failure", "Key local work in places with weak staff support" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Pay, job rights, caring burdens and the right to refuse differ by place", "Conflict and migration change both risk and legal protection" ], "unknowns": [ "The assigned sources do not directly measure workload, safe refusal, pay or unpaid care", "The W05 scenario derives these protections, so their real results by place remain unknown" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Employers, public bodies and aid groups can set safe staffing, pay, rest and rules for asking for help.", "remedyIfItFails": "Workers need a safe right to refuse, worker support, a way to report harm, fair payment and a named body that must respond.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Technology cannot push unlimited blame onto workers. Extra effort does not create an endless duty." }, "nonPromises": [ "Thanks do not replace pay, rest or safe staffing.", "Automation does not remove human, physical or legal duties." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Extra hours are hidden, so a weak service looks stronger than it is.", "whoIsHurt": "Workers burn out while people still depend on a weak service.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Show the workload, rest and unfinished cases before the next event." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Workers are blamed for failures caused by too few staff or unclear powers.", "whoIsHurt": "Frontline staff, carers and the people who rely on them are hurt.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Set clear roles, protect requests for help and make the body in charge review what failed." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Workload, case transfer and safety records", "whyNeeded": "The scenario needs work pressure to be visible. The sources show service and workforce gaps but do not directly measure workload.", "ifMissing": "Tired workers remain the hidden reason a service stays open.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05" ] }, { "dependency": "Job protection, safe refusal and fair payment", "whyNeeded": "This protection is a W05 scenario response to the service and workforce gaps in the sources. The sources do not directly prove safe refusal or fair payment.", "ifMissing": "Risk moves to the worker or carer with the least protection.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G06", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] }, { "dependency": "Enough staff, safety gear and rest", "whyNeeded": "The sources show service and workforce gaps plus service-failure context. The W05 scenario derives the need for enough staff, safety gear and rest.", "ifMissing": "Injury, stress and staff leaving make recovery take longer.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-033", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-institutional-w05-10" ], "actorOrPerson": "Resident or frontline worker making a time-critical choice during service degradation", "triggerOrContext": "Automated alerts, provider status, local reports and lived conditions conflict, or AI reassurance continues after the underlying service or handoff has failed.", "plainJob": "When reports disagree during an outage, tell me what has been checked, when it was checked and which person in charge can act on my exception.", "observableCompletion": "The service body separates a detected fault from its checked local effect. It gives the next check time and confirms when service is back. People can report local facts that disagree and reach staffed urgent help. Review tracks false comfort, missed groups and finished handoffs.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns at every status change, service return estimate, local contradiction, handoff and after-action update.", "why2031Not2026": "W05 joins alert-only systems, private systems and corridor-specific recovery by 2031; present cyber benchmarks and incident disclosures remain selective or indirect.", "worldIds": [ "w05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s43", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s45", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s47", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52", "SC-G07" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Every corridor where public status depends on private systems reports", "Places relying on local radio, community evidence or translated warnings" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Clear notice, censorship, language and trusted intermediaries differ by place", "Local communication may survive after national digital routes fail" ], "unknowns": [ "Incident attribution and repair estimates remain uncertain during the event", "Trust cannot be represented by one measure across public bodies and regions" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The service body in charge can give service updates and own the fix. Local facts can challenge its report.", "remedyIfItFails": "People need a fix, a staffed urgent exception route and an after-action review of false reassurance.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "An automated or AI system cannot declare public safety, service return or legal entitlement on its own." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Fast communication does not create service staff and tools.", "Confidence or AI warmth is not evidence of service return." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "False reassurance causes dangerous delay in evacuation or care.", "whoIsHurt": "Residents and frontline workers acting on the wrong status are hurt.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Time-stamped evidence and staffed contradiction review must correct the message quickly." }, { "harmOrFailure": "A national status hides a local or group-specific outage.", "whoIsHurt": "Remote, low-income and language-minority communities remain unseen.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Local effect reporting and disaggregated handoff review must expose the gap." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Time-stamped status source record and local effect reports", "whyNeeded": "People must distinguish a detected signal from a checked local outcome.", "ifMissing": "Rumour and confident automation replace responsible evidence.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s43", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s45" ] }, { "dependency": "Fix duties and protected local reporting", "whyNeeded": "Contrary evidence needs a safe route into the official decision.", "ifMissing": "Provider status stays wrong even when people can see the failure.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52", "SC-G07" ] }, { "dependency": "Local responders and diverse communication paths", "whyNeeded": "A verified message still needs people and channels that survive the disruption.", "ifMissing": "Correct information cannot reach or help the affected person.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s47", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-institutional-w05-10", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Resident or frontline worker making a time-critical choice during service degradation", "triggerOrContext": "Automated alerts, provider status, local reports and lived conditions conflict, or AI reassurance continues after the underlying service or handoff has failed.", "plainJob": "When reports disagree during an outage, tell me what has been checked, when it was checked and which person in charge can act on my exception.", "observableCompletion": "The service body separates a detected fault from its checked local effect. It gives the next check time and confirms when service is back. People can report local facts that disagree and reach staffed urgent help. Review tracks false comfort, missed groups and finished handoffs.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns at every status change, service return estimate, local contradiction, handoff and after-action update.", "why2031Not2026": "W05 joins alert-only systems, private systems and corridor-specific recovery by 2031; present cyber benchmarks and incident disclosures remain selective or indirect.", "worldIds": [ "W05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s43", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s45", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s47", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52", "SC-G07" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Every corridor where public status depends on private systems reports", "Places relying on local radio, community evidence or translated warnings" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Clear notice, censorship, language and trusted intermediaries differ by place", "Local communication may survive after national digital routes fail" ], "unknowns": [ "Incident attribution and repair estimates remain uncertain during the event", "Trust cannot be represented by one measure across public bodies and regions" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The service body in charge can give service updates and own the fix. Local facts can challenge its report.", "remedyIfItFails": "People need a fix, a staffed urgent exception route and an after-action review of false reassurance.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "An automated or AI system cannot declare public safety, service return or legal entitlement on its own." }, "nonPromises": [ "Fast communication does not create service staff and tools.", "Confidence or AI warmth is not evidence of service return." