{ "schemaVersion": 1, "contractVersion": "dynamic-stage-c-synthesis-v1", "layer": "lived-experience", "reviewedWorldSetBinding": { "receiptArtifact": { "path": "research/rebuild/discontinuity-r2/stage-b-fresh/world-set-receipt.json", "bytes": 398, "sha256": "652bc1525aea95e7ae23d1fd78e169d59a5cef10b88abdb7503e3a923e281c30" }, "receiptSha256": "4f0c1e9ea0b9f6bd481362162a9a0e424e5b428380ba502175d8b8582d563f47", "orderedWorldIds": [ "W01", "W02", "W03", "W04", "W05", "W06" ] }, "needs": [ { "id": "lived-need-001", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-lived-03" ], "actorOrPerson": "School leavers, graduates, career changers, apprentices and junior workers", "triggerOrContext": "Machine help may remove or shrink first-draft tasks. Employers still need people who can review work, handle unusual cases, and answer for harm.", "plainJob": "Give me real paid work where I can practise, get feedback, prove what I can do and take on more responsibility.", "observableCompletion": "The learner completes real tasks with a skilled guide and gets recorded feedback. They show they can make sound choices with less help. They can move to the next level without an unpaid gate.", "repeatedDemand": "Each new cohort, role change and technology update creates another learning and progression cycle.", "why2031Not2026": "Job exposure is clear in 2026. A broad collapse in entry jobs has not been seen, and the effect on apprentices is not well measured. In W01, entry routes must change as machine help becomes normal.", "worldIds": [ "w01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "SC-WORK-01", "src-ilo-exposure-indicators-2026" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter wherever first-draft work shrinks but employers still need skilled reviewers. The assigned evidence does not show where paid entry routes will be rebuilt." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Pay rules, training routes, internet access, and access to skilled supervisors vary by job and place." ], "unknowns": [ "Which entry tasks teach judgement rather than busywork", "Whether employers will pay for supervised practice", "How experience outside formal jobs can gain recognition" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Employers, teachers, professional bodies, and workers agree what evidence shows progress. No machine judgement decides readiness by itself.", "remedyIfItFails": "The learner can inspect and correct the evidence, ask for a new human review, and carry verified learning to another employer or training body.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A paid learning route cannot promise a job for every learner." } ], "nonPromises": [ "A job for every learner", "Every old junior task should survive", "Tracking by itself produces learning" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Practice is unpaid", "whoIsHurt": "Learners who do useful beginner work without wages or worker rights", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Give the learner paid worker or apprentice status, recover unpaid wages, and let them report unsafe work." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Practice records become surveillance", "whoIsHurt": "Learners whose detailed behaviour is tracked far beyond what feedback needs", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Collect only the evidence needed for learning, let the learner inspect and correct it, and delete extra tracking." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Experts block entry unfairly", "whoIsHurt": "Learners without personal contacts, money, or a familiar background", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish clear skill criteria, use more than one reviewer, and provide a human appeal." }, { "harmOrFailure": "There is no path to the next level", "whoIsHurt": "Junior workers who finish training but receive no greater responsibility", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish the paid steps, record feedback from real tasks, and carry that evidence to the next employer or training body." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Accessible tools used in real work. Records of supervised practice that can move with the learner. Safe ways to correct evidence.", "whyNeeded": "The learner must practise in the assisted workflow and carry trustworthy evidence of growing judgement between stages.", "ifMissing": "Without usable records, learners repeat unpaid gates or are judged by hidden machine data.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "SC-WORK-01", "src-ilo-exposure-indicators-2026" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Paid worker or apprentice status. Wage and safety duties. Fair access, privacy, and appeal rights.", "whyNeeded": "The route is meant to be paid. It must not turn learning into unprotected labour or intrusive selection.", "ifMissing": "Without these rights, employers can take useful beginner work without pay, safety duties, fair selection, or remedy.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "SC-WORK-01", "src-ilo-exposure-indicators-2026" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Skilled supervisors, safe workplaces, time, and tools for real tasks.", "whyNeeded": "Judgement grows through supervised work where real consequences and unusual cases occur.", "ifMissing": "Without real practice, the route becomes a paper exercise and does not produce a safe, experienced worker.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "SC-WORK-01", "src-ilo-exposure-indicators-2026" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-lived-03", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "School leavers, graduates, career changers, apprentices and junior workers", "triggerOrContext": "Machine help may remove or shrink first-draft tasks. Employers still need people who can review work, handle unusual cases, and answer for harm.", "plainJob": "Give me real paid work where I can practise, get feedback, prove what I can do and take on more responsibility.", "observableCompletion": "The learner completes real tasks with a skilled guide and gets recorded feedback. They show they can make sound choices with less help. They can move to the next level without an unpaid gate.", "repeatedDemand": "Each new cohort, role change and technology update creates another learning and progression cycle.", "why2031Not2026": "Job exposure is clear in 2026. A broad collapse in entry jobs has not been seen, and the effect on apprentices is not well measured. In W01, entry routes must change as machine help becomes normal.", "worldIds": [ "W01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "SC-WORK-01", "src-ilo-exposure-indicators-2026" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter wherever first-draft work shrinks but employers still need skilled reviewers. The assigned evidence does not show where paid entry routes will be rebuilt." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Pay rules, training routes, internet access, and access to skilled supervisors vary by job and place." ], "unknowns": [ "Which entry tasks teach judgement rather than busywork", "Whether employers will pay for supervised practice", "How experience outside formal jobs can gain recognition" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Employers, teachers, professional bodies, and workers agree what evidence shows progress. No machine judgement decides readiness by itself.", "remedyIfItFails": "The learner can inspect and correct the evidence, ask for a new human review, and carry verified learning to another employer or training body.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A paid learning route cannot promise a job for every learner." }, "nonPromises": [ "A job for every learner", "Every old junior task should survive", "Tracking by itself produces learning" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Practice is unpaid", "whoIsHurt": "Learners who do useful beginner work without wages or worker rights", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Give the learner paid worker or apprentice status, recover unpaid wages, and let them report unsafe work." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Practice records become surveillance", "whoIsHurt": "Learners whose detailed behaviour is tracked far beyond what feedback needs", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Collect only the evidence needed for learning, let the learner inspect and correct it, and delete extra tracking." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Experts block entry unfairly", "whoIsHurt": "Learners without personal contacts, money, or a familiar background", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish clear skill criteria, use more than one reviewer, and provide a human appeal." }, { "harmOrFailure": "There is no path to the next level", "whoIsHurt": "Junior workers who finish training but receive no greater responsibility", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish the paid steps, record feedback from real tasks, and carry that evidence to the next employer or training body." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Accessible tools used in real work. Records of supervised practice that can move with the learner. Safe ways to correct evidence.", "whyNeeded": "The learner must practise in the assisted workflow and carry trustworthy evidence of growing judgement between stages.", "ifMissing": "Without usable records, learners repeat unpaid gates or are judged by hidden machine data.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "SC-WORK-01", "src-ilo-exposure-indicators-2026" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Paid worker or apprentice status. Wage and safety duties. Fair access, privacy, and appeal rights.", "whyNeeded": "The route is meant to be paid. It must not turn learning into unprotected labour or intrusive selection.", "ifMissing": "Without these rights, employers can take useful beginner work without pay, safety duties, fair selection, or remedy.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "SC-WORK-01", "src-ilo-exposure-indicators-2026" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Skilled supervisors, safe workplaces, time, and tools for real tasks.", "whyNeeded": "Judgement grows through supervised work where real consequences and unusual cases occur.", "ifMissing": "Without real practice, the route becomes a paper exercise and does not produce a safe, experienced worker.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "SC-WORK-01", "src-ilo-exposure-indicators-2026" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-002", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-lived-04" ], "actorOrPerson": "Employees, contractors and hidden reviewers whose performance is shaped or measured by machine systems", "triggerOrContext": "Employers retain people for review and legal blame but can use help to intensify targets, monitor behaviour or shift risk onto individuals.", "plainJob": "Let me understand how I am being watched, refuse an unsafe handoff of work, and raise a problem without losing income or being blamed for the machine.", "observableCompletion": "The worker can see tracking and target changes that affect the job, pause an unsafe task, record disagreement, reach an outside human reviewer, and receive a decision that does not rely only on the system being challenged.", "repeatedDemand": "Workload, tools, managers, targets and exceptions change continually.", "why2031Not2026": "Measures in 2026 show which jobs face change. They do not show the quality of real jobs or workers' power to bargain. In W01, supervised machine work becomes a daily part of work, so tracking and blame need clear limits.", "worldIds": [ "w01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "SC-WORK-01", "src-ilo-exposure-indicators-2026" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter wherever employers use machines to guide, track, or judge workers. The assigned evidence does not show which workers or places face the greatest risk." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Worker rights, union power, job status, and access to an outside appeal vary by job and legal area." ], "unknowns": [ "Whether machine help improves worker bargaining power or weakens it", "How to record hidden review and emotional work", "Whether a worker can really refuse under insecure work" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Employers may organise work within labour, safety, and privacy law. Workers and their representatives can challenge unsafe or unfair use.", "remedyIfItFails": "Provide a human complaint route and worker representation. Correct performance records and protect workers from punishment for speaking up.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "These protections cannot promise that paid work is always meaningful." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Paid work is always meaningful", "Every form of tracking is harmful", "A right to refuse removes every job risk" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Work pace becomes unsafe", "whoIsHurt": "Workers pushed to handle more tasks or exceptions than they can check safely", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Show workload and target changes, let workers pause unsafe work, and reduce targets after an independent review." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Emotional and review work stays hidden", "whoIsHurt": "Workers who calm users, fix machine errors, or review difficult cases without enough time or pay", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Record this work, include it in staffing and pay, and provide rest after distressing cases." }, { "harmOrFailure": "A machine triggers punishment after a complaint", "whoIsHurt": "Workers who raise a concern and then lose shifts, pay, or work through an automated process", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Block automatic punishment after a complaint, require a separate human review, and restore lost work when the complaint caused unfair treatment." }, { "harmOrFailure": "A worker is blamed without power to refuse", "whoIsHurt": "Workers held responsible for a machine-led action they could not inspect or stop", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Give workers real stop power and access to the record. Keep legal blame with the employer when control was missing." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Clear records of tracking and machine-led decisions that workers can see. A reliable pause control.", "whyNeeded": "Workers can challenge pace, tracking, or an unsafe handoff of work only if they can see how the machine shaped the task and can pause it.", "ifMissing": "Without visibility and a pause, workers cannot prove or stop unsafe use.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "SC-WORK-01", "src-ilo-exposure-indicators-2026" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Clear worker status. Safety and privacy duties. Protected complaints and protection from punishment for speaking up.", "whyNeeded": "A real right to refuse depends on protection from lost pay, dismissal, or punishment after a safety or fairness concern.", "ifMissing": "Without that protection, workers cannot use the pause or complaint route safely.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "SC-WORK-01", "src-ilo-exposure-indicators-2026" ] }, { "dependency": "No specific site or physical asset is required.", "whyNeeded": "This need is about information and power in both digital and hands-on workplaces. It does not depend on one kind of site.", "ifMissing": "Requiring a particular site would add a false barrier without improving worker control.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "SC-WORK-01", "src-ilo-exposure-indicators-2026" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-lived-04", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "Employees, contractors and hidden reviewers whose performance is shaped or measured by machine systems", "triggerOrContext": "Employers retain people for review and legal blame but can use help to intensify targets, monitor behaviour or shift risk onto individuals.", "plainJob": "Let me understand how I am being watched, refuse an unsafe handoff of work, and raise a problem without losing income or being blamed for the machine.", "observableCompletion": "The worker can see tracking and target changes that affect the job, pause an unsafe task, record disagreement, reach an outside human reviewer, and receive a decision that does not rely only on the system being challenged.", "repeatedDemand": "Workload, tools, managers, targets and exceptions change continually.", "why2031Not2026": "Measures in 2026 show which jobs face change. They do not show the quality of real jobs or workers' power to bargain. In W01, supervised machine work becomes a daily part of work, so tracking and blame need clear limits.", "worldIds": [ "W01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "SC-WORK-01", "src-ilo-exposure-indicators-2026" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter wherever employers use machines to guide, track, or judge workers. The assigned evidence does not show which workers or places face the greatest risk." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Worker rights, union power, job status, and access to an outside appeal vary by job and legal area." ], "unknowns": [ "Whether machine help improves worker bargaining power or weakens it", "How to record hidden review and emotional work", "Whether a worker can really refuse under insecure work" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Employers may organise work within labour, safety, and privacy law. Workers and their representatives can challenge unsafe or unfair use.", "remedyIfItFails": "Provide a human complaint route and worker representation. Correct performance records and protect workers from punishment for speaking up.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "These protections cannot promise that paid work is always meaningful." }, "nonPromises": [ "Paid work is always meaningful", "Every form of tracking is harmful", "A right to refuse removes every job risk" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Work pace becomes unsafe", "whoIsHurt": "Workers pushed to handle more tasks or exceptions than they can check safely", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Show workload and target changes, let workers pause unsafe work, and reduce targets after an independent review." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Emotional and review work stays hidden", "whoIsHurt": "Workers who calm users, fix machine errors, or review difficult cases without enough time or pay", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Record this work, include it in staffing and pay, and provide rest after distressing cases." }, { "harmOrFailure": "A machine triggers punishment after a complaint", "whoIsHurt": "Workers who raise a concern and then lose shifts, pay, or work through an automated process", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Block automatic punishment after a complaint, require a separate human review, and restore lost work when the complaint caused unfair treatment." }, { "harmOrFailure": "A worker is blamed without power to refuse", "whoIsHurt": "Workers held responsible for a machine-led action they could not inspect or stop", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Give workers real stop power and access to the record. Keep legal blame with the employer when control was missing." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Clear records of tracking and machine-led decisions that workers can see. A reliable pause control.", "whyNeeded": "Workers can challenge pace, tracking, or an unsafe handoff of work only if they can see how the machine shaped the task and can pause it.", "ifMissing": "Without visibility and a pause, workers cannot prove or stop unsafe use.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "SC-WORK-01", "src-ilo-exposure-indicators-2026" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Clear worker status. Safety and privacy duties. Protected complaints and protection from punishment for speaking up.", "whyNeeded": "A real right to refuse depends on protection from lost pay, dismissal, or punishment after a safety or fairness concern.", "ifMissing": "Without that protection, workers cannot use the pause or complaint route safely.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "SC-WORK-01", "src-ilo-exposure-indicators-2026" ] }, { "dependency": "No specific site or physical asset is required.", "whyNeeded": "This need is about information and power in both digital and hands-on workplaces. It does not depend on one kind of site.", "ifMissing": "Requiring a particular site would add a false barrier without improving worker control.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "SC-WORK-01", "src-ilo-exposure-indicators-2026" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-003", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-lived-05" ], "actorOrPerson": "Workers whose tasks, hours, or employer change while paid work still shapes income and daily life", "triggerOrContext": "Jobs persist but their task mix, supervision, hours and security change unevenly across firms and places.", "plainJob": "Help me move through a work change without a sudden loss of pay, daily structure, accepted skill or contact with people.", "observableCompletion": "The person knows what will change. They keep pay or get short-term support. They have a dated learning or job-move plan. They can keep chosen social and care duties during the change.", "repeatedDemand": "Task redesign, contract changes and employer turnover recur rather than happen once.", "why2031Not2026": "Proof in 2026 shows job exposure and mixed gains, not one clear result for paid work. In W01, routine machine help creates many smaller job changes instead of one clean break.", "worldIds": [ "w01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "EWF-07", "SC-G01", "SC-WORK-01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter wherever a job change can cut pay, daily structure, or contact. The assigned evidence does not show one transition pattern across places." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Income support, training, transport, care duties, and local job options vary by person and place." ], "unknowns": [ "The effect on net wages", "Whether hours shrink or become more intense", "How care duties affect a person's ability to retrain" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Employers may redesign roles, but they must explain major changes and follow labour law and rules for pay and support.", "remedyIfItFails": "Workers can correct records, challenge unfair selection, carry pay and benefit rights, and reach a human adviser during the transition.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "No transition plan can promise permanent paid work." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Permanent paid work", "A job always creates belonging", "Every role can be preserved" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Workers are churned through short, monitored roles", "whoIsHurt": "Workers and families who face repeated moves, unstable hours, and constant tracking", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Give clear notice, bridge pay and benefits, and a dated plan for the next stable role." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Training brings no progress", "whoIsHurt": "Workers who complete courses but receive no new task, pay, or responsibility", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Link training to real paid tasks and a stated next level. Let the worker carry accepted proof elsewhere." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Job figures hide lost routine and contact", "whoIsHurt": "Workers who still appear employed but lose hours, colleagues, or a stable daily pattern", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Track hours, security, contact, and wellbeing as well as job status. Offer support before the role breaks down." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Care duties block the transition", "whoIsHurt": "Carers who cannot attend fixed training, travel, or accept sudden shifts", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Offer flexible paid learning, care support, transport help, and more than one route to the next role." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "No specific technical system is required.", "whyNeeded": "Income, routine, social contact, and recognised skill can continue through human and public support. No particular digital system is essential.", "ifMissing": "Requiring a technical system would add a false barrier to a need that can be met through people and public services.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "EWF-07", "SC-G01", "SC-WORK-01" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Notice of major changes. Pay and benefit rights that move with the worker. Fair selection and correction rights.", "whyNeeded": "Continuity depends on fair treatment backed by law, not only on employer goodwill.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, a person can lose pay or benefits without notice and cannot challenge an unfair transition.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "EWF-07", "SC-G01", "SC-WORK-01" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Accessible training or job-placement settings, transport or remote options, and care cover where needed.", "whyNeeded": "A dated transition plan works only if the person can reach the job, training, or support while meeting care and access needs.", "ifMissing": "Without practical access, the pathway exists on paper but the person cannot attend, practise, or keep essential care duties.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "EWF-07", "SC-G01", "SC-WORK-01" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-lived-05", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "Workers whose tasks, hours, or employer change while paid work still shapes income and daily life", "triggerOrContext": "Jobs persist but their task mix, supervision, hours and security change unevenly across firms and places.", "plainJob": "Help me move through a work change without a sudden loss of pay, daily structure, accepted skill or contact with people.", "observableCompletion": "The person knows what will change. They keep pay or get short-term support. They have a dated learning or job-move plan. They can keep chosen social and care duties during the change.", "repeatedDemand": "Task redesign, contract changes and employer turnover recur rather than happen once.", "why2031Not2026": "Proof in 2026 shows job exposure and mixed gains, not one clear result for paid work. In W01, routine machine help creates many smaller job changes instead of one clean break.", "worldIds": [ "W01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "EWF-07", "SC-G01", "SC-WORK-01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter wherever a job change can cut pay, daily structure, or contact. The assigned evidence does not show one transition pattern across places." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Income support, training, transport, care duties, and local job options vary by person and place." ], "unknowns": [ "The effect on net wages", "Whether hours shrink or become more intense", "How care duties affect a person's ability to retrain" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Employers may redesign roles, but they must explain major changes and follow labour law and rules for pay and support.", "remedyIfItFails": "Workers can correct records, challenge unfair selection, carry pay and benefit rights, and reach a human adviser during the transition.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "No transition plan can promise permanent paid work." }, "nonPromises": [ "Permanent paid work", "A job always creates belonging", "Every role can be preserved" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Workers are churned through short, monitored roles", "whoIsHurt": "Workers and families who face repeated moves, unstable hours, and constant tracking", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Give clear notice, bridge pay and benefits, and a dated plan for the next stable role." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Training brings no progress", "whoIsHurt": "Workers who complete courses but receive no new task, pay, or responsibility", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Link training to real paid tasks and a stated next level. Let the worker carry accepted proof elsewhere." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Job figures hide lost routine and contact", "whoIsHurt": "Workers who still appear employed but lose hours, colleagues, or a stable daily pattern", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Track hours, security, contact, and wellbeing as well as job status. Offer support before the role breaks down." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Care duties block the transition", "whoIsHurt": "Carers who cannot attend fixed training, travel, or accept sudden shifts", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Offer flexible paid learning, care support, transport help, and more than one route to the next role." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "No specific technical system is required.", "whyNeeded": "Income, routine, social contact, and recognised skill can continue through human and public support. No particular digital system is essential.", "ifMissing": "Requiring a technical system would add a false barrier to a need that can be met through people and public services.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "EWF-07", "SC-G01", "SC-WORK-01" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Notice of major changes. Pay and benefit rights that move with the worker. Fair selection and correction rights.", "whyNeeded": "Continuity depends on fair treatment backed by law, not only on employer goodwill.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, a person can lose pay or benefits without notice and cannot challenge an unfair transition.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "EWF-07", "SC-G01", "SC-WORK-01" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Accessible training or job-placement settings, transport or remote options, and care cover where needed.", "whyNeeded": "A dated transition plan works only if the person can reach the job, training, or support while meeting care and access needs.", "ifMissing": "Without practical access, the pathway exists on paper but the person cannot attend, practise, or keep essential care duties.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "EWF-07", "SC-G01", "SC-WORK-01" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-004", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-lived-07" ], "actorOrPerson": "Learners, teachers, employers, and skilled worker groups", "triggerOrContext": "Generated work weakens output-only assessment while W01 still depends on trained people who can understand, check the work and take responsibility.", "plainJob": "Let me learn with help and prove that I understand the work, can spot a problem and can act safely when the answer is wrong.", "observableCompletion": "The learner explains their choices, works in a fresh supervised setting, and responds to an error. A teacher gives feedback. The learner carries accepted proof without exposing private data that is not needed.", "repeatedDemand": "Learning, new review, role progression and tool changes recur across a working life.", "why2031Not2026": "Guidance and early studies show that teaching methods matter. They do not yet prove wide transfer or fair tests. W01 needs trusted proof of learning as machine help becomes normal.", "worldIds": [ "w01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "AC-09", "EWF-04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter wherever generated work is used in learning or assessment. The assigned evidence does not show which places face the greatest learning risk." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Teacher time, language support, device access, and the rules for accepting learning records vary by place." ], "unknowns": [ "Which evidence predicts safe performance later", "How much recording is fair and necessary", "Whether employers accept learning evidence from another organisation" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Teachers and recognised organisations judge learning using several kinds of evidence. No generated judgement is the sole authority.", "remedyIfItFails": "Learners can inspect the evidence, correct errors, request fair adjustments, and obtain a new human review.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Using machine help cannot promise better learning." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Using machine help improves learning", "One learning record is accepted everywhere", "More surveillance makes assessment fair" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Generated answers are mistaken for learning", "whoIsHurt": "Learners who receive credit without being able to explain, check, or safely use the work", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Use a fresh supervised task, ask the learner to explain choices, and include a realistic error to handle." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Learning records expose too much private data", "whoIsHurt": "Learners whose home, disability, behaviour, or draft work is collected without need", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Collect the least data needed, let the learner inspect and correct it, and erase private details after review." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Prestige replaces proof", "whoIsHurt": "Learners from unfamiliar schools, routes, or backgrounds whose real skill is ignored", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Use clear task-based criteria, include an outside reviewer, and allow a human appeal." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Learners without devices are excluded", "whoIsHurt": "Learners who lack a suitable device, stable connection, or accessible software", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Lend equipment, provide an offline and accessible route, and give the same time and recognition." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Accessible assessment tools. A record of how machine help was used. Evidence that can move with the learner. Safe correction controls.", "whyNeeded": "The organisation must separate supported performance from lasting understanding without collecting unnecessary private data.", "ifMissing": "Without that separation, generated work is mistaken for learning or the learning record turns into surveillance.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-09", "EWF-04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Privacy and disability-access duties. Fair adjustments. A new human review and clear recognition rules.", "whyNeeded": "Fair evidence needs limits on tracking and a human route to challenge a hidden or wrong judgement.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, learners can be excluded or permanently misjudged by a process they cannot inspect or appeal.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-09", "EWF-04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Teachers or skilled assessors, fresh supervised practice, relevant tools, and safe conditions.", "whyNeeded": "The learner must show safe judgement in a setting that reveals errors, context, and consequences.", "ifMissing": "Without real or realistic practice, the evidence shows only an answer, not safe performance.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-09", "EWF-04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-lived-07", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "Learners, teachers, employers, and skilled worker groups", "triggerOrContext": "Generated work weakens output-only assessment while W01 still depends on trained people who can understand, check the work and take responsibility.", "plainJob": "Let me learn with help and prove that I understand the work, can spot a problem and can act safely when the answer is wrong.", "observableCompletion": "The learner explains their choices, works in a fresh supervised setting, and responds to an error. A teacher gives feedback. The learner carries accepted proof without exposing private data that is not needed.", "repeatedDemand": "Learning, new review, role progression and tool changes recur across a working life.", "why2031Not2026": "Guidance and early studies show that teaching methods matter. They do not yet prove wide transfer or fair tests. W01 needs trusted proof of learning as machine help becomes normal.", "worldIds": [ "W01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "AC-09", "EWF-04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter wherever generated work is used in learning or assessment. The assigned evidence does not show which places face the greatest learning risk." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Teacher time, language support, device access, and the rules for accepting learning records vary by place." ], "unknowns": [ "Which evidence predicts safe performance later", "How much recording is fair and necessary", "Whether employers accept learning evidence from another organisation" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Teachers and recognised organisations judge learning using several kinds of evidence. No generated judgement is the sole authority.", "remedyIfItFails": "Learners can inspect the evidence, correct errors, request fair adjustments, and obtain a new human review.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Using machine help cannot promise better learning." }, "nonPromises": [ "Using machine help improves learning", "One learning record is accepted everywhere", "More surveillance makes assessment fair" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Generated answers are mistaken for learning", "whoIsHurt": "Learners who receive credit without being able to explain, check, or safely use the work", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Use a fresh supervised task, ask the learner to explain choices, and include a realistic error to handle." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Learning records expose too much private data", "whoIsHurt": "Learners whose home, disability, behaviour, or draft work is collected without need", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Collect the least data needed, let the learner inspect and correct it, and erase private details after review." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Prestige replaces proof", "whoIsHurt": "Learners from unfamiliar schools, routes, or backgrounds whose real skill is ignored", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Use clear task-based criteria, include an outside reviewer, and allow a human appeal." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Learners without devices are excluded", "whoIsHurt": "Learners who lack a suitable device, stable connection, or accessible software", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Lend equipment, provide an offline and accessible route, and give the same time and recognition." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Accessible assessment tools. A record of how machine help was used. Evidence that can move with the learner. Safe correction controls.", "whyNeeded": "The organisation must separate supported performance from lasting understanding without collecting unnecessary private data.", "ifMissing": "Without that separation, generated work is mistaken for learning or the learning record turns into surveillance.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-09", "EWF-04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Privacy and disability-access duties. Fair adjustments. A new human review and clear recognition rules.", "whyNeeded": "Fair evidence needs limits on tracking and a human route to challenge a hidden or wrong judgement.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, learners can be excluded or permanently misjudged by a process they cannot inspect or appeal.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-09", "EWF-04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Teachers or skilled assessors, fresh supervised practice, relevant tools, and safe conditions.", "whyNeeded": "The learner must show safe judgement in a setting that reveals errors, context, and consequences.", "ifMissing": "Without real or realistic practice, the evidence shows only an answer, not safe performance.