{ "schemaVersion": 1, "namespace": "appstore2031/storefront/v2", "editionId": "2031-2026-08-02", "candidateId": "category-002-candidate-02", "canonicalCandidateSha256": "3e7d609fdc3bfe744460ef101132050d392b7143c6b644fa6e8d64f949ea68c7", "fictionalDisclosure": true, "fiction": { "name": "OutcomeLock", "developerName": "Finished First Network", "iconAsset": "/storefront/v2/icons/category-002-candidate-02.svg", "iconTheme": { "motif": "A distinct geometric mark derived from the fictional name.", "palette": "High-contrast spectral gradient.", "shapeLanguage": "Rounded app-store tile with a clear lettermark.", "accessibilityNote": "The name remains visible beside the icon; colour is not the only identifier." }, "storeDescription": "OutcomeLock is a fictional independent witness for contracts delivered by several machine-run providers. Before work begins, the parties agree what a finished result looks like, what harm is forbidden and what evidence the witness may inspect. OutcomeLock samples complete cases, checks outside records and affected-person reports, then signs a limited release, reduction or dispute signal for money already held under the contract. It never invents a remedy after the event or decides legal liability.", "rating": 4.5, "ratingLabel": "imagined 2031 rating", "reviews": [ { "reviewerAlias": "PublicBuyerNia", "title": "We finally paid for outcomes", "body": "The witness caught a case that all four providers marked complete. Payment stayed on hold until the person received the promised repair.", "stars": 5, "stance": "benefit", "fictionalDisclosure": true }, { "reviewerAlias": "ContractPlain", "title": "The difficult part happens before the app", "body": "OutcomeLock followed our rule correctly, but agreeing a fair definition of finished work took weeks and required independent advice.", "stars": 3, "stance": "critical", "fictionalDisclosure": true } ] }, "category": { "id": "category-002", "name": "Independent Proof That Work Really Finishes", "plainLanguageDefinition": "Forecast services that test bold machine and service claims in the real places where they must work. They expose hidden human rescue, broken hand-offs, delayed harm, physical damage and failed recovery, then produce evidence that buyers and affected people can challenge.", "recurringBrowsePurpose": "A buyer, safety body, assurance lab, standards body, regulator, insurer, worker body, outside researcher or affected group that needs evidence stronger than fluent output or supplier-run checks.", "completion": { "trigger": "A consequential capability or service claim lacks fresh outside evidence from a setting, time period and affected group that match the intended use.", "boundedWork": "Run independently chosen hard-case trials, observe complete work and human rescue, record the domain's exposure, uptime, energy, harm and recovery fields, repeat checks for lasting effects, publish methods, costs and limits, and support retesting when the service or setting changes.", "observableDone": "The caller receives a reproducible packet covering completion, intervention, damage, recovery, excluded settings, baseline and follow-up results, test cost and a dated retest rule. It shows when regional conditions match and names any failed claim, responsible operator and correction route." } }, "rank": { "mainChartPosition": 7, "rangeAcrossWeights": [ 4, 8 ], "dominantWorldIds": [ "W04" ], "whyAboveNext": "It ranks above HumanLift Ledger because payment gives buyers and provider chains an immediate adoption mechanism, while protected worker reporting depends on harder labour agreements and non-retaliation rules.", "whyThisPosition": "It ranks seventh because the commercial trigger is powerful and the service has a crisp finish, but trust depends on defining completion before anyone knows how the chain may fail. Contract and payment rules vary widely, and weaker buyers could accept a definition shaped by suppliers. It remains above the worker-led and commons concepts because a pre-agreed payment consequence offers a direct route to adoption.", "couldMoveUpIf": "It could rise if large machine-mediated contracts adopt standard completion events, evidence access and fast dispute windows that protect affected people.", "couldMoveDownIf": "It would fall if human sign-off remains normal, if contracts cannot access cross-provider evidence, or if suppliers game the finish definition.", "strongestCounterCase": "Ordinary milestone escrow with an informed human buyer may capture