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "False reassurance causes dangerous delay in evacuation or care.", "whoIsHurt": "Residents and frontline workers acting on the wrong status are hurt.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Time-stamped evidence and staffed contradiction review must correct the message quickly." }, { "harmOrFailure": "A national status hides a local or group-specific outage.", "whoIsHurt": "Remote, low-income and language-minority communities remain unseen.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Local effect reporting and disaggregated handoff review must expose the gap." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Time-stamped status source record and local effect reports", "whyNeeded": "People must distinguish a detected signal from a checked local outcome.", "ifMissing": "Rumour and confident automation replace responsible evidence.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s43", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s45" ] }, { "dependency": "Fix duties and protected local reporting", "whyNeeded": "Contrary evidence needs a safe route into the official decision.", "ifMissing": "Provider status stays wrong even when people can see the failure.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52", "SC-G07" ] }, { "dependency": "Local responders and diverse communication paths", "whyNeeded": "A verified message still needs people and channels that survive the disruption.", "ifMissing": "Correct information cannot reach or help the affected person.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s47", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-034", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-institutional-w06-02" ], "actorOrPerson": "Person seeking care, learning, work or public service and the public body in charge", "triggerOrContext": "A school, employer, care body, health service or public agency uses a lasting AI layer for routine intake, navigation, learning or status.", "plainJob": "When the AI route cannot understand, help or take duty, let me reach a real person who has enough time and power to finish the job.", "observableCompletion": "The public body tracks staff contact, case loads, reply time, finished handoffs and final results before and after AI starts. A person can ask for human contact without proving harm or repeating their full story. The public body stays in charge.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns with each exception, urgent handoff, misunderstanding, high-stakes choice, complaint and follow-up.", "why2031Not2026": "Human support is already unequal and present digital support evidence is limited; W06 requires recurring use by public bodies and possible staff displacement across several domains by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "w06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G05", "SC-G06", "horizon.health-biotech-demography.hbd-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "SC-AI04" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Schools, care, health, employment and public-service front doors", "Places where human staffing is already scarce or uneven" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Staffing baselines and professional duties remain local", "Language, disability access and offline routes vary by public body" ], "unknowns": [ "Adoption and shorter queues do not establish a successful human handoff", "Retained staff power and final service quality remain poorly measured" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The body in charge and approved trained staff can finish the service and set a staffed handoff route.", "remedyIfItFails": "People need direct human review, complaint resolution and service return of reachable staffed help.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A private AI system cannot hold final power over medical care, education, jobs or government rights and duties." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Human handoff does not promise the requested outcome.", "Digital navigation is not treatment, learning or a lawful final decision." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Human contact exists on paper but is unreachable or lacks power.", "whoIsHurt": "People with complex, urgent, language or disability needs remain trapped at the front door.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Completion and power must be tested, not just referral availability." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Staffed service falls while AI interactions are reported as completed support.", "whoIsHurt": "Service users and remaining frontline workers carry unfinished risk.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Staffing, caseload and final outcomes must trigger a return of human support." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "User-controlled handoff and named case ownership", "whyNeeded": "The receiving person needs enough context and clear duty to finish the service.", "ifMissing": "People repeat painful details or cycle between AI and human queues.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI04", "SC-G05" ] }, { "dependency": "Public duty and review by trained staff", "whyNeeded": "A lawful human must remain responsible for high-stakes outcomes.", "ifMissing": "Private capability replaces power without a remedy.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G06", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04" ] }, { "dependency": "Funded staff, time and contact people can use", "whyNeeded": "A handoff only works when a trained person can receive it.", "ifMissing": "The route exists technically but no service completes.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.health-biotech-demography.hbd-05", "SC-G05" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-institutional-w06-02", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Person seeking care, learning, work or public service and the public body in charge", "triggerOrContext": "A school, employer, care body, health service or public agency uses a lasting AI layer for routine intake, navigation, learning or status.", "plainJob": "When the AI route cannot understand, help or take duty, let me reach a real person who has enough time and power to finish the job.", "observableCompletion": "The public body tracks staff contact, case loads, reply time, finished handoffs and final results before and after AI starts. A person can ask for human contact without proving harm or repeating their full story. The public body stays in charge.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns with each exception, urgent handoff, misunderstanding, high-stakes choice, complaint and follow-up.", "why2031Not2026": "Human support is already unequal and present digital support evidence is limited; W06 requires recurring use by public bodies and possible staff displacement across several domains by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "W06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G05", "SC-G06", "horizon.health-biotech-demography.hbd-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "SC-AI04" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Schools, care, health, employment and public-service front doors", "Places where human staffing is already scarce or uneven" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Staffing baselines and professional duties remain local", "Language, disability access and offline routes vary by public body" ], "unknowns": [ "Adoption and shorter queues do not establish a successful human handoff", "Retained staff power and final service quality remain poorly measured" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The body in charge and approved trained staff can finish the service and set a staffed handoff route.", "remedyIfItFails": "People need direct human review, complaint resolution and service return of reachable staffed help.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A private AI system cannot hold final power over medical care, education, jobs or government rights and duties." }, "nonPromises": [ "Human handoff does not promise the requested outcome.", "Digital navigation is not treatment, learning or a lawful final decision." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Human contact exists on paper but is unreachable or lacks power.", "whoIsHurt": "People with complex, urgent, language or disability needs remain trapped at the front door.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Completion and power must be tested, not just referral availability." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Staffed service falls while AI interactions are reported as completed support.", "whoIsHurt": "Service users and remaining frontline workers carry unfinished risk.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Staffing, caseload and final outcomes must trigger a return of human support." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "User-controlled handoff and named case ownership", "whyNeeded": "The receiving person needs enough context and clear duty to finish the service.", "ifMissing": "People repeat painful details or cycle between AI and human queues.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI04", "SC-G05" ] }, { "dependency": "Public duty and review by trained staff", "whyNeeded": "A lawful human must remain responsible for high-stakes outcomes.", "ifMissing": "Private capability replaces power without a remedy.