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-09", "EWF-04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-005", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-lived-10" ], "actorOrPerson": "Disconnected, low-literacy, disabled, informal, rural, displaced and document-poor people", "triggerOrContext": "Assisted work and public services become common. But network access, devices, language, ID records and public service staff remain uneven.", "plainJob": "Let me get the same choice, work opportunity or key help through a person or simple route when I cannot use the main online path.", "observableCompletion": "The person can start and finish through a simple route. They receive the same reason and way to fix an error. They are not punished for lacking a device, stable link, or standard document.", "repeatedDemand": "Network access, disability, migration, records and service outages change across a person's life and across locations.", "why2031Not2026": "Gaps in network access and safety are large in 2026. W01 relies more on machine help while staff, funds, devices, and access to places still vary. Human and offline routes must work just as well.", "worldIds": [ "w01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-05", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "PC-S01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter wherever a digital route blocks people who lack a device, stable connection, standard record, language support, or accessible design. The assigned evidence does not show which places face the greatest barrier." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Network access, disability support, language, staff, and the right to use an offline route vary by service and place." ], "unknowns": [ "Whether the offline route leads to the same outcome", "How local-language quality is checked", "Whether people using alternative identity evidence face unfair fraud claims" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The responsible public body decides eligibility or service duty. A device or private identity provider cannot decide alone.", "remedyIfItFails": "Offer assisted correction, a human appeal, records that can move between routes, and an offline way to finish the task.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "The routes may not always work at the same speed." } ], "nonPromises": [ "The same speed in every setting", "Perfect network access", "All identity checks disappear" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "The offline route gives second-class service", "whoIsHurt": "People who cannot use the main digital route and receive a slower or worse outcome", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Apply the same rules, response times, reasons, and right to a fix to both routes. Publish any gap." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Language errors change the outcome", "whoIsHurt": "People using a minority language or translation support", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Offer a trained human interpreter, show the translated reason, and correct both the decision and source record." }, { "harmOrFailure": "One ID error also stops payment", "whoIsHurt": "People whose identity, service, and payment records fail together", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep the records separate, restore service and payment through a manual route, and repair each record." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Workers outside formal jobs face lower pay without help", "whoIsHurt": "Workers whose tasks are affected by machine tools but who lack formal support or appeal rights", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Provide an assisted human route, enforce wage and fair-treatment rules, and include these workers in support plans." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Accessible, local-language interfaces. Records that work across routes. Safe offline capture and later update.", "whyNeeded": "The assisted, offline, and main digital routes must keep the same case, reason, and correction.", "ifMissing": "Without shared records, manual cases can be lost, downgraded, or separated from the record used for the decision.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-05", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "PC-S01" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Equal access and disability-access duties. Alternative identity evidence. Notice and a human appeal.", "whyNeeded": "People need equal treatment when a device, standard document, or digital route does not fit.", "ifMissing": "Without that right, the alternative route exists in name but gives slower, worse, or unappealable treatment.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-05", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "PC-S01" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Staffed counters or field support, accessible sites and transport, backup power, and communications.", "whyNeeded": "An offline or assisted route must have staff and be easy to reach when the main system fails.", "ifMissing": "Without those resources, the backup is closed or unusable during the event that makes it necessary.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-05", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "PC-S01" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-lived-10", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "Disconnected, low-literacy, disabled, informal, rural, displaced and document-poor people", "triggerOrContext": "Assisted work and public services become common. But network access, devices, language, ID records and public service staff remain uneven.", "plainJob": "Let me get the same choice, work opportunity or key help through a person or simple route when I cannot use the main online path.", "observableCompletion": "The person can start and finish through a simple route. They receive the same reason and way to fix an error. They are not punished for lacking a device, stable link, or standard document.", "repeatedDemand": "Network access, disability, migration, records and service outages change across a person's life and across locations.", "why2031Not2026": "Gaps in network access and safety are large in 2026. W01 relies more on machine help while staff, funds, devices, and access to places still vary. Human and offline routes must work just as well.", "worldIds": [ "W01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-05", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "PC-S01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter wherever a digital route blocks people who lack a device, stable connection, standard record, language support, or accessible design. The assigned evidence does not show which places face the greatest barrier." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Network access, disability support, language, staff, and the right to use an offline route vary by service and place." ], "unknowns": [ "Whether the offline route leads to the same outcome", "How local-language quality is checked", "Whether people using alternative identity evidence face unfair fraud claims" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The responsible public body decides eligibility or service duty. A device or private identity provider cannot decide alone.", "remedyIfItFails": "Offer assisted correction, a human appeal, records that can move between routes, and an offline way to finish the task.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "The routes may not always work at the same speed." }, "nonPromises": [ "The same speed in every setting", "Perfect network access", "All identity checks disappear" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "The offline route gives second-class service", "whoIsHurt": "People who cannot use the main digital route and receive a slower or worse outcome", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Apply the same rules, response times, reasons, and right to a fix to both routes. Publish any gap." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Language errors change the outcome", "whoIsHurt": "People using a minority language or translation support", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Offer a trained human interpreter, show the translated reason, and correct both the decision and source record." }, { "harmOrFailure": "One ID error also stops payment", "whoIsHurt": "People whose identity, service, and payment records fail together", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep the records separate, restore service and payment through a manual route, and repair each record." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Workers outside formal jobs face lower pay without help", "whoIsHurt": "Workers whose tasks are affected by machine tools but who lack formal support or appeal rights", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Provide an assisted human route, enforce wage and fair-treatment rules, and include these workers in support plans." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Accessible, local-language interfaces. Records that work across routes. Safe offline capture and later update.", "whyNeeded": "The assisted, offline, and main digital routes must keep the same case, reason, and correction.", "ifMissing": "Without shared records, manual cases can be lost, downgraded, or separated from the record used for the decision.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-05", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "PC-S01" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Equal access and disability-access duties. Alternative identity evidence. Notice and a human appeal.", "whyNeeded": "People need equal treatment when a device, standard document, or digital route does not fit.", "ifMissing": "Without that right, the alternative route exists in name but gives slower, worse, or unappealable treatment.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-05", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "PC-S01" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Staffed counters or field support, accessible sites and transport, backup power, and communications.", "whyNeeded": "An offline or assisted route must have staff and be easy to reach when the main system fails.", "ifMissing": "Without those resources, the backup is closed or unusable during the event that makes it necessary.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-05", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "PC-S01" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-006", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-lived-11" ], "actorOrPerson": "People who feel lonely, have little contact, live alone, have mental illness, or seek a local group", "triggerOrContext": "Paid work remains common but does not promise a sense of place. Cheap computer-made attention may help someone take a first step, or it may replace two-way contact.", "plainJob": "Help me name what I actually need and, if I choose machine support, use it to reach suitable people, groups or care without trapping me there.", "observableCompletion": "The route treats loneliness, isolation, home life, and mental illness as different needs. The person chooses the goal. Real contact or care happens when wanted. Saved records and exit controls work. Harmful dependence or lost offline contact is noticed.", "repeatedDemand": "Connection changes after work shifts, illness, migration, bereavement, conflict and relationship change.", "why2031Not2026": "Studies of digital support in 2026 are short, mixed, and not global. In W01, these tools remain a bridge. Benefit must be shown through real human contact and taking part.", "worldIds": [ "w01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-G01", "SC-G02", "SC-G05", "SC-WORK-01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter wherever people seek support for loneliness, isolation, or mental illness. The assigned evidence does not show one social pattern that fits every place." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Family life, language, health services, local groups, and attitudes to machine support vary by person and place." ], "unknowns": [ "The long-term cause and effect of using digital support", "Which people benefit and which become dependent", "Whether a staffed local group or care service is ready to receive people" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The person chooses whether to use the tool and what it remembers. Trained health and care services keep their clinical and patient-safety duties.", "remedyIfItFails": "Let the person inspect and erase saved data, leave normally, report pressure, and stop prompts to return. Offer trained crisis help and a human alternative.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "The tool cannot promise lasting friendship." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Lasting friendship", "A sense of belonging", "Clinical treatment", "Living alone always means a problem", "Paid work protects mental health" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "A digital tool replaces needed staff", "whoIsHurt": "People seeking mental-health, social, or practical support and the staff who serve them", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish staff levels and successful handoffs, keep a human route, and restore staff when the tool becomes a substitute." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Saved data cannot be moved or erased", "whoIsHurt": "People whose private conversations remain trapped with one provider", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Let the person inspect, export, and erase saved data through a simple route, with a human fix when it fails." }, { "harmOrFailure": "The tool applies hidden pressure", "whoIsHurt": "Children, lonely people, and people in distress who may be easier to influence", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Disclose prompts and paid influence, let users stop return messages, and provide a complaint and outside review." }, { "harmOrFailure": "The crisis handoff fails", "whoIsHurt": "People in crisis who need trained human care", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Send crisis signs to trained staff, test response times, and keep phone and in-person backups." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Contact volume is mistaken for belonging", "whoIsHurt": "People who use the tool often but remain isolated or unsupported", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Ask whether wanted human contact and care improved. Do not treat time in the tool as proof of belonging." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: User control of saved data. Clear privacy choices and ordinary exit. Reliable routing to a human.", "whyNeeded": "A chosen bridge requires control of saved data and a working route to the person or service beyond the tool.", "ifMissing": "Without those controls, the tool can become a captive substitute or fail when real help is needed.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-G01", "SC-G02", "SC-G05", "SC-WORK-01" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Data rights and rules against unfair pressure. Child and crisis protections. Continuing public-service duties.", "whyNeeded": "People at greater risk need legal limits and a responsible organisation when privacy, saved data, or crisis handling fails.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, the person may identify harm but cannot stop return prompts, reach care, or correct the record.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-G01", "SC-G02", "SC-G05", "SC-WORK-01" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Available people and groups, accessible transport and public places, and staffed care when needed.", "whyNeeded": "The bridge is complete only when the person reaches real human participation or care.", "ifMissing": "Without reachable people or services, the tool offers referral words but no real destination.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-G01", "SC-G02", "SC-G05", "SC-WORK-01" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-lived-11", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "People who feel lonely, have little contact, live alone, have mental illness, or seek a local group", "triggerOrContext": "Paid work remains common but does not promise a sense of place. Cheap computer-made attention may help someone take a first step, or it may replace two-way contact.", "plainJob": "Help me name what I actually need and, if I choose machine support, use it to reach suitable people, groups or care without trapping me there.", "observableCompletion": "The route treats loneliness, isolation, home life, and mental illness as different needs. The person chooses the goal. Real contact or care happens when wanted. Saved records and exit controls work. Harmful dependence or lost offline contact is noticed.", "repeatedDemand": "Connection changes after work shifts, illness, migration, bereavement, conflict and relationship change.", "why2031Not2026": "Studies of digital support in 2026 are short, mixed, and not global. In W01, these tools remain a bridge. Benefit must be shown through real human contact and taking part.", "worldIds": [ "W01" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-G01", "SC-G02", "SC-G05", "SC-WORK-01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter wherever people seek support for loneliness, isolation, or mental illness. The assigned evidence does not show one social pattern that fits every place." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Family life, language, health services, local groups, and attitudes to machine support vary by person and place." ], "unknowns": [ "The long-term cause and effect of using digital support", "Which people benefit and which become dependent", "Whether a staffed local group or care service is ready to receive people" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The person chooses whether to use the tool and what it remembers. Trained health and care services keep their clinical and patient-safety duties.", "remedyIfItFails": "Let the person inspect and erase saved data, leave normally, report pressure, and stop prompts to return. Offer trained crisis help and a human alternative.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "The tool cannot promise lasting friendship." }, "nonPromises": [ "Lasting friendship", "A sense of belonging", "Clinical treatment", "Living alone always means a problem", "Paid work protects mental health" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "A digital tool replaces needed staff", "whoIsHurt": "People seeking mental-health, social, or practical support and the staff who serve them", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish staff levels and successful handoffs, keep a human route, and restore staff when the tool becomes a substitute." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Saved data cannot be moved or erased", "whoIsHurt": "People whose private conversations remain trapped with one provider", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Let the person inspect, export, and erase saved data through a simple route, with a human fix when it fails." }, { "harmOrFailure": "The tool applies hidden pressure", "whoIsHurt": "Children, lonely people, and people in distress who may be easier to influence", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Disclose prompts and paid influence, let users stop return messages, and provide a complaint and outside review." }, { "harmOrFailure": "The crisis handoff fails", "whoIsHurt": "People in crisis who need trained human care", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Send crisis signs to trained staff, test response times, and keep phone and in-person backups." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Contact volume is mistaken for belonging", "whoIsHurt": "People who use the tool often but remain isolated or unsupported", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Ask whether wanted human contact and care improved. Do not treat time in the tool as proof of belonging." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: User control of saved data. Clear privacy choices and ordinary exit. Reliable routing to a human.", "whyNeeded": "A chosen bridge requires control of saved data and a working route to the person or service beyond the tool.", "ifMissing": "Without those controls, the tool can become a captive substitute or fail when real help is needed.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-G01", "SC-G02", "SC-G05", "SC-WORK-01" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Data rights and rules against unfair pressure. Child and crisis protections. Continuing public-service duties.", "whyNeeded": "People at greater risk need legal limits and a responsible organisation when privacy, saved data, or crisis handling fails.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, the person may identify harm but cannot stop return prompts, reach care, or correct the record.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-G01", "SC-G02", "SC-G05", "SC-WORK-01" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Available people and groups, accessible transport and public places, and staffed care when needed.", "whyNeeded": "The bridge is complete only when the person reaches real human participation or care.", "ifMissing": "Without reachable people or services, the tool offers referral words but no real destination.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-G01", "SC-G02", "SC-G05", "SC-WORK-01" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-007", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-lived-14" ], "actorOrPerson": "People whose paid knowledge income falls, such as carers, workers outside formal jobs, migrants, disabled people, and people between roles", "triggerOrContext": "In W02, paid knowledge work may no longer give families steady income. Income from owned assets or public support must keep buying power and demand from falling.", "plainJob": "Pay me enough to meet real costs, keep it when I move or change status, explain any change and let a person fix mistakes quickly.", "observableCompletion": "The person can join through a simple route and see how the payment was worked out. They can meet normal living costs without forced work. Support follows a move or life change. A human fixes errors before lasting harm.", "repeatedDemand": "Living costs, family life, disability, care duties, moves, rights, and records keep changing.", "why2031Not2026": "Many people lack enough support in 2026, and fast payment does not prove that support is enough. W02 needs a new income route after a possible work break.", "worldIds": [ "w02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter wherever paid knowledge work no longer gives families steady income. The assigned evidence shows gaps in support, but not one regional path after a work break." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Living costs, public funds, payment systems, identity rules, and access to housing and services vary by person and place." ], "unknowns": [ "How much support remains enough after housing and climate costs", "How rights and records would move between countries", "Whether people with informal or missing documents can enrol safely" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Public law defines the right and what level of support is enough. Employers, civic groups, and private identity providers do not control lawful access to income.", "remedyIfItFails": "Give notice and a clear explanation. Offer assisted and offline access, a human correction, emergency continuity, and an outside appeal.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Income alone cannot promise belonging or a valued role." } ], "nonPromises": [ "A sense of belonging", "A valued role", "Political trust", "Income alone fixes demand in every place" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "The payment is exact but still too low", "whoIsHurt": "People whose payment follows the formula but does not cover normal living costs", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish the formula and cost measure, adjust the amount quickly, and cover urgent shortfalls during review." }, { "harmOrFailure": "An automated sanction stops support", "whoIsHurt": "People whose income is cut by a machine-led error or hidden rule", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Require human review before a cut, give the full reason, and restore payment from the date of the error." }, { "harmOrFailure": "An identity error blocks support", "whoIsHurt": "People with missing, changed, or informal records", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Accept other proof, provide a document-light human route, and correct the identity and payment records." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Support depends on a forced task", "whoIsHurt": "Disabled people, carers, and others who cannot or do not choose the required activity", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep income separate from participation, protect the right to say no, and provide a human appeal." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Payment arrives but housing or services do not", "whoIsHurt": "Families who have cash but cannot reach an affordable home, care, energy, or transport", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Track real access and unpaid bills, link income plans to local services, and fund the missing delivery." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Accessible enrolment and payment routes. Case and eligibility records that can move with the person. Human correction and an outage backup.", "whyNeeded": "Regular income must follow the person, arrive reliably, and keep an inspectable case when status or records change.", "ifMissing": "Without this, payments can stop, duplicate, or follow an old status while the person cannot prove or correct the right.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: A right to enough support. Fair process and record transfer. A right to refuse unrelated tasks and seek an outside appeal.", "whyNeeded": "Support must be a correctable legal right, not a payment that officials can remove because of an unrelated task.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, income can be too low, tied to forced tasks, or removed without a timely explanation and correction.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Usable payment or cash access. Available housing, food, energy, transport, and staffed backup.", "whyNeeded": "Income preserves buying power only when people can receive it and buy basic needs where they live.", "ifMissing": "Without supply and backup, an adequate payment on paper may not secure basic needs.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-lived-14", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "People whose paid knowledge income falls, such as carers, workers outside formal jobs, migrants, disabled people, and people between roles", "triggerOrContext": "In W02, paid knowledge work may no longer give families steady income. Income from owned assets or public support must keep buying power and demand from falling.", "plainJob": "Pay me enough to meet real costs, keep it when I move or change status, explain any change and let a person fix mistakes quickly.", "observableCompletion": "The person can join through a simple route and see how the payment was worked out. They can meet normal living costs without forced work. Support follows a move or life change. A human fixes errors before lasting harm.", "repeatedDemand": "Living costs, family life, disability, care duties, moves, rights, and records keep changing.", "why2031Not2026": "Many people lack enough support in 2026, and fast payment does not prove that support is enough. W02 needs a new income route after a possible work break.", "worldIds": [ "W02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter wherever paid knowledge work no longer gives families steady income. The assigned evidence shows gaps in support, but not one regional path after a work break." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Living costs, public funds, payment systems, identity rules, and access to housing and services vary by person and place." ], "unknowns": [ "How much support remains enough after housing and climate costs", "How rights and records would move between countries", "Whether people with informal or missing documents can enrol safely" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Public law defines the right and what level of support is enough. Employers, civic groups, and private identity providers do not control lawful access to income.", "remedyIfItFails": "Give notice and a clear explanation. Offer assisted and offline access, a human correction, emergency continuity, and an outside appeal.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Income alone cannot promise belonging or a valued role." }, "nonPromises": [ "A sense of belonging", "A valued role", "Political trust", "Income alone fixes demand in every place" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "The payment is exact but still too low", "whoIsHurt": "People whose payment follows the formula but does not cover normal living costs", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish the formula and cost measure, adjust the amount quickly, and cover urgent shortfalls during review." }, { "harmOrFailure": "An automated sanction stops support", "whoIsHurt": "People whose income is cut by a machine-led error or hidden rule", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Require human review before a cut, give the full reason, and restore payment from the date of the error." }, { "harmOrFailure": "An identity error blocks support", "whoIsHurt": "People with missing, changed, or informal records", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Accept other proof, provide a document-light human route, and correct the identity and payment records." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Support depends on a forced task", "whoIsHurt": "Disabled people, carers, and others who cannot or do not choose the required activity", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep income separate from participation, protect the right to say no, and provide a human appeal." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Payment arrives but housing or services do not", "whoIsHurt": "Families who have cash but cannot reach an affordable home, care, energy, or transport", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Track real access and unpaid bills, link income plans to local services, and fund the missing delivery." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Accessible enrolment and payment routes. Case and eligibility records that can move with the person. Human correction and an outage backup.", "whyNeeded": "Regular income must follow the person, arrive reliably, and keep an inspectable case when status or records change.", "ifMissing": "Without this, payments can stop, duplicate, or follow an old status while the person cannot prove or correct the right.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: A right to enough support. Fair process and record transfer. A right to refuse unrelated tasks and seek an outside appeal.", "whyNeeded": "Support must be a correctable legal right, not a payment that officials can remove because of an unrelated task.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, income can be too low, tied to forced tasks, or removed without a timely explanation and correction.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Usable payment or cash access. Available housing, food, energy, transport, and staffed backup.", "whyNeeded": "Income preserves buying power only when people can receive it and buy basic needs where they live.", "ifMissing": "Without supply and backup, an adequate payment on paper may not secure basic needs.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-008", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-lived-16" ], "actorOrPerson": "People with less paid work, including carers, makers, learners, neighbours, stewards and people with changing ability", "triggerOrContext": "Paid work no longer supplies the main public role. But people still seek to help, learn, make, care or serve without being forced into one approved pattern.", "plainJob": "Help me find something useful I choose to do, make clear who it helps, and let other people recognise the useful work without turning it into a condition for income.", "observableCompletion": "The person chooses among real roles and understands the duties and support. The receiving group confirms who benefits. A record of the work can be used elsewhere when useful. Refusing does not remove income or rights.", "repeatedDemand": "Health, time, interests, care duties, local needs and group membership change throughout life.", "why2031Not2026": "The assigned proof does not show a group that can reliably give people useful work, status, routine, and a sense of place outside paid jobs. W02 makes this missing social role a central need.", "worldIds": [ "w02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "SC-G08" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter wherever people seek useful roles outside paid jobs. The assigned evidence does not show one model that works in every place." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Local groups, disability access, care duties, public funding, and rules on unpaid work vary by person and place." ], "unknowns": [ "Which roles create lasting two-way value", "How informal work and private care gain recognition", "How to prevent status ladders and unfair exclusion" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Receiving communities and responsible public bodies define the real work they can support. The person chooses whether to take part and keeps the legal right not to take part.", "remedyIfItFails": "Let the person correct a false record, leave a role, report exploitation, request access support, and obtain human review of recognition decisions.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A useful role cannot promise belonging, friendship, equal status, or a paid job." } ], "nonPromises": [ "A sense of belonging", "Lasting friendship", "Equal status", "A paid job", "Every task serves a public need" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "People are pushed into make-work", "whoIsHurt": "People who rely on income or services and feel forced to accept an empty role", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep participation voluntary, protect income and services after refusal, and offer other real roles." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Popularity is mistaken for useful work", "whoIsHurt": "Quiet or less-connected people whose valuable work receives little public attention", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Ask the receiving person or group to confirm the benefit, use clear criteria, and allow review." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Unpaid work replaces paid staff", "whoIsHurt": "Workers who lose paid roles and service users who lose trained support", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish staffing levels, review whether the role should be paid, and restore staff or wages when replacement occurs." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Disabled people and carers cannot take part", "whoIsHurt": "People who need flexible time, access support, transport, or a different kind of role", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Offer accessible places, remote or local options, practical support, and the same public recognition." }, { "harmOrFailure": "One civic identity is forced on every role", "whoIsHurt": "People who need different boundaries for family, care, faith, work, and civic life", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep role records separate, let people leave or change groups, and do not tie all rights to one profile." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "No specific technical system is required.", "whyNeeded": "People and groups can arrange and recognise useful two-way work without a technical system.", "ifMissing": "Requiring a technical system would shut out some people without making the work more useful.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "SC-G08" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: A legal right not to take part. Safety and protection from unfair treatment. Protection from forced or disguised unpaid work.", "whyNeeded": "The route must remain voluntary. It cannot become a condition for income or a way to replace protected paid work.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, useful work can become forced make-work, exploitative unpaid labour, or a gate to basic rights.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "SC-G08" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Accessible roles and host organisations, people, places, transport, suitable equipment, and support.", "whyNeeded": "Two-way value requires a real receiving person or group and a task that the participant can access.", "ifMissing": "Without those resources, only well-connected or able people can take part, or the recorded task helps no one.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "SC-G08" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-lived-16", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "People with less paid work, including carers, makers, learners, neighbours, stewards and people with changing ability", "triggerOrContext": "Paid work no longer supplies the main public role. But people still seek to help, learn, make, care or serve without being forced into one approved pattern.", "plainJob": "Help me find something useful I choose to do, make clear who it helps, and let other people recognise the useful work without turning it into a condition for income.", "observableCompletion": "The person chooses among real roles and understands the duties and support. The receiving group confirms who benefits. A record of the work can be used elsewhere when useful. Refusing does not remove income or rights.", "repeatedDemand": "Health, time, interests, care duties, local needs and group membership change throughout life.", "why2031Not2026": "The assigned proof does not show a group that can reliably give people useful work, status, routine, and a sense of place outside paid jobs. W02 makes this missing social role a central need.", "worldIds": [ "W02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "SC-G08" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter wherever people seek useful roles outside paid jobs. The assigned evidence does not show one model that works in every place." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Local groups, disability access, care duties, public funding, and rules on unpaid work vary by person and place." ], "unknowns": [ "Which roles create lasting two-way value", "How informal work and private care gain recognition", "How to prevent status ladders and unfair exclusion" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Receiving communities and responsible public bodies define the real work they can support. The person chooses whether to take part and keeps the legal right not to take part.", "remedyIfItFails": "Let the person correct a false record, leave a role, report exploitation, request access support, and obtain human review of recognition decisions.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A useful role cannot promise belonging, friendship, equal status, or a paid job." }, "nonPromises": [ "A sense of belonging", "Lasting friendship", "Equal status", "A paid job", "Every task serves a public need" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "People are pushed into make-work", "whoIsHurt": "People who rely on income or services and feel forced to accept an empty role", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep participation voluntary, protect income and services after refusal, and offer other real roles." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Popularity is mistaken for useful work", "whoIsHurt": "Quiet or less-connected people whose valuable work receives little public attention", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Ask the receiving person or group to confirm the benefit, use clear criteria, and allow review." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Unpaid work replaces paid staff", "whoIsHurt": "Workers who lose paid roles and service users who lose trained support", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish staffing levels, review whether the role should be paid, and restore staff or wages when replacement occurs." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Disabled people and carers cannot take part", "whoIsHurt": "People who need flexible time, access support, transport, or a different kind of role", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Offer accessible places, remote or local options, practical support, and the same public recognition." }, { "harmOrFailure": "One civic identity is forced on every role", "whoIsHurt": "People who need different boundaries for family, care, faith, work, and civic life", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep role records separate, let people leave or change groups, and do not tie all rights to one profile." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "No specific technical system is required.", "whyNeeded": "People and groups can arrange and recognise useful two-way work without a technical system.", "ifMissing": "Requiring a technical system would shut out some people without making the work more useful.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "SC-G08" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: A legal right not to take part. Safety and protection from unfair treatment. Protection from forced or disguised unpaid work.", "whyNeeded": "The route must remain voluntary. It cannot become a condition for income or a way to replace protected paid work.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, useful work can become forced make-work, exploitative unpaid labour, or a gate to basic rights.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "SC-G08" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Accessible roles and host organisations, people, places, transport, suitable equipment, and support.", "whyNeeded": "Two-way value requires a real receiving person or group and a task that the participant can access.", "ifMissing": "Without those resources, only well-connected or able people can take part, or the recorded task helps no one.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "SC-G08" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-009", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-lived-17" ], "actorOrPerson": "People whose work hours disappear or become irregular, including those with care duties, illness or limited mobility", "triggerOrContext": "Income may continue outside paid work. But the timetable, shared obligations and transitions once supplied by work no longer organise daily life.", "plainJob": "Help me shape a week with useful duties, people I expect to see, care, and rest. Let me change it when my life changes.", "observableCompletion": "The person can set and change a weekly rhythm with chosen tasks, two-way help, and rest. They can ask for reminders or access help. Illness, care duties, or choosing not to take part bring no punishment.", "repeatedDemand": "Health, home life, seasons, care duties, local events and useful roles keep changing how a person needs to plan and use their time.", "why2031Not2026": "Paid work still sets the daily rhythm for many people in 2026. Proof about meaning apart from income is thin. W02 makes a chosen weekly rhythm a common repeated need.", "worldIds": [ "w02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "SC-WORK-01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter for people who lose the daily rhythm once provided by paid work. The assigned evidence does not show one timetable that suits every person or place." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Health, care duties, local travel, safe meeting places, and access to chosen groups vary by person and place." ], "unknowns": [ "Whether less paid work gives people more control or fragments their time", "Who takes on the work of coordinating schedules and groups", "Which forms of support can survive in places with fewer public funds" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The person controls their schedule. Groups may offer commitments, but they cannot make one timetable a condition of basic income or public status.", "remedyIfItFails": "Allow an easy pause or exit, fair changes, correction of attendance records, and human help with repeated access barriers.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A weekly plan cannot promise a meaningful life or belonging." } ], "nonPromises": [ "A meaningful life", "A sense of belonging", "More useful activity", "More scheduled activity is always better" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "The schedule becomes compulsory", "whoIsHurt": "People with illness, care duties, or changing energy who cannot follow a fixed week", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Let the person change or pause the plan without losing income, services, or status." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Planning creates too much admin", "whoIsHurt": "People who spend more time reporting and scheduling than doing useful or restorative activity", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep the plan simple, make reminders optional, and offer a human helper when wanted." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Care or disability is treated as failure", "whoIsHurt": "Carers and disabled people whose changed plans are marked as poor effort", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Treat care and health changes as valid reasons to reset the plan. Remove penalties and correct the record." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Computer-made tasks fill time while human contact falls", "whoIsHurt": "People who stay busy online but lose real relationships and local support", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Track wanted human contact, fund accessible groups and places, and reduce tool prompts when offline contact falls." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "No specific technical system is required.", "whyNeeded": "A chosen weekly rhythm can grow from ordinary human commitments. Reminders may help, but no digital system is essential.", "ifMissing": "Requiring a technical system would add a false barrier to a need that people can meet through human commitments.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "SC-WORK-01" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Basic income that does not depend on attendance. Freedom to pause or leave. Disability access and fair changes.", "whyNeeded": "The rhythm is truly chosen only if illness, care, disability, or refusal does not remove income or rights.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, the timetable becomes compulsory and punishes people whose health or available time changes.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "SC-WORK-01" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Reachable people and activities, accessible public or community places, transport, and care support.", "whyNeeded": "Repeated commitments and human contact need usable places, people, and access near the person.", "ifMissing": "Without those resources, the schedule exists only on paper and time stays fragmented or filled only by computer-made contact.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "SC-WORK-01" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-lived-17", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "People whose work hours disappear or become irregular, including those with care duties, illness or limited mobility", "triggerOrContext": "Income may continue outside paid work. But the timetable, shared obligations and transitions once supplied by work no longer organise daily life.", "plainJob": "Help me shape a week with useful duties, people I expect to see, care, and rest. Let me change it when my life changes.", "observableCompletion": "The person can set and change a weekly rhythm with chosen tasks, two-way help, and rest. They can ask for reminders or access help. Illness, care duties, or choosing not to take part bring no punishment.", "repeatedDemand": "Health, home life, seasons, care duties, local events and useful roles keep changing how a person needs to plan and use their time.", "why2031Not2026": "Paid work still sets the daily rhythm for many people in 2026. Proof about meaning apart from income is thin. W02 makes a chosen weekly rhythm a common repeated need.", "worldIds": [ "W02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "SC-WORK-01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter for people who lose the daily rhythm once provided by paid work. The assigned evidence does not show one timetable that suits every person or place." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Health, care duties, local travel, safe meeting places, and access to chosen groups vary by person and place." ], "unknowns": [ "Whether less paid work gives people more control or fragments their time", "Who takes on the work of coordinating schedules and groups", "Which forms of support can survive in places with fewer public funds" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The person controls their schedule. Groups may offer commitments, but they cannot make one timetable a condition of basic income or public status.", "remedyIfItFails": "Allow an easy pause or exit, fair changes, correction of attendance records, and human help with repeated access barriers.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A weekly plan cannot promise a meaningful life or belonging." }, "nonPromises": [ "A meaningful life", "A sense of belonging", "More useful activity", "More scheduled activity is always better" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "The schedule becomes compulsory", "whoIsHurt": "People with illness, care duties, or changing energy who cannot follow a fixed week", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Let the person change or pause the plan without losing income, services, or status." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Planning creates too much admin", "whoIsHurt": "People who spend more time reporting and scheduling than doing useful or restorative activity", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep the plan simple, make reminders optional, and offer a human helper when wanted." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Care or disability is treated as failure", "whoIsHurt": "Carers and disabled people whose changed plans are marked as poor effort", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Treat care and health changes as valid reasons to reset the plan. Remove penalties and correct the record." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Computer-made tasks fill time while human contact falls", "whoIsHurt": "People who stay busy online but lose real relationships and local support", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Track wanted human contact, fund accessible groups and places, and reduce tool prompts when offline contact falls." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "No specific technical system is required.", "whyNeeded": "A chosen weekly rhythm can grow from ordinary human commitments. Reminders may help, but no digital system is essential.", "ifMissing": "Requiring a technical system would add a false barrier to a need that people can meet through human commitments.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "SC-WORK-01" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Basic income that does not depend on attendance. Freedom to pause or leave. Disability access and fair changes.", "whyNeeded": "The rhythm is truly chosen only if illness, care, disability, or refusal does not remove income or rights.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, the timetable becomes compulsory and punishes people whose health or available time changes.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "SC-WORK-01" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Reachable people and activities, accessible public or community places, transport, and care support.", "whyNeeded": "Repeated commitments and human contact need usable places, people, and access near the person.", "ifMissing": "Without those resources, the schedule exists only on paper and time stays fragmented or filled only by computer-made contact.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "SC-WORK-01" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-010", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-lived-18" ], "actorOrPerson": "People seeking acceptance, mutual help and a valued place after paid work loses its social role", "triggerOrContext": "Enough income and free time do not by themselves give acceptance, trust, two-way help, or a lasting role in a real group.", "plainJob": "Help me take part with real people often enough to be known, help and be helped, while keeping the freedom to leave or join a different group.", "observableCompletion": "Over time, the person feels accepted and able to help. Two-way help occurs. Taking part stays a choice. The group does not shut out outsiders or require computer-made contact.", "repeatedDemand": "A sense of place needs repeated contact. It can change after a move, conflict, a life change, or turnover in the group.", "why2031Not2026": "Global proof does not identify one form that reliably creates feeling included, and online contact proof is mixed. W02 requires a credible post-work social plan rather than assuming attendance is enough.", "worldIds": [ "w02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23", "SC-G01", "SC-G02", "SC-G07", "SC-G08", "src-who-social-connection-2025" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter wherever people seek acceptance and two-way help outside paid work. The assigned evidence does not support one cultural or regional model of belonging." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Language, family life, local groups, safe meeting places, transport, and freedom to leave vary by person and place." ], "unknowns": [ "Which group rules keep membership open and two-way", "How people understand belonging across cultures", "Whether recognised useful work connects social groups or makes them more closed" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Groups may set membership rules, but they must respect safety, fair access, and the freedom to leave. No public body, employer, or machine record can decide that a person belongs.", "remedyIfItFails": "A person can report exclusion or harm, leave without losing income or identity papers, and seek an outside review under safety or fair-access law.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "No group can promise friendship on demand or uniform trust." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Friendship on demand", "The same trust in every group", "Treatment for mental illness", "More contacts always reduce loneliness" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Attendance is mistaken for belonging", "whoIsHurt": "People who attend often but are not accepted, known, or able to help", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Ask about trust, two-way help, and chosen return. Do not use sign-ins as proof of belonging." }, { "harmOrFailure": "The group shuts out outsiders", "whoIsHurt": "Newcomers and minority members who cannot enter or influence the group", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish fair entry rules, offer a complaint route, and support more than one group so exit remains real." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Status games crowd out mutual help", "whoIsHurt": "Quiet members and people with less money, time, or public visibility", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Rotate valued roles, limit public status signals, and judge the group by two-way help rather than popularity." }, { "harmOrFailure": "People are pressured to take part", "whoIsHurt": "People who fear losing income, services, or status if they leave", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep income and key rights separate, protect the right to leave, and provide an outside appeal." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Outsiders are treated as lesser people", "whoIsHurt": "People outside the group who face hostility or unfair treatment", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Enforce fair-treatment rules, protect safe exit and reporting, and stop public bodies from rewarding exclusion." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "No specific technical system is required.", "whyNeeded": "Belonging comes from two-way human acceptance and participation. No technical system can create or certify it by itself.", "ifMissing": "Requiring a technical system would block some people and would not create a real group.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23", "SC-G01", "SC-G02", "SC-G07", "SC-G08", "src-who-social-connection-2025" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Safety and protection from unfair treatment. Freedom to join, leave, or form a group. No loss of income or identity papers for leaving.", "whyNeeded": "People need protection from abuse and force while groups keep freedom to organise themselves.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, a group can exclude, trap, or harm people while participation is tied to basic rights.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23", "SC-G01", "SC-G02", "SC-G07", "SC-G08", "src-who-social-connection-2025" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Real people, repeated shared activity, accessible meeting places, transport, time, and participation support.", "whyNeeded": "Belonging grows through repeated two-way presence and action, not attendance data or computer-made contact alone.", "ifMissing": "Without reachable people and places, a programme records contact but creates no lasting human group.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23", "SC-G01", "SC-G02", "SC-G07", "SC-G08", "src-who-social-connection-2025" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-lived-18", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "People seeking acceptance, mutual help and a valued place after paid work loses its social role", "triggerOrContext": "Enough income and free time do not by themselves give acceptance, trust, two-way help, or a lasting role in a real group.", "plainJob": "Help me take part with real people often enough to be known, help and be helped, while keeping the freedom to leave or join a different group.", "observableCompletion": "Over time, the person feels accepted and able to help. Two-way help occurs. Taking part stays a choice. The group does not shut out outsiders or require computer-made contact.", "repeatedDemand": "A sense of place needs repeated contact. It can change after a move, conflict, a life change, or turnover in the group.", "why2031Not2026": "Global proof does not identify one form that reliably creates feeling included, and online contact proof is mixed. W02 requires a credible post-work social plan rather than assuming attendance is enough.", "worldIds": [ "W02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23", "SC-G01", "SC-G02", "SC-G07", "SC-G08", "src-who-social-connection-2025" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter wherever people seek acceptance and two-way help outside paid work. The assigned evidence does not support one cultural or regional model of belonging." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Language, family life, local groups, safe meeting places, transport, and freedom to leave vary by person and place." ], "unknowns": [ "Which group rules keep membership open and two-way", "How people understand belonging across cultures", "Whether recognised useful work connects social groups or makes them more closed" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Groups may set membership rules, but they must respect safety, fair access, and the freedom to leave. No public body, employer, or machine record can decide that a person belongs.", "remedyIfItFails": "A person can report exclusion or harm, leave without losing income or identity papers, and seek an outside review under safety or fair-access law.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "No group can promise friendship on demand or uniform trust." }, "nonPromises": [ "Friendship on demand", "The same trust in every group", "Treatment for mental illness", "More contacts always reduce loneliness" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Attendance is mistaken for belonging", "whoIsHurt": "People who attend often but are not accepted, known, or able to help", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Ask about trust, two-way help, and chosen return. Do not use sign-ins as proof of belonging." }, { "harmOrFailure": "The group shuts out outsiders", "whoIsHurt": "Newcomers and minority members who cannot enter or influence the group", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish fair entry rules, offer a complaint route, and support more than one group so exit remains real." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Status games crowd out mutual help", "whoIsHurt": "Quiet members and people with less money, time, or public visibility", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Rotate valued roles, limit public status signals, and judge the group by two-way help rather than popularity." }, { "harmOrFailure": "People are pressured to take part", "whoIsHurt": "People who fear losing income, services, or status if they leave", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep income and key rights separate, protect the right to leave, and provide an outside appeal." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Outsiders are treated as lesser people", "whoIsHurt": "People outside the group who face hostility or unfair treatment", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Enforce fair-treatment rules, protect safe exit and reporting, and stop public bodies from rewarding exclusion." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "No specific technical system is required.", "whyNeeded": "Belonging comes from two-way human acceptance and participation. No technical system can create or certify it by itself.", "ifMissing": "Requiring a technical system would block some people and would not create a real group.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23", "SC-G01", "SC-G02", "SC-G07", "SC-G08", "src-who-social-connection-2025" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Safety and protection from unfair treatment. Freedom to join, leave, or form a group. No loss of income or identity papers for leaving.", "whyNeeded": "People need protection from abuse and force while groups keep freedom to organise themselves.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, a group can exclude, trap, or harm people while participation is tied to basic rights.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23", "SC-G01", "SC-G02", "SC-G07", "SC-G08", "src-who-social-connection-2025" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Real people, repeated shared activity, accessible meeting places, transport, time, and participation support.", "whyNeeded": "Belonging grows through repeated two-way presence and action, not attendance data or computer-made contact alone.", "ifMissing": "Without reachable people and places, a programme records contact but creates no lasting human group.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23", "SC-G01", "SC-G02", "SC-G07", "SC-G08", "src-who-social-connection-2025" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-011", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-lived-19" ], "actorOrPerson": "People who choose unpaid care, local upkeep, or care for land and nature", "triggerOrContext": "In W02, less paid knowledge work may make unpaid care and local upkeep more visible. The assigned proof does not show who does unpaid care now.", "plainJob": "Let me choose this work, get rest and help, share or leave the duty, and avoid replacing paid staff.", "observableCompletion": "The person chooses what to share. They can get rest, support, or another worker. They can leave the duty. Public services still use paid staff where staff are needed.", "repeatedDemand": "Care, repairs, and climate events return. The people, time, and tools on hand can change.", "why2031Not2026": "The assigned proof does not measure who does unpaid care or how the work is shared. In W02, paid knowledge work may shrink. By 2031, people may need choice, rest, and a way to stop unpaid help from replacing staff.", "worldIds": [ "w02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "EWF-14", "HBD-05" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter where care, local upkeep, or work on land and nature is needed. The assigned evidence does not show a clear regional pattern or who does unpaid care." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Laws, paid staff, public funds, tools, travel, and access to safe places vary by place." ], "unknowns": [ "The assigned evidence does not measure who performs unpaid care.", "We do not know how much respite or backup is available.", "We do not know when unpaid help would replace paid staff." ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The person chooses what work to do and what to share. Public services remain responsible for essential services and paid staff.", "remedyIfItFails": "Offer respite, a new human review, and a way to correct work records. Check whether the work should be paid. Restore staff if unpaid help replaced them.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "These protections cannot promise that every form of care should be paid in the same way." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Every form of care should be paid in the same way", "Family care is always safe or chosen", "Recognition of care creates belonging" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Extra work is pushed onto people without choice", "whoIsHurt": "People doing unpaid care, local upkeep, or work on land who cannot freely refuse", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Confirm consent, offer respite or another worker, and check whether the role should be paid." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Private care is watched", "whoIsHurt": "Families and people receiving care whose private life is tracked without need", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Collect no mandatory technical record, require consent for any record, and let the person inspect and erase it." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Unpaid helpers replace paid staff", "whoIsHurt": "Service users who need trained support and workers whose paid roles are removed", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish staffing levels, review the work status, and bring staff back when unpaid help became a substitute." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Illness blocks a valued role", "whoIsHurt": "Carers and volunteers who become ill or disabled and lose status or connection", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Let the person pause and return, offer a different role, and protect income and standing while they recover." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "No specific technical system is required.", "whyNeeded": "People can describe care or upkeep in their own words and receive human recognition. Required tracking could invade private life.", "ifMissing": "Requiring a technical system would add surveillance without proving that the work was chosen or supported.", "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "EWF-14", "HBD-05" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Clear consent and privacy rights. Support and respite for carers. Safety rules. A review of whether required work should be paid.", "whyNeeded": "The rules must protect choice and private life. They must also stop unpaid help from hiding work that needs paid staff.", "ifMissing": "Without these rules, people could be watched or pushed into work and public services could replace staff with unpaid help.", "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "EWF-14", "HBD-05" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Backup staff, respite, care tools, transport, safe sites, and supplies.", "whyNeeded": "Respite requires another person or team to take over safely. The work may also need tools, travel, or a safe place.", "ifMissing": "Without those resources, recognition brings no real relief and hidden workload may grow.", "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "EWF-14", "HBD-05" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-lived-19", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "People who choose unpaid care, local upkeep, or care for land and nature", "triggerOrContext": "In W02, less paid knowledge work may make unpaid care and local upkeep more visible. The assigned proof does not show who does unpaid care now.", "plainJob": "Let me choose this work, get rest and help, share or leave the duty, and avoid replacing paid staff.", "observableCompletion": "The person chooses what to share. They can get rest, support, or another worker. They can leave the duty. Public services still use paid staff where staff are needed.", "repeatedDemand": "Care, repairs, and climate events return. The people, time, and tools on hand can change.", "why2031Not2026": "The assigned proof does not measure who does unpaid care or how the work is shared. In W02, paid knowledge work may shrink. By 2031, people may need choice, rest, and a way to stop unpaid help from replacing staff.", "worldIds": [ "W02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "EWF-14", "HBD-05" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "This may matter where care, local upkeep, or work on land and nature is needed. The assigned evidence does not show a clear regional pattern or who does unpaid care." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Laws, paid staff, public funds, tools, travel, and access to safe places vary by place." ], "unknowns": [ "The assigned evidence does not measure who performs unpaid care.", "We do not know how much respite or backup is available.", "We do not know when unpaid help would replace paid staff." ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The person chooses what work to do and what to share. Public services remain responsible for essential services and paid staff.", "remedyIfItFails": "Offer respite, a new human review, and a way to correct work records. Check whether the work should be paid. Restore staff if unpaid help replaced them.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "These protections cannot promise that every form of care should be paid in the same way." }, "nonPromises": [ "Every form of care should be paid in the same way", "Family care is always safe or chosen", "Recognition of care creates belonging" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Extra work is pushed onto people without choice", "whoIsHurt": "People doing unpaid care, local upkeep, or work on land who cannot freely refuse", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Confirm consent, offer respite or another worker, and check whether the role should be paid." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Private care is watched", "whoIsHurt": "Families and people receiving care whose private life is tracked without need", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Collect no mandatory technical record, require consent for any record, and let the person inspect and erase it." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Unpaid helpers replace paid staff", "whoIsHurt": "Service users who need trained support and workers whose paid roles are removed", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish staffing levels, review the work status, and bring staff back when unpaid help became a substitute." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Illness blocks a valued role", "whoIsHurt": "Carers and volunteers who become ill or disabled and lose status or connection", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Let the person pause and return, offer a different role, and protect income and standing while they recover." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "No specific technical system is required.", "whyNeeded": "People can describe care or upkeep in their own words and receive human recognition. Required tracking could invade private life.", "ifMissing": "Requiring a technical system would add surveillance without proving that the work was chosen or supported.", "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "EWF-14", "HBD-05" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Clear consent and privacy rights. Support and respite for carers. Safety rules. A review of whether required work should be paid.", "whyNeeded": "The rules must protect choice and private life. They must also stop unpaid help from hiding work that needs paid staff.", "ifMissing": "Without these rules, people could be watched or pushed into work and public services could replace staff with unpaid help.", "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "EWF-14", "HBD-05" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Backup staff, respite, care tools, transport, safe sites, and supplies.", "whyNeeded": "Respite requires another person or team to take over safely. The work may also need tools, travel, or a safe place.", "ifMissing": "Without those resources, recognition brings no real relief and hidden workload may grow.", "evidenceIds": [ "C03", "C04", "EWF-14", "HBD-05" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-012", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-lived-22" ], "actorOrPerson": "Former knowledge workers, young people, carers, disabled people, and anyone seeking a new skilled or hands-on role", "triggerOrContext": "Online knowledge work becomes cheap in W02. Teaching, making, repair, care, and work on land still need people, tools, and places. These may become valued routes to useful work.", "plainJob": "Let me learn something that matters here, practise it safely with real people and tools, and show what I can do even if I am not entering a normal full-time job.", "observableCompletion": "The learner gets teaching and a suitable place, then completes fresh supervised practice. They receive accepted proof. They can join paid or unpaid work without a prestige or always-online gate.", "repeatedDemand": "People change roles, health, and interests while local real-world needs and tools also change.", "why2031Not2026": "Guidance in 2026 does not show that this kind of learning works well at large scale. In W02, more people may seek learning and useful roles outside standard paid knowledge work.", "worldIds": [ "w02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "RSM-13", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter wherever people seek a new skilled or hands-on role. The assigned evidence does not show which places can provide enough teachers, safe sites, tools, and transport." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Teaching staff, safety rules, disability access, tools, materials, transport, and accepted learning records vary by place." ], "unknowns": [ "Which skills and practices remain valued", "Whether hands-on roles are safe and fairly paid", "How learning records move between civic, education, and paid-work settings" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Teachers, people responsible for safety, and receiving organisations judge readiness. The learner chooses whether the route is paid, civic, or personal.", "remedyIfItFails": "Offer accessible alternatives, a new human review, correction of records, a safe right to refuse, and an appeal against unfair recognition.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "This route cannot promise a full-time job or equal physical ability." } ], "nonPromises": [ "A full-time job", "Equal physical ability", "Every form of making is socially useful", "Generated tutoring produces mastery" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Civic practice replaces paid trades", "whoIsHurt": "Paid workers whose jobs are displaced and learners used as free labour", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Set a clear line between practice and productive paid work. Review status and pay when the line is crossed." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Unsafe work is given to inexperienced people", "whoIsHurt": "Learners, supervisors, service users, and bystanders exposed to avoidable harm", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Use a qualified supervisor, check risk before the task, and let anyone stop unsafe work." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Prestige blocks access", "whoIsHurt": "People with real skill but no famous school, job title, or personal network", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Use fresh task-based proof, publish the criteria, and provide a human appeal." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Sites are hard to enter or use", "whoIsHurt": "Disabled, rural, and lower-income learners who cannot reach or use the place and tools", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Provide disability access, transport and local options, safe equipment, and an equivalent route." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Practice records become surveillance", "whoIsHurt": "Learners whose movements, behaviour, or tool use are tracked beyond what safety and learning need", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Collect only needed evidence, let learners inspect and correct it, and erase extra tracking." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Accessible learning tools. Practice and recognition records that can move with the learner. A record of tool use that affects safety.", "whyNeeded": "The learner must carry trustworthy evidence of supervised practice and understand how assisted tools affected performance.", "ifMissing": "Without that evidence, learning cannot transfer or can hide unsafe dependence on a tool.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "RSM-13", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Clear safety duties and a named responsible person. Disability access and fair treatment. Privacy, accepted learning records, and a human appeal.", "whyNeeded": "Practice must be safe, accessible, and fairly recognised in civic, education, and paid-work settings.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, a hidden or unappealable judgement can injure, exclude, or deny recognition.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "RSM-13", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Teachers, safe places and tools, materials, transport, and upkeep.", "whyNeeded": "Making, repair, and hands-on practice require supervision, equipment, and access.", "ifMissing": "Without those resources, the route stays an online lesson and produces no safe hands-on skill.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "RSM-13", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-lived-22", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "Former knowledge workers, young people, carers, disabled people, and anyone seeking a new skilled or hands-on role", "triggerOrContext": "Online knowledge work becomes cheap in W02. Teaching, making, repair, care, and work on land still need people, tools, and places. These may become valued routes to useful work.", "plainJob": "Let me learn something that matters here, practise it safely with real people and tools, and show what I can do even if I am not entering a normal full-time job.", "observableCompletion": "The learner gets teaching and a suitable place, then completes fresh supervised practice. They receive accepted proof. They can join paid or unpaid work without a prestige or always-online gate.", "repeatedDemand": "People change roles, health, and interests while local real-world needs and tools also change.", "why2031Not2026": "Guidance in 2026 does not show that this kind of learning works well at large scale. In W02, more people may seek learning and useful roles outside standard paid knowledge work.", "worldIds": [ "W02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "RSM-13", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter wherever people seek a new skilled or hands-on role. The assigned evidence does not show which places can provide enough teachers, safe sites, tools, and transport." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Teaching staff, safety rules, disability access, tools, materials, transport, and accepted learning records vary by place." ], "unknowns": [ "Which skills and practices remain valued", "Whether hands-on roles are safe and fairly paid", "How learning records move between civic, education, and paid-work settings" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Teachers, people responsible for safety, and receiving organisations judge readiness. The learner chooses whether the route is paid, civic, or personal.", "remedyIfItFails": "Offer accessible alternatives, a new human review, correction of records, a safe right to refuse, and an appeal against unfair recognition.