most of the benefit more simply, especially where one provider clearly owns the promised outcome.", "publishedChartAppearances": [ { "chart": "main", "rank": 7, "worldId": null, "geographicLensId": null, "weightSetId": null }, { "chart": "conditional", "rank": 8, "worldId": "W01", "geographicLensId": "united-states", "weightSetId": null }, { "chart": "conditional", "rank": 4, "worldId": "W04", "geographicLensId": "united-states", "weightSetId": null }, { "chart": "conditional", "rank": 8, "worldId": "W06", "geographicLensId": "united-states", "weightSetId": null }, { "chart": "conditional", "rank": 8, "worldId": "W01", "geographicLensId": "mainland-china", "weightSetId": null }, { "chart": "conditional", "rank": 4, "worldId": "W04", "geographicLensId": "mainland-china", "weightSetId": null }, { "chart": "conditional", "rank": 8, "worldId": "W06", "geographicLensId": "mainland-china", "weightSetId": null }, { "chart": "conditional", "rank": 8, "worldId": "W01", "geographicLensId": "european-union", "weightSetId": null }, { "chart": "conditional", "rank": 4, "worldId": "W04", "geographicLensId": "european-union", "weightSetId": null }, { "chart": "conditional", "rank": 8, "worldId": "W06", "geographicLensId": "european-union", "weightSetId": null }, { "chart": "conditional", "rank": 8, "worldId": "W01", "geographicLensId": "india", "weightSetId": null }, { "chart": "conditional", "rank": 4, "worldId": "W04", "geographicLensId": "india", "weightSetId": null }, { "chart": "conditional", "rank": 8, "worldId": "W06", "geographicLensId": "india", "weightSetId": null }, { "chart": "conditional", "rank": 8, "worldId": "W01", "geographicLensId": "japan-and-republic-of-korea", "weightSetId": null }, { "chart": "conditional", "rank": 4, "worldId": "W04", "geographicLensId": "japan-and-republic-of-korea", "weightSetId": null }, { "chart": "conditional", "rank": 8, "worldId": "W06", "geographicLensId": "japan-and-republic-of-korea", "weightSetId": null }, { "chart": "conditional", "rank": 8, "worldId": "W01", "geographicLensId": "gulf-technology-economies", "weightSetId": null }, { "chart": "conditional", "rank": 4, "worldId": "W04", "geographicLensId": "gulf-technology-economies", "weightSetId": null }, { "chart": "conditional", "rank": 8, "worldId": "W06", "geographicLensId": "gulf-technology-economies", "weightSetId": null }, { "chart": "conditional", "rank": 8, "worldId": "W01", "geographicLensId": "latin-america", "weightSetId": null }, { "chart": "conditional", "rank": 4, "worldId": "W04", "geographicLensId": "latin-america", "weightSetId": null }, { "chart": "conditional", "rank": 8, "worldId": "W06", "geographicLensId": "latin-america", "weightSetId": null }, { "chart": "conditional", "rank": 8, "worldId": "W01", "geographicLensId": "africa", "weightSetId": null }, { "chart": "conditional", "rank": 4, "worldId": "W04", "geographicLensId": "africa", "weightSetId": null }, { "chart": "conditional", "rank": 8, "worldId": "W06", "geographicLensId": "africa", "weightSetId": null }, { "chart": "conditional", "rank": 8, "worldId": "W01", "geographicLensId": "other-material-paths", "weightSetId": null }, { "chart": "conditional", "rank": 4, "worldId": "W04", "geographicLensId": "other-material-paths", "weightSetId": null }, { "chart": "conditional", "rank": 8, "worldId": "W06", "geographicLensId": "other-material-paths", "weightSetId": null } ] }, "salesPromise": "Hold payment until an outside witness proves the complete machine-run outcome really arrived.", "whatItDoes": { "headline": "Outcome Escrow Witness", "summary": "It turns a broad sales promise into a checklist of observable results, rescue and recovery, then verifies real transactions across provider boundaries. Its signed signal tells the existing contract whether the agreed payment condition passed, failed or needs a dispute; it does not control a person's legal rights.", "steps": [ "The parties define observable finish, prohibited harm, evidence access, human rescue and recovery before work begins.", "An independent witness samples complete transactions and checks outside records, affected-person reports, intervention and repair.", "The witness issues a bounded completion record that releases, reduces or disputes the held payment under the prior contract." ], "outcome": "The caller gets a transaction-level proof packet and a contract signal tied to actual completion rather than supplier activity." }, "whyOnTheList": { "headline": "Machine-run outcomes need a witness outside