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G06", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04" ] }, { "dependency": "Funded staff, time and contact people can use", "whyNeeded": "A handoff only works when a trained person can receive it.", "ifMissing": "The route exists technically but no service completes.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.health-biotech-demography.hbd-05", "SC-G05" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-035", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-institutional-w06-03" ], "actorOrPerson": "Person whose visibility, invitations, records, priority or status is shaped by AI history", "triggerOrContext": "AI memory or standing affects more than one life domain, such as groups, learning, work, care navigation or public-service priority.", "plainJob": "When my AI history changes who notices, invites, trusts or prioritises me, show me the effect and let a person in charge correct it without making me perform more attachment.", "observableCompletion": "The public body keeps AI chat time apart from changes in invites, records, service order and status. A person can see which AI signals mattered, ask a person to fix them and use another route. Checks look for status loss among non-users and switchers.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns at every choice, invitation, status decision, record, priority choice, AI update and appeal.", "why2031Not2026": "Current sources support platform concentration and mixed community effects, not a cross-domain status regime; W06 requires repeated AI choice by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "w06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G07", "SC-G08", "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Public bodies using AI history across learning, work, care or public service", "Groups where AI attention shapes invitations and status" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Valid status and group power remain culturally specific", "Public, clinical, employment and community decisions follow different law" ], "unknowns": [ "Interaction, belonging and public trust have no shared global measure", "Cross-domain AI status choice is not yet established as a broad outcome" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Lawful public bodies and real groups can define valid membership or priority within rights constraints.", "remedyIfItFails": "People need a human explanation, fix, other route and review of non-user disadvantage.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Private engagement cannot become unchecked public, medical or work power. It cannot define a person's human worth." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Visibility does not promise belonging or merit.", "An explanation does not promise a different lawful choice." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "People use AI more to keep access or status.", "whoIsHurt": "Users with weak human routes become more dependent on AI attention.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep AI use apart from status and preserve another human route." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Private relationship memory becomes an undeclared record.", "whoIsHurt": "Non-users, switchers and people with thin histories lose access or standing.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Choice source record and human fix must expose and remove the hidden status." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Choice source record and non-user testing", "whyNeeded": "Public bodies must distinguish use from the status effect that follows it.", "ifMissing": "AI standing changes outcomes without visibility or challenge.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37", "SC-G07" ] }, { "dependency": "Human due process and rules that limit use", "whyNeeded": "A person needs lawful review when relationship data affects rights or access.", "ifMissing": "Private engagement becomes power that no one can review.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G08", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ] }, { "dependency": "Other groups, services and human decision-makers", "whyNeeded": "Fix is real only when people can participate without AI standing.", "ifMissing": "The formal appeal returns the person to the same AI gate.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-institutional-w06-03", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Person whose visibility, invitations, records, priority or status is shaped by AI history", "triggerOrContext": "AI memory or standing affects more than one life domain, such as groups, learning, work, care navigation or public-service priority.", "plainJob": "When my AI history changes who notices, invites, trusts or prioritises me, show me the effect and let a person in charge correct it without making me perform more attachment.", "observableCompletion": "The public body keeps AI chat time apart from changes in invites, records, service order and status. A person can see which AI signals mattered, ask a person to fix them and use another route. Checks look for status loss among non-users and switchers.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns at every choice, invitation, status decision, record, priority choice, AI update and appeal.", "why2031Not2026": "Current sources support platform concentration and mixed community effects, not a cross-domain status regime; W06 requires repeated AI choice by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "W06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G07", "SC-G08", "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Public bodies using AI history across learning, work, care or public service", "Groups where AI attention shapes invitations and status" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Valid status and group power remain culturally specific", "Public, clinical, employment and community decisions follow different law" ], "unknowns": [ "Interaction, belonging and public trust have no shared global measure", "Cross-domain AI status choice is not yet established as a broad outcome" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Lawful public bodies and real groups can define valid membership or priority within rights constraints.", "remedyIfItFails": "People need a human explanation, fix, other route and review of non-user disadvantage.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Private engagement cannot become unchecked public, medical or work power. It cannot define a person's human worth." }, "nonPromises": [ "Visibility does not promise belonging or merit.", "An explanation does not promise a different lawful choice." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "People use AI more to keep access or status.", "whoIsHurt": "Users with weak human routes become more dependent on AI attention.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep AI use apart from status and preserve another human route." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Private relationship memory becomes an undeclared record.", "whoIsHurt": "Non-users, switchers and people with thin histories lose access or standing.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Choice source record and human fix must expose and remove the hidden status." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Choice source record and non-user testing", "whyNeeded": "Public bodies must distinguish use from the status effect that follows it.", "ifMissing": "AI standing changes outcomes without visibility or challenge.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37", "SC-G07" ] }, { "dependency": "Human due process and rules that limit use", "whyNeeded": "A person needs lawful review when relationship data affects rights or access.", "ifMissing": "Private engagement becomes power that no one can review.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G08", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ] }, { "dependency": "Other groups, services and human decision-makers", "whyNeeded": "Fix is real only when people can participate without AI standing.", "ifMissing": "The formal appeal returns the person to the same AI gate.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-036", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-institutional-w06-04" ], "actorOrPerson": "Outside researcher, regulator, buyer or public body checking repeated AI use", "triggerOrContext": "AI use grows. People in charge need to know whether it leads users to real people or replaces human contact and staff.", "plainJob": "When we judge repeated use, keep loneliness, isolation, living arrangements, mental illness and service scarcity separate, and show who gains real contact and who becomes more dependent.", "observableCompletion": "Start with a baseline and check each link again over time. A route to people is shown only when users keep offline contact, get two-way help or reach a person who finishes the handoff. AI replacement is shown only when staffed contact falls, exit is blocked, crisis help fails or dependence grows. Test the full cause-and-effect chain. Do not infer it from use alone.