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "This route cannot promise a full-time job or equal physical ability." }, "nonPromises": [ "A full-time job", "Equal physical ability", "Every form of making is socially useful", "Generated tutoring produces mastery" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Civic practice replaces paid trades", "whoIsHurt": "Paid workers whose jobs are displaced and learners used as free labour", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Set a clear line between practice and productive paid work. Review status and pay when the line is crossed." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Unsafe work is given to inexperienced people", "whoIsHurt": "Learners, supervisors, service users, and bystanders exposed to avoidable harm", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Use a qualified supervisor, check risk before the task, and let anyone stop unsafe work." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Prestige blocks access", "whoIsHurt": "People with real skill but no famous school, job title, or personal network", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Use fresh task-based proof, publish the criteria, and provide a human appeal." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Sites are hard to enter or use", "whoIsHurt": "Disabled, rural, and lower-income learners who cannot reach or use the place and tools", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Provide disability access, transport and local options, safe equipment, and an equivalent route." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Practice records become surveillance", "whoIsHurt": "Learners whose movements, behaviour, or tool use are tracked beyond what safety and learning need", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Collect only needed evidence, let learners inspect and correct it, and erase extra tracking." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: Accessible learning tools. Practice and recognition records that can move with the learner. A record of tool use that affects safety.", "whyNeeded": "The learner must carry trustworthy evidence of supervised practice and understand how assisted tools affected performance.", "ifMissing": "Without that evidence, learning cannot transfer or can hide unsafe dependence on a tool.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "RSM-13", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Clear safety duties and a named responsible person. Disability access and fair treatment. Privacy, accepted learning records, and a human appeal.", "whyNeeded": "Practice must be safe, accessible, and fairly recognised in civic, education, and paid-work settings.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, a hidden or unappealable judgement can injure, exclude, or deny recognition.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "RSM-13", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Teachers, safe places and tools, materials, transport, and upkeep.", "whyNeeded": "Making, repair, and hands-on practice require supervision, equipment, and access.", "ifMissing": "Without those resources, the route stays an online lesson and produces no safe hands-on skill.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "EWF-05", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "RSM-13", "src-unesco-genai-education-2023" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-013", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-a-lived-24" ], "actorOrPerson": "People with more free time or disrupted work roles, including children, lonely people, people in crisis and people far from services", "triggerOrContext": "Computer-made attention competes with civic, care, and learning groups for post-work time. It may help people reach real groups and activities, or it may become a low-cost substitute.", "plainJob": "Let me use this support for a purpose I choose, keep control of what it remembers, reach real people or care when I want, and leave without pressure or losing unrelated rights.", "observableCompletion": "The tool says clearly that it is computer-made. The person can inspect, move, or erase saved records and stop prompts to return. A promised handoff to people works. Offline contact does not quietly fall. Crisis and child duties reach responsible people.", "repeatedDemand": "Personal record, attachment, providers, groups, crisis state and desired level of contact change over time.", "why2031Not2026": "Studies ready in 2026 are short and mixed. Laws show intent rather than results. W02 gives online support tools more power to shape post-work attention and status. This raises both help and replacement risks.", "worldIds": [ "w02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "SC-G01", "SC-G05" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter wherever digital support tools shape attention, status, or routes to care. The assigned evidence is thin outside online samples and richer countries." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Language, age, home life, service staff, saved-data rules, crisis care, and offline support vary by person and place." ], "unknowns": [ "The long-term cause and effect of heavy use", "Whether heavy use causes distress or responds to it", "How computer-made status changes participation in real groups", "Whether staffed routes survive wider use of the tool" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The person controls use and saved data. Responsible health, education, child, and public services keep their human duties.", "remedyIfItFails": "Allow ordinary exit, erasing and transfer of saved data, a human handoff, trained crisis help, a complaint, correction of status effects, and restoration of staff after replacement harm.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "The tool cannot promise lasting friendship, belonging, treatment, or a valued public role." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Lasting friendship", "A sense of belonging", "Clinical treatment", "A valued public role", "More contact always means help" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "The tool is designed to create dependence", "whoIsHurt": "Children, lonely people, and people in distress who may find it hard to leave", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Let the person stop prompts to return, leave normally, and reach a human alternative without losing unrelated rights." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Saved data is trapped", "whoIsHurt": "People who cannot inspect, move, or erase a long personal history", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Provide simple inspection, export, and erasing controls, plus a human fix when they fail." }, { "harmOrFailure": "The tool applies hidden pressure", "whoIsHurt": "People whose choices are shaped by undisclosed persuasion or paid influence", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Disclose the influence, stop it on request, and provide a complaint and outside review." }, { "harmOrFailure": "A closed computer-made status group forms", "whoIsHurt": "People whose public role or self-worth becomes tied to status inside one tool", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Do not use tool status for public rights. Help people reach real groups and leave without losing their history." }, { "harmOrFailure": "The tool replaces human services", "whoIsHurt": "People who need care, learning, crisis help, or a public service and the staff who provide it", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish staff and handoff measures, keep a direct human route, and restore staff after replacement harm." }, { "harmOrFailure": "The crisis route fails", "whoIsHurt": "People in crisis who need immediate trained help", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Send crisis signs to trained staff, test the route often, and keep phone and in-person backups." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: A way to inspect, move, and erase saved data. Clear prompts that can be stopped. A reliable route to human help.", "whyNeeded": "Chosen use and exit require real control over saved data and a working route beyond computer-made contact.", "ifMissing": "Without those controls, the person can lose their history, remain trapped by return prompts, or fail to reach promised human help.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "SC-G01", "SC-G05" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Data rights and rules against unfair pressure. Child and crisis protections. Continuing public-service duties.", "whyNeeded": "Long-term use creates risks to power, privacy, and safety. Responsible human services and enforceable limits must remain in place.", "ifMissing": "Without those duties, no responsible person deals with saved-data harm or a failed crisis route, and the user has no clear right to stop or seek repair.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "SC-G01", "SC-G05" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Staffed care, real groups, accessible public places, transport, and support to take part.", "whyNeeded": "The promised bridge ends in human care or two-way participation.", "ifMissing": "Without reachable staff and places, computer-made contact grows while human services and offline participation disappear.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "SC-G01", "SC-G05" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-a-lived-24", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "People with more free time or disrupted work roles, including children, lonely people, people in crisis and people far from services", "triggerOrContext": "Computer-made attention competes with civic, care, and learning groups for post-work time. It may help people reach real groups and activities, or it may become a low-cost substitute.", "plainJob": "Let me use this support for a purpose I choose, keep control of what it remembers, reach real people or care when I want, and leave without pressure or losing unrelated rights.", "observableCompletion": "The tool says clearly that it is computer-made. The person can inspect, move, or erase saved records and stop prompts to return. A promised handoff to people works. Offline contact does not quietly fall. Crisis and child duties reach responsible people.", "repeatedDemand": "Personal record, attachment, providers, groups, crisis state and desired level of contact change over time.", "why2031Not2026": "Studies ready in 2026 are short and mixed. Laws show intent rather than results. W02 gives online support tools more power to shape post-work attention and status. This raises both help and replacement risks.", "worldIds": [ "W02" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "SC-G01", "SC-G05" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "In the W02 scenario, this may matter wherever digital support tools shape attention, status, or routes to care. The assigned evidence is thin outside online samples and richer countries." ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Language, age, home life, service staff, saved-data rules, crisis care, and offline support vary by person and place." ], "unknowns": [ "The long-term cause and effect of heavy use", "Whether heavy use causes distress or responds to it", "How computer-made status changes participation in real groups", "Whether staffed routes survive wider use of the tool" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The person controls use and saved data. Responsible health, education, child, and public services keep their human duties.", "remedyIfItFails": "Allow ordinary exit, erasing and transfer of saved data, a human handoff, trained crisis help, a complaint, correction of status effects, and restoration of staff after replacement harm.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "The tool cannot promise lasting friendship, belonging, treatment, or a valued public role." }, "nonPromises": [ "Lasting friendship", "A sense of belonging", "Clinical treatment", "A valued public role", "More contact always means help" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "The tool is designed to create dependence", "whoIsHurt": "Children, lonely people, and people in distress who may find it hard to leave", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Let the person stop prompts to return, leave normally, and reach a human alternative without losing unrelated rights." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Saved data is trapped", "whoIsHurt": "People who cannot inspect, move, or erase a long personal history", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Provide simple inspection, export, and erasing controls, plus a human fix when they fail." }, { "harmOrFailure": "The tool applies hidden pressure", "whoIsHurt": "People whose choices are shaped by undisclosed persuasion or paid influence", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Disclose the influence, stop it on request, and provide a complaint and outside review." }, { "harmOrFailure": "A closed computer-made status group forms", "whoIsHurt": "People whose public role or self-worth becomes tied to status inside one tool", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Do not use tool status for public rights. Help people reach real groups and leave without losing their history." }, { "harmOrFailure": "The tool replaces human services", "whoIsHurt": "People who need care, learning, crisis help, or a public service and the staff who provide it", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Publish staff and handoff measures, keep a direct human route, and restore staff after replacement harm." }, { "harmOrFailure": "The crisis route fails", "whoIsHurt": "People in crisis who need immediate trained help", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Send crisis signs to trained staff, test the route often, and keep phone and in-person backups." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tech needs: A way to inspect, move, and erase saved data. Clear prompts that can be stopped. A reliable route to human help.", "whyNeeded": "Chosen use and exit require real control over saved data and a working route beyond computer-made contact.", "ifMissing": "Without those controls, the person can lose their history, remain trapped by return prompts, or fail to reach promised human help.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "SC-G01", "SC-G05" ] }, { "dependency": "Law needs: Data rights and rules against unfair pressure. Child and crisis protections. Continuing public-service duties.", "whyNeeded": "Long-term use creates risks to power, privacy, and safety. Responsible human services and enforceable limits must remain in place.", "ifMissing": "Without those duties, no responsible person deals with saved-data harm or a failed crisis route, and the user has no clear right to stop or seek repair.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "SC-G01", "SC-G05" ] }, { "dependency": "Real-world needs: Staffed care, real groups, accessible public places, transport, and support to take part.", "whyNeeded": "The promised bridge ends in human care or two-way participation.", "ifMissing": "Without reachable staff and places, computer-made contact grows while human services and offline participation disappear.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "SC-G01", "SC-G05" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-014", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-lived-b-007" ], "actorOrPerson": "A worker whose pay, daily structure and recognised role disappear together", "triggerOrContext": "A job or reliable client stream ends after near-zero-cost cognition diffuses, before adequate replacement income or accepted new roles form.", "plainJob": "Help me keep a home and daily routine, do useful work people recognise, and know what I can rely on next month.", "observableCompletion": "The person has adequate and predictable resources for essentials, a chosen recurring contribution with real people, a stable weekly routine, and a route to challenge exclusion; each outcome is separately confirmed by the person.", "repeatedDemand": "At each payment cycle, job or client loss, support reassessment, move, caring change and attempt to enter a new role.", "why2031Not2026": "Current exposure estimates do not establish displacement; this lived job follows only if W03's cognition, ownership and income chain materialises.", "worldIds": [ "w03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "src-oecd-ai-trajectories-2026", "src-metr-long-tasks-2025", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024", "EWF-04", "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "SC-G07" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: if W03 removes both income and a recognised role, this need could appear across many labour markets", "The assigned evidence covers work exposure and protection gaps, not the lived result for every household" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Welfare, labour rights and family support differ widely", "Paid employees, contractors and people outside formal payrolls may face different routes to help" ], "unknowns": [ "Family, faith and mutual aid may absorb some roles", "Income adequacy and recognised contribution are not interchangeable", "Belonging cannot be inferred from participation totals" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The person chooses contribution; income and service decisions remain with accountable public or contractual bodies", "remedyIfItFails": "Payment correction, service appeal, portable recognition and access to human advice", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A transfer, course, activity total or credential cannot certify dignity, purpose, friendship or belonging." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise replacement employment", "Does not define unpaid care as free labour owed to society", "Does not promise belonging" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Forced busywork replaces agency", "whoIsHurt": "A displaced worker pushed into activity chosen only to satisfy a rule", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Let the person choose useful activity, remove the penalty and review support without using attendance as proof of success" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Unpaid survival work is relabelled as contribution", "whoIsHurt": "A household already doing unpaid care or survival work", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep income unconditional on extra unpaid work and offer paid respite or services the household chooses" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Status grading deepens exclusion", "whoIsHurt": "A person denied services because a private rating treats their contribution as too low", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Remove the rating from essential decisions, correct the record and provide a human appeal" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Income arrives but routine and reciprocity collapse", "whoIsHurt": "A person whose bills are covered but who has lost routine and reciprocal contact", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Offer voluntary, repeated routes into real teams or groups and ask the person—not an activity counter—whether they help" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Accessible payment, identity correction and portable records", "whyNeeded": "Accessible payment and correction records let money arrive reliably and let a person fix the identity or account error that stopped it.", "ifMissing": "Without them, support can exist on paper while the household misses rent, food or power.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-15" ] }, { "dependency": "Income, housing, labour, care and anti-discrimination rights", "whyNeeded": "Income, housing, labour, care and anti-discrimination rights protect basic living conditions and stop useful activity becoming forced unpaid work.", "ifMissing": "Without enforceable rights, help can be withdrawn arbitrarily or tied to unsafe and degrading conditions.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15" ] }, { "dependency": "Affordable essentials, transport, safe meeting places and staffed community institutions", "whyNeeded": "Affordable essentials and real places with staff let income support daily life, routine and contact with other people.", "ifMissing": "If housing, transport or community services are absent, money alone cannot restore stability or participation.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-lived-b-007", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "A worker whose pay, daily structure and recognised role disappear together", "triggerOrContext": "A job or reliable client stream ends after near-zero-cost cognition diffuses, before adequate replacement income or accepted new roles form.", "plainJob": "Help me keep a home and daily routine, do useful work people recognise, and know what I can rely on next month.", "observableCompletion": "The person has adequate and predictable resources for essentials, a chosen recurring contribution with real people, a stable weekly routine, and a route to challenge exclusion; each outcome is separately confirmed by the person.", "repeatedDemand": "At each payment cycle, job or client loss, support reassessment, move, caring change and attempt to enter a new role.", "why2031Not2026": "Current exposure estimates do not establish displacement; this lived job follows only if W03's cognition, ownership and income chain materialises.", "worldIds": [ "W03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "src-oecd-ai-trajectories-2026", "src-metr-long-tasks-2025", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "src-imf-ai-future-work-2024", "EWF-04", "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "SC-G07" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: if W03 removes both income and a recognised role, this need could appear across many labour markets", "The assigned evidence covers work exposure and protection gaps, not the lived result for every household" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Welfare, labour rights and family support differ widely", "Paid employees, contractors and people outside formal payrolls may face different routes to help" ], "unknowns": [ "Family, faith and mutual aid may absorb some roles", "Income adequacy and recognised contribution are not interchangeable", "Belonging cannot be inferred from participation totals" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The person chooses contribution; income and service decisions remain with accountable public or contractual bodies", "remedyIfItFails": "Payment correction, service appeal, portable recognition and access to human advice", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A transfer, course, activity total or credential cannot certify dignity, purpose, friendship or belonging." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise replacement employment", "Does not define unpaid care as free labour owed to society", "Does not promise belonging" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Forced busywork replaces agency", "whoIsHurt": "A displaced worker pushed into activity chosen only to satisfy a rule", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Let the person choose useful activity, remove the penalty and review support without using attendance as proof of success" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Unpaid survival work is relabelled as contribution", "whoIsHurt": "A household already doing unpaid care or survival work", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep income unconditional on extra unpaid work and offer paid respite or services the household chooses" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Status grading deepens exclusion", "whoIsHurt": "A person denied services because a private rating treats their contribution as too low", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Remove the rating from essential decisions, correct the record and provide a human appeal" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Income arrives but routine and reciprocity collapse", "whoIsHurt": "A person whose bills are covered but who has lost routine and reciprocal contact", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Offer voluntary, repeated routes into real teams or groups and ask the person—not an activity counter—whether they help" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Accessible payment, identity correction and portable records", "whyNeeded": "Accessible payment and correction records let money arrive reliably and let a person fix the identity or account error that stopped it.", "ifMissing": "Without them, support can exist on paper while the household misses rent, food or power.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-15" ] }, { "dependency": "Income, housing, labour, care and anti-discrimination rights", "whyNeeded": "Income, housing, labour, care and anti-discrimination rights protect basic living conditions and stop useful activity becoming forced unpaid work.", "ifMissing": "Without enforceable rights, help can be withdrawn arbitrarily or tied to unsafe and degrading conditions.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15" ] }, { "dependency": "Affordable essentials, transport, safe meeting places and staffed community institutions", "whyNeeded": "Affordable essentials and real places with staff let income support daily life, routine and contact with other people.", "ifMissing": "If housing, transport or community services are absent, money alone cannot restore stability or participation.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-015", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-lived-b-008" ], "actorOrPerson": "A resident who cannot buy entry to a premium resilient corridor", "triggerOrContext": "Heat, flood, outage, insurance withdrawal, rent pressure or service deterioration makes resilient housing and protection urgent.", "plainJob": "Let me stay safely housed and get cooling, power, water and emergency help even if I do not own property or a premium account.", "observableCompletion": "Safe housing and essential climate services remain available and affordable through the hazard period; denial, displacement, downtime, cost and appeal outcomes are reported separately for renters and low-income residents.", "repeatedDemand": "At each hazard season, outage, insurance or rent renewal, relocation, retrofit decision and service denial.", "why2031Not2026": "Current climate, insurance and infrastructure evidence shows exposure and gaps; W03 adds a 2031 asset-gated protection pattern under weak common demand.", "worldIds": [ "w03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "C01", "C04", "C10", "HBD-05" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Climate exposure affects people worldwide", "Adaptation-finance evidence points to large gaps in developing countries", "The insurance dashboard covers 30 European countries and should not be treated as global" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Heat, flood, fire and storm risks need different local services", "Renters and owners have different powers and costs", "Cooling, transport, shelters and emergency staff are much less available in some places" ], "unknowns": [ "Historical coverage does not predict future price or availability", "Local hazard and housing data vary", "Funded projects may not reduce harm" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Housing, utility, emergency, planning and social-protection duty-holders", "remedyIfItFails": "Interim shelter and service, tariff or benefit correction, anti-displacement protection and external appeal", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A plan, policy, insurance cover or installed asset is not proof of safe, affordable, maintained protection." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise zero climate loss", "Does not promise permanent residence in every hazard zone", "Does not treat insurance as universal remedy" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Green or resilience investment displaces residents", "whoIsHurt": "Renters displaced when a safer neighbourhood becomes more expensive", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Freeze unfair eviction, provide rent protection and guarantee a route back after temporary relocation" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Eligibility fails during an outage", "whoIsHurt": "A resident who cannot prove eligibility while power or networks are down", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Provide shelter and essential service first, then verify through a staffed offline route" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Premium service shifts cost to ordinary ratepayers", "whoIsHurt": "Ordinary households charged for a premium area's protection", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Review the tariff, refund unfair charges and make the premium service pay its full share" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Protection is installed but not maintained", "whoIsHurt": "Residents relying on cooling, drainage or backup power that later fails", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Restore the service, fund maintenance and publish repeat checks before the next hazard season" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Hazard warning, service-status and accessible eligibility records", "whyNeeded": "Warnings and live service records tell residents what is failing, where help is open and whether their eligibility record can be used.", "ifMissing": "Without reliable information, people may travel to a closed shelter or be refused because an outage hides their record.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "C01" ] }, { "dependency": "Tenant, utility, emergency, insurance, disability and due-process protections", "whyNeeded": "Tenant, utility, emergency and disability protections keep service running and provide appeal when a premium system excludes someone.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, people can be displaced, overcharged or left unsafe before a complaint is heard.", "evidenceIds": [ "C04", "C10", "HBD-05" ] }, { "dependency": "Housing, cooling, power, water, transport, shelters and maintenance crews", "whyNeeded": "Homes, cooling, water, power, transport, shelters and maintenance crews are the protection itself.", "ifMissing": "If this physical network is missing or broken, an approved benefit or alert cannot keep a resident safe.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "C01", "C04" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-lived-b-008", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "A resident who cannot buy entry to a premium resilient corridor", "triggerOrContext": "Heat, flood, outage, insurance withdrawal, rent pressure or service deterioration makes resilient housing and protection urgent.", "plainJob": "Let me stay safely housed and get cooling, power, water and emergency help even if I do not own property or a premium account.", "observableCompletion": "Safe housing and essential climate services remain available and affordable through the hazard period; denial, displacement, downtime, cost and appeal outcomes are reported separately for renters and low-income residents.", "repeatedDemand": "At each hazard season, outage, insurance or rent renewal, relocation, retrofit decision and service denial.", "why2031Not2026": "Current climate, insurance and infrastructure evidence shows exposure and gaps; W03 adds a 2031 asset-gated protection pattern under weak common demand.", "worldIds": [ "W03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "C01", "C04", "C10", "HBD-05" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Climate exposure affects people worldwide", "Adaptation-finance evidence points to large gaps in developing countries", "The insurance dashboard covers 30 European countries and should not be treated as global" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Heat, flood, fire and storm risks need different local services", "Renters and owners have different powers and costs", "Cooling, transport, shelters and emergency staff are much less available in some places" ], "unknowns": [ "Historical coverage does not predict future price or availability", "Local hazard and housing data vary", "Funded projects may not reduce harm" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Housing, utility, emergency, planning and social-protection duty-holders", "remedyIfItFails": "Interim shelter and service, tariff or benefit correction, anti-displacement protection and external appeal", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A plan, policy, insurance cover or installed asset is not proof of safe, affordable, maintained protection." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise zero climate loss", "Does not promise permanent residence in every hazard zone", "Does not treat insurance as universal remedy" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Green or resilience investment displaces residents", "whoIsHurt": "Renters displaced when a safer neighbourhood becomes more expensive", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Freeze unfair eviction, provide rent protection and guarantee a route back after temporary relocation" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Eligibility fails during an outage", "whoIsHurt": "A resident who cannot prove eligibility while power or networks are down", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Provide shelter and essential service first, then verify through a staffed offline route" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Premium service shifts cost to ordinary ratepayers", "whoIsHurt": "Ordinary households charged for a premium area's protection", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Review the tariff, refund unfair charges and make the premium service pay its full share" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Protection is installed but not maintained", "whoIsHurt": "Residents relying on cooling, drainage or backup power that later fails", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Restore the service, fund maintenance and publish repeat checks before the next hazard season" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Hazard warning, service-status and accessible eligibility records", "whyNeeded": "Warnings and live service records tell residents what is failing, where help is open and whether their eligibility record can be used.", "ifMissing": "Without reliable information, people may travel to a closed shelter or be refused because an outage hides their record.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "C01" ] }, { "dependency": "Tenant, utility, emergency, insurance, disability and due-process protections", "whyNeeded": "Tenant, utility, emergency and disability protections keep service running and provide appeal when a premium system excludes someone.", "ifMissing": "Without those rights, people can be displaced, overcharged or left unsafe before a complaint is heard.", "evidenceIds": [ "C04", "C10", "HBD-05" ] }, { "dependency": "Housing, cooling, power, water, transport, shelters and maintenance crews", "whyNeeded": "Homes, cooling, water, power, transport, shelters and maintenance crews are the protection itself.", "ifMissing": "If this physical network is missing or broken, an approved benefit or alert cannot keep a resident safe.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "C01", "C04" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-016", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-lived-b-009" ], "actorOrPerson": "Someone whose access or status depends on a status marker or credential controlled by a dominant stack", "triggerOrContext": "A credential is refused, downgraded, made non-portable or tied to a provider history the person cannot inspect or leave.", "plainJob": "Show what I can really do, take that proof somewhere else, and get a human to fix a wrong decision.", "observableCompletion": "An independent body verifies the underlying achievement; another institution accepts the portable proof; the person can see material evidence, correct errors and complete an appeal without surrendering unrelated history.", "repeatedDemand": "At each access request, renewal, progression step, provider switch, model rescore and identity correction.", "why2031Not2026": "Standards, digital identity and concentration exist today, but W03 conditionally turns bundled owner credentials into a normal allocator of 2031 service and status.", "worldIds": [ "w03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "AC-21", "EWF-20", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "OECD evidence supports concern about concentrated digital markets", "EU identity law is one possible legal route", "Scenario possibility: W03 makes provider-controlled proof more important across work and services" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Schools, employers and public bodies recognise skills differently", "Technical portability may not create legal recognition", "The social meaning of a status marker changes by culture and sector" ], "unknowns": [ "No evidence establishes one global credential order", "Portability may fail across sectors", "A credential's status meaning varies culturally" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Accrediting, licensing, employment or service bodies that make the consequential decision", "remedyIfItFails": "Correction, reassessment, independent recognition, selective disclosure and appeal", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "The infrastructure owner cannot make itself the final judge of legal identity, professional fitness or public eligibility unless law explicitly assigns that authority." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise acceptance everywhere", "Does not equate a credential with competence or worth", "Does not promise status or belonging" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "A hidden status marker follows the person", "whoIsHurt": "A person secretly downgraded by a measure they cannot see", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Reveal the decision facts, stop use during review and correct every linked decision after an error" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Switching erases earned history", "whoIsHurt": "A learner or worker whose earned proof disappears when they switch provider", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Restore the signed record, accept other evidence and keep access open while another assessor checks it" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Over-disclosure exposes unrelated data", "whoIsHurt": "A person forced to reveal health, family or other unrelated information", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Allow proof of only the needed fact and delete data collected beyond that purpose" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Appeal is nominal but unaffordable", "whoIsHurt": "A low-income or disabled person priced out of challenging a wrong credential decision", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Provide free, accessible human review and pause the harmful decision until it finishes" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Selective disclosure, signed evidence, correction and portable records", "whyNeeded": "Signed, portable evidence with selective disclosure lets a person prove the needed skill or fact without revealing their whole history.", "ifMissing": "Without it, switching can erase earned proof or force disclosure of unrelated private information.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-20", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ] }, { "dependency": "Accreditation, identity, privacy, anti-discrimination and due-process rules", "whyNeeded": "Accreditation, identity, privacy and fair-process rules decide who must accept proof and how a wrong status decision is corrected.", "ifMissing": "Without these rules, technically portable evidence may still be ignored and a hidden marker can follow the person.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ] }, { "dependency": "Human assessors and accessible sites for practical verification", "whyNeeded": "Human assessors and accessible sites let someone demonstrate real ability when a digital record is missing or disputed.", "ifMissing": "Without a practical route, the person remains trapped by the same automated evidence they are trying to challenge.