the machine bargain.", "summary": "Machine-run services could generate endless activity logs while the customer still receives nothing useful. By connecting money to independent evidence of the full result, OutcomeLock creates a strong reason for every provider in a chain to care about actual completion. The service could be called repeatedly for new contract types, versions and provider combinations, especially where no party can see the entire outcome alone.", "why2031Not2026": "Escrow and service-level agreements already exist. This forecast requires consequential outcomes to cross autonomous provider chains whose separate logs cannot prove the person's result. The new relationship is an outside witness with pre-agreed access to cross-provider evidence and a narrowly bounded payment signal, rather than a human buyer approving one milestone.", "worldShifts": [ { "shift": "In W04, consequential services can be assembled and executed across machine-mediated actors, making activity logs abundant while a trustworthy finish remains hard to locate.", "causalChain": [ "Automated contracting splits one promise across several operators and systems.", "Each operator can show local activity while the person still receives no finished result.", "Pre-agreed outside observation connects the commercial signal to the full outcome, rescue and repair." ], "basis": "measured-trend", "evidenceIds": [ "src-metr-long-tasks-2025", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026" ], "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceLimit": "The sources support present conditions and directional pressures. This 2031 world, product, name and rank are reasoned forecast artefacts." } ], "whyRepeatedUse": "Each contract class, version and provider chain can change the meaning and location of completion." }, "futureDistance": { "cutoffBaseline": "In 2026, escrow and service-level agreements can condition payment, but they rarely observe a changing multi-system outcome, hidden rescue and repair together.", "structuralDifference2031": "An outside witness becomes a standing party to machine-mediated outcome contracts and signs only the bounded evidence signal.", "essential2031Conditions": [ "Consequential outcomes are routinely executed across autonomous provider chains whose local logs cannot prove the person's full result." ], "notJustBetterAI": "The candidate changes the commercial and evidentiary relationship among buyer, providers, witness and affected person; model quality alone does not create it.", "failureCondition": "If machine-run services remain single-provider tools with a clearly human-accepted finish, ordinary contracts and escrow make this service unnecessary." }, "howItCouldBeBuilt": { "overview": "A rules engine holds the parties' observable completion test, while an independent operator gathers cross-provider records, samples cases and signs the payment signal.", "components": [ { "name": "Completion covenant", "plainLanguageRole": "Turns a broad sales promise into observable finish, harm, rescue and recovery fields." }, { "name": "Outside witness desk", "plainLanguageRole": "Checks records and affected-person reports before signing a release or dispute signal." } ], "dependencies": [ { "kind": "commercial", "name": "Pre-agreed bounded payment rule", "plainLanguageRole": "Makes the evidence consequential without letting the listing invent remedies after the event.", "causalRequirement": "Large machine-mediated contracts can expose standard completion events and dispute windows.", "necessity": "essential", "basis": "design-inference", "evidenceIds": [], "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "ifMissing": "Deliver an evidence report only and leave all payment actions to the buyer." } ], "hardestPart": "Defining completion so it reflects the affected person's real outcome and cannot be gamed by producing the expected log.", "whatCouldBeSimpler": "Buyer approval before an ordinary invoice is paid." }, "harmsAndFailure": { "whoBenefits": [ "Makes hidden non-completion financially visible", "Preserves a dated record of rescue and repair" ], "warnings": [ "Small providers burdened by evidence costs", "People whose service records are sampled" ], "waysItCouldFail": [ "Payment delay for genuine work", "Privacy loss", "Metric gaming that satisfies the covenant but misses real need" ], "abuseRisks": [ "A buyer uses the witness to avoid fair payment", "Providers coordinate logs", "Sensitive cases are over-collected" ], "safeguards": [ "Fixed review deadlines and interest rules", "Outside sampling and contradiction checks", "Data minimisation and affected-person access" ], "whenItMustStop": "Stop automated signalling on material evidence conflict, unsafe ongoing harm or loss of witness independence." }, "rankExplanation": { "whyThisRank": "It ranks seventh because the commercial trigger is powerful and the service has a crisp finish, but trust depends on defining completion before anyone knows how the chain may fail. Contract and payment rules vary widely, and weaker buyers could accept a definition shaped by suppliers. It remains above the worker-led and commons concepts because a pre-agreed payment consequence offers a direct route to adoption.", "sourceWhyAboveNext": "It ranks above HumanLift Ledger because payment gives buyers and provider chains an immediate adoption mechanism, while protected worker reporting depends on harder labour agreements and non-retaliation rules.", "plainEnglishWhyAboveNext": "It ranks above HumanLift Ledger because payment gives buyers and provider chains an immediate adoption mechanism, while protected worker reporting depends on harder labour agreements and non-retaliation rules.", "couldMoveUpIf": "It could rise if large machine-mediated contracts adopt standard completion events, evidence access and fast dispute windows that protect affected people.", "couldMoveDownIf": "It would fall if human sign-off remains normal, if contracts cannot access cross-provider evidence, or if suppliers game the finish definition.", "basis": "design-inference", "evidenceIds": [ "src-metr-long-tasks-2025", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "SC-R01", "SC-R02", "SC-R05", "SC-R06", "SC-R03", "SC-R04", "SC-R21", "SC-R22", "SC-R18", "SC-R19", "src-asean-ai-governance-guide-2024", "src-un-sids-digital-foundations" ], "worldIds": [ "W04" ], "evidenceLimit": "The score and rank are authored judgements over sealed concepts, not measurements of future adoption." }, "grounding": { "scores": { "futureDistance": 5, "needScale": 4, "globalBreadth": 4, "marketplaceClarity": 5, "deliveryReadiness2031": 4, "trustAndSafety": 4, "total": 88 }, "evidenceAnchors": [ { "statement": "The bound evidence describes limited dependable task horizons and unresolved oversight of consequential systems, supporting an outside check on end-to-end outcomes.", "basis": "measured-trend", "evidenceIds": [ "src-metr-long-tasks-2025", "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026" ], "worldIds": [ "W04" ] } ], "regionalVariation": [ { "geographyId": "united-states", "fit": "conditional", "explanation": "Contract, state and human-service differences make the witness rule locally variable; adjacent evidence does not validate it.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-R01", "SC-R02" ] }, { "geographyId": "mainland-china", "fit": "conditional", "explanation": "Identity and outcome transparency may support records, while independent correction requires local proof.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-R05", "SC-R06" ] }, { "geographyId": "european-union", "fit": "conditional", "explanation": "Portability, deletion and human alternatives affect the evidence design and payment rule.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-R03", "SC-R04" ] }, { "geographyId": "india", "fit": "unknown", "explanation": "No bound regional evidence validates this cross-provider witness and recovery mechanism.", "evidenceIds": [] }, { "geographyId": "japan-and-republic-of-korea", "fit": "unknown", "explanation": "No bound regional evidence establishes fit for outcome escrow witnessing.", "evidenceIds": [] }, { "geographyId": "gulf-technology-economies", "fit": "unknown", "explanation": "Provider, migrant and public-authority relationships need separate local evidence.", "evidenceIds": [] }, { "geographyId": "latin-america", "fit": "conditional", "explanation": "Country-specific rights and safety rules prevent one regional contract pattern.