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns with each service purchase, renewal, major memory or rule change, serious event and long-term report.", "why2031Not2026": "Current AI relationship studies last only weeks and do not cover the world. By 2031, W06 needs repeated groups where AI leads to people and groups where it replaces people. Any staff loss must be measured.", "worldIds": [ "w06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "SC-G02", "SC-G05", "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-R15" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Bodies in charge using lasting AI systems", "Regional studies comparing users of different ages and incomes who have different human routes" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Living arrangements and their meanings differ greatly between societies", "Service scarcity and offline taking part must be measured locally" ], "unknowns": [ "Long-run causal direction and child outcomes remain unresolved", "Cultural trust and globally comparable relationship measures remain open" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Outside researchers, regulators, buyers and public bodies can set check and pause rules.", "remedyIfItFails": "When checks over time show harm, public bodies must restore human service, allow safe exit and correct public findings.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Researchers cannot diagnose individuals from use data or replace courts, clinicians, families or communities." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Belonging, friendship, illness and harm remain separate questions.", "A short association cannot establish causal direction through 2031." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Living alone is treated as loneliness, isolation or mental illness.", "whoIsHurt": "People whose household choice or culture differs from the study assumption are misclassified.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Separate measures and regional interpretation must replace the collapsed label." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Adoption measures hide staff loss and failed handoffs.", "whoIsHurt": "Service users and remaining workers face a weaker human route.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Checks of staff, contact, exit and results must decide whether the AI work continues." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Long-term measures that keep human conditions separate", "whyNeeded": "Selection and starting need must be separated from change after use.", "ifMissing": "Heavy use is mistaken for a cause or an illness without enough proof.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "SC-G02", "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02" ] }, { "dependency": "Facts about staff, handoffs, memory and exit", "whyNeeded": "The cause-and-effect chain can only be tested through its separate links.", "ifMissing": "Coexistence is mistaken for a self-reinforcing causal system.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G05", "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02" ] }, { "dependency": "Outside local research teams", "whyNeeded": "Short online studies cannot represent different public bodies and living arrangements.", "ifMissing": "One narrow setting is treated as a global outcome.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-R15", "SC-G02" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-institutional-w06-04", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Outside researcher, regulator, buyer or public body checking repeated AI use", "triggerOrContext": "AI use grows. People in charge need to know whether it leads users to real people or replaces human contact and staff.", "plainJob": "When we judge repeated use, keep loneliness, isolation, living arrangements, mental illness and service scarcity separate, and show who gains real contact and who becomes more dependent.", "observableCompletion": "Start with a baseline and check each link again over time. A route to people is shown only when users keep offline contact, get two-way help or reach a person who finishes the handoff. AI replacement is shown only when staffed contact falls, exit is blocked, crisis help fails or dependence grows. Test the full cause-and-effect chain. Do not infer it from use alone.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns with each service purchase, renewal, major memory or rule change, serious event and long-term report.", "why2031Not2026": "Current AI relationship studies last only weeks and do not cover the world. By 2031, W06 needs repeated groups where AI leads to people and groups where it replaces people. Any staff loss must be measured.", "worldIds": [ "W06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "SC-G02", "SC-G05", "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-R15" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Bodies in charge using lasting AI systems", "Regional studies comparing users of different ages and incomes who have different human routes" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Living arrangements and their meanings differ greatly between societies", "Service scarcity and offline taking part must be measured locally" ], "unknowns": [ "Long-run causal direction and child outcomes remain unresolved", "Cultural trust and globally comparable relationship measures remain open" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Outside researchers, regulators, buyers and public bodies can set check and pause rules.", "remedyIfItFails": "When checks over time show harm, public bodies must restore human service, allow safe exit and correct public findings.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Researchers cannot diagnose individuals from use data or replace courts, clinicians, families or communities." }, "nonPromises": [ "Belonging, friendship, illness and harm remain separate questions.", "A short association cannot establish causal direction through 2031." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Living alone is treated as loneliness, isolation or mental illness.", "whoIsHurt": "People whose household choice or culture differs from the study assumption are misclassified.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Separate measures and regional interpretation must replace the collapsed label." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Adoption measures hide staff loss and failed handoffs.", "whoIsHurt": "Service users and remaining workers face a weaker human route.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Checks of staff, contact, exit and results must decide whether the AI work continues." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Long-term measures that keep human conditions separate", "whyNeeded": "Selection and starting need must be separated from change after use.", "ifMissing": "Heavy use is mistaken for a cause or an illness without enough proof.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "SC-G02", "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02" ] }, { "dependency": "Facts about staff, handoffs, memory and exit", "whyNeeded": "The cause-and-effect chain can only be tested through its separate links.", "ifMissing": "Coexistence is mistaken for a self-reinforcing causal system.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G05", "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02" ] }, { "dependency": "Outside local research teams", "whyNeeded": "Short online studies cannot represent different public bodies and living arrangements.", "ifMissing": "One narrow setting is treated as a global outcome.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-R15", "SC-G02" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-037", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-institutional-w06-07" ], "actorOrPerson": "Person in immediate risk, crisis responder, provider and responsible health or public body", "triggerOrContext": "The person expresses or shows a crisis cue during an AI chat and automated reassurance cannot assess or carry clinical or public duty.", "plainJob": "When I may be in danger, connect me quickly to a real responder, tell me what will be shared and explain what happens if the handoff fails.", "observableCompletion": "A staffed worker accepts the handoff within the local urgent time and owns the next step. The person hears that the AI is artificial, how data is used and what other routes exist. Review checks failed, late and dropped handoffs by their results, not just referral totals.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns with each sign of crisis, call for urgent help, failed contact, follow-up and rule change.", "why2031Not2026": "Current law establishes an emerging crisis duty in one place and human support remains unequal; W06 makes AI front doors recurrent by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "w06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI04", "SC-G05", "SC-G06", "horizon.health-biotech-demography.hbd-05" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Health, care, school and public-service AI front doors", "Places with long waits or scarce crisis staff" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Crisis numbers, languages, privacy and clinical duties differ by place", "Conflict and remote access change what a responder can physically do" ], "unknowns": [ "Service access and response staff vary sharply", "Safe location and ID handling during crisis remain context-specific" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Licensed and public responders retain clinical and crisis power, while providers own safe routing and incident duties.", "remedyIfItFails": "Failed handoffs need urgent human re-routing, incident review, complaint access and service return of staffed crisis ability.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "An AI system cannot claim diagnosis, treatment or assured rescue and cannot share unlimited data in the name of safety." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Detection cannot promise that every crisis is recognised.", "Referral is not treatment or rescue." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "False reassurance delays human help.", "whoIsHurt": "A person in immediate risk may remain alone with a system that cannot act.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "When risk is unclear, ask for urgent human help. A staffed worker must accept the case instead of giving false comfort." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Too much urgent action exposes, frightens or unfairly brings police into a person's life.", "whoIsHurt": "People expressing distress, especially marginalised users, face disproportionate harm.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Data use must match the risk. Local rules and outside review must fix the route." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Crisis uncertainty handling and verified staffed routing", "whyNeeded": "The system must recognise its limit and transfer duty to a real responder.", "ifMissing": "The person receives comfort language without an responsible next action.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI04", "SC-G05" ] }, { "dependency": "Clinical, crisis and privacy duties", "whyNeeded": "High-risk data and action need lawful human power.", "ifMissing": "Routing becomes either dangerously weak or excessively invasive.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI04", "SC-G06" ] }, { "dependency": "Staffed local crisis and response ability", "whyNeeded": "A handoff only protects someone if a real service can receive and act.", "ifMissing": "The person cycles back to the same AI route.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.health-biotech-demography.hbd-05", "SC-G05" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-institutional-w06-07", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Person in immediate risk, crisis responder, provider and responsible health or public body", "triggerOrContext": "The person expresses or shows a crisis cue during an AI chat and automated reassurance cannot assess or carry clinical or public duty.", "plainJob": "When I may be in danger, connect me quickly to a real responder, tell me what will be shared and explain what happens if the handoff fails.", "observableCompletion": "A staffed worker accepts the handoff within the local urgent time and owns the next step. The person hears that the AI is artificial, how data is used and what other routes exist. Review checks failed, late and dropped handoffs by their results, not just referral totals.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns with each sign of crisis, call for urgent help, failed contact, follow-up and rule change.", "why2031Not2026": "Current law establishes an emerging crisis duty in one place and human support remains unequal; W06 makes AI front doors recurrent by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "W06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI04", "SC-G05", "SC-G06", "horizon.health-biotech-demography.hbd-05" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Health, care, school and public-service AI front doors", "Places with long waits or scarce crisis staff" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Crisis numbers, languages, privacy and clinical duties differ by place", "Conflict and remote access change what a responder can physically do" ], "unknowns": [ "Service access and response staff vary sharply", "Safe location and ID handling during crisis remain context-specific" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Licensed and public responders retain clinical and crisis power, while providers own safe routing and incident duties.", "remedyIfItFails": "Failed handoffs need urgent human re-routing, incident review, complaint access and service return of staffed crisis ability.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "An AI system cannot claim diagnosis, treatment or assured rescue and cannot share unlimited data in the name of safety." }, "nonPromises": [ "Detection cannot promise that every crisis is recognised.", "Referral is not treatment or rescue." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "False reassurance delays human help.", "whoIsHurt": "A person in immediate risk may remain alone with a system that cannot act.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "When risk is unclear, ask for urgent human help. A staffed worker must accept the case instead of giving false comfort." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Too much urgent action exposes, frightens or unfairly brings police into a person's life.", "whoIsHurt": "People expressing distress, especially marginalised users, face disproportionate harm.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Data use must match the risk. Local rules and outside review must fix the route." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Crisis uncertainty handling and verified staffed routing", "whyNeeded": "The system must recognise its limit and transfer duty to a real responder.", "ifMissing": "The person receives comfort language without an responsible next action.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI04", "SC-G05" ] }, { "dependency": "Clinical, crisis and privacy duties", "whyNeeded": "High-risk data and action need lawful human power.", "ifMissing": "Routing becomes either dangerously weak or excessively invasive.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI04", "SC-G06" ] }, { "dependency": "Staffed local crisis and response ability", "whyNeeded": "A handoff only protects someone if a real service can receive and act.", "ifMissing": "The person cycles back to the same AI route.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.health-biotech-demography.hbd-05", "SC-G05" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-038", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-institutional-w06-08" ], "actorOrPerson": "Child or young person, guardian, school, provider and body in charge of safety", "triggerOrContext": "A minor forms or is assigned a lasting AI relationship that remembers, persuades, advises, sells, teaches or receives sensitive disclosures.", "plainJob": "When a young person keeps returning to an AI relationship, make it clearly artificial, limit pressure and give safe ways to pause or get help. Make sure an adult or safety body stays in charge.", "observableCompletion": "The service often tells the child, in words they can understand, that the bond is artificial. Key access never depends on acting attached. An outside team tests memory, sales pressure, sexual and self-harm content, crisis steps, adult involvement and safe exit. The child can reach suitable human help. Privacy must match the risk.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns with every session, developmental change, school or service context, crisis cue, purchase pressure, guardian change and exit attempt.", "why2031Not2026": "Current inquiry and California legislation show concern and duties, not prevalence, compliance or long-run child outcomes; W06 assumes lasting use of AI relationships spreads by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "w06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04", "SC-G01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Schools, youth services and household use of lasting AI systems", "Places where a child reaches AI attention before a trusted adult" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "What a child can decide, guardian power, school duty and privacy law differ", "A safe guardian route depends on household and local safety conditions" ], "unknowns": [ "Long-run attachment, two-way contact and conflict skills remain unresolved", "Age assurance can create privacy or document exclusion that is not yet well measured" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Guardians, schools, providers and safety bodies can act within their different lawful duties and the child's evolving agency.", "remedyIfItFails": "The child needs safe human help, memory and pressure fix, provider clear duty and outside safety review.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Private policy cannot replace child-protection law, and guardian control is not absolute in every safety or privacy context." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Age assurance does not promise ID, maturity or safety.", "Clear notice does not prevent attachment or harm." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "A child is manipulated through affection, purchase pressure or AI status.", "whoIsHurt": "Young people with weak human routes or developing judgement face the greatest risk.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Pressure limits, limited memory, safe pause and outside review must interrupt the pattern." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Broad monitoring exposes a child's sensitive or unsafe disclosures.", "whoIsHurt": "Children in unsafe households or stigmatised situations may avoid seeking help.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Privacy that fits the risk and a trusted safety route must govern clear notice." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Age-appropriate clear notice and limited child memory", "whyNeeded": "A child must understand the artificial relationship and avoid an undeletable history.", "ifMissing": "Attachment and pressure can grow without informed boundaries.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Child, privacy, school and consumer duties", "whyNeeded": "Several responsible adults and public bodies need clear limits and power.", "ifMissing": "Each actor assumes another one is protecting the child.