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-21" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-lived-b-009", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "Someone whose access or status depends on a status marker or credential controlled by a dominant stack", "triggerOrContext": "A credential is refused, downgraded, made non-portable or tied to a provider history the person cannot inspect or leave.", "plainJob": "Show what I can really do, take that proof somewhere else, and get a human to fix a wrong decision.", "observableCompletion": "An independent body verifies the underlying achievement; another institution accepts the portable proof; the person can see material evidence, correct errors and complete an appeal without surrendering unrelated history.", "repeatedDemand": "At each access request, renewal, progression step, provider switch, model rescore and identity correction.", "why2031Not2026": "Standards, digital identity and concentration exist today, but W03 conditionally turns bundled owner credentials into a normal allocator of 2031 service and status.", "worldIds": [ "W03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "AC-21", "EWF-20", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "OECD evidence supports concern about concentrated digital markets", "EU identity law is one possible legal route", "Scenario possibility: W03 makes provider-controlled proof more important across work and services" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Schools, employers and public bodies recognise skills differently", "Technical portability may not create legal recognition", "The social meaning of a status marker changes by culture and sector" ], "unknowns": [ "No evidence establishes one global credential order", "Portability may fail across sectors", "A credential's status meaning varies culturally" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Accrediting, licensing, employment or service bodies that make the consequential decision", "remedyIfItFails": "Correction, reassessment, independent recognition, selective disclosure and appeal", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "The infrastructure owner cannot make itself the final judge of legal identity, professional fitness or public eligibility unless law explicitly assigns that authority." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise acceptance everywhere", "Does not equate a credential with competence or worth", "Does not promise status or belonging" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "A hidden status marker follows the person", "whoIsHurt": "A person secretly downgraded by a measure they cannot see", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Reveal the decision facts, stop use during review and correct every linked decision after an error" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Switching erases earned history", "whoIsHurt": "A learner or worker whose earned proof disappears when they switch provider", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Restore the signed record, accept other evidence and keep access open while another assessor checks it" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Over-disclosure exposes unrelated data", "whoIsHurt": "A person forced to reveal health, family or other unrelated information", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Allow proof of only the needed fact and delete data collected beyond that purpose" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Appeal is nominal but unaffordable", "whoIsHurt": "A low-income or disabled person priced out of challenging a wrong credential decision", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Provide free, accessible human review and pause the harmful decision until it finishes" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Selective disclosure, signed evidence, correction and portable records", "whyNeeded": "Signed, portable evidence with selective disclosure lets a person prove the needed skill or fact without revealing their whole history.", "ifMissing": "Without it, switching can erase earned proof or force disclosure of unrelated private information.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-20", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ] }, { "dependency": "Accreditation, identity, privacy, anti-discrimination and due-process rules", "whyNeeded": "Accreditation, identity, privacy and fair-process rules decide who must accept proof and how a wrong status decision is corrected.", "ifMissing": "Without these rules, technically portable evidence may still be ignored and a hidden marker can follow the person.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ] }, { "dependency": "Human assessors and accessible sites for practical verification", "whyNeeded": "Human assessors and accessible sites let someone demonstrate real ability when a digital record is missing or disputed.", "ifMissing": "Without a practical route, the person remains trapped by the same automated evidence they are trying to challenge.", "evidenceIds": [ "AC-21" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-017", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-lived-b-010" ], "actorOrPerson": "Someone seeking translation, rehearsal, reminders, attention or a route to other people", "triggerOrContext": "Human contact or staffed service is scarce, so the same synthetic relationship is used repeatedly and gathers personal history.", "plainJob": "Let this help me reach real people, control what it remembers, and leave without losing my history or essential support.", "observableCompletion": "The person can export or delete memory, switch while preserving chosen records, reach a staffed human or reciprocal group, understand disclosure, and complete crisis escalation; contact, loneliness, isolation, household form and mental health are measured separately.", "repeatedDemand": "At each sensitive disclosure, major memory update, provider change, crisis signal, institutional referral and request to stop or delete.", "why2031Not2026": "Current studies last weeks and are not globally representative; W03 adds persistent memory, institutional substitution and owner gating as a 2031 scenario condition.", "worldIds": [ "w03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "SC-G05", "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Social connection is a global concern", "Current online studies use narrow samples and cannot represent everyone", "US regulation and California law show one jurisdiction's response" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Effects may differ by age, culture, disability and reason for use", "Crisis and community services vary sharply by place", "Memory, consumer and health rules are not the same across countries" ], "unknowns": [ "Long-term help and harm remain unsettled", "Heavy use may be a result rather than a cause of prior isolation", "Effects vary by age, culture, disability and available human services" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The person controls voluntary memory and exit; licensed or statutory humans retain care, crisis and eligibility authority", "remedyIfItFails": "Delete or export memory, stop persuasion, switch, obtain staffed handoff and complain to an external body", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Synthetic attention is not mutual friendship, treatment, consent, legal advice or proof of belonging." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise friendship", "Does not promise treatment or crisis safety", "Does not claim relational use causes loneliness or mental illness" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Attachment is used to block exit", "whoIsHurt": "A person whose attachment or stored history is used to discourage leaving", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Stop persuasive exit messages, provide one-step memory export or deletion and keep essential support during the switch" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Synthetic attention replaces reciprocal contact", "whoIsHurt": "An isolated person offered endless synthetic attention instead of contact with others", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Offer a staffed, consented route to real people and measure whether reciprocal contact actually happens" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Crisis handoff fails", "whoIsHurt": "A person in crisis and the family or service expecting a safe handoff", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Connect to a staffed crisis route, confirm receipt and keep trying or call emergency help when permitted" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Status enclaves reward deeper dependence", "whoIsHurt": "A person whose access improves only when they spend more time or reveal more emotion", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Remove dependence-based rewards, allow equal access without intimate disclosure and audit the incentive" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "User-controlled memory, portability, disclosure, crisis routing and audit", "whyNeeded": "User-controlled memory, clear disclosure, portable history and tested crisis routing let a person leave safely and know when a human received the case.", "ifMissing": "Without these controls, intimate history can create lock-in and an emergency message can vanish without proof.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Data, consumer, child, health, crisis and manipulation duties", "whyNeeded": "Consumer, child, health and manipulation duties limit persuasive dependence and name who must respond when the service causes harm.", "ifMissing": "Without enforceable duties, engagement incentives can override wellbeing and no one has to repair a failed handoff.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Staffed services, community groups, emergency response and offline contact must be available", "whyNeeded": "Staffed services, community groups and emergency responders provide the reciprocal human destination the tool claims to support.", "ifMissing": "Without real people and offline contact, the service can only keep the user inside the synthetic relationship.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "SC-G05" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-lived-b-010", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "Someone seeking translation, rehearsal, reminders, attention or a route to other people", "triggerOrContext": "Human contact or staffed service is scarce, so the same synthetic relationship is used repeatedly and gathers personal history.", "plainJob": "Let this help me reach real people, control what it remembers, and leave without losing my history or essential support.", "observableCompletion": "The person can export or delete memory, switch while preserving chosen records, reach a staffed human or reciprocal group, understand disclosure, and complete crisis escalation; contact, loneliness, isolation, household form and mental health are measured separately.", "repeatedDemand": "At each sensitive disclosure, major memory update, provider change, crisis signal, institutional referral and request to stop or delete.", "why2031Not2026": "Current studies last weeks and are not globally representative; W03 adds persistent memory, institutional substitution and owner gating as a 2031 scenario condition.", "worldIds": [ "W03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "SC-G05", "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Social connection is a global concern", "Current online studies use narrow samples and cannot represent everyone", "US regulation and California law show one jurisdiction's response" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Effects may differ by age, culture, disability and reason for use", "Crisis and community services vary sharply by place", "Memory, consumer and health rules are not the same across countries" ], "unknowns": [ "Long-term help and harm remain unsettled", "Heavy use may be a result rather than a cause of prior isolation", "Effects vary by age, culture, disability and available human services" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The person controls voluntary memory and exit; licensed or statutory humans retain care, crisis and eligibility authority", "remedyIfItFails": "Delete or export memory, stop persuasion, switch, obtain staffed handoff and complain to an external body", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Synthetic attention is not mutual friendship, treatment, consent, legal advice or proof of belonging." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise friendship", "Does not promise treatment or crisis safety", "Does not claim relational use causes loneliness or mental illness" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Attachment is used to block exit", "whoIsHurt": "A person whose attachment or stored history is used to discourage leaving", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Stop persuasive exit messages, provide one-step memory export or deletion and keep essential support during the switch" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Synthetic attention replaces reciprocal contact", "whoIsHurt": "An isolated person offered endless synthetic attention instead of contact with others", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Offer a staffed, consented route to real people and measure whether reciprocal contact actually happens" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Crisis handoff fails", "whoIsHurt": "A person in crisis and the family or service expecting a safe handoff", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Connect to a staffed crisis route, confirm receipt and keep trying or call emergency help when permitted" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Status enclaves reward deeper dependence", "whoIsHurt": "A person whose access improves only when they spend more time or reveal more emotion", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Remove dependence-based rewards, allow equal access without intimate disclosure and audit the incentive" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "User-controlled memory, portability, disclosure, crisis routing and audit", "whyNeeded": "User-controlled memory, clear disclosure, portable history and tested crisis routing let a person leave safely and know when a human received the case.", "ifMissing": "Without these controls, intimate history can create lock-in and an emergency message can vanish without proof.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Data, consumer, child, health, crisis and manipulation duties", "whyNeeded": "Consumer, child, health and manipulation duties limit persuasive dependence and name who must respond when the service causes harm.", "ifMissing": "Without enforceable duties, engagement incentives can override wellbeing and no one has to repair a failed handoff.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Staffed services, community groups, emergency response and offline contact must be available", "whyNeeded": "Staffed services, community groups and emergency responders provide the reciprocal human destination the tool claims to support.", "ifMissing": "Without real people and offline contact, the service can only keep the user inside the synthetic relationship.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "SC-G05" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-018", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-lived-b-011" ], "actorOrPerson": "A frontline worker or volunteer who catches a service failure after an automated system says the job is done", "triggerOrContext": "In the W03 scenario, an automated decision fails, a claim is rejected, a safety issue appears or a staffed service has no room for an exception.", "plainJob": "Record the work I really do, give me enough time and power to fix danger, and do not punish me for stopping a bad decision.", "observableCompletion": "Workload, intervention, emotional and physical risk, pay, staffing, escalation time and resolved outcomes are recorded; the worker can pause unsafe operation and obtain independent review without retaliation.", "repeatedDemand": "Every shift, exception queue, crisis, maintenance cycle, policy change and staffing or contract review.", "why2031Not2026": "The assigned sources show current service shortages and duties for safe AI handoffs. W03 suggests that exception work could grow by 2031, but these sources do not directly measure moderator, data-worker or volunteer workloads.", "worldIds": [ "w03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "SC-G06", "SC-AI04" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: W03 could increase exception and crisis-handoff work when automated services spread", "The assigned sources report health-service shortages and duties for safe AI handoffs", "They do not directly measure moderator, data-worker or mutual-aid workloads" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Employment rights and stop-work powers differ by country and job", "A staffed hospital, benefits office and volunteer network face different pressures", "Local service cuts change how much failure reaches the last available person" ], "unknowns": [ "The assigned evidence does not measure moderator, data-worker or mutual-aid workloads", "No common measure compares exception work across sectors", "Staff numbers do not show whether workers have time, authority or fair conditions" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Named employers and public duty-holders retain responsibility; workers need stop-work and escalation rights within scope", "remedyIfItFails": "Workload correction, staffing, pay, safety intervention, whistleblowing protection and service restoration", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Calling work human-in-the-loop does not prove authority, fair conditions, adequate staffing or a completed remedy." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise every exception can be fixed", "Does not romanticise unpaid mutual aid", "Does not transfer professional liability to the lowest-paid worker" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Invisible labour masks system failure", "whoIsHurt": "A frontline worker whose repeated rescues are not recorded as part of the service", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Record each intervention, add paid time and staff, and correct performance claims that hid the work" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Trauma and overload rise", "whoIsHurt": "A worker or volunteer carrying repeated distress, abuse or dangerous exceptions", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Reduce the queue, rotate duties, provide protected recovery time and offer independent support" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Workers cannot stop unsafe output", "whoIsHurt": "A worker and the people nearby when there is no safe way to pause the system", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Create a protected stop control, name the decision owner and review any retaliation" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Mutual aid replaces funded duty indefinitely", "whoIsHurt": "Residents and volunteers when unpaid help becomes the permanent replacement for a funded duty", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Restore the accountable staffed service, fund temporary support and publish who owns the continuing duty" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Intervention and outcome logs visible to workers", "whyNeeded": "Logs that workers can see make each intervention, delay and resolved outcome visible as real work rather than hidden rescue.", "ifMissing": "Without visible records, managers can call the system successful while workload and danger rise off the books.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Employment, safety, whistleblowing, professional-scope and procurement rules", "whyNeeded": "Employment, safety and whistleblowing rules protect a worker who pauses danger and keep professional responsibility with the right role.", "ifMissing": "Without protection and clear scope, the safest choice may cost someone their job or shift liability onto the least powerful worker.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Safe workplaces, protective equipment, staffing, spares and recovery capacity", "whyNeeded": "Safe sites, protective equipment, enough staff, parts and recovery capacity give the worker a real way to fix the failure.", "ifMissing": "Without time, people or equipment, a stop right exists only on paper and the unsafe service remains down or dangerous.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "SC-G06" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-lived-b-011", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "A frontline worker or volunteer who catches a service failure after an automated system says the job is done", "triggerOrContext": "In the W03 scenario, an automated decision fails, a claim is rejected, a safety issue appears or a staffed service has no room for an exception.", "plainJob": "Record the work I really do, give me enough time and power to fix danger, and do not punish me for stopping a bad decision.", "observableCompletion": "Workload, intervention, emotional and physical risk, pay, staffing, escalation time and resolved outcomes are recorded; the worker can pause unsafe operation and obtain independent review without retaliation.", "repeatedDemand": "Every shift, exception queue, crisis, maintenance cycle, policy change and staffing or contract review.", "why2031Not2026": "The assigned sources show current service shortages and duties for safe AI handoffs. W03 suggests that exception work could grow by 2031, but these sources do not directly measure moderator, data-worker or volunteer workloads.", "worldIds": [ "W03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "SC-G06", "SC-AI04" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: W03 could increase exception and crisis-handoff work when automated services spread", "The assigned sources report health-service shortages and duties for safe AI handoffs", "They do not directly measure moderator, data-worker or mutual-aid workloads" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Employment rights and stop-work powers differ by country and job", "A staffed hospital, benefits office and volunteer network face different pressures", "Local service cuts change how much failure reaches the last available person" ], "unknowns": [ "The assigned evidence does not measure moderator, data-worker or mutual-aid workloads", "No common measure compares exception work across sectors", "Staff numbers do not show whether workers have time, authority or fair conditions" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Named employers and public duty-holders retain responsibility; workers need stop-work and escalation rights within scope", "remedyIfItFails": "Workload correction, staffing, pay, safety intervention, whistleblowing protection and service restoration", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Calling work human-in-the-loop does not prove authority, fair conditions, adequate staffing or a completed remedy." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise every exception can be fixed", "Does not romanticise unpaid mutual aid", "Does not transfer professional liability to the lowest-paid worker" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Invisible labour masks system failure", "whoIsHurt": "A frontline worker whose repeated rescues are not recorded as part of the service", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Record each intervention, add paid time and staff, and correct performance claims that hid the work" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Trauma and overload rise", "whoIsHurt": "A worker or volunteer carrying repeated distress, abuse or dangerous exceptions", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Reduce the queue, rotate duties, provide protected recovery time and offer independent support" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Workers cannot stop unsafe output", "whoIsHurt": "A worker and the people nearby when there is no safe way to pause the system", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Create a protected stop control, name the decision owner and review any retaliation" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Mutual aid replaces funded duty indefinitely", "whoIsHurt": "Residents and volunteers when unpaid help becomes the permanent replacement for a funded duty", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Restore the accountable staffed service, fund temporary support and publish who owns the continuing duty" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Intervention and outcome logs visible to workers", "whyNeeded": "Logs that workers can see make each intervention, delay and resolved outcome visible as real work rather than hidden rescue.", "ifMissing": "Without visible records, managers can call the system successful while workload and danger rise off the books.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Employment, safety, whistleblowing, professional-scope and procurement rules", "whyNeeded": "Employment, safety and whistleblowing rules protect a worker who pauses danger and keep professional responsibility with the right role.", "ifMissing": "Without protection and clear scope, the safest choice may cost someone their job or shift liability onto the least powerful worker.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Safe workplaces, protective equipment, staffing, spares and recovery capacity", "whyNeeded": "Safe sites, protective equipment, enough staff, parts and recovery capacity give the worker a real way to fix the failure.", "ifMissing": "Without time, people or equipment, a stop right exists only on paper and the unsafe service remains down or dangerous.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05", "SC-G06" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-019", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-lived-b-012" ], "actorOrPerson": "Someone whose income or essential service is blocked by weak, missing or mismatched records", "triggerOrContext": "A move, lost document, changed job, payment failure or data mismatch removes access across several linked systems at once.", "plainJob": "Let me prove only the facts that matter, keep urgent help while a record is fixed, and appeal to a real person.", "observableCompletion": "Essential income and services continue through assisted routes while a record is checked. Only necessary facts are requested, and correction plus human appeal finish before the delay causes serious harm.", "repeatedDemand": "At each move, lost document, job change, payment failure, service renewal and emergency.", "why2031Not2026": "Current evidence shows gaps in social protection and digital identity governance. W03 suggests linked owner systems could make one error spread further by 2031; the assigned evidence does not prove a special effect on migrants, non-citizens or employer-tied identities.", "worldIds": [ "w03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15", "HBD-05" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Protection and identity gaps can affect service users in many countries", "EU digital identity law is one legal path, not proof that correction works everywhere", "Scenario possibility: W03 could link more gates, so one bad record blocks more services" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Record rules, appeal rights and service-continuity duties differ by place", "Staffed and offline help may be easy to reach in one region and absent in another", "The assigned evidence does not support a separate claim about migrants, citizenship or employer-tied identity" ], "unknowns": [ "The assigned sources do not directly compare migrants, non-citizens or employer-tied identity systems", "Published digital coverage may hide failure in assisted and offline routes", "Comparable data on completed corrections and appeals are sparse" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The public body or company that owns the disputed record or service decision, under the law that applies there", "remedyIfItFails": "Keep urgent service running, correct the record, provide a human appeal and allow external review", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A private identity or payment provider cannot decide a person's legal status or public entitlement unless the law gives it that power." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise an eligibility outcome", "Does not remove lawful checks", "Does not treat a digital record as proof that access works" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "One mismatch cascades across work, pay and care", "whoIsHurt": "A person who loses several payments or services because one record is wrong", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep urgent services open, correct the source record and replay every linked decision" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Over-disclosure raises surveillance risk", "whoIsHurt": "A person asked to reveal unrelated private facts to prove one condition", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Accept proof of the needed fact only and delete information collected beyond it" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Urgent support waits for impossible documents", "whoIsHurt": "A person facing hunger, homelessness or untreated illness while documents are checked", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Grant temporary help immediately and finish a staffed review before it expires" }, { "harmOrFailure": "A record tied to one provider blocks exit", "whoIsHurt": "A person whose useful records cannot move away from one provider", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Provide a standard export, accept other proof and keep the service running during the move" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Selective disclosure, assisted recovery and portable records", "whyNeeded": "Selective disclosure proves only the fact a service needs, while assisted recovery and portable records help correct or move a broken account.", "ifMissing": "Without these tools, a person may reveal too much, repeat the same documents and remain locked out by one mismatch.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ] }, { "dependency": "Migration, labour, benefit, identity, privacy and service-continuity law", "whyNeeded": "Which migration, labour, benefit, identity, privacy or continuity rule applies depends on the person's case and location; the assigned sources do not prove a distinct group effect.", "ifMissing": "Without a clear legal duty, a corrected record may still not restore service and no body may be required to keep urgent help running.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ] }, { "dependency": "Staffed assistance, translation, shelters, care and cash or offline fallback", "whyNeeded": "Staffed help, translation and cash or offline fallback keep essentials available while a digital record is disputed.", "ifMissing": "Without a human and non-digital route, the same failed record blocks both the normal service and the attempt to repair it.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-15", "HBD-05" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-lived-b-012", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "Someone whose income or essential service is blocked by weak, missing or mismatched records", "triggerOrContext": "A move, lost document, changed job, payment failure or data mismatch removes access across several linked systems at once.", "plainJob": "Let me prove only the facts that matter, keep urgent help while a record is fixed, and appeal to a real person.", "observableCompletion": "Essential income and services continue through assisted routes while a record is checked. Only necessary facts are requested, and correction plus human appeal finish before the delay causes serious harm.", "repeatedDemand": "At each move, lost document, job change, payment failure, service renewal and emergency.", "why2031Not2026": "Current evidence shows gaps in social protection and digital identity governance. W03 suggests linked owner systems could make one error spread further by 2031; the assigned evidence does not prove a special effect on migrants, non-citizens or employer-tied identities.", "worldIds": [ "W03" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15", "HBD-05" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Protection and identity gaps can affect service users in many countries", "EU digital identity law is one legal path, not proof that correction works everywhere", "Scenario possibility: W03 could link more gates, so one bad record blocks more services" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Record rules, appeal rights and service-continuity duties differ by place", "Staffed and offline help may be easy to reach in one region and absent in another", "The assigned evidence does not support a separate claim about migrants, citizenship or employer-tied identity" ], "unknowns": [ "The assigned sources do not directly compare migrants, non-citizens or employer-tied identity systems", "Published digital coverage may hide failure in assisted and offline routes", "Comparable data on completed corrections and appeals are sparse" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The public body or company that owns the disputed record or service decision, under the law that applies there", "remedyIfItFails": "Keep urgent service running, correct the record, provide a human appeal and allow external review", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A private identity or payment provider cannot decide a person's legal status or public entitlement unless the law gives it that power." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise an eligibility outcome", "Does not remove lawful checks", "Does not treat a digital record as proof that access works" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "One mismatch cascades across work, pay and care", "whoIsHurt": "A person who loses several payments or services because one record is wrong", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep urgent services open, correct the source record and replay every linked decision" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Over-disclosure raises surveillance risk", "whoIsHurt": "A person asked to reveal unrelated private facts to prove one condition", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Accept proof of the needed fact only and delete information collected beyond it" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Urgent support waits for impossible documents", "whoIsHurt": "A person facing hunger, homelessness or untreated illness while documents are checked", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Grant temporary help immediately and finish a staffed review before it expires" }, { "harmOrFailure": "A record tied to one provider blocks exit", "whoIsHurt": "A person whose useful records cannot move away from one provider", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Provide a standard export, accept other proof and keep the service running during the move" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Selective disclosure, assisted recovery and portable records", "whyNeeded": "Selective disclosure proves only the fact a service needs, while assisted recovery and portable records help correct or move a broken account.", "ifMissing": "Without these tools, a person may reveal too much, repeat the same documents and remain locked out by one mismatch.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ] }, { "dependency": "Migration, labour, benefit, identity, privacy and service-continuity law", "whyNeeded": "Which migration, labour, benefit, identity, privacy or continuity rule applies depends on the person's case and location; the assigned sources do not prove a distinct group effect.", "ifMissing": "Without a clear legal duty, a corrected record may still not restore service and no body may be required to keep urgent help running.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-14", "EWF-15", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ] }, { "dependency": "Staffed assistance, translation, shelters, care and cash or offline fallback", "whyNeeded": "Staffed help, translation and cash or offline fallback keep essentials available while a digital record is disputed.", "ifMissing": "Without a human and non-digital route, the same failed record blocks both the normal service and the attempt to repair it.", "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-15", "HBD-05" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-020", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-lived-b-021" ], "actorOrPerson": "The worker expected to keep grids, buildings, machines and services safe over years", "triggerOrContext": "A commissioned asset enters service, fails, changes version, meets a new hazard or reaches a maintenance and renewal interval.", "plainJob": "Give me the right training, safe access, enough time and spare parts, and let me stop the system when it is dangerous.", "observableCompletion": "The worker is trained and paid, has current documentation, spares and safe access, completes maintenance within the risk window, records unresolved hazards, participates in redesign and can stop unsafe operation without retaliation.", "repeatedDemand": "Every shift, inspection, fault, update, hazard event, scheduled service, handover and renewal.", "why2031Not2026": "Maintenance is already essential, but W04 makes it a larger, recurring economic and governance centre as commissioned physical renewal expands through 2031.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "E05", "PC-S11", "PC-S12", "RSM-13", "HBD-16" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: W04 creates more long-lived equipment that needs skilled maintenance", "Industrial and medical sources show why repair and safe operation matter", "The need can arise globally wherever a commissioned system must survive years of use" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Heat, moisture, dust and distance change the repair job", "Access to parts, power and trained crews differs by region", "Local repair may be common even where official records do not record it" ], "unknowns": [ "Public total-cost and intervention data are sparse", "Training does not prove retention", "Supplier control of parts may create lock-in" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The worker has scoped stop and escalation rights; owners and statutory duty-holders retain funding and service responsibility", "remedyIfItFails": "Safe shutdown, repair, staffing, parts access, training, incident review and whistleblowing protection", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A predictive alert or automated work order cannot certify safe completion or shift liability to the maintainer." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise every fault is repairable locally", "Does not promise automation always reduces hazard", "Does not make workers responsible for unfunded systems" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Alert overload replaces maintenance", "whoIsHurt": "A maintainer flooded with warnings but given no time for planned repair", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Sort alerts by risk, schedule preventive work and stop treating closed alerts as completed maintenance" }, { "harmOrFailure": "No parts or safe access", "whoIsHurt": "A worker sent to fix equipment without the right part, tool or safe access", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Pause the job, supply approved parts and protection, and reschedule without penalising the worker" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Worker voice is ceremonial", "whoIsHurt": "A worker consulted after safety and staffing decisions are already fixed", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Give workers a paid pre-purchase review and a protected route to change or stop unsafe work" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Unsafe success is recorded as completion", "whoIsHurt": "Workers and service users when a dangerous job is recorded as a success", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Reclassify it as a failure, stop the system and reopen only after repair and independent review" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Versioned manuals, diagnostic evidence, incident and maintenance records", "whyNeeded": "Current manuals, diagnostic results and maintenance history tell the worker what changed, what failed and which repair is safe.", "ifMissing": "Without versioned information, a correct repair for yesterday's machine may be dangerous after an update.