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-R21", "SC-R22" ] }, { "geographyId": "africa", "fit": "conditional", "explanation": "Cost, connectivity and national institutions determine whether independent witnessing is practical.", "evidenceIds": [ "SC-R18", "SC-R19" ] }, { "geographyId": "other-material-paths", "fit": "conditional", "explanation": "Local norms, lawful payment routes and human fallback must be tested separately.", "evidenceIds": [ "src-asean-ai-governance-guide-2024", "src-un-sids-digital-foundations" ] } ], "scenarioFit": [ { "worldId": "W04", "fit": "strong", "reason": "Machine-mediated provider chains create a recurring need to connect commercial release to independently observed end-to-end completion." } ], "resolutionCriteria": [ "Independent reviewers reproduce release or dispute decisions from the same packet.", "Affected-person non-completion can overturn a provider-only activity record.", "Every signal names its scope, expiry, rescue, harm and recovery evidence." ] }, "evidenceLimitations": "Observed and published evidence grounds the world pressures and present constraints. The category, product, developer, reviews, rating and exact rank are fictional forecasts and may be wrong.", "datedCollisionAudit": { "cutoff": "2026-08-02", "auditedAt": "2026-08-03T23:59:59.000Z", "verdict": "future-dependent-no-collision-found", "publicReason": "no-material-collision-found. This is a search-engine snapshot, not a trademark search, company-register search, domain search, app-store clearance or legal opinion. Search indexing and regional coverage are incomplete, and a no-material-collision-found verdict means only that this bounded search did not surface a material exact-name use. It does not establish availability or clearance.", "closestMatches": [] }, "evidenceReferences": [ { "kind": "source", "id": "src-metr-long-tasks-2025", "title": "Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks", "publisher": "Model Evaluation and Threat Research", "url": "https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/", "publishedAt": "2025-03-19", "accessedAt": "2026-08-02", "limitations": "The task set is weighted toward software and research work. A historical doubling trend does not guarantee continuation or transfer to 30-day, multi-stakeholder assignments.", "evidenceClass": "measured-trend", "geographies": [ "global" ] }, { "kind": "source", "id": "src-international-ai-safety-report-2026", "title": "International AI Safety Report 2026", "publisher": "International AI Safety Report", "url": "https://internationalaisafetyreport.org/publication/international-ai-safety-report-2026", "publishedAt": "2026-02-03", "accessedAt": "2026-08-02", "limitations": "The report synthesises evidence available through December 2025, so later capability claims require separate checks. Trend continuation and risk scenarios are not forecasts, and benchmark progress may not transfer to messy real work.", "evidenceClass": "measured-trend", "geographies": [ "global" ] }, { "kind": "source", "id": "SC-R01", "title": "Our Epidemic of Loneliness and Isolation", "publisher": "United States Department of Health and Human Services, Office of the Surgeon General", "url": "https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/surgeon-general-social-connection-advisory.pdf", "publishedAt": "2023-05-02", "accessedAt": "2026-08-02", "limitations": "Many reported health relationships are observational associations; United States evidence is not globally representative.", "evidenceClass": "measured-trend", "geographies": [ "United States" ] }, { "kind": "source", "id": "SC-R02", "title": "Families and living arrangements: 2022 data", "publisher": "United States Census Bureau", "url": "https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2024/families-living-arrangements.html", "publishedAt": "2024-05-30", "accessedAt": "2026-08-02", "limitations": "Household composition is not a measure of loneliness, relationship quality or voluntary solitude.", "evidenceClass": "measured-trend", "geographies": [ "United States" ] }, { "kind": "source", "id": "SC-R05", "title": "Communique on Major Data of the 1% National Population Sample Survey in 2025", "publisher": "National Bureau of Statistics of China", "url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202605/t20260522_1963789.html", "publishedAt": "2026-05-22", "accessedAt": "2026-08-02", "limitations": "Demographic, household and migration indicators do not directly measure loneliness, belonging or relationship quality.", "evidenceClass": "measured-trend", "geographies": [ "China" ] }, { "kind": "source", "id": "SC-R06", "title": "China targets wider mutual-aid eldercare coverage by 2030", "publisher": "State Council of the People's Republic of China", "url": "https://english.www.gov.cn/news/202604/29/content_WS69f1abd1c6d00ca5f9a0ab18.html", "publishedAt": "2026-04-29", "accessedAt": "2026-08-02", "limitations": "A target is not proof of implementation, equitable