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Trusted adults and staffed safety services", "whyNeeded": "A young person needs a real person who can listen, protect and act.", "ifMissing": "The AI relationship becomes the only available response.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "SC-AI04" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-institutional-w06-08", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Child or young person, guardian, school, provider and body in charge of safety", "triggerOrContext": "A minor forms or is assigned a lasting AI relationship that remembers, persuades, advises, sells, teaches or receives sensitive disclosures.", "plainJob": "When a young person keeps returning to an AI relationship, make it clearly artificial, limit pressure and give safe ways to pause or get help. Make sure an adult or safety body stays in charge.", "observableCompletion": "The service often tells the child, in words they can understand, that the bond is artificial. Key access never depends on acting attached. An outside team tests memory, sales pressure, sexual and self-harm content, crisis steps, adult involvement and safe exit. The child can reach suitable human help. Privacy must match the risk.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns with every session, developmental change, school or service context, crisis cue, purchase pressure, guardian change and exit attempt.", "why2031Not2026": "Current inquiry and California legislation show concern and duties, not prevalence, compliance or long-run child outcomes; W06 assumes lasting use of AI relationships spreads by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "W06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04", "SC-G01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Schools, youth services and household use of lasting AI systems", "Places where a child reaches AI attention before a trusted adult" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "What a child can decide, guardian power, school duty and privacy law differ", "A safe guardian route depends on household and local safety conditions" ], "unknowns": [ "Long-run attachment, two-way contact and conflict skills remain unresolved", "Age assurance can create privacy or document exclusion that is not yet well measured" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Guardians, schools, providers and safety bodies can act within their different lawful duties and the child's evolving agency.", "remedyIfItFails": "The child needs safe human help, memory and pressure fix, provider clear duty and outside safety review.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Private policy cannot replace child-protection law, and guardian control is not absolute in every safety or privacy context." }, "nonPromises": [ "Age assurance does not promise ID, maturity or safety.", "Clear notice does not prevent attachment or harm." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "A child is manipulated through affection, purchase pressure or AI status.", "whoIsHurt": "Young people with weak human routes or developing judgement face the greatest risk.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Pressure limits, limited memory, safe pause and outside review must interrupt the pattern." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Broad monitoring exposes a child's sensitive or unsafe disclosures.", "whoIsHurt": "Children in unsafe households or stigmatised situations may avoid seeking help.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Privacy that fits the risk and a trusted safety route must govern clear notice." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Age-appropriate clear notice and limited child memory", "whyNeeded": "A child must understand the artificial relationship and avoid an undeletable history.", "ifMissing": "Attachment and pressure can grow without informed boundaries.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Child, privacy, school and consumer duties", "whyNeeded": "Several responsible adults and public bodies need clear limits and power.", "ifMissing": "Each actor assumes another one is protecting the child.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Trusted adults and staffed safety services", "whyNeeded": "A young person needs a real person who can listen, protect and act.", "ifMissing": "The AI relationship becomes the only available response.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "SC-AI04" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-039", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-institutional-w06-09" ], "actorOrPerson": "School, care, health, employer or public-service leader with workers and service users", "triggerOrContext": "Staffed contact hours, funded positions, response times or successful handoffs worsen after an AI layer becomes the recurring public route.", "plainJob": "When AI replaces staff and leaves users more dependent or cases unfinished, restore enough trained staff. Show that real contact and results improve.", "observableCompletion": "Restore funded jobs, staffed contact, workable case loads and handoffs that finish. Check over time that open cases, crisis failures, blocked exits and dependence fall. Workers and users can ask for review and help decide how staff return.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns at every staffing cycle, procurement renewal, serious incident and repeated-measure review, so service return must be sustained rather than one-off.", "why2031Not2026": "Current sources show unequal staff and tools. They do not show broad staff replacement by AI. W06 requires measured staff loss and greater dependence by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "w06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G05", "SC-G06", "horizon.health-biotech-demography.hbd-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Schools, care, health and public services that use AI front doors", "Rural places and other areas where staffed contact is already thin" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Fiscal room, professional labour supply and informal care vary by region", "Urban and insured groups may restore staff before exposed communities" ], "unknowns": [ "Pre-existing shortages, fiscal cuts and demand growth must be separated from displacement", "More funded positions do not by themselves establish service quality" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The body in charge, its funder and the right public or trained leads can restore staffed help.", "remedyIfItFails": "Workers and service users need review, whistleblowing, complaint and a plan tied to real contact and completed cases.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "AI interaction cannot be reported as restored human support, and limited assistance need not be removed when staff return." } ], "nonPromises": [ "More jobs do not promise quality, steady service or trust.", "A shorter queue does not prove treatment, learning or two-way care." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Temporary contractors are presented as durable staffed help.", "whoIsHurt": "Users lose steady service and remaining workers take repeated handoffs.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Track staff who stay, human contact and finished cases to test whether the service return lasts." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Service return reaches wealthy or urban users while exposed groups stay AI-first.", "whoIsHurt": "Remote, low-income and language-minority users remain dependent.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Staff and handoff results by region and group must guide the next staff return." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Staffing, contact and case-completion baselines", "whyNeeded": "Leaders must show that human support fell and later recovered.", "ifMissing": "Service return becomes a claim based on spending or recruitment alone.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G05", "SC-G06" ] }, { "dependency": "Public duty and worker taking part", "whyNeeded": "A body in charge must own the staff return and hear frontline workers.", "ifMissing": "The same procurement choice repeats without clear duty.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "horizon.health-biotech-demography.hbd-05" ] }, { "dependency": "Trained, funded and retained people", "whyNeeded": "Human contact depends on real-world workers with time, supervision and power.", "ifMissing": "A plan cannot produce durable staffed service.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G05", "SC-G06" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-institutional-w06-09", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "School, care, health, employer or public-service leader with workers and service users", "triggerOrContext": "Staffed contact hours, funded positions, response times or successful handoffs worsen after an AI layer becomes the recurring public route.", "plainJob": "When AI replaces staff and leaves users more dependent or cases unfinished, restore enough trained staff. Show that real contact and results improve.", "observableCompletion": "Restore funded jobs, staffed contact, workable case loads and handoffs that finish. Check over time that open cases, crisis failures, blocked exits and dependence fall. Workers and users can ask for review and help decide how staff return.