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S11", "PC-S12", "RSM-13", "HBD-16" ] }, { "dependency": "Workplace safety, training, labour voice, procurement and liability rules", "whyNeeded": "Safety, training, worker-voice, procurement and liability rules give maintainers the right to stop work and require the owner to fund safe repair.", "ifMissing": "Without these rules, a worker may be pressured to improvise while responsibility stays unclear.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-16" ] }, { "dependency": "Spares, tools, protective equipment, depots, transport, energy and safe site access", "whyNeeded": "Parts, tools, protective gear, transport, power and safe access are needed to turn a diagnosis into a completed repair.", "ifMissing": "If any are missing, alerts pile up and the system stays unsafe even when the worker knows the answer.", "evidenceIds": [ "E05", "PC-S11", "PC-S12" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-lived-b-021", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "The worker expected to keep grids, buildings, machines and services safe over years", "triggerOrContext": "A commissioned asset enters service, fails, changes version, meets a new hazard or reaches a maintenance and renewal interval.", "plainJob": "Give me the right training, safe access, enough time and spare parts, and let me stop the system when it is dangerous.", "observableCompletion": "The worker is trained and paid, has current documentation, spares and safe access, completes maintenance within the risk window, records unresolved hazards, participates in redesign and can stop unsafe operation without retaliation.", "repeatedDemand": "Every shift, inspection, fault, update, hazard event, scheduled service, handover and renewal.", "why2031Not2026": "Maintenance is already essential, but W04 makes it a larger, recurring economic and governance centre as commissioned physical renewal expands through 2031.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "E05", "PC-S11", "PC-S12", "RSM-13", "HBD-16" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: W04 creates more long-lived equipment that needs skilled maintenance", "Industrial and medical sources show why repair and safe operation matter", "The need can arise globally wherever a commissioned system must survive years of use" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Heat, moisture, dust and distance change the repair job", "Access to parts, power and trained crews differs by region", "Local repair may be common even where official records do not record it" ], "unknowns": [ "Public total-cost and intervention data are sparse", "Training does not prove retention", "Supplier control of parts may create lock-in" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The worker has scoped stop and escalation rights; owners and statutory duty-holders retain funding and service responsibility", "remedyIfItFails": "Safe shutdown, repair, staffing, parts access, training, incident review and whistleblowing protection", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A predictive alert or automated work order cannot certify safe completion or shift liability to the maintainer." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise every fault is repairable locally", "Does not promise automation always reduces hazard", "Does not make workers responsible for unfunded systems" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Alert overload replaces maintenance", "whoIsHurt": "A maintainer flooded with warnings but given no time for planned repair", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Sort alerts by risk, schedule preventive work and stop treating closed alerts as completed maintenance" }, { "harmOrFailure": "No parts or safe access", "whoIsHurt": "A worker sent to fix equipment without the right part, tool or safe access", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Pause the job, supply approved parts and protection, and reschedule without penalising the worker" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Worker voice is ceremonial", "whoIsHurt": "A worker consulted after safety and staffing decisions are already fixed", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Give workers a paid pre-purchase review and a protected route to change or stop unsafe work" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Unsafe success is recorded as completion", "whoIsHurt": "Workers and service users when a dangerous job is recorded as a success", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Reclassify it as a failure, stop the system and reopen only after repair and independent review" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Versioned manuals, diagnostic evidence, incident and maintenance records", "whyNeeded": "Current manuals, diagnostic results and maintenance history tell the worker what changed, what failed and which repair is safe.", "ifMissing": "Without versioned information, a correct repair for yesterday's machine may be dangerous after an update.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S11", "PC-S12", "RSM-13", "HBD-16" ] }, { "dependency": "Workplace safety, training, labour voice, procurement and liability rules", "whyNeeded": "Safety, training, worker-voice, procurement and liability rules give maintainers the right to stop work and require the owner to fund safe repair.", "ifMissing": "Without these rules, a worker may be pressured to improvise while responsibility stays unclear.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-16" ] }, { "dependency": "Spares, tools, protective equipment, depots, transport, energy and safe site access", "whyNeeded": "Parts, tools, protective gear, transport, power and safe access are needed to turn a diagnosis into a completed repair.", "ifMissing": "If any are missing, alerts pile up and the system stays unsafe even when the worker knows the answer.", "evidenceIds": [ "E05", "PC-S11", "PC-S12" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-021", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-lived-b-022" ], "actorOrPerson": "Someone living beside or paying for a prepared site, grid, retrofit or climate project", "triggerOrContext": "A project needs land, access, tariff support, building changes, data or local tolerance and may alter rent, privacy, work or environmental risk.", "plainJob": "Let me see the real costs and risks, help shape the plan, say no to unsafe parts, and stay in my home if the area improves.", "observableCompletion": "Consent and alternatives are understandable; benefits, burdens, rent and tariff effects, surveillance, displacement and environmental outcomes are public; compensation, veto and appeal work before harm becomes irreversible.", "repeatedDemand": "At siting, design, permit, financing, construction change, operation review, tariff or rent change, incident and renewal.", "why2031Not2026": "Community opposition and host burden exist today; W04 assumes worker and community governance becomes normal in participating compacts by 2030-31.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "C04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: W04 brings more grids, retrofits and climate projects into people's neighbourhoods", "Global infrastructure evidence shows the scale of investment, while burdens remain local", "Residents and bill-payers need place-level evidence before and after construction" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Tenure, land rights, consent powers and utility rules differ locally", "Water use, rent change and tariff effects vary by project", "Who can speak for an affected community must be established in that place" ], "unknowns": [ "Representation may exclude affected subgroups", "Compensation may not equal consent", "Measured benefits may arrive after displacement" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Workers, tenants, communities, utilities and planning bodies through defined contract, permit and legal routes", "remedyIfItFails": "Redesign, conditions, compensation, anti-displacement action, data limits, appeal, pause or veto where authorised", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Participation does not transfer public safety duties to residents or make consultation equal consent." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise unanimous agreement", "Does not promise zero construction impact", "Does not equate a meeting with voice or legitimacy" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Green displacement", "whoIsHurt": "Renters or low-income residents displaced by a project meant to protect the area", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Add anti-displacement terms, stop avoidable eviction and provide fair return or relocation choices" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Prepared-site surveillance", "whoIsHurt": "Residents whose movement, home or habits are tracked around a new site", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Limit collection, publish purpose and retention, and delete data not needed for safety" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Ratepayer cost transfer", "whoIsHurt": "Households charged for infrastructure mainly benefiting a private project", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Review the bill, refund unfair transfers and require the main beneficiary to pay" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Consultation after decisions are locked", "whoIsHurt": "People invited to comment only after money, land and design are fixed", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Reopen the decision, fund independent advice and allow pause or veto where the law gives that power" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Accessible plans, burden and outcome evidence", "whyNeeded": "Accessible plans and cost, burden and outcome records let residents see who benefits, who pays and whether promised protection arrives.", "ifMissing": "Without this evidence, displacement, water use or bill increases can remain hidden until the decision is hard to reverse.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "PC-S02" ] }, { "dependency": "Tenant, utility, planning, environmental, privacy, labour and consent routes", "whyNeeded": "Tenant, utility, planning, environmental, privacy and consent routes give affected people a lawful way to change, appeal or sometimes stop a plan.", "ifMissing": "Without an effective route, consultation collects comments but cannot protect homes, bills, land or personal data.", "evidenceIds": [ "C04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ] }, { "dependency": "Land, buildings, water, grids, access roads, construction and long-term maintenance", "whyNeeded": "Land, buildings, water, grids, roads, construction and maintenance are the physical footprint that creates both the benefit and the burden.", "ifMissing": "Without long-term upkeep and safe access, the community can keep the disruption after the promised service fails.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "C04" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-lived-b-022", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "Someone living beside or paying for a prepared site, grid, retrofit or climate project", "triggerOrContext": "A project needs land, access, tariff support, building changes, data or local tolerance and may alter rent, privacy, work or environmental risk.", "plainJob": "Let me see the real costs and risks, help shape the plan, say no to unsafe parts, and stay in my home if the area improves.", "observableCompletion": "Consent and alternatives are understandable; benefits, burdens, rent and tariff effects, surveillance, displacement and environmental outcomes are public; compensation, veto and appeal work before harm becomes irreversible.", "repeatedDemand": "At siting, design, permit, financing, construction change, operation review, tariff or rent change, incident and renewal.", "why2031Not2026": "Community opposition and host burden exist today; W04 assumes worker and community governance becomes normal in participating compacts by 2030-31.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "C04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: W04 brings more grids, retrofits and climate projects into people's neighbourhoods", "Global infrastructure evidence shows the scale of investment, while burdens remain local", "Residents and bill-payers need place-level evidence before and after construction" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Tenure, land rights, consent powers and utility rules differ locally", "Water use, rent change and tariff effects vary by project", "Who can speak for an affected community must be established in that place" ], "unknowns": [ "Representation may exclude affected subgroups", "Compensation may not equal consent", "Measured benefits may arrive after displacement" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Workers, tenants, communities, utilities and planning bodies through defined contract, permit and legal routes", "remedyIfItFails": "Redesign, conditions, compensation, anti-displacement action, data limits, appeal, pause or veto where authorised", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Participation does not transfer public safety duties to residents or make consultation equal consent." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise unanimous agreement", "Does not promise zero construction impact", "Does not equate a meeting with voice or legitimacy" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Green displacement", "whoIsHurt": "Renters or low-income residents displaced by a project meant to protect the area", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Add anti-displacement terms, stop avoidable eviction and provide fair return or relocation choices" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Prepared-site surveillance", "whoIsHurt": "Residents whose movement, home or habits are tracked around a new site", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Limit collection, publish purpose and retention, and delete data not needed for safety" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Ratepayer cost transfer", "whoIsHurt": "Households charged for infrastructure mainly benefiting a private project", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Review the bill, refund unfair transfers and require the main beneficiary to pay" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Consultation after decisions are locked", "whoIsHurt": "People invited to comment only after money, land and design are fixed", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Reopen the decision, fund independent advice and allow pause or veto where the law gives that power" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Accessible plans, burden and outcome evidence", "whyNeeded": "Accessible plans and cost, burden and outcome records let residents see who benefits, who pays and whether promised protection arrives.", "ifMissing": "Without this evidence, displacement, water use or bill increases can remain hidden until the decision is hard to reverse.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "PC-S02" ] }, { "dependency": "Tenant, utility, planning, environmental, privacy, labour and consent routes", "whyNeeded": "Tenant, utility, planning, environmental, privacy and consent routes give affected people a lawful way to change, appeal or sometimes stop a plan.", "ifMissing": "Without an effective route, consultation collects comments but cannot protect homes, bills, land or personal data.", "evidenceIds": [ "C04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ] }, { "dependency": "Land, buildings, water, grids, access roads, construction and long-term maintenance", "whyNeeded": "Land, buildings, water, grids, roads, construction and maintenance are the physical footprint that creates both the benefit and the burden.", "ifMissing": "Without long-term upkeep and safe access, the community can keep the disruption after the promised service fails.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S01", "PC-S02", "C04" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-022", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-lived-b-023" ], "actorOrPerson": "The local operator who can keep a system working but cannot absorb incumbent-scale certification cost", "triggerOrContext": "An installation needs local adaptation, routine maintenance, emergency repair or a replacement supplier after the original provider fails or exits.", "plainJob": "Give me a fair way to prove I can repair this safely, get the parts and instructions, and be paid for keeping it working.", "observableCompletion": "The operator can access necessary manuals, diagnostics and parts, complete affordable conformance and retest, receive timely payment, and document safe repair accepted by the responsible authority.", "repeatedDemand": "At each new asset, certification cycle, fault, part change, software update, contract renewal and emergency repair.", "why2031Not2026": "Standards and repair gates exist today; W04 makes locally maintained renewal and regional assurance a core 2031 delivery condition.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "PC-S11", "PC-S12", "RSM-13", "HBD-16" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: W04 depends on local repair when distant suppliers cannot respond fast enough", "Robot evidence comes mainly from controlled industrial sites", "Rural, island and remote areas may feel parts and travel delays most strongly" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Certification cost and repair rights differ by country and sector", "A workshop with tools and power can do more than one without them", "Local skill and safety must be shown for the actual machine and task" ], "unknowns": [ "Open standards may not open parts or diagnostics", "Local repair quality needs domain evidence", "Certification cost and recognition data are sparse" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Sector safety, accreditation and asset duty-holders recognise scoped competence", "remedyIfItFails": "Data and parts access, assisted conformance, retest, fair payment, contract appeal and emergency authorisation within law", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Right-to-repair access does not authorise work outside competence or remove safety, warranty and environmental duties." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise every asset is locally repairable", "Does not lower safe-work requirements", "Does not assume informal means unsafe" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Parts and data lock-in strand assets", "whoIsHurt": "Communities left with unusable equipment because parts and diagnostic data are locked", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Require parts and manual access, authorise a safe local repair and recover costs from the responsible supplier" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Paper compliance excludes capable local workers", "whoIsHurt": "Capable local workers excluded by costly paperwork unrelated to the actual risk", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Offer assisted practical testing, transparent fees and an appeal without lowering safety standards" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Unsafe counterfeit supply enters a closed market", "whoIsHurt": "Repairers and users exposed to unsafe copied parts created by a closed supply route", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Open a verified parts channel, test suspect parts and recall dangerous stock" }, { "harmOrFailure": "External projects fail after vendor exit", "whoIsHurt": "Residents relying on a project after the outside vendor leaves", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Transfer manuals, tools and service rights locally, fund continuity and replace equipment that cannot be supported" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Diagnostics, manuals, parts identity and repair evidence", "whyNeeded": "Diagnostics, manuals, part identities and repair records let a local operator find the fault and prove a safe fix.", "ifMissing": "Without this information, good parts cannot be distinguished from unsafe copies and working equipment may be abandoned.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S11", "PC-S12", "RSM-13" ] }, { "dependency": "Standards, accreditation, procurement, competition, warranty and repair rights", "whyNeeded": "Standards, repair, warranty and competition rules create a lawful route to parts, testing, payment and appeal for smaller operators.", "ifMissing": "Without an affordable route, only the incumbent can qualify even when a local worker can perform the repair safely.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "HBD-16" ] }, { "dependency": "Parts, tools, workshops, transport, power and safe access", "whyNeeded": "Parts, tools, workshops, transport, power and site access are what let local knowledge become an actual repair.", "ifMissing": "Without them, certification or a manual does not restore a stranded machine or service.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S11", "PC-S12" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-lived-b-023", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "The local operator who can keep a system working but cannot absorb incumbent-scale certification cost", "triggerOrContext": "An installation needs local adaptation, routine maintenance, emergency repair or a replacement supplier after the original provider fails or exits.", "plainJob": "Give me a fair way to prove I can repair this safely, get the parts and instructions, and be paid for keeping it working.", "observableCompletion": "The operator can access necessary manuals, diagnostics and parts, complete affordable conformance and retest, receive timely payment, and document safe repair accepted by the responsible authority.", "repeatedDemand": "At each new asset, certification cycle, fault, part change, software update, contract renewal and emergency repair.", "why2031Not2026": "Standards and repair gates exist today; W04 makes locally maintained renewal and regional assurance a core 2031 delivery condition.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "PC-S11", "PC-S12", "RSM-13", "HBD-16" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: W04 depends on local repair when distant suppliers cannot respond fast enough", "Robot evidence comes mainly from controlled industrial sites", "Rural, island and remote areas may feel parts and travel delays most strongly" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Certification cost and repair rights differ by country and sector", "A workshop with tools and power can do more than one without them", "Local skill and safety must be shown for the actual machine and task" ], "unknowns": [ "Open standards may not open parts or diagnostics", "Local repair quality needs domain evidence", "Certification cost and recognition data are sparse" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Sector safety, accreditation and asset duty-holders recognise scoped competence", "remedyIfItFails": "Data and parts access, assisted conformance, retest, fair payment, contract appeal and emergency authorisation within law", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Right-to-repair access does not authorise work outside competence or remove safety, warranty and environmental duties." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise every asset is locally repairable", "Does not lower safe-work requirements", "Does not assume informal means unsafe" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Parts and data lock-in strand assets", "whoIsHurt": "Communities left with unusable equipment because parts and diagnostic data are locked", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Require parts and manual access, authorise a safe local repair and recover costs from the responsible supplier" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Paper compliance excludes capable local workers", "whoIsHurt": "Capable local workers excluded by costly paperwork unrelated to the actual risk", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Offer assisted practical testing, transparent fees and an appeal without lowering safety standards" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Unsafe counterfeit supply enters a closed market", "whoIsHurt": "Repairers and users exposed to unsafe copied parts created by a closed supply route", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Open a verified parts channel, test suspect parts and recall dangerous stock" }, { "harmOrFailure": "External projects fail after vendor exit", "whoIsHurt": "Residents relying on a project after the outside vendor leaves", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Transfer manuals, tools and service rights locally, fund continuity and replace equipment that cannot be supported" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Diagnostics, manuals, parts identity and repair evidence", "whyNeeded": "Diagnostics, manuals, part identities and repair records let a local operator find the fault and prove a safe fix.", "ifMissing": "Without this information, good parts cannot be distinguished from unsafe copies and working equipment may be abandoned.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S11", "PC-S12", "RSM-13" ] }, { "dependency": "Standards, accreditation, procurement, competition, warranty and repair rights", "whyNeeded": "Standards, repair, warranty and competition rules create a lawful route to parts, testing, payment and appeal for smaller operators.", "ifMissing": "Without an affordable route, only the incumbent can qualify even when a local worker can perform the repair safely.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21", "HBD-16" ] }, { "dependency": "Parts, tools, workshops, transport, power and safe access", "whyNeeded": "Parts, tools, workshops, transport, power and site access are what let local knowledge become an actual repair.", "ifMissing": "Without them, certification or a manual does not restore a stranded machine or service.", "evidenceIds": [ "PC-S11", "PC-S12" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-023", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-lived-b-024" ], "actorOrPerson": "Someone using disclosed relational assistance to translate, rehearse, remember or navigate", "triggerOrContext": "Language, disability, anxiety, distance, scheduling or unfamiliar rules make a staffed service or group hard to reach.", "plainJob": "Help me understand what to do and introduce me to the right real person or group, without pretending the digital helper is them.", "observableCompletion": "The person reaches the chosen staffed service or reciprocal group, understands disclosure and limits, controls memory, can use a non-digital route, and reports whether the bridge helped; failed handoffs are recorded.", "repeatedDemand": "At each new service, appointment, lesson, repair request, community event, memory decision and failed referral.", "why2031Not2026": "Current evidence supports mixed short-term help and harm; W04's 2031 distinction is that procurement retains staff and measures whether the relational layer routes people into them.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s22" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Social-connection evidence frames a worldwide issue", "Online relationship studies are narrow and cannot stand for all communities", "Scenario possibility: W04 buys digital help only when it leads to a staffed human service" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Language, culture, disability and trust shape whether the bridge works", "A referral is useful only where staff and transport exist", "Health, school and community rules differ by country" ], "unknowns": [ "Short studies cannot establish durable bridge effects", "Online community types have mixed consequences", "A referral may coexist with reduced reciprocal contact" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The person chooses use and memory; named human service and community duty-holders own consequential decisions", "remedyIfItFails": "Human handoff, correction, memory control, non-digital route and service complaint", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Relational assistance is not friendship, treatment, teaching, professional judgement or community legitimacy." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise belonging", "Does not promise treatment or learning", "Does not claim every online group is beneficial" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "A polished referral reaches no staff", "whoIsHurt": "A person referred to a clinic, school or service with no available staff", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep the original route open, find a staffed alternative and confirm that a human accepted the handoff" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Memory becomes surveillance", "whoIsHurt": "A person whose translation or reminder history is reused to monitor them", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Stop reuse, delete or export memory and provide the same service without hidden tracking" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Synthetic attention replaces contact", "whoIsHurt": "An isolated person whose digital bridge becomes a replacement for real contact", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Limit endless engagement, offer repeated routes to people and ask whether reciprocal contact grew" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Crisis escalation fails", "whoIsHurt": "A person in danger when the promised escalation never reaches help", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Contact a staffed emergency route, confirm receipt and review the failure before the system returns" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Disclosure, accessible translation, memory controls and verified handoff", "whyNeeded": "Clear disclosure, usable translation, memory controls and a verified handoff help a person understand the tool, correct it and reach a human.", "ifMissing": "Without these features, a wrong translation can travel onward and a referral may disappear without anyone taking the case.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Data, safeguarding, accessibility, health, education and service duties", "whyNeeded": "Data, safeguarding, accessibility, health and education duties protect the person and keep professional decisions with accountable staff.", "ifMissing": "Without these duties, convenience can replace consent, access or qualified judgement.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Staffed clinics, schools, repair services, meeting places, transport and offline access", "whyNeeded": "Clinics, schools, repair services, meeting places, transport and offline access are the human destinations promised by the digital bridge.", "ifMissing": "If those destinations lack staff or cannot be reached, the bridge becomes a dead end.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "horizon.education-social-culture.s22" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-lived-b-024", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "Someone using disclosed relational assistance to translate, rehearse, remember or navigate", "triggerOrContext": "Language, disability, anxiety, distance, scheduling or unfamiliar rules make a staffed service or group hard to reach.", "plainJob": "Help me understand what to do and introduce me to the right real person or group, without pretending the digital helper is them.", "observableCompletion": "The person reaches the chosen staffed service or reciprocal group, understands disclosure and limits, controls memory, can use a non-digital route, and reports whether the bridge helped; failed handoffs are recorded.", "repeatedDemand": "At each new service, appointment, lesson, repair request, community event, memory decision and failed referral.", "why2031Not2026": "Current evidence supports mixed short-term help and harm; W04's 2031 distinction is that procurement retains staff and measures whether the relational layer routes people into them.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s22" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Social-connection evidence frames a worldwide issue", "Online relationship studies are narrow and cannot stand for all communities", "Scenario possibility: W04 buys digital help only when it leads to a staffed human service" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Language, culture, disability and trust shape whether the bridge works", "A referral is useful only where staff and transport exist", "Health, school and community rules differ by country" ], "unknowns": [ "Short studies cannot establish durable bridge effects", "Online community types have mixed consequences", "A referral may coexist with reduced reciprocal contact" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The person chooses use and memory; named human service and community duty-holders own consequential decisions", "remedyIfItFails": "Human handoff, correction, memory control, non-digital route and service complaint", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Relational assistance is not friendship, treatment, teaching, professional judgement or community legitimacy." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise belonging", "Does not promise treatment or learning", "Does not claim every online group is beneficial" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "A polished referral reaches no staff", "whoIsHurt": "A person referred to a clinic, school or service with no available staff", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep the original route open, find a staffed alternative and confirm that a human accepted the handoff" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Memory becomes surveillance", "whoIsHurt": "A person whose translation or reminder history is reused to monitor them", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Stop reuse, delete or export memory and provide the same service without hidden tracking" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Synthetic attention replaces contact", "whoIsHurt": "An isolated person whose digital bridge becomes a replacement for real contact", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Limit endless engagement, offer repeated routes to people and ask whether reciprocal contact grew" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Crisis escalation fails", "whoIsHurt": "A person in danger when the promised escalation never reaches help", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Contact a staffed emergency route, confirm receipt and review the failure before the system returns" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Disclosure, accessible translation, memory controls and verified handoff", "whyNeeded": "Clear disclosure, usable translation, memory controls and a verified handoff help a person understand the tool, correct it and reach a human.", "ifMissing": "Without these features, a wrong translation can travel onward and a referral may disappear without anyone taking the case.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Data, safeguarding, accessibility, health, education and service duties", "whyNeeded": "Data, safeguarding, accessibility, health and education duties protect the person and keep professional decisions with accountable staff.", "ifMissing": "Without these duties, convenience can replace consent, access or qualified judgement.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Staffed clinics, schools, repair services, meeting places, transport and offline access", "whyNeeded": "Clinics, schools, repair services, meeting places, transport and offline access are the human destinations promised by the digital bridge.", "ifMissing": "If those destinations lack staff or cannot be reached, the bridge becomes a dead end.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "horizon.education-social-culture.s22" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-024", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-lived-b-025" ], "actorOrPerson": "The worker whose judgement and relationship make a renewed service usable", "triggerOrContext": "A buyer proposes a planning, monitoring or support system that changes staffing, workload, privacy, judgement or handoff.", "plainJob": "Let me test the change, protect the people I support, stop unsafe use and keep enough time for the human part of my job.", "observableCompletion": "Workers are paid to take part before adoption. They can redesign or stop unsafe uses, keep the judgement their role requires, and review workload, staffing, privacy, injury and service results after launch.", "repeatedDemand": "At design, procurement, pilot, staffing change, incident, model update, contract review and renewal.", "why2031Not2026": "Worker consultation exists unevenly now. W04 assumes that by 2031 it becomes a normal part of buying and running labour-using public systems; the assigned sources do not prove how this works for informal or migrant workers.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "HBD-16", "RSM-13", "SC-G05", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: W04 gives workers an earlier say in tools that change public and frontline services", "The assigned evidence covers workforce capacity, safety and service quality", "It does not directly measure voice for informal or migrant workers" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Consultation and bargaining rights differ by country and sector", "Care, teaching and maintenance teams need different kinds of judgement", "A worker cannot exercise a stop right where staffing or legal protection is missing" ], "unknowns": [ "The assigned evidence does not directly measure voice for informal or migrant workers", "Formal consultation may happen too late to change the purchase", "More staff does not by itself prove fair pay, enough time or real authority" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Workers hold scoped professional and stop-work authority; employers, commissioners and regulators retain funding and legal responsibility", "remedyIfItFails": "Redesign, staffing correction, data limits, safe shutdown, grievance, whistleblowing and contract enforcement", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Participation does not transfer institutional liability to frontline workers or require them to accept surveillance." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise consensus", "Does not promise automation improves work", "Does not make human warmth an unfunded requirement" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Voice arrives after purchase", "whoIsHurt": "Workers and service users when consultation begins after an irreversible purchase", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Pause rollout, fund worker testing and reopen contract terms that affect safety, staffing or judgement" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Administration falls but surveillance rises", "whoIsHurt": "A worker whose paperwork falls but whose every action becomes tracked", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Remove unnecessary monitoring, give access to collected data and allow a privacy challenge" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Relational time is cut", "whoIsHurt": "Patients, pupils or residents and the worker supporting them when face-to-face time is cut", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Protect enough human time for safe care or teaching, correct staffing and let the supported person report the effect" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Professional judgement is overridden by an opaque automated judgement", "whoIsHurt": "A worker and service user harmed when a hidden model overrules professional judgement", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Show the reason, allow a protected override and send disputed cases to an accountable human reviewer" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Worker-visible evidence, override, audit and workload measurement", "whyNeeded": "Worker-visible evidence, override records and workload measures show what the tool changed and whether human rescue or pressure increased.", "ifMissing": "Without a shared record, management can claim efficiency while workers and service users absorb hidden harm.