access, service quality or social-connection outcomes.", "evidenceClass": "policy-intent", "geographies": [ "China" ] }, { "kind": "source", "id": "SC-R03", "title": "EU Loneliness Survey", "publisher": "European Commission Joint Research Centre", "url": "https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/projects-and-activities/survey-methods-and-analysis-centre/loneliness/eu-loneliness-survey_en", "publishedAt": "undated-at-access", "accessedAt": "2026-08-02", "limitations": "Online 2022 survey; response and sampling differences limit exact comparisons between countries.", "evidenceClass": "measured-trend", "geographies": [ "European Union member states surveyed in 2022" ] }, { "kind": "source", "id": "SC-R04", "title": "Household composition statistics", "publisher": "Eurostat", "url": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/SEPDF/cache/29071.pdf", "publishedAt": "undated-at-access", "accessedAt": "2026-08-02", "limitations": "Household form does not measure loneliness or belonging; member-state patterns vary.", "evidenceClass": "measured-trend", "geographies": [ "European Union" ] }, { "kind": "source", "id": "SC-R21", "title": "The care society: acting today for a better future", "publisher": "United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean", "url": "https://www.cepal.org/en/articles/2024-care-society-acting-today-better-future", "publishedAt": "2024-10-29", "accessedAt": "2026-08-02", "limitations": "Regional aggregates conceal country and subnational variation; care pressure is not a direct loneliness measure.", "evidenceClass": "policy-intent", "geographies": [ "Latin America and the Caribbean" ] }, { "kind": "source", "id": "SC-R22", "title": "Mental health", "publisher": "Pan American Health Organization", "url": "https://www.paho.org/en/topics/mental-health", "publishedAt": "2026-08-02", "accessedAt": "2026-08-02", "limitations": "Regional treatment-gap and spending summaries are not current service-capacity estimates for each country.", "evidenceClass": "measured-trend", "geographies": [ "Latin America and the Caribbean; Americas where stated" ] }, { "kind": "source", "id": "SC-R18", "title": "Urgent action needed to accelerate mental health progress in African region", "publisher": "World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa", "url": "https://www.afro.who.int/news/urgent-action-needed-accelerate-mental-health-progress-african-region", "publishedAt": "2024-10-10", "accessedAt": "2026-08-02", "limitations": "Regional averages hide large country differences; service inputs do not prove access, quality or outcomes.", "evidenceClass": "measured-trend", "geographies": [ "WHO African Region" ] }, { "kind": "source", "id": "SC-R19", "title": "Ageing in Africa", "publisher": "United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs", "url": "https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/ageing-in-africa.html", "publishedAt": "2016-05-04", "accessedAt": "2026-08-02", "limitations": "Older source and projection; Africa is highly heterogeneous and remains younger than other world regions.", "evidenceClass": "modelled-projection", "geographies": [ "Africa" ] }, { "kind": "source", "id": "src-asean-ai-governance-guide-2024", "title": "ASEAN Guide on AI Governance and Ethics", "publisher": "Association of Southeast Asian Nations", "url": "https://asean.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/ASEAN-Guide-on-AI-Governance-and-Ethics_beautified_201223_v2.pdf", "publishedAt": "2024-02-02", "accessedAt": "2026-08-02", "limitations": "The guide is voluntary and focuses on responsible adoption rather than frontier capability. ASEAN member states differ greatly in infrastructure, regulation, income, and implementation capacity.", "evidenceClass": "policy-intent", "geographies": [ "other" ] }, { "kind": "source", "id": "src-un-sids-digital-foundations", "title": "Small Island Developing States", "publisher": "United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs", "url": "https://sdgs.un.org/topics/small-island-developing-states", "publishedAt": "undated-at-access", "accessedAt": "2026-08-02", "limitations": "The official topic page did not expose a single reliable publication date; it was accessed on 2026-08-02. It establishes structural constraints and agreed priorities, not a specific AI adoption path.", "evidenceClass": "policy-intent", "geographies": [ "other" ] } ], "rankingIndexPath": "rankings/category-002/index.json", "sourceReceipts": [] }