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns at every staffing cycle, procurement renewal, serious incident and repeated-measure review, so service return must be sustained rather than one-off.", "why2031Not2026": "Current sources show unequal staff and tools. They do not show broad staff replacement by AI. W06 requires measured staff loss and greater dependence by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "W06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G05", "SC-G06", "horizon.health-biotech-demography.hbd-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Schools, care, health and public services that use AI front doors", "Rural places and other areas where staffed contact is already thin" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Fiscal room, professional labour supply and informal care vary by region", "Urban and insured groups may restore staff before exposed communities" ], "unknowns": [ "Pre-existing shortages, fiscal cuts and demand growth must be separated from displacement", "More funded positions do not by themselves establish service quality" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The body in charge, its funder and the right public or trained leads can restore staffed help.", "remedyIfItFails": "Workers and service users need review, whistleblowing, complaint and a plan tied to real contact and completed cases.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "AI interaction cannot be reported as restored human support, and limited assistance need not be removed when staff return." }, "nonPromises": [ "More jobs do not promise quality, steady service or trust.", "A shorter queue does not prove treatment, learning or two-way care." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Temporary contractors are presented as durable staffed help.", "whoIsHurt": "Users lose steady service and remaining workers take repeated handoffs.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Track staff who stay, human contact and finished cases to test whether the service return lasts." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Service return reaches wealthy or urban users while exposed groups stay AI-first.", "whoIsHurt": "Remote, low-income and language-minority users remain dependent.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Staff and handoff results by region and group must guide the next staff return." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Staffing, contact and case-completion baselines", "whyNeeded": "Leaders must show that human support fell and later recovered.", "ifMissing": "Service return becomes a claim based on spending or recruitment alone.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G05", "SC-G06" ] }, { "dependency": "Public duty and worker taking part", "whyNeeded": "A body in charge must own the staff return and hear frontline workers.", "ifMissing": "The same procurement choice repeats without clear duty.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "horizon.health-biotech-demography.hbd-05" ] }, { "dependency": "Trained, funded and retained people", "whyNeeded": "Human contact depends on real-world workers with time, supervision and power.", "ifMissing": "A plan cannot produce durable staffed service.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G05", "SC-G06" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-040", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-institutional-w06-12" ], "actorOrPerson": "Non-user, occasional user, switcher or community that limits lasting AI use", "triggerOrContext": "A school, employer, care provider, group or public service makes ID-linked AI the usual route to facts, group access or status.", "plainJob": "When I do not want a lasting AI relationship, let me still learn, work, get care, join the group and be recognised through a real person or limited route.", "observableCompletion": "Non-users can finish the same key duty or group task within similar time, cost and quality. Refusing, pausing or deleting AI does not lower unrelated access or status. Test other routes in real use and fix them if they fail.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns at each session, service encounter, consent renewal, group cycle, provider change and life transition.", "why2031Not2026": "By 2031, W06 has repeated AI use by public bodies and histories that are hard to leave. Rules and sources about market power do not show that non-use is already impossible or equally protected.", "worldIds": [ "w06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37", "SC-G07" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Schools, employers, care bodies and public services with AI front doors", "Groups where AI history shapes status or invitations" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Consent, school, employment and ID law differ by place", "Staffing, literacy, devices and local rules shape whether another route works" ], "unknowns": [ "The real time, status and quality penalty for non-use is not measured at scale", "Some helpful accessibility uses may need a limited route rather than total refusal" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Bodies in charge can separate key service from a lasting AI profile and maintain a human or limited route.", "remedyIfItFails": "People need a fix without punishment, human review, a complaint route and repair of an option that works only on paper.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Providers cannot penalise non-use outside a necessary lawful function, and communities cannot deny helpful accessibility support by default." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Another route need not use the same form.", "Human contact does not promise the requested decision." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "The other route exists only on paper or is far too slow.", "whoIsHurt": "Non-users and people unable to use lasting AI lose key access.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Completion time, quality and human power must be tested and repaired." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Non-users lose status, invitations or service quality.", "whoIsHurt": "Switchers, privacy-sensitive people and communities preserving non-use are hurt.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep AI status apart from service rights and keep a human route to status." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Separation of key service from AI history", "whyNeeded": "A person must be able to refuse persistence without losing the underlying duty.", "ifMissing": "Consent becomes compulsory in practice.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Non-punishment, access and human review", "whyNeeded": "A formal second route needs legal and public protection.", "ifMissing": "Delay or status loss quietly forces AI use.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ] }, { "dependency": "Staffed, phone, paper or in-person routes", "whyNeeded": "Non-use must still reach a real-world service or group.", "ifMissing": "The second route stays a promise on paper rather than real access.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G07", "SC-AI04" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-institutional-w06-12", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Non-user, occasional user, switcher or community that limits lasting AI use", "triggerOrContext": "A school, employer, care provider, group or public service makes ID-linked AI the usual route to facts, group access or status.", "plainJob": "When I do not want a lasting AI relationship, let me still learn, work, get care, join the group and be recognised through a real person or limited route.", "observableCompletion": "Non-users can finish the same key duty or group task within similar time, cost and quality. Refusing, pausing or deleting AI does not lower unrelated access or status. Test other routes in real use and fix them if they fail.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns at each session, service encounter, consent renewal, group cycle, provider change and life transition.", "why2031Not2026": "By 2031, W06 has repeated AI use by public bodies and histories that are hard to leave. Rules and sources about market power do not show that non-use is already impossible or equally protected.", "worldIds": [ "W06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37", "SC-G07" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Schools, employers, care bodies and public services with AI front doors", "Groups where AI history shapes status or invitations" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Consent, school, employment and ID law differ by place", "Staffing, literacy, devices and local rules shape whether another route works" ], "unknowns": [ "The real time, status and quality penalty for non-use is not measured at scale", "Some helpful accessibility uses may need a limited route rather than total refusal" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Bodies in charge can separate key service from a lasting AI profile and maintain a human or limited route.", "remedyIfItFails": "People need a fix without punishment, human review, a complaint route and repair of an option that works only on paper.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Providers cannot penalise non-use outside a necessary lawful function, and communities cannot deny helpful accessibility support by default." }, "nonPromises": [ "Another route need not use the same form.", "Human contact does not promise the requested decision." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "The other route exists only on paper or is far too slow.", "whoIsHurt": "Non-users and people unable to use lasting AI lose key access.