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-16", "RSM-13" ] }, { "dependency": "Collective, professional, safety, privacy, procurement and whistleblowing rights", "whyNeeded": "Collective, professional, safety, privacy and whistleblowing rights let workers challenge surveillance and stop unsafe use without retaliation.", "ifMissing": "Without protected authority, consultation is only advice that a buyer can ignore after purchase.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-16", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ] }, { "dependency": "Adequate staffing, safe workplaces, time, equipment and meeting capacity", "whyNeeded": "Enough staff, time, safe space and equipment let workers use judgement and maintain the relationship the service depends on.", "ifMissing": "Without these basics, an override button cannot create the time or capacity needed to act on it.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-lived-b-025", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "The worker whose judgement and relationship make a renewed service usable", "triggerOrContext": "A buyer proposes a planning, monitoring or support system that changes staffing, workload, privacy, judgement or handoff.", "plainJob": "Let me test the change, protect the people I support, stop unsafe use and keep enough time for the human part of my job.", "observableCompletion": "Workers are paid to take part before adoption. They can redesign or stop unsafe uses, keep the judgement their role requires, and review workload, staffing, privacy, injury and service results after launch.", "repeatedDemand": "At design, procurement, pilot, staffing change, incident, model update, contract review and renewal.", "why2031Not2026": "Worker consultation exists unevenly now. W04 assumes that by 2031 it becomes a normal part of buying and running labour-using public systems; the assigned sources do not prove how this works for informal or migrant workers.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "HBD-16", "RSM-13", "SC-G05", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Scenario possibility: W04 gives workers an earlier say in tools that change public and frontline services", "The assigned evidence covers workforce capacity, safety and service quality", "It does not directly measure voice for informal or migrant workers" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Consultation and bargaining rights differ by country and sector", "Care, teaching and maintenance teams need different kinds of judgement", "A worker cannot exercise a stop right where staffing or legal protection is missing" ], "unknowns": [ "The assigned evidence does not directly measure voice for informal or migrant workers", "Formal consultation may happen too late to change the purchase", "More staff does not by itself prove fair pay, enough time or real authority" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Workers hold scoped professional and stop-work authority; employers, commissioners and regulators retain funding and legal responsibility", "remedyIfItFails": "Redesign, staffing correction, data limits, safe shutdown, grievance, whistleblowing and contract enforcement", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Participation does not transfer institutional liability to frontline workers or require them to accept surveillance." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise consensus", "Does not promise automation improves work", "Does not make human warmth an unfunded requirement" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Voice arrives after purchase", "whoIsHurt": "Workers and service users when consultation begins after an irreversible purchase", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Pause rollout, fund worker testing and reopen contract terms that affect safety, staffing or judgement" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Administration falls but surveillance rises", "whoIsHurt": "A worker whose paperwork falls but whose every action becomes tracked", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Remove unnecessary monitoring, give access to collected data and allow a privacy challenge" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Relational time is cut", "whoIsHurt": "Patients, pupils or residents and the worker supporting them when face-to-face time is cut", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Protect enough human time for safe care or teaching, correct staffing and let the supported person report the effect" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Professional judgement is overridden by an opaque automated judgement", "whoIsHurt": "A worker and service user harmed when a hidden model overrules professional judgement", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Show the reason, allow a protected override and send disputed cases to an accountable human reviewer" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Worker-visible evidence, override, audit and workload measurement", "whyNeeded": "Worker-visible evidence, override records and workload measures show what the tool changed and whether human rescue or pressure increased.", "ifMissing": "Without a shared record, management can claim efficiency while workers and service users absorb hidden harm.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-16", "RSM-13" ] }, { "dependency": "Collective, professional, safety, privacy, procurement and whistleblowing rights", "whyNeeded": "Collective, professional, safety, privacy and whistleblowing rights let workers challenge surveillance and stop unsafe use without retaliation.", "ifMissing": "Without protected authority, consultation is only advice that a buyer can ignore after purchase.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-16", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ] }, { "dependency": "Adequate staffing, safe workplaces, time, equipment and meeting capacity", "whyNeeded": "Enough staff, time, safe space and equipment let workers use judgement and maintain the relationship the service depends on.", "ifMissing": "Without these basics, an override button cannot create the time or capacity needed to act on it.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-05", "SC-G05" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-025", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-b-lived-b-026" ], "actorOrPerson": "A young person or career changer learning a trade, care, teaching, logistics or maintenance role", "triggerOrContext": "A regional compact creates demand for grid, building, climate, care, teaching, logistics or maintenance work and opens a supervised entry route.", "plainJob": "Let me practise safely with a real mentor, get paid, prove what I can do, and become part of a team without being treated as cheap labour.", "observableCompletion": "The learner completes paid supervised practice, demonstrates retained safe skill, progresses to a recognised next step, has a named mentor and grievance route, and separately reports routine, contribution and belonging without those being inferred from attendance.", "repeatedDemand": "Every placement, task expansion, assessment, team change, credential step and move between regions or employers.", "why2031Not2026": "Current evidence shows learning and task-exposure signals, not a scaled labour-using renewal settlement; this recurring pathway exists only if W04 commissions and maintains demand through 2031.", "worldIds": [ "w04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s05", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "OECD evidence and one Nigeria trial describe different learning settings", "A 22-country study observes belonging but does not prove that work causes it", "Scenario possibility: W04 creates more paid routes into maintenance, care, teaching and logistics" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Apprenticeship pay, safety rules and recognised trades differ by country", "Demand for each skill will vary by region", "Mentors, workshops, transport and suitable placements may be scarce" ], "unknowns": [ "Commissioned demand may be regionally uneven", "Belonging is not caused by employment alone", "Mentor and rural placement capacity is unresolved" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Accredited trainers, employers and professional or safety bodies assess skill; the learner chooses participation", "remedyIfItFails": "Paid catch-up, reassessment, safe-task restriction, mentor change, portable recognition and labour grievance", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Employment, attendance, a credential or community participation cannot guarantee friendship, belonging, purpose or legitimacy." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise permanent employment", "Does not promise belonging", "Does not treat dangerous or underpaid work as meaningful by default" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Apprentices replace paid staff", "whoIsHurt": "A learner used as cheap labour instead of receiving instruction", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Pay the learner, restore protected teaching time and remove tasks that do not build the agreed skill" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Automation removes practice opportunities", "whoIsHurt": "A learner who cannot gain skill because software now performs every beginner task", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Create supervised practice or simulation and assess the person doing the real task safely" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Unsafe work is framed as character building", "whoIsHurt": "A learner exposed to danger under the label of building resilience", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Stop the task, investigate, pay for recovery and restrict work until training and equipment are adequate" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Team inclusion is inferred rather than heard from the learner", "whoIsHurt": "A learner who is marked as included even though the team shuts them out", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Ask the learner privately, change the mentor or team and review progress after the move" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Authentic assessment, task and safety records, portable recognition", "whyNeeded": "Practical assessment and task-safety records show what the learner performed, under what conditions, and carry the proof to another employer.", "ifMissing": "Without authentic records, generated work may pass as skill or real progress may be lost when the learner moves.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s05" ] }, { "dependency": "Apprenticeship, wage, safety, accreditation, equality and grievance rules", "whyNeeded": "Apprenticeship, wage, safety, equality and grievance rules make practice paid, safe and open to challenge.", "ifMissing": "Without them, a learning route can become cheap labour, discrimination or dangerous work with no remedy.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ] }, { "dependency": "Mentors, workshops, placements, safe equipment, transport and commissioned work", "whyNeeded": "Mentors, workshops, placements, safe equipment, transport and real commissioned work provide repeated practice and feedback.", "ifMissing": "If these are missing, learners can collect lessons and credentials without becoming ready for the job.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s05" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-b-lived-b-026", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "A young person or career changer learning a trade, care, teaching, logistics or maintenance role", "triggerOrContext": "A regional compact creates demand for grid, building, climate, care, teaching, logistics or maintenance work and opens a supervised entry route.", "plainJob": "Let me practise safely with a real mentor, get paid, prove what I can do, and become part of a team without being treated as cheap labour.", "observableCompletion": "The learner completes paid supervised practice, demonstrates retained safe skill, progresses to a recognised next step, has a named mentor and grievance route, and separately reports routine, contribution and belonging without those being inferred from attendance.", "repeatedDemand": "Every placement, task expansion, assessment, team change, credential step and move between regions or employers.", "why2031Not2026": "Current evidence shows learning and task-exposure signals, not a scaled labour-using renewal settlement; this recurring pathway exists only if W04 commissions and maintains demand through 2031.", "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceIds": [ "EWF-04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s05", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "OECD evidence and one Nigeria trial describe different learning settings", "A 22-country study observes belonging but does not prove that work causes it", "Scenario possibility: W04 creates more paid routes into maintenance, care, teaching and logistics" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Apprenticeship pay, safety rules and recognised trades differ by country", "Demand for each skill will vary by region", "Mentors, workshops, transport and suitable placements may be scarce" ], "unknowns": [ "Commissioned demand may be regionally uneven", "Belonging is not caused by employment alone", "Mentor and rural placement capacity is unresolved" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Accredited trainers, employers and professional or safety bodies assess skill; the learner chooses participation", "remedyIfItFails": "Paid catch-up, reassessment, safe-task restriction, mentor change, portable recognition and labour grievance", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Employment, attendance, a credential or community participation cannot guarantee friendship, belonging, purpose or legitimacy." }, "nonPromises": [ "Does not promise permanent employment", "Does not promise belonging", "Does not treat dangerous or underpaid work as meaningful by default" ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Apprentices replace paid staff", "whoIsHurt": "A learner used as cheap labour instead of receiving instruction", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Pay the learner, restore protected teaching time and remove tasks that do not build the agreed skill" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Automation removes practice opportunities", "whoIsHurt": "A learner who cannot gain skill because software now performs every beginner task", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Create supervised practice or simulation and assess the person doing the real task safely" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Unsafe work is framed as character building", "whoIsHurt": "A learner exposed to danger under the label of building resilience", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Stop the task, investigate, pay for recovery and restrict work until training and equipment are adequate" }, { "harmOrFailure": "Team inclusion is inferred rather than heard from the learner", "whoIsHurt": "A learner who is marked as included even though the team shuts them out", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Ask the learner privately, change the mentor or team and review progress after the move" } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Authentic assessment, task and safety records, portable recognition", "whyNeeded": "Practical assessment and task-safety records show what the learner performed, under what conditions, and carry the proof to another employer.", "ifMissing": "Without authentic records, generated work may pass as skill or real progress may be lost when the learner moves.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s04", "horizon.education-social-culture.s05" ] }, { "dependency": "Apprenticeship, wage, safety, accreditation, equality and grievance rules", "whyNeeded": "Apprenticeship, wage, safety, equality and grievance rules make practice paid, safe and open to challenge.", "ifMissing": "Without them, a learning route can become cheap labour, discrimination or dangerous work with no remedy.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s21" ] }, { "dependency": "Mentors, workshops, placements, safe equipment, transport and commissioned work", "whyNeeded": "Mentors, workshops, placements, safe equipment, transport and real commissioned work provide repeated practice and feedback.", "ifMissing": "If these are missing, learners can collect lessons and credentials without becoming ready for the job.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s05" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-026", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-lived-w05-01" ], "actorOrPerson": "Resident, patient, learner or carer inside or outside a protected corridor", "triggerOrContext": "Power, communications, cloud, water, heat, health, education, ID or logistics fail together for hours or days and service return is unequal by place.", "plainJob": "When several basic services fail at once, help me keep the people I am responsible for safe and find what still works without assuming my phone, account or main network is available.", "observableCompletion": "During a test or real event, a person reaches water, urgent care, shelter or heat safety through a backup route. Show the result and service return by place and at-risk group. If a digital step fails, staff, radio, paper or in-person contact takes over.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns during every compound incident, seasonal hazard, displacement episode and service return handoff because dependencies and staff change.", "why2031Not2026": "By 2031 W05 has repeated coupled shocks and corridor hardening; current sources show cascades and uneven staff and tools but not a universal settled pattern.", "worldIds": [ "w05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s43", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s45", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52", "C01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Every region exposed to linked power, communication and public-service failure", "Conflict, island, remote and places with few staff and tools with slower service return" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Local backup routes, hazards and staffing vary sharply", "Protected corridors and exposed places may sit inside the same country" ], "unknowns": [ "Which shocks align and how long they last remain unresolved", "One conflict demonstrates a cascade mechanism rather than worldwide incidence" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Utilities, crisis teams, local public bodies and staffed services can restore and route key help.", "remedyIfItFails": "People need an urgent human fix, local help, a safe second route and later review of missed groups.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "An outage does not authorise unlimited surveillance, forced ID linkage or indefinite crisis control." } ], "nonPromises": [ "No route promises uninterrupted service or physical safety.", "An alert or declared resilience plan is not completed service backup." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "False reassurance delays evacuation, care or the search for water and shelter.", "whoIsHurt": "Residents with urgent health, care or mobility needs are hurt first.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Verified local status and a staffed exception route must replace unsupported reassurance." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Protected corridors divert staff and fuel from exposed places.", "whoIsHurt": "Remote, displaced and low-income communities wait longer for key service.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Visible service return outcomes and public priority review must expose and correct the gap." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tested failover and clear dependency maps", "whyNeeded": "People need a route that survives the same linked failure as the main service.", "ifMissing": "Every stated fallback disappears with power, ID or network loss.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s43", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s45" ] }, { "dependency": "Key-service duties and urgent human fix", "whyNeeded": "A person needs responsible help when an automated route fails.", "ifMissing": "A technical fault blocks key support with no way to review it.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] }, { "dependency": "Power, water, safe sites, staff and transport", "whyNeeded": "The lived outcome depends on physical service, not information alone.", "ifMissing": "Accurate guidance cannot keep a person safe.", "evidenceIds": [ "C01", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-lived-w05-01", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "Resident, patient, learner or carer inside or outside a protected corridor", "triggerOrContext": "Power, communications, cloud, water, heat, health, education, ID or logistics fail together for hours or days and service return is unequal by place.", "plainJob": "When several basic services fail at once, help me keep the people I am responsible for safe and find what still works without assuming my phone, account or main network is available.", "observableCompletion": "During a test or real event, a person reaches water, urgent care, shelter or heat safety through a backup route. Show the result and service return by place and at-risk group. If a digital step fails, staff, radio, paper or in-person contact takes over.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns during every compound incident, seasonal hazard, displacement episode and service return handoff because dependencies and staff change.", "why2031Not2026": "By 2031 W05 has repeated coupled shocks and corridor hardening; current sources show cascades and uneven staff and tools but not a universal settled pattern.", "worldIds": [ "W05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s43", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s45", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52", "C01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Every region exposed to linked power, communication and public-service failure", "Conflict, island, remote and places with few staff and tools with slower service return" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Local backup routes, hazards and staffing vary sharply", "Protected corridors and exposed places may sit inside the same country" ], "unknowns": [ "Which shocks align and how long they last remain unresolved", "One conflict demonstrates a cascade mechanism rather than worldwide incidence" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Utilities, crisis teams, local public bodies and staffed services can restore and route key help.", "remedyIfItFails": "People need an urgent human fix, local help, a safe second route and later review of missed groups.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "An outage does not authorise unlimited surveillance, forced ID linkage or indefinite crisis control." }, "nonPromises": [ "No route promises uninterrupted service or physical safety.", "An alert or declared resilience plan is not completed service backup." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "False reassurance delays evacuation, care or the search for water and shelter.", "whoIsHurt": "Residents with urgent health, care or mobility needs are hurt first.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Verified local status and a staffed exception route must replace unsupported reassurance." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Protected corridors divert staff and fuel from exposed places.", "whoIsHurt": "Remote, displaced and low-income communities wait longer for key service.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Visible service return outcomes and public priority review must expose and correct the gap." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Tested failover and clear dependency maps", "whyNeeded": "People need a route that survives the same linked failure as the main service.", "ifMissing": "Every stated fallback disappears with power, ID or network loss.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s43", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s45" ] }, { "dependency": "Key-service duties and urgent human fix", "whyNeeded": "A person needs responsible help when an automated route fails.", "ifMissing": "A technical fault blocks key support with no way to review it.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] }, { "dependency": "Power, water, safe sites, staff and transport", "whyNeeded": "The lived outcome depends on physical service, not information alone.", "ifMissing": "Accurate guidance cannot keep a person safe.", "evidenceIds": [ "C01", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-027", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-lived-w05-02" ], "actorOrPerson": "Displaced, document-poor, disabled, older or cross-border person with a failed record", "triggerOrContext": "A service, border or exchange route requires an ID record that is offline, lost, compromised, inconsistent across places or tied to an inaccessible device.", "plainJob": "When the system says it cannot prove who I am, let me keep urgent rights and correct the record through a person without asking me to use the same broken proof again.", "observableCompletion": "Urgent health, shelter, food, learning or family access stays open under a recorded exception while ID is checked. The person can offer other proof and see disputed facts. A person then makes the choice and explains any fix or appeal result.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns at every renewal, device loss, data mismatch, displacement, border crossing, cyber incident and linked-service denial.", "why2031Not2026": "Current ID and wallet sources show large gaps and staged legal intent. W05 makes the need for human fixes recur because integrated ID can spread denial across corridors by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "w05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15", "HBD-13" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Borders, conflict settings and services using remote-first ID", "Health, learning and exchange routes linked to one record" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Acceptance, fix law and staffed access differ by place", "Device, address and document access vary by age, disability and displacement" ], "unknowns": [ "Staged wallet and health-data law does not establish usable recovery", "Local appeal and record acceptance still work unevenly" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Public and service bodies can decide legal ID and service access through a human fix process.", "remedyIfItFails": "The person needs urgent document-light access, disputed-fact visibility, fix and outside appeal.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Providers lack power to grant citizenship, legal status or linked rights through a confidence measure." } ], "nonPromises": [ "A record does not promise service access or acceptance in another place.", "Document-light access does not erase later lawful verification." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "One mismatch spreads across health, exchange, education and travel.", "whoIsHurt": "People with lost documents or limited device access face repeated denial.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Separate ID domains, recorded exceptions and human fix must contain the error." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Remote-first recovery demands the same device, address or network that failed.", "whoIsHurt": "Displaced, disabled, older and remote people cannot enter the remedy.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Staffed, paper and mobile recovery routes must provide accessible entry." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Separable ID domains and recoverable records", "whyNeeded": "One broken proof must not stop every key service.", "ifMissing": "A single mismatch spreads denial across linked systems.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ] }, { "dependency": "Fix, human review and temporary access", "whyNeeded": "A person needs lawful action while evidence remains incomplete.", "ifMissing": "Urgent rights wait for a record that may never recover.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ] }, { "dependency": "Staffed access, paper, power and language support", "whyNeeded": "Recovery must remain reachable without the failed digital route.", "ifMissing": "The right exists but the affected person cannot use it.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-lived-w05-02", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "Displaced, document-poor, disabled, older or cross-border person with a failed record", "triggerOrContext": "A service, border or exchange route requires an ID record that is offline, lost, compromised, inconsistent across places or tied to an inaccessible device.", "plainJob": "When the system says it cannot prove who I am, let me keep urgent rights and correct the record through a person without asking me to use the same broken proof again.", "observableCompletion": "Urgent health, shelter, food, learning or family access stays open under a recorded exception while ID is checked. The person can offer other proof and see disputed facts. A person then makes the choice and explains any fix or appeal result.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns at every renewal, device loss, data mismatch, displacement, border crossing, cyber incident and linked-service denial.", "why2031Not2026": "Current ID and wallet sources show large gaps and staged legal intent. W05 makes the need for human fixes recur because integrated ID can spread denial across corridors by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "W05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15", "HBD-13" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Borders, conflict settings and services using remote-first ID", "Health, learning and exchange routes linked to one record" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Acceptance, fix law and staffed access differ by place", "Device, address and document access vary by age, disability and displacement" ], "unknowns": [ "Staged wallet and health-data law does not establish usable recovery", "Local appeal and record acceptance still work unevenly" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Public and service bodies can decide legal ID and service access through a human fix process.", "remedyIfItFails": "The person needs urgent document-light access, disputed-fact visibility, fix and outside appeal.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Providers lack power to grant citizenship, legal status or linked rights through a confidence measure." }, "nonPromises": [ "A record does not promise service access or acceptance in another place.", "Document-light access does not erase later lawful verification." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "One mismatch spreads across health, exchange, education and travel.", "whoIsHurt": "People with lost documents or limited device access face repeated denial.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Separate ID domains, recorded exceptions and human fix must contain the error." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Remote-first recovery demands the same device, address or network that failed.", "whoIsHurt": "Displaced, disabled, older and remote people cannot enter the remedy.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Staffed, paper and mobile recovery routes must provide accessible entry." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Separable ID domains and recoverable records", "whyNeeded": "One broken proof must not stop every key service.", "ifMissing": "A single mismatch spreads denial across linked systems.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ] }, { "dependency": "Fix, human review and temporary access", "whyNeeded": "A person needs lawful action while evidence remains incomplete.", "ifMissing": "Urgent rights wait for a record that may never recover.", "evidenceIds": [ "HBD-13", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s15" ] }, { "dependency": "Staffed access, paper, power and language support", "whyNeeded": "Recovery must remain reachable without the failed digital route.", "ifMissing": "The right exists but the affected person cannot use it.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-028", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-lived-w05-08" ], "actorOrPerson": "Non-citizen, displaced, homeless, rural, remote or conflict-affected person", "triggerOrContext": "Key access is tied to citizenship, a registered address, corridor residence, a recognised device or a local record that the person lacks or cannot reach.", "plainJob": "When I am outside the protected place or paperwork, let me reach the key civilian service and a real public body without pretending that my location or documents are normal.", "observableCompletion": "A person reaches water, urgent care, shelter, basic learning or family contact through a route that needs few documents. Each refusal based on place or status gives a reason and can be reviewed. Human or local help still works when power and networks fail.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns with every displacement, move, disaster, benefit or service renewal, border encounter and outage.", "why2031Not2026": "Conflict and ID gaps already matter. By 2031, W05 hardening means location, citizenship and corridor acceptance decide who gets protection more often and for longer.", "worldIds": [ "w05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s09", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52", "SC-G01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Conflict, border, island, rural, remote and migrant corridors", "Services tied to citizenship, address, device or corridor residence" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Civilian duties, status law and aid access vary by place", "Local and Indigenous power changes who may act and how" ], "unknowns": [ "Conflict, lawful status and return conditions can change quickly", "Safe physical passage cannot be inferred from a document-light route" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Competent public, aid, legal, local and Indigenous bodies can decide applicable access and status questions.", "remedyIfItFails": "The person needs a document-light route, human status review, safe local escalation and fix of hidden ID check denial.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A service operator cannot infer citizenship, intent or human worth from ID confidence, address or corridor membership." } ], "nonPromises": [ "A key civilian route does not promise immigration status or full entitlement.", "Location evidence does not prove ID or intent." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Document poverty becomes lasting service poverty.", "whoIsHurt": "Displaced, homeless and informal residents repeatedly lose key access.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Document-light entry and a staffed legal review must separate urgent service from later status decisions." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Location checks expose vulnerable people or enable targeting.", "whoIsHurt": "People fleeing conflict, abuse or insecure status face direct safety risk.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Location restraint, rules that limit use and trusted local or aid power must govern access." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Document-light case handling and offline escalation", "whyNeeded": "Urgent civilian access cannot wait for a normal record or network.", "ifMissing": "The people most affected by disruption are excluded by its paperwork.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] }, { "dependency": "Status review, civilian duties and local public body", "whyNeeded": "A competent human must separate urgent access from later legal status.", "ifMissing": "An operator quietly decides rights through ID check rules.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s09", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12" ] }, { "dependency": "Safe routes, local staff and local service staff and tools", "whyNeeded": "A legal route only matters when water, shelter, care or learning can be reached.", "ifMissing": "Acceptance changes no lived outcome.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52", "SC-G01" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-lived-w05-08", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "Non-citizen, displaced, homeless, rural, remote or conflict-affected person", "triggerOrContext": "Key access is tied to citizenship, a registered address, corridor residence, a recognised device or a local record that the person lacks or cannot reach.", "plainJob": "When I am outside the protected place or paperwork, let me reach the key civilian service and a real public body without pretending that my location or documents are normal.", "observableCompletion": "A person reaches water, urgent care, shelter, basic learning or family contact through a route that needs few documents. Each refusal based on place or status gives a reason and can be reviewed. Human or local help still works when power and networks fail.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns with every displacement, move, disaster, benefit or service renewal, border encounter and outage.", "why2031Not2026": "Conflict and ID gaps already matter. By 2031, W05 hardening means location, citizenship and corridor acceptance decide who gets protection more often and for longer.", "worldIds": [ "W05" ], "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s09", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52", "SC-G01" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Conflict, border, island, rural, remote and migrant corridors", "Services tied to citizenship, address, device or corridor residence" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Civilian duties, status law and aid access vary by place", "Local and Indigenous power changes who may act and how" ], "unknowns": [ "Conflict, lawful status and return conditions can change quickly", "Safe physical passage cannot be inferred from a document-light route" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Competent public, aid, legal, local and Indigenous bodies can decide applicable access and status questions.", "remedyIfItFails": "The person needs a document-light route, human status review, safe local escalation and fix of hidden ID check denial.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A service operator cannot infer citizenship, intent or human worth from ID confidence, address or corridor membership." }, "nonPromises": [ "A key civilian route does not promise immigration status or full entitlement.", "Location evidence does not prove ID or intent." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Document poverty becomes lasting service poverty.", "whoIsHurt": "Displaced, homeless and informal residents repeatedly lose key access.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Document-light entry and a staffed legal review must separate urgent service from later status decisions." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Location checks expose vulnerable people or enable targeting.", "whoIsHurt": "People fleeing conflict, abuse or insecure status face direct safety risk.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Location restraint, rules that limit use and trusted local or aid power must govern access." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Document-light case handling and offline escalation", "whyNeeded": "Urgent civilian access cannot wait for a normal record or network.", "ifMissing": "The people most affected by disruption are excluded by its paperwork.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52" ] }, { "dependency": "Status review, civilian duties and local public body", "whyNeeded": "A competent human must separate urgent access from later legal status.", "ifMissing": "An operator quietly decides rights through ID check rules.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s09", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s12" ] }, { "dependency": "Safe routes, local staff and local service staff and tools", "whyNeeded": "A legal route only matters when water, shelter, care or learning can be reached.", "ifMissing": "Acceptance changes no lived outcome.