Research boundary: Observed evidence, inference, scenario and fictional forecast claims retain the labels used in the source record.

{
  "id": "2031-2026-07-31",
  "title": "AppStore2031 — July 2031 forecast",
  "forecastId": "asf-2031-v1",
  "methodVersion": 1,
  "forecastHorizon": 2031,
  "asOf": null,
  "targetDate": "2031-07-31",
  "evidenceCutoff": "2026-07-31",
  "resolutionWindow": {
    "start": "2031-07-01",
    "end": "2031-07-31"
  },
  "chartFamily": "top-free-iphone-apps",
  "platform": "apple-iphone-app-store",
  "probabilityFloor": 0.01,
  "probabilityCeiling": 0.99,
  "forecastCloseForScoring": "2031-06-30T23:59:59Z",
  "status": "researching",
  "superseded": true,
  "supersededOn": "2026-08-01",
  "supersededReason": "Withdrawn after the future-distance review found that the method produced a continuity-biased 2026-2028 product map rather than a future-native 2031 forecast.",
  "inventoryRule": {
    "appsPerCategory": 10,
    "categoryCount": 23
  },
  "marketModel": {
    "id": "coverage-balanced-global-composite-v1",
    "lensWeighting": "equal",
    "storefrontWeightingWithinLens": "equal",
    "lenses": {
      "united-states": [
        "us"
      ],
      "mainland-china": [
        "cn"
      ],
      "european-union": [
        "de",
        "fr",
        "it",
        "es",
        "nl",
        "pl",
        "se"
      ],
      "japan": [
        "jp"
      ],
      "south-korea": [
        "kr"
      ],
      "india": [
        "in"
      ],
      "united-kingdom": [
        "gb"
      ],
      "southeast-asia": [
        "sg",
        "id",
        "my",
        "th",
        "vn",
        "ph"
      ],
      "taiwan": [
        "tw"
      ],
      "gulf-technology-economies": [
        "ae",
        "sa"
      ],
      "latin-america": [
        "br",
        "mx"
      ],
      "africa": [
        "za",
        "ng",
        "ke"
      ]
    }
  },
  "rankModel": {
    "id": "joint-rank-v3",
    "drawsPerStorefront": 20000,
    "minimumDrawsPerStorefront": 10000
  },
  "disclosure": "All app names, developers, rankings, ratings, and reviews are fictional forecast artefacts.",
  "evidenceSnapshot": {
    "capturedAt": "2026-08-01T16:29:12.261Z",
    "sourcesPath": "sources.json",
    "sourcesSha256": "5f8938ad609a1d7901017251aa20b80621b1ddac42b808db533129c293131867",
    "driversPath": "drivers.json",
    "driversSha256": "49f0876cb8ba7be2021dca63edc62333ab4b9a495a401b05477ec38020c82fa7",
    "publicRecordPath": "public-record",
    "publicRecordSha256": "f48e279f2e44033498603895b76fe2d47a89efec75da9b06debea3618b4829a3"
  }
}