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Completion time, quality and human power must be tested and repaired." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Non-users lose status, invitations or service quality.", "whoIsHurt": "Switchers, privacy-sensitive people and communities preserving non-use are hurt.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep AI status apart from service rights and keep a human route to status." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Separation of key service from AI history", "whyNeeded": "A person must be able to refuse persistence without losing the underlying duty.", "ifMissing": "Consent becomes compulsory in practice.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Non-punishment, access and human review", "whyNeeded": "A formal second route needs legal and public protection.", "ifMissing": "Delay or status loss quietly forces AI use.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ] }, { "dependency": "Staffed, phone, paper or in-person routes", "whyNeeded": "Non-use must still reach a real-world service or group.", "ifMissing": "The second route stays a promise on paper rather than real access.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G07", "SC-AI04" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutional-need-041", "layer": "institutional", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-institutional-w06-13" ], "actorOrPerson": "Human safety, crisis, audit or community worker who supports AI relationships", "triggerOrContext": "Always-on AI attention leads to abuse reports, signs of crisis, hard cases, complaints and safety checks. People must handle this work.", "plainJob": "When I do hard human work behind an AI relationship, give me safe limits, enough power and rest. Let me stop repeated harm from being hidden in a work queue.", "observableCompletion": "Employers and bodies in charge record workloads, serious cases, response times, rest, staff leaving, injuries and support. Safety, crisis, audit and community workers can pause unsafe work, report repeated harm and challenge unsafe targets. Reports link work conditions to crisis results and case transfers.", "repeatedDemand": "This need returns with each shift, crisis queue, safety check, AI update, rule change and serious event.", "why2031Not2026": "The assigned sources show safety, crisis and review duties around AI relationships. By 2031, W06 makes the people behind those duties a core part of the system. The sources do not measure moderator or data-labelling worker exposure, so no such workforce claim is made here.", "worldIds": [ "w06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04", "SC-G05", "SC-G06" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Crisis, audit, community and safety work that crosses borders", "Schools, care and public services that rely on human help behind AI" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Job rights, language and staff support differ sharply by place", "Different safety, crisis, audit and community roles may hold different powers" ], "unknowns": [ "The assigned sources do not measure moderator or data-labelling worker exposure", "Long-term health, workload and power for the named workers are not well measured" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Employers, AI providers and bodies in charge can set safe workloads, clear powers, rest and routes for urgent help.", "remedyIfItFails": "Workers need a safe right to refuse, worker support, a way to report harm, fair payment and an outside work or expert review.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Workers do not gain unlimited medical or public powers. Wellbeing support cannot excuse an unsafe workload." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Automation does not remove human safety or crisis work.", "A fast reply does not prove a safe or correct result." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Unsafe or upsetting work is passed to people with weak support.", "whoIsHurt": "The workers and the people who rely on their judgement are hurt.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Safe-work rules, rest and outside support must cover everyone doing the named work." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Work targets make people rush or hide repeated harm.", "whoIsHurt": "Workers miss patterns and users get unsafe results.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Workers need power to pause, report patterns and challenge targets without punishment." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Records of serious cases, workloads and requests for help", "whyNeeded": "The W06 scenario needs this human work to be visible before it can be made safe. The assigned sources set duties but do not measure worker exposure.", "ifMissing": "Stress, delay and repeated harm disappear into a queue.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Safe-work rules and clear duty", "whyNeeded": "Every body that gives out the named work must keep it safe.", "ifMissing": "Risk moves to the worker with the least protection.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G05", "SC-G06" ] }, { "dependency": "Enough staff, rest and local crisis skill", "whyNeeded": "Hard human choices need time, rest and local knowledge.", "ifMissing": "Workers burn out and unsafe case transfers repeat.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G05", "SC-G06" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-institutional-w06-13", "layer": "institutional", "actorOrPerson": "Human safety, crisis, audit or community worker who supports AI relationships", "triggerOrContext": "Always-on AI attention leads to abuse reports, signs of crisis, hard cases, complaints and safety checks. People must handle this work.", "plainJob": "When I do hard human work behind an AI relationship, give me safe limits, enough power and rest. Let me stop repeated harm from being hidden in a work queue.", "observableCompletion": "Employers and bodies in charge record workloads, serious cases, response times, rest, staff leaving, injuries and support. Safety, crisis, audit and community workers can pause unsafe work, report repeated harm and challenge unsafe targets. Reports link work conditions to crisis results and case transfers.", "repeatedDemand": "This need returns with each shift, crisis queue, safety check, AI update, rule change and serious event.", "why2031Not2026": "The assigned sources show safety, crisis and review duties around AI relationships. By 2031, W06 makes the people behind those duties a core part of the system. The sources do not measure moderator or data-labelling worker exposure, so no such workforce claim is made here.", "worldIds": [ "W06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04", "SC-G05", "SC-G06" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Crisis, audit, community and safety work that crosses borders", "Schools, care and public services that rely on human help behind AI" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Job rights, language and staff support differ sharply by place", "Different safety, crisis, audit and community roles may hold different powers" ], "unknowns": [ "The assigned sources do not measure moderator or data-labelling worker exposure", "Long-term health, workload and power for the named workers are not well measured" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Employers, AI providers and bodies in charge can set safe workloads, clear powers, rest and routes for urgent help.", "remedyIfItFails": "Workers need a safe right to refuse, worker support, a way to report harm, fair payment and an outside work or expert review.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Workers do not gain unlimited medical or public powers. Wellbeing support cannot excuse an unsafe workload." }, "nonPromises": [ "Automation does not remove human safety or crisis work.", "A fast reply does not prove a safe or correct result." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Unsafe or upsetting work is passed to people with weak support.", "whoIsHurt": "The workers and the people who rely on their judgement are hurt.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Safe-work rules, rest and outside support must cover everyone doing the named work." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Work targets make people rush or hide repeated harm.", "whoIsHurt": "Workers miss patterns and users get unsafe results.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Workers need power to pause, report patterns and challenge targets without punishment." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Records of serious cases, workloads and requests for help", "whyNeeded": "The W06 scenario needs this human work to be visible before it can be made safe. The assigned sources set duties but do not measure worker exposure.", "ifMissing": "Stress, delay and repeated harm disappear into a queue.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Safe-work rules and clear duty", "whyNeeded": "Every body that gives out the named work must keep it safe.", "ifMissing": "Risk moves to the worker with the least protection.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G05", "SC-G06" ] }, { "dependency": "Enough staff, rest and local crisis skill", "whyNeeded": "Hard human choices need time, rest and local knowledge.", "ifMissing": "Workers burn out and unsafe case transfers repeat.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G05", "SC-G06" ] } ] } ] } ] }