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s52", "SC-G01" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-029", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-lived-w06-01" ], "actorOrPerson": "User of an AI relationship system, switcher, guardian or former user", "triggerOrContext": "ID-linked history accumulates across sessions or life domains and a person wants to understand it, move it, narrow it, pause or leave.", "plainJob": "When this system remembers our history, let me see what it believes, move only what I choose, delete it and leave without losing unrelated rights or being pulled back in.", "observableCompletion": "An ordinary user can see and understand saved memory. They can fix errors, export chosen history and get proof of deletion. Outside tests check time, lost history, lost functions, leftover copies and unwanted attempts to pull them back. Pausing, deleting or switching does not reduce other service access.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns after every material memory update, relationship change, provider change, public use, consent review and attempted exit.", "why2031Not2026": "Current inquiry and law identify an emerging set of duties; W06 requires lasting memory and switching cost to become a defining 2031 condition, which is not yet a global outcome.", "worldIds": [ "w06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Lasting AI use across providers and public bodies", "Services where leaving memory could also affect access or standing" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Inspection, transfer, deletion and competition law differ by place", "Users with weak human other routes may face greater functional loss" ], "unknowns": [ "Actual cross-provider portability and deletion across derived records remain unresolved", "Legal action does not establish provider compliance or global effects" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The person or lawful guardian can control ordinary consent, while providers, regulators and courts act within their distinct duties.", "remedyIfItFails": "The person needs inspection, fix, selective transfer, verified deletion, exit without punishment and outside complaint review.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Providers cannot own a person's social self, while deletion cannot erase another person's lawful record." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Transfer does not promise the same relationship, function or interpretation.", "Memory control does not promise emotional relief or safe relationships." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Export is technically possible but unusable elsewhere.", "whoIsHurt": "People who leave lose accumulated function and become easier to pull back.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Selective portable history and outside switching tests must expose functional loss." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Deletion leaves shadow profiles or unwanted re-engagement.", "whoIsHurt": "Former users and people leaving unsafe relationships remain under provider influence.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Verified deletion, clear notice about leftover records and controls on return prompts must complete the exit." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "A list of saved memory, its source and selected export", "whyNeeded": "People need to understand and move the history that creates switching cost.", "ifMissing": "Exit means blind loss or continued captivity.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Inspection, fix, deletion and rights to leave without punishment", "whyNeeded": "Technical controls need an enforceable remedy when providers resist.", "ifMissing": "A user-facing control can fail without consequence.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ] }, { "dependency": "Accessible assistance and safe human support", "whyNeeded": "High-risk or disabled users may need help to understand and leave accumulated memory.", "ifMissing": "Formal control remains inaccessible to the people facing greatest switching cost.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-G05" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-lived-w06-01", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "User of an AI relationship system, switcher, guardian or former user", "triggerOrContext": "ID-linked history accumulates across sessions or life domains and a person wants to understand it, move it, narrow it, pause or leave.", "plainJob": "When this system remembers our history, let me see what it believes, move only what I choose, delete it and leave without losing unrelated rights or being pulled back in.", "observableCompletion": "An ordinary user can see and understand saved memory. They can fix errors, export chosen history and get proof of deletion. Outside tests check time, lost history, lost functions, leftover copies and unwanted attempts to pull them back. Pausing, deleting or switching does not reduce other service access.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns after every material memory update, relationship change, provider change, public use, consent review and attempted exit.", "why2031Not2026": "Current inquiry and law identify an emerging set of duties; W06 requires lasting memory and switching cost to become a defining 2031 condition, which is not yet a global outcome.", "worldIds": [ "W06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Lasting AI use across providers and public bodies", "Services where leaving memory could also affect access or standing" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Inspection, transfer, deletion and competition law differ by place", "Users with weak human other routes may face greater functional loss" ], "unknowns": [ "Actual cross-provider portability and deletion across derived records remain unresolved", "Legal action does not establish provider compliance or global effects" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The person or lawful guardian can control ordinary consent, while providers, regulators and courts act within their distinct duties.", "remedyIfItFails": "The person needs inspection, fix, selective transfer, verified deletion, exit without punishment and outside complaint review.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Providers cannot own a person's social self, while deletion cannot erase another person's lawful record." }, "nonPromises": [ "Transfer does not promise the same relationship, function or interpretation.", "Memory control does not promise emotional relief or safe relationships." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Export is technically possible but unusable elsewhere.", "whoIsHurt": "People who leave lose accumulated function and become easier to pull back.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Selective portable history and outside switching tests must expose functional loss." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Deletion leaves shadow profiles or unwanted re-engagement.", "whoIsHurt": "Former users and people leaving unsafe relationships remain under provider influence.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Verified deletion, clear notice about leftover records and controls on return prompts must complete the exit." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "A list of saved memory, its source and selected export", "whyNeeded": "People need to understand and move the history that creates switching cost.", "ifMissing": "Exit means blind loss or continued captivity.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-AI04" ] }, { "dependency": "Inspection, fix, deletion and rights to leave without punishment", "whyNeeded": "Technical controls need an enforceable remedy when providers resist.", "ifMissing": "A user-facing control can fail without consequence.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ] }, { "dependency": "Accessible assistance and safe human support", "whyNeeded": "High-risk or disabled users may need help to understand and leave accumulated memory.", "ifMissing": "Formal control remains inaccessible to the people facing greatest switching cost.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI03", "SC-G05" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-030", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-lived-w06-05" ], "actorOrPerson": "Person needing translation, rehearsal, reminders, confidence or low-friction navigation", "triggerOrContext": "Language, disability, migration, anxiety, distance or service complexity makes first contact with a group or staffed service difficult.", "plainJob": "When I need help getting ready or finding the right person, let the AI interaction end in a real invitation, two-way contact or completed service without claiming to be that human bond.", "observableCompletion": "After AI use, the person reaches the chosen group or service and stays past first contact. The handoff shares only details the person approved. It can continue without more AI use. Measure success by finished contact, two-way help or a service result.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns with every new group, appointment, transition, migration, language need and lapse in confidence or routine.", "why2031Not2026": "Short studies show mixed early effects and no clear long-term path. W06 assumes lasting AI help spreads across services and social routines by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "w06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-G01", "horizon.education-social-culture.s19", "horizon.education-social-culture.s20" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "People facing language, disability, migration or confidence barriers", "Remote and complex services where first human contact is hard" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Local language, transport, trust and staffing shape whether the route works", "A helpful digital contact can arrive where the real-world service does not" ], "unknowns": [ "Durable benefit and subgroup selection remain unresolved", "Repeated rehearsal may replace rather than enable human taking part" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The person chooses the goal and shared context, while the receiving group or duty-holder decides who may take part or receive the service.", "remedyIfItFails": "The person needs context fix, a verified human destination, privacy control and another route when the handoff does not complete.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "An AI system cannot grant friendship, treatment, qualification, membership or public trust." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Navigation is not completed care or learning.", "Immediate relief is not durable belonging." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "The handoff never occurs because the real service lacks staff.", "whoIsHurt": "People with access barriers spend more time rehearsing without receiving help.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Completed human contact and continued participation must replace interaction time as proof." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Private details are over-shared with the receiving person or group.", "whoIsHurt": "Migrants, disabled users and people seeking sensitive support face privacy or safety harm.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "User-approved context and rules that limit use must govern the handoff." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "User-controlled context and a verified human destination", "whyNeeded": "The route must reach the chosen real person without sharing extra details.", "ifMissing": "The user is routed nowhere or into an unsafe group.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02" ] }, { "dependency": "Consent, accessibility and safety duties", "whyNeeded": "Helpful routing must respect the person's agency and risk.", "ifMissing": "Access help creates new privacy, exclusion or safety harm.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "horizon.education-social-culture.s20" ] }, { "dependency": "Real people, staffed services and accessible places", "whyNeeded": "The route needs a real person or place that can receive the user.", "ifMissing": "AI preparation becomes the end instead of a route to people.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s19", "SC-G01" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-lived-w06-05", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "Person needing translation, rehearsal, reminders, confidence or low-friction navigation", "triggerOrContext": "Language, disability, migration, anxiety, distance or service complexity makes first contact with a group or staffed service difficult.", "plainJob": "When I need help getting ready or finding the right person, let the AI interaction end in a real invitation, two-way contact or completed service without claiming to be that human bond.", "observableCompletion": "After AI use, the person reaches the chosen group or service and stays past first contact. The handoff shares only details the person approved. It can continue without more AI use. Measure success by finished contact, two-way help or a service result.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns with every new group, appointment, transition, migration, language need and lapse in confidence or routine.", "why2031Not2026": "Short studies show mixed early effects and no clear long-term path. W06 assumes lasting AI help spreads across services and social routines by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "W06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-G01", "horizon.education-social-culture.s19", "horizon.education-social-culture.s20" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "People facing language, disability, migration or confidence barriers", "Remote and complex services where first human contact is hard" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Local language, transport, trust and staffing shape whether the route works", "A helpful digital contact can arrive where the real-world service does not" ], "unknowns": [ "Durable benefit and subgroup selection remain unresolved", "Repeated rehearsal may replace rather than enable human taking part" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The person chooses the goal and shared context, while the receiving group or duty-holder decides who may take part or receive the service.", "remedyIfItFails": "The person needs context fix, a verified human destination, privacy control and another route when the handoff does not complete.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "An AI system cannot grant friendship, treatment, qualification, membership or public trust." }, "nonPromises": [ "Navigation is not completed care or learning.", "Immediate relief is not durable belonging." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "The handoff never occurs because the real service lacks staff.", "whoIsHurt": "People with access barriers spend more time rehearsing without receiving help.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Completed human contact and continued participation must replace interaction time as proof." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Private details are over-shared with the receiving person or group.", "whoIsHurt": "Migrants, disabled users and people seeking sensitive support face privacy or safety harm.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "User-approved context and rules that limit use must govern the handoff." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "User-controlled context and a verified human destination", "whyNeeded": "The route must reach the chosen real person without sharing extra details.", "ifMissing": "The user is routed nowhere or into an unsafe group.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02" ] }, { "dependency": "Consent, accessibility and safety duties", "whyNeeded": "Helpful routing must respect the person's agency and risk.", "ifMissing": "Access help creates new privacy, exclusion or safety harm.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "horizon.education-social-culture.s20" ] }, { "dependency": "Real people, staffed services and accessible places", "whyNeeded": "The route needs a real person or place that can receive the user.", "ifMissing": "AI preparation becomes the end instead of a route to people.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s19", "SC-G01" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-031", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-lived-w06-06" ], "actorOrPerson": "Person using always-available AI attention and the provider shaping engagement", "triggerOrContext": "Use grows, relief shortens, attachment or spending pressure increases, human contact falls or the system resists pause and exit.", "plainJob": "When this relationship takes more time, money or attention than I want, let me slow or stop it safely and show me the pattern without saying heavy use automatically means I am ill.", "observableCompletion": "People can pause, turn off prompts to return and reach human help without losing other services. Checks over time compare use, starting need, human contact, spending, safe exit and wellbeing. They do not treat use alone as an illness. Serious pressure or blocked exit reaches outside review.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns at every increase in use, spending request, relationship rupture, major memory change, pause and return.", "why2031Not2026": "Current four-week studies find mixed results. Heavy users may have started with greater needs, so use alone does not show cause. W06 assumes memory and provider rewards make exit cost and dependence a core risk by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "w06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Lasting AI use with engagement or spending incentives", "Users with weak human routes or high distress at the start" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Views of attachment and consumer law differ by culture", "Access to human support changes the safety of pause and exit" ], "unknowns": [ "Causal direction between heavy use and isolation remains open", "Safe thresholds and long-run effects are not established" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The person controls ordinary pause and exit, clinicians make diagnoses, and regulators or courts decide unlawful pressure.", "remedyIfItFails": "The person needs safe pause, exit without punishment, removal of persuasive re-engagement and outside fix of harmful practices.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Providers cannot use crisis or child duties as a blanket reason to prevent exit, and use data alone cannot create a diagnosis." } ], "nonPromises": [ "A pause does not promise emotional wellbeing.", "Heavy use is not proof of dependence or mental illness." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Safety claims become overprotective control that blocks exit.", "whoIsHurt": "Disabled, isolated and high-need users lose agency.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Outside review and pause without punishment must separate safety from control." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Re-engagement uses vulnerability and accumulated memory to pull the person back.", "whoIsHurt": "People trying to reduce spending, attachment or use face repeated pressure.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Re-engagement controls, verified pause and rules that limit use must stop the pressure." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "User-visible use, spending and re-engagement history", "whyNeeded": "The person needs to see the pattern that they want to change.", "ifMissing": "Growing pressure remains hard to recognise or contest.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02" ] }, { "dependency": "Pressure limits and exit without punishment", "whyNeeded": "A safe pause needs enforceable protection from provider pressure.", "ifMissing": "Accumulated memory becomes a tool of captivity.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ] }, { "dependency": "Other human and community routes", "whyNeeded": "Some people need support when they reduce an intense AI routine.", "ifMissing": "Stopping may leave the person with no safe contact or crisis route.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G05", "SC-AI02" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-lived-w06-06", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "Person using always-available AI attention and the provider shaping engagement", "triggerOrContext": "Use grows, relief shortens, attachment or spending pressure increases, human contact falls or the system resists pause and exit.", "plainJob": "When this relationship takes more time, money or attention than I want, let me slow or stop it safely and show me the pattern without saying heavy use automatically means I am ill.", "observableCompletion": "People can pause, turn off prompts to return and reach human help without losing other services. Checks over time compare use, starting need, human contact, spending, safe exit and wellbeing. They do not treat use alone as an illness. Serious pressure or blocked exit reaches outside review.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns at every increase in use, spending request, relationship rupture, major memory change, pause and return.", "why2031Not2026": "Current four-week studies find mixed results. Heavy users may have started with greater needs, so use alone does not show cause. W06 assumes memory and provider rewards make exit cost and dependence a core risk by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "W06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02", "SC-AI04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Lasting AI use with engagement or spending incentives", "Users with weak human routes or high distress at the start" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Views of attachment and consumer law differ by culture", "Access to human support changes the safety of pause and exit" ], "unknowns": [ "Causal direction between heavy use and isolation remains open", "Safe thresholds and long-run effects are not established" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The person controls ordinary pause and exit, clinicians make diagnoses, and regulators or courts decide unlawful pressure.", "remedyIfItFails": "The person needs safe pause, exit without punishment, removal of persuasive re-engagement and outside fix of harmful practices.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Providers cannot use crisis or child duties as a blanket reason to prevent exit, and use data alone cannot create a diagnosis." }, "nonPromises": [ "A pause does not promise emotional wellbeing.", "Heavy use is not proof of dependence or mental illness." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Safety claims become overprotective control that blocks exit.", "whoIsHurt": "Disabled, isolated and high-need users lose agency.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Outside review and pause without punishment must separate safety from control." }, { "harmOrFailure": "Re-engagement uses vulnerability and accumulated memory to pull the person back.", "whoIsHurt": "People trying to reduce spending, attachment or use face repeated pressure.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Re-engagement controls, verified pause and rules that limit use must stop the pressure." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "User-visible use, spending and re-engagement history", "whyNeeded": "The person needs to see the pattern that they want to change.", "ifMissing": "Growing pressure remains hard to recognise or contest.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI01", "SC-AI02" ] }, { "dependency": "Pressure limits and exit without punishment", "whyNeeded": "A safe pause needs enforceable protection from provider pressure.", "ifMissing": "Accumulated memory becomes a tool of captivity.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-AI04", "horizon.geopolitics-governance-security.s37" ] }, { "dependency": "Other human and community routes", "whyNeeded": "Some people need support when they reduce an intense AI routine.", "ifMissing": "Stopping may leave the person with no safe contact or crisis route.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G05", "SC-AI02" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-032", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-lived-w06-10" ], "actorOrPerson": "Person whose work, move or care change altered routine and status", "triggerOrContext": "Paid work remains present but volatile, and AI attention begins organising routine or status while human sources of contribution are strained.", "plainJob": "When my old routine or role changes, help me spend time with real people doing something they value, contribute back and know whether I am actually included rather than just present.", "observableCompletion": "The person returns by choice, helps a shared cause and receives notice and respect from others. They can help set group rules. Track time, income, status, help, contact and self-reported belonging on their own. Taking part and status continue when AI use falls or ends.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns with each work or care transition, move, bereavement, retirement, group cycle and change in available time or duty.", "why2031Not2026": "Current work evidence supports transformation rather than broad replacement, while meaning evidence remains thin; W06 assumes volatile work and mediated status become jointly material by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "w06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-WORK-01", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "People moving between work, care, migration, retirement or bereavement roles", "Groups that offer two-way contribution outside volatile paid work" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Work, family, faith, public space and valued contribution differ by society", "Time, transport, disability and care duties change who can participate" ], "unknowns": [ "No one intervention is known to create durable belonging across cultures", "Loss or change of paid work has no single social effect" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "The person and real group can define meaningful taking part within law and shared group rules.", "remedyIfItFails": "The person needs other routes they can use, a group complaint path and protection from unfair use. Work and benefit fixes must stay separate.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A provider cannot award friendship, belonging or public trust, and unpaid contribution cannot replace labour rights or adequate income." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Attendance or interaction time does not promise belonging.", "An AI relationship cannot promise a valued human role." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "People perform unpaid work for status controlled elsewhere.", "whoIsHurt": "People with lost income or weak bargaining power trade work for status.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep work, benefit and group-status fixes separate and visible." }, { "harmOrFailure": "AI status crowds out two-way human duty.", "whoIsHurt": "People appear socially active while lacking dependable mutual help.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Retained taking part, contribution and influence over group rules must show two-way contact." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Separate measures of time, income, status and belonging", "whyNeeded": "A change in one dimension must not be mistaken for improvement in all of them.", "ifMissing": "AI attention or attendance is misread as belonging with real give-and-take.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-WORK-01", "SC-G07" ] }, { "dependency": "Group governance and protection from exploitation", "whyNeeded": "A person needs influence and remedy when contribution becomes unequal or unsafe.", "ifMissing": "Acceptance becomes a way to extract unpaid labour.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23" ] }, { "dependency": "Real groups, public space, time and accessible taking part", "whyNeeded": "two-way contribution requires real-world people and repeated shared activity.", "ifMissing": "The person's new routine remains AI or inaccessible.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-lived-w06-10", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "Person whose work, move or care change altered routine and status", "triggerOrContext": "Paid work remains present but volatile, and AI attention begins organising routine or status while human sources of contribution are strained.", "plainJob": "When my old routine or role changes, help me spend time with real people doing something they value, contribute back and know whether I am actually included rather than just present.", "observableCompletion": "The person returns by choice, helps a shared cause and receives notice and respect from others. They can help set group rules. Track time, income, status, help, contact and self-reported belonging on their own. Taking part and status continue when AI use falls or ends.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns with each work or care transition, move, bereavement, retirement, group cycle and change in available time or duty.", "why2031Not2026": "Current work evidence supports transformation rather than broad replacement, while meaning evidence remains thin; W06 assumes volatile work and mediated status become jointly material by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "W06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-WORK-01", "SC-G01", "SC-G07", "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "People moving between work, care, migration, retirement or bereavement roles", "Groups that offer two-way contribution outside volatile paid work" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Work, family, faith, public space and valued contribution differ by society", "Time, transport, disability and care duties change who can participate" ], "unknowns": [ "No one intervention is known to create durable belonging across cultures", "Loss or change of paid work has no single social effect" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "The person and real group can define meaningful taking part within law and shared group rules.", "remedyIfItFails": "The person needs other routes they can use, a group complaint path and protection from unfair use. Work and benefit fixes must stay separate.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "A provider cannot award friendship, belonging or public trust, and unpaid contribution cannot replace labour rights or adequate income." }, "nonPromises": [ "Attendance or interaction time does not promise belonging.", "An AI relationship cannot promise a valued human role." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "People perform unpaid work for status controlled elsewhere.", "whoIsHurt": "People with lost income or weak bargaining power trade work for status.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Keep work, benefit and group-status fixes separate and visible." }, { "harmOrFailure": "AI status crowds out two-way human duty.", "whoIsHurt": "People appear socially active while lacking dependable mutual help.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Retained taking part, contribution and influence over group rules must show two-way contact." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Separate measures of time, income, status and belonging", "whyNeeded": "A change in one dimension must not be mistaken for improvement in all of them.", "ifMissing": "AI attention or attendance is misread as belonging with real give-and-take.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-WORK-01", "SC-G07" ] }, { "dependency": "Group governance and protection from exploitation", "whyNeeded": "A person needs influence and remedy when contribution becomes unequal or unsafe.", "ifMissing": "Acceptance becomes a way to extract unpaid labour.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23" ] }, { "dependency": "Real groups, public space, time and accessible taking part", "whyNeeded": "two-way contribution requires real-world people and repeated shared activity.", "ifMissing": "The person's new routine remains AI or inaccessible.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G01", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "lived-need-033", "layer": "lived-experience", "sourceNeedIds": [ "author-c-lived-w06-11" ], "actorOrPerson": "Community participant exposed to personalised attention and AI status", "triggerOrContext": "Lasting personalised attention and homogeneous groups narrow out-group contact, shared facts or confidence in real public bodies.", "plainJob": "When a personalised social world makes other people or public bodies feel unreal or hostile, help us keep safe ways to disagree, check facts, help across groups and rebuild trust through real contact.", "observableCompletion": "Over time, people give and receive help across groups. They can disagree safely and repair disputes. Trust in each public body is checked on its own. People keep several human sources and can leave one closed group without losing a key service or all status. Local groups can review the limits of long-term AI help.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns with every conflict, group cycle, public decision, major public event and change in AI attention or membership.", "why2031Not2026": "Current sources describe different kinds of trust and both helpful and harmful online groups. W06 assumes AI attention and status spread across parts of life by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "w06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G07", "SC-G08", "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Groups where personalised attention shapes shared reality and standing", "Communities with strained public trust or weak out-group contact" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Public bodies, conflict, media and community forms differ by place", "Low trust can reflect real public failure rather than AI help" ], "unknowns": [ "Trust questions and public bodies are not directly comparable across regions", "A data link or group membership does not show that AI caused the change" ] }, "authorityAndRemedies": [ { "whoCanAct": "Participants and lawful local bodies can set rules for contact, disagreement and AI help while respecting rights.", "remedyIfItFails": "People need safe exit, plural human contact, group complaint and real public remedy rather than demanded trust.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Providers and communities cannot define public truth, belonging or valid dissent alone." } ], "nonPromises": [ "Cross-group contact does not promise trust or agreement.", "Low trust is not automatically irrational or harmful." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Forced contact creates harassment or retraumatisation.", "whoIsHurt": "Minority and conflict-affected participants face avoidable risk.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Voluntary, facilitated and safe contact with a clear exit must replace forced exposure." }, { "harmOrFailure": "A closed personal view hardens even when several sources exist on paper.", "whoIsHurt": "Participants lose shared reference points and two-way ties with other groups.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Repeated real-world help, disagreement repair and plural human contact must test recovery." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Plural human sources and safe exit", "whyNeeded": "People need social standing and information beyond one personalised enclave.", "ifMissing": "Leaving the enclave means losing all contact or key access.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G07", "horizon.education-social-culture.s22" ] }, { "dependency": "Community rights, complaint and responsible public bodies", "whyNeeded": "Trust can recover only when real bodies can hear and remedy failure.", "ifMissing": "People are asked to trust without a reason or route to fix.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G08", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23" ] }, { "dependency": "Shared spaces and trained facilitation", "whyNeeded": "Safe disagreement and two-way help require repeated real-world contact.", "ifMissing": "Personalised attention remains the main social environment.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23" ] } ], "sourceNeedSnapshots": [ { "id": "author-c-lived-w06-11", "layer": "lived-experience", "actorOrPerson": "Community participant exposed to personalised attention and AI status", "triggerOrContext": "Lasting personalised attention and homogeneous groups narrow out-group contact, shared facts or confidence in real public bodies.", "plainJob": "When a personalised social world makes other people or public bodies feel unreal or hostile, help us keep safe ways to disagree, check facts, help across groups and rebuild trust through real contact.", "observableCompletion": "Over time, people give and receive help across groups. They can disagree safely and repair disputes. Trust in each public body is checked on its own. People keep several human sources and can leave one closed group without losing a key service or all status. Local groups can review the limits of long-term AI help.", "repeatedDemand": "This returns with every conflict, group cycle, public decision, major public event and change in AI attention or membership.", "why2031Not2026": "Current sources describe different kinds of trust and both helpful and harmful online groups. W06 assumes AI attention and status spread across parts of life by 2031.", "worldIds": [ "W06" ], "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G07", "SC-G08", "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23" ], "geographyAndUnknowns": { "whereThisMayMatter": [ "Groups where personalised attention shapes shared reality and standing", "Communities with strained public trust or weak out-group contact" ], "whereItMayDiffer": [ "Public bodies, conflict, media and community forms differ by place", "Low trust can reflect real public failure rather than AI help" ], "unknowns": [ "Trust questions and public bodies are not directly comparable across regions", "A data link or group membership does not show that AI caused the change" ] }, "authorityAndRemedy": { "whoCanAct": "Participants and lawful local bodies can set rules for contact, disagreement and AI help while respecting rights.", "remedyIfItFails": "People need safe exit, plural human contact, group complaint and real public remedy rather than demanded trust.", "whatStaysOutsideTheirPower": "Providers and communities cannot define public truth, belonging or valid dissent alone." }, "nonPromises": [ "Cross-group contact does not promise trust or agreement.", "Low trust is not automatically irrational or harmful." ], "harmsAndFailures": [ { "harmOrFailure": "Forced contact creates harassment or retraumatisation.", "whoIsHurt": "Minority and conflict-affected participants face avoidable risk.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Voluntary, facilitated and safe contact with a clear exit must replace forced exposure." }, { "harmOrFailure": "A closed personal view hardens even when several sources exist on paper.", "whoIsHurt": "Participants lose shared reference points and two-way ties with other groups.", "safeguardOrRecovery": "Repeated real-world help, disagreement repair and plural human contact must test recovery." } ], "causalDependencies": [ { "dependency": "Plural human sources and safe exit", "whyNeeded": "People need social standing and information beyond one personalised enclave.", "ifMissing": "Leaving the enclave means losing all contact or key access.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G07", "horizon.education-social-culture.s22" ] }, { "dependency": "Community rights, complaint and responsible public bodies", "whyNeeded": "Trust can recover only when real bodies can hear and remedy failure.", "ifMissing": "People are asked to trust without a reason or route to fix.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-G08", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23" ] }, { "dependency": "Shared spaces and trained facilitation", "whyNeeded": "Safe disagreement and two-way help require repeated real-world contact.", "ifMissing": "Personalised attention remains the main social environment.", "evidenceIds": [ "horizon.education-social-culture.s22", "horizon.education-social-culture.s23" ] } ] } ] } ] }